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Low Energy: Estimating Electric Vehicle Electricity Use
... [19][20][21] Another approach to estimating VMT is to extrapolate it from related data sources, such as electricity meter readings. Burlig et al. 22 collected home meter readings from 2014 to 2017 in California and combined them with vehicle registration data to create a sample of 57,290 BEVs-the largest-scale sample of BEVs in a related study to date. Using a discrete event approach, they analyzed the increased electricity consumption after households purchased a BEV and then extrapolated the results into the expected miles driven. ...
... Although this estimate benefits from a large sample size, the results rely on assumptions about where drivers charged their vehicles and may underestimate true VMT if more charging was done outside of the home. 22,26 These data also only represent BEVs in California operating between 2014 and 2017, which are neither nationally representative nor up to date, given the advances in BEV technology and landscape since then. ...
... 20,[27][28][29][30] In the detailed analysis by Tal et al. 16 on the driving patterns of BEV and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) owners in California, data loggers were installed on PEVs in 264 households in California. After 1 year of observation, the average annual VMT for BEVs was 12,522 miles-nearly double the estimate from Burlig et al. 22 for California BEV owners in the same time period. The study also concluded that BEVs with higher ranges were driven further than those with lower ranges and that BEV owners tended to substitute longer-distance trips with other household CVs. ...
... Our model accommodates envisioned improvements in the emissions profile of alternative powertrains owing to technological and legislative efforts, most notably, recently proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards (CAFE) for light duty vehicles between 2027 and 2032 [25][26][27] . We further consider EVs' potential to operate as substitutes rather than complements 28,29 due to increased range [30][31][32][33] , as well as envisioned reductions in the carbon intensity of the electrical grid that mayowing to legislation like the 2022 Inflation Reduction Actimprove the emissions profile of EVs 34 . ...
New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO2e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO2e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored.
This study provides an empirical assessment of how adopting battery storage units can change the electricity consumption patterns of PV consumers using individual-consumer level hourly smart meter data in Arizona, United States. We find that on average after adding batteries, PV consumers use more solar electricity to power their houses and send less solar electricity back to the grid. In addition, adding battery storage reduces electricity needed from the grid during system peak hours, helping utilities better flatten the load curves. Most importantly, we find a large degree of heterogeneity in the changes in electricity consumption patterns due to adopting battery storage that are not consistent with engineering or economic principles such as those not maximizing consumers’ economic benefits. Such heterogeneous changes imply that utilities and policymakers need to further study the underlying behavioral reasons in order to maximize the social benefits of battery storage and PV co-adoption.
Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has traditionally been studied in the context of gasoline vehicles. In this study, we analyze VMT of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) to understand PEV use and the factors that influence their use in a household. We use data from a unique repeat survey of PEV owners in California who were originally surveyed when they first bought their vehicle. Having two survey responses per household allows us to obtain more reliable VMT data and analyze the change in VMT over the vehicle ownership period. The results show that PEV VMT is correlated with traditional factors like population density, built environment, attitudes towards technology, and lifestyle preferences. Specific to PEVs, electric driving range and access to infrastructure, have a major influence on PEV VMT. Moreover, while lower electricity price at home may lead to a higher share of PEV VMT in total household VMT, we do not identify the presence of “rebound effect”. Overall, we observe that factors influencing PEV VMT are like those observed for conventional gasoline vehicles. We find that PEVs drive a similar amount as conventional vehicles, not less (due to range anxiety) as some have suggested. The results have implications for emissions impact assessments and travel demand models that depend on assumptions of average annual VMT for policymaking.
The prospect for electric vehicles as a climate change solution hinges on their ability to reduce gasoline consumption. But this depends on how many miles electric vehicles are driven and on how many miles would have otherwise been driven in gasoline-powered vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, this paper finds that electric vehicles are driven considerably fewer miles per year on average than gasoline-powered vehicles. The difference is highly statistically significant and holds for both all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, for both single- and multiple-vehicle households, and both inside and outside California. The paper discusses potential explanations and policy implications. Overall, the evidence suggests that today’s electric vehicles imply smaller environmental benefits than previously believed.
We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from 4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of -$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly.
What Drives Electric Vehicle Usage?
- Fiona Burlig
- James Bushnell
- David Rapson
- Catherine Wolfram
Burlig, Fiona, James Bushnell, David Rapson, and Catherine Wolfram. 2021. What Drives
Electric Vehicle Usage? Technical report. Mimeo.
Advanced Plug-in Electric Vehicle Travel and Charging Behavior Final Report
- Phev Center
- Davis
PHEV Center, UC Davis. 2020. Advanced Plug-in Electric Vehicle Travel and Charging Behavior Final Report. Technical report. California Air Resources Board.