Article
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.

Abstract

Wenzel’s response to Fergnani (2022) is a laudable effort to advance the study of corporate foresight practices and processes, an important yet underinvestigated area of research in management and strategy scholarship. Wenzel’s arguments encourage us to reflect not only on the arguments made by Fergnani (2022) but also on the core tenets of the futures studies and foresight literature1—tenets that could be misapprehended. Such reflection opens opportunities to clarify the construct of corporate foresight and further integrate it with existing management and strategy scholarship, which can encourage conceptual and empirical research in this domain. This rejoinder elaborates on these points in more detail as follows.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.

... These may stand upon different ontoepistemological foundations. The contention between different typologies of theories and thus between different underlying philosophies of science through which futures and foresight interventions, capabilities, and methods can be conceptualized will incentivize more scientists to investigate these phenomena and thus propel the field even further in the academic establishment (Fergnani, 2021b). ...
... This being said, the typology of theory Cairns espouses should not be shunned. As mentioned, it is the epistemological contention between different typologies of theory that will enhance our conceptualizations and thus propel the field further in academia (Fergnani, 2021b). For instance, there exist an active debate on whether power (in the postmodernist sense), mentioned by Cairns (this issue), is the most prominent or even the only factor affecting the conduct of inquiry (see Peterson, 2018), and our engagement in debates like this would guarantee our participation in the mainstream academic dialogue. ...
... This being said, although the above is true for certain variables, e.g., most notably firm performance, there are several dependent variables that can be readily assessed in the present or immediate future after scenario interventions are carried out (Fergnani, 2021b). ...
Article
Rejoinder to the 10 commentaries to the article: Fergnani, A., & Chermack, T. J. (2021). The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it. Futures and Foresight Science, e61. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.61
... We also want to highlight that these analyses and recommendations are not just about the prevention of specific events because that overemphasizes our capacity to control the future (Miller 2018). They are also meant to help us to be comfortable to navigate uncertainty and wild cards such as pandemics as they happen and to put in place organizational capabilities in the present that would allow us to do so in the future (Fergnani 2021a(Fergnani , 2021bMendoca et al. 2004). ...
Article
We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and termination. Concurrently, three social processes tend to be activated to cope with the pandemic: healthcare, political, and public awareness. This model is used to compare the social imaginary reflected in films with the current COVID-19 outbreak. The resemblance of the model and the current outbreak suggests that fictional pandemic films may still follow our collective understanding of the pandemic dynamics. Four scenarios are suggested as road maps for futures and foresight practice concerned with future pandemic outbreaks.
... 'Strategic Foresight' involves creating a series of different visions of the future and using these visions to develop new organisational strategies and decision tools [51,52]. Strategic Foresight is a blend of 'futures' work and firm oriented strategic management approaches [53,54]. The emphasis is on individual organisations, how they can anticipate and react to multiple emergent futures to remain competitive or achieve 'success' broadly defined [55]. ...
Article
Full-text available
This paper brings together socio-technical transitions theory with strategic foresight and human centred design. The aim is to bring in new methods for analysing the business model element of sustainability transitions. We propose a process for doing business model innovation work. Business models have become a key area of focus, particularly in the energy sector. Recent work shows how the development of new business models co-evolves with elements of the energy system, either driving technological innovation, changing user practices or placing pressure on the institutional or policy regime. At the same time, there is no recognised process for business model research aimed at transition management. It is time therefore to propose a more formalised and theoretically grounded approach to business model innovation work. We use this contribution to synthesise the lessons of a four-year research project centred on energy utility business models with industrial, commercial and government stakeholders. We describe the process adopted, and insights this process generated. We seek to establish this process in the literature, invite others to utilise it, adapt it and critique it.
Article
Full-text available
Recent studies have emphasized the need to merge the divergent streams of foresight and sensemaking and to empirically explore their mutual influences. Accordingly, this paper builds upon previous work to expand understanding of the relationship between foresight and sensemaking and its role in affecting cognitive group dynamics, especially during the early stage of the new product development (NPD) amidst technological changes and market shifts. We adopt a systematic coding procedure of our empirical data drawn upon a longitudinal study of an entire NPD project as it unfolded in real time and in situ from its early stages through to its market commercialisation. Thus, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it extends previous foresight-sensemaking research by illuminating for the first time the role of sensefacilitating, a new cognitive mechanism that enhances the gradual development of new collective future-oriented mental models. Second, it answers the call for further investigation on the impact of foresight and sensemaking in NPD by showing that the cross-fertilization of foresight and sensemaking enables the collective discovery and formal diffusion of user foresights, which in turn inform the development of meaningful and novel brand worlds early in the NPD process.
