Objective. To determine the novel proposed nomogram model accuracy in the prediction of the lower-extremity amputations (LEA) risk in diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). Methods and Materials. In this retrospective study, data of 125 patients with diabetic foot ulcer who met the research criteria in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2015 to December 2019 were collected by filling in the clinical investigation case report form. Firstly, univariate analysis was used to find the primary predictive factors of amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer. Secondly, single factor and multiple factor logistic regression analysis were employed to screen the independent influencing factors of amputation introducing the primary predictive factors selected from the univariate analysis. Thirdly, the independent influencing factors were applied to build a prediction model of amputation risk in patients with diabetic foot ulcer by using R4.3; then, the nomogram was established according to the selected variables visually. Finally, the performance of the prediction model was evaluated and verified by receiver working characteristic (ROC) curve, corrected calibration curve, and clinical decision curve. Results. 7 primary predictive factors were selected by univariate analysis from 21 variables, including the course of diabetes, peripheral angiopathy of diabetic (PAD), glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), white blood cells (WBC), albumin (ALB), blood uric acid (BUA), and fibrinogen (FIB); single factor logistic regression analysis showed that albumin was a protective factor for amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer, and the other six factors were risk factors. Multivariate logical regression analysis illustrated that only five factors (the course of diabetes, PAD, HbA1c, WBC, and FIB) were independent risk factors for amputation in patients with diabetic foot ulcer. According to the area under curve (AUC) of ROC was 0.876 and corrected calibration curve of the nomogram displayed good fitting ability, the model established by these 5 independent risk factors exhibited good ability to predict the risk of amputation. The decision analysis curve (DCA) indicated that the nomogram model was more practical and accurate when the risk threshold was between 6% and 91%. Conclusion. Our novel proposed nomogram showed that the course of diabetes, PAD, HbA1c, WBC, and FIB are the independent risk factors of amputation in patients with DFU. This prediction model was well developed and behaved a great accurate value for LEA so as to provide a useful tool for screening LEA risk and preventing DFU from developing into amputation.
1. Introduction
As a common epidemic in the 21st century, the prevalence of diabetes is exploding all over the world and becoming a major public health concern [1]. According to statistics, about 415 million people worldwide are known to have diabetes in 2015, and this number is still continuously growing, up to an estimated 642 million people by 2040 with a 55% increase in the next 20 years [2]. At the same time, as an inevitable result of the rapid increase in the number of people with diabetes, the incidence of diabetes complications has also presented a corresponding dramatic rise which put low-income and middle-income countries at the greatest risk of death [3, 4].
Based on the two main etiological factors of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease (PAD), diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is one of the most serious complications of diabetes, which makes a great contribution to most causes of nontraumatic lower-extremity amputations (LEA) and leads high mortality [5, 6]. It is reported that the long-term prognosis after LEA, which is closely related to DFU, is extremely poor, with a 3-year mortality rate ranging from 35% to 50% [7]. In the longer term, the overall 5-year mortality rate was even higher, ranging from 52% to 80% with major amputations and from 53% to 100% for those with any amputation [8].
DFU and their worst adverse consequences, especially amputation, have a catastrophic impact on the mental and physical health of patients, including prolonged hospitalization, heavy economic burden, difficult treatment, significantly impaired quality of life, and eventually lead to high mortality, making it urgent to propose an efficient strategy for prevention and treatment [9]. Efforts to prevent amputation therefore deserve more focuses, and it could be achieved by risk factor identification. Previous studies have shown that there are many significant risk factors for amputation in patients with diabetic foot, including long-term hyperglycemia, inflammatory markers, duration of diabetes, PAD, age, Wagner grade, and osteomyelitis [9]. Regrettably, there is no efficient predictive tool has been yet developed in this direction to estimate the risk of amputation in patient with DFU.
Considering these challenges, we tent to establish a predictive nomograms model to quantify the risk of amputation in patients with diabetic foot and to propose precautionary protocols. The nomogram can graphically represent the numerical relationship between specific disease and risk factors and intuitively predict the incidence of adverse events through a scoring system without any complicated calculation formula. From this point of view and based on previous study, we hope to provide a useful tool for clinicians to early identify and develop optimal treatment regimen for patients with diabetic foot to avoid unpleasant events such as amputation.
2. Methods and Materials
2.1. Study Design and Participants
In order to solve this clinical problem, we designed and implemented a retrospective study and 125 type 2 DM patients with diabetic foot ulcer who were hospitalized in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2015 to December 2019 were included in this study at all. Among the 125 patients, 66 patients were from the Trauma and Microorthopaedics Center of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, and 59 patients were from the Diabetes Center of Endocrinology Department of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. The criteria for inclusion and exclusion were as follows: inclusion criteria: (1) all participating patients meet the type 2 DM diagnostic criteria issued by WHO (World Health Organization) in 1999 and the DFU diagnostic criteria issued by IDWGF in 2015, (2) the age of patients was over 18 years, and (3) all patients have informed consent to this study; exclusion criteria: (1) type 1 DM patients or secondary DM patients, (2) diabetic patients during pregnancy and lactation, (3) patients with other infections except DFU infection, (4) patients with malignant tumor, and (5) patients with severe lack of case data. This study has been approved by the Ethics Committee of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University.
