Predicting groundwater level changes in Jiroft plain and its relationship with developing cropping pattern of horticultural crops

Abstract

In recent years, groundwater overexploitation has led groundwater depletion Jiroft plain and considering the strategic role of this plain in supplying water required for agricultural products, planning to improve the water resources of this plain is essential. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of groundwater resources management in Jiroft plain in the past (2005-2019) and the near future (2019-2031) using GMS10.4 software based on hydrological, hydrogeological and Topographic data. Also, to investigate the impact of water resources changes on crops cultivation pattern, changes in cultivation pattern of major horticultural crops in terms of their water requirement in Jiroft plain were studied using information and statistics of major horticultural crops in Jiroft plain during the last three decades. The results showed that aquifer has yearly faced with a decline about 0.86 m during the baseline period (2005-2019), which indicates overexploitation of groundwater resources in this plain. The aquifer status was predicted in the future under different scenarios using the GMS 10.4 model. Also, studying the development trend of major horticultural products in Jiroft plain showed that despite the declining trend of groundwater resources over the past three decades, the share of horticultural products with high water requirement has been increased in the crop cultivation pattern of this plain and the behavior of farmers to develop the pattern of agricultural products cultivation has been influenced by factors except groundwater resources limitations. Therefore, it is suggested that scenarios of reducing groundwater resources exploitation in Jiroft plain and also paying attention to cultivation pattern appropriate to water resources in different parts of the plain should be a priority for agricultural planners.

Full text



192
Predicting groundwater level changes in Jiroft plain and its relationship
with developing cropping pattern of horticultural crops
4
Hassan Khosravi,
3
, Ali Akbar Barati
2
Khalil Kalantari,
2
Ali Asadi,
1
Mohsen Adeli Sardooei
Abstract
In recent years, groundwater overexploitation has led groundwater depletion Jiroft plain and
considering the strategic role of this plain in supplying water required for agricultural products, planning
to improve the water resources of this plain is essential. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to
investigate the effects of groundwater resources management in Jiroft plain in the past (2005-2019) and
the near future (2019-2031) using GMS10.4 software based on hydrological, hydrogeological and
Topographic data. Also, to investigate the impact of water resources changes on crops cultivation
pattern, changes in cultivation pattern of major horticultural crops in terms of their water requirement
in Jiroft plain were studied using information and statistics of major horticultural crops in Jiroft plain
during the last three decades. The results showed that aquifer has yearly faced with a decline about 0.86
m during the baseline period (2005-2019), which indicates overexploitation of groundwater resources
in this plain. The aquifer status was predicted in the future under different scenarios using the GMS
10.4 model. Also, studying the development trend of major horticultural products in Jiroft plain showed
that despite the declining trend of groundwater resources over the past three decades, the share of
horticultural products with high water requirement has been increased in the crop cultivation pattern of
this plain and the behavior of farmers to develop the pattern of agricultural products cultivation has
been influenced by factors except groundwater resources limitations. Therefore, it is suggested that
scenarios of reducing groundwater resources exploitation in Jiroft plain and also paying attention to
cultivation pattern appropriate to water resources in different parts of the plain should be a priority for
agricultural planners.
Keywords: Agriculture, Jiroft plain, Groundwater, Scenario, Water requirement
1
Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Assistant Professor, Dept. of
agricultural economics, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran
2
Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Aasadi@ut.ac.ir
(Corresponding author)
2 Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; kkalan@ut.ac.ir
3
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;
abarati@ut.ac.ir
4
Associate Professor, Dept. of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;
hakhosravi@ut.ac.ir

