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DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE & A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

May 2021

Authors:

Vivek Gopal

Jawaharlal Nehru University

Predicted Advances in Technology

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The Technology Continuum -What Truly Comprises Game Changing

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D2 Model of Technology 2020-2040

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AI: Use Cases

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Ratnik-3 Russian Exoskeleton

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Figures - uploaded by Vivek Gopal

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Content uploaded by Vivek Gopal

Content may be subject to copyright.

Lt Col Vivek Gopal

Centre for Joint Warfare Studies

March 2021

Lt Col Vivek Gopal, a graduate of the National Defence Academy,

was commissioned in December 2000. A MTech, paratrooper &

certied Project Management Associate, the ocer is presently

posted as Instructor at a premier training establishment.

About the Author

ABSTRACT - In the next two decades the overarching characteristics

of technology will be rooted in being intelligent (smart), interconnected

& distributed. All technology coming in the future will ensure the war-

ghter is stronger, more adaptable, lethal & versatile than ever before.

e next two to three decades will bring forth a watershed moment

in defence technology use cases. Sustaining & disruptive innovations form an important part of

the military innovation concepts. Sustaining innovations reinforce existing technologies while

disruptive innovations cause the technologies to change & transform to such an extent that the

original form perishes. One has to remember that futuristic technologies may not map present-

day capabilities as perceived. Speed & complexity of the technologies without a regulatory

mechanism in place, may spiral into scenarios where morals & ethics will actually have to play

a paramount role in decision making. However, these dual-use technologies are here to stay &

transform not only our daily lives but also impact warfare indelibly. Further research is thus, the

only way forward ensuring convergence in our actions & processes. One has to understand the

current technological landscape & later suggest a coherent & rational framework which will help

leverage these technologies to the maximum to benet the war-ghter.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE

TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR

ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

KALEIDOSCOPE & A WAY AHEAD FOR

ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Lt Col Vivek Gopal

Centre for Joint Warfare Studies

Kashmir House, Rajaji Marg, New Delhi-110 001

Tel. Nos: 011-23792446, 23006535, 23006538/9, Fax: 011-23792444

Website: http://cenjows.gov.in, e-mail: cenjows@cenjows.gov.in

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TECHNOLOGIES ASSOCIATED

WITH DISRUPTION

Key words - Articial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Quantum

Key Distribution, Additive Manufacturing, Gene Editing -

Biotechnology, Drone Warfare - Counter drone systems & Swarms,

Smart Munitions, 6G, Blockchain, Extended Reality (XR), Big

data analytics, Battleeld IoT, Space Technology, Edge & Cloud

Computing

INTRODUCTION

This brief draws its motivation from the ‘Disruptive Technology for

Defence Transformation’ online conference which was conducted from

15-18 September 2020, organised by Defence IQ.i

Disruptive technology is a term popularized by a Harvard business

professor and may be dened as an innovation that forces the

advancement in security or degrades current security as related to

changes in geopolitical, military, economic or social cohesion factors.1

The Cambridge online dictionary offers another denition - “A disruptive

technology overturns a traditional business model, which makes it much

i https://www.defenceiq.com/events-disruptivetechonline/ - An event bringing together senior gures

from Armed Forces, Government, Industry and Academia to explore the integration of Digital Age technologies

to retain strategic overmatch in future hybrid warfare.

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harder for an established rm to embrace”.2 Stemming from this, simply

put, it may be out-of-the -box thinking with respect to any aspect that

allows asymmetric advantage or a magnied gain allowing the odds to

turn favourable. The aspect of technology is more profound & hence

discussed in greater detail in this brief.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR)

Science & technology trends have been greatly inuenced by the 4IR.

Implications of the 4IR towards international security can be seen across

a variety of factors.3 As international security is deeply inuenced by

4IR, the role play of disruptive technology becomes more evident, both

4IR driven technology & disruptive technology being intertwined.

Technology – Dual Edged Weapon. Resulting asymmetry due to

disruptive technology is clearly visible, however, a weaker adversary

might utilise this easily available at times technology, to pose greater

threat for the opposing state.

Feel Good Factor. This feeling of superiority (at times) may be ill-

founded due to a miscalculation assuming an upper hand in technology.

Deterrence & Pre-emption. Greater deliberation by Commanders/ users

of disruptive technology will be needed to decide whether technology is

to act merely as a deterrent or cause irreparable damage.

New Arms Race. Resources are now being pooled by various

agencies working in tandem to develop new technologies. Dual use

technologies such as encryption, nano-satellites, genomics, AI & drone

technology is now developed by students in universities, in labs or

basements further multiplying the problem.

“Aconventionalconictinthenearfuturewillbeextremelylethaland

fast,andwewillnotownthestopwatch.”

-MajGenWillianHix,USArmy(Annualmeeting,Associationofthe

U.SArmy,October2016)

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

New Frontiers & Blurred Boundaries. Technology disruption has

led to blurring of boundaries between deterrence & destruction as also

new means to effect damage. Case in point of cyberwarfare where the

aggressor has plausible deniability leaving no trace, obfuscating the

situation & acting as a trigger to escalate into a full-scale war.

