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Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?

Authors:
  • Geoclastica Ltd

Abstract and Figures

GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-7. For 5 years I have been convinced that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) does not exist (see my previous ResearchGate contributions). Assuming that the global temperature data (surface thermometer, satellite, radiosonde; all controlled by NASA-NOAA-NCDC) have not been manipulated to agree with one another, I WAS WRONG. But the culprits are man-made waste heat and black carbon, not CO2. Did you know that typically 60-70% of a coal-fired power station's energy output is waste heat (thermal pollution), discharged into the air along with black carbon? China has ~1,000 (Daily Mail), and is planning dozens more. Did you know there are more than 1 billion air conditioning units in the world? How many vehicles, aircraft and ships, likewise all belching heat? And steelworks, cement works, factories, home furnaces, etc., ad nauseam. Diesel motors and more than a billion home cooking/heating fires relentlessly spew black carbon. CO2's innocence means that 'carbon capture' is a vast waste of money; in fact counter-productive, as agriculture and silviculture are relatively CO2-starved (atmospheric CO2 concentration, now 415ppm, is still at a geologically ultra-low level). Isn't it ironic that man's large-scale burning of fossil fuels, from about 1850 (start of Industrial Revolution), has inadvertently raised CO2 from 285 to 415ppm, nearer to the optimum ~1000ppm for plant photosynthesis, thereby helping to feed Earth's burgeoning population while simultaneously 'greening' the planet? Reckless 'climate engineering' is unjustifiable, when all that is needed is to reduce energy use (demand), at the local, national and global levels, so that annual growth in energy consumption (proxy for waste-heat and black-carbon emissions), currently 2%, turns negative. A good start to this reduction, and a good example to set, would have been to NOT fly 30,000 people to last month's (November 2021) climate mega-meeting in Glasgow … https://ukcop26.org … which barked up the wrong tree as usual, vilifying life-giving CO2. EVERYBODY can contribute to ending the 'climate crisis', by making simple and painless small 'sacrifices' , e.g. fewer cars, flights, gadgets; reduce home heating, air conditioning, etc.. Meanwhile, transition to fission, solar and wind energy should continue because: (a) air pollution (CO2 is not a 'pollutant’) by vehicles and coal power stations is intolerable; and (b) mere decades of oil and gas remain.
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Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Strong solar influence on climate (e.g. Svensmark 2007), denied by the IPCC (IPCC 2013), is proven by the striking visual cross-match between
published graphs of world temperature and solar output of the last 7,000 years. An obvious temperature lag of ~150 years (Figs 1, 2) is readily
attributable to ocean thermal inertia (high thermal capacity and slow mixing, including AMOC circulation). Climate models fail to reconstruct
20th Century temperature accurately (Koonin 2021)due to dismissal of the Sun’s variations and fixation on CO2 (IPCC 2013 fig.SPM.5).
Remarkably the temperature and solar graphs decouple from 1940 onward, as follows (Figs 1-3): (A) 1940-50 cooling, corresponding to the Sun's
decline 150 years earlier (1780-90) into the Dalton Minimum (DM), is disproportionately small, compared to earlier solar minima;(B) the
ensuing 1950-75 temperature hiatus, representing the DM, is thus anomalously warm; (C) 1990-2020 warming (surface thermometers agree with
satellite and radiosonde measurements and with sea-ice retreat [Fig. 4]; NB all data controlled by NASA-NOAA-NCDC, beware possible
manipulation) ought to have been cooling, as corresponding solar output declined overall (Figs 2, 3); and (D) 2020 was ~0.9C° warmer than 1940,
yet equates to alower solar peak. Assuming the data are reliable, I attribute this 1940-2020 unnatural extra warmth to growth of anthropogenic
black carbon (from burning coal, diesel, wood, etc.; Bond et al. 2013) and waste heat (thermal pollution, said to explain 100% of global warming
by Karamanev 2021 and nearly 100% by Bian 2020). Man’s CO2 additions (since ~1850 start of Industrial Revolution) are innocent, based on four
lines of evidence: (1) warming of individual nations correlates much better with their energy usage (proxy for black-carbon and waste-heat
[BCWH] emissions) than with CO2-based models (Murray & Heggie 2016); (2) changes in CO2follow changes in global temperature (~1 year lag),
easily explained by ocean outgassing (Humlum et al. 2013); (3) starting in 1985, land is warming twice as fast as the ocean (contrast prior
lockstep warming and cooling, Fig.4;NASA 2021), consistent with dominance of terrestrial over maritime sources of BCWH (e.g. power
stations, factories, vehicles, home- and commercial heating and cooling); and (4) since ~1985, the Northern Hemisphere warms three times faster
than the Southern (NASA 2021). Thus CO2evidently did not affect 1940-2020 temperatures (nor is warming by CO2proven for any interval in
the geological record), suggesting its minimal residual greenhouse potential (fig.4of van Wijngaarden & Happer 2020)is negated by feedbacks
(Higgs 2021a). Climate models of IPCC 2013 ignore waste heat and assume much lower uncertainty bounds (their fig.SPM.5) for net climate
forcing by black carbon and co-emitted species than Bond et al. 2013,whose uncertainty range is ~3 times bigger, -1.45 to +1.29 W m-2.
