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FACTORES DE GEORRIESGO DE LA REPRESA CÓNDOR CLIFF -NÉSTOR KIRCHNER - Versión final en el link a continuación
Abstract
Los Aprovechamientos Hidroeléctricos del Río Santa Cruz (AHRSC) consisten en un proyecto hidroeléctrico compuesto por dos grandes represas sobre dicho río en la Patagonia austral Argentina. La represa Cóndor Cliff-Néstor Kirchner (CC-NK), la más occidental de las dos represas que ahora se están construyendo (la otra es la represa La Barrancosa-Jorge Cepernic, LB-JC), requiere una atención particular y será la que se estudie en esta investigación, ya que desde sus orígenes ha presentado desafíos de ingeniería no del todo resueltos y que plantean riesgos potenciales. La represa CC-NK se levanta sobre sedimentos cuaternarios y sobre paleodeslizamientos de laderas, ambos distribuidos sobre una formación de rocas sedimentarias terciarias débiles con baja diagénesis. Está presente también un factor de peligro sísmico no correctamente evaluado, que junto a otras variables de riesgo plantean un escenario posible de incidencias geológicas y técnicas que encadenadas en efecto cascada pueden tener un potencial catastrófico. Aplicando una metodología geográfica, holística y con amplia perspectiva, que incluye desde la geología hasta los factores sociales, abordamos los principales aspectos de preocupación dejando abierto el debate para estudios más profundos, sin olvidar que este informe se centra en los factores físicos del ambiente y de la obra, en el georiesgo.
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In the winter of 1714-1715, a large rotational landslide originated on the northern slope of the Sierra de Aralar (Navarra, Spain), generating an earthflow that slowly descended through the valley for a kilometer and a half destroying the village of Inza. An interdis-ciplinary research recreated the historical process of the event and the geomorphological characterization of this large landslide. The geological analysis and hydrogeological characteristics of the site also identified the determining factors of this historical event. From the analysis that triggered the landslide and how the climate affected events can now be demonstrated from historical records of excess rainfall and the initial start of the process. From the recreated pre-failure topography, the stability of the original slope was studied using a 3D numerical model to identify the factors, causes and mechanism that controlled the development of the landslide.
A deadly cascade
A catastrophic landslide in Uttarakhand state in India on February 2021 damaged two hydropower plants, and more than 200 people were killed or are missing. Shugar et al. describe the cascade of events that led to this disaster. A massive rock and ice avalanche roared down a Himalayan valley, turning into a deadly debris flow upstream from the first of the two hydropower plants. The sequence of events highlights the increasing risk in the Himalayas caused by increased warming and development.
Science , abh4455, this issue p. 300
This study describes the use of multi-temporal SPOT 6 and 7 tri-stereo images for producing high resolution (3 × 3 m pixel) digital elevation models (DEM) over two large (2680 and 837 km2) mountainous and glaciated regions in the Argentinian Andes. The images were radiometrically adjusted to enhance matching over different light intensity conditions, allowing for photogrammetric reconstruction in zones of both poor texture and chromatic contrast. Independent point clouds were obtained from every image pair and contrast adjustment, and then merged into a single point cloud, which was cleaned from noisy points by an iterative filtering process. The first testing place, the Cordón de la Ramada massif, is in the Central Andes, an arid area with one of the highest density of rock glaciers in the world and some of the highest peaks of the Americas. The second is in the Parque Nacional Los Glaciares in the Southern Andes, host of the notorious Perito Moreno glacier which ends in the Lago Argentino, forming cyclical ice-dams with a consequent downstream flooding after dam-break. This work provides 1) a practical application to generate high resolution DEM from SPOT 6 and 7 tri-stereo images, 2) the first high resolution DEM over Cordón de la Ramada and Perito Moreno glacier, and 3) the March 2018 preand postice-dam break DEM for the Perito Moreno glacier, which provides the opportunity to describe this glacial lake outburst flood.
Free-flowing rivers (FFRs) support diverse, complex and dynamic ecosystems globally, providing important societal and economic services. Infrastructure development threatens the ecosystem processes, biodiversity and services that these rivers support. Here we assess the connectivity status of 12 million kilometres of rivers globally and identify those that remain free-flowing in their entire length. Only 37 per cent of rivers longer than 1,000 kilometres remain free-flowing over their entire length and 23 per cent flow uninterrupted to the ocean. Very long FFRs are largely restricted to remote regions of the Arctic and of the Amazon and Congo basins. In densely populated areas only few very long rivers remain free-flowing, such as the Irrawaddy and Salween. Dams and reservoirs and their up- and downstream propagation of fragmentation and flow regulation are the leading contributors to the loss of river connectivity. By applying a new method to quantify riverine connectivity and map FFRs, we provide a foundation for concerted global and national strategies to maintain or restore them.
