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Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels
Abstract
The link below is to a report that examines what is going to be required to fully phase out fossil fuels as an energy source and replace the entire existing system with renewable energy sources and transportation. This is done by estimating what it would be required to replace the entire fossil fuel system in 2018, for the US, Europe, China, and global economies. This report examines the size and scope of the existing transport fleet, and scope of fossil fuel industrial actions.
To replace fossil fuelled ICE vehicles, Electric Vehicles, H2 cell vehicles for cars, trucks, rail, and maritime shipping was examined. To phase out fossil fuel power generation, solar, wind, hydro, biomass, geothermal and nuclear were all examined. Conclusions were drawn after comparing all these different aspects.
... Concurrently, policy decisions and instruments such as the EU Green Deal (https: //ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en (accessed on 14 July 2023) and the Net-Zero Industry Act [4] are pushing forward the transition towards an economy with no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, increasing the demand for primary raw materials in the coming years and decades [5]. Moreover, the EU Green Deal and the Circular Economy Action Plan [6] state that the energy transition should be based on materials obtained in full respect of human rights as well as compliance with social and ecological standards. ...
... Besides, there are several interrelated difficulties associated with phasing out the current work done by fossil fuels and replacing it with the new renewable energy systems. In particular, these include the high intermittency of renewable power generation, the high requirements of multiple potentially scarce metals, particularly for large-scale storage (Michaux 2021a;2021b), and a comparatively lower power density than fossil fuels (Smil, 2015). Also, the new renewables might have a lower energy return on energy invested (EROI) compared to fossil fuels (Hall and Day, 2009;Hall et al., 2014), although several EROI analyses available in the literature have been criticized in terms of methodological rigor (Raugei, 2023), and the issues of boundaries and methodological harmonization for comparative EROI analyses are still being discussed (Raugei, 2019;Murphy et al., 2022). ...
We formulate a stochastic bottom-up model for the rate of oil production in a region by combining a size-biased sampling model of the discovery process (Barouch-Kaufman model), a birth process model for the discovery times, and field-level production profiles. For the size-biased sampling model we make the usual assumptions plus the assumption of a truncated field-size distribution and a Poisson prior distribution for the total number of fields. We then propose two approaches by which the size-biased sampling model can be formally connected to a model for the discovery times within a stochastic birth process framework. Using a truncated lognormal field-size distribution, parameter estimation via the expectation-maximization algorithm is repeated for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Norway based on the discovery history up to several different years. Combining the estimation results with the other components of the bottom-up model, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations for each region to derive the posterior distribution (conditioning on the discovery history) for the time path of the rate of oil production.
JEL classification: Q35, Q47, C83, C63
... For some raw materials, known resources may be in the hands of a few. According to an estimate by the Geological Survey (Michaux 2021), it will not be possible to replace fossil fuels globally with renewables alone, such as solar and wind power, because the necessary raw materials (lithium, nickel, cobalt) are simply not available in sufficient quantities. In addition, other renewable energy sources, such as hydropower or biomass, are difficult to increase for nature reasons. ...
Finland is committed to aim for a carbon-neutral energy system by 2023. The transition is in
progress with increasing shares of various forms of low-carbon production and significant
reductions in the share of energy production from coal and natural gas, for example. Finland
has traditionally been strong in the use of renewable energy thanks to wood-based fuels
availability. However, a significant part of the energy is still produced from fossil fuels in
Finland.
The energy system has been in constant evolution throughout history. Recently, climate change
mitigation has made carbon neutrality the single biggest goal in energy system development,
which has a major impact on current decision-making. In addition to carbon neutrality, the
change must consider two other particularly important and ongoing societal objectives such as
security of supply and service of the energy system, and cost-effectiveness.
The future energy system will be affected by many expectations and parallel developments.
These include the arrival of new energy sources on the market and their integration into the
system, the progress of electrification, the development of energy technologies and changes in
cost-efficiency, the growing importance of energy storage, the carbon capture development,
and plans for the hydrogen economy. There are numerous possible directions for development,
and they are not mutually exclusive. However, it creates science-based, urgent information
needs and challenges for energy system decision-making. As decisions have to be taken that
simultaneously create the conditions for the achievement of several objectives, partly crossimpacting
each other.
This report offers a clear and comprehensive overview of energy system status in Finland
including the main trends. The report provides basic general information of the different types
of energy production, energy storage, energy efficiency and savings as well as the entire energy
system, including system integration. In addition, the aim is to present basic information of the
different types of energy production, the current state of the energy system and future trends.