Fig.1 - Disruptive Technologies Categorised Under Four Heads

(Image Source: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/prism/prism_8-3/prism_8-3_

Raska_64-81.pdf)

Convergence in 4IR & Dual Use Technologies & the Defence innovation

trajectories of USA, Russia & China has been amply elucidated & studied

in detail by Michael Raska.

The convergence in these technologies (See

Fig.1 above) causes an imbalance as far as the technological advances are

concerned in various parts of the globe. One can recollect as an example,

how during the Gulf War – I, asymmetry in Information & Communication

Technology (ICT) led to a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Similarly,

since the Cold War, strategic imbalances have been created leading to

breaching new technological frontiers. The forecast disruptive technologies

will also lead to altering the theories of warghting as we know them.

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A concise gist of the forecasted technologies, a total of 29 of them

considered to be the causative agents for RMA has been brought out

Fig.2- Predicted Advances in Technology

(Image Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/forecasting-change-in-military-technology-2020-2040,

pp 5)

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

in a book “Technological Change and the Future of Warfare”5 & later

these have been analysed in a paper6 by the same author. Then, in

another paper, the latest by the author, change in military technology

in the two decades 2020-2040 has been covered7. Projected advances

in key deployable technologies has been clearly spelt out & forecasted

in this latest paper. Four relevant categories have been considered

while retaining the key 29 technologies specied in the book to begin

with. The categories are that of Sensors. Computer & Communication

Systems, Weapon platforms & fourthly, Weapon Systems with their

associated technologies. Stand alone, these technologies may not

cause any sizeable change. It will be the synergistic gameplay of these

technologies that will lead to actual revolution.

THE WORLD DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY CONTINUUM

What will the technology continuum look like? This has been elucidated

very well in the paper by the Centre for a New American Security.8 The

paper mentions that although prima facie, all technologies look game

changing, congruence among various factors (concept, purpose &

time) will lead to technologies having a game changing impact. Time

is an important factor because the effect of game changing technology

is time sensitive. Too late, and technology might lose its edge (See

Fig.3 below). Congruence among the concept, the tools used to effect

the change & the purpose for the technology being used is essential

to a game changing technology. Similarly, the perspective matters. To

paraphrase from the paper, an aircraft carrier was game changing in the

previous century, say 60s or 70s. Presently, a small nation state getting

an aircraft carrier capability may cause concern, however, will not have

a game changing effect. How the technologies are to be put into use

& adopted is governed to some extent by the societal view. Values

enable or constrain the development & use cases of these technologies

inuenced by society at large.

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The NATO Science & Technology Organisation has also proposed the

I2D2 (Intelligent, Interconnected. Digital, Distributed) model anticipated

for the next two decades where an interplayii of various predicted

technologies will lead to development of new technological frontiers/

advances (See Fig.4 below). I2D2 interplay explained in the report as in

Intelligent + Distributed = Autonomous systems, Interconnected + Digital

= Resilient communication networks, Intelligent + Digital = Precision.

Fig.3 - The Technology Continuum – What Truly Comprises Game Changing

(Image Source:https://www.les.ethz.ch/isn/170630/CNAS_Gamechangers_BrimleyFitzGeraldSayler_0.

pdf.)

ii I2D2 explained as –Intelligent: Exploit integrated AI, knowledge-focused analytic capabilities, and

symbiotic AIhuman intelligence;Interconnected: Exploit network of virtual and physical domains, including

networks of sensors, organisations, individuals and autonomous agents, linked via new encryption methods

and distributed ledger technologies;Distributed: Employ decentralised and ubiquitous large-scale sensing,

storage, and computation;Digital: Digitally blend human, physical and information domain.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

While elaboration of all the technologies classied as disruptive as well

the anticipated use cases will not be possible in this brief, a pertinent

few will be discussed alongside the developments taking place in major

nations of the world.

Articial Intelligence (AI)

AI as a technology cannot be studied in isolation or as a stand-alone

topic or concept. It refers to the entire gamut of technologies that uses

algorithms to learn from data, environment & experience. Autonomy &

enhanced processing power make it a technology to reckon with. Many

Fig.4 - I2D2 Model of Technology 2020-2040

(Image Source: D. Reding and J. Eaton, “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040”, NATO Science &

Technology Organization, Brussels, 2020.)

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countries such as China are employing state-owned enterprises to exploit

this niche technology for use in multiple disciplines including defence.

Fig. 5 - Left: The Boeing Airpower Teaming System is a new unmanned aircraft

using articial intelligence to be that force multiplier. It’s designed to work as

a smart team with existing military aircraft to complement and extend airborne

missions. Right: KARGU -2 Autonomous Attack Drone

(Image Source: White paper titled “The current state of AI in Defence and Security”, Defence IQ, September

2020)

To paraphrase form a strategy paper9 (mainly pointed against China by

the USA) on the topic of AI brings out a ve-pronged approach to tackle

the present situation viz.,

Direct - Selection of prioritised areas where AI is to be exploited as

a technology.

Engage - Incentivize participation among the various stakeholders.

Sharing & collaboration of data among various organisations.

Govern - Stronger partnerships & collaborations to understand &

develop standards for the use of data conjointly & collaboratively.

Compete - Exploit the alliances to gain maximum advantage

against all adversaries.

Protect - Protect own technology from falling into or a takeover by

the adversary.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Both, China (2017) as well as Russia (2019) have already formulated their

AI roadmap & strategy aimed at utilising this technology aggressively.

