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Impact of Electricity Shortages on Productivity: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries

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Electricity shortages present a significant constraint on manufacturers, who rely on electricity as an important input into production. In China, electricity supply has been growing rapidly. However, the rapid industrialization sometimes makes the power supply still unable to meet the demand. Using a survey of 1673 Chinese manufacturing firms, this paper explores how firms response to electricity shortages and its impact on productivity. We find that self-generation of electricity and investment in Research and Development (R&D) have significant positive relationships with electricity shortages. Further investigations reveal that self-generation is the most common way to deal with electricity shortages. However, it aggravates productivity loss. Though investment in Research and Development can promote productivity, it cannot offset the negative impact of electricity shortages on productivity. Analyses on subsamples show heterogeneity in the impacts of electricity shortages across firms. In particular, large firms are more inclined to invest in R&D than small and medium-sized firms are. They are also the one who suffer significant productivity loss due to self-generation of electricity. Though it is possible for medium-sized firms to reduce productivity loss through R&D, they are not likely to invest in R&D as a response to electricity shortages. This study illustrates that firms can hardly have effective solutions to electricity shortages, and policy makers should take great efforts to increase electricity supply.
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Impact of Electricity Shortages on Productivity: Evidence from Manufacturing
Industries
Xinhong Xue
1
and Zhongcheng Wang
2
,
*
1
School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu, 233030, China
2
School of International Trade and Economics, Anhui University of Finance & Economics, Bengbu, 233030, China
*Corresponding Author: Zhongcheng Wang. Email: 120180005@aufe.edu.cn
Received: 11 October 2020 Accepted: 30 November 2020
ABSTRACT
Electricity shortages present a signicant constraint on manufacturers, who rely on electricity as an important
input into production. In China, electricity supply has been growing rapidly. However, the rapid industrialization
sometimes makes the power supply still unable to meet the demand. Using a survey of 1673 Chinese manufactur-
ing rms, this paper explores how rms response to electricity shortages and its impact on productivity. We nd
that self-generation of electricity and investment in Research and Development (R&D) have signicant positive
relationships with electricity shortages. Further investigations reveal that self-generation is the most common way
to deal with electricity shortages. However, it aggravates productivity loss. Though investment in Research and
Development can promote productivity, it cannot offset the negative impact of electricity shortages on produc-
tivity. Analyses on subsamples show heterogeneity in the impacts of electricity shortages across rms. In parti-
cular, large rms are more inclined to invest in R&D than small and medium-sized rms are. They are also
the one who suffer signicant productivity loss due to self-generation of electricity. Though it is possible for
medium-sized rms to reduce productivity loss through R&D, they are not likely to invest in R&D as a response
to electricity shortages. This study illustrates that rms can hardly have effective solutions to electricity shortages,
and policy makers should take great efforts to increase electricity supply.
KEYWORDS
Electricity shortages; research and development; productivity; electricity efciency
1 Introduction
Infrastructure is widely perceived to be basic and important for economic growth. For some resources,
like electricity, reliable and economic storage is hardly possible. Unreliable supply of electricity requires
rms to respond in other ways to ensure their performance.
In the past decades, China has spent greatly on power sector. However, electricity supply remains as an
important issue for Chinas economic and social development [13]. According to the prediction by China
Electricity Council (CEC), in the second half of 2020, there are still power shortages in Hunan, Jiangxi,
Guangdong, and Western Inner Mongolia during the peak period. Production and operation are suspended
when electivity is cut off. Though the cutoff is supposed to be orderly arranged, and enterprises can
adjust their production plan accordingly, losses are unavoidable. Responses, such as self-supply of
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which
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work is properly cited.
DOI: 10.32604/EE.2021.014613
ARTICLE
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electricity with generators, are taken to reduce the losses as much as possible. However, these responses can
be costly by themselves.
In this paper, we study how rms respond to electricity shortages and the impact on productivity. First,
we try to nd out whether there are effective measures to deal with power failure. To this end, we examine
rmsinvestment in technology, labor and generator. Although the impact of energy prices on productivity
and output has been recognized by the existing research, little discussion has been done about the impact of
electricity shortages on the investment in technologies. As most innovations in production processes are
reliant on electricity, we can expect that the electricity intensity of an industry is positively associated
with its technology intensity. In this case, electricity shortages would result in less use of new
technologies. An alternative is to invest in more electricity-efcient technologies, which may offset the
impact of electricity shortages on productivity. In this paper, we will explore how rms respond to
electricity shortages from the perspective of investment in technology.
Second, we also identify other possible partial solutions: Use of temporary workers and generating
electricity as site, namely self-generation. Although policymakers are well aware that electricity
shortages can be obstacles for economic growth, it is difcult to increase electricity supply in a short
period, because the construction of power infrastructure normally will take several years. The uctuation
of electricity demand and the delay of electric power investment will inevitably result in an unbalance
between electricity demand and supply. Quantifying the distortions of rmsactivities due to electricity
shortages will motivate policymakers to advance the plan for electric power investment.
