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Early evaluation of organ failure using MELD-XI in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients

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Abstract

PURPOSECritically ill elderly patients who suffer from Sars-CoV-2 disease are at high risk for organ failure. The modified MELD-XI score has not been evaluated for outcome prediction in these most vulnerable patients.METHODS The Corona Virus disease (COVID19) in Very Elderly Intensive Care Patients study (COVIP, NCT04321265) prospectively recruited patients on intensive care units (ICU), who were = 70 years. Data were collected from March 2020 to February 2021. The MELD-XI score was calculated using the highest serum bilirubin and creatinine on ICU admission. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess associations between the MELD-XI score and mortality. The primary outcome was 30-day-mortality, the secondary outcomes were ICU- and 3-month-mortality.RESULTSIn total, data from 2,993 patients were analyzed. Most patients had a MELD-XI <12 on admission (76%). The patients with MELD-XI = 12 had a significantly higher 30-day-, ICU- and 3-month-mortality (44%vs 64%, and 42%vs. 59%, and 57%vs. 76%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for multiple confounders, MELD-XI = 12 remained significantly associated with 30-day- (aOR 1.572, CI 1.268-1.949, p < 0.001), ICU-, and 3-month-mortality.CONCLUSION In critically ill elderly intensive care patients with COVID-19, the MELD-XI score constitutes a valuable tool for an early outcome prediction.

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... While our study was conducted, few studies were had already evaluated the relationship between in-hospital (short-term) mortality o, length of intensive care, length of hospital stay, and long-term mortality of COVID-19 and the MELD-XI score [26][27] . In one of these studies, a higher MELD-XI score was found to be associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients without liver disease, and it was stated that it could be a helpful tool for other risk modalities 26 . ...
... In one of these studies, a higher MELD-XI score was found to be associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients without liver disease, and it was stated that it could be a helpful tool for other risk modalities 26 . In another study, it was shown that the MELD-XI score may be useful in predicting early mortality in the elderly and critically ill patients 27 . ...
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... The present study has some methodological limitations in common with the other COVIP-studies [11,26,[39][40][41][42]. COVIP did not contain a control group of younger COVID-19 ...
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Background: Intensivists keep getting challenged with prognostication after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The model for end-stage liver disease, excluding INR (MELD-XI) score has proven valuable for assessing illness severity. Serum lactate is a readily available and established indicator of general stress and tissue hypoxia. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of MELD-XI combined with serum lactate in patients after CPR. Methods: A retrospective analysis on 106 patients after CPR was performed. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to evaluate associations with 30-day mortality and neurological outcome by means of Cerebral Performance Category (CPC). An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden index. Patients were then divided into subgroups based on the optimal cut-offs for MELD-XI and serum lactate. Results: MELD-XI and lactate were independently associated with mortality. The respective cut-offs were MELD-XI >12 and lactate ≥2.5 mmol/L. Patients were split into three groups: lactate <2.5 mmol/L and MELD-XI ≤12 (low-risk; n=32), lactate ≥2.5 mmol/L or MELD-XI >12 (medium-risk; n=39), and lactate ≥ 2.5mmol/L and MELD-XI >12 (high-risk; n=33). The mortality rates were 6%, 26% and 61% in the low, medium and high-risk group. This combined model yielded in the highest predictive abilities (AUC 0.78 95%CI 0.68-0.85; p=0.03 vs. AUC 0.66 for SOFA score). Worse neurological outcome (CPC 3 or 4) was more common in the medium and high-risk group (6.25%, 10.3% and 9.1%). Conclusions: The combination of MELD-XI and lactate concentration at ICU admission was superior to the more complex SOFA score for prediction of mortality after CPR.
Article
Background: The growing proportion of elderly intensive care patients constitutes a public health challenge. The benefit of critical care in these patients remains unclear. We compared outcomes in elderly versus very elderly subjects receiving mechanical ventilation. Methods: In total, 5,557 mechanically ventilated subjects were included in our post hoc retrospective analysis, a subgroup of the VENTILA study. We divided the cohort into 2 subgroups on the basis of age: very elderly subjects (age ≥ 80 y; n = 1,430), and elderly subjects (age 65-79 y; n = 4,127). A propensity score on being very elderly was calculated. Evaluation of associations with 28-d mortality was done with logistic regression analysis. Results: Very elderly subjects were clinically sicker as expressed by higher SAPS II scores (53 ± 18 vs 50 ± 18, P < .001), and their rates of plateau pressure < 30 cm H2O were higher, whereas other parameters did not differ. The 28-d mortality was higher in very elderly subjects (42% vs 34%, P < .001) and remained unchanged after propensity score adjustment (adjusted odds ratio 1.31 [95% CI 1.16-1.49], P < .001). Conclusions: Age was an independent and unchangeable risk factor for death in mechanically ventilated subjects. However, survival rates of very elderly subjects were > 50%. Denial of critical care based solely on age is not justified. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT02731898.).