China especially has made it evident to the world of its desire to become

the AI leader by 2030. The current use cases of AI (See Fig. 5 above)

which have been trial evaluated include the autonomous aircraft as well

as drones.10 US Airforce is already conducting wargames with AI piloted

aircraft against usual human-piloted aircrafts. Various use cases of AI

can be summarised as given below (See Fig.6 below).

Fig. 6 - AI: Use Cases

(Image Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AC_CandleinDark120419_

FINAL.pdf)

Exoskeletons

A study11 predicts that by 2050, exoskeletonsiii will enable soldiers to

carry weapons of all calibres, a situation which is unimaginable today.

The study predicts the same based on a mathematical formula derived

over seven centuries of weapon development & predicts the soldier load

carrying capacity to increase by 50 percent by 2050.

iii An exoskeleton is an external frame that can be worn to support the body, either to help a person overcome

an injury or to enhance their biological capacities. Powered by a system of electric motors, the frame gives limbs

extra movement, strength and endurance.

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An overview of the exoskeleton programs in different countries is

covered ahead12. There can be full body exoskeletons such as Human

Universal Load Carrier (HULC) or lower body exoskeletons only as

shown below.

Fig. 7 - US Army Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS) Project

(Exoskeleton)

(Image Source: https://www.slashgear.com/u-s-militarys-talos-project-tapped-hollywood-

designer-06336534/)

Fig. 8 - Left: HULC – Human Universal Load Carrier, Ekso Bionics & Lockheed

Martin Below: DARPA Warrior Web Exosuit

(Image Source: https://exoskeletonreport.com/2016/07/military-exoskeletons)

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Three more exoskeleton varieties are elucidated, namely, stationary,

passive & energy scavenging exoskeletons. Similarly, Russia too is not

far behind in this race. Life- saving elements are seen in the Russian

Ratnik-3 exoskeleton from Russian weapons maker TsNiiTochMash.

The suit is comprised of ve subsystems: life support, command and

communication, engaging, protecting, and energy saving. (Fig. 9)

The challenges faced, while designing exoskeletons are varied ranging

from load carrying capacity to the range of weapons to be carried.

Associated equipment is another factor which is further compounded by

the terrain of employment. Degree of movement (freedom) as well as

being able to incorporate the technical maturity & intended use all add

on to the complexity array while designing such a system.13 However,

the day is not far when ‘iron man’ turns into a reality & is not restricted

to a sci- thriller.

Fig. 9 - Ratnik-3 Russian Exoskeleton

(Image Source: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2018/08/russia-us-are-military-

exoskeleton-race/150939/)

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Quantum Computing

The most talked about technology after AI is probably the eld of

Quantum Computing which has far reaching effect on communication

& cryptography. Use cases as predicted by IBM have been divided into

three horizons viz.,

yHorizon 1: Applications in the next few years

yHorizon 2: After stable but not optimally working quantum

computers

yHorizon 3: Beyond 15 years

Fig. 10 – Quantum Technologies - Horizons

(Image Source: IBM, available at https://research.aimultiple.com/quantum-computing-

applications/)

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Robotics

The scepticism involving having to work with AI/ Robots as part of the

ghting squad can no longer be considered as a dream or work of ction.

A study has been carried out which lists out only the requirements for

such units, but also scrutinises the after-action reports to serve as an

inspiration fuelling further development.14 Several R&D projects are

also in the pipeline for establishing superior ISTAR capabilities.15 Taking

into account that future battleeld will shift to the urban environment,

study carried out reveals the tactical & technical requirements for such

unmanned ground vehicles.16 (Fig. 11)

Fig. 11 - Tactical & Technical Requirements of Unmanned Ground Vehicles

(Image Source: Operational and Technical Requirements.” National Research Council.

2002. Technology Development for Army Unmanned Ground Vehicles. Washington, DC: The

National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10592)

Having seen some of the more pervasive disruptive technologies, let us

take a scan of the developments made by leading nations such as USA,

Russia, China & the EU.

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Comparative Reports on USA, Russia, China & European Defence

Agency

A Congressional Research Service report17 brings out the following

pertinent aspects about emerging disruptive military technologies in the

USA, Russia & China: -

Articial intelligence - To be further divided into two categories -

General AI & Narrow AI. General AI will perform a broad range of

tasks while narrow AI will focus on specic tasks for which it has been

trained & developed. Narrow AI has been introduced in the military

domain with specic use cases like logistics, Intelligence Surveillance

& Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, cyber operations, Command &

control etc. AI algorithms, however, have a major drawback & that is

in terms of training the algorithm. A wrongly/ poorly trained algorithm

can yield catastrophic results.

China’s 2017 Next Generation AI Development Plan describes AI as a

strategic technology & China plans to have no holds barred approach

by the commercial companies, research laboratories, military & the

Government. China too has forayed into the eld of swarm technologies

& is developing a suite of AI weapons for cyber operations.

Despite Putin emphasising the role of AI, Russia lags signicantly with

respect to USA & China.