Third, we examine whether rmsresponses can reduce the productivity loss caused by electricity
shortages. If the productivity loss due to electricity shortages cannot be reduced at rm level, increasing
electricity supply at the country level will be the best solution. For the policymakers, it is important to
increase power supply, and to do it in environmental-friendly way. This study will underline the
important role government plays in developing clean energy and promoting economic growth.
The remainder of the paper is organized as following. Section 2 is literature review; Section 3 represents
our empirical strategy, including the descriptions of data, the empirical model, and the variables we will use.
In Section 4, we will represent our results and discussion and Section 5 will be the conclusions.
2 Literature Review
This paper is part of the extensive literature that evaluates the economic effects of investment in
infrastructure. Based on a panel of 18 OECD countries during 18702009, Farhadi [4] found that the
growth of infrastructure could positively inuence the growth of labor productivity and total factor
productivity. Similarly, Banerjee et al. [5] found that access to transportation networks had a positive
causal effect on per capita GDP. Yu et al. [6] found positive spatial spillover effects of transport
infrastructure in Chinese regions during 19782009. Dimitriou et al. [7] studied the economic effects of
mega infrastructure project. Applying the input-output (IO) method, Dimitriou et al. [8] analyzed the
economic footprint of air transport in Greece, and found that the air transport sector contributed 10.8% of
the national GDP. When assessing the macroeconomic impact of Nigers Kandaji Dam project, Beguy
et al. [9] found that construction of the project spurred domestic production and increased GDP by 0.25.
The econometric estimations based on panel surveys of the households in rural Vietnam suggested that
grid electrication beneted not only the households in income, expenditure, and educational outcomes,
but also the rural economy as a whole [10]. Some studies have focused on the disproportionate impact of
public infrastructure deciencies. For example, Hallward-Driemeier et al. [11] and Dollar et al. [12]
revealed that in developing countries enterprisesaccess to infrastructure services varied by type of
service and rm size, with smaller rms shouldering disproportionate burdens.
996 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
Our paper is also part of the subset studies concerning about the impact of energy, especially electricity
supply, on economic growth and performance. Chakravorty et al. [13] examined the effects of connecting a
household to the grid and daily electricity supply on non-agricultural incomes. Using a panel of more than
10,000 households during the period between 1994 and 2005, they found that a grid connection could
increase non-agricultural incomes of rural households by about 9 percent. Lipscomb et al. [14] examined
the long-term effects of electrication on local income and population density in Brazil. They found large
positive effects of improved electricity supply on in-migration of people and rms. Based on an
econometric analysis with data from 1953 to 2010, Cheng [15] revealed that Chinas electricity
generation growth way-one Granger caused her GDP growth. Ou et al. [16] used a CGE model to
simulate the impacts of electricity shortages on Chinas Economy. They found that electricity shortages
affected the macro-economy negatively, and the light industry, the coal production industry, and the
heavy industry were most affected. Study of Pakistans agriculture sector, industrial sector, and service
sector also revealed that electricity shortages deteriorated output [17]. Moreover, power shortages led to
the closure of factories and the losses of jobs [18].
Some studies focused on the effects of electricity shortages on rmsactivities. To offset the negative
impacts of electricity shortages on operation, industrial rms often opt for self-generation of electricity.
A review of 25 sub-Saharan countries by Foster et al. [19] showed that in-house generation accounted for
more than 25 percent of the installed generating capacity, though self-generation is over 300 percent more
expensive than electricity supplied from the grid. Similarly, the study on developing countries by Alby
et al. [20] revealed that unreliable electricity supply induced rms to invest in costly generators or to
settle for second-best technologies in sectors whose rst-best technology depended heavily on electricity.
In these sectors, small rms were squeezed out of the nancial market by a high prevalence of power
outages and unable to borrow to expand production. Hallward-Driemeier et al. [11] and Dollar et al. [12]
also documented patterns of access to infrastructures in developing countries and show that electricity
were often the largest barrier, especially for small rms.
Besides the more adverse impact on small rms, unreliable electricity supply also has negative effects on
industry choices and performance. Abeberese [21] found that Indian rms switched to less electricity-
intensive production processes when there was an increase in electricity price, which led to lower output
and productivity growth rates. On the contrary, electricity network expansion could lead to an increase in
manufacturing output [22]. Allcott et al. [23] found that electricity shortages reduced the average Indian
rms revenues and producer surplus. Fisher-Vanden et al. [1] estimated the impacts of electricity
shortages in the early 2000s on Chinese manufacturing rms. They found that rms purchased more
electricity-intensive inputs in response to electricity shortages. This shift from maketo buy, namely
outsourcing, could be costly, but helped rms to avoid substantial productivity losses. A recent study
by Elliott et al. [24] revealed that as a result of rising electricity costs, Chinese manufacturing rms were
more likely to switch to a less energy intensive industry.
