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Climate change and world population
Abstract
Climate change is unlikely to impact the size and distribution of populations markedly unless system collapse causes mortalities on an unprecedented scale. Population growth, however, will greatly exacerbate the impacts of climate change on communities in high-fertility countries, and particularly those located in the humid tropics where heat stress will increase, and in coastal lowlands exposed to sea-level rise, storm surge, and flooding. For these communities, population growth itself is a greater threat to security and economic development than is climate change. Although most future population growth will occur in poor countries with low emissions per person, the measures needed to provide and promote family planning yield very cost-effective emissions reductions. By lowering population growth, the pressure for land clearing is also reduced, thus helping to preserve and expand forests. However, currently, international support for family planning activities is far below what is needed to meet women's needs and to avoid population levels that preclude successful climate change mitigation. The global population is still growing by around 80 million people per year, roughly the same pace at which it has grown for the past 50 years. From the 1960s to the 1990s, voluntary family planning programs drove rapid fertility decline in many high-fertility countries. Over the past 25 years, myths have been propagated that deter investments in family planning and cultivate the political will to increase, rather than decrease, population growth. The climate change discourse should embrace the need to end population growth through the voluntary limitation of births and support greater investment in rights-based family planning programs.
... Some notable commentators have proved the exception. [1][2][3] In essence, the concern they raise is that growth of global population-projected to rise from around 6.8 billion people today to 9.2 billion by 2050 4-will inevitably lead to a significant increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This has led to calls for universal access to voluntary family planning services to be included as one component of the range of policy responses to climate change. ...
The links between rapid population growth and concerns regarding climate change have received little attention. Some commentators have argued that slowing population growth is necessary to reduce further rises in carbon emissions. Others have objected that this would give rise to dehumanizing 'population control' programmes in developing countries. Yet the perspective of the developing countries that will be worst affected by climate change has been almost completely ignored by the scientific literature. This deficit is addressed by this paper, which analyses the first 40 National Adaptation Programmes of Action reports submitted by governments of least-developed countries to the Global Environment Facility for funding. Of these documents, 93% identified at least one of three ways in which demographic trends interact with the effects of climate change: (i) faster degradation of the sources of natural resources; (ii) increased demand for scarce resources; and (iii) heightened human vulnerability to extreme weather events. These findings suggest that voluntary access to family planning services should be made more available to poor communities in least-developed countries. We stress the distinction between this approach, which prioritizes the welfare of poor communities affected by climate change, and the argument that population growth should be slowed to limit increases in global carbon emissions. The paper concludes by calling for increased support for rights-based family planning services, including those integrated with HIV/AIDS services, as an important complementary measure to climate change adaptation programmes in developing countries.
Purpose: The paper explores how livestock reveals the warming climatic variations particularly in farming and poultry sub-sectors of agriculture. The rising average temperature of the region has been a challenge during the last two decades which has created many complications and health problems in animals as stress, low reproduction, its consequence as draught, adverse effects on milk and meat production. More consumption of water increases the cost of livestock products. It has altered the temperature of the sea and rivers, emerges the negative effects on the species and creatures of water. Methodology: To conduct the empirical study on this economic issue the data has been assumed from 1980 to 2014 due to constraints of statistics. Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag model to cointegration (ARDL) was applied on the time series data and the other econometric tests as Error Correction Mechanism, Cumulative sum of Recursive Residual CUSUM and CUSUM sum of Square Test, Bound Test and Diagnostic tests were operated to conclude the results of the research study. Main findings: The finding of the study is that CO2emission from electricity, gases fuel consumption, and urban population growth raised the average temperature of the region which is discouraging the livestock. Production and increasing the costs of livestock output. Application of the study: The study is the most appropriate and applicable for this subcontinent especially for Pakistan. Originality and novelty of the study: The research study contributes to the agricultural economics literature with advanced information. It suggests the government utilize the planet Badar-1 climatic information and more advanced technology about temperature to formulate comprehensive policies to combat the climatic and environmental changes and more resources are allocated so that international standard of production of livestock can be achieved.
Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.
