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Assigning a commodity dimension to AIS data: Disaggregated freight flow on an inland waterway network

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Abstract

Inland waterways play a key role within the freight transportation system by connecting productive heartland areas to international gateways, while keeping costs competitive. Quantifying commodity flow is important because it affects cost-based supply chain decision-making. However, data on commodity movements to inform investment and planning decisions is elusive. Publicly available commodity data on U.S. inland waterways is limited in its spatial aggregation to the location of locks, which is insufficient to identify inter-port commodity flows. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data has the potential to disaggregate freight-flows to the port and river segment levels but it does not identify the commodity carried. This paper characterizes and quantifies vessel trips by port of origin-destination, timestamp, commodity carried, and path (mapped to an inland waterway network), allowing for disaggregated commodity flow analysis, previously unavailable in the public domain in the U.S. This is accomplished through a multi-commodity assignment model which conflates AIS vessel movement data with commodity-specific port throughput. A stochastic approach is introduced to handle uncertainty in cargo-to-vessel ratios. Validation using data from the Arkansas River show agreement between model predictions and aggregated commodity volumes with differences lower than 1.82% by commodity and lock. Ubiquitous AIS data permit the transferability of the proposed work.

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Machine learning (ML) offers a promising avenue for international freight transportation management (IFTM) given its capability to harness the power of data that have become increasingly available to freight transportation researchers and practitioners. This paper conducts a comprehensive investigation of the state-of-the-art in developing ML models for applications to different aspects of IFTM. We start by giving an overview of various fundamental ML methods. Then, how different ML methods have been employed, adapted, and applied to a multitude of subject areas in IFTM are discussed, including demand forecast, operation and asset maintenance, and vehicle trajectory and on-time performance prediction. The potential data sources that may be used to develop ML models are further examined. Subsequently, a synthesis of the exiting work is performed to identify the specific topics addressed in the existing research, ML methods used, the trends of research, and opportunities for further explorations. Four directions for future research are proposed in the end
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Devastating effects of disasters and global crises on people increases the importance of humanitarian logistics studies for pre and post-disaster stages. Location planning of Temporary Medical Centers/field hospitals is one of the most important problems for disaster response. We aimed to determine the location and number of temporary medical centers in case of disasters by considering the locations of the existing hospitals, casualty classification (triage), capacities of medical centers and possibilities of damage to the roads and hospitals. Besides, we aimed to assign different casualty classes to these medical centers for emergency medical response by considering the distances between disaster areas and medical centers. For this purpose, a two-stage stochastic programming model was developed. The proposed model finds an optimal TMC location solution while minimizing the total setup cost of the TMCs and the expected total transportation cost by considering casualty types, demand, possibilities of damage to the roads and hospitals, and distance between the disaster areas and the medical centers. In the model, α-reliability constraints for the expected number of unassigned casualties were also used. Besides, the model was reformulated without triage, in order to understand the impact of casualty classification on the solution of the problem. We performed a real case study for the district of Kartal expected to be widely damaged in the possible Istanbul earthquake, and a sensitivity analysis was made. The analysis of the results offer some managerial insights associated with the number of temporary medical centers’ needed, their locations, and additional hospital capacity requirements.
Article
Increased demand for truck parking resulting from hours-of-service regulations and growing truck volumes, coupled with limited supply of parking facilities, is concerning for transportation agencies and industry stakeholders. To monitor truck parking congestion, the Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) conducts an annual observational survey of truck parking facilities. As a result of survey methodology, it cannot capture patterns of diurnal and seasonal use, arrival times, and duration. Truck Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide an apt alternative for monitoring parking facility utilization. The issue is that most truck GPS datasets represent a sample of the truck population and the representativeness of that sample may differ by application. Currently no method exists to accurately expand a GPS sample to reflect population-level truck parking facility utilization. This paper leverages the ARDOT study to estimate GPS “expansion factors” by parking facility type and defines two expansion factors: (1) the ratio of trucks parked derived from the GPS sample to those observed during the Overnight Study, and (2) the ratio of truck volume derived from the GPS sample to total truck volume measured on the nearest roadway. Varied expansion factors are found for public, private commercial (e.g., restaurant, retail store, etc.), and private truck stop facilities. Comparatively, the expansion factor based on roadway truck volumes was at least twice as high as that derived from the Overnight Study. Considering this, the method to determine expansion factors has significant implications on the estimated magnitudes of parking facility congestion, and thus will have consequences for investment prioritization.
