Global Temperature obvious correlation with Sun for last
1,000 years (unnoticed by IPCC) conﬁrms NASA-HadCRUT
inﬂated post-1980 thermometer data to mimic CO2
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-6 Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil, Oxford, Geology) 28 Sept 2021, amended 27 Nov 2021
4 slides, 15 minutes
Slide 1 (of 4). Conclusions
1) Our star, the Sun, controls global (& regional) warming & cooling, with 150-year delay due to ocean thermal
inertia. (IPCC failed to notice this lag & dismissed solar ﬂuctuations as too small to cause climate change.)
2) ‘Modern Warming’ since 1910 (recovery from Little Ice Age) is greatly exaggerated by NASA-HadCRUT
improper ‘corrections’ to the thermometer record, e.g. failure to compensate fully for urbanization. This solves the
tree-ring Divergence Problem: “A temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any
substantial warming since the 1950s”.
3) The 1930’s (Dust Bowl) was probably the warmest decade of the last 1,000 years; it corresponds to the climax of
the Sun’s 1700-1780 strongest multi-decade surge of the 2nd Millennium (effect delayed 150 years).
4) The joint rise in both CO2 (since 1850, start of Industrial Revolution) & temperature (since 1910, with
downturns lacked by CO2, and without CO2’s acceleration) was purely coincidental.
5) Following the 2016 temperature peak, relative coolness will now persist for about 50 years.
6) CO2 is irrelevant to climate. (We need more CO2 for agriculture & forestry).
7) CO2’s theoretical greenhouse effect must be either conceptually ﬂawed or is cancelled by negative feedbacks
overlooked or ignored by IPCC.
LITTLE ICE AGE ...
1778 Sun’s highest peak in
>1,000 years (except 1958?)
Slide 2 (of 4). Obvious correlation of Sun & Temperature, last 1000 years
1930s hottest decade
in >1,000 years?
Sun’s 1778 mega-
Graphs 5 to 7)
Relative peak heights match Sun
(Graph 1, red circles)
Sun’s 1870 peak corresponds to 2016 temperature peak
(Graph 6), i.e. 146-year lag. Expect relative coolness for
next 50 years (1880-1930 solar lull, double-head arrow).
Slant = ~150-year ‘ocean-inertia lag’ unnoticed by IPCC
Sun-driven ... Denton 1973 Lean 1999
2. Global temperature change, proxy tree
rings etc. PAGES2k 2019 For right-hand end see Slide 4.
1. Sun’s output, annual, proxy tree-ring C14;
also sunspots (black) from 1700AD Brehm 2021
3. USA temp. change,
thermometer Hansen 1999 NASA
(vertical scale & smoothing differ from Graph 2)
3. USA temp. change, published 1999
as in previous slide; thermometer
1778 solar peak
Slide 3 (of 4). NASA-HadCRUT manipulation of thermometer data (temperature inﬂation), last 150 years
Wiki Craig 2020
MORE DATA MANIPULATION by NASA:
NASA adjustment of temperatures & gross
under-compensation for urbanization …
McKitrick 2010 Richard 2017 Heller 2019
Connolly 2021 Higgs 2021a Higgs 2021b
NASA temperature ‘corrections’ intended to
mimic CO2’s accelerating rise since ~1850 (start
of Industrial Revolution; next slide) ...
Hansen 1999 NASA
Relative peak heights same as Sun
(previous slide, Graph 1 red circles)
A) 1930s were warmer than 1990s in
USA, Northern Hemisphere & Arctic
(Graphs 3, 4, 7; 2nd & 3rd circles),
consistent with Sun (previous slide), but
USA (adjusted) & Global (Graphs 5 & 6)
show the opposite.
B) Violating Polar Ampliﬁcation,
2000-2020 is shown warmer than 1930-50
by less in the Arctic (0.5C°) than globally
(0.7C°) (Graphs 6 & 7, black bars =
6. Global temp. change, thermometer
7. Arctic temp. change, thermometer
4. Northern hemisphere temp.
change from tree-ring density
(heavy line) & width (dashed)
NB 'Divergence Problem'
1910 start of ‘Modern Warming’,
no CO2 expression
(red bars &
Slide 4 (of 4). CO2 non-correlation (red text) with Global Temperature, last 2,000 years & last 150 years
Atmospheric CO2 ice cores MacFarling 2006
Previous warmings lack CO2 expression (graph below)
Global temperature change, tree rings etc. PAGES2k 2019
1 AD 2000
Man’s CO2 emissions since start
of Industrial Revolution ~1850
Keeling Curve UCSD
Global temp. change
Wiki Craig 2020
Even after ‘adjustment’ (Slide 3 box at lower left),
Temperature & CO2 graphs still differ 3 ways:
NB in black box ...
Warming surge exaggerated (in
fact 1930s unsurpassed?, Slide 3).
1850-1930s portion corresponds
to Sun’s strongest surge of 2nd
millennium (Slide 2, blue bar)