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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation: The Impact of the Infrastructure Flagship Project Pipeline on the Mobility Needs of the Greater Capital Region and Recommendations to Bridge the Gap

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Abstract and Figures

The Philippines has a massive public transport shortage, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic and the decision to tighten public transport supply in 2020. This shortage impeded efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus and contributed to the country's worst postwar recession, as non-home-based workers found it much harder to move and go to work (SWS, 2021). We find that even if the entire rail-heavy Php 2 trillion public transport infrastructure flagship project pipeline is completed on time over the next decade, the Greater Capital Region area will still experience a system-wide shortage in public transport supply, even with conservative demand growth assumptions. We estimate this using passenger trip survey data and publicly available reports on the passenger ridership of the flagship projects. In pursuit of a more efficient and sustainable use of public funds, we recommend a better balance for a better normal: a shift in the country's infrastructure pipeline to include more active transport infrastructure promoting walking and cycling, as well as expanding road-based public transport modes through public utility vehicle gross-cost service contracting, bus rapid transit investments, and other complementary infrastructure. These programs would contribute the largest impact to improving public transport supply in the short-term and the medium-term, require far less investment while enabling equal mobility capacity, and enhance the network effects of the public transport flagship project pipeline being built. We recommend that future infrastructure projects be evaluated based on people-and nature-oriented metrics-how interventions improve the service quality of and commuting experience in public transport. Such metrics include, but are not limited to, shorter waiting times, less crowding, faster travel from point A to point B, reduced generalized cost for commuters, adherence to health protocols, less carbon emissions, improved access for persons with disability, gender sensitivity, reduced transfers, and safer commutes. Critical comment welcome via Katreena Chang <katreena.chang@gmail.com>. JEL Classification: R41, H61, O18.
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation:
The Impact of the Infrastructure Flagship Project Pipeline on the Mobility Needs
of the Greater Capital Region and Recommendations to Bridge the Gap
Katreena Chang*, Kenneth Isaiah Ibasco Abante*^, Patricia Mariano*,
John P. Sevilla*, Robert Y. Siy Jr.*, Jedd Carlo F. Ugay*+
* Move As One Coalition Policy Research Team
^ Research Faculty, Department of Interdisciplinary Studies, Ateneo de Manila University;
Fellow and Head of Practice, WeSolve; Coordinator, Citizens’ Budget Tracker
+ Chief Mobility Officer, AltMobility PH
Critical comments welcome via katreena.chang@gmail.com.
The Philippines has a massive public transport shortage, made worse by the COVID-19
pandemic and the decision to tighten public transport supply in 2020. This shortage impeded
efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus and contributed to the country’s worst post-war
recession, as non-home-based workers found it much harder to move and go to work (SWS,
2021). We find that even if the entire rail-heavy Php 2 trillion public transport
infrastructure flagship project pipeline is completed on time over the next decade, the
Greater Capital Region area will still experience a system-wide shortage in public
transport supply, even with conservative demand growth assumptions. We estimate this
using passenger trip survey data and publicly available reports on the passenger ridership of the
flagship projects. In pursuit of a more efficient and sustainable use of public funds, we
recommend a better balance for a better normal: a shift in the country’s infrastructure
pipeline to include more active transport infrastructure promoting walking and cycling, as well as
expanding road-based public transport modes through public utility vehicle gross-cost service
contracting, bus rapid transit investments, and other complementary infrastructure. These
programs would contribute the largest impact to improving public transport supply in the
short-term and the medium-term, require far less investment while enabling equal mobility
capacity, and enhance the network effects of the public transport flagship project pipeline being
built. We recommend that future infrastructure projects be evaluated based on people- and
nature-oriented metrics--how interventions improve the service quality of and commuting
experience in public transport. Such metrics include, but are not limited to, shorter waiting times,
less crowding, faster travel from point A to point B, reduced generalized cost for commuters,
adherence to health protocols, less carbon emissions, improved access for persons with
disability, gender sensitivity, reduced transfers, and safer commutes.
JEL Classification: R41, H61, O18
Key words: public transport, infrastructure, mobility, Philippines, COVID-19
Dataset: bit.ly/MoveAsOneData_shortage
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation:
The Impact of the Infrastructure Flagship Project Pipeline on the Mobility Needs
of the Greater Capital Region and Recommendations to Bridge the Gap
Key Findings 3
Methodology and Limitations 12
Passenger metrics 12
Mobility demand 12
Public transport supply 13
Infrastructure Flagship Project (IFP) costs 14
Active transport infrastructure costs 15
PUV-only lane projections 16
Limitations of the study 17
Data 18
Mobility demand 18
Mobility demand growth 19
IFP cost data 19
IFP ridership data 19
Active Transport 20
Conclusions 21
References 23
Annex A. List of Mass Public Transport Infrastructure Flagship Projects 26
Annex B. List of DPWH Land Transport Infrastructure Flagship Projects 26
Annex C. Demand Growth Scenarios for the Greater Capital Region 28
Annex D. GCR Transport Supply Shortfall Under Different Scenarios 29
Annex E. Calculated O&M Cost estimates for IFPs 30
Annex F. JICA MUCEP 2015 Technical Report Table 4.5 31
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Key Findings
1. For the longest time, the quality of public transport in the Philippines has been
inadequate, as evidenced by overcrowding and long lines in public transport stops and
terminals, increasingly longer travel times, and the lack of access to and interconnection
between various transport modes (longer walking distances to and between
stops/terminals, on walkways with depreciating quality), making it more difficult for
commuters to reach their ultimate destinations (PCIJ, 2021). This shortage was made
worse by the COVID-19 pandemic, when 72% of adults with non-home-based jobs (69%
for Metro Manila) have said going to work has become harder (SWS, 2021). The
Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against COVID-19 (HPAAC) has likewise named
“inadequate and unsafe transport options” as a critical public health issue1. This lack of
access to public transport contributed to the Philippines’ worst post-war recession in
2020--as “many people cannot earn because they [simply have no means to] go to work
or lost their jobs, and this means more Filipinos are going to bed hungry” (NEDA, 2021)2.
2. Until present, national transport agencies have largely measured their success not
by how well they move people, but how well they move cars (Suzara et al, 2021).
Most success indicators focus on vehicle travel time--with a bias towards private vehicle
travel time--with little consideration for the overall quality of public transport service. The
impact of transport projects should instead be measured by how much it reduces the
generalized cost of commuting (factoring in both monetary spend on commuting trips, as
well as the monetized value of time spent on the trip), which includes travel, waiting, and
walking times, as well as the number of mode transfers and onward trips needed to get
from point A to point B. Another metric to consider is the shift away from automobile
dependency, measured through reduction in vehicle kilometers travelled and private
vehicle modal share, which will result in needed long-term impacts on health and the
environment (i.e., emission reduction).
3. The number of road-based public utility vehicle trips has collapsed in Metro
Manila’s major roads as private vehicle trips and travel times surged. From 2012 to
2019, the average daily traffic of public buses and jeepneys in Metro Manila’s major
circumferential and radial roads plummeted by 14% as private car and motorcycle trips
surged by 46% (MMDA, in Suzara et al, 2021). Due to increasing road traffic congestion,
public utility vehicles have been forced to reduce daily round trips made3; meanwhile,
average vehicle travel times increased. In Metro Manila major roads, vehicle travel time
3Interviews by the authors with PUV drivers and operators in Metro Manila (pre-pandemic) revealed that
they could make just about half of the round trips they were previously able to make (e.g. on a
20-kilometer route, the previous standard was 6 round trips per day, but that has gone down to just 3-4
round trips).
2NEDA Pushes For Active Transport Support, Promotes Internal Bike Sharing System (NEDA, 2021)
1Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against COVID-19 (http://hpaac.org.ph/about-us)
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per kilometer has gone from a baseline of 1.83 minutes in 2015 to 2.57 minutes in 2019,
a 40% increase in time taken to travel the same distance (COA, in Suzara et al, 2021).
