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The Role of Clouds in Coral Bleaching Events Over the Great Barrier Reef

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Thermal coral bleaching events (CBEs) over the Pacific, including those over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), have commonly been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with bleaching reported to be a direct result of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies driven by El Niño. However, such a relationship cannot explain CBEs that occurred during La Niña or the neutral phase of the ENSO. Here, we show that the GBR is characterized by a significant negative correlation between total cloud cover anomaly (TCCA) and lagged SST anomaly (SSTA) whose magnitude and spatial extent are greater than the SSTA‐ENSO correlation. This significant negative TCCA‐SSTA (lagged) correlation prevails over two‐thirds of the study domain even after the ENSO signal is removed, which suggests that local‐scale reduced cloud cover is a key component of the regional warm shallow water formation over the GBR and the occurrence of thermal CBEs.
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1. Introduction
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has experienced increasingly frequent coral bleaching events (CBEs) under
present day global warming (Hughes etal.,2017; Stuart-Smith etal.,2018). Evidence for a dominant role of
sustained elevated water temperature in the bleaching process, specifically thermal CBEs, is unequivocal
(Ainsworth etal.,2016; Barnett etal.,2005; Donner etal.,2005; Lough etal.,2018). For the GBR, unusually
warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have caused significant thermal CBEs several times in recent dec-
ades, particularly in the summers of 1998, 2002, 2006, 2016 and 2017 (AIMS,2017; Berkelmans etal.,2004;
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority,2006; Hughes etal.,2017,2018). For this study, CBEs refer only
to thermal coral bleaching events.
Previous studies have shown that reef growth and decline across the Pacific is strongly modulated by El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability (Leonard etal.,2016; Toth etal., 2012). Some of the most
devastating mass CBEs, including those reported over the GBR (McGowan & Theobald,2017), have oc-
curred during El Niño events, where bleaching was reported to be a direct result of increased SSTs (Baker
etal.,2008; Glynn etal.,2001; Kleypas etal.,2015). There are, however, other El Niño events (e.g., 2002–
2003) that have not led to reports of significant CBEs across the GBR. Indeed, El Niño itself does not lead to
the rise of SSTs in all regions. For example, the Western Pacific typically has below average SSTs due to the
eastward shift of the Walker Circulation during El Niño. Thus, attributing the CBEs in the western tropical
Pacific Ocean directly to the increased regional SSTs caused by El Niño is not consistent with the well-es-
tablished understanding of ENSO SST variability across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Baker etal.,2008). It is
Abstract Thermal coral bleaching events (CBEs) over the Pacific, including those over the Great
Barrier Reef (GBR), have commonly been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with
bleaching reported to be a direct result of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies driven by El Niño.
However, such a relationship cannot explain CBEs that occurred during La Niña or the neutral phase
of the ENSO. Here, we show that the GBR is characterized by a significant negative correlation between
total cloud cover anomaly (TCCA) and lagged SST anomaly (SSTA) whose magnitude and spatial extent
are greater than the SSTA-ENSO correlation. This significant negative TCCA-SSTA (lagged) correlation
prevails over two-thirds of the study domain even after the ENSO signal is removed, which suggests that
local-scale reduced cloud cover is a key component of the regional warm shallow water formation over the
GBR and the occurrence of thermal CBEs.
Plain Language Summary Thermal coral bleaching events (CBEs) over the Pacific, including
those over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), have commonly been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), with bleaching reported to be a direct result of warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by
El Niño (positive phase of ENSO). However, CBEs have also been reported over the GBR during La Niña
and the neutral phase of the ENSO, when large-scale SSTs may be cooler than normal. Here, we show
that the SST anomaly over the GBR is more highly correlated with local cloud cover than with ENSO.
This significant relationship between local cloud cover and SST can be found over two-thirds of the study
domain even when the ENSO impact is ignored. Accordingly, we conclude that local-scale reduced cloud
cover plays an important role in regional warming of the shallow water over the GBR, regardless of the
large-scale ENSO impact.
ZHAO ET AL.
© 2021. American Geophysical Union.
All Rights Reserved.
The Role of Clouds in Coral Bleaching Events Over the
Great Barrier Reef
Wenhui Zhao1,2 , Yi Huang2,3 , Steven Siems1,2, and Michael Manton1
1Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extreme, Melbourne, VIC,
Australia, 3The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Key Points:
Lagged regional sea surface
temperature (SST) is correlated
with total cloud cover across the
Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and direct
shortwave cloud radiative forcing
SST over the GBR is more highly
correlated with the overhead cloud
cover than the large-scale El Niño–
Southern Oscillation signal
Local-scale reduced cloud cover
plays a crucial role in the shallow
water warming over the GBR and
the occurrence of thermal coral
bleaching events
Supporting Information:
Supporting Information may be found
in the online version of this article.
Correspondence to:
W. Zhao,
wenhui.zhao@monash.edu
Citation:
Zhao, W., Huang, Y., Siems, S., &
Manton, M. (2021). The role of clouds
in coral bleaching events over the Great
Barrier Reef. Geophysical Research
Letters, 48, e2021GL093936. https://doi.
org/10.1029/2021GL093936
Received 18 APR 2021
Accepted 1 JUL 2021
10.1029/2021GL093936
RESEARCH LETTER
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... However, these warm ocean conditions contributed to northeast Australia experiencing high cloud cover and extreme rainfall (Evans and Boyer-Souchet, 2012;Ummenhofer et al., 2015). This resulted in reduced heat stress on the GBR (Leahy et al., 2013;Zhao et al., 2021), although the resultant flooding contributed to other forms of coral stress (e.g. Jones and Berkelmans, 2014). ...
... The extent and magnitudes of HotSpots and DHWs on GBR satellite reef pixels exceed those observed during this period in any previous year on record . The presence of a La Niña, and more specifically high cloud cover, could provide the GBR with some relief from heat stress (Zhao et al., 2021). Whether that would be enough to avoid bleaching-level heat stress across large sections of the GBR in January/February/March 2022 remains to be seen. ...
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The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system.
... However, these warm ocean conditions contributed to northeast Australia experiencing high cloud cover and extreme rainfall (Evans and Boyer-Souchet, 2012;Ummenhofer et al., 2015). This resulted in reduced heat stress on the GBR (Leahy et al., 2013;Zhao et al., 2021), although the resultant flooding contributed to other forms of coral stress (e.g. Jones and Berkelmans, 2014). ...
... The extent and magnitudes of HotSpots and DHWs on GBR satellite reef pixels exceed those observed during this period in any previous year on record . The presence of a La Niña, and more specifically high cloud cover, could provide the GBR with some relief from heat stress (Zhao et al., 2021). Whether that would be enough to avoid bleaching-level heat stress across large sections of the GBR in January/February/March 2022 remains to be seen. ...
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The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system.
... Accordingly, our observations from Heron Reef begin to shed light on the possible role of coral reefs in this cloud formation over the GBR i.e., as coral reefs warm, they initiate convection triggering cloud formation under favourable synoptic conditions such as occur during the summer monsoon. In contrast, under settled summer El Niño conditions when the atmosphere is more stable over the GBR, cloud development may be suppressed resulting in extreme heating of water overlying coral reefs causing bleaching (McGowan and Theobald, 2017;Zhao et al., 2021). ...
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