No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications
... The object of analysis will be the sectoral dimension of the respective national industries, based on their aggregation according to technological intensity, as suggested by works with high impacts in international literature, such as OECD (1987) and Andreoni & Tregenna (2019). Thus, the intended contribution of the paper will be based on the re-evaluation of the inverted U-shaped curve analysis estimated in Rowthorn's seminal works (ROWTHORN, 1995;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1997;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1999), which relates the share of industry in GDP to the level of per capita income. According to this curve, initially, there is an increase in the industry's share of GDP as per capita income rises. ...
... On the other hand, deindustrialization is an expected phenomenon that is detrimental to sustainable growth opportunities, as pointed out in Rowthorn's seminal works. (ROWTHORN, 1995;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1997;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1999). From this standpoint, an inverted U-shaped curve of industrialization related to income is estimated, which measures the industry's share in total employment with respect to per capita income levels. ...
... To this end, given the limitations of scope and space of an academic article, this effort focused on analyzing the capacity of industry to contribute to productivity growth in HICs and MICs.Complementary to the works ofAndreoni & Tregenna (2019) andTregenna & Andreoni (2020), we sought to verify the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of per capita income and the contribution of industry to development, measured in this work by its ability to increase productivity. In this way, we sought to add complementary elements to Rowthorn's seminal contributions(ROWTHORN, 1995;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1997;ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1999), which relate the share of industry in GDP to the level of per capita income.In this context, we have analyzed the contribution of industry to development from two perspectives. The first is based on the sectoral decomposition of productivity growth according to technological intensity, based on the definition adopted in Andreoni& Tregenna (2019) and Tregenna & Andreoni (2020). ...
The understanding of development as a process of accumulation and subsequent investment associated with technological progress and structural transformation towards higher productivity activities has historically and theoretically assigned a central role to the manufacturing sector in economic literature, at least since the seminal contributions of Hamilton (1791) and List (1841). In context, this paper aims to measure and analyze the industry´s contributions to development in high-income (HICs) and middle-income countries (MICs) from 2000 to 2019. Its main purpose is to re-evaluate the inverted U-shaped curve analysis estimated in Rowthorn's seminal works (Rowthorn, 1995; Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1999; Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). The innovative contribution of this paper is to verify the validity of this relationship to MIC and HIC by looking not at the share of industry in GDP, but at the contribution of manufacturing to development-measured by structural decomposition of productivity. In sum, the results show that average productivity growth in MICs was more than 3.4 times higher than in HICs. Furthermore, this growth was distributed fairly evenly between the various components of the structural decomposition. Thus, it can be seen that for MICs, the intra-sectoral, static structural change and dynamic structural change components performed very similarly over the period. Moreover, in these countries, a large share of productivity growth is explained by the sophistication of sectors and activities that are not necessarily at the international technological frontier, including in fast catching-up countries as China. On the contrary, among HICs there is a very high concentration of productivity growth in high-tech sectors. Thus, despite deindustrialization movements in recent decades, as suggested by Andreoni & Tregenna (2019), and Andreoni & Chang (2017), high-tech sectors are still the main vectors of industrial contribution to development in these countries. Além da curva de U invertido: desindustrialização e a contribuição da indústria ao desenvolvimento nos países de alta e média renda Resumo: A compreensão do desenvolvimento como um processo de acumulação e subsequente investimento associado ao progresso tecnológico e à transformação estrutural para atividades de maior produtividade tem atribuído, histórica e teoricamente, um papel central ao setor manufatureiro na literatura econômica, pelo menos desde as contribuições seminais de Hamilton (1791) e List (1841). Neste contexto, este artigo tem como objetivo medir e analisar a contribuição da indústria para o desenvolvimento dos países de alta renda (PAR) e dos países de renda média (PRM) entre 2000 e 2019. O seu principal objetivo é reavaliar a análise da curva em U invertido estimada nos trabalhos seminais de Rowthorn (Rowthorn, 1995; Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1999; Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). A contribuição inovadora do presente artigo consiste em verificar a validade desta relação para os PAR e para os PRM, analisando não a participação da indústria no PIB, mas a contribuição da indústria de transformação para o desenvolvimento-medida pela decomposição estrutural da produtividade. Em resumo, os resultados mostram que o crescimento médio da produtividade nos PRM foi mais de 3,4 vezes maior do que nos PAR. Além disso, esse crescimento foi distribuído de forma bastante homogênea entre os vários componentes da decomposição estrutural. Assim, pode-se observar que, para os PRMs, os componentes intra-setoriais, de mudança estrutural estática e de mudança estrutural dinâmica tiveram um desempenho muito semelhante durante o período. Além disso, nesses países, uma grande parte do crescimento da produtividade é explicada pela sofisticação de setores e atividades que não estão necessariamente na fronteira tecnológica internacional, inclusive em países em catching-up como a China. Ao contrário, entre os PAR, há uma concentração muito alta de crescimento da produtividade em setores de alta tecnologia. Assim, apesar dos movimentos de desindustrialização nas últimas décadas, conforme sugerido por Andreoni e Tregenna (2019) e Andreoni e Chang (2017), os setores de alta tecnologia ainda são os principais vetores da contribuição industrial para o desenvolvimento nesses países. Palavras-chave: Indústria e desenvolvimento; Mudança estrutural: Desindustrialização; Países de alta renda; Países de renda média.
... In the 1970s, industry-led countries, like the United States and many European countries, entered a postindustrial society [9]. As a result of post-industry, de-industrialization, the phenomenon of closing factories, and losing jobs became the norm [10][11][12], and this existence has had a global impact [13,14]. Indeed, free trade and the removal of trade barriers have allowed companies to move production virtually anywhere in the world [15]. ...
... Indeed, free trade and the removal of trade barriers have allowed companies to move production virtually anywhere in the world [15]. Thus, companies in developed countries have, primarily to reduce labor costs, moved manufacturing and production to low-wage areas [11,[16][17][18]. This provided an opportunity for China, which was in the process of reform and opening-up, to gradually develop into the "factory of the world" and become well-known worldwide for its "Made in China" image [19]. ...
Industrial heritage carries the task of not only preserving and inheriting historical culture, but also solving the homogenization of the historical area. The culture cannot be passed on without public participation; people are not only creators but also transmitters of culture. Thus, it will be an important issue to direct industrial culture to public taste. This study is conducted with regard to 1933 Old Millfun, Shanghai, focusing on the visitor’s cultural experience, and exploring the public’s assessment of cultural expression in combination with the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. Through establishing an industrial culture quality evaluation system, the results suggest that the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is effective in clarifying the public needs for industrial culture from the tastes of most visitors, and is able to propose a clear development direction for the assessment subject. The research demonstrates a methodology for evaluating the compatibility between heritage culture and public acceptance, weakening the conflict between building designers and users in the future.
... Apesar de consistir em um tema extensamente discutido, ainda não há consenso na literatura sobre as causas da desindustrialização. Alguns autores atribuem a causalidade desse processo à própria lógica do desenvolvimento econômico, que eleva a participação relativa dos serviços na economia, em detrimento da indústria, à medida em que aumenta a renda per capita, sendo, portanto, considerado um processo "natural" (Rowthorn;Ramaswamy, 1997). Quando a redução da participação da indústria ocorre em um nível de renda per capita substancialmente inferior aos níveis observados nos países desenvolvidos, o processo é qualificado como "prematuro" (Palma, 2005). ...
