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Higgs 2021 Poster GeolSoc Climate Conference.pdf

Authors:
  • Geoclastica Ltd

Abstract

Freely downloadable 10-slide poster (10 minutes), clearly explaining why global warming and future cooling (within 100 years) are driven by our star, the Sun, not man's CO2 emissions which, in reality, are hugely beneficial for forest growth and agriculture.
Geological Society (London) virtual conference
'Climate Change in the Geological Record’
26-27th May 2021
Global warming & cooling for last 2,000 years
mimic Sun's magnetic activity, not CO2 :
scientific literature synthesis
POSTER (10 slides, pdf)
See accompanying peer-reviewed abstract
Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil geology, Oxford, 1982-86)
Geology, Climate & Sea Level Consultant, Geoclastica Ltd, UK
1000 AD 2000 AD
1 AD
Temp.,
near-surface air,
world average
Multi-proxy
PAGES2k 2013
Little Ice Age
Last 2,000 years (y): Global Temperature & Sun, strong correlation
Warming
to ~2090
(1991 SMO
peak, plus
100y lag)
~100y lag
by ocean thermal inertia
Slide&2&of&10&
Pink shading =
“volcanic-solar
downturns”
Total solar irradiance,
proxy for
Sun’s
magnetic
output,
SMO
reconstructed from
tree-ring C14 (blue)
& sunspots (red)
Vieira et al. 2011
Sun’s strongest Grand Maximum in >10,000y
... Solanki et al. 2004 https://www.academia.edu/24429303
SMO (controls cosmic rays, cf. Svensmark) rose 130% in 20th C, peaked 1991
... Lockwood et al. 1999 https://www.nature.com/articles/20867
Solar Grand
Maximum,
peak 310AD
Note: (1) consistency of the time-lag; (2) similar proportionality of ‘sawteeth’
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2011/07/aa15843-10.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1797
Pink line =
HadCRUT,
thermometer
Last 7,000y: Temperature - Sun, good correlation, confirming ~100y lag
5000 BC
Pseudo-sunspot
number, proxy for
Sun’s
magnetic
output
Wu et al. 2018
Temp., air,
world average
Multi-proxy
Javier Vinos 2017
Red curve from Marcott
et al. 2013
Black curve by Vinos,
based on Marcott data
2000 AD
Red = SILSO “corrected” sunspot graph. This c.1780 peak is too high (contrast Slides 5, 8) ...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336150058
Slide&3&of&10&
BC AD
Axial obliquity decline (scale at far right) explains
overall cooling. ‘Corrected’ by tilting (next slide).
slant = ~100y
‘ocean lag’
Warming
to come
https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/30/
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2018/07/aa31892-17/aa31892-17.html
Last 7,000y: Temperature & Sun correlate even better
after ‘deducting’ cooling caused by declining obliquity
5000BC
Sun’s
magnetic
output
Proxy. See previous
slide.
Temp., air,
world average
Multi-proxy
See previous slide.
Graph rotated to compensate for declining obliquity
(left & right ends of solid purple curve are leveled)
2000AD
Slide&4&of&10&
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
Icecore data before 1958. Mauna Loa data after 1958.
January 14, 2021
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
200
250
300
350
400
Group Sunspot Number (GSN)
Proxy for Sun’s magnetic output
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Activity_Proxies.png
Black curve = 30-year smoothed
Rohde 2006 Applying ~100y
‘ocean lag’ ...
aligns multi-decade
up-down ‘sawteeth
(black bars)
Moreover ...
sawteeth have equal
proportionality
(amplitude ratio;
blue arrows).
Contrast CO2 curve,
no multi-decade
sawteeth
?
~100y lag
Slide&5&of&10&
Man-made CO2 since ~1850
start of Industrial Revolution
Man’s CO2 additions began ~1850,
start of Industrial Revolution
Temp., air, world average
Thermometer, HadCRUT
CO2 ppm,
air
Last 150y: Temperature - Sun, excellent correlation
after correcting for ~100y ‘ocean lag’
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu
Imminent
Sun-driven
~3m SL rise
by 2100
Sea level (SL) & Sun, last 7,000y, good correlation,
despite SL low resolution (sample gaps) & +/- 200yr radiocarbon-age uncertainty
BC AD
5000BC 2000AD
Sun
from Slide 3
Sea Level
from worldwide
geological &
archaeological
benchmarks
Fairbridge &
Hillaire-Marcel 1977
SL today
Slide&6&of&10&
3m
https://www.nature.com/articles/268413a0
= update of classic ‘Fairbridge Curve’ (1961) ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0079194661900040
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351112320
Sea level (SL) & Sun, last 2,000y, good correlation,
despite SL low resolution (sample gaps) & +/- 200yr radiocarbon-age uncertainty
1000 AD 2000 AD
1 AD
Imminent
~3m SL rise
Higgs 2021
3m SL rise; in fact spanned ~350-450AD. Caused by W Antarctic
ice-sheet collapse related to the 310AD super-Grand Maximum ...