Article
Purpose: Early lactate clearance is an important parameter for prognosis assessment and therapy control in sepsis. Patients with a lactate clearance >0% might differ from patients with an inferior clearance in terms of intensive care management and outcomes. This study analyzes a large collective with regards to baseline risk distribution and outcomes. Methods: In total, 3299 patients were included in this analysis, consisting of 1528 (46%) ≤0% and 1771 (54%) >0% patients. The primary endpoint was intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were used to compare both groups: A baseline model (model 1) with lactate clearance as a fixed effect and ICU as a random effect was installed. For model 2, patient characteristics (model 2) were included. For model 3, intensive care treatment (mechanical ventilation and vasopressors) was added to the model. Models 1 and 2 were used to evaluate the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Model 3 was only used to evaluate the primary outcomes. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with respective 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results: The cohorts had no relevant differences regarding the gender, BMI, age, heart rate, body temperature, and baseline lactate. Neither the primary infection focuses nor the ethnic background differed between both groups. In both groups, the most common infection sites were of pulmonary origin, the urinary tract, and the gastrointestinal tract. Patients with lactate clearance >0% evidenced lower sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores (7 ± 6 versus 9 ± 6; p < 0.001) and creatinine (1.53 ± 1.49 versus 1.80 ± 1.67; p < 0.001). The ICU mortality differed significantly (14% versus 32%), and remained this way after multivariable adjustment for patient characteristics and intensive care treatment (aOR 0.43 95% CI 0.36-0.53; p < 0.001). In the additional sensitivity analysis, the lack of lactate clearance was associated with a worse prognosis in each subgroup. Conclusion: In this large collective of septic patients, the 6 h lactate clearance is an independent method for outcome prediction.
Article
Purpose To assess the presence of sublingual microcirculatory and skin perfusion alterations in COVID-19 pneumonia. Materials and methods This is a preliminary report of a prospective observational study performed in four teaching intensive care units. We studied 27 mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome secondary to COVID-19. Sublingual microcirculation was assessed by hand-held videomicroscopy. A software-assisted analysis of videos was performed. We also measured capillary refill time. Results Patients were hemodynamically stable with normal lactate (1.8 [1.6–2.5] mmol/L) and high D-dimer (1.30 [0.58–2.93] μg/mL). Capillary refill time was prolonged (3.5 [3.0–5.0] s). Compared to previously reported normal values, total and perfused vascular density (21.9 ± 3.9 and 21.0 ± 3.5 mm/mm²) and heterogeneity flow index (0.91 ± 0.24) were high; and the proportion of perfused vessels (0.96 ± 0.03), microvascular flow index (2.79 ± 0.10), and red blood cell velocity (1124 ± 161 μm/s) were reduced. The proportion of perfused vessels was inversely correlated with total vascular density (Pearson r = −0.41, P = 0.03). Conclusions COVID-19 patients showed an altered tissue perfusion. Sublingual microcirculation was characterized by decreases in the proportion of perfused vessel and flow velocity along with high vascular densities. This last finding might be related to enhanced angiogenesis or hypoxia-induced capillary recruitment.
Article
Background : Female and male critically ill septic patients might differ with regards to risk distribution, management, and outcomes. We aimed to compare male versus female septic patients in a large collective with regards to baseline risk distribution and outcomes. Methods : In total, 17,146 patients were included in this analysis, 8781 (51%) male and 8365 (49%) female patients. The primary endpoint was ICU-mortality. Baseline characteristics and data on organ support were documented. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were used to assess sex-specific differences. Results : Female patients had lower SOFA scores (5 ± 5 vs. 6 ± 6; p<0.001) and creatinine (1.20±1.35 vs. 1.40±1.54; p<0.001). In the total cohort, the ICU mortality was 10% and similar between female and male (10% vs. 10%; p = 0.34) patients. The ICU remained similar between sexes after adjustment in model-1 (aOR 1.05 95% CI 0.95–1.16; p = 0.34); model-2 (aOR 0.91 95% CI 0.79–1.05; p = 0.18) and model-3 (aOR 0.93 95% CI 0.80–1.07; p = 0.29). In sensitivity analyses, no major sex-specific differences in mortality could be detected. Conclusion : In this study no clinically relevant sex-specific mortality differences could be detected in critically ill septic patients. Possible subtle gender differences could play a minor role in the acute situation due to the severity of the disease in septic patients.