Disruptive technologies listed by the European Defence Agency (EDA)

can be divided (based on Capability Development Plan

which was

initiated in 2008) as Short term: maturity to be reached within the next

5 years, Short to medium term: maturity to be reached between 5-10

years, Medium term: maturity to be reached between 10-15 years,

Medium to long term: maturity to be reached between 15-20 years &

iv The European Defence Agency’s work in the Research & Technology domain is in line with the Agency’s mission

tosupportMember Statesintheir eortstoimprovedefencecapabilities.EDAorganisesits R&Tprioritiesin

dierentCapability Technology Areas (CapTechs), which are networking fora for experts from government,

industry,smallandmediumenterprises(SME)andacademia,moderatedbyEDA.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Long term: maturity anticipated after 20 years. The various capability

based groups where focus has been emphasised is elucidated below.

(Fig.12)

EDU Plan - Aim at joint investment programmes for development.

Deep learning programme has been launched by the Radar Capability

Technical Group. Also, Communication & Information systems group

with Modelling & Simulation Group have also launched there AI based

programmes.

Fig. 12 - EDA Capability Groups

(Image Source: https://www.eda.europa.eu/webzine/issue14/cover-story/disruptive-defence-

innovations-ahead)

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) - An unconventional

name given to weapons, Lethal autonomous weapon systems

(LAWS) are a special class of weapon systems that use sensor suites

and computer algorithms to independently identify a target and employ

an on board weapon system to engage and destroy the target without

manual human control of the system. It is disruptive in the sense that

it will be employed at various places where traditional systems cannot

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operate in degraded or denied environments. As we will see below, the

differing denitions adopted by various nations have the ethical angle

also to consider.

USA - Department of Defence denes LAWS or ‘Man- Out- Of - the- Loop’

systems as “class of weapon systems capable of both independently

identifying a target and employing an onboard weapon to engage and

destroy the target without manual human control”.v

Russia - For Russia, LAWS could “ensure the increased accuracy of

weapon guidance on military targets, while contributing to lower rate of

unintentional strikes against civilians and civilian targets.”vi

China - China has no prohibition on the development of LAWS, which

it has characterized as weapons that exhibit—at a minimum—ve

attributes: lethality, autonomy, impossibility for termination, indiscriminate

effect & lastly, evolution on the y (continuous adaptation).vii

Hypersonic Weapons - Namely two varieties, Hypersonic glide

vehiclesviii & Hypersonic cruise missiles.ix US Navy’s Conventional

Prompt Strike Program is spearheading the development with a budget

allocation of nearly $3.2 billion for hypersonic research.

China has tested the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle at least nine

times since 2014. Reports have identied the range of the DF-ZF as

approximately 1,200 miles and have stated that it may be capable of

performing evasive manoeuvres during ight.x

v ReportofGroupofGovernmentalExpertsoftheHighContractingPartiestotheConventiononProhibitionsor

RestrictionsontheUseofCertainConventionalWeaponsWhichMayBeDeemedtoBeExcessivelyInjuriousor

toHaveIndiscriminateEects.23October2018.

viibid(CCW/GGE.1/2018/WP.6R)

viiibid(CCW/GGE.1/2018/WP.7P)

viiiHypersonicglidevehicles(HGV)arelaunchedfromarocketbeforeglidingtoatarget

ix Hypersonic cruise missiles are powered by high-speed, air-breathing engines, or “scramjets,” after acquiring

their target

x “GlidingmissilesthatyfasterthanMach5arecoming,”TheEconomist,April6,2019,https://www.economist.

com/science-and-technology/2019/04/06/gliding-missiles-that-y-faster-than-mach-5-arecoming

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Russia’s programmes include the Avangard and the 3M22 Tsirkon (or

Zircon). Avangard is a hypersonic glide vehicle launched from an ICBM,

giving it extended ranges.xi

EDA is planning to acquire a hypersonic missile by 2025.

Directed Energy Weapons - Weapons using concentrated

electromagnetic (EM) energy rather than kinetic projectiles can be safely

said to be directed energy. The Navy plans to deploy its 60-kW laser,

HELIOSxii, aboard the USS Preble in 2021, while the Army plans to eld

its rst “combat relevant” laser—the 50-kW Directed Energy Mobile Short-

Range Air Defense Systemxiii—on Stryker ghting vehicles in FY2022.

China has reportedly developed a 30-kilowatt road-mobile DE system,

LW-30xiv, designed to engage unmanned aerial vehicles and precision-

guided weapons. Based on the inputs of the US Defence Intelligence

Agency, China plans to develop direct energy weapons against low

earth orbit sensors to tilt the balance in its favour in the Indo-Pacic.

Russia has elded the Persevet ground based weapon systemxv on

the similar lines as that of China.

The EDA selected in August 2019 the winning industry team consisting of

European missile specialist, Italian companies CETENA and Leonardo,

French companies CILAS and Naval group and TNO, the Netherlands

Organisation for applied scientic research. MBDA UK alongside its

partners (including Leonardo) is working on the DRAGONFIRExvi. Also

known as the Laser Directed Energy Weapon (LDEW). MBDA France

xi“Firstregiment of Avangardhypersonic missile systemsgoeson combatdutyin Russia,”TASS,December 27,

2019,https://tass.com/defense/1104297.

xii https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/rms/documents/directed-energy/HELIOS_

Infographic_FINAL.pdf?_ga=2.39690019.1834033795.1607746307-1313878.1607746307

xiii https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/08/01/northrop-and-raytheon-to-compete-to-build-laser-weapon-

for-short-range-air-defense/

xiv https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/laser.htm

xv https://militaryleak.com/2018/12/18/russia-deploys-new-peresvet-ground-based-laser-weapon/ & https://

www.thespacereview.com/article/3967/1

xvi https://www.mbda-systems.com/press-releases/dragonre-laser-turret-unveiled-dsei-2017/

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has also opened a new laser testing facility in to test the effects of lasers

on materials and to specify future laser weapons for military customers.