... Apesar de consistir em um tema extensamente discutido, ainda não há consenso na literatura sobre as causas da desindustrialização. Alguns autores atribuem a causalidade desse processo à própria lógica do desenvolvimento econômico, que eleva a participação relativa dos serviços na economia, em detrimento da indústria, à medida em que aumenta a renda per capita, sendo, portanto, considerado um processo "natural" (Rowthorn;Ramaswamy, 1997). Quando a redução da participação da indústria ocorre em um nível de renda per capita substancialmente inferior aos níveis observados nos países desenvolvidos, o processo é qualificado como "prematuro" (Palma, 2005). ...
Resumo A literatura kaldoriana argumenta que o processo de desindustrialização reduz o potencial de crescimento econômico no longo prazo. Assim, identificar suas causas é de suma importância para a formulação de políticas eficazes. Este artigo investiga as causas de desindustrialização no Brasil em uma perspectiva setorial, com base no conceito de desindustrialização pela reprimarização da economia, cuja perda de participação dos setores industriais nas exportações é justificada, sobretudo, pelos preços das commodities e pela apreciação cambial. Para tanto, são estimados modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas (ARDL), com dados de 2002 a 2021. Visto que os efeitos das variáveis analisadas são discrepantes entre os setores, os resultados sinalizam que a desindustrialização no Brasil é heterogênea, tanto entre as categorias por intensidade tecnológica quanto entre os setores individuais. Todavia, os efeitos negativos de curto e longo prazos da valorização dos preços das commodities observado em diversos setores corroboram a hipótese de reprimarização da economia.
... According to Rowthorn and Wells' (1997) basic model of deindustrialisation, confirmed by Rowthorn and Ramaswamy's (1997) extensive research and empirical testing, deindustrialisation in the employment category follows deindustrialisation in the demand structure category. The two causal forces (different rates of growth in labour productivity and changes in demand structure) driving structural change are the foundation of the modern as well as the classical three-sector theory of Clark (1957, p. 492), Fischer (19451933) and Fourastié (1972, p. 192), and at the same time constitute the basic criterion for the division of the economy into sectors and sections (its components) used by the OCDE organisation. ...
... Conclusions from the results of the statistical analysis of changes in the demand structure, and the employment structure The analysis carried out so far unambiguously indicates that in the analysed period in the Polish economy we are dealing with the phenomenon of dualism of deindustrialisation processes. Since relating its results to the basic model of deindustrialisation adopted in the literature on the basis of Rowthorn and Ramaswamy's (1997) research, changes in the employment structure in Poland in the analysed period were clearly characterised by deindustrialisation processes, while changes in the demand structure were still strongly influenced by the process of industrialisation. The result is a decline in employment in manufacturing, which results in excessive employment in agriculture, as the service sector is unable to absorb more labour. ...
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
The paper aims to investigate whether product and technological innovations in the manufacturing sector determined its share in total employment in 1995-2018 and, at the same time, how they shaped the processes of change in the real structure of the Polish economy. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: It was hypothesised that the low level of innovation in the manufacturing sector is a key determinant of the decline in its share in total employment, and the dichotomy of the deindustrialisation process in the Polish economy over the period 1995-2018. THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: In order to realise the objective, and to verify the hypothesis posed, a statistical analysis of the process of changes in the structure of the Polish economy for the years 1995-2018 in the production category as well as in the employment category was carried out. RESEARCH RESULTS: The analysis of changes in the structure of Poland's economy showed that the strongest growth in the total economy was in the production demand of the industrial sector. The increase in GDP per capita was most determined by the volume of manufacturing production (industrialisation process). In contrast, there was a large decline in employment in industry (deindustrialisation process) and no increase in employment in the total economy. CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS:The research has shown the existence of a dualistic deindustrialisation process, the cause of which is the lack of innovation in the industrial sector. This results in jobless economic growth creating a very high level of unemployment, as well as an excess of labour force in agriculture. Hence the need for research into the impact and level of innovation in the structure of the industrial sector itself on its competitiveness. Then, on the basis of these, an appropriate state economic policy aimed at reindustrialisation based on product and technological innovation.
... En los gráficos IX.1 y IX.3 se comparan los seis países de América Latina con dos grupos de países emergentes de Asia Oriental: uno de nivel 1 y otro de nivel 2. El grupo de nivel 1 está integrado por la República de Corea, Singapur y la Provincia China de Taiwán; el de nivel 2 está integrado por Indonesia, Malasia y Tailandia. En el gráfico IX.1 se muestra cómo evolucionó la brecha de la participación del sector manufacturero en el PIB nominal, es decir, la diferencia entre la participación efectiva de dicho sector en el PIB y la que cabría esperar según la conocida trayectoria en forma de U invertida del desarrollo industrial surgida de las fuentes fundamentales sobre industrialización y desindustrialización (Rowthorn y Ramaswamy, 1997;Palma, 2005;Tregenna, 2009) que se calculara en Rodrik (2016). Esa brecha se presenta como una proporción respecto del nivel previsto (según Rodrik) de participación del sector manufacturero en el PIB. ...
... SegúnRowthorn y Ramaswamy (1997) yPalma (2005), entre otros, la estructura productiva de una economía suele seguir una trayectoria de parábola invertida en el transcurso del proceso general de desarrollo. En las primeras fases de este, la participación del sector manufacturero aumenta, tanto en lo que atañe al empleo total como al PIB. ...
Los distintos capítulos del libro ofrecen, por una parte, una
perspectiva comparativa regional de los retos que una estrategia de
desarrollo basada, en gran medida, en una mayor apertura financiera
exterior y una mayor flexibilidad del tipo de cambio plantea a las
economías en desarrollo que tienen limitaciones de la balanza de pagos.
Estos retos se han vuelto más evidentes debido al impacto de la pandemia
de COVID-19 y al reciente aumento de la inflación en todo el mundo, a lo
que se suma una desaceleración del crecimiento.
Por otra parte, en los capítulos se examinan en detalle las respuestas
de política de diferentes países de África, Asia y América Latina a un
contexto de mayor volatilidad externa y potencial fragilidad financiera. El
análisis de las respuestas de política se centra en el uso de los controles
de capital y los instrumentos de regulación macroprudencial para reducir
la vulnerabilidad externa y mitigar el impacto del ciclo financiero. Los
capítulos también se centran en las lecciones aprendidas comunes a los
diferentes países y regiones incluidos en este estudio.
... Indeed, some theoretical contributions (Palma, 2005 andOcampo, 2011;Benigno and Fornaro, 2014;Botta, 2017 and and an expanding body of empirical works (Benigno et al., 2015;Bortz, 2018;Botta et al., 2022) identify them as possible sources of persistent productive backwardness, finance-led Dutch disease and, eventually, premature de-industrialization 11 . As to the empirical contributions, Bortz (2018) shows that there is a positive correlation between the increase in gross capital 11 According to Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) and Palma (2005) among others, the productive structure of an economy usually follows an inverted parabola trajectory throughout the overall development process. In the early stages of development, the share of manufacturing increases, both in terms of total employment and GDP. ...
... Figure IX.1 portrays the evolution of the manufacturing nominal GDP share gap. This is the difference between actual manufacturing GDP share and what we would expect according to the "fundamental" sources of industrialization/de-industrialization giving rise to the well-known inverted U-shaped pattern in industrial development (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, 1997;Palma, 2005;Tregenna, 2009) and estimated in Rodrik (2016). This gap is then presented as a ratio of the "expected" (Rodrik-type) level of manufacturing GDP share. Figure IX.3 presents the same evidence for the manufacturing employment share. ...