Martin Luther succinctly summarized his theology in sola statements, such as sola scriptura, viewing the Bible (scriptura) as the only valid source of information about God rather than what he viewed as the extraneous, corrupting church doctrine of the time. As a secular side effect of this focus on individual reading skills, the Protestant territories were the first to acquire high literacy rates, which subsequently fostered health, economic growth, and good governance. Here I argue that a similar priority focus on empowerment of all segments of all populations through education and health (sola schola et sanitate) is needed today for sustainable development. According to decades of research, education and health are essential prerequisites for ending poverty and hunger, for improving institutions and participation in society, for voluntary fertility declines and ending world population growth, for changing behavior and adoption of new and clean technologies, and for enhancing adaptive capacity to already unavoidable climate change. This approach avoids paternalistic imposition of development policies by focusing external aid on enabling people to help themselves, their families, and communities. Prioritizing education and health also helps move more industrialized, aging societies from a focus on material consumption to one on quality of life. Sola schola et sanitate suggests that well-being will increasingly be based on health, continued mental stimulation, and consumption of cultural products, rather than fossil fuels and materials. Thus, cognition-or brain power-can be viewed as the zero-emissions energy for sustainable development.
Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.
Health of the developing region's population is generally not good due to variety of reasons. The state of disease/illness or any other sign or problems of health is the most dynamic aspect of study. This study focuses on general health condition of the agricultural population and its relationship with the agricultural sustainability. This paper is an outcome of the observation and information of the past studies carried out in a segment of lower Ganga Plain located in eastern India. This area may serve as a representative of the developing region. Disease/illness or any other sign of health problems increasingly deteriorate health condition of each age group population. Health problems of agricultural workers cause a great loss of man-days and deficit in labour supply in agriculture and in turn adversely affect household and agricultural sustainability.
There are many dimensions of intergenerational justice, and demography matters for many of these. Traditionally, global population
growth has been seen as an important danger in terms of worsening living conditions for future generations through exhaustion
of natural resources, and other environmental impacts. More recently, the discussions about global climate change have given
these concerns a new urgency (O’Neill et al. 2001). While the concern about unsustainable population growth at a global level,
and in particular for countries in Africa and West Asia, which still expect very rapid population growth in the future, remains
valid and requires all the necessary attention, a new concern has appeared in the context of very low fertility rates in some
countries in Europe, and also increasingly in Eastern Asia. As described in this volume, the rapid population ageing that
results from low fertility combined with increasing life expectancy raises a host of new challenges for intergenerational
justice. Unfortunately, some people tend to focus only on the challenges associated with rapid growth, while others focus
on those resulting from rapid ageing, each downplaying the other. But it is important to understand that both rapid growth
and rapid ageing can bring about serious challenges, in some cases for different societies, and in other cases even in the
same country. The most prominent example of this is China, where further growth due to momentum, and rapid ageing need to
be addressed simultaneously. There are many examples in life where opposing extremes bring problems.
Subsidence, the lowering of Earth's land surface, is a potentially destructive hazard that can be caused by a wide range of natural or anthropogenic triggers but mainly results from solid or fluid mobilization underground. Subsidence due to groundwater depletion (1) is a slow and gradual process that develops on large time scales (months to years), producing progressive loss of land elevation (centimeters to decimeters per year) typically over very large areas (tens to thousands of square kilometers) and variably affects urban and agricultural areas worldwide. Subsidence permanently reduces aquifer-system storage capacity, causes earth fissures, damages buildings and civil infrastructure, and increases flood susceptibility and risk. During the next decades, global population and economic growth will continue to increase groundwater demand and accompanying groundwater depletion (2) and, when exacerbated by droughts (3), will probably increase land subsidence occurrence and related damages or impacts. To raise awareness and inform decision-making, we evaluate potential global subsidence due to groundwater depletion, a key first step toward formulating effective land-subsidence policies that are lacking in most countries worldwide.
Background:
The World Health Organization collaborated in the first Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), published in the 1993 World Development Report. This paper summarizes the substantial methodological improvements and expanding scope of GBD work carried out by WHO over the next 25 years.