The aim of the research was to carry out the measurement of changes in surface (geodynamic) of the different cryo and glaciogenic formations of the glacial and periglacial environments of the Cordon de la Ramada in the Argentine Central Andes. Knowing the evolution of this environment in the last decades allows to estimate its state of conservation or deterioration, making possible to evaluate the impact of global warming or anthropogenic activity at the local scale.
The measurements were carried out with photogrammetry and SAR interferometry, which have been supported with field work. For the first case, with data from airborne analogue sensors of the sixties and with contemporary high-resolution satellite image (SPOT 6 and 7). For the second case, with data from the ESA Sentinel-1 mission. In the field campaigns, GNSS geodetic measurements of ground control points for photogrammetric purposes were made. Through these techniques it has been possible to:
a) Identify the dynamical phenomena in the region and establish its three dimensional characteristics through DInSAR;
b) establish vector velocity vector fields in planimetry for the glaciers using image correlation techniques; and finally,
c) generate two high-resolution DEMs with fifty years of chronological time-lapse between them to perform geodetic mass balance.
Based on the results, a quantitative and qualitative analysis is presented, allowing for both the visualization of the characteristics of the movements and the evaluation of the difficulties and suitability in the application of the methods for the proposed objectives.
The approximation to the object of study is presented from a medium geographic scale point of view. Usually it is possible to find either very detailed study cases circumscribed to a particular phenomenon such as the study of a single glacier, or research with broad scope, such as large regional inventories that expose generic variables like climate models or permafrost spatial distribution. Researches that approaches the subject from intermediate geographical units, whose allows for handling levels of detail precision, while also performing an interpretation in regional terms, are less common. In this way, the glacial and periglacial environment of the Cordon de la Ramada is described here for the first time in a very detailed and systematic manner, allowing a better understanding of its dynamics and evolution. The approach to the subject is developed following the most recent methods applied to this type of study.
Shale oil and gas exploitation by hydraulic fracturing experienced a strong development worldwide over the last years, accompanied by a substantial increase of related induced seismicity, either consequence of fracturing or wastewater injection. In Europe, unconventional hydrocarbon resources remain underdeveloped and their exploitation controversial. In UK, fracturing operations were stopped after the Mw 2.3 Blackpool induced earthquake; in Poland, operations were halted in 2017 due to adverse oil market conditions. One of the last operated well at Wysin, Poland, was monitored independently in the framework of the EU project SHEER, through a multidisciplinary system including seismic, water and air quality monitoring. The hybrid seismic network combines surface mini-arrays, broadband and shallow borehole sensors. This paper summarizes the outcomes of the seismological analysis of these data. Shallow artificial seismic noise sources were detected and located at the wellhead active during the fracturing stages. Local microseismicity was also detected, located and characterised, culminating in two events of Mw 1.0 and 0.5, occurring days after the stimulation in the vicinity of the operational well, but at very shallow depths. A sharp methane peak was detected ~19 hours after the Mw 0.5 event. No correlation was observed between injected volumes, seismicity and groundwater parameters.
