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Global Temperature strong correlation with Sun for last 1,000 years (unnoticed by IPCC) confirms NASA-HadCRUT inflated post-1980 thermometer data to mimic CO2

  • Geoclastica Ltd


GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-6. These four PDF slides (15 minutes) prove: (1) our star, the Sun, governs global warming (and cooling); (2) CO2 is irrelevant to climate (but we need much more, to optimise agriculture and forest growth; learn CO2 truths at my; (3) intermittent 'Modern Warming' from 1910 is Sun-driven and less than claimed. This contribution will make for interesting discussion at the imminent United Nations 26th (sic) Climate Change Conference (Glasgow, Oct 31 - Nov 12, 2021), titled 'Uniting the World to Tackle Climate Change" … . How does one 'tackle' solar variations? Please don't get me wrong: we DO need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels and we DO need to abandon motor cars; but let's do it for the RIGHT REASONS, namely REAL pollution, which CO2 certainly is not, being essential for life (photosynthesis) and currently still only just above the 'starvation' limit for plants (see my 'CO2 truths'), unlike practically all of the last 500 million years, much richer in CO2. Pollution is dire: you can literally SEE the air in most cities. Petrol- and diesel VEHICLES produce (besides welcome CO2) nitrogen oxides, diesel smog, and tyre dust, poisoning YOUR air in towns and cities. ELECTRIC CARS are hideously damaging in terms of both mining of materials for batteries and disposal of the same batteries. In electricity-generating power stations, burning COAL emits, besides beneficial CO2, toxic nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, particulates, and ash. OIL and GAS are less polluting, but their growing scarcity (hence price) is problematic. Wind- and solar energy are hopelessly inefficient, non-dependable, land-hungry, and have major disposal issues (landfill, pollution). Nuclear power is the only viable way forward. Be certain: the REAL ENEMY is genuine pollution, not CO2. Wasting $$trillions to 'capture' and store CO2 is monumentally foolish and a criminal waste of public money; money that is urgently needed for REAL emergencies, like the imminent SUN-driven unstoppable sea-level rise, amounting to about 3 metres (sic) by 2120, caused by Antarctic ice collapse as usual …
Global Temperature obvious correlation with Sun for last
1,000 years (unnoticed by IPCC) confirms NASA-HadCRUT
inflated post-1980 thermometer data to mimic CO2
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-6 Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil, Oxford, Geology) 28 Sept 2021, amended 27 Nov 2021
4 slides, 15 minutes
Slide 1 (of 4). Conclusions
1) Our star, the Sun, controls global (& regional) warming & cooling, with 150-year delay due to ocean thermal
inertia. (IPCC failed to notice this lag & dismissed solar fluctuations as too small to cause climate change.)
2) ‘Modern Warming’ since 1910 (recovery from Little Ice Age) is greatly exaggerated by NASA-HadCRUT
improper ‘corrections’ to the thermometer record, e.g. failure to compensate fully for urbanization. This solves the
tree-ring Divergence Problem: “A temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any
substantial warming since the 1950s”.
3) The 1930’s (Dust Bowl) was probably the warmest decade of the last 1,000 years; it corresponds to the climax of
the Sun’s 1700-1780 strongest multi-decade surge of the 2nd Millennium (effect delayed 150 years).
4) The joint rise in both CO2 (since 1850, start of Industrial Revolution) & temperature (since 1910, with
downturns lacked by CO2, and without CO2’s acceleration) was purely coincidental.
5) Following the 2016 temperature peak, relative coolness will now persist for about 50 years.
6) CO2 is irrelevant to climate. (We need more CO2 for agriculture & forestry).
7) CO2’s theoretical greenhouse effect must be either conceptually flawed or is cancelled by negative feedbacks
overlooked or ignored by IPCC.
1000 AD
2000 AD
2000 AD
1778 Sun’s highest peak in
>1,000 years (except 1958?)
Slide 2 (of 4). Obvious correlation of Sun & Temperature, last 1000 years
1930s hottest decade
in >1,000 years?
(corresponds to
Sun’s 1778 mega-
Expected 2016
peak temp.
Graphs 5 to 7)
Relative peak heights match Sun
(Graph 1, red circles)
Sun’s 1870 peak corresponds to 2016 temperature peak
(Graph 6), i.e. 146-year lag. Expect relative coolness for
next 50 years (1880-1930 solar lull, double-head arrow).
Slant = ~150-year ‘ocean-inertia lag’ unnoticed by IPCC
Higgs 2021b
Sun’s strongest
surge this
millennium !
Sun-driven ... Denton 1973 Lean 1999
2. Global temperature change, proxy tree
rings etc. PAGES2k 2019 For right-hand end see Slide 4.
1. Sun’s output, annual, proxy tree-ring C14;
also sunspots (black) from 1700AD Brehm 2021
3. USA temp. change,
thermometer Hansen 1999 NASA
(vertical scale & smoothing differ from Graph 2)
1900 2000
5. USA
3. USA temp. change, published 1999
as in previous slide; thermometer
Expected temp.
based on
1778 solar peak
(previous slide,
Graph 1)
Slide 3 (of 4). NASA-HadCRUT manipulation of thermometer data (temperature inflation), last 150 years
Wiki Craig 2020
NASA adjustment of temperatures & gross
under-compensation for urbanization …
McKitrick 2010 Richard 2017 Heller 2019
Connolly 2021 Higgs 2021a Higgs 2021b
Heller 2021
NASA temperature ‘corrections’ intended to
mimic CO2’s accelerating rise since ~1850 (start
of Industrial Revolution; next slide) ...
Heller 2020
Hansen 1999 NASA
NASA 2021
Relative peak heights same as Sun
(previous slide, Graph 1 red circles)
1900 2000
A) 1930s were warmer than 1990s in
USA, Northern Hemisphere & Arctic
(Graphs 3, 4, 7; 2nd & 3rd circles),
consistent with Sun (previous slide), but
USA (adjusted) & Global (Graphs 5 & 6)
show the opposite.
B) Violating Polar Amplification,
2000-2020 is shown warmer than 1930-50
by less in the Arctic (0.5C°) than globally
(0.7C°) (Graphs 6 & 7, black bars =
eyeballed averages).
6. Global temp. change, thermometer
7. Arctic temp. change, thermometer
Briffa 1998
4. Northern hemisphere temp.
change from tree-ring density
(heavy line) & width (dashed)
NB 'Divergence Problem'
1850 2000
1910 start of ‘Modern Warming’,
no CO2 expression
(red bars &
Slide 4 (of 4). CO2 non-correlation (red text) with Global Temperature, last 2,000 years & last 150 years
Atmospheric CO2 ice cores MacFarling 2006
Previous warmings lack CO2 expression (graph below)
Global temperature change, tree rings etc. PAGES2k 2019
1 AD 2000
Man’s CO2 emissions since start
of Industrial Revolution ~1850
(black bars)
Atmospheric CO2
Keeling Curve UCSD
(blue bar)
Global temp. change
Wiki Craig 2020
Even after ‘adjustment’ (Slide 3 box at lower left),
Temperature & CO2 graphs still differ 3 ways:
NB in black box ...
Warming surge exaggerated (in
fact 1930s unsurpassed?, Slide 3).
1850-1930s portion corresponds
to Sun’s strongest surge of 2nd
millennium (Slide 2, blue bar)
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