Methods:
This review is based on a review of WHO and UN interagency work relating to Global Burden of Disease over the last 20 years, supplemented by a literature review of published papers and commentaries on global burden of disease activities and the production of global health statistics.
Results:
WHO development of global burden of disease work in the Millenium Development Goal era resulted in regular publication of time series estimates of deaths by cause, age and sex at country level, consistent with UN population and life table estimates, and with cause-specific statistics produced across UN agencies and interagency collaborations. This positioned WHO as the lead agency to monitor many of the 43 health-related indicators for the UN Sustainable Development Goals.In 2007, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) was established to conduct new global burden of disease and related work, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). WHO was a core collaborator in its first GBD2010 study, but withdrew prior to publication as it was unable to obtain full access input data and methods. The publication of global health statistics by IHME resulted in user confusion and in debate over differences and the reasons for them. The new WHO administration of Director General Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus has sought to make greater use of IHME outputs for its global health statistics and SDG monitoring.
Conclusions:
WHO work on global burden of disease has positioned it to be the lead agency for monitoring many of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Current moves to use IHME analyses raises a number of issues for WHO and for Member States in relation to WHO's constitutional mandate, its accountability to Member States, the consistency of WHO and UN demographic and health statistics, and the ability of Member States to engage with the results of the complex and computer-intensive modelling procedures used by IHME. As new global health actors and funders have arisen in recent decades, and funding to carry out WHO's expanding mandate has declined, it is unclear whether WHO has the ability or desire to continue as the lead agency for global health statistics.
Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
Background
Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.
Methods
We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions.
Findings
The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33–2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82–8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27–9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers.
Interpretation
Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Importance
Knowledge of whether serious adverse pregnancy outcomes are associated with increasingly widespread effects of climate change in the US would be crucial for the obstetrical medical community and for women and families across the country.
Objective
To investigate prenatal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone, and heat, and the association of these factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and stillbirth.
Evidence Review
This systematic review involved a comprehensive search for primary literature in Cochrane Library, Cochrane Collaboration Registry of Controlled Trials, PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov website, and MEDLINE. Qualifying primary research studies included human participants in US populations that were published in English between January 1, 2007, and April 30, 2019. Included articles analyzed the associations between air pollutants or heat and obstetrical outcomes. Comparative observational cohort studies and cross-sectional studies with comparators were included, without minimum sample size. Additional articles found through reference review were also considered. Articles analyzing other obstetrical outcomes, non-US populations, and reviews were excluded. Two reviewers independently determined study eligibility. The Arskey and O’Malley scoping review framework was used. Data extraction was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline.
Findings
Of the 1851 articles identified, 68 met the inclusion criteria. Overall, 32 798 152 births were analyzed, with a mean (SD) of 565 485 (783 278) births per study. A total of 57 studies (48 of 58 [84%] on air pollutants; 9 of 10 [90%] on heat) showed a significant association of air pollutant and heat exposure with birth outcomes. Positive associations were found across all US geographic regions. Exposure to PM2.5 or ozone was associated with increased risk of preterm birth in 19 of 24 studies (79%) and low birth weight in 25 of 29 studies (86%). The subpopulations at highest risk were persons with asthma and minority groups, especially black mothers. Accurate comparisons of risk were limited by differences in study design, exposure measurement, population demographics, and seasonality.
Conclusions and Relevance
This review suggests that increasingly common environmental exposures exacerbated by climate change are significantly associated with serious adverse pregnancy outcomes across the US.
All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.
Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society’s landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.
[view-only OPEN ACCESS version of the article is available at https://rdcu.be/b0xn4] Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.
Concern about the human impact of climate change has led to predictions of how people living in areas vulnerable to drought, flood, and temperature changes will respond to such events. Early studies warned that climate change would lead to dramatic increases in human migration as households became unable to adapt to the impacts of climate change. More recently, empirical studies focused on observed climate events and trends have documented how migration flows vary as a function of both the severity of the event and the ability of the household to migrate, among other factors. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of this literature, based on a conceptual framework in which climate shocks (e.g., drought, floods, or temperature extremes) affect (a) household capability to migrate, by depleting household resources necessary for migration, and (b) household vulnerability in staying, by increasing the risk that a household falls (further) into poverty. In combination, these factors help explain four key patterns seen in the empirical literature: (1) climate-induced migration is not necessarily more prevalent among poorer households; (2) climate-induced migration tends to be more prevalent for long-distance domestic moves than local or international moves; (3) slow-onset climate changes (such as droughts) are more likely to induce increased migration than rapid-onset changes (such as floods); and (4) the severity of climate shocks impacts migration in a nonlinear fashion, with impacts influenced by whether the capability or vulnerability channel dominates.
