Article

Índice UAB de actividad turística 2014. Coyuntura, previsiones de demanda turística para Cataluña y España y análisis del turismo del juego.

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Abstract

El estudio que presentamos está estructurado en cuatro partes: 1. Análisis de la coyuntura turística y económica del ejercicio 2013 2. Previsiones del Índice UAB para el año 2014 para Cataluña 3. Predicciones de demanda turística para toda España en el ejercicio 2014 4. Estudio del turismo del juego en Cataluña En la misma línea de años anteriores, la primera parte del informe realiza un análisis de la coyuntura, la segunda versa sobre las predicciones turísticas para Cataluña, -capítulo clave que da pie al Índice UAB-, una tercera parte proyecta para España los indicadores turísticos más relevantes con novedades destacadas, y la cuarta y última contiene un monográfico sobre el turismo del juego en Cataluña, en consonancia con la actualidad del proyecto Barcelona World y de otros macrocomplejos que no han tenido continuidad o plasmación. En esta edición del Índice UAB, adicionalmente y como novedad, se ha efectuado un análisis más profundo de los mercados emisores, todo ello con el objeto de disponer de mayor conocimiento que nos ha de permitir mejorar nuestro marco global de previsiones. El estudio monográfico que el Índice UAB presenta anualmente y que en esta edición versa sobre el turismo del juego tiene un gran valor y representa un análisis técnico de esta modalidad temática, que huye de los estudios superficiales partidistas e ideológicos, neutraliza los activismos sistemáticos y elimina los efectos de las expectativas y los prejuicios, así como los apriorismos tan frecuentes e interesados en numerosos aspectos, tanto a favor como en contra. Es un análisis científico de un debate turístico, económico y social que deberemos realizar, con sus luces y sus sombras. Una economía potente y sana no puede prescindir del sector turismo, depende de su desarrollo y evolución. Entre los productos y servicios turísticos del país destaca la organización y la celebración de eventos y este hecho relaciona y genera todo tipo de turismos. El juego y los eventos asociados ofrecen muchas posibilidades a diversas modalidades de turismo: de negocios, de compras, de parques temáticos, gastronómico, cultural y de espectáculos, así como desde la perspectiva de todos los atractivos y recursos de un territorio y del ocio en general. El énfasis que se pone en uno y otro, así como la combinación de productos en un resort, incluyendo el propio alojamiento, puede modular la presencia del juego y configurar una experiencia única, tomando así distancia del llamado turismo de casinos. En un ámbito muy diferente pero igualmente importante para el estudio que nos ocupa, debe destacarse el fuerte crecimiento que se augura para el turismo internacional en el año 2014, según la Organización Mundial del Turismo (OMT): entre un 4% y un 5%, similar al del año 2013, que finalmente fue del 5%. Este avance anual proyectado se compone de tasas entre el 5% y el 6% en Asia y el Pacífico, del 4% o 5% en África y del 3% al 4% en América. Para Europa y Oriente Medio los porcentajes estimados se moverán en tramos algo inferiores de aumento, entre el 2 % y el 3%. En 2014 todo indica que van a persistir en África los problemas políticos, civiles y religiosos que restarán posibilidades de crecimiento en buena parte de los países del área llamada de la primavera árabe. Los vectores de crecimiento, las tendencias y las perspectivas muestran el desplazamiento del turismo de los países desarrollados hacia las naciones en desarrollo y emergentes, dado el nivel de partida y el empuje y la fuerza con que se mueven las economías de estas últimas. En cuanto al sector turístico catalán, en el 2014 podría registrar unos resultados quizás algo mejores que los del año anterior, explicados por un favorable comportamiento del turismo extranjero, -sustentado en una mayor presencia de los mercados emergentes y en una leve ampliación de los mercados europeos tradicionales-, además de la ansiada recuperación del cliente español, debido a la mejora en la situación económica del país en determinados ámbitos, si bien pequeña todavía. Sin duda, el 2014 podría ser otro buen año en líneas generales para Cataluña en el terreno turístico. El desafío, pues, es asegurar que este crecimiento se pueda mantener durante muchos años acometiendo las políticas necesarias. Se augura también un buen 2014 para el sector turístico español, alargándose la expansión del anterior como consecuencia del aumento del turismo de los mercados emergentes, del mantenimiento de los mercados maduros , de los problemas que persistirán en los países competidores del Mediterráneo con su efecto trasvase y refugio y un crecimiento mínimo, esperable, del turismo interno. Los indicadores podrían mostrar un incremento del 3% en número de pernoctaciones hoteleras y un alza del 7% en volumen de gasto turístico, en su componente extranjero. España se apuntó en 2013 un registro del 5,6% de crecimiento en número de turistas, por encima del anotado a nivel mundial, ante un 5% de aumento que podría darse en el 2014.

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