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The Quantitative Risk of Oil Tanker Groundings.
Abstract
Thesis (Nav. E.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 1996, and Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 1996. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-124).
... However, the results show that the Fujii model overrates the geometric probability, even more than the Macduff model does [43]. Amrozowicz [14] applied Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to the grounding of tankers, analyzing a variety of scenarios. Fault Trees are used to present the task analysis results. ...
... Chen and Zhang [15] modified Amrozowicz's study [14] by adding the Fuzzy Fault Tree concept to the FTA for the grounding occurring due to error in navigation [48]. Consequently, their model contains uncertainty regarding the assessment of accident probability, which will also be felt when making decisions on the basis of the model's outcomes. ...
... There is no doubt that ship grounding is a type of maritime accident that is dangerous to people, ships and the environment. The causes of grounding are mainly human factors [1,14], sea currents [58], changes between tides [65] [67]. ...
In the global maritime industry, ship grounding represents about one-third of commercial groundings. Grounding is a type of accident where the hull of a ship strikes the seabed, causing damage to the hull. This type of accident can lead to damage to the hull and water penetration, but also to the pollution of the marine environment by the spillage of ship fuel or some liquid cargo carried by the ship. This paper presents a chronological overview of the contribution of ship grounding frequency, where one of the first ideas of grounding probability was presented by Macduff (1974) and Fuji (1974) in their models. Their ideas, such as grounding candidates and causing probability, laid the foundation for the development of future models. After their models, years later, other models continued to be developed; e.g., analytically (Macduff, Fujii, Amrowitcz, etc.) and statistically (Pedersen, Simonsen, etc.). To find the probability of grounding in an area of interest or in a scenario, it is necessary to have the number of grounding candidates and the causing probability. There are different internal and external factors that affect both probabilities, and in this paper, we analyze how various authors approach their grounding models and have tried to show the actual event as faithfully as possible and thus contribute to greater safety in maritime transport. The number of grounding frequency models significantly complicates their selection in practice; accordingly, the review of models in this paper should facilitate this, but also it should facilitate future research on this topic.
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
... Risk modeling = Framework + Models + Process (2) Reliability based verification and validation of system in risk analysis should be followed with creation of database and identification of novel technologies required for implementation of sustainable system. ...
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
... Risk modeling = Framework + Models + Process (2) Reliability based verification and validation of system in risk analysis should be followed with creation of database and identification of novel technologies required for implementation of sustainable system. ...
The vast resources of the world’s oceans need to be fully utilized to benefit human activities' in a sustainable manner. The maritime
industry has made use of the ocean in a very responsible way, but inland water resources have been much more underutilized and undermaintained, especially for transportation. In an age so dire to find ways to mitigate the challenge of climate change and its associated impacts, recent research has indicated that inland water transportation represents the cleanest mode of transportation. This
indicates the potential for an increase in usage of inland waterways for transportation. The use of inland water transportation is
forecast to rise because of the potential for short sea shipping, expanding deep-sea operations, and alternative mitigation options for
climate change. Coastal water transportation is associated with low probability, high consequence accidents, which makes reliability requirements for the design and operation for safety and environmental protection very necessary. Collision represents the largest percentage of accident risk scenarios among
water transportation risk factors. This paper discusses recent work in risk and reliability based design, and safe and efficient vessel
operation in coastal waters. This includes systems based approach that covers proactive risk as well as holistic, multiple-criteria
assessment of waterways variables required to develop mitigation options and decision support for preventive, protective and control measures for various collision accident scenarios within inland waterways.
Keywords: Inland transportation, accidents, risk assessments, vessel safety, collisions, climate change, marine pollution, navigation
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
... Risk modeling = Framework + Models + Process (2) Reliability based verification and validation of system in risk analysis should be followed with creation of database and identification of novel technologies required for implementation of sustainable system. ...
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
... Risk modeling = Framework + Models + Process (2) Reliability based verification and validation of system in risk analysis should be followed with creation of database and identification of novel technologies required for implementation of sustainable system. ...
... was utilized. The grounding Bayesian network was constructed based on literature [18] [19] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]. It shared many similarities with the collision model: the accident occurrence depended on the loss of control due to ...
... The rest of the collision model probability distributions were based on [18] and the ones of the grounding model derived from [18] [19] [20]. The reliability of the ENSI tablet was described with a variable " ENSI tablet function " , whose probability distribution was based on the reliability of the AIS from [18]. ...
