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Timing of surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international prospective cohort study.

March 2021
Anaesthesia 76(6):748-758

Authors:

Dmitri Nepogodiev

University of Birmingham

Elizabeth Li

University of Birmingham

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Peri-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection increases postoperative mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal duration of planned delay before surgery in patients who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection. This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study included patients undergoing elective or emergency surgery during October 2020. Surgical patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection were compared with those without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted 30-day mortality rates stratified by time from diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection to surgery. Among 140,231 patients (116 countries), 3127 patients (2.2%) had a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. Adjusted 30-day mortality in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection was 1.5% (95%CI 1.4-1.5). In patients with a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, mortality was increased in patients having surgery within 0-2 weeks, 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks of the diagnosis (odds ratio (95%CI) 4.1 (3.3-4.8), 3.9 (2.6-5.1) and 3.6 (2.0-5.2), respectively). Surgery performed ≥ 7 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was associated with a similar mortality risk to baseline (odds ratio (95%CI) 1.5 (0.9-2.1)). After a ≥ 7 week delay in undertaking surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients with ongoing symptoms had a higher mortality than patients whose symptoms had resolved or who had been asymptomatic (6.0% (95%CI 3.2-8.7) vs. 2.4% (95%CI 1.4-3.4) vs. 1.3% (95%CI 0.6-2.0), respectively). Where possible, surgery should be delayed for at least 7 weeks following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients with ongoing symptoms ≥ 7 weeks from diagnosis may benefit from further delay. Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; delay; surgery; timing. © 2021 The Authors. Anaesthesia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association of Anaesthetists.

Adjusted 30-day postoperative mortality rates from main analysis, stratified by pre-defined sub-groups. 'No preoperative SARS-CoV-2' refers to patients without a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The time-periods relate to the timing of surgery following the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Full models and results are available in online Supporting Information (Appendix S1, Table S2).

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Adjusted 30-day postoperative mortality rates in patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection stratified by COVID-19 symptoms. The time-periods relate to the timing of surgery following the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Full models and results are available in online Supporting Information (Appendix S1, Tables S7-S8).

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Overall adjusted 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) rate from main analysis and sensitivity analysis for patients having elective surgery. 'No pre-operative SARS-CoV-2' refers to patients without a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The time-periods relate to the timing of surgery following the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Full models and results are shown in online Supporting Information (Appendix S1, Tables S9-S10).

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Adjusted 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) rate in patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection stratified by COVID-19 symptoms. The time-periods relate to the timing of surgery following the diagnosis of SARSCoV-2 infection. Full model and results are available in online Supporting Information (Appendix S1, Tables S13-S14).

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Unadjusted and adjusted model for 30-day postoperative mortality in all patients. Values are odds ratio (OR) (95%CI).

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Timing of surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection: an

international prospective cohort study

We thank the authors for their work [1], which attempted to

answer a fundamental question in the current management

of surgical patients worldwide, and to quantify the risk of

deciding to perform surgery on a patient previously

infected with SARS-CoV-2. While it is fairly clear from a risk-

beneﬁt perspective that urgent and cancer surgery should

be performed promptly whenever possible despite the

current pandemic, a more difﬁcult question is how to deal

with patients requiring surgery that can be deferred. This

question is becoming increasingly common as countries lift

their restriction policies regarding planned surgery while

the pandemic is brought under control. This study strongly

suggests that non-essential surgical procedures should be

postponed in patients with recent SARS-CoV-2 infection,

including those without symptoms, in the interests of patient

safety and not just because of a lack of healthcare resources.