Article
Full-text available
Nobody knows what the future holds in store. How, then, should businesses prepare for the mind-boggling array of scenarios that might arise in the coming years? It turns out there are ways to reduce the risk of being mauled by the savage beast of the unexpected, as this intriguing article explains.
Article
Full-text available
The current conceptualization of dynamic capabilities entails a paradox, one that hampers the achievement of one of the framework’s main missions: While studies on dynamic capabilities claim to offer explanations of continuous, routine-based organizational change, their prevalent conceptualization of organizational routines is rather undynamic and less prone to change. Thus, we propose to draw on an alternative, practice-based understanding of organizational routines to unravel the “dynamics” of dynamic capabilities. The practice perspective captures and explains the internal dynamics of organizational routines and positions the performance of organizational routines as a source of both organizational stability and change. This perspective offers to deepen our understanding of the dynamics within dynamic capabilities as driver of routine-based organizational change. To foster a research agenda that advances our understanding of dynamic capabilities from a practice perspective on organizational routines, we provide onto-epistemological, theoretical, and methodological implications of such a “dynamic view” of dynamic capabilities.
Article
Full-text available
Even though organizational activities have always been future-oriented, actors’ fascination with the future is not a universal phenomenon of organizational life. Human experience of the future is a rather young product of modernity, in which actors discovered the indeterminacy of the future, as well as their abilities to ‘make’ and, in part, even control and de-problematize it through ever-more sophisticated planning practices. In this essay, we argue that actors have recently ‘rediscovered’ the future as a problematic, open-ended category in organizational life, one that they cannot delineate through planning practices alone. This, we suggest, has been produced through a pluralization of what we refer to as ‘future-making practices’, a set of practices through which actors produce and enact the future. Based on illustrations of the experienced problematic open-endedness of the future in prevalent discourses such as climate change, digital transformation and post-truth politics, we invite scholars to explore future-making practices as an important but under-appreciated organizational phenomenon.
Technical Report
Full-text available
This guide has been created for early adopters in the public sector or civil society who might commission participatory futures, perhaps due to their involvement with public engagement or strategy. We also hope the guide is of interest to senior figures in public sector or civil society organisations, futures practitioners and experts, civil society organisations and citizens. [...] We hope it is a first step to addressing the considerable imbalance between the capabilities of different institutions, such as technology companies and private consultancies, and citizens to think long term and shape the futures they want.
Book
Full-text available
The Persian Version of FRM Ver 3.0 that has been provided -translated and edited- by me in cooperation with some of my best colleagues under the supervision of Prof. Izadi by permission of dear Jerome. C. Glenn and dear Ted Gordon includes 5 volumes including 39 chapters that has been published in Iran. In the coming weeks it'll be freely released online on the millennium project website too. The hard copy is accessible in limited numbers for it's first publication in Iran.
Article
Full-text available
This article describes the origins and uses of a classroom and workshop activity called "The Polak Game" or "Where do you Stand?". Over a dozen years of use to date, the game has provided a user-friendly structure for facilitating quite far-reaching conversation among foresight students and clients. Duration is flexible, but typically runs 30-60 minutes. It represents an effective and accessible approach to introducing "images of the future" as a basic property of both cultures and individuals, and so to pave the way for more advanced tools and frameworks. The article is in two parts, covering the experiences of the two authors. First appearing in the Journal of Futures Studies, it was republished in the Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020: <researchgate.net/publication/341763663>.
Article
Full-text available
This report describes how the European Commission engaged in developing a serious game in order to engage stakeholders with foresight scenarios created to support the EU policy-making process. Four scenarios were created through a classic scenario building methodology (2X2 matrix), describing possible transitions towards a more sustainable future for the EU in 2035. These scenarios were used as a basis to design a serious game to help players engage in systemic thinking, discover and create alternative futures, and create novel engagements between stakeholders. The game was developed over a four month period and entailed running 10 prototyping sessions involving players from various services of the European Commission and other organizations (industry, civil society, academia, etc.). A system was developed to be able to harvest the stories created during the gaming sessions as a basis for de-briefing, further discussions and strategic analyses after the game. Ultimately, the game has demonstrated its usefulness and value for both players and organizers, and our reflections on the development process offer insights as to game design strategies and how educational outcomes and principles can be effectively mapped onto game mechanics.
