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Forex trading strategy : an empirical study on the currency pair GBP/USD,

Authors:
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2231-1009
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2231-1009
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN COMPUTER APPLICATION & MANAGEMENT
A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed (Refereed/Juried) Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories
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ii
CONTENTS
Sr.
No.
TITLE & NAME OF THE AUTHOR (S)
Page
No.
1.
A STUDY ON THE GROUP LEVEL WORKPLACE SPIRITUALITY OF THE COLLEGE TEACHERS WITH SPECIAL
REFERENCE TO ENGINEERING COLLEGES IN NAMAKKAL DISTRICT
R. FLORENCE BHARATHI & DR. M. G. SARAVANA RAJ
1
2.
THE EFFECT OF INVESTOR DEMOGRAPHICS ON CONFIRMATION BIAS OF INDIVIDUAL TRADING
DECISIONS AT THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE
SHADRACK MTURI KATANA
5
3.
ASSESSING THE
PERFORMANCE LINK: THE CASE OF COMMERCIAL STATE CORPORATIONS IN KENYA
THOMAS C.O. MOSE, DR. MIKE IRAVO, DR. GEORGE O. ORWA & DR. ENG.THOMAS SENAJI
9
4.
SCM FRAME WORK FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN
RETAIL SECTOR
DR. S. SARAVANAN & S. SARANYADEVI
15
5.
FOREX TRADING STRATEGY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE CURRENCY PAIR GBP/USD
SRIDHAR L S, SUMATHY. M, CHARLES AMBROSE. A & SUDHA N
20
6.
A STUDY OF CONSUMER PERCEPTION OF LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION IN THE
TIRUPATI REGION
B. BHASKAR NAIK, M. RAJASEKHAR & G. JANARDHANA
24
7.
GOVERNMENT’S INCLINATION IN DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIC AGRICULTURE IN INDIA
V. VARDHINI & DR. P. RAJA
29
8.
IMPLEMENTATION OF SECURITY IN CLOUD COMPUTING
SUDHIR DAWRA & PUSHPNEEL VERMA
33
9.
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION LEVEL TOWARDS LANDLINE SERVICE PROVIDED BY BSNL WITH REFERENCE
TO COIMBATORE
V. SUMATHI & DR. K. GUNASUNDARI
36
10.
PERSPECTIVES CONSIDERED IN BALANCED SCORECARD: A STUDY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO
IT/ITES EMPLOYEES OF COIMBATORE DISTRICT
SHYAM UMASANKAR K K & DR. KRISHNAVENI V
41
11.
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF EDP CELLS IN COLLEGES
DR. N. KESAVAN & R. SANGEETHA
45
12.
FORECAST ANALYSIS OF PROFITABILITY IN SELECT STEEL COMPANIES IN INDIA
DR. M. KRISHNAMOORTHI
49
13.
A STUDY ON BRAND LOYALTY AND IT’s EFFECT ON BUYING BEHAVIOUR IN CASE OF SELECTED
COSMETIC PRODUCTS IN PUDUKOTTAI
K. SUNDARAMBAL & DR. EDHAYAVARMAN
55
14.
CUSTOMER PREFERENCE TOWARDS BRANDED ICE CREAM OUTLETS IN COIMBATORE CITY
B. ABIRAMI & B. GAYATHRI
58
15.
ECOMMERCE ON
THE VERGE THESE DAYS: A STUDY OF ECOMMERCE IN INDIA AND THE WAY
FORWARD
SHIVALI JINDAL & KANIKA BHATIA
62
16.
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF CHANGE IN REPO RATES ON BANK STOCKS IN INDIA
ARUNA P & CHARU SOLANKI
66
17.
TAMIL HANDWRITTEN CHARACTER RECOGNITION
M.SIVASANKARI
72
18.
A STUDY ON ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE CUSTOMER’S SATISFACTION WITH REFERENCE
TO ATM SERVICES IN BANGALORE CITY
NANDINI.N
75
19.
ENSURING A SUCCESSFUL CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENT: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MATCH-UP
HYPOTHESIS AND MEANING TRANSFER MODEL
DANISH HUSSAIN
82
20.