However, we would like to point out a potential bias

that does not seem to have been clearly controlled nor

discussed in this study. Among the included patients with a

recent infection (between 0 and 6 weeks, precisely when

adjusted mortalities were highest), there was a majority of

patients from low- and middle-income countries (from

58.6% to 65.5%), whereas the inverse was observed for

patients without infection or with an older infection (from

34.3% to 42.1%), which could have led to some excess

mortality in recently infected patients. This might be

supported by the observation that living in a low- and

middle-income country was signiﬁcantly associated with

higher mortality in the unadjusted analysis. Although the

authors used the country income as a covariate in the

logistic regression models to adjust for mortality, it would

have been more appropriate to use a mixed model to

separate the random effects of country income levels from

the ﬁxed effects related to patients’conditions and their

surgical procedures. This would have also provided control

over possible interactions between the effects of some pre-

existing conditions on mortality and the national income

level, since it can be hypothesised that some factors, such as

age, may inﬂuence mortality differently depending on the

country income. This is of particular concern as there

appears to be an ’ecological fallacy’when looking at the

aggregate data for the COVID-19 pandemic; while high-

income countries seem to have a higher case fatality rate

than low- and middle-income countries at ﬁrst sight [2], the

individual data suggest the opposite, with higher case

fatality rate among lower-income people [3, 4]. Therefore, it

does not seem appropriate to use country income as a

characteristic of an individual to be used for ﬁxed effect. It

would be interesting to know whether the effect observed

by the authors was consistent across country income levels,

by providing a sensitivity analysis using this covariate.

D. Lobo

J. M. Devys

Groupe hospitalier Diaconesses, Croix Saint-Simon,

Paris, France

Email: dlobo@hopital-dcss.org

No competing interests declared.

References

1. COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative. Timing of

surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international

prospective cohort study. Anaesthesia 2021; 76: 748–58.

2. Sreedharan J, Nair SC, Muttappallymyalil J, et al. Case fatality

rates of COVID-19 across the globe: are the current draconian

measures justiﬁed? Journal of Public Health (Berl) 2021. Epub 24

March. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01491-4.

3. Karmakar M, Lantz PM, Tipirneni R. Association of social and

demographic factors with COVID-19 incidence and death rates

in the US. Journal of the American Medical Association Network

Open 2021; 4: e2036462.

4. Huyser KR, Yang T-C, Yellow Horse AJ. Indigenous peoples,

concentrated disadvantage, and income inequality in New

Mexico: a ZIP code-level investigation of spatially varying

associations between socioeconomic disadvantages and

conﬁrmed COVID-19 cases. Journal of Epidemiology and

Community Health 2021; 75: 1044–9.

doi:10.1111/anae.15540

Anaesthesia 2022, 77, 107–115 Correspondence

A prognostic model for use before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (GSU-Pulmonary Score): a development and validation study in three international cohorts NIHR Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery*, STARSurg Collaborative*

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Background Pulmonary complications are the most common cause of death after surgery. This study aimed to derive and externally validate a novel prognostic model that can be used before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications and to support resource allocation and prioritisation during pandemic recovery.

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Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic introduced challenges including delaying elective surgery. For cancer patients, reducing delays is preferred to prevent unfavorable outcomes. there is a lack of consensus regarding the optimal timing of elective surgery following a SARS-CoV-2. This study aimed to find the optimal time to elective surgery to minimize 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality. Methods This is a retrospective chart review of all adult patients who underwent elective surgery with a confirmed preoperative COVID-19 diagnosis between September 2020 and April 2023. Patients’ elective surgeries delays were examined to determine the optimal time to surgery in terms of postoperative complications. Analysis was controlled for age, ASA score, comorbidities, and smoking status. Results 358 records examined, 94.7% had delayed surgery and 5.3% had cancelled surgery. The optimal time to surgery was ≥ 17 days to minimize postoperative pulmonary complications [OR: 0.299, p = 0.048], other postoperative complications [OR: 0.459, p = 0.01], and a decrease in length of hospital stay. In multivariate analysis, the only significant predictors for postoperative complications were time to surgery; surgery ≥ 17 days after diagnosis had better postoperative outcomes [p < 0.001], and COVID-19 symptoms status [p = 0.019]. Conclusion The best time to surgery in this cohort is at least 17 days (or a range of 2–3 weeks) for optimal results. Further research is needed to investigate the effect of such delays on oncological outcomes in this cohort.