Higgs 2021, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346794162
~100y lag
310AD
Slide&7&of&10&
Sun
magnetic
output
from Slide 2
Sea
Level
from Slide 6
Sea Level, world
Jevrejeva et al. 2008, tide gauges
NASA satellite 1993-2020
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
Group Sunspot Number
Be10 in ice core
Slide&8&of&10&
Lag ~50y
‘Global warming hiatus’ 1998-2013
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus
Sun’s
magnetic
output
Proxies
Source: Slide 5
Last 300y: Sun & sea-level, good correlation,
after correcting for ~50y lag
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL033611
CO2,
atmospheric
from Antarctic ice cores
& (red) air
measurements
DeWikiMan
Temp.,
air,
world
average
from Slide 3 BC AD
Differences from Temp. curve above:
1. No parallel climb in temp., even after correcting (rotating) for obliquity
2. CO2 ‘sawteeth’ are minuscule, relative to post-1850 surge (cf. Slide 5)
Slide&9&of&10&
Graph rotated ... see Slide 4
2000AD
5000BC
Temperature & CO2, last 7,000y, almost no correlation
Industrial CO2
rise accompanied
warming
... by chance ?
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ghgs-epcia-holocene-CO2-en.svg
CONCLUSIONS
1. For the last 7,000 years (y), Earth’s average near-surface air temperature matches the Sun’s magnetic output (SMO) in terms of:
(A) multi-century trends; (B) multi-decade up-down ‘sawteeth’; & (C) sawtooth proportionality (amplitude ratio). Moreover the
trends and sawteeth align by applying ~100y temperature lag, readily attributable to the ocean’s well-known large thermal inertia.
2. Thus the Sun can explain 100% of ‘Modern Warming’ (from 1830, punctuated by two 30-year coolings & the 1998-2013 hiatus), by
Svensmark’s Theory, i.e. solar-magnetic output (SMO) governs cosmic-ray arrivals, hence cloudiness, hence ocean temperature (100y
lag), hence air temperature ... https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/48/1/1.18/220765 .
3. Thus industrial CO2 output (since ~1850) accompanied Sun-driven warming by chance, a conclusion supported by the pre-1850
CO2/temp. anti-correlation (‘Holocene Temperature Conundrum’, https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/34/E3501.full.pdf )
and CO2’s post-1850 lack of multi-decade sawteeth.
4. Thus CO2’s theoretical greenhouse-warming potential, already (at 400pm) reduced "well into the saturation regime” ...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098 ... , must have been cancelled by negative feedbacks. A natural negative feedback ignored in
climate models is increased biogenic ‘BVOC’ aerosol due to faster forest growth by warming & CO2 fertilization, “potentially very
important” ... https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-94-007-6606-8_17 .
5. Sea level (SL) is a proxy for temperature (unsurprising); and vice versa.
6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) five major errors in Fifth Assessment Report (2013):
A) ignored SMO ... e.g. famous fig. SPM.5 validly supposes “solar irradiance” minuscule variations affect climate negligibly ...
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf ... but omits SMO, whose variations (in lockstep
with irradiance) are much greater, e.g. 20th Century >130% increase ... https://www.nature.com/articles/20867
B) dismissed Svensmark ... https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter07_FINAL-1.pdf
C) neglected ‘ocean lag’ ... e.g. Sun “cannot explain global mean surface warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance
has declined” ... https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
D) ignored all natural negative feedbacks ... omitted in fig. SPM.5, despite admitting “total global BVOC emissions have large
uncertainties” ... https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter07_FINAL-1.pdf
E) dismissed Fairbridge SL curve. Instead in https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf
IPCC says (“medium confidence”) that SL oscillated <25cm in last few millennia & was never higher than now (fig. 5.17f, Lambeck
SL curve), so the 30cm rise measured since 1800 (fig. 5.17e) is unnaturally large & fast, i.e. man's fault (CO2 'greenhouse' warming).
7. Another ‘Fairbridge-type’ metre-scale SL rise is predicted, ~3 metres, starting any day now, and ending by ~2100 ...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351112320 & keynote lecture https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346794162 .
For more details & references see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334029086
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345778067 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348369922 Slide&10&of&10&

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