3 Methodologies
3.1 Data and Information on Chinese Firms
The material we use for empirical study is the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) of Chinese
manufacturing rms. The WBES conducted in 2012 provides the information on a random sample of
1,673 manufacturing rms over the scal year 2011 in 25 Chinese cities
1
. Most of these cities are in
eastern China and are either capital cities or main cities. The experience of these typical cities in
2011 could well represent the effects of energy supply on Chinese economic development in the past
decades of years.
1
The samples are from the following 25 cities: Hefei, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan,
Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Wuhan, Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Nantong, Shenyang, Dalian, Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai, Shanghai, Chengdu,
Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou.
EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4 997
Firmslocations and sizes can change their access to electricity. Capital cities or main cities, especially
those in eastern provinces, have priorities in electricity consumption, as they are the economic centers.
Important economic position makes it possible that these cities experience less power outages. Therefore,
it is plausible to believe that rms in these cities are less affected by electricity shortages. This may be a
disadvantage, because the impact of electricity shortages would be underestimated. Another important
factor is rmssizes. Large rms play an important role in local economic development. Though enjoying
more bargaining power over resources access, they are also vulnerable as they may use more machines in
production process. In fact, about 12% of the large rms in our investigation reported that they
experienced at least one power outage in a typical month in 2011.
Our work provides rm-level distribution of energy shortages. Based on the rm-level data on power
outages in a typical month over the scal year 2011, we build up two indicators of electricity shortages.
The measure is to divide rms into three groups. The rst group consists of rms who reported
experiencing no power outage. The second group includes rms who reported experiencing one power
outage in a typical month. The third group consists of rms who experienced two or more outages a
month. Among the 232 rms who experienced power outages 51 rms reported that they experienced
more than two times of outages a month, and 181 rms reported only one outage a month. Fig. 1 shows
the distribution of power outages.
The WBES dataset also provides information on sales, employees, investment in Research and
Development and so on over the scal year 2011. Tab. 1 is a summary of the information including the
number of rms, power outages, the average number of permanent and temporary employees, and the
number of rms who used licensed technology, invested in research and development (R&D), and owned
or shared a generator. According to the number of permanent, full-time employees at the end of 2011,
there are 228 rms with employees less than 20, and 724 rms with more than 100 employees. Firms
with employees between 20 and 100 are most likely to suffer from power outages. There are totally
210 rms owning or sharing a generator, and almost half of them are large rms. The large rms also
have the largest average number of temporary, full-time workers, the highest ratio of investing in R&D
and using licensed technology from a foreign company.
Figure 1: Distribution of power outages in a typical month and rmspermanent, full-time workers
998 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
There seems to be positive relationships between electricity shortages and self-generation, use of
temporary workers, and investment in new technology including using licensed technology from foreign
companies and investing in R&D. When production is signicantly affected by electricity shortages, rms
will respond in a number of ways to offset the effect. For example, a rm may choose to invest in more
electricity-efcient technologies either by investing in R&D or by buying technology from other
companies, which will increase output when electricity is available. Owning or sharing a generator will
provide self-generating electricity during blackout. If power outages are seasonal or scheduled, using
temporary workers to produce more when there are no blackouts are plausible.
In the following empirical analysis, we rst explore the ways Chinese manufacturing rms respond to
electricity shortages. Their responses have important policy implications. If there is a signicant positive
relationship between electricity shortages and investing in R&D, it implies that the investment in R&D
might be able to improve electricity efciency. Such technology will improve productivity, and at the
same is environmental friendly. Using licensed technology from foreign companies may have the same
implication. If a signicant positive relationship is found between electricity shortages and owning or
sharing a generator, it indicates that Chinese manufacturing rms turn to self-generation and might suffer
productivity loss, becasue the price of self-generation is higher than that of grid. If the production is
electricity-intensive, it is less likely to offset the effect of electricity shortages by using more labors as
most of the production processes depend on machines. A signicant positive relationship between
electricity shortages and temporary, full-time workers might imply that the production is less dependent
on electricity and more labor-intensive.
The second issue we are interested in is whether the above possible responses are able to relieve or offset
the impact of electricity shortages on rmsproductivity. Take R&D investment for example. Technology
innovation is closely related to productivity improvement. If productivity-enhancing technologies are
those that are electricity-intensive, technology development will make production more relied on
electricity. In this case, only more electricity-efcient technology will bring higher productivity when
there are electricity shortages.