4. The lack of attention toward improving public transport system quality and
sufficiency means that as the number of public transport trips collapsed, the
travel times for private car users increased: a vicious cycle. Road congestion during
rush hour in Metro Manila, where the majority of vehicular traffic is from private cars,
causes travel times to more than double. In 2019, every 30 minute vehicle trip was
lengthened by 29 minutes in the morning (+97%) and 38 minutes in the evening
(+126%) (TomTom Traffic Index, 2020). It is important to note that this traffic index
measures vehicle driving speeds and fails to account for commuter waiting times--a
critical metric in gauging the sufficiency and efficiency of public transport systems that
continues to be overlooked in transport planning and development in the Philippines.
5. Car-centric policies have made it harder for commuters to get to work. In
November 2020, 36% of Filipinos without home-based jobs in Metro Manila reported that
it is “very much harder” to get to work, “much harder” for 21%, “slightly harder” for 10%,
and unchanged for just 31%. Of these, only 5% used a private car as their most common
means of transport to work (SWS, 2021). These results were despite congestion levels
in Manila reportedly having mostly gone back to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, when there
were no mobility restrictions, by that time period (TomTom Traffic Index). Given that
nearly 70% of the non-home-based workers were finding it harder to get to work, this
indicates that public transport options were taking a far smaller share of the road vehicle
volume, providing further evidence of the ongoing shortage in public transport.
6. Another evidence of the public transport shortage is in road transport inflation
(Suzara et al, 2021). Road transport inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) has
increased by 19% by the end of 20204(PSA, 2021), eroding people’s purchasing power.
The bottom 30% of households (in terms of income) had it much worse as they
experienced a 24% increase in road passenger transport prices within the same period
(PSA, 2021).
4Year-on-year monthly inflation measure, i.e. December 2020 consumer price index (CPI) for passenger
transport by road is compared to December 2019
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Table 1. November 2020 Most Common Means of Going to Work for Adults with
Non-home-based Jobs, by Area, survey conducted by Social Weather Stations5
Means of Going to Work
Share (Total Philippines)
Share (Metro Manila)
Walking (volunteered response)
44%
21%
Motorcycle
24%
20%
Tricycle
14%
14%
Jeepney/Multicab
8%
25%
Bicycle
5%
11%
Bus
3%
14%
Private car
3%
5%
Motorboat
1%
0%
Others (each below 0.5%)
2%
6%
Figure 1. Comparison of Working Day Travel Patterns by Month (2019 and 2020). Metro
Manila restrictions eased by Sept. 2020, but public transport supply remained limited
The TomTom Traffic Index measures average congestion levels by the additional % of time it would take to complete a 30-minute trip
relative to baseline uncongested conditions (determined by analyzing free-flow travel times of all vehicles on the entire road
network). Source: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/manila-traffic/
5Multiple responses are allowed so the total per column may exceed 100%. Specific question used: “Ano
pong uri ng transportasyon ang karaniwan ninyong ginagamit para makarating sa trabaho? (ALLOW
MULTIPLE RESPONSES)”; in English: “What mode of transportation do you commonly/frequently use to
go to work?”
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7. The national government is planning to spend a lot on rail, but very little on
road-based public transport. Out of the Php 2.02 trillion6that the government has
committed to spend on land-based public transport infrastructure flagship projects7
(IFPs) from 2017 to 2025, only Php 49.1 billion (2.4%) is planned for road-based public
transport, and this total is for only five (5) individual projects (NEDA, 2020). The other
Php 1.97 trillion are for rail-based public transport projects.
8. The national government is also planning to spend a lot on road and highway
infrastructure, but very little on expanding road-based public transport supply. As
part of the wider “Build, Build, Build” agenda, there is a further Php 776.2 billion
expected to be spent on road IFPs (i.e., expressways, highways, bridges, and connector
roads)8. The Php 49.1 billion road-based public transport IFPs only account for less than
6% of the total national road transport program.
9. The little we plan to spend on road-based public transport has limited
geographical reach. The Php 49.1 billion road-based public transport IFPs are
concentrated on specific locations: Taguig City (Integrated Terminal Exchange), Quezon
Avenue (Metro Manila BRT Line 1), Cebu City (Cebu BRT), and Davao City (Davao
Public Transport Modernization Program9). Notably, there are no planned infrastructure
flagship projects for active transport infrastructure (e.g., pedestrian walkways, sidewalk
expansion, cycling networks), nor for complementary infrastructure such as public
transport stops, safer crossings/intersections. But recently there have been steps in the
right direction: Php P8.9 billion in funds were programmed for a protected bike lane
network and PUV service contracting under the Bayanihan to Recover as Act and the
2021 General Appropriations Act, but no specific allocations have been made for
accessible, at-grade pedestrian infrastructure.
10. Even if we build the current rail-heavy pipeline on schedule, we will still have a
public transport shortage in the most conservative case. If built on schedule, the 13
public transport IFPs located in the Greater Capital Region (GCR)10, composed of Metro
Manila and the neighboring provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan, are
expected to serve 3 million additional daily trips by 2026. Forecasting a conservative
increase in mobility demand of 1.25% per annum (JICA, 2019) would result in a supply
shortfall of 2.8 million daily trips by 2030 in GCR11. The GCR IFPs costing nearly P2
11 The potential supply shortfall can be as high as 6 million daily trips. See Annex D for annual estimates.
10 Only IFPs with publicly available ridership forecasts are included. See Table 2 for full list.
9The project is for a new modern bus system that includes (i) buses replacing PUJs in the city, (ii)
optimization of bus routes, (iii) bus stops, bus depots, and minor improvement of roads, (iv) traffic
management system, which will prioritize bus transport, (v) introducing performance based contracts with
bus operators, and (vi) social development program for affected people (ADB).
8NEDA list as of August 19, 2020. See Annex B for the full list.
7List as of August 19, 2020. See Annex A for the full list.
6This is the national total, of which Php 1.6 trillion is expected to be spent on projects located in GCR.
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trillion will serve just 10% of the expected mobility demand. That said, this is a big picture
forecast that does not take into account the mobility density on specific roads and areas
and at different times.
11. As such, we need to create a system that measures and monitors public
transportation demand and supply, not just in aggregate but on specific travel
corridors and in a dynamic manner (i.e., real-time monitoring of filled and available
capacity in our public transport systems and/or roads). This can be done with
cost-effective investment in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT)
infrastructure including wider use of an Interoperable Automated Fare Collection System
across transport modes (to record real-time transport data) and a Public Transport
Information Management Center (a data center which collects and analyzes transport
data). These can deliver massive benefits to commuters, transport operators and
transport planners alike, complementing the so-called “hard” IFP infrastructure.
12. We need to reverse the great inequality in our roads. 69% of GCR road users take
public transportation, but are crammed into only 22% of available road space (JICA,
2014). 91%--the vast majority--of daily public transport trips in GCR rely on
road-based public transport (JICA MUCEP, 2015). Only 6% of non-walking trips
involve rail services, and even these trips are generally taken in combination with
onward trips using road-based public transport (JICA MUCEP, 2015). Relatively few
commuters travel around NCR using only rail services.
13. For this reason, a strategy to improve urban public transportation should
incorporate overall network planning. The rail and BRT network that will be built
through the IFPs is not within walking distance to the homes of the majority of the
population. This requires investment in road-based public transport and active transport
infrastructure to develop supplementary networks that connect transport terminals to
commuters’ ultimate origins and destinations, which will therefore maximize the network
effects of rail investments. To illustrate, recent “integration centrality” maps by Poco
(2021) show areas that are accessible for pedestrians in Metro Manila who travel up to
1.2 kilometers. The heat map also highlights areas that are inaccessible to pedestrians.
