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Explore The Big Picture - Forces shaping the future of humanity

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Are you interested in the state of our world? In the future of humanity? Have you ever wondered how the major developments of our time are connected? Are you, in fact, interested in exploring the big picture? The world we live in is undergoing enormous change, and it can feel overwhelming to grasp what it all means, to you, to your family, to your business or job, and to humanity as a whole. Explore The Big Picture takes a deep dive into some of the most significant matters we’re facing today, including climate change, the impact of technology, the development of the world economy, pressing societal challenges, and life beyond Earth. Doing away with complexity, each topic is explored in such a way that it relates to the other topics. Celebrating our achievements and drawing attention to our challenges, Explore The Big Picture cuts through the clutter, leaving readers with a clear vision of what’s at stake and what’s to gain. Using this book enhances your skills in critical thinking, strategic foresight, and interdisciplinary thinking – all vital skills required for addressing complex challenges such as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Explore The Big Picture is an open invitation to look beyond the horizon and challenge your thoughts and beliefs, allowing you to take meaningful action that leads to positive change.
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SHAPING THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY
EXPLORE, IMAGINE, ACT
PART 1
ExplorE
ThE Big picTurE
Forces shaping the future of humanity
Mario van Rijn
With contributions from René van der Burgt
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: 978-90-430-4015-0
: 163
Key terms: future, trends, technology, planet earth, society, power, space, innovation,
scenario planning, , Sustainable Development Goals, climate change, humanity
Pearson Benelux , Amsterdam
Website: www.pearson.com/nl
Email: amsterdam@pearson.com
Interior: Crius Group
Cover: Studio Pearson Benelux, Amsterdam
Edited by Sarah-Jane Fisher (lead editor) and Ardelle Mertens (Chapter 4)
With illustrations from Doede Okkema
This book is printed on  certied paper.
© Copyright 2021 Mario van Rijn with contributions from René van der Burgt
© Copyright 2021 Pearson Benelux
All rights reser ved. No part of th is publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or t rans-
mitted, i n any form or by any mean s, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or ot herwise,
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contents of th is book, and spec ically disc laim any implied w arranties or merchantabi lity or tness for any
part icular purpose, and shall in no event be liable for a ny loss of prot or any other commercia l damage,
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The author, cont ributor and publisher have attempted to t race the copyright holde rs of all the materia ls
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References to websites (s) were accu rate at the time of writing. Neither the author, contributor, nor t he
publisher i s responsible for s that m ay have expired or changed since t he manuscript was prepared .
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xi
Contents
Preface ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ xv
Acknowledgments ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� xvii
About the Author ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ xviii
Introduction ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xix
 1
Technology �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3
1.1 Riding the wave of raw computer power ........................................... 4
Quantum computers.......................................................................
 computers ............................................................................ 
Chemical computers and Photonics .............................................. 
1.2 Articial Intelligence ..................................................................... 14
What is Articial Intelligence? ....................................................... 
Good Old-Fashioned  ................................................................ 
Machine learning, Articial Neural Networks, and Deep Learning ... 
The technological singularity ....................................................... 
1.3 Biotechnology .............................................................................. 26
Unraveling life ............................................................................. 
Changing the code of life .............................................................. 
Harvesting the power of  ................................................... 
Delivery systems and precision medicine ...................................... 
1.4 Metamaterials, printing technology and the Internet of Things ...... 40
Metamaterials ............................................................................. 
Printing ....................................................................................... 
The Internet of Things .................................................................. 
1.5 Reality, robots, and cyborgs ......................................................... 49
Virtual, augmented, and mixed reality .......................................... 
Robots ........................................................................................ 
Cyborgs ....................................................................................... 
1.6 Final thoughts............................................................................... 62
 2
Humanity colliding with Earth’s boundaries ����������������������������������������� 65
2.1 Shiing towards the Anthropocene Epoch ..................................... 66
Economic Growth ......................................................................... 
2.2 Earth’s nine key processes and systems ........................................ 71
Climate change ............................................................................ 
Biosphere integrity ...................................................................... 
Biogeochemical flows .................................................................. 
Fresh water use ........................................................................... 
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
xii
Ocean acidication ...................................................................... 
Land system change .................................................................. 
Atmospheric aerosol loading ...................................................... 
Stratospheric ozone depletion .................................................... 
Novel entities ............................................................................ 
2.3 Final thoughts............................................................................. 104
 3
Our social foundation ��������������������������������������������������������������������������107
3.1 Water, food, and displacement .................................................... 109
Water .........................................................................................
Food shocks ...............................................................................
Malnourishment .........................................................................