The ~1940 onset (above) of detectable man-made warming coincides with 1935-55 (World War Two) four-fold rise in the rate of world energy
production (= consumption), aproxy for BCWH. In amodel by Arnold 2013 (his fig. 2c), constant 5% waste-heat growth causes catastrophic
exponential warming to begin ~2050, surpassing 5C° in just 80 years; or, with 2% growth, warming begins ~2100 and exceeds 5C° by 2340. In fact
excess warming already began (1940). Hence humanity may face a genuine climate crisis (not by CO2; see also Higgs 2019)unless BCWH growth
quickly falls below zero. The Sun alone would then govern warming/cooling for the next few millennia (until the orbitally-forced next ice age;
Ellis & Palmer 2016), e.g. if BCWH growth were stopped today, thereby ending associated warming within a decade (minimal lag-time proven by
1935-55 energy surge already affecting 1940-onward temperatures), the next 50 years, equating to a 50-year solar lull (~1880-1930; Fig. 2), would
be cooler than 2010-20. Then 30-40 years of relatively strong warming would ensue, representing the Sun's 1923-1958 surge, which reached the
highest solar peak in >7,000 years (Fig. 1). To avoid exacerbating this warming, BCWH growth must be stopped within the next 50 years.
Due to CO2's non-participation in climate change, 'CCS' (carbon capture & storage) is agross waste of public money;it is also counter-
productive, as today's 415ppm CO2is well below the ~1,000ppm ideal for crops and forest growth.By simply shrinking energy growth to zero by
2050 (cf. 5.5% average annual growth for 1966-73 has already shrunk to 1.5% for 2012-2019, OurWorldInData 2021), CO2will stabilize within
decades (cf.IPCC 2014 fig. 2.8a and box 2.2 fig. 1a), at an equilibrium value nearer the ideal. This goal of zero energy growth is vastly more
achievable and less economically damaging than ‘net-zero carbon’.
BC AD
Reconstructed
sunspot number
Fig. 1 (of 5). Warming & cooling for last 7,000 years mimic Sun’s variations, with ~150-year temperature lag (unnoticed by IPCC)
Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Next slide, close-up of last 1,000 years ...
5000 BC 2000
Sun’s magnetic output. Proxy. Ice-core Be10 & tree-ring C14. Resolution 10 years. Red = sunspots (SILSO). Wu et al. 2018
Global mean surface air temperature. Multi-proxy (73 datasets). Sampling resolution 20-500y (median 120y). Red curve from Marcott
et al. 2013. Black curve by Javier Vinos 2017 Javier Vinos 2017, using Marcott data re-averaged, rescaled & unsmoothed.
Purple curve: axial-obliquity decline; explains overall multi-
kiloyear cooling. Rotating the graph leftward, compensating
for this cooling, further improves the visual correlation.
Slant = ~150-year ‘ocean-inertia lag’,
newly discovered Higgs 2020c
2000 AD
Dalton Minimum
2000
Sun’s magnetic output. Proxy, tree-ring C14, 20yr smoothing (plus SILSO sunspots after 1700) Brehm 2021
1000
Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Fig. 2 (of 5). Warming & cooling for last 1,000 years mimic Sun’s variations, with ~150-year temperature lag
World temperature. Multi-proxy (tree rings etc.). 30yr smoothing. Colours = different processing methods. PAGES 2k 2019
Post-1880 = thermometers, world land-ocean surface average, same scales, 5yr smoothing, different baseline NASA 2021
Little Ice Age
Graphs decoupled (mismatch) ...