Background
Climate change adaptation is on the forefront of the global agenda, and momentum for international financing for climate change adaptation projects is growing. This growth provides an opportunity to engage with adaptation decision makers and processes to include women's empowerment as part of multisectoral climate adaptation projects.
Methods
A growing evidence base links women's met needs for family planning with reduced human vulnerability to climate change and enhanced resilience in the face of climate change impacts. Yet, population and family planning have been largely left out of adaptation proposals and projects. Through key informant interviews, a literature review, and research, the Population Reference Bureau identified how to promote the inclusion of family planning in climate adaptation strategies in ways that build resilience, improve health, and enhance women's economic empowerment.
Findings
Ways to integrate family planning into climate adaptation strategies included drawing the connections to and building the evidence base for including family planning in multisectoral adaptation approaches; reaching out to a country's designated authority to identify main climate change adaptation decision makers and develop an understanding of how adaptation finance flows; engaging in a country's National Adaptation Plan process to connect with stakeholders and identify country-driven adaptation priorities; and considering partnering with others in developing multisectoral proposals that include family planning and help to implement those proposals.
Interpretation
The best opportunity for funding family planning and reproductive health within adaptation projects is to integrate women's empowerment—including family planning—within multisectoral proposals. The research includes an example of how to apply these key strategies, showing how the women's empowerment community could seize opportunities created by the importance of adapting to climate change and the growing availability of international climate financing to strengthen prospects for including women's health in climate adaptation projects. The Ecological Christian Organization of Uganda and Reproductive Health Uganda are following the Population Reference Bureau's research with a country-level strategy to advocate for the adoption of a multisectoral approach to climate adaptation in Uganda.
Funding
United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
Tropical ecosystems are large carbon stores that are vulnerable to climate change. The sparseness of ground-based measurements has precluded verification of these ecosystems being a net annual source (+ve) or sink (-ve) of atmospheric carbon. We show that two independent satellite data sets of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), interpreted using independent models, are consistent with the land tropics being a net annual carbon emission of [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] petagrams (PgC) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. These pan-tropical estimates reflect unexpectedly large net emissions from tropical Africa of [Formula: see text] PgC in 2015 and [Formula: see text] PgC in 2016. The largest carbon uptake is over the Congo basin, and the two loci of carbon emissions are over western Ethiopia and western tropical Africa, where there are large soil organic carbon stores and where there has been substantial land use change. These signals are present in the space-borne CO2 record from 2009 onwards.
Background:
Despite strong theoretical grounding, important gaps in knowledge remain regarding the degree to which there is a causal relationship between education and sexual and reproductive health, as many claims have been made based on associations alone. Understanding the extent to which these relationships are causal is important both to inform investments in education and health, as well as to understand the mechanisms underlying these relationships.
Methods:
We conducted a systematic review of the evidence for a causal link between education and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) in low and middle-income countries. Education indicators included exposure to formal schooling and learning. SRH outcomes included: age at first sex, age at first marriage, age at first pregnancy/birth, contraceptive use, fertility, and HIV status and other sexually transmitted infections. When possible, we also conducted meta-analyses to estimate mean effects by outcome, and to understand sources of variation between studies.
Results:
We identified 35 papers that met our inclusion criteria. Although many of the studies report evidence of a causal relationship between education and one or more SRH outcomes, estimated effects are often small in magnitude. Our meta-analyses reveal mostly null mean effects, with the exception of small effects of increased grade attainment on lower fertility and HIV positive status. We also found inconsistent evidence supporting mechanisms linking education and SRH.