Article
This research is motivated by the opportunities for retailers to reduce waste and increase profitability of perishables using pricing. This paper proposes a two-stage stochastic optimization model that selects suppliers, identifies a replenishment schedule for a periodic-review inventory system with non-stationary demand and supply, and determines the timing and size of a price markdown in order to maximize retailer's profits. In this model, the first-stage problem is bilinear since it captures the additive relationship between price and demand. Therefore, we develop a solution approach which extends the Benders decomposition algorithm via a piecewise linear approximation method to solve the first-stage problem. A case study is presented to validate the model. Numerical experiments suggest that supply chain profits are enhanced by integrating inventory management with pricing decisions.
Article
The majority of freight is transported within the U.S. by road. However, the use of alternative modes, such as rail and barge, is associated with lower transportation and infrastructure maintenance costs, release of highway capacity, increased safety, and lower emissions. Thus, there is a latent opportunity for shippers and consumers to benefit from modal shift. In this context, strategically located freight-transfer facilities to improve rail and barge access is key. Moreover, for states with lower commodity tonnages and access to short-line rail and navigable waterways, transload facilities have significant potential to shift freight to underutilized modes. This paper develops a multi-criteria assessment framework to identify strategic locations for transload facilities at the state level. Using a statewide travel demand model (STDM) as the main data source, this framework provides a sketch-planning tool to support decision-making for state Departments of Transportation and economic development agencies. The multi-criteria quantify four measures of facility potential: (a) interaction with the transportation network, (b) amount of freight transported between major freight routes, (c) spatial aggregation, and (d) directionality aggregation. Each criterion is estimated and combined at the county level to produce a multi-criteria score, which defines a county’s potential to support transload movements. Using this score, counties are ranked, and facilities prioritized. The framework is applied to Arkansas and validated using the STDM for base (2010) and forecast (2040) years.
Article
Data derived from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) plays a key role in water traffic data mining. However, there are various errors regarding time and space. To improve availability, AIS data quality dimensions are presented for detecting errors of AIS tracks including physical integrity, spatial logical integrity and time accuracy. After systematic summary and analysis, algorithms for error pre-processing are proposed. Track comparison maps and traffic density maps for different types of ships are derived to verify applicability based on the AIS data from the Chinese Zhoushan Islands from January to February 2015. The results indicate that the algorithms can effectively improve the quality of AIS trajectories.
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Characterizing system performance under disruption is a growing area of research, particularly for describing a system's resilience to disruptive events. Within the framework of system resilience, this study approaches the minimization of a multiple-commodity system's vulnerability to multiple disruptions. The vulnerability of a system is defined by the degree to which commodities can no longer flow through the system to satisfy demand given a disruptive event. A multi-objective formulation is developed to find defense strategies at minimal cost that maintain a high level of demand satisfaction across all commodities. A solution method involving an estimation of the Pareto frontier via the Non-dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is also proposed. A decision support environment is proposed and supported by application of the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The proposed formulation and solution method are illustrated with an example generated from the multi-commodity Swedish rail network.