193



Predicting groundwater level changes in Jiroft plain and its relationship
with developing cropping pattern of horticultural crops
4
Hassan Khosravi,
3
, Ali Akbar Barati
2
Khalil Kalantari,
2
Ali Asadi,
1
Mohsen Adeli Sardooei
Introduction
In recent years, with increasing population and rapid industrial development and agricultural
modernization, groundwater resources are gradually declining. Groundwater resources are stored below
the surface away from direct observation, so a full understanding of their characteristics is very time
consuming and expensive for many long-term studies, so groundwater models They are a good tool for
continuous monitoring of the quantity of aquifers. Simulation of groundwater flow by mathematical
models is an indirect method for solving problems at a lower cost than direct methods. MODFLOW
and GSFLOW software provide a powerful decision support tool for the optimal use of water in
agriculture that can maximize the understanding of water resources in agricultural basins and provide
relevant information on water balance and system response. Also it can provide future forecasts of
sustainability and management of water resources changes. Considering the position of the agricultural
sector in the employment of the region and the importance of the products of this plain in ensuring food
security of the society, the evaluation of groundwater resources management of Jiroft plain in the last
decade and its future forecast is of special importance. Therefore, in this study, the status of water
resources in Jiroft plain was studied and its future trend was predicted to provide a better picture of the
future of water resources in different parts of the plain to address water-related issues in regional
development programs with better knowledge. In the second part of the research, by examining the
trend of changing the area under cultivation of main horticultural crops in Jiroft plain during the last
three decades, water consumption pattern and temporal and spatial development trend of these crops in
Jiroft plain were determined to plan agricultural decision makers. Better management of water resources
to be used.
Methodology
In this study, to investigate the status of groundwater aquifer, groundwater data along with wells
operated by Iran Water Resources Management Company (Tamab) and monthly rainfall data of Jiroft
synoptic station in the period (2005-2019) The Meteorological Organization was used. Groundwater
Modeling System (GMS) is a software package that provides researcher studies with robust models
such as MODFLOW to simulate various groundwater problems. One of the models that GMS supports
is MODFLOW. In the second part of this research, the development process of major horticultural
products from the perspective of water needs was studied. For this purpose, based on information and
statistics, the area under cultivation of agricultural products during the last three decades from 1990 to
2020 was studied. NETWAT software, which is known as the national irrigation document of the
country and is widely used by experts in agriculture and water resources.
Discussion and conclusion
The results showed that in the base period (2005-2019) the average annual aquifer has a drop of 0.86
m, which indicates the overuse of groundwater resources and the digging of many unauthorized wells
1
Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Assistant Professor, Dept. of
agricultural economics, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran: Mohsen.adelis@ujiroft.ac.ir
2
Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Aasadi@ut.ac.ir
(Corresponding author)
2 Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; kkalan@ut.ac.ir
3
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;
abarati@ut.ac.ir
4
Associate Professor, Dept. of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;
hakhosravi@ut.ac.ir



194
in the case area. The maximum amount of drop occurred in Jiroft plain in this period is 28.2 meters,
which indicates that groundwater drop occurs in different parts of the plain, but its intensity is different
in different areas, which is due to the complex structure of aquifer and the amount of harvesting and
density of exploitation wells, as well as the type of land uses in the region (increase of agricultural lands
in the last decade and decrease of barren lands and their conversion into desert lands). The results also
showed that despite the declining trend of groundwater resources in the Jiroft plain, farmers' behavior
has not been under the pattern of changing water resources and products with high water requirment
are more acceptable in the region's cultivation pattern and farmers tend to develop cultivation of these
crops. Based on the results, the lands under cultivation of oranges and dates, which have a high water
requirement, have had a greater share in the cultivation pattern of farmers during the last three decades
due to economic reasons and investment attractiveness. This has undoubtedly exacerbated the need for
water resources. According to some researchers, the good market of some agricultural products has
become an important factor in attracting urban investors in this sector, and in order to meet the water
needs of the developed lands, more extraction of surface and groundwater resources is a must. Based
on this, it seems that the development of horticultural products with high water requirment in Jiroft
plain can be one of the factors intensifying the destruction of water resources in this plain. Since Jiroft
plain is mentioned as one of the agricultural hubs of the country and is the most important economic
resource for the residents of this region, so it is necessary to plan to maintain and not develop crops
with high water requirements such as dates and oranges in the cultivation pattern of this plain should
be done according to the degree of water crisis in different parts of the plain.
The most mostimportant references:
Barati, A. A., Azadi, H., & Scheffran, J. (2019). A system dynamics model of smart groundwater
governance. Agricultural water management, 221, 502-518.
Fader, M., Shi, S., Von Bloh, W., Bondeau, A., & Cramer, W. (2016). Mediterranean irrigation under
climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate for increases in irrigation water
requirements. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(2), 953.
Shirmohammadi, B., Malekian, A., Salajegheh, A., Taheri, B., Azarnivand, H., Malek, Z., &
Verburg, P. H. (2020). Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land
use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran. Land Use Policy, 90, 104299.