Conclusions:
This review demonstrates that, although investments in schooling may have positive ripple effects for sexual and reproductive health in some circumstances, those effects may not be as large or consistent as expected. Further, our understanding of the circumstances in which schooling is most likely to improve SRH remains somewhat limited. An accurate picture of whether and when improvements in education lead to better health outcomes is essential for the achievement of global development goals.
Background
Exposure to ambient particulate matter generated from coal-fired power plants induces long-term health consequences. However, epidemiologic studies have not yet focused on attributing these health burdens specifically to energy consumption, impeding targeted intervention policies. We hypothesize that the generating capacity of coal-fired power plants may be associated with lung cancer incidence at the national level.
Methods
Age- and sex-adjusted lung cancer incidence from every country with electrical plants using coal as primary energy supply were followed from 2000 to 2016. We applied a Poisson regression longitudinal model, fitted using generalized estimating equations, to estimate the association between lung cancer incidence and per capita coal capacity, adjusting for various behavioral and demographic determinants and lag periods.
Results
The average coal capacity increased by 1.43 times from 16.01 gigawatts (GW) (2000~2004) to 22.82 GW (2010~2016). With 1 kW (KW) increase of coal capacity per person in a country, the relative risk of lung cancer increases by a factor of 59% (95% CI = 7.0%~ 135%) among males and 85% (95% CI = 22%~ 182%) among females. Based on the model, we estimate a total of 1.37 (range = 1.34 ~ 1.40) million standardized incident cases from lung cancer will be associated with coal-fired power plants in 2025.
Conclusions
These analyses suggest an association between lung cancer incidence and increased reliance on coal for energy generation. Such data may be helpful in addressing a key policy question about the externality costs and estimates of the global disease burden from preventable lung cancer attributable to coal-fired power plants at the national level.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (10.1186/s12940-019-0448-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Using 2016 household survey data from Tanzania, we define and measure resilience within the context of Population, Health, and Environment programming and quantify the link between resilience and family planning. We created a multicomponent model using confirmatory factor analysis in a structural equation modeling context. Factor loadings for eight defined latent factors of resilience were statistically significant (p < 0.001). We created a factor called “FP-MCH” reflecting awareness, attitudes, and access to family planning (FP) and health care services and use of maternal and child health care (MCH) facilities. Analysis, with controls, shows that a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in FP/MCH was associated with a 0.68 SD increase in resilience (p < 0.01), suggesting that the association between FP/MCH and resilience is robust across a range of factors. Analyses showed that the association between FP/MCH is broadly related to the construct of resilience and not through any single component. This study supports the importance of including FP/MCH as part of integrated projects to enhance resilience.
As Egypt's population increases, the demand for fresh groundwater extraction will intensify. Consequently, the groundwater quality will deteriorate, including an increase in salinization. On the other hand, salinization caused by saltwater intrusion in the coastal Nile Delta Aquifer (NDA) is also threatening the groundwater resources. The aim of this article is to assess the situation in 2010 (since this is when most data is sufficiently available) regarding the available fresh groundwater resources and to evaluate future salinization in the NDA using a 3D variable-density groundwater flow model coupled with salt transport that was developed with SEAWAT. This is achieved by examining six future scenarios that combine two driving forces: increased extraction and sea level rise (SLR). Given the prognosis of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the scenarios are used to assess the impact of groundwater extraction versus SLR on the seawater intrusion in the Delta and evaluate their contributions to increased groundwater salinization. The results show that groundwater extraction has a greater impact on salinization of the NDA than SLR, while the two factors combined cause the largest reduction of available fresh groundwater resources. The significant findings of this research are the determination of the groundwater volumes of fresh water, brackish, light brackish and saline water in the NDA as a whole and in each governorate and the identification of the governorates that are most vulnerable to salinization. It is highly recommended that the results of this analysis are considered in future mitigation and/or adaptation plans.
Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum inso-lation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C −1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.