VARIOUS STEGANOGRAPHY TECHNIQUES FOR HIDING INFORMATION: A SURVEY
SANJEEB KUMAR BEHERA
86
REQUEST FOR FEEDBACK & DISCLAIMER
89
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN COMPUTER APPLICATION & MANAGEMENT
A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed (Refereed/Juried) Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories
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iii
CHIEF PATRON
PROF. K. K. AGGARWAL
Chairman, Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur
(An institute of National Importance & fully funded by Ministry of Human Resource Development, Government of India)
Chancellor, K. R. Mangalam University, Gurgaon
Chancellor, Lingaya’s University, Faridabad
Founder Vice-Chancellor (1998-2008), Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi
Ex. Pro Vice-Chancellor, Guru Jambheshwar University, Hisar
FOUNDER PATRON
LATE SH. RAM BHAJAN AGGARWAL
Former State Minister for Home & Tourism, Government of Haryana
Former Vice-President, Dadri Education Society, Charkhi Dadri
Former President, Chinar Syntex Ltd. (Textile Mills), Bhiwani
FORMER CO-ORDINATOR
DR. S. GARG
Faculty, Shree Ram Institute of Business & Management, Urjani
ADVISORS
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Director A. C. D., School of Management Studies, I.G.N.O.U., New Delhi
PROF. S. L. MAHANDRU
Principal (Retd.), Maharaja Agrasen College, Jagadhri
EDITOR
PROF. R. K. SHARMA
Professor, Bharti Vidyapeeth University Institute of Management & Research, New Delhi
EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD
DR. RAJESH MODI
Faculty, Yanbu Industrial College, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
PROF. PARVEEN KUMAR
Director, M.C.A., Meerut Institute of Engineering & Technology, Meerut, U. P.
PROF. H. R. SHARMA
Director, Chhatarpati Shivaji Institute of Technology, Durg, C.G.
PROF. MANOHAR LAL
Director & Chairman, School of Information & Computer Sciences, I.G.N.O.U., New Delhi
PROF. ANIL K. SAINI
Chairperson (CRC), Guru Gobind Singh I. P. University, Delhi
PROF. R. K. CHOUDHARY
Director, Asia Pacific Institute of Information Technology, Panipat
DR. ASHWANI KUSH
Head, Computer Science, University College, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra
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DR. BHARAT BHUSHAN
Head, Department of Computer Science & Applications, Guru Nanak Khalsa College, Yamunanagar
DR. VIJAYPAL SINGH DHAKA
Dean (Academics), Rajasthan Institute of Engineering & Technology, Jaipur
DR. SAMBHAVNA
Faculty, I.I.T.M., Delhi
DR. MOHINDER CHAND
Associate Professor, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra
DR. MOHENDER KUMAR GUPTA
Associate Professor, P. J. L. N. Government College, Faridabad
DR. SHIVAKUMAR DEENE
Asst. Professor, Dept. of Commerce, School of Business Studies, Central University of Karnataka, Gulbarga
DR. BHAVET
Faculty, Shree Ram Institute of Engineering & Technology, Urjani
ASSOCIATE EDITORS
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PROF. NAWAB ALI KHAN
Department of Commerce, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, U.P.
ASHISH CHOPRA
Sr. Lecturer, Doon Valley Institute of Engineering & Technology, Karnal
FORMER TECHNICAL ADVISOR
AMITA
Faculty, Government M. S., Mohali
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DICKIN GOYAL
Advocate & Tax Adviser, Panchkula
NEENA
Investment Consultant, Chambaghat, Solan, Himachal Pradesh
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Advocate, Punjab & Haryana High Court, Chandigarh U.T.
CHANDER BHUSHAN SHARMA
Advocate & Consultant, District Courts, Yamunanagar at Jagadhri
SUPERINTENDENT
SURENDER KUMAR POONIA
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FOREX TRADING STRATEGY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE CURRENCY PAIR GBP/USD
SRIDHAR L S
ASST. PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
ST JOSEPH’S EVENING COLLEGE
BANGALORE
SUMATHY. M
PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BHARATHIAR UNIVERSITY
COIMBATORE
CHARLES AMBROSE. A
ASST. PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
ST JOSEPH’S COLLEGE
BANGALORE
SUDHA N
ASST. PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
SSR COLLEGE
BANGALORE
ABSTRACT
This research paper attempts to build a Forex trading Strategy on Currency pair GBP/USD. We used daily Series of data from April1, 2014 to March, 2015 (156
exchange rates). Forex strategy built on the basis of ten parameters. The trading strategy framed in this study has found that account balance which is seen as a
measure of profitability of the strategy is influenced by the draw down level and lots employed. This provides an evidence to show that volume of trading and draw
down level influences the profitability. The study ensures that the dr aw down level should be taken care of while changing the other variables. This is because
increasing the draw down value would create high loss while trading. The study ensures that the draw down level should be taken care of while changing the other
variables. This is because increasing the draw down value would create high loss while trading. The important finding is that the time frame of trading does not
influence the account balance.