Chapter on the impact of financial liberalization on growth and structrual change. Book edited by Esteban Pérez Caldentey, Matias vernengo and Martin Abeles
... Indeed, some theoretical contributions (Palma, 2005 andOcampo, 2011;Benigno and Fornaro, 2014;Botta, 2017 and2021) and an expanding body of empirical works (Benigno et al., 2015;Bortz, 2018;Botta et al., 2022) identify them as possible sources of persistent productive backwardness, finance-led Dutch disease and, eventually, premature de-industrialization 11 . As to the empirical contributions, Bortz (2018) shows that there is a positive correlation between the increase in gross capital 11 According to Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) and Palma (2005) among others, the productive structure of an economy usually follows an inverted parabola trajectory throughout the overall development process. In the early stages of development, the share of manufacturing increases, both in terms of total employment and GDP. ...
... Figure IX.1 portrays the evolution of the manufacturing nominal GDP share gap. This is the difference between actual manufacturing GDP share and what we would expect according to the "fundamental" sources of industrialization/de-industrialization giving rise to the well-known inverted U-shaped pattern in industrial development (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, 1997;Palma, 2005;Tregenna, 2009) and estimated in Rodrik (2016). This gap is then presented as a ratio of the "expected" (Rodrik-type) level of manufacturing GDP share. Figure IX.3 presents the same evidence for the manufacturing employment share. ...
... Indeed, some theoretical contributions (Palma, 2005 andOcampo, 2011;Benigno and Fornaro, 2014;Botta, 2017 and and an expanding body of empirical works (Benigno et al., 2015;Bortz, 2018;Botta et al., 2022) identify them as possible sources of persistent productive backwardness, finance-led Dutch disease and, eventually, premature de-industrialization 11 . As to the empirical contributions, Bortz (2018) shows that there is a positive correlation between the increase in gross capital 11 According to Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) and Palma (2005) among others, the productive structure of an economy usually follows an inverted parabola trajectory throughout the overall development process. In the early stages of development, the share of manufacturing increases, both in terms of total employment and GDP. ...
... Figure IX.1 portrays the evolution of the manufacturing nominal GDP share gap. This is the difference between actual manufacturing GDP share and what we would expect according to the "fundamental" sources of industrialization/de-industrialization giving rise to the well-known inverted U-shaped pattern in industrial development (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, 1997;Palma, 2005;Tregenna, 2009) and estimated in Rodrik (2016). This gap is then presented as a ratio of the "expected" (Rodrik-type) level of manufacturing GDP share. Figure IX.3 presents the same evidence for the manufacturing employment share. ...
This document is a compilation of research studies undertaken by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for the project ”Response and Recovery: Mobilizing financial resources for development in the time of COVID-19”, which was coordinated by the Debt and Development Finance Branch of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and jointly implemented with ECLAC, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the Economic Commission for East Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). The publication has three objectives. The first is to present a comparative analysis of 19 country case experiences in Africa, Asia and Latin America with the use of capital controls. Capital controls refer to different types of government intervention in the financial account of a country’s balance of payments with the objective of restricting either financial outflows or inflows, or both. These representative case studies serve to illustrate the objectives and modalities guiding capital flow regulation. They provide a basis on which to draw important policy lessons and guidelines regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of capital controls for sustained growth. Following a similar logic and using the same countries, a second objective is to provide a critical assessment of macroprudential regulation in theory and practice. Macroprudential regulation is broadly defined as a set of policies aimed at reducing systemic risk originating in systemic externalities, either over time or across institutions and markets. It is shown that macroprudential regulation can be an elusive concept and of limited applicability. The critique covers both mainstream and heterodox approaches to macroprudential regulation. The third objective is to describe and make explicit the relationships and transmission mechanisms linking the external sector to the domestic economy.
... 2.2 Capital inflows, structural change, and productive development: the empirical literature Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) and Palma (2005) show that the productive structure of an economy usually changes throughout the broader development process. In the early stages of development, an increasing share of the labor force relocates from agriculture to industry, in particular manufacturing. ...
... Following Imbs and Warzciag (2003), countries tend to follow an inverted U-shaped pattern of diversification along the overall development process. The ECI may display a similar evolution and to some extent mimic the process of industrial development described by Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997). ...
Recent contributions to the literature on industrialization and development have confirmed that manufacturing continues to play a key role as a driver of economic development. As a corollary, these contributions highlight the importance of premature industrialization as a barrier to economic development and as one of the main sources of the middle-income trap. In this paper, we analyze the factors that may have hindered industrial development in the past four decades. In particular, we focus on the role of (non-Foreign Direct Investment) net capital inflows as a potential source of premature deindustrialization. We consider a sample of 36 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2017, with major emphasis on the case of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) in the context of increasing financial integration. We show that periods of abundant capital inflows may have caused a significant contraction of manufacturing share to employment and GDP, as well as the decrease of the economic complexity index. We also show that the phenomena of “perverse” structural changes are significantly more relevant in EDE countries than in advanced ones and that they may similarly occur across EDE countries, regardless of structural differences in the way manufacturing contributed to their development. Based on such evidence, we conclude with some policy suggestions highlighting capital controls and external macroprudential measures taming international capital mobility as useful policy tools for promoting long-run productive development on top of strengthening (short-term) financial and macroeconomic stability.
... Sejalan dengan hal tersebut, World Bank (1994) mendefinisikan deindustrialisasi sebagai penurunan tidak sementara kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur yang dapat menurunkan efisiensi ekonomi dan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi berjalan lebih lambat (Jalilian & Weiss, 2000). Di sisi lain, Rowthorn dan Wells (1987) memandang deindustrialisasi sebagai penurunan proporsi pekerja sektor industri manufaktur terhadap total pekerja (Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). Sejalan dengan hal tersebut, Bazen dan Thirwall (1989) mendefinisikan deindustrialisasi sebagai penurunan jumlah pekerja sektor industri manufaktur terhadap total pekerja baik secara absolut maupun relatif (Jalilian & Weiss, 2000). ...
... Dengan demikian, deindustrialisasi dapat diartikan sebagai penurunan kontribusi (share) output sektor industri manufaktur terhadap pendapatan nasional maupun penurunan kontribusi (share) pekerja sektor industri manufaktur terhadap total pekerja. Rowthorn dan Wells (1987) membedakan deindustrialisasi menjadi dua macam, yaitu deindutrialisasi positif dan negatif (Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). Deindustrialisasi positif erat kaitannya dengan peningkatan pendapatan dan lapangan kerja penuh (full employment) sedangkan deindustrialisasi negatif erat kaitannya dengan stagnansi pendapatan dan peningkatan pengangguran (Alderson, 1997). ...
Sektor industri manufaktur dinyatakan sebagai mesin pertumbuhan dalam menunjang perekonomian suatu wilayah. Namun, pada kenyataannya telah terjadi fenomena deindustrialisi atau penurunan kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur terhadap PDRB pada kawasan industri yang terletak di luar Pulau Jawa. Fenomena deindustrialisasi tersebut bukan merupakan hal yang pantas untuk diabaikan mengingat pentingnya peran kawasan industri baik dalam perekonomian nasional maupun regional. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis variabel-variabel yang memengaruhi deindustrialisasi tersebut. Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa pendapatan per kapita, neraca perdagangan, dan rata-rata lama sekolah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur, sedangkan penanaman modal asing dan dalam negeri tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur. Selain itu, sejalannya peningkatan pendapatan per kapita dengan peningkatan kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur menandakan bahwa tipe deindustrialisasi yang dialami oleh kawasan industri di luar Pulau Jawa bertipe deindustrialisasi prematur.