The Human-induced Earthquake Database, HiQuake, is a comprehensive record of earthquake sequences postulated to be induced by anthropogenic activity. It contains over 700 cases spanning the period 1868–2016. Activities that have been proposed to induce earthquakes include the impoundment of water reservoirs, erecting tall buildings, coastal engineering, quarrying, extraction of groundwater, coal, minerals, gas, oil and geothermal fluids, excavation of tunnels, and adding material to the subsurface by allowing abandoned mines to flood and injecting fluid for waste disposal, enhanced oil recovery, hydrofracturing, gas storage and carbon sequestration. Nuclear explosions induce earthquakes but evidence for chemical explosions doing so is weak. Because it is currently impossible to determine with 100% certainty which earthquakes are induced and which not, HiQuake includes all earthquake sequences proposed on scientific grounds to have been human-induced regardless of credibility. Challenges to constructing HiQuake include under-reporting which is ~ 30% of M ~ 4 events, ~ 60% of M ~ 3 events and ~ 90% of M ~ 2 events. The amount of stress released in an induced earthquake is not necessarily the same as the anthropogenic stress added because pre-existing tectonic stress may also be released. Thus earthquakes disproportionately large compared with the associated industrial activity may be induced. Knowledge of the magnitude of the largest earthquake that might be induced by a project, MMAX, is important for hazard reduction. Observed MMAX correlates positively with the scale of associated industrial projects, fluid injection pressure and rate, and the yield of nuclear devices. It correlates negatively with calculated inducing stress change, likely because the latter correlates inversely with project scale. The largest earthquake reported to date to be induced by fluid injection is the 2016 M 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake, by water-reservoir impoundment the 2008 M ~ 8 Wenchuan, People's Republic of China, earthquake, and by mass removal the 1976 M 7.3 Gazli, Uzbekistan earthquake. The minimum amount of anthropogenic stress needed to induce an earthquake is an unsound concept since earthquakes occur in the absence of industrial activity. The minimum amount of stress observed to modulate earthquake activity is a few hundredths of a megapascal and possibly as little as a few thousandths, equivalent to a few tens of centimeters of water-table depth. Faults near to failure are pervasive in the continental crust and induced earthquakes may thus occur essentially anywhere. In intraplate regions neither infrastructure nor populations may be prepared for earthquakes. Human-induced earthquakes that cause nuisance are rare, but in some cases may be a significant problem, e.g., in the hydrocarbon-producing areas of Oklahoma, USA. As the size of projects and density of populations increase, the potential nuisance of induced earthquakes is also increasing and effective management strategies are needed.
Pleistocene Glaciations from Lago Argentino and Río Santa Cruz Upper Valley. Five Pleistocene glaciations are recognized in the Río Santa Cruz area. The oldest, Estancia La Fructosa Glaciation, is the most expanded to the East (70° 27' W) and comprises three pulses or stadials, being the third the most conspicuous. During the Chuñi Aike Glaciation the moraine deposits of the main valley remained relatively high but did not step over the narrows of Condor Cliff to the East. The Cerro Fortaleza Glaciation deposits are essentially restricted to the main valley, cutting remnants of the former glaciation and the basalts of Punta de Vacas crags, reaching 70° 46' West. Probably during this stage the valley attained locally an inverted profile that afterwards was occupied by one or more lakes. This stage of lacustrine deposition is assigned to the "Complejo Limoso". There is a record of at least one glacial readvance during the next glacial recession, with a subsequent reactivation of the limnoglacial cycle. Evidence of direct interaction between the glacier and the lake is shown by the lacustrine silty deposits interbedded with flow till. The Arroyo Verde Glaciation has a first stadial with an important proximal glacifluvial aggradation favoured by the thinness of the valley. Degradation prevails during the second stadial and a new lake forms after the ice retreat. The El Tranquilo Glaciation involves three stadials. As during the previous glaciation the transversal assimetry of the glacier is evident, because of the ice fed in from sources along the northern margin of the valley. Caldenius' original idea concerning the Last Glaciation moraines that sourroud the large patagonian lakes is reconsidered in this work.
(20) (PDF) Glaciaciones Pleistocenas de Lago Argentino y Alto Valle del Río Santa Cruz. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281466270_Glaciaciones_Pleistocenas_de_Lago_Argentino_y_Alto_Valle_del_Rio_Santa_Cruz [accessed Jul 05 2019].
Origin of the tsunami of may 1960 in the Lake Nahuel Huapi, Patagonia: application of the high-resolution bathymetric and seismic techniques. The tsunami recorded in the Lake Nahuel Huapi, Patagonia Argentina, on May 22, 1960 is the first example of a tsunami in a continental lake in Argentina. High-resolution bathymetry (SBMF), 2 high-resolution seismic profiles together with three short sedimentary cores allowed linking this tsunami to the 1960 earthquake of Valdivia, the strongest (Mw 9.5) ever instrumentally recorded earthquake. The impact of the seismic waves produced huge mass-failure below 70-80 m water depth. The failure was probably induced by the presence of a non-cohesive surface (tephra layer?) that acted as a sliding surface, and the mobilized material evolved into a mega turbidite in the deep basin. A large volume of water was displaced by the mobilization of these sediments producing a tsunami that hit the coasts of Bariloche and destroyed the harbor of the city.