KEYWORDS
forex, strategy, account balance, draw down, lots employed, parameters.
1. INTRODUCTION
ccess to foreign exchange (forex), the most extensive market on the planet, is generally through an intermediary known as a forex broker. Similar to a stock
broker, these agents can also provide advice on forex trading strategies. This advice to clients often extends to technical analysis and research approaches
designed to improve client forex trading performance.
The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest financial market in the world, and
includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions.
The average daily trade in the global forex and related markets currently is over US$ 3 trillion. Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and
may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks, and are subject to forex scams. Not only is the forex market the largest market in the world, but it is also
the most liquid, differentiating it from the other markets. In addition, there is no central marketplace for the exchange of currency, but instead the trading is
conducted over-the-counter. Unlike the stock market, this decentralization of the market allows traders to choose from a number of different dealers to make
trades with and allows for comparison of prices.
The analysis done is confined to the data available in the forex strategy builder software and it is limited to the variables computed in the FSB software.
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 IMPACT OF LOTS EMPLOYED ON ACCOUNT BALANCE
Studies on various stock markets have proved that the trading volume has a lagged relationship with the profitability. Hiemstra and Jones (1994) studied a linear
relationship from Dow Jones stock returns to percentage changes in NYSE trading volume; they also found a significant bi-directional non-linear causality between
returns and volume. A study conducted by Lee and Rui (2002) on three large stock markets (New York, Tokyo, and London) showed the positive correlation between
trading volume and profitability except for the London stock market. All these studies have been essentially limited to stock markets with the existence of short
sale restrictions. This study has been extended to confirm the relation between the volume and return in the foreign exchange market. The following hypothesis
has been tested for this analysis.
H1: Trading volume has an effect on the profitability of currency trading
2.2 IMPACT OF INDICATOR ON ACCOUNT BALANCE
The indicators used in technical analysis have been differentiated as price based and volume based indicator. The price based indicators have been found to have
a negligible effect on profitability. Blume et. al (1994), for instance, suggested that volume may provide insights into the quality of traders’ information that cannot
be observed from price statistics. Suominen (2001) also developed a model to demonstrate that trading volume contains additional useful information not re-
flected in current stock prices, which can be exploited by traders to improve the profitability of their trading strategies. A study conducted by Elaine Loh provided
A
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN COMPUTER APPLICATION & MANAGEMENT
A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed (Refereed/Juried) Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories
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21
empirical evidence on the role of volume in technical analysis by investigating if the performance of technical analysis based on daily price statistics may be
improved by additionally employing technical indicators based on trading volume. This study examines the performance of currency trading strategy based on
price indicators. Thus the following hypothesis has been framed regarding the efficiency of price based indicators in predicting profitability.
H1: Price based technical indicator influences the profitability of currency trading
2.3 DRAW DOWN AND ACCOUNT BALANCE
Draw down is simply the amount of money lost in trading, expressed as a percentage of total trading. If all trades were profitable there would never be a draw
down. Draw down does not measure overall performance, only the money lost while achieving that performance. Its calculation begins only with a losing trade
and continues as long as the account hits new equity lows (Lave Dandry). The following hypothesis has been tested based on this fact to study the level of impact
of draw down on the profitability.
H1: draw down influences the account balance
2.4 ACCOUNT BALANCE AND PERCENTAGE POSITION
Most of the traders employ a Moving Average (MA) trading rule that implies establishing or maintaining a long position in a currency if the short term MA is equal
to or greater than the long-term MA; establish or maintain a short-position if the short-term MA is less than the long term MA. Though the Percentage position
may have some influences on account balances, it will be a very little and the influence does not impact more. Traders being able to gain money over the long run
were taking smaller positions than losing and bankrupt traders (Johan Ginyard) (1982).
H1: The duration of a position held influences the account balance
2.5 DRAW DOWN AND PERCENTAGE POSITION
Draw down is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment, fund or commodity. A draw down is usually quoted as the percentage
between the peak and the trough. When the current position in a currency pair moves against the favorable trend, it sounds better to change the position as early
as possible. As this time frame prolongs, the draw down value gets increased resulting in a greater loss which in turn reduces the profitability of trading. This leads
to test the following hypothesis.