According to the discussion above, we develop three testable hypotheses:
1. Investment in technology: Firms may invest in R&D or licensed technology from foreign-owned
companies when facing electricity shortages, implying a potential productivity improvement.
2. Self-Generation: Firms may turn to self-generation during power outages, resulting in high
production cost and low productivity.
3. Temporary workers: Firms may substitute away from machines toward labors to ensure production,
implying switching to less electricity-intensive industries.
Table 1: Descriptions of electricity shortages and other factors
Firm size Number
of rms
Power outages Generator Employees Temporary
workers
Licensed
technology
R&D
One Two or more
small 228 24 (10.6%) 3 (1.3%) 19 (8.3%) 13 3 21 (9.2%) 46 (20.2%)
medium 721 94 (13.2%) 19 (2.7%) 90 (12.5%) 55 8 148
(20.5%)
294
(40.8%)
large 724 63 (8.8%) 29 (4.0%) 101
(14.0%)
609 18 231
(31.9%)
379
(52.3%)
all rms 1673 181
(10.9%)
51 (3.1%) 210
(12.6%)
289 12 400
(23.9%)
719
(43.0%)
Note: Firms with employees less than 20 are small; rms with 20 to 100 employees are medium; rms with over 100 employees are large.
EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4 999
3.2 Empirical Model
To test the three hypotheses presented in Section 3.1, we start with examining the relationship between
electricity shortages and the possible responses: Investment in technology, self-generation and using
temporary, full-time workers. To this end, we use the following empirical Model 1:
responsei¼a0þa1outageiþa2outagesiþcontfirmiþcont regionrþgrþgjþei(1)
where idenotes rm, rdenotes region, and jdenotes industry. response
i
denotes rms responses to
electricity shortages, including investing in R&D, using licensed technology from foreign companies,
owning or sharing a generator, and using temporary, full-time employees. outage
i
and outages
i
are
indicators of power outages the rms experienced in a typical month. cont_rm
i
is a set of rm-level
control variables, including labor-productivity, human capital, size, ownership and exporting experience.
cont_region
r
consists of two region-level control variables, GDP and population of the cities where the
rms locate. η
r
and η
j
are xed effects for city and industry, respectively, to control bias due to
unobserved factors. ε
i
is the error term that includes all the unobservable factors.
Another important issue is whether these responses can offset the impact of electricity shortages on
productivity. As most of the production processes are reliant on electricity, we might expect it to be the
case that these responses are to relieve the impact of electricity shortages on productivity. The
identication of the effects is achieved through the presence of interaction terms between the indicators of
power outages and the indicators of the responses. A positive and signicant coefcient indicates that a
certain response can reduce productivity loss due to electricity shortages. To this end, we use the
following empirical Model 2:
laborprodi¼a0þa1outageiþa2outagesiþa3outageiresponseiþa4outagesireponsei
þ0cont firmiþcont regioniþgrþgjþei
(2)
where i,jand rdenote rm, industry and region, respectively. laborprod
i
represents labor productivity. All
the other symbols have the same meaning as in Model 1.
3.3 Measurements
1. Electricity shortages: outage
i
and outages
i
. In WBES dataset, the rms reported how many power
outages they experienced in a typical month. For rms who reported one power outage in a
typical month, variable outage
i
will be assigned value of one. Otherwise, it will be assigned zero.
outages
i
is one for rms who reported two or more outages. Otherwise, it is zero.
2. Investment in technology: R&D
i
and licensed_tech
i
. We use two dummies to indicate whether the
rms had invested in new technology. Dummy R&D
i
is equal to one for rms who had spent on
R&D. A second variable to measure investment in new technology, licensed_tech
i
, is based on the
report on whether using technology licensed by a foreign-owned company, excluding ofce
software. For the rms who reported Yes ,licensed_tech
i
is equal to one.
3. Self-generation: self_g
i
.self_g
i
is equal to one if a rm owned or shared a generator.
4. Temporary worker: temp_w
i
. It is the number of full-time seasonal or temporary workers.
5. Control variables: cont_rm
i
(rm-level control variables) and cont_region
r
(region-level control
variables). laborprod
i
denotes rmsproductivity. As there is no information on total output for
the calculation of total factor productivity, we use sales per capita as a proxy, where sales are
total annual sales for all products and services. worker_edu
i
, denoting human capital, is the ratio
of employees who completed second school to the total of full-time permanent workers. exporter
i
,
a dummy, is equal to 1 if more than 10% of the products is exported directly. According to the
denition of foreign direct investment in Chinese Statistical Yearbook, we dene foreign
i
as a
1000 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
dummy, equal to 1 if private foreign individuals, companies or organizations own over 10% share of
the rms. laborprod
i
,worker_edu
i
,exporter
i
, and foreign
i
are all rm-level control variables. The
region-level control variables include city_GDP
j
and city_pop
j
, denoting GDP and resident
population of the cities where the rms are located.