When considering the implementation of a novel risk-control option, the estimation of its possible effects often relies on expert elicitation. This article presents an expert-knowledge-based preliminary assessment of how the deployment of Enhanced Navigation Support Information navigation service would affect the ship collisions and groundings in the Gulf of Finland. Experts probabilistically assess the service's direct effects on various factors, which are then utilized in collision and grounding probability Bayesian network models. The results indicate that implementing the Enhanced Navigation Support Information service could decrease the number of accidents. However, a comparison of the model outcomes to the experts' qualitative opinions reveals some discrepancies, which suggest that the elicitation procedure or the applied models might require further improvement. Nevertheless, with the proposed Bayesian approach, the model can be updated and uncertainties in the estimates reduced after more evidences are available later from longer and wider use of the service.
... These studies have quantified the overall risk level of a grounding vessel accident and a collision vessel accident in 1,000 to 2,000 vessel transits. Examples of similar work include those found in Amrozowicz (1996), Goulielmos (2001), Giziakis and Bardi-Giziaki (2002), and Merrick and von Dorp (2006). ...
IntroductionVessel Safety RegulationVessel Accident StudiesThe ModelDataEstimation ProceduresEstimation ResultsMarginal EffectsSummaryNotesReferences
... The minimum cut set is defined as the minimum set of system components. It is a logic set diagram formed in the system (Haegeman et al. 2011;Amrozowicz 1996). ...
In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
Collisions of commercial ships cover the largest part of accidents scenario in waterways. Waterways accidents expose vessel owners and operators, as well as the public to risk. They attract possibility of losses such as vessel cargo damage, injuries, loss of life, environmental damage, and obstruction of waterways. Collision risk is a product of the probability of the physical event its occurrence as well as losses of various nature including economic losses. Environmental problem and need for system reliability call for innovative methods and tools to assess and analyze extreme operational, accidental and catastrophic scenarios as well as accounting for the human element, and integrate these into a design environments part of design objectives. This paper discusses modeling of waterways collision risk frequency in waterways. The analysis consider mainly the waterways dimensions and other related variables of risk factors like operator skill, vessel characteristics, traffic characteristics, topographic, environmental difficulty of the transit, and quality of operator's information in transit which are required for decision support related to efficient, reliable and sustainable waterways developments. 5.3 accidents in 10, 000 years is observed for Langat River, this considered acceptable in maritime and offshore industry, but for a channel using less number of expected traffic, it could be considered high. Providing safety facilities like traffic separation, vessel traffic management could restore maximize sustainable use of the channel.
... Frequency estimation work on channel lead to fundamental sustainable model of transit risk that include factors such as traffic type and density, navigational aid configuration, channel design and waterway configuration and classification. For cases where there are insufficient historical record to support their inclusion, more comprehensive models of transit risk will have to rely on integral use of hybrid of deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic method whose result could further be simulated or employ expert judgment to optimize deduced result [2]. Risk based collision model are derivative for improvement of maritime accident data collection, preservation and limit acceptability using information relating to the following: ...
... This approach has the advantage of permitting the inclusion of a range of potential contributing factors. Other methods, such as fault tree analysis (see Amrozowicz (1996)), provide a more detailed view of how groundings are caused but require a great deal of data beyond what is available in the historical record. ...
We formulate a Bayesian model to estimate the physical risk of grounding during transits into and out of port as function of potential risk factors. We assemble and analyze information on factors surrounding groundings in three U.S. ports between 1981 and 1995. Although the data are far from perfect, it is possible to establish associations between grounding risk and changes in factors such as vessel type and size, wind speed, and visibility.
... Drift grounding fault tree is presented in figure 3. All of the following conditions must be present in order to drift grounding can occur [1]: ...
Models of Ships Groudings on Coastals Areas
The paper presents description of models of ships groundings probability assessment on coastal areas. It also presents assumptions and preliminary results of new grounding model developed in Maritime University in Szczecin. This model was used in stochastic simulation model of comprehensive navigational safety assessment.
... The other probability parameters of the grounding model were based on (DNV, 2003) and (Amrozowicz, 1996). The influence diagrams were constructed and run using the software HUGIN TM Researcher v. 7.1 (Madsen et al., 2005). ...
The paper presents an Enhanced Navigation Support Information (ENSI) navigation service and estimates how its deployment in the Gulf of Finland would affect the number of ship collisions and groundings. ENSI navigation service transmits the ship's electronic route plan to the Vessel Traffic Service and checks the route. In return, the service sends real-time, route-specific information to the ship such as data on the weather, ice and traffic conditions, the destination and possible disturbances on the route. The service has already been tested onboard Finnish tankers. The tanker safety services will be introduced by 2013 to all oil tankers operating in the Gulf of Finland and can then be expanded to other sea areas as well. According to the maritime traffic accident statistics from the Gulf of Finland, a sea area with increasing tanker traffic and sensitive nature, the primary cause of the majority of accidents has been human failure. Further, 40 % of the human failures had been related to the crew being uncertain of the position of the ship. In this study, the effects of implementing the ENSI service are incorporated into ship-ship collision and grounding causation probability models, and the models are applied to estimating the risk reducing effect for the estimated maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. The effects are modeled probabilistically by eliciting expert knowledge and experiences on testing the service. With the proposed Bayesian approach to modeling the problem, the model can be updated easily and uncertainties in the risk estimates reduced after more evidence is available later from longer and wider use of the service.