The southernmost Andes form an orocline, between the Patagonian cordillera, trending N–S, and the Fueguian cordilleras, trending E–W. On the foreland side is the Magellan Basin. The area has a history of Paleozoic compression, Triassic to Early Cretaceous rifting and Late Cretaceous to Quaternary compression, in response to changing plate tectonics.Major structures of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic age vary along the strike. In the Patagonian cordillera and foothills, folds and thrusts trend NNW, slightly oblique to the orogen, whereas strike–slip faults are parallel to the orogen and right-lateral. In the Fueguian cordilleras and foothills, folds and thrusts trend ESE, slightly oblique to the orogen, whereas strike–slip faults are parallel to the orogen and left-lateral. In the axial zone of the Magellan Basin, folds and thrusts are parallel to the orogen and rifts are sub-perpendicular to it. To a first approximation, the pattern of structures has mirror symmetry about the axis of the Magellan Basin. In detail, however, wrenching appears to be more prevalent in the Fueguian cordillera and foothills, than it is in the Patagonian cordillera and foothills.Minor faults of Cenozoic age are common in the foothills. From a kinematic analysis of fault–slip data: (1) shortening and stretching directions are mostly sub-horizontal; (2) shortening directions vary in trend, from ENE in the Patagonian foothills, to NE in the Fueguian foothills; and (3) stretching directions are sub-parallel to traces of major thrusts. In the Fueguian cordillera and foothills, strike–slip faulting is prevalent; in the Patagonian foothills, crustal thickening is prevalent over strike–slip faulting. The kinematics reflect a combination of thrusting and wrenching and they are consistent with the major structures.To investigate the origin of the Cenozoic structures, we used analogue models on a fully lithospheric scale, where an oceanic plate subducted beneath a continental corner. The corner was an area of transition, from frontal subduction, to transcurrent motion. The boundary conditions may not have been fully realistic, but the experiments did account for the major elements of the structural pattern in southernmost South America, including rifts that are perpendicular to the orogen and counterclockwise block rotations.
This paper describes Late Paleozoic Gondwanan and Late Cretaceous to Early Cenozoic Andean structures in the Southern Patagonian Andes and an associated Extra-Andean region between lakes San Martín and Viedma.
The study area encompasses a 200-km-long W-E section between the Patagonian icefield and the 72ºW longitude meridian, in Argentine Patagonia. The oldest structures are of Late Paleozoic age and developed through at least two deformation phases during the Gondwanan Orogeny. The first deformation phase (Dg1) includes isoclinal and N-overturned WNW trending folds and associated thrusts, including duplexes. The second deformation phase includes NNE trending open folds (Dg2). Deformation occurred in non-metamorphic to very low-grade metamorphic conditions. A spaced rough cleavage is found near the first phase fold hinges. The Eocene and Miocene Andean structural compression resulted in a N-S oriented fold and thrust belt. This belt is comprised of three morphostructural zones from W to E, with distinctive topographic altitudes and structural styles: Andean; Sub-Andean; and Extra-Andean zones. The first corresponds to the inner fold and thrust belt, while the last two are part of the outer fold and thrust belt. The Andean zone (3400–2000m above sea level) is characterized by N-S to NNE trending, E-vergent, Cenozoic reverse faults and associated minor thrusts. The northern part of the Sub-Andean zone (2000–1500m above sea level) consists of W-vergent reverse faults and some NNE open folds. The southern part of the Andean zone includes tight folds with box and kink geometries, related to thrusts at deeper levels. In the Extra-Andean zone, with maximum heights of 1500m, the deformation is less intense, and gentle folds deform the Upper Cretaceous sediments. An inherited Jurassic N-S extensional fault system imposed a strong control on this morphostructural zonation. Also the variation of the Austral Basin sedimentary thickness in the N-S direction seems to have influenced the structural styles of the outer fold and thrust belt. Those differences in sedimentary thickness may be related to S-dipping transfer zones associated to W-E Jurassic extension. In turn, the transfer zones may have been controlled by the N-vergent WNW, Dg1, Gondwanan structural fabric.
