ArticlePublisher preview available

The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

January 2022
Nature Sustainability 5(1)

DOI:10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z

Authors:

Jason Hickel

The London School of Economics and Political Science

Roux Nicolas

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna

Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped ‘safe and just space’ framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32–55% to 50–66%, depending on the indicator. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate ‘business-as-usual’ projections to 2050, which suggest deep transformations are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to eliminate social shortfalls.

Average number of biophysical boundaries respected and social thresholds achieved per country (1992–2015) Average values are calculated from the sample of countries with data for all six biophysical indicators, and at least 9 of the 10 social indicators that span the analysis period (N = 91). Ideally, countries would achieve all social thresholds while respecting all biophysical boundaries, as indicated by the “Safe and Just Space” line at the top of the figure.

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Average extent of ecological overshoot by country group for each biophysical indicator in two periods Country groups as per Figs. 2 and 3 in the main text. If there is no country group bar shown for a given biophysical indicator, then this group has no ecological overshoot in this period.

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Average extent of social shortfall by country group for each social indicator in two periods Country groups as per Figs. 2 and 3 in the main text. If there is no country group bar shown for a given social indicator, then this group has no social shortfall in this period.

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Global performance relative to the doughnut’s safe and just space, on the basis of the biophysical boundaries and social thresholds measured in this study a, 1992. b, 2015. Dark green circles show the ecological ceiling and social foundation, which encompass the doughnut of social and planetary boundaries. The blue wedges show average population-weighted social performance relative to each social threshold. The green wedges show total resource use relative to each global biophysical boundary, starting from the outer edge of the social foundation. Red wedges show shortfalls below social thresholds or overshoot beyond biophysical boundaries. Grey wedges show indicators with missing data.

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Number of social thresholds achieved versus number of biophysical boundaries transgressed by countries over time, 1992–2015 Country performance is divided into six sections on the basis of the average number of social thresholds achieved (high, middle and low shortfall) and the average number of biophysical boundaries transgressed (low and high overshoot). Circles indicate performance at the end of the analysis period (in 2011–2015) and are sized according to population. Country paths are shown in five-year average increments. Countries are colour coded relative to their performance at the start of the analysis period (in 1992–1995) clockwise from top right: low shortfall–high overshoot (purple); middle shortfall–high overshoot (blue); high shortfall–high overshoot (brown); high shortfall–low overshoot (orange); middle shortfall–low overshoot (green). Only countries with data for all six biophysical indicators and at least nine of the ten social indicators are shown (N = 91). Ideally, countries would be in the doughnut located in the top left corner.

…

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Articles

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z

1Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. 2Doughnut Economics Action Lab, Oxford, UK.

3Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 4International Inequalities Institute, London

School of Economics, London, UK. 5Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life

Sciences, Vienna, Austria. ✉e-mail: a.l.fanning@leeds.ac.uk

The doughnut-shaped ‘safe and just space’ framework (also

called the ‘doughnut of social and planetary boundaries’) has

received widespread attention as a holistic tool for envision-

ing human development on a stable and resilient planet1,2. However,

despite the urgent need to define, and move towards, a safe and just

future3, little is known about the pathways of countries over time

with respect to the multi-dimensional social and ecological goals of

the doughnut. This article advances integrated global sustainability

research by assessing whether any countries have lived within the

doughnut in recent decades, or are on track to do so in the future,

on the basis of current trends.

The doughnut combines two core concepts: (1) an ecological

ceiling that avoids critical planetary degradation, which is informed

by the planetary boundaries framework for Earth-system stability4;

and (2) a sufficient social foundation that avoids critical human

deprivation, which is closely aligned with the 12 social priorities of

the Sustainable Development Goals5. The doughnut visualizes the

goal of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the liv-

ing planet6.

Empirical research that combines social and biophysical indica-

tors in the doughnut framework is maturing, and the framework

has been applied to evaluate the performance of cities7,8, regions9,10,

countries2,11,12 and the world as a whole1,6. In general, places that do

well in terms of social achievement use resources at unsustainable

levels, while places that use resources sustainably do not reach a suf-

ficient social foundation2.

A large body of empirical research finds diminishing returns in

social performance as resource use increases, and this finding holds

across different social indicators or baskets of indicators, such as life

satisfaction, life expectancy or composite indices, together with CO2

emissions13,14, energy use15–17, ecological footprint18–20 and others2,21.

Modellers have described the impact on planetary boundaries of

achieving the Sustainable Development Goals22, the socioeconomic

effects of CO2 mitigation pathways23,24 and the energy requirements

of meeting a set of basic needs25,26. However, these studies either

do not disaggregate from the global to the national scale or do not

include multiple planetary boundaries and social indicators. To

date, O’Neill et al.2 provide the only global cross-national analysis of

the level of resource use associated with achieving minimum social

thresholds using the safe and just space framework, but their study

is limited to a single year.

There is an emerging view that achieving social thresholds with-

out overshooting biophysical boundaries requires a dual focus on

curbing excessive affluence and consumption by the rich while avoid-

ing critical human deprivation among the least well off27–29. A better

understanding of country trajectories with respect to the doughnut

could provide insights into the type of action needed to transform

unsustainable systems of social and technical provisioning30.

Biophysical boundaries and social thresholds

We gathered historical data from 1992 to 2015 and analysed national

performance on 6 consumption-based environmental indicators

(relative to downscaled biophysical boundaries) and 11 social indi-

cators (relative to social thresholds) for over 140 countries (Table 1).

We also used these data to estimate dynamic statistical forecasting

models within each country, which act as empirical constraints on

a simple ‘business-as-usual’ projection of current trends for each

social and biophysical indicator, out to the year 2050.

The 11 social indicators include 2 measures of human well-being

(self-reported life satisfaction and life expectancy) and 9 need satis-

fiers (nutrition, sanitation, income poverty, access to energy, educa-

tion, social support, democratic quality, equality and employment).

To assess social performance over time, we compared these indica-

tors with the minimum threshold values identified by O’Neill et al.2,

with some adjustments and caveats (Table 1 and Methods). Since

the social support indicator series does not begin until 2005, only

ten indicators were considered in total for cross-national compari-

sons over the 1992–2015 analysis period.

The social shortfall and ecological overshoot

of nations

Andrew L. Fanning 1,2 ✉ , Daniel W. O’Neill 1, Jason Hickel3,4 and Nicolas Roux 5

Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that

could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped ‘safe and just space’ framework, we analyse

the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015.

We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of

countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32–55% to 50–66%, depending on the indica-

tor. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life

expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change

for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate ‘business-as-usual’ projections to 2050, which suggest deep transforma-

tions are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to

eliminate social shortfalls.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY | VOL 5 | JANUARY 2022 | 26–36 | www.nature.com/natsustain

Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved

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