Prediction of future passenger intensity assigning in the directions and time slots

Abstract

This paper is focused on the prediction of passenger intensity on the Ostrava – Valasske Mezirici railway line in Moravian-Silesian Region, Czech Republic. The paper analyses available transport data about passenger behaviour. Data describes assigning passengers to appropriate directions and time slots in detail, emphasis is placed on daily and weekly variation of travel demand. Based on the provided travel behaviour researches, a model of assigning passenger intensity was designed. Travel surveys and available data sources from realized infrastructure studies were used. The prediction is harmonized with local specific conditions and proceeds from travel behaviour in previous years. The obtained assigning of passenger demand was exploited when designing a new operating concept for the suburban rail in the area. A model composition of the vehicle units and the frequency of connections in the respective sessions were suggested based on the obtained data.