Article
Objective: Diagnostic and risk stratification in intensive and emergency medicine must be fast, accurate, and reliable. The assessment of sublingual microcirculation is a promising tool for this purpose. However, its value is limited because the measurement is time-consuming in unstable patients. This proof-of-concept validation study examines the non-inferiority of a reduced frame rate in image acquisition regarding quality, measurement results, and time. Methods: This prospective observational study included healthy volunteers. Sublingual measurement of microcirculation was performed using a sidestream dark field camera (SDF, MicroVision Medical®). Video-quality was evaluated with a modified MIQS (microcirculation image quality score). AVA 4.3C software calculated microcirculatory parameters. Results: Thirty-one volunteers were included. There was no impact of the frame rate on the time needed by the software algorithm to measure one video was 4.5 + 0.5 Minutes for AVA 4.3C. 86 frames per video provided non inferior video quality (MIQS 1.8 + 0.7 for 86 frames versus MIQS 2.2 + 0.6 for 215 frames, p < 0.05), equal results for all microcirculatory parameters, but did not result in an advantage in terms of speed. No complications occurred. Conclusion: Video captures with 86 frames offer equal video quality and results for consensus parameters compared to 215 frames. However, there was no advantage regarding the time needed for the overall measurement procedure.
Article
Purpose The approach to limit therapy in very old intensive care unit patients (VIPs) significantly differs between regions. The focus of this multicenter analysis is to illuminate, whether the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a suitable tool for risk stratification in VIPs admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in Germany. Furthermore, this investigation elucidates the impact of therapeutic limitation on the length of stay and mortality in this setting. Methods German cohorts' data from two multinational studies (VIP-1, VIP-2) were combined. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate associations with mortality. Results 415 acute VIPs were included. Frail VIPs (CFS > 4) were older (85 [IQR 82–88] vs. 83 [IQR 81–86] years p < .001) and suffered from an increased 30-day-mortality (43.4% versus 23.9%, p < .0001). CFS was an independent predictor of 30-day-mortality in a multivariate logistic regression model (aOR 1.23 95%CI 1.04–1.46 p = .02). Patients with any limitation of life-sustaining therapy had a significantly increased 30-day mortality (86% versus 16%, p < .001) and length of stay (144 [IQR 72–293] versus 96 [IQR 47.25–231.5] hours, p = .026). Conclusion In German ICUs, any limitation of life-sustaining therapy in VIPs is associated with a significantly increased ICU length of stay and mortality. CFS reliably predicts the outcome.
Article
Background: Dehydration occurs frequently in older patients and constitutes a significant clinical problem. Objective: This proof-of-concept study examines whether 1) sublingual measurement in dehydrated old patients is feasible, 2) frailty and incompliance in old, awake patients affects video-quality, 3) dehydration impacts microcirculationMETHODS:This prospective observational study included clinically dehydrated patients aged ≥65 years immediately after admission. Dehydration was assessed clinically. A sidestream dark field camera (SDF) was used for measurement. Video-quality was evaluated with MIQS (microcirculation image quality score). Both AVA 4.3C- and AVA POEM-software analyzed the videos. Seventeen patients ≥65 years not showing dehydration served as control. Results: Thirteen patients (8 female) were included. The average age was 83±8 years. The mini-mental test was 17±15 points, the Clinical Frailty Scale 4±3, the Barthel-Index 59±39. None of these parameters correlated with MIQS (3.4±4.2 SD ("acceptable")). Dehydrated patients had a slightly impaired microcirculation, with a significantly lower percentage of perfused small vessels compared to control (83.1±7.7% versus 88.0±6.0%, P < 0.05). After rehydration, there was acute improvement in the microcirculation. Conclusions: Sublingual microcirculatory SDF-measurement is both, safe and valid for dehydrated old patients - regardless of frailty, age or cognitive performance. Dehydration leads to an impaired microcirculation.