... According to these authors, the secular decline in manufacturing's employment share would be the consequence of the faster productivity growth of manufacturing compared to services. As Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) clearly explain, "if there is a long-term tendency for real output of services to grow faster than manufactured goods, but productivity in manufacturing increases consistently faster than in services, then the pattern of employment will shift away from manufacturing into services. The service sector will have to absorb an ever greater proportion of total employment just to keep its output rising in line with that of manufacturing" (ibid p. 12). ...
... See Tregenna (2013) for an overview of this literature.19 See for example,Baumol et al.(1989);Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997);Rowthorn and Wells (1987) andSingh (1977). ...
This paper assesses whether or not manufacturing plays an important role in the process of economic growth, the creation of new employment and the alleviation of poverty in the least developed economies and in emerging middle-income countries. Based on a detailed review of relevant literature, the paper concludes that manufacturing continues to be of considerable importance for economic development, employment creation and the reduction of poverty. Manufacturing is not the only sector of importance in developing countries of the present period. But the relative neglect of industrialization and industrial investment in modern policy debates is not justified. It is a sector which deserves special attention from policy makers and the financial community.
... On the basis of these understandings, the theoretical underpinnings relating to the nexus between industrialisation and economic development have been encapsulated by an inverted U-shape relationship, particularly between manufacturing activity and income levels (Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). These suppositions are grounded on the fact that, as lowincome economies start their transition, manufacturing plays a predominant role in the wellbeing of their societies. ...
... Deindustrialization, which refers to the decreasing share of manufacturing in total employment and industrial output, is another significant factor supporting green development [12,13]. Industrialized countries were among the first to propose green development [14]. ...
Since the start of the industrial revolution, the manufacturing industry has been essential for economic growth but has also contributed to environmental pollution problems. The United Nations declared the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda to make sure that the well-being of the global environment is taken care of alongside the expansion of the world economies. As the leading manufacturing country worldwide, studying the evolution of China’s green development policies in manufacturing has significant implications for pollution management in manufacturing in other countries. This research analyzes China’s legal and policy documents on green development in the manufacturing industry based on planning objectives and actual effects with qualitative content analysis. It divides them into four periods: the exploring period (1949–1977), the formal establishment period (1978–2001), the improvement and strengthening period (2002–2011), and the comprehensive improvement period (2012 to present). Although the Chinese government has made progress in implementing green development policies, it still faces many challenges: (1) compatibility between economic development and environmental protection needs to be strengthened; (2) primarily command-and-control based policy structure needs to be reformed; (3) collaboration of multi-departmental management system needs to be enhanced. These challenges are the primary obstacles to China’s manufacturing industry achieving its environmental goals. The future policies for the green development of the manufacturing industry should focus on three aspects: (1) aligning environmental and manufacturing policies in setting strategic objectives and benchmarks; (2) concentrating on the systemic nature of policies and the interdependence of policy tools; (3) enhancing processes for policy creation, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation.
... In the past, every successful country went through an industrialization process and experienced a high share of manufacturing employment (Szirmai 2012;Felipe, Mehta, and Rhee 2018). Deindustrialization is considered to be a natural consequence of industrial dynamism in developed economies (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy 1997). However, many developing countries have experienced it at an even faster pace, and manufacturing has begun to shrink at much lower income levels (Palma 2005(Palma , 2008Rodrik 2016). ...
Premature deindustrialization is a critical challenge for developing countries, particularly in Latin America, where manufacturing employment lags behind that of earlier industrialized nations. This study examines the different experiences of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, shedding light on the different trajectories of deindustrialization within these countries. We use a multiregional subsystem approach to examine whether the observed decline in manufacturing within these economies represents premature deindustrialization. Argentina’s manufacturing subsystem shows a clear shift toward low-tech employment, with an increasing dominance of low- and medium-low-tech industries, undermining the potential for higher-value-added manufacturing. Brazil, on the other hand, faces the most severe deindustrialization, characterized by a growing reliance on low-tech manufacturing and low-knowledge-intensive services, exacerbating its economic challenges. While Mexico has avoided the worst effects of premature deindustrialization, it still faces problems related to productivity differentials across sectors, suggesting that even high-tech industries may be shifting to lower-value tasks.
... En este sentido, Tregenna, (2016) la desindustrialización es el cambio sectorial que ha sido más sobresaliente en las últimas décadas. La desindustrialización se puede precisar como una disminución relativa del peso del PIB manufacturero en el PIB total, Palma, (2008); Rowthorn and Coutts, (2004); Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, (1997) así como un descenso relativo del empleo manufacturero como porcentaje del total del empleo. Sin embargo, estos factores desde un enfoque kaldoriano resultan ser limitados, porque según la teoría de Kaldor es más importante resaltar la producción; este teórico afirma que las manufacturas son el motor de crecimiento de la economía, para llegar a esta conclusión formuló tres leyes que son las siguientes: 2.1 PRIMERA LEY Plantea que existe una fuerte relación entre la tasa de crecimiento del producto manufacturero y la tasa de crecimiento del PIB. ...
Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio es demostrar el problema de la desindustrialización que está presente en la manufactura mexicana. Marco Teórico: Se presenta el principal concepto de la desindustrialización que ha estado desarrollado por los economistas heterodoxos, en particular por los estructuralistas y en especial, la teoría de Kaldor, la cual ha establecido en una idea de pormenorización sectorial y en función del crecimiento. Método: La metodología utilizada fue de carácter cuantitativo y analítico mediante el uso de fuentes estadísticas de información oficial proporcionadas por el gobierno de México, para la construcción del índice de desindustrialización de la manufactura mexicana y de sus subsectores. Resultados y Discusión: Los resultados obtenidos revelan como la industria manufacturera mexicana presenta un proceso de desindustrialización, al resultar ser las importaciones mayores al PIB manufacturero, también está presente en este fenómeno de desindustrialización, el peso del PIB manufacturero en el PIB total, y se puede observar que para el periodo 2000-2020 no presenta ningún incremento. Implicaciones de la Investigación: Las implicaciones de este proceso de desindustrialización que se derivan de esta investigación, es el deterioro de la industria manufacturera nacional, por ello se deduce la importancia preponderante de tratar de disminuir las importaciones de la manufactura mexicana a través del fortalecimiento de la industria nacional. Originalidad/Valor: El valor de esta investigación es el de tratar de influir en las políticas públicas llevadas a cabo por parte del estado mexicano, fortaleciendo a la industria manufacturera de México.
... Sob essa perspectiva, o fenômeno da desindustrialização aparece como um elemento crítico na medida que condiciona as possibilidades de crescimento sustentável ou desenvolvimento em sentido mais amplo. A literatura sobre desindustrialização que deriva dos trabalhos seminais de Rowthorn (ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1997, ROWTHORN & RAMASWAMY, 1999 desenvolveu-se de forma a constituir um corpo complexo e diversificado de trabalhos que fazem uso de abordagens e mensurações distintas. ...
Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é mensurar a contribuição da indústria brasileira para o desenvolvimento a partir da análise do processo de transformação estrutural entre 2000 e 2019. Tal mensuração será analisada em três dimensões: (i) produtividade, (ii) remuneração média das ocupações e (iii) sofisticação das exportações. A relação entre transformação estrutural e desenvolvimento será analisada em perspectiva comparada aos principais países de renda média. Para além da vigência de um processo de desindustrialização, este trabalho contribui com a literatura ao demonstrar que este processo associa-se à redução da contribuição da indústria ao desenvolvimento nos moldes propostos pelas 'leis de Kaldor'. Palavras-chave: Desindustrialização; Indústria e desenvolvimento; Mudança estrutural; Doença Brasileira; Economia Brasileira. Brazilian Disease and two lost decades: the limits of industry's contribution to development between 2000 and 2019
Abstract: This paper aims to measure the contribution of Brazilian industry to development by analyzing the process of structural transformation between 2000 and 2019. This measurement will be analyzed in three dimensions: (i) productivity, (ii) workers' wages, and (iii) exports sophistication. The relationship between structural transformation and development is analyzed in comparison with the main middle-income countries. In addition to the existence of a process of deindustrialization, this paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that this process is associated with a reduction in the contribution of Brazilian industry to development along the lines proposed by Kaldor's laws.
