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PRESENTATION BY
SYSTEMS THINKING LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT
INSTITUTION (STLDi) BOTSWANA HQ
JUST FOR YOU -
◦Why am I doing this?
WORKS BY YOU TODAY -
◦After Presentation Part I:
What is a persistent issue I am seeing as for my
organization?
◦After Presentation Part II:
What ways could we be organizing ourselves as a
government to turn persistent issues around for the
nation? Would we?
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Paulo Coelho
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WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS STAND
FOR?
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ARE PERSONS WITHOUT FORMAL EMPLOYMENT
IN 2011
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PERSONS WHO DEPEND ON
EACH PERSON EMPLOYED FORMALLY
IN 2011
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PER CAPITA INCOME LOSS TO THE ECONOMY
PER MONTH
WHEN THE 827,848 PERSONS REMAIN UNEMPLOYED
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NATIONAL INCOME LOSS PER ANNUM
WHEN THE 827,848 PERSONS REMAIN UNEMPLOYED
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HOW DID WE GET HERE?
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IN BOTSWANA
Where it permits, study uses behaviour of
data over fifty-year time periods
The data were then subject to the rigours of
systemic analyses tools, where fifty-year
timelines were present, to derive findings and
results.
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The Botswana Story
(Based on Conservative Figures) The World
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Botswana
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
World
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Research Paper Presented By Slideshow
Unemployment persists when …
the supply of labour by the
population has stayed consistently
higher (over time) than …
Time
Population
the demand for labour by the
corporations.
Time
Demand for Labour
The push by labour (supply) is caused by the
number of births produced by the population
from twenty years back in time.
Twenty years is the time it takes for a child to
mature into adult & readies for the job market.
It takes time to recognize the impact the levels
of births will have on the labour market and the
job market at that point in time in the future.
Push of labour by the population and
Pull of jobs by the corporates
Results when the source of these two factors
happen at different points in time.
The demand for labour is the story of
corporations that allows them to …
create new jobs.
The extent corporations create future jobs rely on
the extent existing pools of staff perform to:
-Create demand of corporate services in the
future &
-Generate corporate profit margins today.
And so the creation of new jobs in
the future depends on the
performance of job holders in the
corporations today.
Corporate margins improve when …
the rate of growth of revenues per
unit is faster than the rate of growth
of costs per unit.
Time
Each stage of corporate growth in
profit margins creates new jobs
and that
= creation of new national employment
Time
EXPANSIONARY MODE
= NEW JOBS
NET PROFITS GENERATED BY ECONOMIC
SECTOR AND YEAR FOR BOTSWANA
Tertiary Economic Sector Mining Sub-Sector
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TO CREATE EMPLOYMENT
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Where operational costs has
consistently exceeded revenues
Plant Production (Horticulture, Crop
& Forestry) Sub-Sector
Manufacturing excluding ‘Others’ &
Diamond Processing Sub-Sector
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-TO CREATE NEW EMPLOYMENT
-TO PROP THE ECONOMY UP
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For corporate margins to grow, the
operating costs would need to
decline relative to revenue.
More than half of what we use
everyday uses raw materials that are
produced rather than extracted.
Operating costs decline when …
Capacity to:
◦Produce (agriculture) raw materials
◦Primary crop and plant production that depends
less on warm crops and livestock
◦
Large-scale warm crop and livestock production
have adverse effects on climate (to create cloud
cover) that in-turn affects capacity for large-scale
plant production
◦Encourages irrigation
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As the nation produces its raw materials
and finished goods, it lowers costs of
production and therefore significantly
improves its capacity to create inclusive
employment
SECTORAL STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY
WHAT EMPLOYMENT WOULD LOOK LIKE
WHEN THE ECONOMY HAS A SOUND
STRUCTURE BY ECONOMIC SECTORS
These sectors present
high potential to
create & absorb
employment
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At Current Prices At Constant Prices
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These charts make it apparent the extent the economy is
‘propped up’ by the mining sector and more recently the
tertiary sector as well as inflationary pressures rather than
being “built-up” fundamentally on the backbones of producing
RAW MATERIALS within the primary industries.
Botswana In Leading Industrial
Nations (Source: Statista)
Germany:
◦Agriculture 1.64%
◦Manufacturing 28.24%
◦Services: 70.12%
Japan:
◦Agriculture 3.96%
◦Manufacturing 25.51%
◦Services: 70.52%
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WHEN THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN …
To the following happening:
◦For each person that stays unemployed:
POTENTIAL PER CAPITA INCOME = 10,168 pula
LOSS IN INCOME = 5,848 pula
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER MONTH = 4,320 pula
◦It therefore, reduces per capita income available to
the population
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4,320 pula per capita income in Botswana
8,983 pula (approx) per capita income in South Africa
33,308 pula (approx) per capita income in Germany
The opportunity cost to the nation for a less
than vibrant manufacturing and agriculture
economic sectors is (Botswana vs SA) :
8,983-4,320 = 4,663 pula (2x) per month or
The opportunity cost per annum is at least: 55,956 pula
or BWP 4,915,622,688 per annum, approx 5 billion pula
for the unemployed population.