... Studies done by Prof. M. E. Paté-Cornell (for a more detailed review, see [1]), and Prof. Martha Gabowski [7] on risk analysis and risk management applied to offshore platforms are helpful for our physical risk factors analysis. Another approach is presented by Amrozowicz et al. [8] [9] [10]. ...
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 1998. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 80-85). by Shu-chiang Lin. S.M.
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
In some busy port and waterways, the risk of vessel traffic accidents is increasing. From the view point of nautical traffic, the risk is closely linked with ship behaviors and hydrodynamic. To substantially improve navigation safety, it is demanding to model dynamic risk of ship collision or grounding accidents. This paper presents a method combining Nomoto model and Monte Carlo simulation to determine the risk. The stochastic phenomenon of traffic behaviors is described by the Nomoto model under random rudder angle, heading and speed. The dynamic risk is derived from the final distribution of the ship pitch and the span in the fairway at the next moment. Taking a local segment of the Yangtze River in China as an example, the study shows that the method is novel and effective to assess the ship's dynamic risk and beneficial for vessel traffic management and channel design.
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
(NOAA). The report utilizes a PORTS ® economic assessment methodology developed by Dr. Kite-Powell for NOAA and published under separate cover as a tool to estimate the economic benefits provided by an existing or proposed PORTS®.
In this paper, the results of a scenario analysis are presented using the models developed by the authors in their prior work. Therein an aggregate risk-simulation model of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul was developed giving consideration to traffic rules, vessel profiles, pilotage services, meteorological, geographical conditions, and vessel scheduling. A risk assessment was carried out by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model to establish a baseline level of risk. Herein, 16 scenarios are described as modifications of the baseline scenario for the purpose of studying maritime risk mitigation in this geographic context. We have evaluated the impact of several factors such as vessel arrival rates, vessel pursuit distances, number of pilots, local traffic density, and vessel scheduling practices such as the single-lane traffic regime start time on safety risks. We also present a discussion on the impact of each factor on vessel passages and waiting times at both entrances of the Strait. We conclude with risk mitigation recommendations that reduce both risk and waiting times, and thus can be considered ‘win-win’ from both an operational and risk reduction perspective.
Ship grounding accidents, being one of the major types of maritime accidents,
are significant failures putting in danger maritime transportation systems.
Moreover, the risks associated with those failures can be catastrophic for the system,
society, and the environment. This highlights the importance of appropriate methodology
for assessing and managing the associated risk. Many scholars have introduced a
wide range of methods for modeling the risk, utilizing the concept of the probability
and the consequence of an accident; however, those models very often employ critical
assumptions on the behavior of maritime transportation systems, which may seem not
to be supported by evidences. This in turn limits models' ability to mitigate the risks, as
those simply remain unknown. Therefore, this article has three aims. First, it proposes a
methodological framework suitable for knowledge-based risk modeling, fulfilling the
recommendations given by the Formal Safety Assessment issued by the International
Maritime Organization. Secondly, it thoroughly reviews and discusses all the existing
risk models available in the literature developed for ship grounding risk analysis in light
of the proposed risk perspective. Third, the models that are more appropriate for risk
management and decision making are highlighted and the recommendations are given
to future model developments.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13437-013-0056-3#page-1
This research aimed to identify and map the common patterns of human and organizational causes underlying two types of marine accident: groundings and collisions. Generalizing patterns of causality from relatively unique and individual accident events required a structured and exploratory analytical approach. Two complementary human factor analysis tools were employed to analyse a set of 30 detailed marine accident reports produced by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau. Common patterns of causality were identified for both groundings and collisions. Groundings commonly resulted from a failure to adequately plan a passage, coupled with either a problem locating the vessel, or communication problems on the bridge. Collisions often involved a fishing vessel and a bulk carrier or cargo vessel, and commonly resulted from both a problem identifying the existence or speed of the other vessel and, again, an inadequate planning process. Generalizing these common causal patterns from a number of accidents identifies a range of points at which crews, managers and policymakers can intervene to forestall the development of these accidents. The method developed here may also be productively extended and applied to other accident types and used as an ongoing risk management tool.
Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 1998. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 82-86). by Benedikte Haugene. M.S.
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