Spatial analyses like these need to be incorporated in planning for our urban public
transportation network.
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Figure 2. Population Density Map of NCR with Infrastructure Flagship Project public
transport network superimposed
Source of population density map: https://community.apan.org/wg/oekn/m/philippines/217472. IFP network added by authors.
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14. It is worth reviewing and comparing the cost of each transport mode per
person-kilometer, which reveals that bus rapid transit, cycling, and pedestrian
infrastructure are very cost-efficient transport modes. Based on the investment
plans for the public transport infrastructure flagship projects, the cost to build a subway is
Php 5.94 per person kilometer travelled, Php 3.33 for overground railways, and just Php
0.61 for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)12. Even after accounting for operating expenditure over
the expected life of the project, the BRT still comes out cheapest by a great margin-- Php
1.51 (24% of the cost of the subway) compared to Php 6.30 and Php 5.09 for the
subway and overground rail, respectively13. Investing in active transport infrastructure
requires even less spending: a bike lane only costs 8 centavos to build per
person-kilometer travelled14, and a sidewalk less than 1 centavo (1.32% and 0.14% of
the cost to build a subway, respectively).
Figure 3. BRT investment by far provides the most value for money out of the mass
public transport options in the IFPs, while the investment needed to provide quality
active transport (pedestrian and cycling) options is miniscule compared to the planned
investment in the IFPs.
14 Based on the cost of the Metro Manila portion of the Bayanihan 2 bike lanes
13 Operating expenditure estimated from feasibility studies done by JICA (MMSP, NSCR), ADB (NSCR),
Marubeni (LRT 2), World Bank (BRT)
12 Calculated over the total trips taken across the expected project lifetime (30 years for rail, 20 years for
BRT)
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15. Road-based public transport is much faster to build than railways — about three
years or less for BRT, compared to a minimum of five years for overground rail (i.e., rail
systems built at or above ground level, including MRT/LRT) and a minimum of eight
years for a subway15. Properly built and operated, BRT combines the efficiency and
quality of rail with the flexibility and relatively lower cost of buses; it can also be
expanded later on as resources become more available. Given the current supply
shortage, it is in our best interest to bridge the gap as soon as possible, and road-based
public transport is much faster to implement.
16. Active transport infrastructure can be built even faster: the 500+ kilometer network
of Bayanihan 2 bike lanes in Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, and Metro Davao are expected
to be completed in less than a year16. In comparison, the 12.3km Metro Manila BRT Line
1 will not be completed until 2023, and not until 2026 for the ~280km GCR rail network to
be fully completed.
17. The benefits of investing in road-based public transport go beyond easing
mobility: for every peso invested in land transport, there is at least Php 2.77 in
economic returns compared to Php 2.27 for transport equipment (PSA 2012 I-O
tables)17. There are a further 4.4 people employed for every million invested in land
transport--third among all non-agricultural industries in the Philippines.18
18. Enhancing the service quality of the existing public transport systems should not
be overlooked. Investing in PUV-only lanes, road-based public transport infrastructure
(stops, terminals, depots, priority signalling systems, etc.), and a proper gross-cost
service contracting program has the potential to eliminate the deficit in supply by
delivering at least a 100% increase in daily passenger trips19 with well-coordinated, safe,
and efficient public transport services for millions of Filipinos. Further, devoting a larger
share of the government’s infrastructure spending program to ensuring the success of
the Public Utility Vehicle Modernization Program (PUVMP) with a just transition for
transport workers and a just reform for commuters20 will likewise improve the service
quality, and therefore user patronage, of public transport.
20 Just Transition, Just Reform: Move As One Position Paper on the Public Utility Vehicle Modernization
Program (PUVMP) (Move As One, 2021)
19 Calculated along EDSA for PUBs and compared to MMDA 2019 average annual daily traffic records
18 Analysis by Move As One, full computation in the Move As One Data Bank for Public Transportation
17 Analysis by Move As One, full computation in the Move As One Data Bank for Public Transportation
16 DOTr aims to nearly double bike lanes nationwide by year-end (CNN, 2021)
15 Based on the proposed implementation times of the IFPs
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19. In parallel, active transport should be aggressively promoted as a regular and highly
desirable travel mode, especially for shorter trips, because of its significant economic,
environmental and health benefits. Chapman et al (2018) have found that investment in
active transport has a benefit/cost ratio of 11:1-- Php 11 in returns for every Php 1
invested21. Other benefits include boosting local businesses and increasing social
interaction and quality of life within communities and cities.
20. While rail services are an important part of the mass transit mix, focusing public
transportation investment almost exclusively on rail is not an efficient and responsive use
of scarce resources. Road-based public transport and active transport
infrastructure can be built much faster and at far less cost, and will be able to
serve the immediate mobility needs of a greater portion of the population. The
allocation of the capital budget among different transport modes needs to be rebalanced,
with more investment space offered to road-based public transport and active transport.
More emphasis on road-based public transport by the Department of Transportation
(DOTr) can provide stronger employment impact as well as complement the road
network being built by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)22.
Moreover, active transport is the investment that delivers by far the most “bang for the
buck.”
22 From 2010 to 2021, only Php 40 billion of the national budget or around 1% has been allocated to
road-based public transport out of a total of Php 2.8 trillion invested in road-based infrastructure projects.
Almost all (99%) of this budget was allocated to road construction and widening. (Suzara et al, 2021)
21 Considers health, injury reduction, and carbon dioxide emission reduction benefits relative to upfront
and ongoing maintenance costs of active transport infrastructure.
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Methodology and Limitations
Passenger metrics
The metrics used in this study to compare the costs to build infrastructure for different modes of
transport are passenger trips and passenger-kilometers.
Passenger trips are a measure of the number of rides taken in a mode of transport, which does
not take into account the length of the trips taken (e.g. a full 13.8-km trip along LRT Line 2 will
be counted as 1 trip, as will a 1.97-km trip between the Katipunan and Santolan stations).
Passenger-kilometers (km) multiplies the number of passenger trips taken with the average trip
length, providing a better approximation of the service provided by a given mode of transport to
any given passenger. The average trip length is 15.47 km for rail and 25.55 km for buses (JICA
MUCEP, 2015), which we use as an estimate for average BRT trip length.
Mobility demand
Majority of the mass public transport infrastructure flagship projects in the pipeline will serve the
Greater Capital Region (GCR) area, composed of the National Capital Region/Metro Manila and
the neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna. GCR serves as the main
economic hub in the Philippines, with mobility demand not only for its own population, but also a
labor force that makes a daily commute from other surrounding provinces. As of 2014, the total
daily passenger trips taken in the GCR, excluding trips where walking was the primary mode of
transport, is 24.6 million, of which trips taken by public transport were 17.337 million.
Our study presents three (3) scenarios for GCR mobility demand projections and assumes the
ratio of trips taken by public and private transport modes remains constant for all scenarios. The
conservative case assumes that mobility demand will grow by 125% in 18 years (JICA, 2019),
which is equivalent to a 1.25% growth rate per annum (pa). This results in 3.8 million
incremental daily passenger trip demand using public transport by 2030.
The base case assumes that mobility demand will follow the forecast population growth for the
Manila urban area, which is equivalent to 1.60% pa from 2014-2020, 1.81% pa from 2021-2025,
and 2.03% pa from 2026-2030 (United Nations, 2018). This would result in 5.4 million
incremental daily passenger trip demand using public transport by 2030.
The aggressive case takes the trip generation forecast from the Master Plan on High Standard
Highway Network Development (HSHN) (JICA, 2010) for GCR. On top of population growth, the
forecast also accounts for employment attraction in the area. Based on annual growth estimates
of 2.78% pa from 2009-2020 and 1.96% from 2021-2030, resulting mobility demand by 2030 is
7.1 million additional daily passenger trips using public transport.