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Background The impact of preoperative coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on outcomes after metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) remains incompletely understood, as previous studies were conducted early in the pandemic, when viral strains and management differed. Methods Using the TriNetX database, we conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent MBS between June 2022 and December 2024. Patients with COVID-19 within 4 weeks before surgery were propensity-score matched 1:1 with controls without prior COVID-19 based on demographics, obesity-associated medical condition, and laboratory values. The primary outcome was the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications (i.e., pneumonia or acute respiratory failure), while the secondary outcomes included the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, other infections (i.e., surgical site infection or urinary tract infection), mortality, and emergency department (ED) visits. Results Among 34,652 matched patients, 30-day pulmonary complications showed no significant difference between the COVID-19 and control groups (odds ratio[OR]: 0.898, 95%CI:0.674–1.197, p = 0.4646). However, the COVID-19 group experienced higher rates of AKI (OR:1.407, 95%CI:1.087–1.823, p = 0.0093) and ED visits (OR:1.169, 95%CI:1.082–1.264, p < 0.0001). Other secondary outcomes were similar between the groups. COPD, anemia, and old age were significant risk factors for pulmonary complications. Risk factors for AKI include chronic kidney disease, male sex, anemia, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion Recent preoperative COVID-19 was not associated with increased risk of pulmonary complications following MBS, suggesting surgery need not be delayed for this concern. However, enhanced monitoring of renal complications and post-discharge care may be warranted in patients with identified risk factors.

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Susana González Suárez

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Background: We evaluated the impact of preoperative COVID-19 on early postoperative mortality in patients undergoing time-sensitive cancer surgery. Methods: This retrospective, nationwide cohort study included adult patients who underwent various cancer (thyroid, breast, stomach, colorectal, hepatobiliary, genitourinary, lung, and multiple cancer) surgeries under general anesthesia in South Korea in 2022. Patients were grouped according to the duration from the date of COVID-19 confirmation to the date of surgery (0–2 weeks, 3–4 weeks, 5–6 weeks, and ≥7 weeks). Patients without preoperative COVID-19 also were included. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with Firth correction was performed to investigate the association between preoperative COVID-19 and 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality. The covariates encompassed sociodemographic factors, the type of surgery, and vaccination status in addition to the aforementioned groups. Results: Of the 99,555 patients analyzed, 30,933 (31.1%) were preoperatively diagnosed with COVID-19. Thirty-day mortality was increased in those who underwent surgery within 0–2 weeks after diagnosis of COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–2.12; P = 0.038); beyond 2 weeks, there was no significant increase in mortality. A similar pattern was observed for 90-day mortality. Full vaccination against COVID-19 was associated with reduced 30-day (OR 0.38; 95% CI 0.29–0.50; P < 0.001) and 90-day (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.33–0.46; P < 0.001) mortality. Conclusions: Cancer surgery within 2 weeks of COVID-19 diagnosis was associated with increased early postoperative mortality. These findings support current guidelines that recommend postponing elective surgery for at least 2 weeks after the diagnosis of COVID-19.

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Background The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery is poorly understood. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. The secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation). Findings This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p < 0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p < 0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p < 0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p = 0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p = 0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p = 0·047). Interpretation Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older.

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Aim The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed. Results The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI). Conclusion COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system.