2.2. Data Collection
We designed the clinical investigation case report form (CRF) to collect the clinical data of the patients from the Hospital Information System (HIS) system of Zhongnan Hospital, including general demographic data such as sex, age, BMI, course of diabetes; history of diabetic complications, including diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic nephropathy (DN), and peripheral angiopathy of diabetic (PAD); and results of fasting venous blood biochemical examination for the first time after admission, including fasting blood glucose (FBG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), white blood cells (WBC), red cell distribution width (RDW), total protein (TP), albumin (ALB), total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), blood uric acid (BUA), and fibrinogen (FIB). According to the CRF, we design an epidata database to collect survey data, and in order to control the quality of data, all data were input and checked in parallel by two people.
2.3. Statistical Analysis
The data of continuous variables obeying normal distribution and nonnormal distribution are represented by “mean±standard deviation (x±s)” and “median (lower quartile, upper quartile) (M (P25p75)), respectively. Continuous variables that obey normal distribution are tested by -test, and continuous variables that do not obey normal distribution are tested by nonparametric rank sum test (Wilcoxon). The categorical variables were expressed by percentage constituent ratio and chi-squared test used for comparison between groups. All the statistics were tested by two-side test, with value less than 0.05 considered to be statistically significant. All confidence intervals (CI) are set to 95%. Primary predictive factors were submitted to single factor logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis to distinguish if they were influence factor or independent influence factors of amputation in patients with diabetic foot if their values were less than 0.05 in the univariate analysis. Based on the independent influencing factors of amputation in patients with diabetic foot, we used the R4.2 software to establish a nomogram prediction model. Area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve was used to estimate the performance of the nomogram prediction model. The accuracy of the model was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and a corrected calibration curve which includes 2000 bootstrap samples was used for the internal validation of the nomogram prediction model. The decision analysis curve (DCA) was employed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram by analyzing the net benefit under different risk thresholds in patients with diabetic foot. All statistical analysis was carried out by using the SPSS26.0 and R4.2 software.
3. Results
3.1. Baseline Clinical Characteristics of Participants
Among the 125 DFU patients in the study, there were 22 patients with gangrene, 43 patients with severe infection, and 32 patients with severe PAD. Among these patients, there were 84 males and 41 females, of whom 58 (46.4%) underwent amputation (amputation group), with an average age of years old, and 67 (53.6%) without amputation (nonamputation group), with an average age of years. In the univariate analysis, the differences of the clinical data for 7 (course of DM, PAD, HbA1C, WBC, ALB, BUA, and FIB) of the 21 variables in the amputation group and nonamputation group were statistically significant (). There were no significant differences in age, sex, BMI, DR, DN, FBG, TP, RDW, TBIL, DBIL, TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C between the two groups (),showed as Table 1.
Variables
Without amputation ()
Amputation ()
/ value
value
Age (years)
-0.445
0.657
Gender (male/female)
46/21
38/20
0.139
0.709
BMI (kg/m²)
25.54 (23.36, 28.25)
25.40 (22.94, 29.15)
-2.500
0.803
Course of T2DM (years)
6.00 (4.00, 9.00)
10.00 (8.00, 15.25)
-4.680
<0.001
DR
19/48
25/33
2.963
0.085
DN
34/33
30/28
0.012
0.913
PAD
22/45
40/18
16.233
<0.001
FBG (mmol/L)
9.58 (6.54, 11.97)
9.60 (6.54, 13.00)
-0.451
0.652
WBC (10⁹/L)
7.02 (4.92, 8.19)
7.68 (6.11, 11.20)
-2.725
0.006
RDW (%)
13.40 (12.80, 14.30)
13.45 (12.78, 14.33)
-0.446
0.656
HbA1c (%)
1.288
<0.001
TP (mmol/L)
-1.550
0.121
ALB (g/L)
0.657
0.002
TBIL (μmol/L)
9.00 (7.40, 12.00)
9.95 (7.65, 13.38)
-0.589
0.556
DBIL (μmol/L)
2.00 (1.50, 2.70)
2.30 (1.20, 3.43)
-0.860
0.390
BUA (mmol/L)
313.20 (238.00, 376.00)
262.10 (208.35, 352.85)
-1.671
0.095
TC (mmol/L)
3.76 (3.09, 4.80)
3.36 (3.04, 4.22)
-1.767
0.077
TG (mmol/L)
1.01 (0.67, 1.59)
1.12 (0.84, 1.41)
-1.802
0.441
HDL-C (mmol/L)
-0.893
0.374
LDL-C (mmol/L)
0.279
0.632
FIB (mg/dL)
394.00 (330.00, 454.00)
480.50 (390.75, 578.00)
-3.767
<0.001