... Perkembangan teknologi baru akan memungkinkan beberapa jasa untuk tumbuh lebih cepat dibandingkan yang lain. Namun, inovasi produk di bidang manufaktur akan tetap penting karena dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan produktivitas di bidang jasa (Rowthorn & Ramaswamy, 1997). ...
Transformasi ekonomi diharapkan membawa Indonesia keluar dari Middle-Income Trap (MIT) dalam rangka mencapai visi Indonesia Emas 2045. Hal ini memerlukan adanya transformasi struktural dan peningkatan produktivitas tenaga kerja. Transformasi ekonomi dilakukan berdasarkan adanya teori Perubahan Struktural yang menyatakan bahwa untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi, struktur perekonomian suatu negara yang sebelumnya bergantung pada pertanian tradisional, harus menjadi perekonomian yang lebih modern seperti industri manufaktur dan jasa yang lebih beragam. Data yang digunakan bersumber dari BPS dan Kementerian Ketenagakerjaan tahun 2015-2023 yang dianalisis menggunakan shift-share analysis dan regresi data panel. Hasil analisis menunjukkan 4 provinsi di Indonesia telah mengalami pergeseran dari sektor primer ke sekunder dan tersier. Selain itu, sebagian besar provinsi (23 provinsi) memiliki keunggulan kompetitif pada sektor tersier dibandingkan primer dan sekunder. Sektor tersier merupakan sektor dengan proporsi tenaga kerja paling banyak dan terus meningkat serta memiliki produktivitas tenaga kerja paling tinggi namun tren produktivitas yang cenderung menurun tahun 2015-2023. Menggunakan regresi panel dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM), seluruh variabel independen secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas tenaga kerja. Adapun variabel yang berpengaruh positif terhadap produktivitas tenaga kerja diantaranya Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP), Share Sektor Sekunder, Keterbukaan Ekonomi (Openness Economy), dan Pembiayaan Modal Asing (PMA). Sementara variabel yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap produktivitas tenaga kerja diantaranya Share Sektor Tersier dan Rata-rata Lama Sekolah (RLS). Hal ini merupakan salah satu capaian implikasi kebijakan pemerintah dalam Peta Jalan Making Indonesia 4.0 terhadap transisi perekonomian di Indonesia.
... Although in part physiological (e.g. Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, 1997;Nickell et al., 2008;Rodrik, 2016;Škuflić and Družić, 2016;Dosi et al., 2021), according to a stage of development theoretical framework that implies the progressive shift of economies from agriculture to manufacturing and then to services (Fisher, 1933;Hoover, 1948;Kuznet and Murphy, 1966;Landesmann and Pichelmann, 1999), such evolution has been recently related with productivity stagnation and with the well-known productivity paradox and productivity gap between the EU and the USA (see, among others, Solow, 1987;Brynjolfsson, 1993;Acemoglu et al., 2014). ...
... The process of deindustrialization is triggered by the action of external and internal factors. Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) as well as Rowthorn and Coutts (2004) consider internal factors and place special emphasis on increasing productivity stating that "labour productivity growth is responsible for more than 60% of industry share reductions" and that "on every 4.4 jobs lost in the industry due to the competition of cheap imports, on average, one job is created in the industry due to the growth of exports of more sophisticated products". In addition to productivity, the most important internal factors are consumption patterns, trade relations with low-income countries, and sensitivity of income demand (Kollmeyer, 2009). ...
Globalization and the contemporary business environment affect countries' production and economic performance and largely determine SMEs' key drivers. The current development strategies emphasize R&D and innovative governance as the leading determinants of a country's global positioning. In light of this, this research presents the theoretical aspects of factors underlying modern economic growth and competitiveness. The research supports the claim that achieving global competitiveness is consequential upon investing in state-of-the-art economic growth drivers. Provided that they emerge from strategic management, these actions can spur convergence and reduce the countries/regional developmental differences. Relatedly, under the scope of this paper, special consideration is placed on the deindustrialization process and the implementation of Industry 4.0. In the context of present-day challenges, the authors observed that the countries' economic success is the outcome of the historical heritage and the national decision-makers' resoluteness to implement high-quality structural reforms.
... The international literature focuses, essentially, on the participation of manufacturing employment and/or manufacturing value added in the employment/value added of the entire economy. The seminal works that have guided these perspectives are those by Robert Rowthorn and his partners (Martin and Rowthorn, 1986;Rowthorn and Ramaswamy, 1997;Rowthorn and Wells, 1987), and Tregenna (2009). ...
The article brings new indicators that reinforce the thesis that the Brazilian economy went through a process of deindustrialization. Based on the guiding principle of Marx's reproduction schemes, the instrument of inter-regional input-output analysis was used as empirical method. The output multipliers obtained from the Leontief and Ghosh models were used as indicators for measuring structural changes. Critical situations that can show whether there were structural changes in the sectors of the economy, considering both the local economic activity and its relationship with the world economy, are presented. The main results confirm the existence of a deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy. However, it was found that, in absolute and relative terms, the reduction in the capacity of the Brazilian manufacturing to drive the economy oscillated between moments of greater and lesser intensity. Furthermore, strong indications that the Brazilian primary sector is becoming an enclave were found.
... Theoretically, the Rodrıguez-Clare [73] and Markusen and Venables [74] studies have demonstrated that FDI could act as a stimulant for industrialisation. Trade (% of GDP) proxy for trade openness (TRD) could serve as a channel of technological spillovers, which can boost production and, as a result, catalyse industrialisation [75][76][77]. Trade openness exposes firms and businesses to the latest goods/ technologies and also presents the opportunity to acquire them [78]. ...
This study examines the convergence club in industrialisation by using an algorithm developed by Phillips and Sul. We used 183 countries for the period between 2000 and 2018. We also investigated the dynamics of the determinants possibly driving the convergence/divergence clubs of the countries. The convergence algorithm results reveal that there is divergence in industrialisation for the overall sample, which implies that less industrialised economies are not catching up with the industrialised economies within the sample period. The club merging algorithm results identified six final clubs of which economic, demographic, governance and geographic variables play a significant role in the likelihood of a country belonging to a particular final club. This study found that globally, the process of convergence in the industrialisation process is yet to echo desirable emanations of industrial/manufacturing policies sharing similar features, but the narrative seems to be different when the algorithm forms clubs.
... The North-South model is a seemingly accurate description of the structural economic changes in OECD countries starting from the 1970s. The literature defines the phenomenon known as "deindustrialization" as the occurrence of three important labor market developments in OECD countries over the past few decades: (i) the significant increase in the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers, (ii) the persistently high unemployment levels in Europe and (iii) the drastic contraction of relative and absolute manufacturing employment across OECD countries (Saeger 1997;Rowthorn and Ramaswamy 1997). The process of deindustrialization of the North fueled by the export of labor-intensive (i.e. ...
The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality.
