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Global warming-cooling mimic solar variations (150-year delay), absolving CO2, portending
50 cooler years, confirming NASA-HadCRUT inflated 1980-2020 warming: SLIDESHOW
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
8 slides (15 minutes) for 2022 conference
See accompanying 500-word abstract at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354688725
List of slides
1. Title (this slide)
2. Last 9,000 years (9ky), Sun’s output matches Greenland temperature proxy, offset by 100-200y
3. Last 1ky, Sun’s output matches Global temperatures, offset by 150-200y
4. Last 200y, Sun’s output matches Global temperatures, offset by 140-160y
5. NASA-HadCRUT temperature manipulation I
6. NASA-HadCRUT temperature manipulation II
7. Last 9ky, CO2 and temperature unrelated
8. Which governs global temperature: Total solar irradiance (TSI) or Solar magnetic output (SMO)?
6435BC 770BC
4320BC 3340BC
Recons-
tructed
sunspot
number
1695AD
410AD
4210BC 3210BC
6210BC
2C°
Slide 2. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
Last 9,000 years (9ky), Sun’s output matches Greenland temperature proxy, offset 100-200y
Solar output. Proxy. Ice-core Be10 & tree-ring C14. Decadal resolution. Red = sunspots (SILSO). Wu et al. 2018
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2018/07/aa31892-17/aa31892-17.html
130 140 155
Lag (years):
5200BC
5010BC
190
1950
310AD
Greenland/Arctic average
2000-20 temp. ~1C° above
1940-60 (Slide 5)
1958
sunspot
peak
110
1850AD
1970
Inset:
Global mean surface air temp. Multi-proxy (73 datasets). Sampling resolution
20-500y (median 120y). Red curve from Marcott et al. 2013
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 Purple curve =
Earth’s axial obliquity. Black curve by Javier Vinos (2017), using re-averaged,
rescaled & unsmoothed Marcott data https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/30
Selected dates (BC, AD) ...
Sun: Inceoglu et al. 2015 https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2015/05/aa24212-14/aa24212-14.html
Temp.: Vinther et al. 2009 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/vinther2009greenland.txt
100
225
630BC
Little Ice Age
Temperature change, Greenland surface air. Proxy = ice-core O18. Sample resolution 20yr. Graph tilted
to roughly compensate for cooling effect of declining obliquity since 9ky (inset). DeWikiMan 2019, Vinther et al. 2009
data https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HoloceneTemperatureOfGreenland_VintherEtAl2009-en.svg
‘8.2-kiloyear event’
https://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
8.2-kiloyear_event
2000AD
1000AD
NB Brehm et al. show LIA
lagging ~120y behind solar
lull (blue boxes)
1958 sunspot max.
(contrast 1991 peak
magnetic flux,
Slide 8)
Slide 3. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
Last 1ky, Sun’s output matches Global temperatures, offset 150-200y
Black curve =
HadCRUT
thermometer:
1980-2020
temperatures
exaggerated.
See abstract &
Slide 6.
Solar output. Proxy. Tree-ring C14. Annual resolution. Black = sunspots (SILSO).
Brehm et al. 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00674-0
~150y
~1050-
1200
AD
~190y
~1130-
1320 ~190y
~1230-
1420
Lag:
~170y
~1440-
1610
~200y
~1360-
1560
~190y
~1520-
1710
Solar lull
Little Ice Age
~146y
~1870
-2016
Next
slide
~160y
~1780
-1940
Temperature change, near-surface air, world average. Multi-proxy, mostly
annual resolution. PAGES2k 2019 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0400-0
Sun’s biggest multi-century
surge in >9ky (Slide 2)
Second-largest multi-
century warming in
>9ky (Slide 2)
Red boxes:
2000-2020 warmth
relative to 1930-50
contradicts Sun’s
near-equality.
Contrast Nuuk
temperature before
’homogenization’,
Slide 5.
~160y
~1700-
1860
Solar output. Proxy. Sunspots (SILSO).
Rohde 2021 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png
164y
~1841
-2005
Slide 4. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
Last 200y, Sun’s output matches Global temperatures, offset 140-160y
146y
~1870-
2016
Expect cooler
for decades
2000AD
1800AD
Temperature change, land surface air.
Thermometer compilation, Berkeley
Temp. change, global (= average of 2 graphs above).
Thermometer, NASA
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
http://berkeleyearth.org/archive/summary-
of-findings/
1880 onward (superimposed) = NASA ...
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Lag: ~155y
~1812-
1967
~157y
~1783
-1940
Blue box:
Sudden 1980 decoupling
of land & sea temp. is
impossible (Slide 6)
Lag (~150y) is longer than
NASA temp. series (140y),
masking solar correlation
1900AD 2000AD
Slide 5. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
NASA-HadCRUT temperature manipulation I
Inconsistent (changeable) relative warmth 1930-50, 1980-2000, 2000-20 (colored bars = eyeballed 20-year averages)
1900AD 2000AD
2000-20 0.5C° warmer than 1930-50
(cf. 0.4C° for global sea, Slide 6)
Even less at Nuuk, Greenland ...