The report is intended for all those who are interested in the trends in the energy system and
aims to present relatively complex entities in an understandable way and to provide an
overview of the factors involved in the development of the energy system. The report has been
written by 19 experts in their field from the Faculty of Energy Systems at LUT University.
The report starts with a summary of the views of public organisations on future trends and
scenarios for energy systems. The most relevant of these are the views and scenario calculations
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the EU, the Nordic Council of
Ministers' organisation called Nordic Energy Research (NER) and the Finnish Climate and
Energy Strategy. The views contain the same basic elements related to energy systems and also
partly contain many different future scenarios. For example, the evaluation models reviewed
by the IPCC include more than 2 500 scenarios.
The report presents basic information on the technologies and characteristics of all the main
energy production methods in Finland, considering the sustainability of the production method
and the different needs of society. In addition, reports covers topics such as energy system
integration costs, hydrogen economy, carbon capture and utilisation, energy storage and
carriers, energy efficiency, energy savings and consumption flexibility. The intention is to
provide the reader as comprehensive a basic understanding as possible of the main technologies
of the energy system and the most important elements of its development.
Besides presenting the different forms of energy production and the main technologies, the
report also considers the energy system as a whole and the various priorities for the future. The
current state of the energy system is examined in particular for electricity and heat and also
briefly for industry and transport. The report also is discussed the significance and role of the
three main energy sources in the development of the national energy system. In Finland, the
main energy sources for the energy system development are variable renewable energy, nuclear
power and biomass. In addition, the report provides information on important elements of
system integration, such as sector integration, system infrastructure, the functioning of the
energy market and system-level investments, and export opportunities related to carbon
neutrality expertise in Finland.
The main issues of the energy system development are currently related to variable renewable
energy, especially wind power in Finland. It plays an important role in transforming energy
consumption in many sectors towards carbon neutrality and will grow significantly in the
coming years. As the wind dependent and variable production share increases, ensuring
operational reliability will require significant structural changes and system development to
maintain a balance between production and consumption under all conditions. The main tools
to achieve these purposes include energy storage in different time periods, weatherindependent
and controllable forms of energy production, power reserves, consumption
flexibility and integration between different sectors. This report aims to provide the basic
information needed to understand the whole picture and its various components.
Keywords: Finland, Carbon neutrality, Energy, Renewable energy, energy future
... Seibert and Rees (2021) review the evidence showing that modern REs are actually not renewable (merely replaceable); that their production from mine-head to installation is itself fossilenergy-intensive; that they cannot deliver the same quantity and quality of energy as FFs (in much of the world, there are inadequate energy returns on energy invested); and that their life-cycles entail egregious social injustice and significant ecological degradation. Moreover, according to Michaux (2021) there are simply not enough key material resources or time to replace the existing fossil fuel powered system with renewable technologies on the schedule set by the IPCC. Some climate scientists refer to net zero by 2050 as an illusion or dangerous trap that, at best, unnecessarily extends the FF era (Dyke et al. 2021, Spratt andDunlop 2021) Consider just one dimension of the scaling-up problem. ...
The concept of mining modernisation has become topical in the quest for sustainable mining, and environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements. This is not surprising considering modernisation's important role in the current context of the 4th and anticipated 5th industrial revolutions. A mining company's success, competitiveness and sustainability largely hinges on its ability to proactively envision the future mine and plan an implementation pathway now rather than passively responding to its inevitable unfolding. Although the application of digital transformation has seen a slow, but steady uptake in the mining value chain, progress has largely been much slower in the stakeholder engagement space. This has been observed across the mining industry regardless of geographic location despite stakeholder engagement's central role in securing a social licence to operate. Much of the debate has focused on whether stakeholder engagement delivers a social licence to operate, and on the various stakeholder mapping and engagement frameworks. The fundamental aim of this review is to map the digital transformation of the mineral industry with a specific focus towards understanding how stakeholder engagement practices could be integrated in a mine's modernisation strategy to deliver a social licence to operate. In particular, we address: (a) the slow, but steady uptake of technology with potentially adverse effects on stakeholders, such as mining mechanisation, high underground pumping capabilities, and digital exploration; (b) how an understanding of responsible mine modernisation could influence the way the industry deploys people-centric technology for sustainability; (c) how considering stakeholder engagement as network building provides a valuable lens to understand digital transformation for social licence; (d) the promise of responsibly modernised engagement practises for the future mine; and (e) implications of responsibly modernised stakeholder engagement on skillsets of the future. Combining these topics effectively creates a stable mining network, thereby significantly reducing conflicts in mining ecosystems. Technology transformation in the mining value network will be more successful and sustainable if it does not lose sight of the need for a robust integrative stakeholder engagement approach.