Article
This paper addresses global route choices for dry bulk carriers, focusing on the competitive situation between the Suez Canal (SC) and its competitors, such as the Panama Canal (PC) and the route via the Cape of Good Hope. The authors first establish a methodology and estimate the actual route choices for dry bulk carriers based on a vessel movement database, focusing on the share of SC transit for each pair of regions where the cargo originates and is destined to. Second, an aggregated logit model is applied to predict the estimated shares by regional pair and is utilised in sensitivity analyses for simulations that consider the recent changes in the dry bulk shipping market such as the PC's expansion, the decline in bunker prices, and the suppression of Somali piracy risk. The results suggest that the proposed methodology is useful for estimating the share of SC transit by regional pair and that the model for describing route choice is validated through not only output indices such as prediction rate but also sensitivity analyses, a time transferability check, and a comparison with the results of a shortest-path model.
Article
Commodity flow modeling studies rely on traditional data sources, such as the Commodity Flow Survey, the Freight Analysis Framework, Transearch, surveys, the U.S. census, county business patterns, and input–output models. The strengths and shortcomings of those data sources have been evaluated in the literature; the sources can be useful for modeling, but they do not necessarily support a supply chain approach or provide the level of detail or accuracy desired for modeling a particular commodity’s supply chain and flow on a city or state roadway network. This paper expands on the work of NCFRP Report 35: Implementing the Freight Transportation Data Architecture: Data Element Dictionary by finding existing data sources unique to specific commodities that identify key supply chain locations and industry relationships and that provide more detail about commodity quantity and movement to overcome the limitations of traditional freight data sources. The goal of the investigation was to find more data sets to use in commodity flow modeling. For each commodity, this paper describes data sources found, data attributes, and how those data were used to estimate flow from origins and destinations within supply chain links. The commodity-specific approach opens doors to sources of data not normally incorporated into transportation research.
Article
This paper presents an optimization approach to solve the short-term hydropower unit commitment and loading problem with uncertain inflows. A scenario tree is built based on a forecasted fan of inflows, which is developed using the weather forecast and the historical weather realizations. The tree-building approach seeks to minimize the nested distance between the stochastic process of historical inflow data and the multistage stochastic process represented in the scenario tree. A two-phase multistage stochastic model is used to solve the problem. The proposed approach is tested on a 31 day rolling-horizon with daily forecasted inflows for three power plants situated in the province of Quebec, Canada, that belong to the company Rio Tinto.
Article
Uncertainties inherent in the airport traffic may lead to the unavailability of gates for accommodating scheduled flights. Incorporating random disruptions is crucial in constructing effective flight-gate assignments. We consider the gate assignment problem under uncertainty in flight arrival and departure times and develop stochastic programming models incorporating robustness measures based on the number of conflicting flights, idle and buffer times. The proposed models are formulated as large-scale mixed-integer programming problems and tabu search algorithms are implemented to obtain assignments of reasonable quality. We conduct a computational study to analyze the proposed alternate models and show the effectiveness of the solution methods.
Article
This paper focuses on a fuzzy logic based intelligent decision making system that aims to improve the safety of marine vessels by avoiding collision situations. It can be implemented in a decision support system of an oceangoing vessel or included in the process of autonomous ocean navigation. Although Autonomous Guidance and Navigation (AGN) is meant to be an important part of future ocean navigation due to the associated cost reduction and improved maritime safety, intelligent decision making capabilities should be an integrated part of the future AGN system in order to improve autonomous ocean navigational facilities. In this study, the collision avoidance of the Target vessel with respect to the vessel domain of the Own vessel has been analyzed and input, and output fuzzy membership functions have been derived. The if–then rule based decision making process and the integrated novel fuzzy inference system are formulated and implemented on the MATLAB software platform. Simulation results are presented regarding several critical collision conditions where the Target vessel fails to take appropriate actions, as the “Give way” vessel to avoid collision situations. In these situations, the Own vessel is able to take critical actions to avoid collisions, even when being the “Stand on” vessel. Furthermore, all decision rules are formulated in accordance with the International Maritime Organization Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs), 1972, to avoid conflicts that might occur during ocean navigation. KeywordsAutonomous Guidance and Navigation–Collision avoidance–IMO rules and regulations–COLREGs–Fuzzy logic–Intelligent systems–Decision making process–Crash stopping
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