The denitions and sources of the variables are summarized in Tab. 2. The descriptive statistics are
presented in Tab. 3.
Table 2: Variables, their denitions and sources
Variable
type
Variable Denition Data sources
Electricity
shortages
outage Dummy, One power outage in a typical month World Bank
Enterprise Survey
outages Dummy, two or more power outages in a typical month
Possible
responses
R&D Dummy, investing in R&D World Bank
Enterprise Survey
licensed_tech Dummy, use licensed technology from a foreign-owned
company, excluding ofce software
self_g Dummy, own or share a generator
temp_w Number of full-time seasonal or temporary workers
cont_rm:laborprod labor productive: Logarithm of sales per capita World Bank
Enterprise Survey
worker_edu Human capital: Ratio of full-time permanent workers who
completed second school
exporter Dummy, more than 10% of the products is exported directly
foreign Dummy, over 10% share of the rms are owned by private
foreign individuals, companies or organizations
cont_region: city_GDP Logarithm of city GDP Statistical
yearbooks of each
city
city_pop Logarithm of resident population of the cities
Table 3: Descriptive statistics
Variable Mean SD Min Max
outage 0.109 0.311 0 1
outages 0.030 0.172 0 1
R&D 0.433 0.495 0 1
licensed_tech 0.241 0.428 0 1
self_g 0.125 0.331 0 1
temp_w 11.979 38.400 0 600
laborprod 12.458 1.034 8.911 17.770
worker_edu 50.285 28.205 0 100
exporter 0.198 0.398 0 1
foreign 0.075 0.264 0 1
city_GDP 8.646 0.451 7.701 9.862
city_pop 6.735 0.261 6.377 7.761
EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4 1001
4 Results and Discussion
4.1 Response of Chinese Manufacturing Firms as a Whole to Electricity Shortages
Our rst step is to investigate rmsresponses to electricity shortages by estimating the Model 1. Tab. 4
reports the results. We omit the rm-level and region-level control variables in odd-numbered columns (1),
(3), (5) and (7). Our results remain qualitatively unchanged when these variables are controlled for in the
even-numbered columns, indicating that our results are robust to a certain extent.
In column (1) and column (2), the coefcients on outage and outages are all positive and signicant
when the dependent variable is R&D. In column (2), the coefcients on outage and outages are
0.373 and 0.471, respectively. Electricity shortages increase the probability of investing in R&D. One
power outage a month increases the probability of investing in R&D by approximately 13.6%. The
probability would be even higher, namely 17.2%, if there are two power outages in a typical month.
The coefcients on control variables, except foreign and city_GDP, are positive and signicant. The
signicant positive relationship between electricity shortages and investment in R&D suggests that when
facing electricity shortages, rms are likely to adopt new and advantage technologies or machines. We
will investigate in Sector 4.4 whether R&D investment aims at relieving the impact of electricity
shortages on productivity.
Table 4: Estimations for rmsresponse and electricity shortages
Dependent Variable: response
Independent
Variables
response =R&D response =licensed_tech response = temp_w response =self-g
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
outage 0.196*
(0.101)
0.373***
(0.106)
0.069
(0.110)
0.075
(0.119)
2.972
(4.008)
3.932
(4.299)
1.187***
(0.106)
1.153***
(0.110)
outages 0.478***
(0.183)
0.471**
(0.190)
0.024
(0.197)
0.122
(0.201)
14.518
(10.278)
13.862
(10.293)
1.337***
(0.183)
1.175***
(0.185)
city_pop 0.386**
(0.171)
0.460***
(0.175)
12.623***
(4.304)
0.366
(0.228)
city_GDP 0.477***
(0.094)
0.193*
(0.102)
6.633**
(2.820)
0.256**
(0.122)
laborprod 0.198***
(0.032)
0.076**
(0.035)
1.893*
(1.047)
0.100**
(0.041)
worker_edu 0.007***
(0.001)
0.006***
(0.001)
0.015
(0.031)
0.005***
(0.001)
foreign 0.203
(1.127)
0.719***
(0.125)
1.251
(4.554)
0.212
(0.162)
exporter 0.427***
(0.084)
0.437***
(0.089)
6.017**
(2.995)
0.360***
(0.106)
constant 0.088
(0.088)
1.393
(1.013)
0.364***
(0.097)
6.614***
(1.057)
18.858***
(2.856)
34.702
(27.646)
1.505***
(0.125)
2.370*
(1.362)
City xed effects & Industry xed effects are controlled
observations 1647 1621 1645 1617 1631 1609 1658 1631
R
2
0.01 0.07 0.03 0.12 0.01 0.02 0.13 0.16
Notes: (1) *, **, ***: Coefcients are statistically signicant at the levels of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (2) In the parentheses are robust standard
error.