... A segunda variável é a participação da indústria no emprego, tendo o intuito de captar possíveis relações da indústria com a desigualdade e a pobreza. Esta é uma das medidas mais tradicionais de (des)industrialização (ROWTHORN; RAMASWAMY, 1997). Vale ressalvar que é aqui reconhecida a crítica de Tregenna (2009) quanto ao uso somente do emprego formal para caracterizar tal processo. ...
Este estudo investiga relações de curto e longo prazos entre desigualdade de renda, pobreza, crescimento econômico e participação da indústria no emprego no Brasil com dados de 1980 a 2010. Para isso, foram estimados modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas (ARDL) com o objetivo de avaliar como a indústria afeta desigualdade e pobreza e testar três hipóteses tradicionais da literatura: Curva de Kuznets, economia dual e crescimento pró-pobre. As evidências sinalizam efeitos heterogêneos do crescimento e da indústria na pobreza e desigualdade no tempo, com redução dos problemas sociais pelo crescimento no longo prazo e pelo emprego industrial no curto prazo.
... Another source of between study difference in association is changes over time in the distribution of the study sample across the key exposures of interest. For instance, researchers may wish to understand how associations between social class and health have changed across time; yet declining industrialisation in many high-income countries has led to a substantial reduction in the number of individuals employed in manual occupations [88,89]. Thus, simple comparisons of 'manual' and 'non-manual' social classes likely compares vastly different fractions of the total populations of interest, and the characteristics of those in each class (e.g. ...
Cross-study research initiatives to understand change across time are an increasingly prominent component of social and health sciences, yet they present considerable practical, analytical and conceptual challenges. First, we discuss the key challenges to comparative research as a basis for detecting societal change, as well as possible solutions. We focus on studies which investigate changes across time in outcome occurrence or the magnitude and/or direction of associations. We discuss the use and importance of such research, study inclusion, sources of bias and mitigation, and interpretation. Second, we propose a structured framework (a checklist) that is intended to provide guidance for future authors and reviewers. Third, we outline a new open-access teaching resource that offers detailed instruction and reusable analytical syntax to guide newcomers on techniques for conducting comparative analysis and data visualisation (in both R and Stata formats).
Supplementary information:
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44155-022-00021-1.
... In contrast to the transformation of the economy (industry) in developed countries started earlier decades of XX century (through positive deindustrialization and tertiarization with parallel development of postindustrial society), covering the part of the industry (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy 1997;Lorber 1999;Bove 2008), transitional countries, including Serbia, have their entire industrial sector under restructuring (Hamilton 1999;Kiss 2002), leaving the state battling with the negative effects of deindustrialization (sudden increase in unemployment, very low effects of industrial activity, neglected and devastated industrial sites, etc.) (Miletić 2008). During the 2000s this crisis led to the collapse of manufacturing sector, which had been exposed to various forms of restructuring. ...
The transformation process from centrally-planned to market economy in Serbia was discontinuous and continued even after 2000 due to a number of exogenous and endogenous factors. The overall industrial sector was affected by restructuring, wherefore Serbia faced negative outcomes of deindustrialization. Changes in employment structure have found corresponding resonance in regional economic changes, in a sense that not all regions and municipalities equally have suffered from economic downturn. Our assumption is that regional disparities have endured over the years, and had even increased as some indicators show. This study highlights spatial differentiation of economic development in Serbia by positioning municipalities according to the values of regional and structural development features. The research was based on municipalities, as they are the lowest level of local decision-making and investment allocation, and a level on which differences in development should be easily recognized. Shift-share analysis, the method used for this study, provides comprehensive overview of structural and regional components of economic changes and identifies their proportional share in overall transformation. Development imbalance, which is represented in this paper for a chosen period of ten years (from 2004 to 2013), continued to grow, since the political and economic changes in 2000.
... They show the high degree of heterogeneity within manufacturing, between low-, medium-, and high-tech manufacturing and also within each of these categories. As a stylized fact of deindustrialization, the relationship between GDP, the share of manufacturing industry in GDP, and employment generally follows a U pattern relation, as written by Rowthorn (1994) and Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997), between countries and over time. Significantly, not all manufacturing subsectors exhibit an inverted U pattern. ...
The aim of the present article is to further develop the line of research initiated by Oreiro et al. (2019) by expanding the database used to calculate the EQI and the EQG, but also to control the effects of variables other than the EQG, such as the amount of capital per worker, over the PCIG and to assess the impact of the determinants of the EQG, considering both price and non-price factors. Following Tregenna and Andreoni (2020), the EQI will be redefined as the ratio between the share of the workforce in the sectors of high technological intensity with respect to the share of the workforce in the sectors of medium and low technological intensity. The EQG will then be used as an independent variable to explain the behavior of the PCIG of a sample of 47 developing countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia from 2001 to 2014.
JEL codes: C51, E24, O11
Kawasan industri merupakan salah satu faktor penentu dalam perkembangan industri manufaktur pada suatu wilayah. Secara teoretis, perusahaan industri yang berlokasi di kawasan industri berdampak pada peningkatkan produktivitas, nilai tambah, efisiensi, dan pendapatan ekonomi suatu wilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peranan kawasan industri dalam mengatasi gejala deindustrialisasi dengan Model Social Accounting Matrix. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kawasan industri mempunyai peranan penting dalam peningkatan output perekonomian dan penyerapan tenaga kerja yang lebih besar, sehingga secara tidak langsung akan berdampak pada percepatan proses industrialisasi sekaligus mengatasi gejala deindustrialisasi.
Without manufactures how are the towns to prosper? That was the question posed by Friedrich List in 1841, almost two centuries ago, in his famous book Das Nationale System der Politischen Oekonomie. List and his contemporaries in nineteenth-century Europe saw industrial development as the path to greater population and prosperity. Indeed, the rise of many contemporary European urban centres such as Manchester, Lodz, Düsseldorf, Bilbao, Marseille, metropolises such as the Ruhr in Germany or The Potteries in the UK, smaller towns such as St. Gallen or a number of European ports such as Le Havre, Liverpool or Rotterdam can be traced back to the technological progress and industrialisation of the time (Hohenberg, 2004; Lopez, 2022). Above all, however, technological and economic progress was followed by an institutional harmonisation that went beyond the borders of individual countries and is described by Berend (2013) as early “Europeanisation”.
This paper aims to analyze Brazil’s multisectoral productive interdependence and structural change by applying input-output methods and panel data estimations. The main findings suggest a reduced inter-sectoral convergence process in terms of growing service-manufacturing linkages. Manufacturing is losing multiplier intensity and importance compared to services. Most of the total output change in Brazil is due to changes in final demand, not technological change. Furthermore, structural change and interdependence between services and manufacturing do not suggest a growth-enhancing pattern.
New findings present a reduced inter-sectoral convergence process in terms of growing service-manufacturing linkages.
Data show manufacturing is losing multiplier intensity and importance compared to services.
Most of the total output change in Brazil is due to changes in final demand, not technological change.
New data analyzed suggests that the interdependence between services and manufacturing are not a growth-enhancing.
The planet is experiencing a tendency of people to be concentrated in the cities to such an extent that the future of humanity can be considered urban. The intensity of the phenomenon of urbanization creates the need to review the development models of cities guided by innovation in terms of sustainability and resilience. With the world's countries highly interconnected through open borders, technology and high mobility, knowledge is diffused and shared almost in real time, fostering the conditions for collaboration, networking and entrepreneurship on a wider scale. In this context, the urban development model of the innovation districts has been created, with a presence in many countries of the world and with a dynamic that is capable of cultivating the ground for cities prepared to manage potential crises with tools such as innovation, clusters, knowledge workers, in order to offer essential solution for the flourishing of the anthropocentric environment.
