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Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels

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Abstract

The link below is to a report that examines what is going to be required to fully phase out fossil fuels as an energy source and replace the entire existing system with renewable energy sources and transportation. This is done by estimating what it would be required to replace the entire fossil fuel system in 2018, for the US, Europe, China, and global economies. This report examines the size and scope of the existing transport fleet, and scope of fossil fuel industrial actions. To replace fossil fuelled ICE vehicles, Electric Vehicles, H2 cell vehicles for cars, trucks, rail, and maritime shipping was examined. To phase out fossil fuel power generation, solar, wind, hydro, biomass, geothermal and nuclear were all examined. Conclusions were drawn after comparing all these different aspects.
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... However, beyond the evident social and environmental impacts of mineral exploration and mining, one fundamental question that remains regarding the whole supply chain of battery minerals is the sufficiency of raw materials for the green energy transition. In fact, there are quite recent estimations that not enough production can be ramped up in the necessary time to achieve carbon neutrality and that other solutions should be sought beyond traffic electrification and wind turbines, such as a systemic societal change in which consumption is reduced and the circular economy is strengthened(Granvik et al. 2021, IEA 2021b, Michaux 2021. ...
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... In 2019, there was 7.2 million Electric Vehicles (IEA 2020). The global fleet of vehicles was estimated to be 1.416 billion vehicles (Michaux 2021). This means that just 0.51% of the global fleet is currently EV technology, and that 99.49% of the global fleet has yet to be replaced. ...
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The start of the development of a new system to assess when we should use resources and when we should not, to meet a fundamental change in the industrial ecosystem. Energy limits and materials limits are coming. The growth based economics may well transition into contraction based economics. In this working environment, how do we decide what to do and why?
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Soil phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural systems will limit food and feed production in the future. Here, we combine spatially distributed global soil erosion estimates (only considering sheet and rill erosion by water) with spatially distributed global P content for cropland soils to assess global soil P loss. The world's soils are currently being depleted in P in spite of high chemical fertilizer input. Africa (not being able to afford the high costs of chemical fertilizer) as well as South America (due to non-efficient organic P management) and Eastern Europe (for a combination of the two previous reasons) have the highest P depletion rates. In a future world, with an assumed absolute shortage of mineral P fertilizer, agricultural soils worldwide will be depleted by between 4-19 kg ha −1 yr −1 , with average losses of P due to erosion by water contributing over 50% of total P losses.
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Review of the potential for electrofuel technologies to contribute to transport decarbonisation in Europe
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Human-induced soil erosion is a serious threat to global sustainability, endangering global food security, driving desertification and biodiversity loss, and degrading other vital ecosystem services. To help assess this threat, we amassed a global inventory of soil erosion rates consisting of 10,030 plot years of data from 255 sites under conventional agriculture and soil conservation management. We combined these with existing soil formation data to estimate soil sustainability expressed as a lifespan, here defined as the time taken for a topsoil of 30 cm to be eroded. We show that just under a third of conventionally managed soils in the dataset exhibit lifespans of <200 years, with 16% <100 years. Conservation measures substantially extend lifespan estimates, and in many cases promote soil thickening, with 39% of soils under conservation measures exhibiting lifespans exceeding 10,000 years. However, the efficacy of conservation measures is influenced by site- and region-specific variables such as climate, slope and soil texture. Finally, we show that short soil lifespans of <100 years are widespread globally, including some of the wealthiest nations. These findings highlight the pervasiveness, magnitude, and in some cases the immediacy of the threat posed by soil erosion to near-term soil sustainability. Yet, this work also demonstrates that we have a toolbox of conservation methods that have potential to ameliorate this issue, and their implementation can help ensure that the world's soils continue to provide for us for generations to come.
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