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THE QUESTION IS …
to work at mitigating climate factors as a country
to improve our standards of living?
(BWP 4,915,622,688 per annum, approx 5 billion pula)
Such that :
◦it may be producing raw materials to subsist
i.e. for direct household consumption;
but
◦there is little indication it produces consistent chain
/ pipeline of supply of raw materials for manu-
facturing products to allow the retail sector to
grow at lower costs to;
create employment and thereby;
reduce the employment burden on the economy and
particularly on the government sectors
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the role of ICT in enabling the economic
structure will face the glass ceiling much sooner.
[PENDING DATA QUALITY ASSURANCE WORKS]
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INDICATOR
2011
PERCENTAGE
OF
POPULATON
PERCENTAGE
OF WORKING
POPULATON
✓
WORKING AGE POPULATION
(15-64 YEARS) [ADJ.] 1,439,500 60.8% 100%
✓
EMPLOYED FORMALLY 611,652 29.4% 42.5%
✓
THOSE SEEKING INCOME 541,320 26.0% 37.6%
✓NOT ECONOMICALLY
ACTIVE 327,256 15.7% 22.7%
✓WORKING AGE STUDENTS
(EST) 103,872 5.0& 7.2%
✓
ACTIVELY / DISCOURAGED
WORK SEEKERS 81,291 3.9% 5.6%
✓INFORMAL SECTOR (EST) 28,901 1.4% 2.0%
✓
THOSE NOT AVAILABLE TO
WORK
286,528 13.8% 19.9%
HOMEMAKERS
DISABLED
THE INCARCERTED
✓
NOT EMPLOYED FORMALLY 827,848 39.8% 57.5%
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INDICATOR
2011
BW
PERCENTAGE
OF
POPULATON
GERMANY
Source: OECD Data
✓
TOTAL POPULATION [ADJ.] 2,080,142 100%
✓
EMPLOYED FORMALLY 611,652 29.4% 62.1%
✓
NOT EMPLOYED FORMALLY 1,468,490 70.6% 37.9%
✓THE VERY YOUNG 539,770 26.0% 18.4%
✓NOT EMPLOYED
FORMALLY 827,848 39.8% 3.8%
✓THE ELDERLY 100,872 4.8% 15.7% (est.)
RATIO
DEPENDANTS : EMPLOYED 2.4 10.6
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AT APPROX. 60% UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS
FOUR JOBS ARE AVAILABLE FOR EVERY TEN PERSONS OF WORKING AGE.
PERSISTENT UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES AS
SUPPLY OF LABOUR OUTSTRIPS THE DEMAND FOR LABOUR
PERSISTENTLY
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To the following happening:
◦Creates high levels of dependency for each person
that is employed formally:
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2.4 dependents in Botswana
0.6 dependents in Germany
To the following happening:
◦Increased calls to government to provide for
entitlements to land, health and education and job
services as basic rights deserved to a human
◦Calls continue to government and businesses to
alleviate abject poverty
◦Capacity of population to support individual
retailers is reduced
◦Experience “difficulties” by government
programmes to lift young persons operating in
retail sectors as funds and resources become
siphoned off as “living expenses”.
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POPULATION DEMOGRAPHCS BY AGE, GENDER
AND MARITAL STATUS BY YEAR FOR BOTSWANA
[PENDING DATA QUALITY ASSURANCE WORKS]
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2001 2011
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Botswana World Population
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Significant
shrinkage at
35 years
There IS an 80% chance that a child is
born to an unmarried parent
To the following happening:
◦Is aware of but not a part of or track critical development
of populations as families & as communities
◦Creation of female fetuses and therefore skews the
population to adult females
◦Increased susceptibility to sexually-transmitted diseases
and confounding issues (substance abuses, family
incoherencies and instabilities)
◦Endures severe population shrinkages from 35 years to
illnesses, accidents, crimes, suicides and out-migration
◦Economy faces manpower losses at critical leadership
junctures of the sectors of the economy
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FURTHER …
he IS likely to be brought up by his
mother
Is unlikely to develop advanced
mathematics and science skills from
his father
and the “disdain” for hard sciences is
passed on to future generations
(for the majority)
EDUCATION DEMOGRAPHCS BY YEAR
FOR BOTSWANA
[PENDING DATA QUALITY ASSURANCE WORKS]
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[PENDING DATA QUALITY ASSURANCE WORKS]
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Botswana EU-28 (%)
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6% 16%7% 13%
To the following happening:
◦Tends to defer hard decisions to “the experts”
◦Lacks confidence rebutting or agreeing to findings
that uses the hard sciences. Takes on avoidance
strategy
◦Population lacks behaviours of discipline &
determination (grit) required for building strong
manufacturing bases
◦Tends to lose belief that creating results from
within is possible.