Limited data exists on emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and available data are typically uncertain. In this paper, we provide comparable estimates of emissions from both all deforestation and agriculture-driven deforestation, with uncertainties for 91 countries across the tropics between 1990 and 2015. Uncertainties associated with input datasets (activity data and emissions factors) were used to combine the datasets, where most certain datasets contribute the most. This method utilizes all the input data, while minimizing the uncertainty of the emissions estimate. The uncertainty of input datasets was influenced by the quality of the data, the sample size (for sample-based datasets), and the extent to which the timeframe of the data matches the period of interest. Area of deforestation, and the agriculture-driver factor (extent to which agriculture drives deforestation), were the most uncertain components of the emissions estimates, thus improvement in the uncertainties related to these estimates will provide the greatest reductions in uncertainties of emissions estimates. Over the period of the study, Latin America had the highest proportion of deforestation driven by agriculture (78%), and Africa had the lowest (62%). Latin America had the highest emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and these peaked at 974±148 Mt CO² yr⁻¹ in 2000-2005. Africa saw a continuous increase in emissions between 1990 and 2015 (from 154±21-412±75 Mt CO2 yr⁻¹), so mitigation initiatives could be prioritized there. Uncertainties for emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation are ±62.4% (average over 1990-2015), and uncertainties were highest in Asia and lowest in Latin America. Uncertainty information is crucial for transparency when reporting, and gives credibility to related mitigation initiatives. We demonstrate that uncertainty data can also be useful when combining multiple open datasets, so we recommend new data providers to include this information.
The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.
Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO2e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.
Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to -1/448% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and -1/474% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Population Health and Environment (PHE) strategies are argued to improve ecosystem and human health by addressing family size and its effects on natural resource use, food security, and reproductive health. This study investigates men's views on a PHE family planning (FP) programme delivered among the pastoral Samburu tribe in rural northern Kenya. Three focus group discussions and nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with 27 Samburu men. These discussions revealed support for environmentally-sensitised family planning promotion. Men highlighted their dependency on natural resources and challenges faced in providing for large families and maintaining livestock during drought. These practices were said to lead to natural resource exhaustion, environmental degradation, and wildlife dispersal, undermining key economic benefits of environmental and wildlife conservation. Relating family size to the environment is a compelling strategy to improve support for FP among Samburu men. Kenyan policy-makers should consider integrating community-based PHE strategies among underserved pastoral groups living in fragile ecosystems.
Japan is shrinking. Current projections indicate a population decrease of around one quarter by mid-century. Depopulation is potentially good news, providing opportunities for reconfiguring living conditions and alleviating human-environmental pressures. Nevertheless, ageing and depopulation have outcomes that require adjustment. One of these is spatial inequalities, which have been accelerating since the 1990s. Japan is the Asia-Pacific’s pioneer ageing and shrinking society. In East Asia both China and South Korea are ageing and expected to begin shrinking soon. Even high immigration Anglophone countries such as New Zealand are experiencing post-growth demographic processes at subnational level. Japan’s significance is in how adaptive responses there inform prospects for others as they experience their own post-growth pathways. This article presents case studies of Sado Island in Japan and New Zealand’s South Island in a comparative qualitative analysis of rural agency under population decline. Overall, I contend there is potential for benefitting from demographic shrinkage – what I term a ‘depopulation dividend’ – and for rural regions in the Asia-Pacific to progress towards a sustainable post-growth economy and society.
Sexual and reproductive health services in Iran are influenced by population policies. Willingness of Iranian policy makers to control the population’s growth rate resulted in the provision of countrywide family planning services and contraceptives from 1990 to 2013. Now policy makers favour population growth because of a statistically significant decline in the fertility rate and ageing of the population. New population policies contain incentives for higher fertility and limitations on family planning services. Some elements of these policies contradict standards of international human rights treaties including prohibition against retrogressive measures and limitations on sexual and reproductive health services. These policies may jeopardize individual and public health. Iran should immediately revoke these laws and policies and progressively improve people’s enjoyment of their right to sexual and reproductive health. The country’s population policies should focus on encouraging people to have higher fertility by providing financial and social support to parents and future children.
Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity's ability to protect our planet's climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest-and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy Adaptation Sustainability and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts.