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The COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to end until there is global roll-out of vaccines that protect against severe disease and preferably drive herd immunity. Regulators in numerous countries have authorised or approved COVID-19 vaccines for human use, with more expected to be licensed in 2021. Yet having licensed vaccines is not enough to achieve global control of COVID-19: they also need to be produced at scale, priced affordably, allocated globally so that they are available where needed, and widely deployed in local communities. In this Health Policy paper, we review potential challenges to success in each of these dimensions and discuss policy implications. To guide our review, we developed a dashboard to highlight key characteristics of 26 leading vaccine candidates, including efficacy levels, dosing regimens, storage requirements, prices, production capacities in 2021, and stocks reserved for low-income and middle-income countries. We use a traffic-light system to signal the potential contributions of each candidate to achieving global vaccine immunity, highlighting important trade-offs that policy makers need to consider when developing and implementing vaccination programmes. Although specific datapoints are subject to change as the pandemic response progresses, the dashboard will continue to provide a useful lens through which to analyse the key issues affecting the use of COVID-19 vaccines. We also present original data from a 32-country survey (n=26 758) on potential acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted from October to December, 2020. Vaccine acceptance was highest in Vietnam (98%), India (91%), China (91%), Denmark (87%), and South Korea (87%), and lowest in Serbia (38%), Croatia (41%), France (44%), Lebanon (44%), and Paraguay (51%).

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

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Purpose: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. Patients and methods: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). Results: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). Conclusion: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

Association of Social and Demographic Factors with COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates in the US

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Importance Descriptive data have revealed significant racial/ethnic disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the US, but underlying mechanisms of disparities remain unknown. Objective To examine the association between county-level sociodemographic risk factors and US COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study analyzed the association between US county-level sociodemographic risk factors and COVID-19 incidence using mixed-effects negative binomial regression, and COVID-19 mortality using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Data on COVID-19 incidence and mortality were collected from January 20 to July 29, 2020. The association of social risk factors with weekly cumulative incidence and mortality was also examined by interacting time with the index measures, using a random intercept to account for repeated measures. Main Outcomes and Measures Sociodemographic data from publicly available data sets, including the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), which includes subindices of socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, racial/ethnic minority and English language proficiency status, and housing and transportation. Results As of July 29, 2020, there were a total of 4 289 283 COVID-19 cases and 147 074 COVID-19 deaths in the US. An increase of 0.1 point in SVI score was associated with a 14.3% increase in incidence rate (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.13-1.16; P < .001) and 13.7% increase in mortality rate (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.12-1.16; P < .001), or an excess of 87 COVID-19 cases and 3 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population for a SVI score change from 0.5 to 0.6 in a midsize metropolitan county; subindices were also associated with both outcomes. A 0.1-point increase in the overall SVI was associated with a 0.9% increase in weekly cumulative increase in incidence rate (IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.01; P < .001) and 0.5% increase in mortality rate (IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.01; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this cross-sectional study, a wide range of sociodemographic risk factors, including socioeconomic status, racial/ethnic minority status, household composition, and environmental factors, were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality. To address inequities in the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, these social vulnerabilities and their root causes must be addressed.

Early postoperative outcomes among patients with delayed surgeries after preoperative positive test for SARS‐CoV‐2: A case‐control study from a single institution

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2021

Background There are limited data on surgical complications for patients that have delayed surgery after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) infection. We aimed to analyze the surgical outcomes of patients submitted to surgery after recovery from SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Methods Asymptomatic patients that had surgery delayed after preoperative reverse‐transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) for SARS‐CoV‐2 were matched in a 1:2 ratio for age, type of surgery and American Society of Anesthesiologists to patients with negative RT‐PCR for SARS‐CoV‐2. Results About 1253 patients underwent surgical procedures and were subjected to screening for SARS‐CoV‐2. Forty‐nine cases with a delayed surgery were included in the coronavirus disease (COVID) recovery (COVID‐rec) group and were matched to 98 patients included in the COVID negative (COVID‐neg) group. Overall, 22 (15%) patients had 30‐days postoperative complications, but there was no statistically difference between groups –16.3% for COVID‐rec and 14.3% for COVID‐neg, respectively (odds ratio [OR] 1.17:95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45–3.0; p = .74). Moreover, we did not find difference regarding grades more than or equal to 3 complication rates – 8.2% for COVID‐rec and 6.1% for COVID‐neg (OR 1.36:95%CI 0.36‐5.0; p = .64). There were no pulmonary complications or SARS‐CoV‐2 related infection and no deaths within the 30‐days after surgery. Conclusions Our study suggests that patients with delayed elective surgeries due to asymptomatic preoperative positive SARS‐CoV‐2 test are not at higher risk of postoperative complications.