The European social model is a vision of society that combines sustainable economic growth with the reduction of economic and social inequalities through income redistribution, ensuring a high level of social security and universal access to basic social services. Some economists argue that the last three decades have witnessed a rapid transition towards a new minimal welfare state, in the wake of the rising importance of services (post-industrialism), globalisation, population ageing, changing family and gender relations. In that perspective, the European social model is more chimera than reality. The author argues that the existing social democratic model of the welfare state is likely to be a response to the challenges social policy currently faces. Furthermore, the social democratic model corresponds well with the assumptions of the European social model. With the transformation of the early 1990s, Poland abandoned its socialist welfare system. Although it is debatable whether current social policy in Poland can be classified according to any of Esping-Andersen's well-known welfare types, changes in the labour market will be crucial for the size and shape of the Polish welfare state in the future. The sustainability of the generous welfare state ultimately depends on the citizens' participation in the labour force participation.
La structure des salaires dépend principalement des qualifications et des secteurs de l’économie autant que de l’évolution du PIB par habitant. Cet article vise à analyser l’impact de la désindustrialisation dans le contexte du changement structurel qui s’est produit entre 1960 et 2020 en Argentine, au Chili et en Uruguay. Ce processus comprenait une re-primarisation de l’économie - un passage de la production industrielle à une concentration sur les produits de base agricoles - tandis que la demande de main-d’œuvre dans ce secteur a connu une baisse significative. Un facteur clé de ces transformations a été l’augmentation du taux d’activité des femmes, qui a plus que doublé au cours de la période. Pour analyser ce processus, ont été utilisés des échantillons de données du recensement national, harmonisés par la série intégrée de micro-données à usage public (IPUMS) et de l’enquête continue auprès des ménages.
Abstract: The article analyzes the profile of the working poor in Brazil based on PNADC data from 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2021. The objective is to investigate the relationship between productive and occupational structure and, secondarily, the role of the labor reform of 2017 in the expansion of in-work poverty. The results reveal the determining role of productive and occupational structures in reducing (or expanding) in-work poverty in relation to sectoral differences in average income of main work, level of formalization, underemployment of the workforce, and proportion of employed individuals in poverty.
Keywords: In-work poverty; Labor market; Occupational and productive structure; Brazilian labor reform.
Classificação JEL: I32; E24; L16.
Resumo: O processo de desindustrialização na economia brasileira tem sido tema recente de debates, tanto acadêmico como público, dado a crescente percepção o da decomposição prematura no setor industrial. Inserido nesse contexto, o presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar a existência desse processo no estado do Paraná entre os anos de 1989 e 2019. A metodologia utilizada foi a Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais e estimações econometricas espaciais. Os resultados mostram sintomas de desindustrialização, tanto no estado como também em grande parcela dos municípios que o compõe, dada a redução na representatividade do emprego industrial em relação ao emprego total da economia.
Purpose: The aim of this paper is to assess the diversity of changes in Poland's industrial sector, distinguishing the ICT section, on a regional basis, and to classify the regions according to the value of the location quotient index. Design/methodology/approach: The article uses the following methods: critical analysis of the literature and analysis of statistical data using selected statistical tools. On the basis of the data, obtained from the Local Data Bank (GUS), the dynamics and share of production and employment in the industrial sector were calculated, also including the ITC sector. The analysis covered 16 provinces from 2000 to 2021. Findings: Analysis of selected variables in the analyzed years confirmed the existence of regional disparities in Poland, the presence of both reindustrialization and deindustrialization processes and the leading role of the Mazowieckie voivodeship in the ITC sector. Research limitations/implications: The research conducted in the article represents only one aspect of the assessment of regional disparities. In the course of a broader, more detailed study, it is possible to conduct research at a more local level and to apply additional indicators and methods to evaluate the economic situation of the regions. Practical implications: Knowledge of the mechanisms and regularities of regional development is the basis for shaping policies that would ensure, on the one hand, high and sustainable development dynamics, and, on the other hand, lead to the reduction of regional inequalities. Social implications: A situation of excessive inequalities can lead to conflicts and tensions within communities. Therefore, one of the goals of the state's economic and social policies should be to reduce regional disparities, in favor of sustainable development and improving the quality of life in the country. Originality/value: The article analyzes using the most current statistical data of selected variables and statistical tools. Thus, it can provide another element towards learning about the regularities of regional inequality in the Polish economy. Keywords: reindustralisation, deindustralisation, regional disparities, location quotient. Category of the paper: Research paper.
Technological changes have significant transformative effects on economic activities. The waves of technological innovations in transport and ICT have provided opportunities for globalisation. Malaysia has levied the first unbundling-enabled by lowering of transport costs-to industrialise for five decades. The ICT-driven second unbundling is proving to be more challenging for the country's manufacturing competitiveness. Weaknesses in the linkages within the technology-services-GVC nexus is a structural weakness that needs to be overcome. This is crucial for effective participation in the third-unbundling.
The goal of this essay is to assess how structural transformation indicators affect economic vulnerability of resource-rich countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from 26 nations covering the period from 1996 to 2020, we estimate a linear model with the FM-OLS method. Overall, our findings indicate that while industrial employment has an amplifying effect on vulnerability, employment in the service sector, industrial value added, and value contributed in the service sector all contribute little to lessening economic vulnerability. Our findings hold up well to changes in estimating methodology (PCSE). By taking into account the distinctive features of the CFA Franc and non-CFA Franc monetary zones, sensitivity is evaluated. Therefore, we advocate for the creation of an institutional framework that places special emphasis on vocational training, so that industrial employment is no longer restricted to manoeuvring tasks, on the efficient distribution of NR rents, and on the relentless fight against corruption and embezzlement of public funds, which slow down the process of structural transformation and, consequently, of creating strong shock-resistant economies. These measures need to be stepped up in the Franc zone countries, which, according to the study, are performing less well than other monetary systems.
JEL code: F630, O110, O130, L510.
The rapid evolution of digital technologies and the increased integration between them mark the beginning of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, also called Industry 4.0 or Advanced Manufacturing, which tends to increase the share of modern services in GDP. In the context of this revolution, which is still in dissemination, the world was surprised by the Covid-19 pandemic and its repercussions, with possible implications still unknown to the productive structure of countries, the Global Value Chains, and international trade. Facing this revolution and such an adverse scenario this thesis aims to identify and quantify the contribution of sectors with higher potential for generating and/or implementing Industry 4.0 innovations and with greater relevance for economic growth and development in determining the occupational structure and the episodes of growth and contraction of the Brazilian economy, between 1950 and 2020. For this purpose, this research proposes two definitions of the modern-productive sector, built from the structuralist, neo-Schumpeterian, and Marxian/Marxist frameworks, as well as from the Brazilian economy sectoral indicators (multiplier effects, linkage effects, and key sector), to specify, at the level of 12 and of 67 sectors, which activities effectively contribute to the country's growth and development due to their (actual or potential) characteristics. This study is exploratory and descriptive bibliographic research, with a quantitative and qualitative approach, based on a theoretical framework centered on the importance of the productive structure for the performance of economies and the participation of the State in the creation and maintenance of competitiveness in strategic sectors. The empirical approach rested on the logit model application between 1951 and 2019 and, on the analysis of selected data on the Brazilian productive and occupational structure between 1950 and 2020, essential for building the modern-productive sector definition. Among the results of the empirical investigation, stand out the main determinants of growth episodes (the existence of a development policy, an increase in the participation of the modern-productive industrial sector in the GDP, a reduction of the technology gap, and an increase in the investment rate) and the main determinants of contraction episodes (an increase in the technology gap, a fall in the share of the agricultural sector and modern-productive industry in GDP, a decline in the investment rate, and a retraction of the world economy). The results also showed a divergence between theory and practice in the approaches that point to the modern service sectors or agriculture sector as engines of the growth process, just as the reduction of the State participation in the economy. In summary, the empirical analysis indicated that positive structural change requires a long-term development project and, therefore, a State project. This change, aside from searching to reduce the technology gap, would increase the participation in the productive and occupational structure of the most dynamic segments of the modern-productive sectors, due to its relevance to increasing the chances of sustainable economic growth, to decreasing the chances of contraction episodes, and to providing better opportunities for insertion in the labor market, contributing to poverty reduction and development.
