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The Rebound Effect for Car Transport
Abstract
Enforcing fuel efficiency standards for new cars are one of the most widespread policies used to reduce the transport sector's energy consumption and the associated negative external effects. The direct rebound effect reduces the net benefits of fuel efficiency improvements. Better fuel efficiency reduces the per kilometer cost of car use, raising the demand for driving, so that some of the energy savings that would have been realized with unchanged behavior are foregone. The effectiveness of fuel efficiency policies is critically depends on the magnitude of the rebound effect. Empirical estimates for the rebound effect differ substantially between studies, depending on the country, on the underlying assumptions made, on the type of data used, and on the econometric techniques applied. The most reliable empirical estimates suggest an average rebound effect of some 10%–20%.
... There is a diversity in estimating the energy rebound analysis due to definition, data, empirical model, and methodologies adopted for energy rebound effect (Dimitropoulos et al. 2018). In earliest empirical attempts, aggregate analysis level of energy rebound was the major objective of the researchers (Hymel et al. 2010;Matos and Silva 2011;Wang et al. 2012b;Wang and Lu 2014), but later on, paradigm shifted towards evaluating the energy rebound effect at disaggregate level (rebound of freight transport, rebound of four wheels, two wheels, etc., for instance) (De Borger et al. 2021;Jamasb and Llorca 2021). ...
According to Jevon’s paradox, energy efficiency leads to more energy consumption instead of low. So, calculating the size of energy rebound effect is need of the time to devise sustainable environmental and energy policies. This paper aims to analyze the impact of energy efficiency on energy consumption of transport sector in Pakistan by using time series data from 1980 to 2018. This incremental energy consumption channelizes through intensity and output effects. The study uses both Cobb–Douglas (C-D) and constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregate production functions to find the magnitudes of energy rebound effect. As the analysis of energy rebound effect is sensitive to the selection of data, model, and methodology. C-D production function deals with energy rebound effect, while CES provides extra information in the form of energy intensity and output effects along with energy rebound effect. The C-D function is estimated with linear estimation technique, while the CES function is estimated through nonlinear optimization method. The results indicate relatively low magnitudes of energy rebound effect in case of C-D function, e.g., 2% in the short run and about 36% in the long run while about 70% energy rebound, 63% energy intensity, and 7% output effect in the transport sector of Pakistan in the long run by using CES function. As anticipated, energy efficiency is less effective in terms of energy savings in transport sector due to energy rebound effect. Therefore, policy makers should incorporate energy rebound effect to achieve sustainable environmental goals along with economic growth path.
... In the first group of rebound effects which could potentially impact the results of the study, a first example can be connected to an efficiency-related/velocity-related rebound effect, whereby more efficient public transport modes such as high-speed trains might actually lead to greater travel demand (Spielmann 2008). Such an efficiency-rebound effect could potentially be seen economically as well, where, for example, as fuel efficiency improves and the cost per kilometre of driving decreases, the greater driving demand may be, leading to increased consumption (De Borger et al. 2021). Both such effects could lead to misrepresentation in the temporal models, where the rebound effects caused by technological and efficiency improvements could lead to greater consumption than expected based on current trends. ...
Globally, electric vehicles (EVs) are being touted by countries and international organizations as a key transition technology to decarbonize the road transport sector. Yet, other researchers have suggested that EVs may not be a silver bullet solution, and public debates frequently question the embedded environmental impacts of EV’s battery packs, electricity source, and potential to add to peak load, thus challenging grid systems and potentially requiring greater electrical generation capacity. EVs can be considered a technological solution to decarbonizing the urban transport sector, and studies have pointed out the need to consider both behavioural (demand-side) and technological approaches.
This thesis attempts to address these challenging questions regarding EV integration through a multi-layered approach in which EVs are assessed at a product and urban level in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and electricity grid peak load impacts. Lastly, the thesis aims to characterize an intergenerationally ‘safe and just’ urban mobility system to contextualize the discussion surrounding EVs within a global sustainability framework, allowing for interpretation of what development pathways may provide the best results in terms of sustainability.
Intending to expand the conversation surrounding EVs, the results of the thesis suggest that a large-scale integration of EVs without car fleet reductions and other Avoid-Shift-Improve strategies may not be sufficient for achieving this intergenerational ‘safe and just’ sustainability. Rather than taking an EV-centric technological approach, it is suggested that accessibility and behavioural approaches should be equally considered, with the approach taken relevant to the context of the urban area in question when attempting to decarbonize a region’s road transport sector. Thus, rather than seeing EVs as a silver bullet, this research suggests that they should seen as a single potential solution within a suite of solutions that should be used in the right context (i.e. low carbon electrical grid intensity and situations where the accessibility, travel distance, and public/active transport modes cannot provide sufficient mobility provisioning). It is the aim of this thesis that the results of this work can be used to inform policy makers and urban planners of the value of taking balanced supply- and demand-side solution approaches relevant to the local context and help them develop more sectorally-focused policies tied to sectorally characterized ‘safe and just’ state to help guide the urban mobility sector towards intergenerational sustainability.
Despite its importance, the understanding of the behavioural mechanisms underlying rebound effects triggered by sustainable design is still limited. Through a systematic literature review, this study analyses and discusses 18 behavioural mechanisms. The key gaps of behavioural research on rebound effects are (1) limited in-depth analysis of different mechanisms (2); lack of clearly defined concepts; and (3) neglect of various research topics. To bring the behavioural understanding of rebound effects and sustainable design to a higher level, four key steps for future research are suggested.
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