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Armenian foreign policy in the wake of the Velvet Revolution
Abstract
The purpose of the article was to analyse the implications of the Velvet Revolution on the bilateral relations of Armenia with the entities of supra-regional reach (European Union and Russian Federation) and Poland, in the context of active shaping of the eastern dimension of the European Union foreign policy by this country. The article focuses on the external relations of Armenia in the second decade of the twenty-first century, emphasising the consequences of the events of 2018. The topicality of the issues raised by the authors and their key importance in shaping the foreign policy by the centre of power in Yerevan following the phase of the revolutionary transformation in the country deserves particular attention. The relations between Warsaw and Yerevan are a result of the relations between UE, NATO and the Russian Federation, but also of the dialogue between Poland and Russia. Despite the aspirations of the Polish authorities to shape pragmatic and active politics towards Armenia to bring this country closer to the European structures, the possibilities of Warsaw in this respect are limited.
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Since April 2018, Armenia has gone through a series of dramatic events. Convinced of its ‘democratic invincibility,’ the regime that emerged after ‘the Velvet Revolution’ espoused the view that Armenia’s new, democratic facade must secure increased support from Brussels and Washington and continued loyalty from its security provider – the Kremlin. Nevertheless, the perennial security issues, chief among them the unresolved Nagorno Karabakh conflict, were overlooked by the new elite. This article examines the sources of the foreign policy-making style of the populist regime in Armenia and explores the extent to which they have affected the decision-making process and its ‘resultants.’ The article argues that the incoherent and erratic nature of the new regime’s policy formulation and enactment, which underestimated acute security challenges and degraded existing institutional checks and balances, caused unprecedented wreckage to Armenia’s national security architecture.
The article aims to contribute to the discourse on the latest armed
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by analysing its causes and implications. Starting with the failure of the diplomatic process, it examines various factors, ranging from imbalances in local armed forces to broader changes in the region’s geopolitical order that contributed to a shift in dynamics in this unresolved dispute and the outbreak of a new armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan defeated Armenia decisively thanks to military superiority gained through increased military spending and political,
military, and logistical assistance from Turkey. with this in mind, Turkey’s role in the dynamics of this conflict is regarded as crucial. Furthermore, given Russia’s traditional role as a mediator in unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space, changes in Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations are analysed as factors that influenced the creation of conditions in which Azerbaijan would feel strong enough to launch a new war. Russia’s response is being considered in particular because, despite initial restraint, it has preserved its role as a key mediator in achieving peace in the region, seizing the opportunity to further strengthen it by deploying peacekeeping troops. although the armistice agreement ended the war, the question of the disputed area’s final status remained unresolved. Because this is a critical issue for both parties, a future flare-up of hostilities can only be avoided if Azerbaijan and Armenia achieve an agreement on the final political status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, unresolved conflict, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Russia, OSCE MINSK group
Since the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the EU in January 2007, the South Caucasus has become a region of direct concern to the EU's strategy in its wider neighborhood. This study examines the trends affecting EU policies in the South Caucasus, with a specific focus on EU-Azerbaijan relations. It argues that in the three main areas in which Azerbaijan affects Europe's interests - cooperation in the energy sector, democratization and conflict resolution - so far the EU has engaged well on a regional energy strategy, but less so on democratic reforms and almost not at all on conflict settlement in Nagorno Karabakh. The study concludes that the EU needs to balance its involvement in all three areas, especially given the deeper democratic changes it wishes to see in Azerbaijan, with a list of recommendations for doing so.
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