Developments are also in progress for laser weapons atop naval vessels

such as K130 corvette.

Biotechnology - Plans to leverage life sciences for technological

applications encompasses the efforts to use (arm/ weaponize) bio-

agents as a disruptive technology. Trump administration has released

the National Biodefence Strategyxvii which outlines how the DoD can

effectively harness the power of bio-tech weapons to respond to biological

threats. DARPA is already running a few programs on leveraging this

technology.

China has been one of the rst countries to use CRISPRxviii on humans

for gene editing.

Russia released its BIO2020 documentxix to highlight its policy towards

use of bio-tech, although it lags behind both USA & China in this territory.

As for the EDA, Next Generation Sequencing - High-throughput

DNA sequencing against bio-agents & EBLN (European Biodefence

Laboratory Network) are programmes under development.

Quantum Technology - Quantum physics & Quantum technology are

poised to be one of the most state of the art ground breaking technologies.

Military applications include communications, cryptography, radar

systems etc. US has taken the lead in quantum sensing technologies,

however, encryption & communications are in the development phases.

“In September 2018, the United States published its National Strategic

Overview for Quantum Information Science, which dened quantum

science as ‘leveraging quantum mechanics to enhance the fundamental

xvii https://www.kff.org/news-summary/trump-administration-releases-new-national-biodefense-strategy-

signals-continuation-of-global-health-security-agenda/

xviiihttps://www.livescience.com/58790-crispr-explained.html

xix http://bio-economy.ru/upload/BIO2020%20(eng)%20-%20short.pdf

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

accuracy of measurements and/or enabling new regimes or modalities

for sensors and measurement’.”18

China has been an early leader in quantum research and development.

“In 2016, Beijing launched the world’s rst quantum satellite, which

teleported a photon to Earth in 2017. The Micius satellite has now

successfully completed QKD from orbit to ground stations in Xinglong,

China, and Graz, Austria. In 2017, China also established the rst long-

distance, terrestrial quantum-communication link between Beijing and

Shanghai.”19 The planned National Laboratory for Quantum Information

Sciences in Hefei, Anhui province, will lead the nation’s drive for quantum

computing and sensing. China’s National Science & Technology

Innovation Program highlights the development of this novel technology

as a key research area & has given it top most priority.

Despite the Quantum technology Roadmap of Russia, it is still behind

USA & China in this sphere.

European nations are also investing substantially and making signicant

advances. The European Commission’s quantum-technologies agship

programme will be a large-scale research initiative over a ten-year

period. It is intended to focus on four main areas of quantum technology:

communication, computation, simulation and sensing.

OTHER EMERGING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Certain other technology breakthroughs which are making waves

have also been collated in this brief (Simultaneously, one has to

remember the subtle difference between transformative & disruptive

technology - disruption which refers to a radical change and even

dissolution of traditional/ established processes and models, while

transformation which is rather continuous process of change).20

Software as a Service (SaaS) along with egde computing are the driving

forces for Battleeld IoT. This will pose a severe security challenge as all the

devices & equipment will seem to be connected in a highly complex web.

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Augmented analytics coupled with AI & machine learning (ML) will be

the basis of decision support systems. Predictive analytics & Big data

techniques will thus serve as elements revolutionising the way data is

collated &interpreted.

Microwave Photonics - MWP technology, is suited for applications such

as generation of very stable multi-band radiofrequency (RF) sources up

to millimetre frequencies with low phase noise, precise wideband RF

signal detection and digitisation, wideband beam steering of RF signals

in phased array antennas, tunable RF lters and stable clock and signal

distribution in networks.

Neuro-electronics - Interfacing the brain neurons with components

which possibilities for new technological capabilities that could have

signicant impact on both civilian and military applications, i.e. it can offer

novel treatments for neurological diseases & treatment for battleeld

trauma, including paralysis, loss of limbs or brain injury.

Smart Textiles including textile antennae are being developed to seek

improved camouage & concealment features while at the same time

deriving methods to improve communication.

Hyper enabled Operators along with bionic implants is also a widely

being researched eld to enhance the efciency of the war-ghter on

the battleeld.

The futuristic technologies that are catching the attention of leading

groups in the United States are aimed at Space warfare, communication

technology, missile defence system as well as alternative to GPS.

While edge computing & cloud networks are paving the way for

communication technology, Anti-satellite weapons as well as using

Earth’s magnetic eld for guidance in case of GPS failure are also

being simultaneously developed.2122

ETHICS OF TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION & USAGE

Before we move onto the crystal gazing for India, there is a need to

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

address the concerns over the ethical use of such disruptive technology.

With such rampant technological advances & futuristic scope, there

also arises a question about the ethics to deal with & implement such

disruptive technology. Disruption has & will alter the way man interacts

with society at large & how soldiers ght.