Article
Full-text available
This article introduces the 'Sarkar Game', presents case studies, and offers insights from participants in role-playing the four types of power (worker, warrior, intellectual and capitalist). The Sarkar Game is used to help individuals and organisations better understand macrohistory and the structured shape of the future(s) as well as to audit the leadership style of their own organisations or institutions.
Article
Full-text available
The article describes the origins and process of Manoa scenario building. Manoa scenario building is designed to create narratives of alternative futures that maximize provocative but useful difference from the present. This stands in contrast to the 2X2 axes of uncertainty approach, which instead maximizes focus on a strategic question, which may leave strategists, planners, and decision-makers vulnerable to blind spots and surprises. The Manoa approach builds on impact cascades and systemic interconnections emerging from at least three contrasting emerging changes for each scenario.
Technical Report
Full-text available
The main contention of this paper is that the use of trends, be they familiar or not, well founded or not, is in most cases a bad way to think about the future. There are three fundamental reasons for being sceptical about using trends to engage in futures thinking.
Article
Full-text available
We explain why the line between dynamic and operational (or ordinary) capabilities is unavoidably blurry, draw implications for capabilities that promote economically important but seemingly gradual change, and provide recommendations for future research that takes these issues into account.
Article
Full-text available
Strategic foresight as a derived outcome of corporate foresight exercises has led to the dominant discourse on strategic foresight as an episodic intervention encompassing a proliferation of organizational foresight methodologies. We argue that such an approach is flawed, consigning strategic foresight to a narrow function in a planning perspective. To move the field into more fertile pastures for research, we draw on the practice theoretical lens to provide an alternative viewpoint on strategic foresight as a bundle of everyday organizing practices. In keeping with the practice approach to strategic foresight, we delineate strategic foresight as a continuous and contextual practice of ‘wayfinding’, that manifest in everyday situated organizing. We offer an integrating framework that contributes to the ongoing discussions about alternative approaches to theorizing strategic foresight.
Article
Full-text available
This essay explains and illustrates how the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies of the Political Science Department of the University of Hawaii at Manoa conceives of and uses "alternative futures". The design and conduct of a "futures visioning process," of which experiencing "four generic alternative futures" (continuation, collapse, discipline, transformation) and envisioning preferred futures are essential parts, is described in some detail.
Article
Full-text available
textlessptextgreaterThis paper examines the multiple scenario approach as an important corporate innovation in strategic planning. Using a participant/observer perspective, I examine how scenario planning tries to meet certain methodological, organizational and psychological challenges facing today's senior managers. Three prime characteristics are identified as setting the scenario approach apart from more traditional planning tools: (1) the script or narrative approach, (2) uncertainty across rather than within models, and (3) the decomposition of a complex future into discrete states. After exploring the intellectual roots of scenario planning, I examine such organizational aspects as the need for diversity of views and the importance of simplicity and manageability. Both benefits and obstacles to using scenarios in organizations are identified. Cognitive biases are examined as well, especially the well-known biases of overconfidence and the conjunction fallacy. Two experiments test the impact of scenarios on people's subjective confidence ranges. Another two experiments test the internal coherence of subjects' beliefs. The psychological benefit of scenario planning appears to lie in the exploitation of one set of biases (e.g., conjunction fallacies) to counteract another (such as overconfidence).
Article
We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self‐sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientific theory on futures and foresight practices and processes in organizations. Drawing from the tradition of management and organization sciences, we describe what scientific theory in the context of organizations is and is not, and how theory development contributes to the incremental progress of scientific fields. We then unpack the crux of the problem, deconstructing the resistance to scientific theory within our field into nine, closely related reasons. We offer solutions to the problem in the form of three sets of recommendations: for authors, journal editors, and practitioners. We conclude by responding to likely misunderstandings in advance.