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Public transport supply
We assume that the 2014 daily public transport passenger trip demand figure of 17.337 million
is equivalent to the mobility supply due to lack of other available data, although long lines in
transport hubs and overcrowding in public utility vehicles has long been a problem in the
Philippine public transport system.
Of the 17.337 million daily passenger trips, 1.485 million are taken by rail (JICA MUCEP, 2015),
served by the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Lines 1 and 2, the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) Line 3 and
Philippine National Railways (PNR). However, this has since fallen to 1.075 million daily
passenger trips as of 2019 due to constant breakdowns and poor maintenance of the existing
rail lines, which means public transport supply has fallen by 410 thousand daily passenger trips.
Meanwhile, 2.352 million trips were taken by bus, 6.763 million by jeepney, and 5.687 million by
tricycle (JICA MUCEP, 2015) (see Annex F for trip composition by mode). The annual average
daily traffic (AADT)23 data collected by the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA)24
show that in 2019, the vehicular traffic from--or trips taken by--buses, jeepneys, and tricycles
have fallen by 21% compared to 2014. To account for this supply drop in our analysis, we
considered a 10.5% reduction in public transport supply from buses, jeepneys, and tricycles,
which is equivalent to 1.553 million daily trips.
We looked at the daily passenger ridership estimates for thirteen (13) mass public transport
IFPs in the GCR that have estimated completion dates from 2021-2026. From the analysis, the
C5 MRT 10 Project and MRT 11 Project have been excluded as they are in very early stages of
development (both projects are public-private partnership proposals) and do not have publicly
available ridership estimates.
The supply forecast to be filled by the IFPs are listed below:
Table 2. Expected completion dates and daily passenger trips served by IFPs in GCR
Public Transport Infrastructure Flagship Project
Expected Completion
Year
Daily Passenger Trips
Expected to be Served
(in thousands)
LRT 2 West Extension
2023
16
LRT 2 East Extension
2021
80
LRT 1 Cavite Extension Project
2022 (partial), 2024
100 (partial), 300
LRT 6 Cavite Line A
2025
200
PNR NSCR North 1
2022 (partial), 2024
47 (partial), 330
24 Calculates vehicular traffic in all Metro Manila circumferential and radial roads
23 AADT is a measure of the mean traffic volume across all days for a year for a given location along a
roadway (US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, 2018)
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PNR NSCR North 2 (MCRP)
2023 (partial), 2024
34 (partial), 150
PNR NSCR South Commuter / PNR Calamba
2026
350
Metro Manila Subway Project Phase 1
2022 (partial), 2025
65 (partial), 370
Fort Bonifacio-Makati Sky Train
2022
80
MRT 3 Rehabilitation Project
2021
300
MRT 4
2025
234
MRT 7
2021
350
Metro Manila BRT Line 1
2023
290
In total, 3 million daily passenger trips will be added to the GCR public transport capacity by
2030 if all the IFPs are built according to schedule.
Infrastructure Flagship Project (IFP) costs
To calculate the per passenger-km cost to build for each IFP, the project cost approved by the
National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA)--an all-in cost that accounts for
construction, development, project management, and financing costs--was divided by the
number of passenger trips expected to be served by an IFP across its lifetime. We estimated
that each transport option will serve the expected daily passenger trip capacity for 350 days per
year, with an expected project life of 30 years for the subway and overground rail projects and
20 years for the BRT. While we acknowledge that these may be shorter than the theoretical
possible operating lives for these public transport options, the cost analysis does not take into
account any major maintenance costs needed to keep the systems running at optimal capacity.
Excluding rehabilitation projects (MRT 3 and PNR South Long Haul/PNR Bicol), the cost to build
the overground rail IFPs in the Philippines is Php 3.33 per passenger-km on average25. In
comparison, the cost to build the Metro Manila Subway Project Phase 1 is Php 5.94 per
passenger-km, while the average cost for the Metro Manila and Cebu BRT systems is Php 0.61
per passenger-km.
To deepen the analysis, we also considered the expected operating and maintenance (O&M)
costs over the expected operating lives of the IFPs. Studies have been conducted on the PNR
North-South Commuter Railway (NSCR) North 1 (JICA, 2018), North 2 (ADB, 2019), and South
Commuter Lines (JICA, 2018), the LRT 2 East and West Extensions (Marubeni, 2010), the
Metro Manila Subway (JICA, 2015), as well as the Metro Manila BRT (World Bank, 2017) and
Cebu BRT systems (World Bank, 2014) which provides estimates for the expected O&M costs
(see Annex E for the O&M cost estimates).
25 Aside from C5 MRT 10 and MRT 11, the LRT 2 West Extension has also been excluded from the cost
analysis due to very low additional daily passenger trips expected to be served (just 16 thousand,
compared to 80 thousand for the LRT 2 East Extension of approximately the same length), resulting in a
very high per passenger-km cost (Php 42.06) relative to the other projects.
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Assuming an annual O&M cost escalation of 2%, as well as a discount rate of 9% to take the
net present value of the expected lifetime O&M costs, we estimate that this will result in the
following cost levels relative to the cost to build:
Table 3. O&M cost estimates as a percentage of cost to build by mass public transport
mode
Mode of Mass Public Transport
O&M cost as % of cost to build
Light Rail Transit / Metro Rail Transit
64.12%
Other overground rail
25.59%
Subway
5.34%
BRT
218.57%
The cost per transport mode is summarized below:
Table 4. Cost to build per passenger-km for different mass public transport modes, with
and without O&M, over expected project life
Cost in Php per passenger-km
Cost to build
Cost to build + O&M
5.94
6.30
3.33
5.09
0.61
1.51
Active transport infrastructure costs
Among the IFPs, there is one project for pedestrians: the EDSA Greenways Project. This was
intended to connect the available rail options (LRT 1, LRT 2 and MRT 3) through the
construction of an elevated walkway along the Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA), which is
the main thoroughfare in Metro Manila, passing through six of its 17 local government units and
connecting three business districts (Makati/Bonifacio Global City, Ortigas, Araneta), with a
length of approximately 23.8 kilometers.
The DOTr estimates that the EDSA Greenways elevated walkway project, with a project cost of
Php 8.512 billion, will be able to serve 1.1 million daily pedestrian trips. With a 20-year design
life for the 5-km project, this would result in a per passenger-km cost to build of Php 0.2226.
However, this figure is inflated compared to the cost to build other active transport
infrastructure--sidewalks for pedestrians and protected bike lanes for cyclists.
26 Assumes each passenger trip will cross the whole 5-km length of the project.
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We estimate that 1.5-meter-wide sidewalks cost Php 7.3 million to build per kilometer27
(NYSDOT, 2012). Assuming a sidewalk is built along EDSA, which has an estimated 2 million
daily pedestrian trips (Orbos, 2020), an average passenger trip length of 3.05 kilometers28
(Althoff, et al., 2017) and a design life of 20 years, the per passenger-km cost is below 1
centavo, or just 3.7% of the cost to build the EDSA Greenways elevated walkway project.
In September 2020, the Bayanihan to Recover As One Act (also known as Bayanihan 2,
officially Republic Act No. 11494) was enacted to provide additional funds to respond to the
COVID-19 pandemic. The law included a budget of Php 814 million to build a 338.53-km
network of protected bike lanes in Metro Manila.
In June 2020, the MMDA counted 100,792 cyclists along nine intersections in EDSA. We
applied a conservative demand increase estimate of 100%29 once the proposed 338.53-km
protected cycling infrastructure network is built, as well as a multiplier of 14 times to account for
the rest of the bike lane network (taken by dividing 338.53 km by the 23.8km length of EDSA).