H1: There is a significant association between draw down and different time frames employed.
2.6 DRAW DOWN AND TIME FRAME
With the decreasing time frame, the frequency of trading increases. The probability of unfavorable moves in a high frequent trading is large. This being the case
the draw down level will vary depending on the frequencies of trading. This necessitates examining the impact of various time frames on draw down level.
H1: Time frame of trading has an influence on draw down
2.7 LOTS EMPLOYED AND DRAW DOWN
Trading Volume is an important one that traders pay more attention. Low volume indicates that the market is illiquid which also implies high volatility in price and
vice versa. This reduces the price effect i.e. Draw down in large trades. In general, with increase in volume, the market makers have greater opportunity for profit
as result of low drawdown.
H1: Volume of trading influences drawdown.
2.8 DRAW DOWN AND INDICATOR
Drawdown is simply the amount of money lost in trading, expressed as a percentage of total trading. It does not talk about the performance of trading. Even with
the same indicator of varying values, the profitability reduces which has an impact on drawdown. The indicator indicates the trend and the time to perform the
buy or sell. Based on the indicator and values taken for the indicator, the draw down is influenced.
H1: Choice of indicator influences draw down level
2.9 PROFIT/LOSS RATIO ON TIME FRAME
A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compared to the size of the average loss per trade. The profitability varies based on the time frame which
influences the profit/loss ratio. There are certain traders who may maintain the ratio as 2:1 or 3:1 but it all depends on the timeframe they are trading and the
other factors that are affecting the strategies followed by the trader. If the timeframe is constant, then the ratio does not get affected but trading in different time
frames affects the ratio.
H1: Time frame of trading influences the profit/loss ratio
2.10 ACCOUNT BALANCE AND TIME FRAME
Account Balance varies as the time frame of trading varies. If the trading in the forex must be considered in long term and as an investment, then longer time
frame like weekly charts must be considered which gives more profitability. The shorter time frame and the Intraday are only based on speculation and the
profitability is based on risk factor by the trader.
H1: Different time frames have varying effects on account balance
3. DATA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 DATA
Only secondary data were used. The data set employed in this study consisted of monthly observations of exchange rates for GBP/USD currency pair. It has been
collected from the Forex Strategy Builder software which is in-built for the period of April 2014 to March 2015. Period of study is from April 2014 to March 2015
(156 exchange rates). Sampling method which was used non-probability sampling, period of data collection has been chosen according to its availability. The Forex
strategy built on the basis of following ten parameters
1. Impact of lots employed on account balance
2. Impact of indicator on account balance
3. Draw down and account balance
4. Account balance and percentage position
5. Draw down and percentage position
6. Draw down and time frame
7. Lots employed and Draw down
8. Draw down and indicator
9. Profit/loss ratio on time frame
10. Account Balance and Time Frame
3.2 METHODOLOGY
Given the time series nature of data, the parameters which was tested using of Correlation test was used to study the correlation among variables like account
balance, lots employed, time in position, draw down, time frame etc. T test was used to study the impact of indicator used on account balance, and one way
ANOVA was used to study the impact of different time frames on account balance, draw down level, profit loss ratio and the impact of different indicators on
account balance and draw down.
Here analysis was made with the help of commonly known software package of SPSS.
The formula for Pearson's correlation takes on many forms. Here two variables is tested X, namely one variable, Y refers another variable N refers the number of
observation. A commonly used formula is shown below:
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN COMPUTER APPLICATION & MANAGEMENT
A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed (Refereed/Juried) Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories
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22
The One-Way ANOVA procedure produces a one-way analysis of variance for a quantitative dependent variable by a single factor (independent) variable. Analysis
of variance is used to test the hypothesis that several means are equal. This technique is an extension of the two-sample t test.It is easy to model all of this with
an equation of the form:
This equation indicates that the jth data value, from level i, is the sum of three components: the common value (grand mean), the level effect (the deviation of
each level mean from the grand mean), and the residual (what's left over.
In general, the ANOVA table for the one-way case is given by:
TABLE 1
Source
Sum of Squares
Degrees of Freedom
Mean Square
Factor
levels
I-1
/(I-1)
residuals
I(J-1)
/I(J-1)
corrected total
IJ-1
In testing the null hypothesis that the population mean is equal to a specified value μ
0
, one uses the statistic
where s is the sample standard deviation of the sample and n is the sample size. The degrees of freedom used in this test is n − 1.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
CORRELATION BETWEEN ACCOUNT BALANCE AND DRAWDOWN
The calculated value of significance is .000 which is less than .05. Therefore, reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis. There is a significant
relation between account balance and draw down. The two variables have negative correlation. Hence if the drawdown value is decreased, the profitability will
be increased.
