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*Green, K.C. & Armstrong, J.S. (2012). Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising.
Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, 31, 293-304.
**Ben-Shahar, O. & Schneider, C.E. (2011). The Failure of Mandated Disclosure. University of
Pennsylvania Law Review, 159, 647–749.
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*See Armstrong & Green (2013). Effects of corporate social responsibility
and irresponsibility policies. Journal of Business Research, 1922-1927.
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!!*
By the numbers*…
! 10 year “Bet” starts 2008
! 3 months remain
! Winning months
! IPCC/Gore: 35 (30%)
! No-change: 82 (70%)
! Mean absolute error
! IPCC/Gore: 0.19°C
! No-change: 0.16°C
! Mean error
! IPCC/Gore: +0.14°C
! No-change: −0.02°C
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See also Green & Armstrong (2014). Forecasting global climate change: A scientific approach.
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From the Global Warming Analogies Forecasting Project page at publicpolicyforecasting.com
!7*
Coding of analogies to manmade global warming alarm*
Analogy
Year** A B C D E
1
Population growth and famine (Malthus)
1798 1 -11 1 1
2
Timber famine economic threat
1865 3 -11 1 3
3
Uncontrolled reproduction and degeneration (Eugenics)
1883 3 -11 1 1
4
Lead in petrol and brain and organ damage
1928 2 0 1 1 1
5
Soil erosion agricultural production threat
1934 3 0 1 1 1
6
Asbestos and lung disease
1939 2 0 1 1 1
7
Fluoride in drinking water health effects
1945 3 0 0 n/a n/a
8
DDT and cancer
1962 3 -11 1 1
9
Population growth and famine (Ehrlich)
1968 1 -11 1 1
10
Global cooling; through to 1975
1970 3 -11 0 n/a
A. Forecasting method.
11
Supersonic airliners, ozone hole, skin cancer, etc.
1970 3 0 1 1 1 1=unrealistic mathematical model
12
Environmental tobacco smoke health effects
1971 2 -11 1 2 2=extrapolation to a near-zero dose of a genuine effect from a large dose
13
Population growth and famine (Meadows)
1972 1 -11 1 1 3=extrapolating hypothesized weak effect becoming important over time or large population
14
Industrial production and acid rain
1974 3 0 1 1 1 4=appropriate evidence-based forecasting procedures
15
Organophosphate pesticide poisoning
1976 2 0 1 1 3
B. Accuracy of forecasts was rated on a -1 to +1 scale
16
Electrical wiring and cancer, etc.
1979 3 -11 1 1 -1=wrong direction, 0=no, or minor, effect; +1=accurate
17
CFCs, the ozone hole, and skin cancer, etc.
1985 3 -11 1 1
C. Did the proposed action involve substantive government intervention?
18
Listeria in cheese
1985 2 -11 1 1
D. Did substantive government intervention take place, or not?
19
Radon in homes and lung cancer
1985 2 -11 1 1
E. Outcome of government policies to date on the value of their net benefit
20
Salmonella in eggs
1988 3 -11 1 1 1=government policies were harmful
21
Environmental toxins and breast cancer
1990 3 -11 0 n/a2=government policies were ineffective
22
Mad cow disease (BSE)
1996 3 -11 1 1 3=the net effects of government policies were uncertain
23
Dioxin in Belgian poultry
1999 3 -11 1 1 4=government policies were effective
24
Mercury in fish effect on nervous system development
2004 2 -11 1 1
25
Mercury in childhood inoculations and autism
2005 3 -11 1 1
*Initial codings by Green and Armstrong. We welcome evidence that relates to the codings.
26
Cell phone towers and cancer, etc.
2008 3 -11 1 1
**Approximate year that alarm was first raised.
Did government interventions help?
A/ Outcomes of interventions for the 23 situations with government
responses to alarming forecasts of environmental catastrophe:
Policies caused harm 20
Policies were ineffective/uncertain 3
Policies were effective 0
B/ Accuracy of forecasts for all 26 analogous situations:
Categorically wrong 19
Wrong in degree 7
C/ Unscientific methods (hence large errors only to be expected):
Unrealistic mathematical models 3
Extrapolating a genuine effect from a large dose to
an alarmingly widespread effect at near-zero dose 7
Extrapolating that a hypothesized weak effect might
become important over time or a large population 16
13
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Conditions Necessary for a Regulation to be Successful:
A Checklist for Regulators & Reviewers*
*Available from IronLawofRegulation.com. See also Green & Armstrong (2015) Australian Senate Economics
References Committee Inquiry submission, “Regulating choice: The need for evidence”. !8*
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Valid methods:
E.g. Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist
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