Dolly, the ewe, was the rst mammal to have been successfully cloned

from an adult cell. She is regarded as a major breakthrough in clone

technology. In 2004, a human embryo was also cloned. However, the

ethics of playing around with ‘God’s creation’ cannot be undermined.

Concerns regarding the medical and social side effects of human

enhancement technologies have been put out in public domain.

Despite articial intelligence’s (AI) potential for improved targeting to reduce

collateral harm, the 2019 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize

, among many

others, have called for a ban on research on machines that can decide

to take a human life. The dual-use nature of cyber technologies raises

concerns about the disruptive effect that an adversary’s cyber operations

can have on civilian life, something that could escalate into a very real war.

Measures have to be instituted to reach a trade-off between the benets

(read deterrence) accrued & the risks involved in the use of such face

changing technology. Aggressor nations have to be isolated & convinced

against the use of such technology & denitely have to be avoided in the

hands of terror groups/ anti-national forces.

One has to always remember that there exists a very complex & ne

balance between the society & military. Also, society is affected in a

multitude of ways by the technology acquired & used by military.

Ultimately one has to keep in mind the fact that a hostile act as perceived

by a nation denitely merits a response, but, not ‘any’ response.

“Einstein was right: The development of the atomic bomb, and I would

argue any disruptive technology, should be conditioned on whether it

xx https://apnews.com/article/0c99bd564d5f4cc585eb861adb20d28c

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avoids a disadvantage for one’s side that an adversary would likely be

able to exploit.”23

Prima facie, the development of technology, the one that gives an edge

& is of utmost national security needs to be developed. However, the

moral compass should guide the forces while using it. It is imperative

that this concept is not lost sight of.

CRYSTAL GAZING THE INDIAN SCENARIO: RECOMMENDATIONS

& WAY FORWARD

None of the technologies discussed above, in isolation, are ever going

to tilt the balance in a particular fashion. However, in the backdrop

of increased drone incursions on the Line of Control, the example of

the ARAMCO attack by drone swarms & the way we want to project

India as a regional power, give credence to the fact that the Indian

Defence preparedness needs to participate in a big way to nurture

these technologies.24 The Prime Minister’s focus towards Make-in-

India (Atmanirbhar) has denitely provided the much need vigour to the

MSMEs & Start-ups.

Being a strong nation when it comes to software development, areas of

expertise such as AI can be used massively to our advantage. Similar

is the case with hypersonic weapons (read Brahmos-II & HSTDV).

However, in the eld of Quantum physics, we are yet to take a substantial

leap forward, although DRDO has demonstrated the communication

between two laboratoriesxxi. Equipping the future infantry soldier has

also not seen any signicant gains.25

The competitive edge against China is widening. Hence a multi- pronged

strategy is necessary to thwart any misadventures against us & maintain

a credible deterrent posture.26 The way operations are being conducted

today & will be in times to come has been completely shaken by the

xxi https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/drdo-successfully-demonstrates-quantum-communication-

between-two-labs/articleshow/79644952.cms

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

plethora of development in the technology ecosystem world over. A

broad-spectrum term Disruption in Military affairs (DMA) has also been

discussed in various fora.27 An important aspect brought to light is the

fact of getting over the organisational inertia & steadily move towards

achieving transformation in a graduated manner.

Nurturing such technologies & giving rise to knowledge & technology

incubators is the need of the hour. The boundaries between MSMEs,

industry & Defence technology institutes has to blur, mix & nally converge

towards the nal aim of acquiring the tech & thereafter implementing it.

It is this deadly cocktail which will lead to India maintaining its global

competitive edge. Some initiatives are already in place & available as

open source data is covered subsequently.

AI for All - Niti Aayog

With a view to provide impetus to this ubiquitous eld, Niti Aayog, India

published its National Strategy for AI in 2018. Largely driven around

the use of this technology for commercial purposes, this document

highlights the importance of this technology & how the society can benet

at large.28 The defence-oriented use cases are under development under

the umbrella of IIsT, DPSUs such as DRDO, to name a few. However,

we are still at as nascent stage when compared with big wigs such as

China & USA. A positive development is to see the various AI based

projects that have been elded as Defence challenges in schemes such

as Innovation for Defence Excellence (iDEX).

Emphasis on Startups & Defence Innovation

We need to resuscitate the ailing R&D industry & provide a de novo look

towards the Public -Private- Partnership (PPP) as well as scal policies

especially in the case of disruptive technologies as highlighted. iDEX

has come up in a big way under the Defence Innovation Organisation.

There is a need to have the Defence forces understanding the concept

of ‘Fail Fast, Recover Faster’ in the technology domain.

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Israeli Defence Ecosystem is worth emulation. Unit 820029, which

provides cybersecurity and intelligence services to the IDF and whose

alumni have launched so many startups, that the unit is nicknamed

“the start-up machine”. Many defence startups, led by the veterans of

these units have thrived and innovated in the Israeli defence ecosystem.

Examples include Team830, Elbit Systems31, mPrest32 etc. Yozma &

Lotem like programs need to be the mainstay to garner such technology

breakthroughs.