This project provided an overall picture of the effects of climate change and mitigation on the sustainability and risks of public finances. With the help of literature and macroeconomic general equilibrium models, the project examined global effects as well as direct and spillover effects on Finland. Challenges related to modeling and the best methods of modeling were also evaluated.
The literature shows that there are still rather few studies on the effects of climate change, preparedness, and adaptation on the public economy, and that the information about the subject is uncertain. Research requires a perspicuous view of the effects of climate change as well as mitigation and adaptation policies on the national economy and public finances. The chain of influence is long and uncertain. The best starting point for modeling is the combining of details from different sources at the level of the national economy.
Based on the analysis, the physical consequences of climate change are likely to affect the national economy and public finances of Finland less than in most other countries, especially if the adaptation policy is successful. Country-specific differences emphasize the importance of being prepared for international spillover effects, and on the other hand the fact that Finland’s competitiveness may improve. The spillover effects reduce exports, but increase investments, and their combined effect on production remains small.
Industry-specific and regional differences are also large in Finland. The accelerating growth of negative effects as temperatures rise will increase the already high uncertainty associated with impact calculations.
For the next decade, the green transition will be more important for the Finnish economy than climate change. It is driven not only by Finnish and EU policy measures, but also by global technology and behavioral changes. An active and successful policy promoting the green transition is central to determining the kind of economic effects the public finances will experience during the transition phase.
Porphyry deposits are the dominant sources of copper and major sources of several base and precious metals. They are commonly formed via the repeated emplacement of hydrous magmas and associated fluid exsolution. As a result, mineralized hydrothermal veins may undergo multiple deposition and reopening processes that are not fully accounted for by existing fluid models. The Tongchang porphyry Cu deposit is a rare example of being related to a single intrusion. The simplicity in intrusive history provides an ideal starting point for studying fluid processes in more complex multi-intrusion porphyry systems. Detailed scanning electron microscope (SEM) cathodoluminescence imaging (CL) revealed rich microtextures in quartz and anhydrite that point to a fluid timeline encompassing early quartz deposition followed by fluid-aided dynamic recrystallization, which was succeeded by an intermediate stage of quartz dissolution and subsequent deposition, and ended with a late stage of continuous quartz deposition, brecciation, and fracturing. Vein reopening is more common than expected. Fifteen out of seventeen examined vein samples contained quartz and/or anhydrite that was older or younger than the vein age defined by vein sequences. Thermobarometry and solubility analysis suggests that the fluid events occurred in a general cooling path (from 650 °C to 250 °C), interspersed with two episodes of fluid pressurization. The first episode occurred at high-T (>500 °C), under lithostatic conditions alongside dynamic recrystallization, whereas the second one took place at a lower temperature (~400 °C), under lithostatic to hydrostatic transition conditions. The main episode of chalcopyrite veining took place subsequent to the second overpressure episode at temperatures of 380–300 °C. The results of this study reaffirm that thermal and hydraulic conditions are the main causative factors for vein reopening and growth in porphyry deposits.
This is a review of 4 papers that have done work similar to mine but have come to different conclusions. Can I learn from them?
A circular biobased economy must be able to sustainably manage multiple resources simultaneously. Nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) recycling and renewable energy production (biogas) can be compatible practices but require substantial transport of heavy organic waste. We combine a spatial optimization model and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to explore how Sweden could maximize its use of excreta resources. We use 10×10 km2 resolution data on the location of animal and human excreta and crop demand and model both optimal biogas plant locations and transport of nutrients to and from these plants. Each type of biogas plant (given 4 realistic mixes of excreta) is then evaluated for global warming potential, primary energy use and financial resource costs. Moving excreta through biogas plants, as opposed to simply reapplying on fields, to meet crop nutrient demands comes at a similar cost but the climate and primary energy savings are substantial. As much as 91% of phosphorus and 44% of nitrogen crop demand could be met via optimally transported excreta and the country would avoid about 1 450 kt of CO2-eq, save 3.6 TWh (13 000 tera-joules) of primary energy, and save 90 million euros per year. Substituting mineral fertilizers with recycled nutrients results in savings across all indicators, but the added energy and avoided greenhouse gas emissions associated with biogas production make a large difference in the attractiveness of nutrient recycling. Although the numeric values are theoretical, our results indicate that carefully coordinated and supported biogas production could help maximize multi-resource benefits.