Article
Rationale and objectives Acidosis and hyperlactatemia predict outcome in critically ill patients. We assessed BE and pH for risk prediction capabilities in a sub-group of septic patients in the MIMIC-III database. Methods Associations with mortality were assessed by logistic regression analysis in 5586 septic patients. Baseline parameters, lactate concentrations, pH, and BE were analyzed at baseline and after 6 hours. Measurements and Main Results We combined acidosis (defined as either BE ≤-6 and/or pH ≤7.3) and hyperlactatemia and split the cohort into three subgroups: low-risk (no acidosis and lactate <2.3 mmol/L; n = 2294), medium-risk (either acidosis or lactate >2.3 mmol/L; n = 2125) and high-risk (both acidosis and lactate >2.3 mmol/L; n = 1167). Mortality was 14%, 20% and 38% (p<0.001) in low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients, respectively. The predictiveness of this model (AUC 0.63 95%CI 0.61-0.65) was higher compared to acidosis (AUC 0.59 95%CI 0.57-0.61; p<0.001) and lactate >2.3 mmol/L (AUC 0.60 95%CI 0.58-0.62; p<0.001) alone. Hyperlactatemia alone was only moderately predictive for acidosis (AUC 0.60 95%CI 0.59-0.62). Conclusions Acidosis and hyperlactatemia can occur independently to a certain degree. Combining acidosis and hyperlactatemia in a model yielded higher predictiveness for ICU-mortality. Septic patients with acidosis should be treated even more aggressively in the future.
Article
Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening disease. We evaluated the prognostic utility of Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score for predicting mortality in a cohort of critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation. Methods: In total, 11,091 mechanically ventilated patients were included in our post-hoc retrospective analysis, a subgroup of the VENTILA study (NCT02731898). Evaluation of associations with mortality was done by logistic and Cox regression analysis, an optimal cut-off was calculated using the Youden Index. We divided the cohort in two sub-groups based on their MELD-XI score at the optimal cut-off (12 score points). Results: Peak-, plateau- and positive end-expiratory pressure were higher in patients with MELD-XI>12. Patients with MELD-XI>12 had higher driving pressures (14 ± 6 cmH2O versus 13 ± 6; p < 0.001). MELD-XI was associated with 28-day mortality after correction for relevant cofounders including SAPS II and ventilation pressures (HR 1.04 95%CI 1.03-1.05; p < 0.001. Patients with MELD-XI>12 evidenced both increased hospital (46% versus 27%; p < 0.001) and 28-day mortality (39% versus 22%). Conclusions: MELD-XI is independently associated with mortality and constitutes a useful and easily applicable tool for risk stratification in critically ill patients receiving mechanical ventilation. Trial registration: NCT02731898, registered 4 April 2016.
Article
In a context of global organ shortage, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score seems to be a fair prioritization tool, with a paradigm: “sickest first.” Since its introduction in the United States in 2002, it has been rapidly adopted by transplant centers and organ sharing agencies around the world. The MELD score showed its effectiveness with a 12% reduction in waiting list mortality in the United States. Its success is linked to its simplicity, the use of basic variables (serum creatinine, serum bilirubin, and international normalized ratio [INR]), and its ability to predict short-term mortality, particularly on the transplant waiting list. However, this score is not perfect: its variables may have disadvantages for some patients, especially women, with serum creatinine and interlaboratory variability of the INR. The MELD score does not take into account some variables associated with poor short-term prognosis in cirrhotic patients. In addition, it is currently capped at 40, which results in the exclusion of sicker patients who could greatly benefit from transplantation. Finally, the MELD score does not accurately reflect the prognosis of several conditions, requiring a MELD exception system. Some solutions have been suggested such as MELD-Na or MELD uncapping, but it has not yet been fully accepted by all transplant centers.
Article
Purpose of review: Adequate tissue perfusion is of utmost importance to avoid organ failure in patients with cardiogenic shock. Within the recent years, the microcirculation, defined as the perfusion of the smallest vessels, has been identified to play a crucial role. Microcirculatory changes may include capillary flow disturbances as well as changes in the density of perfused vessels. Due to the availability of new technologies to assess the microcirculation, interesting new data came up and it is the purpose of this review to summarize recent studies in the field. Recent findings: Nowadays, an increasing number of studies confirm parameters of the microcirculation, derived by intravital microscopy, to represent strong outcome predictors in cardiogenic shock. In addition, microcirculation as read-out parameter in innovative clinical studies has meanwhile been accepted as serious endpoint. Treatment strategies such as mechanical assist devices, blood pressure regulating agents or fluids use tissue perfusion and microcirculatory network density as targets in addition to clinical perfusion evaluation and decreasing serum lactate levels. Summary: The parameter most frequently used to detect tissue malperfusion is serum lactate. Novel, noninvasive methods to quantify microvascular perfusion have the potential to guide treatment in terms of optimizing organ perfusion and oxygenation probably paving the way for an individualized therapy.