Issues Plaguing the Present Set Up- We are gradually on our way

to developing disruptive technology in defence sector. Although, it has

been a late call, we are on our way to recovery. Certain issues which still

need a revisit include the following: -

• Getting rid of the One-upmanship syndrome - One has to come

to think of innovations as a collaborative effort rather than a show

put up by a single individual or organisation. This has resulted in

parallel developments in isolation leading to wastage of effort &

resources. Need is to develop military establishments or training

institutes as incubators of such technology in collaboration with

industry. Facilities under the Atal Innovation Mission need to be

established in military hubs like Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Manesar

which afford access to electronics industry readily. This will

automatically foster the growth required in the innovation sector.

Competitions at University Level, for example the NASA Space

apps challenge, DARPA organised competitions & the like need to

be held with higher frequency to tap the talent at a nascent stage.

• Development of a centralised forum for exchange of ideas

- brainstorm with a mix of academia, scientists, production

agencies to reach a nished product. Far too many verticals exist

who are duplicating the same project, violating the economy of

effort. There is denitely a need for cross pollination & breaking

of water tight compartments/ Silos.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

• Fast Tracking of Projects is a must. It is well appreciated

that harnessing technology & there after developing it for use is

not easy & incurs time delay. However, far too long a gestation

period leads to the technology getting outdated, further leading

to a change in the requirements of the nished product which

inturn leads to addition/ deletion of technology-oriented outcome.

Hence, a lose-lose situation for both, the developer as well as

end-user. There after it is no point passing the buck to either of

the involved parties.

• Revitalise DPSUs - Instead of waiting for requirements from

the users, why cannot the agencies develop a nished product

& offer to the user? Further ne tuning of the product can take

part as part of successive iterations. After all, these organisations

too, are privy to what the world scene looks like. Just to cite an

example, does Apple ask what it needs to include in its iphone

range? Denitely NOT. It analyses the market sentiment, scans

the environment for contemporary requirements & tries to offer it

at a budget. Presently our system is too customer requirement

driven.

• Indian National Defence University (INDU) - There is a need to

encourage Think tank institutes. Also, transform ideas from drawing

board to realisation on ground. The INDU should serve as the

nerve centre for doctrines, research, sponsorship for candidates

being trained abroad, be a congregation of academicians,

engineers, scientists resulting in a rapid development - may serve

as Military R&D foundation.

• Funding Issues - There is a requirement to fast track the paper

work, release of funds so that the projects can start. A thorough

understanding while the investments are high is required,

however not at the cost of losing out on any time required for the

technology to bloom.

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• Issues of IPR & Technology Management, personnel/ Domain

Expertise/ Knowledge Management & Harnessing technology

while initiatives to stop brain-drain are also equally important.

CONCLUSION

Sustaining & disruptive innovations form an important part of the military

innovation concepts. Sustaining innovations reinforce the existing

technologies while the disruptive innovations cause the technologies to

change & transform to such an extent that the original form lends itself

to perish. The latter is caused by the radical use of many converged

technologies resulting in an ultimate change in the very structure (core)

of the organisation. It is also governed by the fact of how the technology

is actually usd on ground.33

Disruptive technologies cannot be considered as a replacement for

present day technologies. All the technologies discussed come with

their own pros & cons. Most of these technologies being dual-use

technologies will require a higher level of discretion while weaponizing

them.34 Technology is a game changer - a fundamental in the

transformative change more so in the domain of defence industry where

its impact is most profound. The nature of future conicts will not be

based upon the factor of asymmetry alone, but in the manner in which

these disruptive technologies will be exploited to gain a decisive edge

over the adversary. The technology trends discussed in this report will

surely have impact on the future of warfare. Several of the discussed

technologies will permit enhanced situational awareness of decision

makers as also increased engagement range, precision, speed and

faster decision cycles. The dynamics of the battlespace in times to

come will dictate the rapid birth & death of technologies which will

metamorphose the ways wars have been fought so far.

Throughouthumanhistory,wehavebeendependentonmachinestosurvive.

Fate,itseems,isnotwithoutasenseofirony.

-DialoguebythecharacterMorpheus,fromthe1999releasedHollywoodmovie

‘TheMatrix’.

DISRUPTIVE DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY KALEIDOSCOPE

& A WAY AHEAD FOR ATMANIRBHAR BHARAT

Endnotes:

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2 “DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY | Meaning in The Cambridge English Dictionary”.

2020. Dictionary.Cambridge.Org. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/disruptive-

technology. [Accessed 07 Oct 2020].

3 A. Kaspersen, E. Eide and P. Shetler-Jones, “10 trends for the future of warfare”, World

Economic Forum, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/the- 4th-

industrial-revolution-and-international-security/. [Accessed: 16- Oct- 2020].

4 Michael Raska, “Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative

Paths and Patterns” in PRISM, 8, 3, 2020, 64-81.

5 M. O’Hanlon, Technological change and the future of warfare. New Delhi: Manas

Publications, 2005.

6 Michael E. O’Hanlon, “A Retrospective on the So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, 2000-

2020,” (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2018), https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-

retrospective-on-the-so-called-revolution-inmilitary-affairs-2000-2020.

7 Michael E. O’Hanlon, “Forecasting Change in Military Technology, 2020-2040,” (Washington,

DC: Brookings Institution, 2020), https://www.brookings.edu/research/forecasting-change-in

military-technology-2020-2040.