Assuming that the average cycling trip length is 15.47km (i.e., the average rail trip length, JICA
MUCEP 2015) and a design life of 20 years for the bike lanes, the per passenger-km cost to
build a protected bike lane network is just Php 0.08.
PUV-only lane projections
Another option to augment public transport capacity that does not require a massive cost and
time investment to build is the implementation of PUV-only lanes for public utility jeepneys
(PUJs) and/or public utility buses (PUBs). Along major highways such as EDSA, one lane
normally allotted for mixed use of public and private motorized vehicles will be designated
specifically to public utility vehicles only and built with the proper loading bays (i.e., that a PUV
can move to the side as passengers board/alight to allow for the continuous movement of
vehicles along the lane). If this were to be implemented along EDSA, assuming the following
transport parameters in Table 5:
29 Pucher, Dill and Handy (2010) analyzed the impact of interventions on the levels of bicycling and found
that establishing cycling infrastructure could double the number of total bicycle trips (London, Barcelona,
Amsterdam, Paris, etc) and even quadruple it (Bogota, Berlin).
28 Calculated by dividing the average steps taken per day of 4,008 by 1,312 average steps per km
27 2012 cost of USD 39 per linear foot, adjusted for inflation at 2% per annum; USDPHP=48.6
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Table 5. PUV-only lane forecast parameters
Parameter
Value
Length of EDSA
23.8 km
Average estimated vehicle speed along PUV-only lane
30 kph30
Equivalent full-operating hours of PUVs along EDSA
12 hours
Length of PUB with space allocation between vehicles
30 meters
Per trip estimates (JICA, 2014)
Average passengers per trip (PUB)
35 people
Average km travelled per trip (PUB)
10 km
Then a single two-way PUB-only lane along EDSA can serve 1.9 million passenger trips daily.
AADT data (MMDA, 2019) show that there was an average of 11,313 PUB vehicle trips along
EDSA daily in 2019. Using the same per vehicle estimate parameters in Table 5 above, this is
equivalent to 0.9 million passenger trips served daily. As such, implementing a two-way
PUV-only lane in EDSA dedicated exclusively to PUBs can serve up to 1.0 million additional
passenger trips per day, more than doubling the 2019 supply.
Limitations of the study
There are three potential metrics for comparing the cost to build for transport infrastructure
projects: by the length of the system, by the expected number of passenger trips served, and by
passenger-kilometer. Among the three, while cost to build per passenger-km is the metric that
best captures the actual value provided by the transport infrastructure projects, our study only
uses an estimate of distance travelled based on historical patterns observed, and does not take
into account how the IFPs may shift these travel patterns.
Moreover, our study views the transportation supply shortage from a big picture perspective--we
find that there is no regular data being collected on mobility supply and demand on a
disaggregated basis. Passenger trips in GCR are counted as a whole, as disaggregated trip
data on a per-area or per-road level within the region are scarce or unavailable. As such, while
overall there is a transportation supply shortfall in the GCR, there may well be a capacity
oversupply in some specific roads but together with a greater magnitude of unserved demand in
other areas as well.
The Philippines does not have the requisite systems in place to accurately estimate future
transport demand. The non-measurement of waiting times in public transport services also does
30 A 30-kph speed limit on roads significantly reduces risk of death and injury for people walking (Victoria
Walks, 2021)
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not allow for the creation of an accurate picture on the current transport supply shortage, nor
does up-to-date/real-time data exist on the existing transport supply.
As such, we chose to use the most conservative estimates we had available to estimate mobility
demand and transport supply. JICA’s estimate of effectively 1.25% annual growth in GCR
transport demand is significantly below the United Nations’ population growth estimate of
1.6-2.0% per year. Similarly, we assumed that all the public transport infrastructure flagship
projects in NEDA’s latest list will be built on schedule despite the numerous delays that have
been faced by these projects over the past few years.
Transportation Network Vehicle Services (TNVS) like Uber and Grab only entered the
Philippines in late 2013, and the motorcycle-hailing service Angkas in 2016, and as such were
not as prevalent during the time the baseline mobility figures were collected relative to today.
While TNVS vehicles were estimated to have taken 370,000 to 590,000 trips per day in Metro
Manila in 2017 (Mirandilla and Regidor, 2019), we have excluded this from the analysis as it is
unclear how much of these trips were shifted from private or public transport demand. Notably,
the 2019 study found that TNVS added more to vehicular traffic while “delivering inferior
productivity” relative to other modes of road-based public transportation in terms of
person-kilometers served (i.e., less people moved).
Our study also assumes that all additional passenger trips served by the IFPs will fill shortfalls in
demand, and will not cannibalize trips that are already being served by other existing public
transport modes at present (e.g., PUJs, PUBs, UV Express). All figures for demand served by
the IFPs were taken from statements and presentations made by the DOTr and/or mainstream
news sources.
Finally, the study does not consider possible shifts in mobility patterns due to the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines. We remedy this by taking the most conservative
demand assumptions, and we note that this is a point for further study.
Data
Mobility demand
Macroeconomic mobility demand estimates were sourced from Table 4.5: Trip Composition by
Mode (see Annex F for the full table) in page 4-3 of the MMUTIS Update and Enhancement
Project (MUCEP) Person Trip Survey Technical Report, published in December 2015 by the
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), commissioned by the Philippines’ Department
of Transportation (DOTr). The baseline mobility demand is for residents inside GCR only, and
excludes trips to and from the area.
The Person Trip Survey was completed in three parts: 1) household interview surveys (HIS), to
analyze existing travel behaviors of people and forecast traffic demand, with a sampling rate of
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1% of all barangays (approximately 4 households) within the survey area for a total of 51,188
sample households; 2) a Cordon Line Survey, to determine trips to or from the survey area
made by non-residents and calibrate the distributed traffic volume obtained from the HIS; and 3)
a Screen Line Survey, with the purpose of providing vehicular and passenger traffic information
to calibrate the distributed traffic volume obtained from the HIS. The Cordon Line Survey and
Screen Line Survey were done by conducting roadside origin-destination interviews for transport
trips, traffic counts, and vehicle occupancy surveys with survey periods of 16 or 24 hours.
Adjustments made by JICA for socio-economic factors, resident and non-resident trips along
cordon lines, and actual counted traffic volume along survey lines.
Mobility demand growth
Conservative case estimates for mobility demand growth in the GCR were sourced from Table
6.1.2: Impact of Build-Build-Build Program in page 6-5 of the Follow-up Survey on the Roadmap
for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR) Final Report
(Roadmap 2) published in August 2019 by JICA and commissioned by NEDA.
Baseline case estimates were based on population growth estimates for the Manila Urban
Agglomeration by the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Population
Division’s World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision File 11a: The 30 Largest Urban
Agglomerations Ranked by Population Size at Each Point in Time, 1950-2035.
Aggressive case estimates were based on Table 4.2.3-1: Estimated Generation Trip and Annual
Growth Rate in page 4-40 of JICA’s Preparatory Survey for Expressway Projects in Mega
Manila Region Final Report published on November 2012, which was based on JICA’s own
2010 Master Plan on High Standard Highway Network Development (HSHN).
A comparison table for the different demand growth scenarios can be found in Annex C.
IFP cost data
The costs for the IFPs were analyzed from NEDA’s latest revised list of public transport
infrastructure flagship projects. See Annex A for the full list.