At room temperature, micron-sized sheets of freestanding graphene are in constant motion, even in the presence of an applied bias voltage. We quantify the out-of-plane movement by collecting the displacement current using a nearby small-area metal electrode and present an Ito-Langevin model for the motion coupled to a circuit containing diodes. Numerical simulations show that the system reaches thermal equilibrium and the average rates of heat and work provided by stochastic thermodynamics tend quickly to zero. However, there is power dissipated by the load resistor, and its time average is exactly equal to the power supplied by the thermal bath. The exact power formula is similar to Nyquist's noise power formula, except that the rate of change of diode resistance significantly boosts the output power, and the movement of the graphene shifts the power spectrum to lower frequencies. We have calculated the equilibrium average of the power by asymptotic and numerical methods. Excellent agreement is found between experiment and theory.
Soil phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural systems will limit food and feed production in the future. Here, we combine spatially distributed global soil erosion estimates (only considering sheet and rill erosion by water) with spatially distributed global P content for cropland soils to assess global soil P loss. The world's soils are currently being depleted in P in spite of high chemical fertilizer input. Africa (not being able to afford the high costs of chemical fertilizer) as well as South America (due to non-efficient organic P management) and Eastern Europe (for a combination of the two previous reasons) have the highest P depletion rates. In a future world, with an assumed absolute shortage of mineral P fertilizer, agricultural soils worldwide will be depleted by between 4-19 kg ha −1 yr −1 , with average losses of P due to erosion by water contributing over 50% of total P losses.
Review of the potential for electrofuel technologies to contribute to transport decarbonisation in Europe
Human-induced soil erosion is a serious threat to global sustainability, endangering global food security, driving desertification and biodiversity loss, and degrading other vital ecosystem services. To help assess this threat, we amassed a global inventory of soil erosion rates consisting of 10,030 plot years of data from 255 sites under conventional agriculture and soil conservation management. We combined these with existing soil formation data to estimate soil sustainability expressed as a lifespan, here defined as the time taken for a topsoil of 30 cm to be eroded. We show that just under a third of conventionally managed soils in the dataset exhibit lifespans of <200 years, with 16% <100 years. Conservation measures substantially extend lifespan estimates, and in many cases promote soil thickening, with 39% of soils under conservation measures exhibiting lifespans exceeding 10,000 years. However, the efficacy of conservation measures is influenced by site- and region-specific variables such as climate, slope and soil texture. Finally, we show that short soil lifespans of <100 years are widespread globally, including some of the wealthiest nations. These findings highlight the pervasiveness, magnitude, and in some cases the immediacy of the threat posed by soil erosion to near-term soil sustainability. Yet, this work also demonstrates that we have a toolbox of conservation methods that have potential to ameliorate this issue, and their implementation can help ensure that the world's soils continue to provide for us for generations to come.
The application of mineral and organic phosphorus fertilizers to arable land has greatly increased crop yield to meet the world food demand. On the other hand, impurities in these fertilizers, such as heavy metals, are being added to agricultural soils, resulting both from the raw materials themselves and the processes used to obtain the final product. Cadmium, a non-essential and toxic heavy metal, has been found in relatively high amounts in common P fertilizers obtained from sediments. This metal poses a high risk for soil fertility, crop cultivation, and plants in general. Furthermore, human health might be compromised by the cadmium concentrations in agricultural and livestock products, due to the bioaccumulation effect in the food web. The accumulation in the different matrixes is the result of the high mobility and flexible availability of this harmful metal. This review summarizes risks to human health, the factors influencing cadmium movement in soils and crop uptake, as well as common plant responses to its toxicity. In addition, it summarizes cadmium balances in soils, trends, long-term experiments, and further studies. Cadmium inputs and outputs in arable soil, together with their calculated concentrations, are compared between two different regions: the European countries (in particular Germany) and China. The comparison appears useful because of the different proportions in the inputs and outputs of cadmium, and the diverse geographical, environmental and social factors. Moreover, these variables and their influences on cadmium contamination improve the understanding of the pollution from phosphate fertilizers and will help to establish future mitigation policies.