Article
Purpose Changes of lactate concentration over time were reported to be associated with survival in septic patients. We aimed to evaluate delta-lactate (ΔLac) 24 h after admission (Δ24Lac) to an intensive care unit (ICU) in critically ill patients for short- and long-term prognostic relevance. Methods In total, 26,285 lactate measurements of 2191 patients admitted to a German ICU were analyzed. Inclusion criterion was a lactate concentration at admission above 2.0 mmol/L. Maximum lactate concentrations of day 1 and day 2 were used to calculate Δ24Lac. Follow-up of patients was performed retrospectively. Association of Δ24Lac and both in-hospital and long-term mortality were investigated. An optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden index. Results Patients with lower Δ24Lac were of similar age, but clinically sicker. As continuous variable, higher Δ24Lac was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality (per 1% Δ24Lac; HR 0.987 95%CI 0.985–0.990; p < 0.001) and an optimal Δ24Lac cut-off was calculated at 19%. Δ24Lac ≤ 19% was associated with both increased in-hospital (15% vs 43%; OR 4.11; 95%CI 3.23–5.21; p < 0.001) and long-term mortality (HR 1.54 95%CI 1.28–1.87; p < 0.001), even after correction for APACHE II, need for catecholamines and intubation. We matched 256 patients with Δ24Lac ≤ 19% to case–controls > 19% corrected for APACHE II scores, baseline lactate level and sex: Δ24Lac ≤ 19% remained associated with lower in-hospital and long-term survival. Conclusions Lower Δ24Lac was robustly associated with adverse outcome in critically ill patients, even after correction for confounders. Δ24Lac might constitute an independent, easily available and important parameter for risk stratification in the critically ill.
Article
Purpose: We aimed (i) to evaluate Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score for prediction of mortality in a cohort of critically ill patients and (ii) to investigate associations of MELD-XI with microcirculation and (iii) to evaluate microcirculation for prediction of mortality in high-risk patients, e.g., with high MELD-XI scores. Methods: 308 patients were included in our retrospective analysis, a subgroup of the multicenter micro-SOAP-study. Microcirculation was evaluated by Sidestream Dark Field (SDF) imaging. Evaluation of associations with mortality was done by logistic regression analysis, an optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden Index. We divided the cohort in two sub-groups based on their MELD-XI score at the optimal cut-off (12 score points). Results: Patients with a MELD-XI > 12 points were of similar age (60 ± 1 years vs 62 ± 2 years; p = 0.32), but clinically sicker as mirrored by higher APACHE II scores (20 ± 1 vs 16 ± 1; p < 0.001). In the MELD-XI > 12 cohort in-hospital mortality was significantly higher compared to the MELD ≤ 12 group (48% vs 24%%; HR 2.98 95%CI 1.76-5.04; p = 0.003) and MELD-XI score was associated with mortality even after correction for relevant clinical confounders (HR 1.04 95%CI 1.01-1.07; p = 0.004) There were no associations between MELD-XI and parameters of microvascular perfusion. Conclusions: MELD-XI is associated with in-hospital mortality and constitutes a useful tool for risk stratification in intensive care medicine. Interestingly, there were no associations between MELD-XI and microcirculation. Possibly parameters of the microcirculation present an online tool of hemodynamic assessment while MELD-XI presents an assessment of already established organ failure.