Article
We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion. The archetypes in part overlap with and confirm previous research, and in part are novel. They all involve stresspoint critical conditions in the external environment. We explain why the six archetypes, as a foresight framework, is more transformational and nuanced than previously developed scenario archetypes frameworks, making it particularly suited to the current necessity to think the unthinkable more systematically. We explain how the six archetypes framework can be used as predetermined images of the future to create domain specific scenarios, making organizations more resilient to critical, disruptive futures. We finally present and discuss a case study of the application of the method to create scenarios of post-Covid-19 futures of work.
Article
This article introduces the construct of corporate foresight to a strategy and management scholars’ audience. Corporate foresight is a dynamic, firm-level capability that allows firms to evaluate future scenarios of the business environment, including systematic doomsday collapses. Corporate foresight is defined, situated in the broader epistemological underpinnings of futures studies, theoretically inscribed in the dynamic capabilities’ framework, distinguished from related constructs, and deconstructed in its main components. Its main antecedents and outcomes are elaborated, and further research directions are discussed. It is argued that corporate foresight is of fundamental relevance to strategy and management scholarship due to four reasons: (a) corporate foresight can integrate with, enrich, and expand the dynamic capabilities framework by considering an additional, underinvestigated, future-oriented firm capability; (b) the emergence of corporate foresight is an organizational phenomenon, closely aligned with the contingency theory of the firm; (c) corporate foresight can favorably affect important organizational outcomes including learning, creativity, innovation, and performance via a mechanism to create competitive advantage that has not been previously explored by strategy and management scholarship; and (d) further investigating corporate foresight from a strategy and management point of view opens a rich research agenda.
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights. Design/methodology/approach The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice. Findings The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes. Originality/value The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.
Book
Why do policies and strategies often fail, and what can be done about it? How can complexity be managed in cases where it cannot be reduced? The answers to these questions are anything but trivial, and can only be found by combining insights from complexity science, system dynamics, system theory and systems thinking. Rooted in the seminal works of Gregory Bateson, Jay Forrester, Donella Meadows, Peter Senge, W. Brian Arthur, John Sterman and Thomas Schelling, this book bridges the gap between rigorous science and real-life experience to explore the potential and limitations of leverage points in implementing policies and strategies. It also presents diagnostic tools to help recognize system archetypes, as well as the powerful language of stock and flow diagrams, which allows us to think in terms of circular causality. These tools are subsequently employed to thoroughly analyze particularly thorny problems such as global climate change, the tragedy of the commons, path dependence, diffusion of innovations, and exponential growth of inequality.
Chapter
All previous chapters point in the same direction: Social systems are insensitive to most managerial efforts to alter their behavior yet they do have a few sensitive influence points through which behavior can be changed. But even if behavior changes, such change is not necessarily the one managers and policymakers want to bring about. From the banal—“we need to increase revenues by 10% next year”—to the sophisticated, “we need to become more innovative” or “we need to stop climate change,” business and government lore is full of decisions that never materialize. Phil Rosenzweig (2007) analyzed how managers let themselves be deceived by simple recipes for success. Is the very idea that management and governance exists a myth? Are social systems really manageable?
Conference Paper
This paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and, more generally, the resource-based view of the firm. We argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development, strategic decision making, and alliancing. They are neither vague nor tautological. Although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence, they have significant commonalities across firms (popularly termed 'best practice'). This suggests that they are more homogeneous, fungible, equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed. In moderately dynamic markets, dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines. They are detailed, analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes. In contrast, in high-velocity markets, they are simple, highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes. Finally, well-known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities. In moderately dynamic markets, the evolutionary emphasis is on variation. In high-velocity markets, it is on selection. At the level of REV, we conclude that traditional REV misidentifies the locus of long-term competitive advantage in dynamic markers, overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage, and reaches a boundary condition in high-velocity markets. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
Article
This article works out the main characteristics of `practice theory', a type of social theory which has been sketched by such authors as Bourdieu, Giddens, Taylor, late Foucault and others. Practice theory is presented as a conceptual alternative to other forms of social and cultural theory, above all to culturalist mentalism, textualism and intersubjectivism. The article shows how practice theory and the three other cultural-theoretical vocabularies differ in their localization of the social and in their conceptualization of the body, mind, things, knowledge, discourse, structure/process and the agent.