IFP ridership data
Where available, the ridership data for the IFPs were sourced from the DOTr. Below is a full list
of data sources for projected ridership:
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Table 6. Sources for estimated ridership forecasts for IFPs in the GCR
Infrastructure Flagship Project
Source
PNR NSCR North 1
DOTr, 2021
PNR NSCR North 2
DOTr, 2021
PNR NSCR South Commuter
DOTr, 2021
LRT 2 West Extension
GMA News
LRT 6 Cavite Line A
2015 estimate
Metro Manila Subway Project Phase 1
Philippine Daily Inquirer
LRT 1 Cavite Extension Project
Philippine News Agency
MRT 3 Rehabilitation project
Manila Times
MRT 4
Philippine Star
LRT 2 East Extension
Business World
MRT 7
DOTr, 2021
Fort Bonifacio-Makati Sky Train
Manila Standard
Metro Manila BRT Line 1
Philippine Infrastructure Transparency Portal
Active Transport
Additional cycling demand growth due to completed construction of protected bike lane
infrastructure was estimated from an international review on infrastructure, programs, and
policies to increase cycling by Pucher, Dill and Handy (2010) that assessed existing research on
the effects of various interventions on levels of bicycling.
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Conclusions
It is evident that the Philippines is already facing a massive transport shortage, as seen from
long wait times and overcrowding in public utility vehicles and transit stops--further exacerbated
by the poor mobility response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study makes it clear that the
shortage will continue over the next 10 years and beyond, even if all of the Php 2-trillion worth of
public transport infrastructure flagship projects in the NEDA list are built on schedule, with an
estimated number of unserved daily passenger trips of at least 2.8 million and up to 6.0 million
by 2030 in the Greater Capital Region.
We emphasize the urgent need for developing an accurate system for forecasting transport
supply and demand. The most effective way to do this would be a real-time, dynamic system,
which can be done with investment in Information and Communications Technology
systems--including a Public Transport Information Management Center and Interoperable
Automated Fare Collection System--across all modes of public transport. This will enable our
national and local transport agencies to be better-equipped to manage deficiencies in public
transport.
We find that road-based public transport is only 2.4% of the 2-trillion public transport IFP budget,
despite being significantly cheaper (Php 0.61 per passenger-km for BRT, compared to Php 5.94
and Php 3.33 for subway and overground rail, respectively) and faster to build (about three
years or less for BRT and high quality bus systems, compared to a minimum of five years for
overground rail and a minimum of eight years for a subway). A larger share of public resources
should also be dedicated to cost-efficient complementary road-based infrastructure projects with
short construction time frames to supplement the capacity and service quality of existing
road-based public transport systems, including the construction of PUV-only lanes, which has
the potential to more than double public transport capacity if implemented along major
thoroughfares, as well as more spacious and accessible PUV/transit stops31.
Finally, the massive gap in public transport capacity can be augmented even without significant
capital outlays: we find that proper pedestrian walkways and protected bike lanes--infrastructure
which support active mobility--both cost significantly less to build at less than Php 1 centavo and
Php 8 centavos per user-kilometer, respectively, and can also be built within a much quicker
timeframe. Similarly, bridges built for pedestrians and cyclists are at least 7 times cheaper than
vehicle bridges, measured per kilometer of two-way lanes32. Evidently providing better value for
money, construction of active transport infrastructure should be prioritized and built alongside
32 The 2 way x 2 lane, 680m, Php 3.39 billion Binondo-Intramuros Bridge (PNA, 2021) costs Php 2.49
billion per km of two-way lane, whereas the 2 way x 1 lane, 72m, EUR 0.33 million (real, 2012) or Php
23.52 million (inflated at 2.5% pa to 2020 pesos, EURPHP=58.5) Werkdonken Bike Bridge in the
Netherlands (ipv Delft, 2015) costs just Php 0.33 billion per km of two-way lane.
31 Move As One (2021) estimates the cost at Php 2.5 million per modular PUV stop and Php 5 million per
linear kilometer of PUV-only lanes (covering both sides of the road).
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road construction, rehabilitation, and widening projects, especially according to the DPWH’s
Special Provision No. 23 in the 2021 General Appropriations Act:
"All projects pertaining to the construction, preventive maintenance, rehabilitation,
reconstruction, upgrading, off-carriageway improvement, widening and/or paving of
primary, secondary, tertiary, bypass and diversion roads, and the construction, widening,
or replacement of bridges, shall be so designed and implemented as to include
protected lanes for pedestrians, and bicycles/light mobility vehicles [...] Pedestrian
crossings shall by default be at-grade for the inclusion of persons with disability, senior
citizens, pregnant women, children with strollers, tourists with luggage, and parents with
children, consistent with public health and safety regulations."
We recommend a re-balancing in the country’s infrastructure pipeline through greater
investment in active transport infrastructure that promote walking and cycling, and a massive
expansion in road-based public transport modes through public utility vehicle service
contracting, bus rapid transit programs, safer and pedestrian-friendly transit stops, and other
complementary infrastructure: these programs give the biggest impact to improving both
transport supply and commuting experience in the short-term and the medium-term.
We recommend a broader shift away from prioritizing vehicle speeds and travel times--the
conventional car-centric thinking of measuring transport quality--to more robust people- and
nature-centered metrics that consider the commuter experience of society as a whole. Future
infrastructure projects should be evaluated based on how they help fill this massive transport
shortage and improve the public transport service quality. Such metrics include, but are not
limited to, shorter waiting times, less crowding, faster travel from point A to point B, reduced
generalized cost for commuters, adherence to health protocols, less carbon emissions,
improved access for persons with disability, gender sensitivity, reduced transfers, and safer
commutes.
The Philippines cannot merely rely on “Build, Build, Build”-ing its way out of the public transport
supply shortage, as car-centric road infrastructure is becoming less and less effective, less
cost-efficient, and much less conducive to reducing emissions as opposed to sustainable
mobility solutions. Transport planning and development in the Philippines needs significant
rebalancing towards inclusive and sustainable mobility so that our cities can become more safe,
livable, sustainable, and accessible for people from all walks of life.