The COVID‐19 pandemic has taken much of the world by surprise. With over 4 700 000 infections to date across 188 countries and more than 310 000 deaths worldwide over the course of just 5 months, we were remarkably unprepared.[1] Although the focus has rightly been on the provision of adequate health care for those falling ill from the virus and the search for a cure or vaccine, we must be aware that looming in the background are the usual health issues that millions of people face every day, and that these will not go away during the pandemic.
Over the past six decades, fertility rates fell dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quanti- tative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socio-economic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contracep- tives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at al- tering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.
The rise of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has augured profound changes in the landscape of global health metrics. Primarily funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME has offered donors a platform for assessing many health‐related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators and a toolkit to measure the progress of different countries. The IHME's increasing influence reveals the relative sidelining of international agencies and especially the World Health Organization which has long been central to global health metrics production. This shift reflects a growing conflict between the expertise and norms of national and intergovernmental statistical production on the one hand, and the distinct epistemologies and logics of new non‐state data actors. These transitions – from an international world of statistics to a more plural, global realm of data – have acute implications for the politics and accountability of knowledge production related to the SDGs and development writ large. Even as the SDGs embrace the rubric of ‘no one left behind’, the emerging data politics might be eroding the ability of poorer states to know and act upon their development problems on their own terms. The IHME might be exacerbating the problem of data gaps from poor countries because of its move away from an exclusive reliance on government statistical data and towards collection of data from private sources.
As the nations of the world grapple with the task of creating sustainable societies, ending and in some cases reversing population growth will be necessary to succeed. Yet stable or declining populations are typically reported in the media as a problem, or even a crisis, due to demographic aging. This is misguided, as economic analyses show that the costs connected with aging societies are manageable, while the economic, social, and environmental benefits of smaller populations are substantial. Earth's human-carrying capacity has been exceeded; hence, population growth must end and aging societies are unavoidable. They should be embraced as part of a just and prosperous future for people and the other species with whom we share our planet.
Global maps of forest loss depict the scale and magnitude of forest disturbance, yet companies, governments, and nongovernmental organizations need to distinguish permanent conversion (i.e., deforestation) from temporary loss from forestry or wildfire. Using satellite imagery, we developed a forest loss classification model to determine a spatial attribution of forest disturbance to the dominant drivers of land cover and land use change over the period 2001 to 2015. Our results indicate that 27% of global forest loss can be attributed to deforestation through permanent land use change for commodity production. The remaining areas maintained the same land use over 15 years; in those areas, loss was attributed to forestry (26%), shifting agriculture (24%), and wildfire (23%). Despite corporate commitments, the rate of commodity-driven deforestation has not declined. To end deforestation, companies must eliminate 5 million hectares of conversion from supply chains each year.
Global food demand is expected to increase, affecting required land, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs along with unintended emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and losses of N and P. To quantify these input requirements and associated emissions/losses as a function of food demand, we built a comprehensive model of the food system and investigated the effects of multiple interventions in the food system on multiple environmental goals. Model outcomes are compared to planetary boundaries for land system change, climate change and the global N and P cycles to identify interventions that direct us towards a safe operating space for humanity. Results show a transgression of most boundaries already for 2010 and a drastic deterioration in the reference scenario for 2050 in which no improvements relative to 2010 were implemented. We defined the following improvements for 2050: reduction of waste, less consumption of animal products, higher feed conversion efficiency, higher crop and grassland yields, reduction of N and P losses from agricultural land and reduction of ammonia (NH3) volatilization. The effects of these measures were quantified individually and in combination. Significant trade-offs and synergies in our results underline the importance of a comprehensive analysis with respect to the entire food system, including multiple measures and environmental goals. The combination of all measures was able to partly prevent transgression of the boundaries for: agricultural area requirement, GHG emission and P flow into the ocean. However, global mineral N and P fertilizer inputs and total N loss to air and water still exceeded their boundaries in our study. The planetary boundary concept is discussed in relation to the selected variables and boundary values, including the additional necessity of eliminating the dependency of our food production on finite P reserves. We argue that total N loss is a better indicator of the environmental impacts of the global N cycle than fertilizer N input. Most measures studied in this paper are also on the agenda of the United Nations for Sustainable Development, which gives added support to their implementation.