1002 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
Though R&D is an important source for technology development, the failure of R&D will result in
nothing of any new or advanced technologies. Besides, self-reported R&D investment could be noisy and
subjective because it is based on the rmsself-assessment about their product or process innovations.
Therefore, following Montalbano et al. [25], we use variable licensed_tech as an indicator of investment
in advanced technology. The results are presented in column (3) and column (4). To our surprise, the
coefcients on outage are not signicant. Neither are the coefcients on outages. In column (5) and
column (6) are the estimations for using temporary, full-time workers. The coefcients on outage and
outages are positive, but not signicant. This means using more temporary labors is not a popular way to
deal with electricity shortages.
Column (7) and column (8) report the results for owning or sharing a generator. The coefcients on the two
indicators of electricity shortages are positive and signicant at the 1% level. In particular, for rms who reported
one outage a month, the probability of owning or sharing a generator is 19.6 percent higher. For rms who
experienced two or more outages, the probability is almost 20 percent higher. It is highly possible that rms
use self-generated electricity to relieve the impact of electricity shortages on their production.
4.2 Robustness Tests
As can be seen from Tab. 1, the small rms have the smallest sample size and the lowest ratio in
spending on R&D and generator. Spending on R&D and generator have a higher request for nancing
ability. However, small rms are in an inferior positon. Missing of the control for rmsabilities to
obtaining nance may result in misleading conclusions. In Tab. 4, the insignicant coefcients on power
outages may catch not only the effect of power outages, but also the effect of nancial abilities. The rms
reported to what degree access to nanceis an obstacle to their operation in the WBES. Thus, we add
anance-specic variable, naccess, to Model 1. naccess is equal to zero when access to nance is
reported as no obstacleor minor obstacle, and equal to one when access to nance is regarded as
moderate obstacle,major obstacle,orvery severe obstacle. The results are presented in column (1)
and column (4) of Panel A and Panel B in Tab. 5. After controlling for the nancial abilities, there
remain signicant positive relationships between electricity shortages and two types of responses, namely,
investment in R&D and self-generation. Our results remain qualitatively unchanged from those in Tab. 4.
Table 5: Robustness tests
Dependent variable: response
Panel A (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
response =R&D response =licensed_tech
outage 0.321*** (0.107) 0.368*** (0.107) 0.383*** (0.114) 0.081 (0.119) 3.932 (4.299) 0.072 (0.125)
outages 0.505*** (0.194) 0.522** (0.193) 0.457** (0.197) 0.114 (0.201) 13.862 (10.293) 0.115 (0.205)
constant 1.993* (1.066) 1.332 (1.033) 0.822 (1.093) 6.797*** (1.072) 34.702 (27.646) 6.859*** (1.151)
observations 1611 1611 1410 1607 1609 1405
R
2
0.09 0.08 0.07 0.12 0.02 0.11
Panel B response =temp_w response =self-g
outage 3.190 (4.363) 3.588 (4.245) 3.912 (4.855) 1.147*** (0.111) 1.174*** (0.111) 1.209*** (0.119)
outages 14.329 (10.390) 14.378 (10.477) 14.188 (10.923) 1.195*** (0.189) 1.219*** (0.188) 1.241*** (0.192)
constant 30.775 (28.273) 25.658 (27.732) 24.331 (31.737) 2.344* (1.396) 2.355* (1.407) 2.542* (1.457)
observations 1598 1598 1397 1620 1620 1418
R
2
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.17 0.18 0.18
Notes: (1) *, **, ***: Coefcients are statistically signicant at the levels of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (2) In the parentheses are robust standard
error. (3) Control variables and xed effects are also included in estimating, but not reported here in order to save space.
EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4 1003
To investigate whether the above results hold, we use another measure of naccess. When access to
nance is taken as major obstacleor very severe obstacle,naccess is equal to one. Otherwise, it is
equal to zero. The results are reported in column (2) and column (5) of Panel A and Panel B. We get
consistent results, too.
Another source of bias is the sample size of the small rms. The small rms take only 13.6% of the
whole sample. The WBES sample for China is selected using stratied random sampling at three levels:
Industry, establishment size, and region. To some degree, the small sample size of the small rms is due
to their small part in the industry or in the region. For the sake of robustness, Model 1 is estimated
without the small rms. The results are presented in column (3) and column (6) of Panel A and Panel B
in Tab. 5. Again the results are very similar to the previous ones.