1940-2020 disproportionately
warm
See enlargement, Fig. 3
Next slide, close-up of last 150 years ...
1000 AD
1958
~150-year ‘ocean-inertia lag’
Time line
~1440
~1610
Sun’s magnetic output, from Fig. 2 ... Brehm 2021
1788
1870
Fig. 3 (of 5). Sun vs Global temperature correlation, last 120 years (enlargement of Fig. 2): deteriorating match after 1940
World temperature, from Fig.2 lower right ... NASA 2021
Dalton
Minimum
1800
1954
1750
1910
~150-year
‘ocean lag’
1900
2020
1940 AB
C
1740
Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Mismatches between global
temperature & corresponding
solar values ...
A. 1940-50 cooling, equating to
Sun's decline into Dalton
Minimum, is disproportionately
small, in comparison with
previous solar declines, e.g. 1740-
50, four blue circles
B. Thus the ensuing 1950-75
hiatus is unnaturally warm, in
comparison with previous solar
lulls, e.g. six green circles in Fig. 2
C. 1990-2020 warming should
have been cooling, as
corresponding solar output
declined (slightly; blue bar)
D. 2020 was ~0.9C° warmer
than 1940, yet it equates to a
lower solar peak (four red circles)
1898
2000
Same
horizontal
scales
1998-2013
'Global warming hiatus'
1985-2020, Land warming
faster than Ocean
Temperature, Land (orange) vs Ocean surface (blue), thermometers NASA 2021 cf. their averaged Land-Ocean chart, Figs 2, 3
Fig. 4 (of 5). Post-1940 excess warming (Figs 2, 3) is confirmed by satellite, radiosonde (balloons) & by sea-ice shrinkage
Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Arctic sea-ice extent,
September minimum, inverse scale
Stroeve et al. 2007
Vertical
scales
differ
1950 2000
106km2
6
8
Temp., lower atmosphere, satellites Spencer 2021
Temp., near-global, radiosonde, unadjusted
Christy et al. 2018
1998-2013 'Global warming hiatus'
19/10/2021, 17:42
global-energy-substitution_v4_850x600.svg
file:///Users/rogerhiggs/Desktop/global-energy-substitution_v4_850x600.svg
1/1
Global primary energy consumption by source
Primary energy is calculated based on the 'substitution method' which takes account of the inefficiencies in fossil
fuel production by converting non-fossil energy into the energy inputs required if they had the same conversion
losses as fossil fuels.
1800 20191850 1900 1950
0 TWh
20,000 TWh
40,000 TWh
60,000 TWh
80,000 TWh
100,000 TWh
120,000 TWh
140,000 TWh
160,000 TWh
Other
renewables
Modern biofuels
Solar
Wind
Hydropower
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Traditional
biomass
Source: Vaclav Smil (2017) & BP Statistical Review of World Energy OurWorldInData.org/energy • CC BY
Fig. 5 (of 5). Man’s CO2 emissions & Energy consumption (proxies for waste-heat & black-carbon emissions) match
Global Temperature poorly, due to underlying solar control
1940-75
cooling &
hiatus
1898-1910
cooling
Sun’s magnetic output,
from Fig. 2. Brehm 2021
Shifted 150 years due to ‘ocean-inertia lag’ (Figs 1, 2)
World temperature
NASA 2021
CO2, atmospheric UCSD 2021
Sun-driven:
1880 2000
World Energy
Consumption
Our World In Data 2021
Do man-made waste heat and black carbon (not CO2) now outweigh Sun as main cause of global warming?
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-7 (6 slides, 20 minutes) Dr Roger Higgs 25th Oct 2021, amended 13th Dec 2021 ResearchGate link
Proxies for
man-made
black carbon
& waste heat
since ~1850
(start of
Industrial
Revolution)
Solar control
of temp.
Temperature
control by human
emissions and Sun
1998-2013
'Global
warming
hiatus’
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ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.