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Articles
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01510-3
A full list of affiliations appears at the end of the paper.
Restoration ecology is rapidly advancing in response to the
ever-expanding global decline in ecosystem integrity and its
associated socio-economic repercussions1–4. Nowhere are
these dynamics more evident than in drylands, which help sustain
39% of the world’s human population5 but remain some of the most
difficult areas to restore6,7. Restoration of degraded dryland ecosys-
tems is frequently constrained by low and variable precipitation,
extreme temperatures, relatively low soil fertility, seed quality and
availability and a prevalence of invasive species8–11. As a result, suc-
cessful establishment of seeded species in dryland restoration proj-
ects may be as low as 1%12,13. Despite these challenges, only a small
fraction of terrestrial ecology (6%)14 and restoration studies (<5%)15
are conducted in drylands.
Dryland ecosystems are ecologically distinct16,17, increasing in
global extent under shifting climates18–20 and have been recognized
as degraded in over 50% of their range21. Depending on the sever-
ity of degradation, vegetation recovery of depleted and denuded
dryland landscapes through natural succession processes is very
slow, if not impossible22. Passive restoration methods (for example
reducing livestock and wildlife grazing) are often ineffective alone,
as degraded dryland environments can show stability and resilience
in undesired states11. Resource-intensive methods such as seedling
Drivers of seedling establishment success in
dryland restoration efforts
Nancy Shackelford 1,2,71 ✉ , Gustavo B. Paterno 3,4,71, Daniel E. Winkler5, Todd E. Erickson6,7,
Elizabeth A. Leger8, Lauren N. Svejcar9, Martin F. Breed 10, Akasha M. Faist11, Peter A. Harrison 12,
Michael F. Curran13, Qinfeng Guo 14, Anita Kirmer 15, Darin J. Law16, Kevin Z. Mganga17,
Seth M. Munson 18, Lauren M. Porensky19, R. Emiliano Quiroga20,21, Péter Török 22,
Claire E. Wainwright23, Ali Abdullahi24, Matt A. Bahm25, Elizabeth A. Ballenger26, Nichole Barger2,
Owen W. Baughman27, Carina Becker 28, Manuel Esteban Lucas-Borja29, Chad S. Boyd9,
Carla M. Burton30, Philip J. Burton 30, Eman Calleja31, Peter J. Carrick32, Alex Caruana 31,
Charlie D. Clements33, Kirk W. Davies9, Balázs Deák 34, Jessica Drake35, Sandra Dullau 15,
Joshua Eldridge36, Erin Espeland37, Hannah L. Farrell18, Stephen E. Fick5, Magda Garbowski38,
Enrique G. de la Riva39, Peter J. Golos 7, Penelope A. Grey40, Barry Heydenrych41,
Patricia M. Holmes 42, Jeremy J. James43, Jayne Jonas-Bratten 44, Réka Kiss34, Andrea T. Kramer45,
Julie E. Larson2, Juan Lorite 46,47, C. Ellery Mayence48, Luis Merino-Martín 49, Tamás Miglécz50,
Suanne Jane Milton 51,52, Thomas A. Monaco53, Arlee M. Montalvo54, Jose A. Navarro-Cano55,
Mark W. Paschke56, Pablo Luis Peri57, Monica L. Pokorny58, Matthew J. Rinella59, Nelmarie Saayman60,
Merilynn C. Schantz61, Tina Parkhurst62, Eric W. Seabloom 63, Katharine L. Stuble64,
Shauna M. Uselman65, Orsolya Valkó 34, Kari Veblen 66, Scott Wilson67, Megan Wong68,
Zhiwei Xu 69 and Katharine L. Suding 2,70
Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods
for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set for dryland restoration to restore millions
of hectares of degraded land. These targets have been questioned as overly ambitious, but without a global evaluation of suc-
cesses and failures it is impossible to gauge feasibility. Here we examine restoration seeding outcomes across 174 sites on six
continents, encompassing 594,065 observations of 671 plant species. Our findings suggest reasons for optimism. Seeding had
a positive impact on species presence: in almost a third of all treatments, 100% of species seeded were growing at first monitor-
ing. However, dryland restoration is risky: 17% of projects failed, with no establishment of any seeded species, and consistent
declines were found in seeded species as projects matured. Across projects, higher seeding rates and larger seed sizes resulted
in a greater probability of recruitment, with further influences on species success including site aridity, taxonomic identity
and species life form. Our findings suggest that investigations examining these predictive factors will yield more effective and
informed restoration decision-making.
NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION | VOL 5 | SEPTEMBER 2021 | 1283–1290 | www.nature.com/natecolevol 1283
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