Forest conversion in the tropics is increasingly driven by global demand for agricultural forest-risk commodities such as soy, beef, palm oil and timber. In order to be effective, future forest conservation policies should include measures targeting both producers (the supply side) and consumers (the demand side) to address commodity-driven deforestation. Whereas the UN Conventions on Biodiversity (CBD) and Climate Change (UNFCCC) do not make reference to this driving factor, here we explore whether and how recent national strategies by member states to the Conventions acknowledge the role of agricultural commodities in tropical deforestation. A text analysis of 139 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to climate change mitigation and 132 National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) shows that the general trade-off between national development aspirations and forest conservation is commonly acknowledged. However, only few strategies link deforestation to commodity production and consumption, whereas most documents do not mention this topic. This lack of reference to a key driver of tropical deforestation limits the prospects of safeguarding tropical forests for biodiversity and climate change mitigation purposes as part of the two UN Conventions, and might jeopardise their overall effectiveness.These findings were complemented by a content analysis of INDCs, NBSAPs and REDD+ documents from eight case countries affected by commodity-driven deforestation. We investigated whether this driver is acknowledged in the national strategies, and which policy measures are suggested to address forest loss from agricultural commodities. We found that six case countries mention agricultural commodities as deforestation driver in their REDD+ documents, whereas the biodiversity and climate change strategies were silent on the topic. Policy measures targeting commodity production were suggested in four REDD+ strategies, ranging from incentive payments, sustainable agricultural practices and land-use planning to demand-side approaches such as certification and the promotion of sustainable lifestyles.One conclusion from this exercise is that UN member states seem not to consider climate and biodiversity national plans the adequate forum to discuss detailed forest conservation approaches. We argue that in order to increase effectiveness, strategies under the UN Conventions should take commodity-driven deforestation into account, through measures that address both the producer and the consumer side.
The rapid population growth in developing countries in the middle of the 20th century led to fears of a population explosion and motivated the inception of what effectively became a global population-control program. The initiative, propelled in its beginnings by intellectual elites in the United States, Sweden, and some developing countries, mobilized resources to enact policies aimed at reducing fertility by widening contraception provision and changing family-size norms. In the following five decades, fertility rates fell dramatically, with a majority of countries converging to a fertility rate just above two children per woman, despite large cross-country differences in economic variables such as GDP per capita, education levels, urbanization, and female labour force participation. The fast decline in fertility rates in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the gradual decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. In this paper, we argue that population-control policies are likely to have played a central role in the global decline in fertility rates in recent decades and can explain some patterns of that fertility decline that are not well accounted for by other socioeconomic factors
Contends that the size of the world's population is immaterial, the most important factor is the lifestyle adopted. A world population with the lifestyle of North Americans would be economically more expensive to service than one with the lifestyle of the Chinese. Considers that a population growth rate of 2% is the optimum. -after Author
Drawdown maps, measures, models, and describes the 100 most substantive solutions to global warming. For each solution, we describe its history, the carbon impact it provides, the relative cost and savings, the path to adoption, and how it works. The goal of the research that informs Drawdown is to determine if we can reverse the buildup of atmospheric carbon within thirty years. All solutions modeled are already in place, well understood, analyzed based on peer-reviewed science, and are expanding around the world.
http://www.drawdown.org/
Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.
Turkey has maintained liberal contraception and abortion policies since the 1980s. In 2012, the government proposed to restrict abortion; a bill limiting abortion was later drafted but never passed into law. Since the proposed restriction, women have reported difficulty accessing abortion services across Turkey. We aimed to better understand the current availability of abortion and reproductive health services in Istanbul and explore whether access to services has changed since 2012. In 2015, we completed 14 in-depth interviews with women and 11 semi-structured interviews with key informants. We transcribed all interviews and completed content and thematic analyses of the data. Key informants had good knowledge about the political discourse and the current abortion law. In contrast, women were familiar with the political discourse but had mixed information about the current status of abortion and were unsure about the legality of their own abortions. There was consensus that access to services has become more limited in the last five years due to the political climate, thus advocacy to prioritize reproductive health services, and abortion care in particular, in the public health system are needed.