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Annex A. List of Mass Public Transport Infrastructure Flagship Projects
Sourced from NEDA unless otherwise stated
Project
Classification
Cost to
build
Length33
Funding
source
Expected
completion34
Estimated
Capacity35
based on NEDA revised list of IFPs as
of August 19, 2020
Road, Rail
in Php mn
in km
GAA, ODA,
PPP
Year
in passenger trips
per day
Unified Grand Central Station
Rail
2,783
GAA
National Interoperable Automatic Fare
Collection System Project
Road/Rail
4,723
ODA
EDSA Greenways
Rail
8,512
5.0
ODA
1,100 (pedestrians)
LRT 2 West Extension
Rail
10,120
3.0
GAA
2023
16
LRT 2 East Extension
Rail
9,759
4.0
ODA
2021
80
LRT 1 Cavite Extension Project
Rail
64,915
11.7
ODA/PPP
2022 (partial),
2024
100 (partial), 300
LRT 6 Cavite Line A
Rail
50,380
23.5
PPP
2025
200
PNR NSCR North 1
Rail
149,130
38.0
ODA
2022 (partial),
2024
47 (partial), 330
PNR NSCR North 2 (MCRP)
Rail
283,815
51.4
ODA
2023 (partial),
2024
34 (partial), 150
PNR NSCR South Commuter / PNR
Calamba
Rail
344,606
58.6
ODA
2026
350
Metro Manila Subway Project Phase 1
Rail
356,974
35.0
ODA
2022 (partial),
2025
65 (partial), 370
Fort Bonifacio-Makati Sky Train
Rail
3,520
1.9
PPP
2022
80
MRT 3 Rehabilitation Project
Rail
21,966
16.9
ODA
2021
300
MRT 4
Rail
49,841
15.6
ODA
2025
234
MRT 7
Rail
75,000
22.8
PPP
2021
350
C5 MRT 10 Project
Rail
81,470
22.5
PPP
MRT 11
Rail
71,110
18.0
PPP
PNR NSRP South Long Haul / PNR
Bicol
Rail
175,318
581.0
ODA
2022 (partial),
2025
100
Subic Clark Railway
Rail
50,031
71.0
ODA
Cebu Monorail System
Rail
78,890
27.0
PPP
2023
540
Mindanao Rail Project Phase 1
Rail
81,686
102.0
ODA
2022
122
Taguig Integrated Terminal Exchange
Road
4,000
PPP
Metro Manila BRT Line 1
Road
5,463
12.3
ODA
2023
290
Cebu BRT
Road
16,309
40.0
ODA
2022
60
Davao Public Transport Modernization
Project
Road
18,600
137.0
ODA
35 Gathered from various sources
34 Gathered from various sources
33 Gathered from various sources
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
Annex B. List of DPWH Land Transport Infrastructure Flagship Projects
Source: NEDA
Project
Location
Cost to build
(in Php mn)
Funding
source
C5 Southlink Expressway Project
NCR
12,645
PPP
Cagayan de Oro Coastal Road
Mindanao
2,842
GAA
Metro Manila Skyway Stage 3
NCR
44,860
PPP
Arterial Road ByPass Project Phase III (Plaridel Bypass)
Luzon
5,261
ODA
Metro Manila Logistics Network: BGC-Ortigas Center Link Road Project
NCR
5,720
GAA
Surallah-T'Boli-San Jose Road, South Cotabato
Mindanao
3,473
GAA
Sindangan-Bayog-Lakewood Road, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga del Norte
Mindanao
4,153
GAA
Metro Manila Logistics Network: China Grant Bridges
NCR
5,947
ODA
Boracay Circumferential Road
Visayas
1,660
GAA
Samar Pacific Coastal Road Project
Visayas
1,126
ODA
Davao City Coastal Road Project, including Bucana Bridge
Mindanao
28,265
GAA/ODA
Bacolod-Negros Occidental Economic Highway
Visayas
7,339
GAA
Southern Luzon Expressway Toll Road 4
Luzon
13,100
PPP
Metro Cebu Expressway Project
Visayas
26,625
GAA/PPP
Camarines Sur High-Speed Highway Project
Luzon
9,235
GAA
Pasacao-Bataan Tourism Coastal Highway
Luzon
14,972
GAA
NLEX-SLEX Connector Road
NCR
23,302
PPP
Southeast Metro Manila Expressway Project
NCR
45,290
PPP
Improving Growth Corridors in Mindanao Road Sector Project
Mindanao
25,257
ODA
Panglao-Tagbilaran City Offshore Connector Bridge
Visayas
4,400
ODA
Panguil Bay Bridge
Mindanao
7,375
ODA
Panay-Guimaras Negros Bridge Phase 1
Visayas
65,701
ODA
Cebu-Mactan Bridge and Coastal Road Construction Project
Visayas
76,413
ODA
Davao City Bypass Construction Project
Mindanao
46,805
ODA
Samal Island-Davao City Connector Bridge
Mindanao
23,040
ODA
Metro Manila Logistics Network: Pasig River and Manggahan Floodway Bridges
NCR
12,801
ODA
Road Network Development Project in Conflict Affected Areas in Mindanao
Mindanao
14,302
ODA
Metro Manila Logistics Network: Pasig River and Manggahan Floodway Bridges
Construction Project (Marikina River)
NCR
9,163
ODA
Quezon-Bicol Expressway
Luzon
87,296
PPP
Cavite-Tagaytay-Batangas Expressway Project
Luzon
25,240
PPP
TPLEX Extension Project
Luzon
23,947
PPP
Iconic Bridge Projects for Socio Economic Development
Luzon
5,963
ODA
Davao City Expressway
Mindanao
80,651
ODA
NLEX Harbor Link Extension to Anda Circle
NCR
12,000
PPP
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
Annex C. Demand Growth Scenarios for the Greater Capital Region
Calculated from raw source data
Source
Basis
Period Covered
Annual Average
Growth Rate (AAGR)
JICA HSHN (2010)
Population
2010-2020
2.59%
JICA HSHN (2010)
Population
2021-2030
1.80%
JICA HSHN (2010)
Trip Generation
2009-2020
2.78%
JICA HSHN (2010)
Trip Generation
2021-2030
1.96%
United Nations (2018)
Population
2011-2015
1.59%
United Nations (2018)
Population
2016-2020
1.60%
United Nations (2018)
Population
2021-2025
1.81%
United Nations (2018)
Population
2026-2030
2.03%
JICA Roadmap 2 (2019)
Transport Demand
2018-2035
1.25%
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
Annex D. GCR Transport Supply Shortfall Under Different Scenarios
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
Annex E. Calculated O&M Cost estimates for IFPs
In Php million per annum (expressed in 2020 pesos)
Project
Annual O&M Cost
(includes major maintenance costs)
LRT 2 West Extension
462
LRT 2 East Extension
773
Metro Manila Subway Project Phase 1
1,856
PNR NSCR North 1
5,145
PNR NSCR North 2 (MCRP)
6,496
PNR NSCR South Commuter
7,266
Metro Manila BRT Line 1
2,300
Cebu BRT
943
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The Systemic Shortage in Philippine Public Transportation
K. Chang, K.I.I. Abante, P. Mariano, J.P. Sevilla, R.Y. Jr. Siy, J.C. Ugay, This Version: 26 May 2021.
Annex F. JICA MUCEP 2015 Technical Report Table 4.5
Daily Trip Composition by Mode in the Greater Capital Region in 2014
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... Research conducted by the Move As One Coalition in 2021 shows that public transport supply has long been falling short of its demand from commuters. This shortage is the root of a vicious cycle wherein inadequate public transport supply leads to a growing surge in travel times for private motor vehicle users (Chang, Abante, Mariano, et al, 2021). In fact, Metro Manila ranked as the world's most traffic metropolitan area in 2023, with a 12% increase in travel time during rush hour compared to 2022 (TomTom Traffic Index, 2023). ...