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Nov 2020

Objective To quantify the association of cancer treatment delay and mortality for each four week increase in delay to inform cancer treatment pathways. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Published studies in Medline from 1 January 2000 to 10 April 2020. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Curative, neoadjuvant, and adjuvant indications for surgery, systemic treatment, or radiotherapy for cancers of the bladder, breast, colon, rectum, lung, cervix, and head and neck were included. The main outcome measure was the hazard ratio for overall survival for each four week delay for each indication. Delay was measured from diagnosis to first treatment, or from the completion of one treatment to the start of the next. The primary analysis only included high validity studies controlling for major prognostic factors. Hazard ratios were assumed to be log linear in relation to overall survival and were converted to an effect for each four week delay. Pooled effects were estimated using DerSimonian and Laird random effect models. Results The review included 34 studies for 17 indications (n=1 272 681 patients). No high validity data were found for five of the radiotherapy indications or for cervical cancer surgery. The association between delay and increased mortality was significant (P<0.05) for 13 of 17 indications. Surgery findings were consistent, with a mortality risk for each four week delay of 1.06-1.08 (eg, colectomy 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.12; breast surgery 1.08, 1.03 to 1.13). Estimates for systemic treatment varied (hazard ratio range 1.01-1.28). Radiotherapy estimates were for radical radiotherapy for head and neck cancer (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.14), adjuvant radiotherapy after breast conserving surgery (0.98, 0.88 to 1.09), and cervix cancer adjuvant radiotherapy (1.23, 1.00 to 1.50). A sensitivity analysis of studies that had been excluded because of lack of information on comorbidities or functional status did not change the findings. Conclusions Cancer treatment delay is a problem in health systems worldwide. The impact of delay on mortality can now be quantified for prioritisation and modelling. Even a four week delay of cancer treatment is associated with increased mortality across surgical, systemic treatment, and radiotherapy indications for seven cancers. Policies focused on minimising system level delays to cancer treatment initiation could improve population level survival outcomes.

Perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infections increase mortality, pulmonary complications, and thromboembolic events: A Dutch, multicenter, matched-cohort clinical study

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Full-text available

Oct 2020

Background A direct comparison of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-positive patients with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 negative control group undergoing an operative intervention during the current pandemic is lacking, and a reliable estimate of the assumed difference in morbidity and mortality between both patient categories remains unknown. Methods We included all consecutive patients with a confirmed pre- or postoperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive status (operated in 27 hospitals) and negative control patients (operated in 4 hospitals) undergoing emergency or elective operations. A propensity score-matched comparison of clinical outcomes was performed between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive and negative tested patients (control group). Primary outcome was overall 30-day mortality rate between both groups. Main secondary outcomes were overall, pulmonary, and thromboembolic complications. Results In total, 161 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive and 342 control severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 negative patients were included in this study. The 30-day overall postoperative mortality rate was greater in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive cohort compared with the negative control group (16% vs 4% respectively; P = .007). After propensity score matching, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive group consisted of 123 patients (median 70 years of age [interquartile range 59–77] and 55% male) were compared with 196 patients in the matched control group (median 69 years (interquartile range 58–75] and 53% male). The 30-day mortality rate and risk were greater in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive group compared with the matched control group (12% vs 4%; P = .009 and odds ratio 3.4 [95% confidence interval 1.5–8.5]; P = .005, respectively). Overall, pulmonary and thromboembolic complications occurred more often in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive patients (P < .01). Conclusion Patients diagnosed with perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have an increased risk of 30-day mortality, pulmonary complications, and thromboembolic events. These findings serve as an evidence-based argument to postpone elective surgery and selected emergency cases.

Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

Article