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 GMS 10.4






















mohsen.adelis@ut.ac.ir




aasadi@ut.ac.ir


kkalan@ut.ac.ir


aabarati@ut.ac.ir


hakhosravi@ut.ac.ir






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





      



Rossetto et al., 2018




    

   



  
Malekzadeh et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2016
   
  
Xiang et
al., 2020MODFLOWGSFLOW



      

Niswonger et al., 2020




Baalousha, 2016
    


         

        
        

 
         


       
        
        
   

   


Todorov et al., 2020
     



GMS  MODFLOW-
2005Harbaugh, 2005; Langevin et al., 2017
 



       






     

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

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



      
     




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  
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     




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 
     


 
   

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
GMS
   
MODFLOW  

GMSMODFLOW
El Yaouti et al., 2008
 
        



     


 1).

  

  ٪  

  Sundararajan and Sankaran,
2020; Simmers et al., 2013; Varalakshmi et al.,
2014 

  

 R M/day P
   M/years a   


    





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
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 



  Anderson &
Woessner, 1992ESTimation(PEST)

Doherty & Johnston, 2003

     

Compendex, 2016

 
        
    

      
    
      
 ME  MAE 
    RMSE  

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 
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 
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
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
   
       
   
      

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 Feder et al
 

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




       
      
       

        







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

        

   
NETWAT
       

 
  
     
      
   




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 
        

 Calculater
0
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
         
        



   
        






     
      

interval



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




0/00006
182/0293
182/0294





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

GMS10.4GIS10.3



      
 



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


       


    
  RMSEMAEME 


 
  



ME
MAE
RMSE














     















 (MCM)
 (MCM)
)

MCM(


-90/67
1095/86
1005/19


-98/62
2174/64
2076/03


-88/04
2167/79
2079/76


-90/04
2162/79
2072/76


-99/80
2158/82
2059/02


-95/37
2147/17
2051/81


-102/22
2137/12
2034/91


-74/12
2129/13
2055/01


-85/36
2122/23
2036/88


-71/32
2115/58
2044/27


-92/95
2110/35
2017/40


-75/15
2105/40
2030/26


-73/91
2101/58
2027/67


-71/41
1048/86
977/46


-86/35
1984/10
1897/75


      

      

   







        






















1398
-95/53
-115/84
-163/01
-51/57
-30/23
1399
-91/49
-116/51
-163/31
-52/86
-30/68
1400
-91/26
-116/69
-163/73
-53/38
-31/29
1401
-91/09
-116/88

-53/58
-31/60
1402
-90/96
-117/04
-164/17
-53/84
-31/96
1403
-90/57
-117/43
-164/63
-54/26
-32/46
1404
-90/24
-117/78
-165/06
-54/71
-33/02
1405
-89/97
-118/07
-165/44
-55/11
-33/51
1406
-89/74
-118/30
-165/77
-55/42
-33/87
1407
-89/52
-118/52
-166/11
-55/73
-34/27
1408
-89/35
-118/69
-166/37
-55/98
-34/56
1409
-89/18
-118/86
-166/58
-56/19
-34/79
1410
-89/05
-119/00
-166/73
-56/35
-34/97

-90/71
-117/88
-165/25
-54/82
-33/22
 

  

         
       
       
     



     

   
        
       


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 
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       

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
  
        

       


          
  




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
    


      


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
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NETWAT
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     
       

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  
 

        
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 
         

        
     
     



    



    
        
       
       







     

      






 




     

      

      
Varalakshmi     
Musi

 
  


     




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        
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       
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