2000-20 0.7C° warmer than 1930-50
cf. lower differential in Arctic,
despite ‘polar amplification ...
1980-2000 cooler than 1930-50
... and Nuuk, Greenland ...
2000-20 no warmer than 1930-50
before ‘homogenization’, which
‘cooled’ 1930-50 by 1.0C° !
a) Global (land-sea average), HadCRUT https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html
c) Nuuk, Greenland, NASA database
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=GL000004250&ds=14&dt=1
1980-2000 cooler than 1930-50
... and USA ...
1980-2000 cooler than 1930-50
... until manipulation by NASA ...
d) USA, Hansen et al. 1999 fig. 6
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999JD900835
e) USA, NASA ...
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
2020-20 0.7C° warmer than 1930-50
1980-2000 warmer than 1930-50
Chart downloaded Sept. 2021
(likely to change)
b) Arctic, HadCRUT data http://www.climate4you.com/
1980-2000 warmer than 1930-50
(cf. NASA, Slide 4)
Likewise global sea, Slide 6
... the opposite of ...
0.7C°
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html
0.5C°
Lower Atmosphere (global; satellite)
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-
temperatures/
0.5C° warming,
1980-2020
Same
scales
1850-1980
Slide 6. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
NASA-HadCRUT temperature manipulation II
Global, i.e. Land & Sea
average, area-weighted
Land surface air
temp. change
Sea
surface
Claimed
1980-2020
warming
1.1C°
Be astonished & appalled ...
1. Land, Sea & thus Global 1850-1980 (black boxes) temperatures were equal, and they varied in lockstep (within error; grey bands). This signifies
that Sea (surface) temp. governs Land (surface air) temp. (see accompanying abstract).
2. Inexplicably starting suddenly in 1980, HadCRUT & (Slide 4) NASA depict post-1980 Land warming 2x faster than Sea (colored solid bars =
eyeballed gradients). Such decoupling, physically impossible (see ‘1’), must reflect Land-temperature inflation by incorrect adjustments for
urbanization bias (see abstract).
3. Thus Sea surface temp. (no urbanization effect) is truer depiction of Global temp., as shown by agreement with satellite data (bottom graph).
CO2, atmospheric, from air measurements (red) & Antarctic ice cores, DeWikiMan
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ghgs-epcia-holocene-CO2-en.svg
Slide 7. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
Last 9ky, CO2 and temperature unrelated
See also ‘Holocene Temperature Conundrum’ https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/34/E3501.full.pdf
Temp., Arctic. From Slide 5
Temp. change, world sea-surface. HadCRUT
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html
= truer representation of Global (Land-Sea average) temp., as
HadCRUT-NASA inflated post-1980 Land temp. (Slides 5, 6)
Atmospheric CO2
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.ed
2000-20
average
temp.
(Slide 2)
1980-2020 CO2
rate (gradient)
400% higher
than 1910-45
Last 170yr, ‘spurious correlation’ ...
Temperature change, Greenland surface air. From Slide 2.
1980-2020 temp.
gradient lower
than 1910-45
i.e. no overall
acceleration
Ditto
Continuous CO2 acceleration. No manifestation
of two 30yr coolings or 14yr hiatus (black bars)
7000BC BC AD
1850-2000
No CO2 expression of 3 pre-industrial warmings
of equal rapidity to post-1850 ‘Modern Warming’
1700AD
20001850AD
SMO Lockwood et al. 1999 https://www.nature.com/articles/20867
1958 peak, highest TSI
in >9ky (Slide 2)
The likely solar parameter is SMO, governs cloudiness according to the Svensmark theory ...
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/03/SvensmarkSolar2019-1.pdf
• SMO & TSI vary in lockstep, but not strictly proportionally (red circles above)
• TSI variations are minuscule, e.g. estimates of TSI rise during Sun’s 1700AD to 20th century surge (Slides 2-4)
range 0.01 to 0.4% https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2018/07/aa31199-17/aa31199-17.html
• SMO variations are much greater, e.g. more than doubled in 20th century (Lockwood link above)
• Svensmark theory: SMO controls global temp. by regulating cosmic rays, hence cloudiness ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark
• IPCC (2013) famous fig. SPM.5 validly supposes TSI tiny variations affect climate negligibly ...
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf ... but omits SMO !
Slide 8. Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, 19th September 2021
Which governs global temperature: Total solar irradiance (TSI) or Solar magnetic output (SMO)?
TSI proxy
Sunspots
1991 peak, highest
SMO in >9ky