... On February 28, 2024, the MMDA approved a resolution that prohibits the use of e-vehicles on major thoroughfares, restricting the mobility of users of e-bikes, e-trikes, pedicabs, pushcarts, and kuligligs.7 In an interview on DZBB Super Radyo on April 22, 2024, Acting MMDA Chairman Artes announced the agency's proposal to completely remove bicycles from the major thoroughfare due to its 'underutilization'. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Philippine transportation system is characterized by a systemic shortage, with the capital city Manila having among the world’s worst traffic congestion, transport quality, and among the least walkable cities. Nationwide, commuting has become harder or very much harder for a majority of commuters in the pandemic; a third say commutes have gotten worse recently. In our coalition’s previous policy and systems papers, we argued that this deterioration of our urban transport systems is caused by a system of car-centric public budgeting (Suzara, Abante, et al, 2021) and car-centric success metrics among agencies (Chang, Benito, Abante, Bendaña, 2022). We investigate in this paper another root cause: a fragmented and car-centric land transport governance structure. This paper aims to explore underlying issues in Philippine land transport governance that exist at the institutional level that contribute to the country’s transport woes. Through a review of local and international transport governance policies and practices, and consultations with both government and civil society representatives within the transport sector, this paper aims to come up with solutions for transport governance issues faced by the government across the national and local levels. The paper discusses the following issues in Philippine transport governance: 1. Poor institutionalization of people-oriented transport policies and programs The government has been making steps towards people-centered land transport over recent years. However, they have often been as results of ad hoc programs and projects, and not as results of long term planning and policies tied to formal legislation or long term government plans. This means that otherwise promising transport programs have unpredictable funding allocations and their ad hoc program offices—which are not formally part of their department—do not have permanent personnel. Inconsistent prioritization at both national and local government levels often means that newer people-centered transport policies, which deviate from traditional car-centric development practice, are not widely implemented throughout all regions of the country. 2. Inconsistent transport policy and project development and implementation Both public and active transport programs tend to be developed on an ad hoc basis, with key performance indicators not necessarily aligning with overall transport outcomes of the Department of Transportation (DOTr) or of national policies, especially since there are no established standard metrics in place to measure the compliance of program outcomes with mandates and policy goals. Local Government Unit (LGU) involvement in transport development is unclear, and as such, there is inconsistent capacity across LGUs to undertake transport functions beyond those mandated in the Local Government Code. Additionally, nationwide adoption of active transport policies is at its early stages. Many LGUs support the implementation of projects consistent with national active transport policies, but there are LGUs that hesitate or resist active transport projects, even with the availability of funding and support from the national government. This inconsistency in local practice is further amplified when LGUs create and enact local transport policies but have neighboring LGUs that do not have similar local policies. 3. Fragmented coordination between government agencies Public transport planning and development remains highly centralized through the leadership of DOTr and the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), with LGUs spearheading local public transport planning. LGUs also do not have other mandated tasks with regard to public transport operations except for smaller scale tricycle transport and traffic enforcement. This means that improvements to the public transport system beyond the route planning level are expected by LGUs to be undertaken by the national government, even if DOTr or LTFRB does not have the complete capacity to do so at a national level. Accountability in public transport is unclear especially for civil society and the general public, which is further emphasized by the lack of performance monitoring and evaluation mechanisms which inform the government and the public of how the public transport system is being evaluated and improved. In active transport infrastructure development, conflicts exist between DOTr, the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), and LGUs with disjointed bike lane planning and implementation across the three institutions. While DPWH is DOTr’s primary construction arm in implementing road transport infrastructure projects, it overlaps with LGUs, and in Metro Manila, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), which are also capable of transport infrastructure development. In practice, DOTr—which leads active transport development through its Active Transport Project Office—coordinates with both DPWH and LGUs to implement projects. The requirement to perform multiple stages of coordination and approval with DPWH and LGUs often significantly delays project implementation. The lack of coordination among agencies to harmonize project planning and implementation often results in project outcomes deviating or violating overarching national transport policies, such as poor bike lane design implementation or downgrading of protected bike lanes. 4. Recommendations The paper proposes the following recommendations that redesign and reform Philippine transport governance and institutions with considerations in both the ideal potential political constraints of each option: Option A. Government rationalizes existing national transport institutions and empowers local government units for LGU-level transport governance. This option does not require the passage of a new legislation and works within the country’s current political framework. Here, the President issues an Executive Order to rationalize and delineate the functions of transport agencies, support the creation of Local Transport and Mobility Offices (LTMOs) within local government units, and shift performance and success metrics of agencies to people- and nature-centered metrics as detailed in this paper’s Appendix. This also urges Congress to pass a special provision for a Local Transport Capacity Support Fund under the existing Local Government Support Fund to empower local government units and their LTMOs to have the capacity to plan, operate, and manage local public transport. Lastly, in this option, the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) and the DOTr shall incentivize the said LTMOs through the integration of mobility metrics in the Seal of Good Local Governance (SGLG) Awards and the development of a certification and accreditation program for local mobility and transport officers. Option B. Unifying transport institutions and establishing new institutions, offices, and functions to fill in the gaps in governance from current legal and political frameworks. This option challenges the current legal and political frameworks in the country to bridge the gaps among our transport institutions. Here, the Congress passes new legislation that redesigns Philippine land transportation governance by consolidating national transport-related agencies under one major institution. Major changes here include the merging of DOTr and DPWH’s transport infrastructure development capacity, the reorganization of LTO and LTFRB through transferring their functions to DOTr under a new Land Transportation Sector (LTS), and the establishment of provincial transport authorities (PTA) to strengthen LTMOs and LGUs in managing transport operations within their cities and municipalities. This option also establishes different people-oriented policy and development offices under the Department of Transportation to ensure that the policies, programs, and infrastructure of the department focus on meeting the needs of people rather than on the movement of vehicles. Some of these offices include: ● Transport Workers Welfare Office, ● (Public Transport) Stop and Stations Planning and Development Office, ● Pedestrian Mobility Office, ● Cycling and Active Mobility Office, ● Inclusive Mobility & Accessibility Office, ● Transportation Information and Wayfinding Office, and ● Road Safety Office The functions of these are discussed in detail in the Recommendations section of this paper. Lastly, this option also creates a funded and dedicated Transport Institute towards people-oriented metrics to standardize and harmonize transport data collection and processing across bureaucracy, establish information systems, and conduct evidence-based research on the collected data to ensure that transport and mobility policies are based on relevant and timely data. Although different in approach, both options to redesign Philippine transport institutions attempt to resolve transport governance issues by rationalizing mandates across agencies, bridging the gaps and conflicts across government departments and local government units, and ensuring that, no matter the structure, our transport institutions are better equipped to deliver people-oriented transport programs and policies at both local and national levels.
Article
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The study aimed to assess Transportation Network Vehicle Services (TNVS) by gathering data from the drivers' perspective. The productivity, impact on traffic, supply, and profitability of TNVS in Metro Manila were evaluated. All data were gathered through online surveys. The supply was analyzed by plotting the drivers' working hours schedule into an hourly count of online TNVS units. The profitability of full-time drivers in TNVS was determined by breakeven analysis. The study found out that there are 36,000 vehicles operating from 8AM to 9PM during weekdays and they generate 370,000 to 590,000 trips per day in Metro Manila. It was found that TNVS have greater impact in traffic flow compared to other modes of transportation while delivering inferior productivity. The study also found that full-time driver-operators have very high risks of financial losses, and they have lower than minimum wage income when depreciation costs and maintenance costs are considered.
Article
Full-text available
Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment.
Article
Full-text available
To assess existing research on the effects of various interventions on levels of bicycling. Interventions include infrastructure (e.g., bike lanes and parking), integration with public transport, education and marketing programs, bicycle access programs, and legal issues. A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and non-reviewed research identified 139 studies. Study methodologies varied considerably in type and quality, with few meeting rigorous standards. Secondary data were gathered for 14 case study cities that adopted multiple interventions. Many studies show positive associations between specific interventions and levels of bicycling. The 14 case studies show that almost all cities adopting comprehensive packages of interventions experienced large increases in the number of bicycle trips and share of people bicycling. Most of the evidence examined in this review supports the crucial role of public policy in encouraging bicycling. Substantial increases in bicycling require an integrated package of many different, complementary interventions, including infrastructure provision and pro-bicycle programs, supportive land use planning, and restrictions on car use.
Malolos-Clark Railway Project: Economic and Financial Analysis
  • Asian Development Bank
Asian Development Bank (2019). Malolos-Clark Railway Project: Economic and Financial Analysis.
DOTr Railways Sector Virtual Presser
Commission on Audit. Annual Audit Reports, Metro Manila Development Authority. Department of Transportation (2021). DOTr Railways Sector Virtual Presser. https://www.facebook.com/130406490431829/videos/1406460353030127
Preparatory Survey for Expressway Projects in Mega Manila Region
Japan International Cooperation Agency (2012). Preparatory Survey for Expressway Projects in Mega Manila Region, Final Report.
Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas (Region III & Region IV-A)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (2014). Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas (Region III & Region IV-A), Final Report.
Feasibility Study on the North South Railway Project -South Line (Commuter) (North-South Commuter Railway Extension Project) in the Republic of the Philippines
Japan International Cooperation Agency (2018). Feasibility Study on the North South Railway Project -South Line (Commuter) (North-South Commuter Railway Extension Project) in the Republic of the Philippines, Draft Final Report (Solis-Calamba Section).
Follow-up Survey on the Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (2019). Follow-up Survey on the Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR), Final Report.
Terminal: The constant agony of commuting amid the pandemic--a photo essay
  • Larry Piojo
  • Monserate
Piojo, Larry Monserate (2021). "Terminal: The constant agony of commuting amid the pandemic--a photo essay". Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism. https://pcij.org/article/5819/terminal