The role of diet and waste............................................................
Genetic manipulation and precision farming.................................
Displacement: a world on the move ..............................................
The ignition of mass migration ................................................... 
Politics handling refugees .......................................................... 
3.2 Energy and mobility .................................................................... 132
Energy outlook ...........................................................................
Clean and renewable energy ........................................................
Smart infrastructure ...................................................................
Negative emission technology .................................................... 
Smart mobility ........................................................................... 
The advancement of electric engines .......................................... 
Autonomous transportation and sharing mobility ........................ 
High-speed connections and alternative ways of transportation ... 
3.3 Health ........................................................................................ 148
Life expectancy ......................................................................... 
Diet ............................................................................................
Screen time: the mental and physical impact ................................
How we treat the ill .....................................................................
3.4 Education ................................................................................... 162
The importance of Early Childhood Development .........................
The rise of education and student debt ....................................... 
Standardized education for the mass .......................................... 
The power of exploration ............................................................ 
Diverse, online, and flexible education ....................................... 
The importance of Higher Education ............................................
3.5 Income and work ..........................................................................174
Drivers behind job displacement..................................................
Jobs at risk .................................................................................
Meaningless jobs and the way we value work ...............................
The great decoupling between income and productivity ................
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 xiii
Universal Basic Income .............................................................. 
3.6 The human factor ........................................................................ 188
Our biology and the role of the environment ................................ 
Motivation ................................................................................. 
The influence of technology .........................................................
The influence of marketing and advertising ..................................
The influence of culture ...............................................................
Digitization: the influence of living online, the rise of a platform
society and privacy ....................................................................
3.7 Final thoughts............................................................................. 196
 4
Economy, politics and power ��������������������������������������������������������������201
4.1 Capitalism and democracy .......................................................... 204
More purchasing power .............................................................. 
More prot for businesses .......................................................... 
Cracks become visible .................................................................
4.2 Power ......................................................................................... 213
The wrong kind of elites ..............................................................
The rise of democracy has come to a halt .....................................
4.3 Control ....................................................................................... 218
Policies ..................................................................................... 
Manipulation of public perception .............................................. 
Military ..................................................................................... 
Hybrid warfare and hacking ........................................................ 
4.4 Resilience ................................................................................... 226
Demand change by favoring protectionism and nationalism ......... 
The power of voting and the role of populism ............................... 
Demand change through protest, activism, and revolution ........... 
4.5 Final thoughts............................................................................. 235
 5
Beyond Earth ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 239
5.1 Our place in the universe ............................................................. 240
Exoplanets ................................................................................ 
Extra-terrestrial life ................................................................... 
5.2 Challenges to go forward to the moon, Mars, and beyond ............ 248
Challenges of space travel .......................................................... 
To the moon and Mars ................................................................ 
Setting up base ......................................................................... 
Traveling beyond our solar system ...............................................
5.3 Opening up the space economy ................................................... 259
The rst steps ............................................................................ 
Lowering costs through re-usability ............................................ 
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
xiv
Satellite market ......................................................................... 
Space mining ............................................................................. 
Tourism ..................................................................................... 
5.4 Humanity’s big leap .................................................................... 269
Nations ..................................................................................... 
Private companies ......................................................................
5.5 A deep dive into the unknown ..................................................... 278
5.6 Final thoughts............................................................................. 285
Final thoughts Explore the Big Picture ��������������������������������������������������287
Appendix A – Sustainable Development Goals ������������������������������������ 290
Concepts ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 294
Abbreviations ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 305
Bibliography �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 308
Index ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 333
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Chapter
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We have identified a star, EPIC 249706694 (HD 139139), that was observed during K2 Campaign 15 with the Kepler extended mission that appears to exhibit 28 transit-like events over the course of the 87-d observation. The unusual aspect of these dips, all but two of which have depths of 200 ± 80 ppm, is that they exhibit no periodicity, and their arrival times could just as well have been produced by a random number generator. We show that no more than four of the events can be part of a periodic sequence. We have done a number of data quality tests to ascertain that these dips are of astrophysical origin, and while we cannot be absolutely certain that this is so, they have all the hallmarks of astrophysical variability on one of two possible host stars (a likely bound pair) in the photometric aperture. We explore a number of ideas for the origin of these dips, including actual planet transits due to multiple or dust emitting planets, anomalously large TTVs, S- and P-type transits in binary systems, a collection of dust-emitting asteroids, ‘dipper-star’ activity, and short-lived starspots. All transit scenarios that we have been able to conjure up appear to fail, while the intrinsic stellar variability hypothesis would be novel and untested.