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To the following happening:
◦Skills for innovation is severely curtailed
Young population is forced to take “short-cuts”
(relying on persons they grew up trusting or giving in
to corruption and crime) to wealth, fame or to make
ends meet –tips the tertiary sector
Avoids collaboration with persons one is not familiar
with even if the latter may be skilled
Fosters the “tribal effect” or becomes inward-looking
Shares less need for building raw material supply
chains for the industry
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To the following happening:
◦Environment becomes less conducive for male
persons wanting to produce works based on his
hands and skills-manship
Impacts the levels he senses his achievements and
therefore his overall morale and emotional stability
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Q: WHAT STRATEGIES WOULD WE NEED AS A
NATION TO ABSORB THE 60% UNEMPLOYMENT
RATES
Attempts to “create” employment in “patches”
(either by regions, sectors, occupations or
age-groups and affords loans, grants or
projects) relieves the problem for now
Loses the capacity to deal with the whole and
therefore becomes costly to eliminate the
issue over time
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Export “unemployment” today at the same
rate we continue to import goods
Help persons learn to work as teams as
opposed to leading as individuals
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Population learns to match birth levels today
to the rate at which the country would create
jobs in two decades
With the view to reduce unemployment
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Engage the population by dialogue on
household decisions (from intact families to
choices in skills development) that impact the
national unemployment situation.
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Detract policies from saying “diversification
of” to “building of” the economy
Building a sound economic pyramid is not a
“distraction” from the country’s beef,
diamond and tourism industries
It is a fundamental strategy.
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Continued creation of a tipped or top-heavy economic
structure that creates an unstable economy with
inflationary trends and reduced money available for
spending
Chalking up of national budget deficits
Continued need by governments to bail corporations
and individuals out
Cries of unemployment persists within the political
arena
Continued need to allocate resources by private sector
to deal with substance abuses, crime and abject poverty
at national levels.
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TO ELIMINATE 60% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Systematic:
◦identification and mapping of latticed / matrixed
chains of raw material supply (value chains) for;
◦production of all goods and services across the
region for;
◦regional consumption and global exports and not
only for government and local consumption
Map the way BW would be plugged in to
southern Africa
May require undertaking a regional systemic
study to assess regional unemployment
situation.
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Thinking that we shall start small
feels good. It also assumes the
world has agreed to “wait for us”.
Agriculture Fashion
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Align and, where needed, develop human
resource skills to agriculture and
manufacturing sector bases with;
A particular emphasis on acquiring core and
advanced skills in:
English, Mathematics and Science that makes
them resilient & inclusive.
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Concerted setup of corporations in the sub-
sectors of:
◦the agriculture (crop or plant / raw material production)
and;
◦Manufacturing
that fits the regional/SADC industry value chain
matrices & schedule
Mitigate climate effects country-by-country to
institute the two bases
A fully integrated SADC manufacturing system
adds to its attractiveness.
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Invite:
◦regional industry leaders
◦global industry leaders or;
◦incentivize and groom local captains of industry (by
long-term overseas stints) so as to:
lead, chart and build the sub-sectors
bottoms-up including from both within
households and education
Aim: To absorb 60% national unemployment.
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The unemployment situation will
begin to reverse in five years
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4
WHEN THE LARGER
UNEMPLOYMENT STORY
PERSISTS …
ICT GRADUATE UNEMPLOYMENT (THE TIP
OF THIS ICEBERG) WOULD PERSIST.
ICT GRADUATE UNEMPLOYMENT WOULD BE
WIPED OUT
STEPS TO ACT ACTIONS BY
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7
Officers of HRDC in particular the Human
Resources Planning (Demand) and its Director
who was the lead research data collection
coordinator
Members of the ICT sub-sector committee for
their support and guidance
BURS for their support of statistical information
Statistics Botswana for their support of statistical
information
The results of this project would not have been
possible without the concerted effort by all to
ensure a credible data collection & organizational
process.
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Systems Thinking Leadership Development
Institution (STLDi)
Botswana
Maggie Hassan
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
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THE END
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