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Influence of Key Macroeconomic Factors on the Dynamics of Employment of the Population of the Russian Federation
Abstract
The article analyzes the influence of such macrostructural factors as final demand and a group of structural and technological factors on the dynamics of employment of the population of the Russian Federation on the basis of the input-output balance. The latter includes changes in labor productivity and production technologies, which is reflected in changes in the elements of the matrix of direct cost coefficients. Estimates of the contribution of these factors to the dynamics of employment during periods of transformational recession (1991-1998), subsequent recovery growth (1999-2014) and stagnation (2015-2017) are calculated.
The imbalance between labour supply and demand, both by types of economic activity and by professional groups, differs in Russian regional labour markets, causing long-term unemployment and im-poverishment of the population. The article examines the transformation of the labour market, regional characteristics of market failures and its recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on sample surveys of the labour force conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service, we determined monthly unemploy-ment dynamics and, subsequently, the vulnerability and instability of regional labour markets. It is hypoth-esised that the stronger the contraction of employment and the greater the unemployment, the longer the process of labour market recovery during the pandemic; regions recover from the crisis at different speeds. Indicators of the intensity of labour market failures and its recovery are proposed. Since the pandemic is a peculiar phenomenon that affected the economy and society, human behaviour in the labour market, the concept of excessive unemployment was used (the difference between actual unemployment and its pre-pandemic level). We performed a correlation analysis of the relations between labour market failures and its recovery in four groups of regions characterised by different labour market fluctuations. The cal-culated Spearman’s coefficients showed a positive relationship between the indicators. The depth of la-bour market failures and its recovery rate in regions with developed infrastructure, attracting labour mi-grants, are revealed. A positive relationship was established between the unemployment dynamics and the increase in vacancy rate reported by employers to employment agencies, increase in the average monthly salary. This article presents the results of the first research stage. Further studies will expand the time se-ries of employment and unemployment in order to identify long-term trends and build a forecasting model.
Based on Rosstat data and Input-Output tables developed by the IEF RAS, we study the changes in the price system, in production technologies, in the proportions of income distribution, and in the structure of final demand, that have been observed since the early 1990s. The paper also estimates the effect of these shifts on the dynamics and branch structure of gross output.
Input–output analysis has been used to study the impact made by microstructure factors such as final demand and the matrix of input–output coefficients on the performance of the total gross output of the Russian Federation in 1990–2013. The contribution of these factors to the economic dynamics during the transformational recession in 1991–1998 and the subsequent restoration growth of 1999–2013 have been numerically estimated.
The paper summarizes the studies on the mechanisms of Russian labor market. The subjects under consideration include unemployment and wages formation, relationship between key labor market variables and inflation, and labor market adjustment to negative shocks. We demonstrate that the general feature of Russian labor market is its high flexibility, which shows itself a gradual decline of the NAIRU level, high elasticity of real wages by unemployment rate, rapid return to full employment after negative external shocks. Problems rooted in the labor market are specified (primarily declining labor supply and increasing labor share in GDP), their neglect can become a major impediment for economic growth if forceful measures based on the earlier and future research findings are not taken.
The quantitative and qualitative mismatch of labor demand and its supply on the Russian labor market is discussed. It is proved that these are the key determinants of the current state of employment sphere and labor market in Russia. Factors aggravating the problem of skills shortages inthe domestic economy are identified. The reasons of low efficiency of labor potential use are analyzed and the ways of its possible increase are determined. The conclusions about the prospects of employment sphere and labor market development are made. The possible state of the sphere of employment and labor market under various socio-economic conditions is estimated. The proposals in the field of socioeconomic policy, employment policy, their statistical support are considered. Attention is drawn to the creation and statistical accounting of high-performance jobs, and measures are proposed to improve it. The disadvantages of the existing approach to the definition of the category "workplace" in modern statistics are shown.
This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies
and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics
of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and
it presents estimates of its basic parameters.
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