Keywords: Modern-Productive sector. Growth episodes. Contraction episodes. Occupational structure. Brazilian economy.
Ekonomik büyüme sürecinde sanayi sektörü özel bir yere sahiptir. Ancak ülkelerin sanayileşme sürecinde önemli olan sanayi üretimi istenilen seviyeye ulaşmadan düşmekte ve ülkeler erken bir süreçte sanayileşme hedefinden vazgeçmektedir. Tarım ekonomilerinin zamanla sanayi ekonomilerine dönüşüm geçirmesi üç sektör kuramının ilk gelişim basamağını oluşturmaktadır. Bir ülkenin fiziki sermaye birikiminin oluşması sonucunda ekonomik büyümenin gerçekleşeceği savunulmaktadır. Kaldor’un ekonomik büyüme ve sanayi üretimi arasındaki pozitif yönlü ilişkisi ampirik olarak birçok araştırmacı tarafından araştırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada sanayi sektörü katma değerinin fiziksel ve beşerî sermaye birikimindeki gelişmelerden nasıl ve ne yönde etkileneceği araştırılmıştır. Bunun için 34 OECD ülkesine ait 1996 2018 yılları arası yıllık veriler üzerinden elde edilen Driscoll Kraay Standart Hatalar Tahmincisi sonucunda, fiziksel sermayedeki iyileşmelerin sanayi sektörü katma değerini olumlu yönde etkilediği bulunmuştur. Buna karşın beşerî sermaye harcamalarındaki artışın ise sanayi sektörünün payını azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Ekonomik büyüme sürecinde sanayi sektörü özel bir yere sahiptir. Ancak ülkelerin sanayileşme sürecinde önemli olan sanayi üretimi istenilen seviyeye ulaşmadan düşmekte ve ülkeler erken bir süreçte sanayileşme hedefinden vazgeçmektedir. Tarım ekonomilerinin zamanla sanayi ekonomilerine dönüşüm geçirmesi üç sektör kuramının ilk gelişim basamağını oluşturmaktadır. Bir ülkenin fiziki sermaye birikiminin oluşması sonucunda ekonomik büyümenin gerçekleşeceği savunulmaktadır. Kaldor’un ekonomik büyüme ve sanayi üretimi arasındaki pozitif yönlü ilişkisi ampirik olarak birçok araştırmacı tarafından araştırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada sanayi sektörü katma değerinin fiziksel ve beşerî sermaye birikimindeki gelişmelerden nasıl ve ne yönde etkileneceği araştırılmıştır. Bunun için 34 OECD ülkesine ait 1996-2018 yılları arası yıllık veriler üzerinden elde edilen Driscoll-Kraay Standart Hatalar Tahmincisi sonucunda, fiziksel sermayedeki iyileşmelerin sanayi sektörü katma değerini olumlu yönde etkilediği bulunmuştur. Buna karşın beşerî sermaye harcamalarındaki artışın ise sanayi sektörünün payını azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
This article investigates the structural transformation of sectors and subsystems in Brazil during the 2000-2015 period, applying Momigliano and Siniscalco’s approach. We employed the official Brazilian input-output tables from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to evaluate employment, value-added, and profits of six economic activities. Looking at sectors and subsystems, we can better understand the structural change and its connection with domestic outsourcing, particularly in manufacturing. Our findings underscored a weaker process of manufacturing decline when we take the subsystem approach. The rising integration of market services into the manufacturing sector explains, at least partially, the smaller manufacturing decline in terms of value-added and profit participation in the overall economy.
KEYWORDS:
Employment; value-added; subsystems; structural change
This paper aims at analyzing the main reasons for the tendency toward stagnation of the Brazilian economy and to discuss a strategy of sustained development to overcome such tendency from a Keynesian-Structuralist approach, more specifically adopting a New-developmentalism green agenda. A sustained development strategy requires the reconstruction of the manufacturing industry not only to meet domestic demand but to conquest a larger and increasing share of world manufacturing exports. This goal have to be accomplished side to side with a sustainable environmental agenda, aimed at decarbonization and accelerated change in the environment.
Türkiye özelinde 2000'li yıllardaki büyüme süreci üretim ve istihdam yapısında önemli değişimleri kapsayan birçok olguyu barındırmaktadır. Bu olgunun irdelendiği temel başlıklardan biri de yapısal dönüşüm dinamiklerinin analizi ve bunun bölgesel ölçeğe ne şekilde yansıdığı ile ilgilidir. Bu tartışmalar ekseninde çalışma, Türkiye'de NUTS-2 düzeyinde 2004-2020 yılları arasındaki üç temel sektörün (tarım, sanayi, hizmet) istihdam ile katma değer yüzde paylarının değişiminin analizine odaklanılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, yapısal değişimin analizi amacı ile pay değişim analizi kullanılmaktadır. Pay değişim analizi yapısal dönüşümün analizi ve özellikle sanayisizleşme olgusunun saptanması amacı ile kullanılan en yaygın yöntemler arasında yer almaktadır. Bu yöntem aracılığıyla, zaman içerisinde üretim ya da istidam açısından sektörel yapılardaki farklılaşmanın, gerek sektörler içinde gerekse sektörel arasındaki değişimi ve söz konusu değişimin genel olarak ekonominin bütününe etkilerini tasvir edilebilmektedir. Böylelikle çalışmanın analiz birimini oluşturan Türkiye bölgelerinde, üç temel sektördeki istihdam değişiminin gerek bölge içinde gerekse ulusal düzeydeki etkileri analiz edilebilmektedir. Çalışmanın ikinci bölümünde ise bu analiz yöntemi sonucunda elde edilen bulgular temel alınarak, bölgesel ölçekte ne tür kalkınma biçimlerinin ortaya çıktığı tartışılmaktadır. Yapısal dönüşümün farklı kalkınma biçimleri ortaya çıkarabileceğine yönelik ortaya atılan yaklaşımlar dikkate alınmakta, yapısal dönüşümün tarımdan sanayiye, ya da doğrudan tarımdan hizmet sektörüne evrilen kalkınma biçimlerini ortaya çıkarıp çıkarmadığı sorusuna yanıt aranmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye bölgelerinde yapısal dönüşüm, sanayisizleşme, pay değişim analizi (shiftshare),hizmetleşme, kalkınma biçimleri
JEL Sınıflaması: O14,O15,R11,L6,L8,J2
In Turkey, the economic growth in the 2000s includes many facts that consist of significant changes in the structure of production and employment. One of the main topics in which this phenomenon is examined is related to the analysis of structural transformation dynamics and how this fact is realized on the regional scale. In this context, this paper focuses at the NUTS-2 level in Turkey, for the investigation of the change in the percentage shares of employment 1 Dr, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O.,İstanbul,
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.