4.3 Heterogeneity in Responses to Electricity Shortages
In sector 4.1, we investigate the ways rms respond to electricity shortages using all the rms as a
sample, and the results are proved robust in Sector 4.2. However, how to respond to electricity shortages
is also related to some characteristics of the rms. For example, investment in R&D and licensed
technology incur high costs. Small rms usually have less nancial resource to cover the costs. On the
other hand, small rms are more exible in management and production plan so that it is more possible
for them to offset the impact through coordinating production plans with electricity supply. The WBES
classies rms into three groups: Small, medium, large according to their number of employees. The
small rms are those with less than 20 employees (excluding 20). The medium-sized rms are those with
20 to 100 employees (excluding 100). The rms with more than 100 employees are large. Tab. 6 reports
the results of the heterogeneous responses to electricity shortages across rms of different sizes.
As can be seen in Tab. 6, the heterogeneous responses exist mainly in the relationship between electricity
shortages and investment in R&D. In particular, column (1) and column (2) in Panel A represent the results
Table 6: Heterogeneous responses to electricity shortages
Dependent variable: response
Independent variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
small rms medium-sized rms large rms small rms medium-sized rms large rms
Panel A
response =R&D response =liecensed_tech
outage 0.233 (0.309) 0.203 (1.151) 0.729*** (0.193) 0.029 (0.417) 0.037 (0.187) 0.127 (0.178)
outages 0.449 (0.802) 0.263 (0.307) 0.606** (0.263) —— 0.017 (0.343) 0.212 (0.259)
constant 4.987* (2.812) 0.340 (1.561) 0.965 (1.601) 4.706 (3.313) 6.736*** (1.760) 7.203*** (1.587)
observations 225 695 701 223 691 700
R
2
0.04 0.04 0.12 0.25 0.14 0.09
Independent variables Panel B
response =temp_w response =self_g
outage 2.516 (1.525) 0.813 (1.723) 10.907 (11.746) 0.792** (0.322) 1.273*** (0.164) 1.266*** (0.183)
outages 2.114 (2.293) 1.287 (3.740) 21.613 (17.514) —— 1.460*** (0.305) 1.129*** (0.246)
constant 17.355 (10.806) 74.277** (32.626) 2.623 (56.730) 0.795 (3.556) 2.146 (2.280) 2.416 (1.932)
observations 225 694 690 216 698 707
R
2
0.05 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.21
Notes: (1) *, **, ***: Coefcients are statistically signicant at the levels of 10%, 5% and 1% respectively. (2) In the parentheses are robust standard error. (3)
Other control variables and xed effects are also included in estimating, but not reported here in order to save space. (4) “—” means perfect collinearity.
1004 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
for the small rms and the medium-sized rms, respectively. The coefcients on outage and outages are
positive, but not signicant. It is probably because R&D is a too costly for them. Contrary to the small
and the medium-sized rms, we nd a signicant positive relationship between electricity shortages and
R&D investment in the large rms as shown in column (3) Panel A.
From column (4) to column (6) in Panel A and from column (1) to column (3) in Panel B are results for
using licensed technology and temporary workers, respectively. No coefcients on the indicators of
electricity shortages are signicant. In contrast, all the coefcients on the indicators of electricity
shortages in columns (4), (5), and (6) in Panel B are positive and signicant, implying that all rms,
regardless of their sizes, are likely to turn to self-generation. Our nding differs from Fisher-Vanden et al.
[1] in respective of large rms. Their sample focused on the largest electricity users and they found that
large rms did not self-generate electricity often.
So far, we have consistently found that when the rms are faced with electricity shortages, they are likely
to invest in R&D, or to generate electricity themselves. However, we do not nd any evidence for adopting
licensed technology or hiring temporary workers as solutions to electricity shortages.
4.4 Effects on Labor Productivity
In Sections 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3, our empirical analyses reveal that investment in R&D and self-generation
are positively related to electricity shortages. We want to nd out whether these responses can relieve the
negative impact of electricity shortages on productivity. To this end, we estimate Model 2. Our interest is
on the interaction terms involving the responses and the indicators of electricity shortages. We expect that
the coefcients on the interaction terms will be positive, if a certain response can offset the impact of
electricity shortages on productivity.
Tab. 7 reports the results. From column (1) to column (4) are the results for R&D investment. The result
for all rms in column (1) shows that no interaction terms are signicant, while the coefcients on R&D is
positive and signicant at the 1% level. Investing in R&D can promote labor productivity, but cannot offset
the impact of electricity shortages. The results from column (2) to column (4) reveal that in medium-sized
rms it is not the case. In particular, the coefcient on the interaction term of outages and R&D in
column (3) is positive and signicant at the 5% level, implying that R&D investment in medium-sized
rms can improve labor productivity by offsetting the impact of electricity shortages. We do not nd the
same effects in the large rms or in the small rms. Instead, we nd that in the large rms the coefcient
on R&D is signicant and positive, while the coefcients on the interaction terms are not signicant.
Therefore, the positive effect of R&D investment on productivity exists mainly in the large rms, while
the effect of offsetting the negative impact of electricity shortages exists mainly in the medium-sized rms.