CORRELATION BETWEEN ACCOUNT BALANCE AND PERCENTAGE POSITION
The calculated value of significance is .026 which is lesser than the observed value of .05. Therefore, reject null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis.
Thus it has been inferred that there is a significant relation between account balance and percentage position. The two variables have positive correlation. This is
one of the main factors which affect profitability.
CORRELATION BETWEEN ACCOUNT BALANCE AND LOTS EMPLOYED
The calculated value of significance is .000 which is lesser than the observed value of .05. Therefore, reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis.
It has been inferred that there is a significant relation between accounts balance and lots employed. The two variables have a positive correlation. Thus if the lot
size is increased the profitability will also be increased.
CORRELATION BETWEEN PERCENTAGE POSITION AND DRAWDOWN
The calculated significant value .979 is found to be greater than the observed value of .05 and hence the null hypothesis has been accepted. The inference is that
there is no significant correlation between percentage position and draw down. The lower value of correlation shows that they are weakly correlated.
CORRELATION BETWEEN LOTS EMPLOYED AND DRAWDOWN
The calculated significant value of .000 is less than .05. Hence the null hypothesis has been rejected and the alternate hypothesis accepted. Thus the inference is
that there exists a significant relation between lots employed and drawdown. The two variables are positively correlated. As the number of lots is increased the
draw down may get increased resulting in significant loss.
DRAW DOWN ON INDICATOR
Null hypothesis: there is no significant difference between the draw down level for different indicators
Alternate hypothesis: there is a significant difference between the draw down level for different indicators.
The calculated value of significance (.333) is greater than the observed value of .05. Hence accept the null hypothesis. Thus there exists no significant difference
between the draw down level for different indicators used.
PROFIT/ LOSS RATIO ON TIME FRAME
Null hypothesis: There is no significant difference between the profit loss ratio levels at different time frames.
Alternate hypothesis: There is a significant difference between the profit loss ratio levels at different time frames.
The calculated value of significance (.1) is greater than the observed value of.05. Hence accept the null hypothesis. Thus there do not exist any significant difference
between the draw down level for different time frames employed.
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE T – TEST
ACCOUNT BALANCE AND INDICATOR
Null hypothesis: There is no significant difference between the account balance values for different indicators used
Alternate hypothesis: There is a significant difference between the account balance values for different indicators used
Levenes test says that the variances of the two samples are equal. The calculated value of significance .001 is less than the observed significance of .05. Therefore,
reject the null hypothesis which says that the choice of indicator does not influence net profit. It is inferred that the account balance differs for each type of
indicator. Looking at the descriptive statistics the momentum indicator shows greater profitability. It means that the variances are different.
5. CONCLUSION
The trading strategy framed in this study has found that account balance which is seen as a measure of profitability of the strategy is influenced by the draw down
level and lots employed. This provides an evidence to show that volume of trading and draw down level influences the profitability. The study ensures that the
draw down level should be taken care of while changing the other variables. This is because increasing the draw down value would create high loss while trading.
The important finding is that the time frame of trading does not influence the account balance. Thus it should be decided according to the convenience of the
trader in the long run. This study helps a trader to optimize his trading strategy based on the relationship between several variables of the forex strategy builder
software.
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN COMPUTER APPLICATION & MANAGEMENT
A Monthly Double-Blind Peer Reviewed (Refereed/Juried) Open Access International e-Journal - Included in the International Serial Directories
http://ijrcm.org.in/
23
REFERENCES
1. Abraham A. and Chodhury M., (2001), “An Intelligent Forex Monitoring System”, In Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Info-tech and Info-net,
Beijing, China, IEEE Press, pp. 523-528.
2. Craig Hiemstra and Jonathan D. Jones (1994), “Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price: Volume Relation”, Journal of Finance,
Vol. XLIX No. 05
3. Dormale, A. V. (1997), “The Power of Money”, Macmillan Press, London.
4. Forex Capital. (2001), “Introduction to Forex Market”, http://www.forexcapital.com, Accessed on 14-Sept.-2001.
5. Grabbe, J. O. (1996), “International Financial Markets”, Englewood Hills, Prentice Hall Inc.
6. John Y. Campbell, Sanford J. Grossman and Jiang Wang (1993), “Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns”, the Quarterly Journal of Economics.