In this work we exploited Sentinel-1 satellite radar images processed by means of Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI) techniques for the evaluation of landslide geohazard and impact on a mountainous region. In particular, we used PSI data as starting point in a working chain whose final goal is the estimation of the potential worth of loss of the structures involved by slope instability phenomena. We applied this approach on a test area in the Valle d’Aosta Region (North Italy) where more than fifty percent of the territory is above 2000 m a.s.l. and extensively affected by landslides. Firstly, PSI Sentinel-1 data permitted to scan the territory and to highlight the areas characterized by the highest ground motion rates, namely Active Deformation Areas (ADA). These areas were used to derive the intensity of potential landslides in terms of magnitude. Then, for the different elements at risk (EAR) we estimated both the vulnerability, by referring to values already proposed in literature for similar working scale, and the exposure, by considering the current real estate market values of the EAR in the area. We finally derived color-scale maps showing landslide intensity and values of potential loss expressed in quantitative terms (Euros for square meters). This operational methodology can provide useful indications and outputs for landslide risk management at regional scale. Considering the present availability of Sentinel-1 SAR images with 6-days revisiting time, this procedure can represent an example of satellite InSAR monitoring as supporting tool for Civil Protection activities and geohazard mitigation long-term strategies.
The May 22nd 1960 Valdivia earthquake, Chile (Mw 9.5) triggered a series of subaqueous mass-wasting processes (debris flows and slides) in Lago Nahuel Huapi (Argentina), generating a tsunami-like wave that hit the coasts of San Carlos de Bariloche. Aiming to provide a first preliminary insight into tsunami hazards for the lakeshore communities, in this paper we identify and characterize the subaqueous landslides at the populated distal basin of the lake. Swath bathymetric and seismic profiling surveys were carried out and high-resolution digital elevation models were derived from these data to perform a landslide inventory map. A series of morphometrical parameters (including the landslide area, the volume of displaced materials and the runout distance, among others) were estimated upon selected events. The results indicated that landslide activity at the distal basin of Lago Nahuel Huapi has been concentrated in the vicinity of Bariloche (massive landslide triggered by the 1960 earthquake) and within steep delta fronts where the slope failures typically initiate at shallow waters (9 – 11 m depth). The sliding mass frequently travels basinward along a great distance (≥ 1000 m). At the delta fronts, the volume of material removed by landslides can reach ~ 40 x 104 m3, leaving scar areas of up to 13 m thick. The periodic occurrence of rotational-translational mass movements initiating at the upper edge of the delta fronts, with vertical displacements of the mobilized materials reaching ~ 200 m, probably represents a potential tsunami hazard for the nearby populated coasts.
A global catalog of small- to large-sized earthquakes was systematically analyzed to identify causality and correlatives between human-made mass shifts in the upper Earth’s crust and the occurrence of earthquakes. The mass shifts, ranging between 1 kt and 1 Tt, result from large-scale geoengineering operations, including mining, water reservoirs, hydrocarbon production, fluid injection/extractions, deep geothermal energy production and coastal management. This article shows evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between (a) seismic moment magnitudes M of observed earthquakes, (b) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the geoengineering “operation points” and (c) mass removals or accumulations on the Earth’s crust. Statistical findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. Statistical observations, however, indicate that every second, seismic event tends to occur after a decade. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after 2 or 20 years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25 or 75 %, respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in which the operations take place (i.e., extensive, transverse or compressive). Results are summarized as follows: First, seismic moment magnitudes increase the more mass is locally shifted on the Earth’s crust. Second, seismic moment magnitudes increase the larger the area in the crust is geomechanically polluted. Third, reverse faults tend to be more trigger-sensitive than normal faults due to a stronger alteration of the minimum vertical principal stress component. Pure strike-slip faults seem to rupture randomly and independently from the magnitude of the mass changes. Finally, mainly due to high estimation uncertainties of source parameters and, in particular, of shallow seismic events (<10 km), it remains still very difficult to discriminate between induced and triggered earthquakes with respect to the data catalog of this study. However, first analyses indicate that small- to medium-sized earthquakes (<M6) seem to be induced and large-sized events (>M6) seem to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions.
During 1961, a deep well was drilled at the Rocky Mt. Arsenal northeast of Denver, CO, to dispose of contaminated waste water. The well is bottomed in 75 ft of highly fractured Precambrian gneiss. Pressure injection of waste water into the fractured Precambrian rock was begun in March 1962. Since the start of fluid injection, 710 Denver-area earthquakes have been recorded. The majority of these earthquakes had epicenters within a 5-mile radius of the Arsenal well. The volume of fluid and pressure of fluid injection appear to be directly related to the frequency of earthquakes. Evidence also suggests that rock movement is due to the increase of fluid pressure within the fractured reservoir and that open fractures may exist at depths greater than previously considered possible. (19 refs.)
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