From column (5) to column (8) in Tab. 7 are the results for self-generation. To our surprise, the
coefcients on the interaction terms are all negative. Particularly, the coefcients on the interaction terms
of self-generation and the indicator of outages are negative and signicant in the full sample and the sub-
sample of large rms. Generating electricity on site not only requires additional capital and diesel
purchases, but also crowds out other investment opportunities and reduces productivity. When power
outages happen occasionally, self-generation will ensure rms from output reduction. However, self-
generation is costly. Frequent self-generation will make it less advisable because it will increase
production cost disproportionally, especially when the production is highly electricity dependent, such as
in large rms who use more machines or more electricity-intensive technologies. Therefore, we reach the
conclusion that rms do not self-generate electricity to reduce the loss of labor productivity due to
electricity shortages.
EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4 1005
5 Conclusions
In this study, we explore the responses of manufacturing rms to electricity shortages and their effects on
labor productivity using the WBES dataset. We nd that when facing electricity shortages, rms of all sizes
switch to self-generation. However, self-generation causes productivity loss, which is most obvious in the
large rms to whom generators are most accessible. We also nd that rms, especially large rms, are
more probable to spend on R&D. Nevertheless, the medium-sized rms benet from R&D from the
perspective of reducing productivity loss due to electricity shortages. The large rms can improve their
productivity through R&D, but cannot offset the negative impact of electricity shortages. Besides, we do
not nd that using more labors or licensed technologies can play important roles in coping with
electricity shortages. To sum up, our study reveals that self-generation is the most adopted, but also costly
solution to electricity blackouts. Technology developments from R&D can promote productivity, but
cannot offset the negative impact of blackouts on productivity.
The results of this paper underline the importance of infrastructure supply in developing countries. Faced
with infrastructure constrainsin this case, unreliable electricity supplyrms may use costly self-generation
in an attempt to rely less on that infrastructure. However, this damages productivity. Though new technology is
usually supposed to promote productivity, our ndings remind us that electricity shortages cannot be offset by
technology innovations in manufacturing sectors, because technology development makes machines more
widely used, and thus production becomes more electricity-intensive. Although this paper addresses
electricity shortages specically, one can imagine that rms may react in undesirable ways to cope with
other infrastructure constraints. The ndings in this study also imply the important role the government
should play in infrastructure supply, as it can hardly be economically self-sufcient at rm level. Although
our study seem to suggest that more power plants be built, this conclusion could not be made at the
expenses of environment. Actually, it is more advisable for policy makers to consider other mechanisms to
trade off the social cost of investing in energy supply with the benets.
Funding Statement: This work is supported by Philosophy and Social Sciences Planned Project of Anhui
Province, China(Grant No. AHSKY2020D37).
Table 7: Estimations for the effects on labor productivity
Dependent variable: laborprod
Independent
Variables
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
all rms small medium large all rms small medium large
response =R&D response = self_g
outage
response
0.089
(0.146)
0.206
(0.573)
0.111
(0.173)
0.049
(0.236)
0.158
(0.176)
0.841
(0.524)
0.001
(0.221)
0.014
(0.315)
outages
response
0.101
(0.333)
1.913
(2.153)
0.743**
(0.364)
0.162
(0.279)
0.607**
(0.293)
—— 0.303
(0.426)
0.737***
(0.283)
response 0.325***
(0.055)
0.243
(0.154)
0.118
(0.078)
0.554***
(0.087)
0.259**
(0.101)
0.241
(0.205)
0.130
(0.155)
0.348**
(0.160)
constant 11.361***
(0.758)
11.646***
(1.844)
11.966***
(1.013)
10.444***
(1.262)
11.625***
(0.761)
11.690***
(1.787)
12.047***
(1.027)
11.116***
(1.281)
observations 1622 225 696 701 1631 226 698 707
R
2
0.05 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06
Notes: (1) *, **, ***: Coefcients are statistically signicant at the levels of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (2) In the parentheses are robust standard
error. (3) Independent variables outage and outages, other control variables, and xed effects are also included in estimating, but not reported here in
order to save space. (4) “——” means perfect collinearity.
1006 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
Conicts of Interest: The authors declare that they have no conicts of interest to report regarding the
present study.
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1008 EE, 2021, vol.118, no.4
... Besides, it is noted that, aside from analyzing the impacts of electricity shortages on SCs, most scholars investigate the impacts at the firm level through surveys and empirical models (Fisher-Vanden, Mansur, and Wang 2015;Grainger and Zhang 2019;Xue and Wang 2021;Guo et al. 2023;Jia, Guo, and Liu 2023), and few researchers provide empirical evidence at the national level (Stankovski et al. 2023). Interested readers can refer to these studies for further information. ...
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