Article
Aim: Multi-organ dysfunction often complicates the natural course of acute heart failure (AHF) and identifies patients with poor prognosis. The MELD score (Model of End-Stage Liver Dysfunction) combines data reflecting liver and kidney function, which makes it a potentially useful tool for the assessment of patients with AHF. To assess the prognostic utility of the MELD score in patients with AHF. Methods and results: The MELD score was calculated on admission and during hospital stay (days 2-3) using a formula that does not take into account the international normalized ratio (MELD XI). The study population consisted of 203 AHF patients (mean age 65 ± 12 years, 76% male). The mean MELD XI score was -14.8 ± 4.5 points on admission and 13.9 ± 4.3 points during hospitalization. Contributors of elevated MELD XI score at baseline and during hospital stay were isolated increase in creatinine in 22-25%, isolated increase in bilirubin in 17-19%, and abnormal values of both in 40-46% of patients. During 1-year follow-up, 67 (33%) patients died. After adjustment for well-established prognosticators, MELD XI score at baseline and during hospital stay were significant predictors of poor outcome [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.11 (1.05-1.2) and 1.14 (1.09-1.2), respectively, P < 0.001]. An increase in the MELD XI score during hospital stay occurred in 31% of patients and was related to increased risk of death at 1 year [1.97 (1.2-3.2), P < 0.005]. Conclusions: Impairment of hepato-renal function defined by the MELD XI score is common and carries unfavourable prognosis in AHF patients.
Article
Background: The aim of this study was to determine the utility of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) in predicting early outcomes (30 days and 1 year) and late outcomes (5 years) in patients after orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). Methods: The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for all adult patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing OHT from 2000 to 2012. A MELD-XI was calculated and the population stratified into score quartiles. Early and late survivals were compared among the MELD-XI cohorts. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to determine the capacity of MELD-XI (when modeled both as a categoric and a continuous variable) to predict 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. Conditional models were also designed to determine the effect of early mortality on long-term survival. Results: A total of 22,597 patients were included for analysis. The MELD-XI cutoff scores were established as follows: low (≤10.5), low-intermediate (10.6 to 12.6), intermediate-high (12.7 to 16.4), and high (>16.4). The high MELD-XI cohort experienced statistically worse 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year unconditional survivals when compared with patients with low scores (p < 0.001). Similarly, a high MELD-XI score was also predictive of early and late mortality (p < 0.001) after risk adjustment. There was, however, no difference in 5-year survival between the high score and low score cohorts after accounting for 1-year deaths. Subanalysis of patients bridged to transplant with a continuous-flow left ventricular assist device demonstrated similar findings. Conclusions: This is the first known study to examine the relationship between a high MELD-XI score and outcomes in patients after OHT. Patients with hepatic or renal dysfunction before OHT should be closely monitored and aggressively optimized as early mortality appears to drive long-term outcomes.
Article
Background: We sought to determine the ability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) to predict short-term and long-term outcomes in pediatric patients undergoing orthotopic heart transplant. Methods: The United Network for Organ Sharing Database was queried for all pediatric patients (aged 1 to 18 years) undergoing orthotopic heart transplant from 2000 to 2012. The logarithmic relationship between the serum creatinine and bilirubin was used to calculate the MELD-XI score. Lowess smoothing plots were referenced, and a score threshold of 12.2 was used to stratify patients into low (75%) and high (25%) MELD-XI cohorts. Patient-specific characteristics, intraoperative variables, and postoperative outcomes were compared between the two cohorts. Differences in survival at 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years between the MELD-XI cohorts were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to determine the risk-adjusted effect of a high MELD-XI score on death. Results: After patients with missing MELD-XI scores were excluded, 2,939 patients met the inclusion criteria. Unconditional 30-day (93.1% vs 98.0%, p < 0.001), 1-year (85.9% vs 92.9%, p < 0.001), and 5-year (71.2% vs 79.5%, p < 0.001) survivals were significantly worse in the high-score cohort. However, 1-year survival excluding 90-day deaths (94.9% vs 95.8%, p = 0.29) and 5-year survival excluding 1-year deaths (82.8% vs 85.6%, p = 0.09) were statistically equivalent. When modeled as a categoric variable, a high MELD-XI score was an independent predictor of death at 30 days (hazard ratio, 2.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 4.45; p < 0.001), 1 year (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.42 to 2.48, p < 0.001), and 5 years (hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 1.77; p < 0.001). For every 1-point increase in the MELD-XI score, mortality increased 11% at 30 days, 7% at 1 year, and 4% at 5 years (p < 0.001). The MELD-XI was not predictive of conditional mortality at 1 year or 5 years. Conclusions: The MELD-XI scoring system can be used in pediatric orthotopic heart transplant to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes. Because long-term survival is largely driven by early death, renal insufficiency and congestive hepatopathy should be optimized before transplant.
Article
The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%-20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue.
Clinical characteristics and day-90 outcomes of critically ill adults with COVID-19 a prospective cohort study
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