Content uploaded by Herve Seligmann
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All content in this area was uploaded by Herve Seligmann on Sep 14, 2021
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Content uploaded by Herve Seligmann
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Herve Seligmann on Sep 14, 2021
Content may be subject to copyright.
The third injection is only necessary because the 2 first injections are ineffective after 4-5 months
Hervé Seligmann
Pfizer COVID19 injections have several effects. They have short term adverse effects increasing
cardiovascular and other problems, and they have a short term protective effects after the 4-5 week
initial adverse effect period. Longer term effects remain unknown to those unacquainted with the
results of animal and 1st human experiments. Short term adverse effects include increased COVID19
infection rates and associated death rates. Data are from the Israeli Health Ministry dashboard.
Figure 1. Daily confirmed Israeli COVID19 cases as a function of date, late 2020. Dashed vertical line
indicates the start of the 1st dose rollout on December 20 2020.The continuous dark blue line
approximates the case number trend extrapolated from daily cases during the month prior to
20XII2020, suggesting 1st doses increased infection rates. Data from הרקב חול - הנורוק (health.gov.il).
This effect is even clearer after the 3d dose rollout on July 1st 2021, probably because May-June daily
cases are naturally low.
Figure 2. Daily confirmed Israeli COVID19 cases as a function of date, summer 2021. Dashed vertical
line indicates the start of the 3d dose rollout on July 1st 2021.The continuous dark blue line
approximates the case number trend extrapolated from daily cases during the month prior to
1VIII2021, suggesting 3d doses increased infection rates. Data from הרקב חול - הנורוק (health.gov.il).
This is also confirmed by Israeli daily COVID19 deaths after 3d dose rollout, Figure 3.
Figure 3. Daily Israeli COVID19 deaths as a function of date. Daily COVID19 deaths were nearly 0 for
May-June, and start shortly after initiating 3d dose injections on 1VII2021. Data from חול - הנורוק
הרקב (health.gov.il).
Overall, daily COVID19 cases skyrocket after July 2021, as compared to the same date in 2020.
Figure 4. Daily Israeli COVID19 cases (2021, orange; 2020 blue) vs days since February 20 of that year.
Vaccination statuses and numbers of infections, severe and fatal cases
March 31
Blue, 2020
no vaccination
April 30
May 31 2020
30 June
31 July
Orange, 2021
60+ pecent vaccinated
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
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9000
10000
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Daily confirmed new COVID19 cases, Israel
Days since February 20
Figure 5. The right panel shows daily confirmed Israeli COVID19 cases as a function of date. The left
panel are numbers of severe cases. Data for the last 3 months, accessed 12IX2021 for the whole
population.
Figure 6. COVID19 deaths vs date for the last 3 months, according to vaccination status (blue,
unvaccinated; light green, 2 doses; dark green, 3 doses).
The right panel in Figure 5 shows parallel dynamics of infections in those unvaccinated and those
after 2 injections in July. Numbers with 3 injections are too low to be comparable at that time.
Numbers of severe and fatal cases increase first in those with 2 doses. Slower increases occur in the
unvaccinated with an approximate 1-week delay. Hence, severe infections started in those with 2
injections. The latter contaminated the unvaccinated, as shown by the 1-week time delay. Higher
daily rates among the unvaccinated in the last past weeks reflect this delay. These will also soon
decrease as observed for those with two doses.
Biases might influence case numbers. For example, the few cases among those with a single dose are
not reported. These might be inflated with the unvaccinated, or not. It is also important to remember
that infection risks increase within the first weeks after an injection (Figures 1 and 2). However, these
new cases, which are probably caused by the injection, are counted as unvaccinated after the 1st
injection, or (presumably) with 2 injections for those occurring shortly after the 3d injection. In
addition, it is likely that a bias favouring testing the unvaccinated exist, while a bias against testing
the vaccinated occurs.
More severe and fatal cases among the vaccinated
Figure 7 plots the daily difference between percentages of severe cases among the all vaccinated
cases, summing 2nd and 3d injections, and daily percentages of severe cases among all unvaccinated
cases. Values above 0 mean that percentages of severe cases are greater among vaccinated than
unvaccinated cases. Hence, after contracting COVID19, risks of severe cases are greater among the
vaccinated than the unvaccinated. Patterns for 2 and 3 injections are overall similar.
Figure 7. Daily difference between percentages of severe cases among the vaccinated and daily
percentages of severe cases among all unvaccinated cases, (A) summing 2nd and 3d injections, (B)
only after 3d injection. Values above 0 mean that percentages of severe cases are greater among
vaccinated than unvaccinated cases.
Figure 8 plots the difference between percentages of deaths among the all vaccinated cases,
summing 2nd and 3d injections, and daily percentages of deaths among all unvaccinated cases. Values
above 0 mean that percentages of deaths are greater among vaccinated than unvaccinated cases.
Hence, after contracting COVID19, risks of dying might be greater among the vaccinated than the
unvaccinated. Patterns for 2nd and 3d injections are overall similar.
-1
-0.5
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1.5
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010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
-1
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4
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010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
B
A
Figure 8. Daily difference between percentages of deaths among the all vaccinated cases, summing
2nd and 3d injections, and daily percentages of deaths among all unvaccinated cases. Values above 0
mean that percentages of deaths are greater among vaccinated than unvaccinated cases.
Figure 9 plots the difference between percentages of deaths among the severe vaccinated cases,
summing 2nd and 3d injections, and daily percentages of deaths among severe unvaccinated cases.
Values above 0 mean that percentages of deaths are greater among severe vaccinated than severe
unvaccinated cases. Hence, after contracting COVID19, risks of dying might be greater among the
severe vaccinated than the severe unvaccinated cases.
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
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010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
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010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
A
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010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
B
Figure 9. Daily difference between percentages of deaths among the severe vaccinated cases, and
daily percentages of deaths among severe unvaccinated cases, (A) summing 2nd and 3a injections,
(B) only after 3d injection. Values above 0 mean that percentages of deaths are greater among
severe vaccinated than severe unvaccinated cases.
Patterns in Figures 7-9 suggest that statements that vaccinations prevent serious and fatal cases are
incorrect. The alternative is that numbers of COVID19 cases among the vaccinated are under-
evaluated because of negative testing biases.
Death rates among the unvaccinated, as they stand since July 7, are 363/167003 = 0.002174,
meaning 2.17 unvaccinated COVID19 deaths per mil. For the sum of those with 2nd and 3d doses,
there are 535/149747 = 0.003573, meaning 3.57 vaccinated COVID19 deaths per mil. The apparent
increase in deaths rates among the vaccinated is by a factor of 1.644.
If testing biases underestimate vaccinated cases, in order to reach the same death rate among the
vaccinated than the unvaccinated, one would need to multiply vaccinated cases by that factor,
hence, correcting for this putative underestimation bias by the 1.644 factor would mean that there
should actually be 246134 vaccinated cases.
Hence, there are two possibilities. First, case numbers are comparable among vaccinated and
unvaccinated because there is no testing bias according to vaccination status, and death rates are
1.644 times greater among vaccinated than unvaccinated COVID19 cases. This fits with the data as
presented on the Israel Health Ministry dashboard. The alternative is that death rates are the same,
meaning that COVID19 cases among the vaccinated are underestimated by a factor of 1.644. None of
these alternatives favours injections.