7. Lawrence Blume, David Easley and Maureen O'Hara (1994), “Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume, Journal of Finance, Vol. XLIX No.
01
8. Longel, K. and Walter, K. (2001), “Electronic Currency Trading for Maximum Profit, Prima Money”, Roseville, California.
9. Matti Suominen (2001), “Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36:545-565
10. Thomas Klitgaard, Matthew Higgins (2004), “Reserve Accumulation: Implications for Global Capital Flows and Financial Markets”, Current Issues in Economics
and Finance, Vol. 10, No. 10,
APPENDIX
TABLE 2: CORRELATION RESULTS ON ACCOUNT BALANCE, PERCENTAGE POSITION, LOTS EMPLOYED AND DRAW DOWN
Account Bal-
ance Vs.
Draw Down
Account Balance Vs.
Percentage Position
Account Balance Vs.
Lots Employed
Percentage Position
Vs. Draw Down
Lots Employed Vs
Draw Down
Pearson Correlation
-
.687(**)
.179(*)
.318(**)
.002
.458(**)
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .026 .000 .979 .000
N 156 156 156 156 156
ONE-WAY ANOVA
TABLE 3: TIME FRAME Vs. ACCOUNT BALANCE
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
Between Groups
5396780.974
2
2698390.487
5.567
.005
Within Groups
74164855.250
153
484737.616
Total 79561636.224 155
DRAW DOWN ON TIME FRAME
TABLE 4
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
Between Groups
3649914.782
2
1824957.391
3.641
.029
Within
Groups
76677088.654
153
501157.442
Total
80327003.436
155
DRAW DOWN ON INDICATOR
TABLE 5
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
Between Groups
489216.000
1
489216.000
.944
.333
Within Groups
79837787.436
154
518427.191
Total
80327003.436
155
PROFIT/ LOSS RATIO ON TIME FRAME
TABLE 6
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
Between Groups
22560.047
2
11280.024
5.217
.007
Within Groups
224879.039
104
2162.298
Total
247439.086
106
ACCOUNT BALANCE AND INDICATOR
TABLE 7
INDEPENDENT SAMPLES TEST ON ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE 8
indicator N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
account balance
leading
78
338.65
334.244
37.846
lagging
78
727.49
919.223
104.082
F
Sig.
t
df
Sig. (2
-
tailed)
Mean Difference
Std. Error
Difference
95%
Confidence Interval
of the Difference
Lower Upper
Equal variances assumed 11.657 .001 -3.511 154 .001 -388.83 110.749 -607.616 -170.051
Equal variances not assumed -3.511 97.011 .001 -388.83 110.749 -608.638 -169.028
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ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Article
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This paper investigates the relationship between aggregate stock market trading volume and the serial correlation of daily stock returns. For both stock indexes and individual large stocks, the first-order daily return autocorrelation tends to decline with volume. The paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk-averse “market makers” accommodate buying or selling pressure from “liquidity” or “noninformational” traders. Changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role. The model implies that a stock price decline on a high-volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low-volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return.
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Many central banks-particularly those in Japan and the emerging Asian nations-have been building up their holdings of foreign currency assets. These holdings, known as foreign exchange reserves, may help countries stabilize their currencies, but they can also lead to investment losses for the central banks. The large share of dollar assets among reserve holdings has made foreign central banks important players in U.S. financial markets.
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Linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily Dow Jones stock returns and percentage changes in New York Stock Exchange trading volume. The authors find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume. They also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by P. Clark's (1973) latent common-factor model. After controlling for volatility persistence in returns, the authors continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.
An Intelligent Forex Monitoring System
  • A Abraham
  • M Chodhury
Abraham A. and Chodhury M., (2001), "An Intelligent Forex Monitoring System", In Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Info-tech and Info-net, Beijing, China, IEEE Press, pp. 523-528.
Introduction to Forex Market
  • Forex Capital
Forex Capital. (2001), "Introduction to Forex Market", http://www.forexcapital.com, Accessed on 14-Sept.-2001.
Electronic Currency Trading for Maximum Profit, Prima Money
  • K Longel
  • K Walter
Longel, K. and Walter, K. (2001), "Electronic Currency Trading for Maximum Profit, Prima Money", Roseville, California.