8 S. Brimley, B. FitzGerald and K. Sayler, “Game Changers Disruptive Technology and

U.S. Defense Strategy”, 2013. Available: https://www.les.ethz.ch/isn/170630/CNAS_

Gamechangers_Brimley FitzGeraldSayler_0.pdf. [Accessed 12 October 2020].

9 T. Nurkin and S. Rodriguez, “A Candle in the Dark: US National Security Strategy for Articial

Intelligence”, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy & Security, Washington, DC,

2019.

10 Georgopoulos, G. and Nurkin, T., 2020. The Current State Of AI In Defence And Security.

[online] Defence IQ. Available at: <https://www.defenceiq.com/defence- technology/

whitepapers/ the-current-state-of-ai-in-defence-and-security> [Accessed 4 October 2020].

11 P. Tucker, “This Formula Predicts Soldier Firepower in 2050”, Defense One, 2019. [Online].

Available: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/09/formula-predicts-soldier-

repower-2050/159931/. [Accessed: 11- Oct- 2020].

12 B. Marinov, “19 Military Exoskeletons into 5 Categories”, Exoskeleton Report, 2016. [Online].

Available: https://exoskeletonreport.com/2016/07/military-exoskeletons/. [Accessed: 19- Oct-

2020].

13 Harrison P. Crowell, Joon-Hyuk Park, Courtney A. Haynes, Jennifer M. Neugebauer & Angela

C. Boynton (2019) Design, Evaluation, and Research Challenges Relevant to Exoskeletons

and Exosuits: A 26-Year Perspective From the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, IISE

Transactions on Occupational Ergonomics and Human Factors, 7:3-4, 199-

212, DOI: 10.1080/24725838.2018.1563571

14 J. Matejka, “Robot as a Member of Combat Unit A Utopia or Reality for Ground

Forces?”, Advances in Military Technology, vol. 15, no. 1, 2020. Available: 10.3849/aimt.01332

[Accessed 11 October 2020].

15 Buřita, Hrabovský, Novák and Pohanka, “Systems Integration in Military

Environment”, Advances in Military Technology, vol. 15, no. 1, 2020. Available:10.3849/

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aimt.01334 [Accessed 28 October 2020].

16 Bużantowicz and Turek, “Autonomous Combat Support Vehicles in Urban Operations:

Tactical and Technical Determinants”, Advances in Military Technology, vol. 15, no. 1, 2020.

Available: 10.3849/aimt.01350 [Accessed 28 October 2020].

17 K. Sayler, “Emerging Military Technologies: Background and Issues for Congress.”, USNI - US

Naval Institute, 2020.

18 “Quantum Computing and Defence.” IISS, 2019, www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/

the-military-balance-2019/quantum-computing-and-defence.

19 Ibid

20 H. Andas, “Emerging technology trends for defence and security”, Norwegian Defence

Research Establishment (FFI), 2020.

21 Tucker and M. Baksh, Emerging Defense Technologies. Defense One, 2020.

22 R. Sammon, “8 Amazing New Military Technologies”, Kiplinger.com, 2016. [Online]. Available:

https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/t057-s010-amazing-military-technologies/ index.

html. [Accessed: 09- Oct- 2020].

23 C. Pfaff, “The Ethics of Acquiring Disruptive Military Technologies - Texas National Security

Review”, Texas National Security Review, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://tnsr.org/2020/01/

the-ethics-of-acquiring-disruptive-military-technologies/. [Accessed: 08- Oct- 2020].

24 Harsh Pant, Mann, “Disruptive technologies in the Indian military matrix | ORF”, ORF, 2020.

[Online]. Available: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/disruptive-technologies-in-the-

indian-military-matrix-72494/. [Accessed: 11- Oct- 2020].

25 R. Kumar, “Equipping Futuristic Infantry Soldier”, Defproac.com. [Online]. Available: https://

defproac.com/?p=9770. [Accessed: 18- Oct- 2020].

26 J. Singh, “Disruptive Technologies and India’s Military Modernisation”, Vindia.org.

[Online]. Available: https://www.vindia.org/sites/default/les/national-security-vol-2-

issue-2-essay-Jpsingh.pdf. [Accessed: 03- Oct- 2020].

27 Lt Gen PR Shankar (Retd),”Disruption in Military Affairs (DMA): A Technology Centric

Approach”, Bharat Shakti, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://bharatshakti.in/disruption-in-military-

affairs-dma-a-technology-centric-approach/. [Accessed: 17- Oct- 2020].

28 Niti.gov.in, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/les/document_publication/

NationalStrategy-for-AI-Discussion-Paper.pdf. [Accessed: 19- Oct- 2020].

29 “Unit 8200,” 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbehar/2016/05/11/inside-israels-secret-

startupmachine/#46a913301a51.

30 “Team8,” 2018, https://www.team8.vc/.

31 “Elbit Systems,” 2018, http://elbitsystems.com/.

32 “mPrest,” 2018, https://www.mprest.com/. 24“Indegy,” 2018, https://www.indegy.com/company/

33 A. Grissom, “The future of military innovation studies”, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 29, no.

5, pp. 905-934, 2006. Available: 10.1080/01402390600901067 [Accessed 13 October

2020].

34 A. Lele, Disruptive technologies for the militaries and security. Singapore: Springer, 2019.