Article
Integral futures (IF) has developed over several years to a point where it has emerged as a productive way of understanding futures studies (FS) itself and re-evaluating its role in the wider world. It is not merely a new ‘take’ on FS but has brought the field to a new stage of development with many practical consequences. For example, consulting, research, publishing, the design and implementation of training programs can now draw on a broader and deeper set of intellectual, practical and methodological resources than ever before. Similarly, with its new clarity regarding the individual and collective interior domains, IF profoundly affects the way people operate and changes the way in which the advanced skills and capabilities involved in strategic and social foresight are developed and used. Some of the reasons for these developments are explored here in a review of specific effects as shown by a sample of futures methods. The paper concludes with some brief suggestions about broader implications for the field as a whole.
Book
It is not clear that either the categories "given" to us by our senses, or those abstracted for us by the processes of scientific investigation, constitute the most "real" or even the most "useful" modes of apprehending the fundamental nature of being or experience. The categories offered by traditional myths and religious systems might play that role. Such systems of apprehension present the world as a place of constant moral striving, conducted against a background of interplay between the "divine forces" of order and chaos. "Order" is the natural category of all those phenomena whose manifestations and transformations are currently predictable. "Chaos" is the natural category of "potential" - the potential that emerges whenever an error in prediction occurs. The capacity for creative exploration - embodied in mythology in the form of the "ever-resurrecting hero" - serves as the mediator between these fundamental constituent elements of experience. Voluntary failure to engage in such exploration - that is, forfeit of identification with "the worldredeeming savior" - produces a chain of causally interrelated events whose inevitable endpoint is adoption of a rigid, ideology-predicated, totalitarian identity, and violent suppression of the eternally threatening other.
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to the study of the future. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes six foundational concepts (the used future, the disowned future, alternative futures, alignment, models of social change, and uses of the future), six questions (will, fear, missing, alternatives, wish, and next steps as related to the future) and six pillars (mapping, anticipating, timing, deepening, creating alternatives, and transforming), giving examples and case studies where appropriate. Findings In an increasingly complex and heterogeneous world, futures studies can help people to recover their agency, and help them to create the world in which they wish to live. Originality/value The paper integrates and builds on a variety of futures studies' concepts, ways of thinking and techniques and integrates them into a new approach.
Article
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the relationship between a particular epistemological perspective and foresight methodology. We draw on a body of social theory concerned with the way that meaning is produced and assimilated by society; specifically, the social construction of knowledge, which is distinguished from its near-neighbour constructivism by its focus on inter-subjectivity. We show that social constructionism, at least in its weak form, seems to be implicit in many epistemological assumptions underlying futures studies. We identify a range of distinctive methodological features in foresight studies, such as time, descriptions of difference, participation and values, and examine these from a social constructionist perspective. It appears that social constructionism is highly resonant with the way in which knowledge of the future is produced and used. A social constructionism perspective enables a methodological reflection on how, with what legitimacy, and to what social good, knowledge is produced. Foresight that produces symbols without inter-subjective meaning neither anticipates, nor produces futures. Our conclusion is that foresight is both a social construction, and a mechanism for social construction. Methodologically, foresight projects should acknowledge the socially constructed nature of their process and outcomes as this will lead to greater rigour and legitimacy.
Article
Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing.
Article
Seeks to present a better understanding of dynamic capabilities and the resource-based view of the firm. Dynamic capabilities are considered to be the "organizational and strategic routines by which firms achieve new resource configurations." Dynamic capabilities are identifiable and specific routines that can serve different purposes, including integrating resources, reconfiguring resources within firms, and guiding the gain and release of resources. Various examples such as the product development process and alliancing, are discussed. Commonalities related to effective dynamic capabilities can be seen across firms though this does not mean that these capabilities are exactly alike. The dynamism of the market can impact the sustainability of the dynamic capabilities and the causal ambiguity of these capabilities. Moderately dynamic markets see robust, grooved routine, while high velocity markets experience simple rules and real-knowledge creation. The evolution of these dynamic capabilities within a firm are unique but the firm's individual path is shaped by well-known learning mechanisms. Competitive advantage does not lie in the dynamic capabilities themselves but rather in the resource configurations that managers build using these dynamic capabilities. (SRD)
The conceptual future of foresight: Rethinking foresight as an emergent process
  • F Andersen
  • B Schulte
  • H U Koller
Andersen, F., Schulte, B., & Koller, H. U. 2020. The conceptual future of foresight: Rethinking foresight as an emergent process. Academy of Management Annual Meeting Proceedings, 1: 12851.
How Organizations Can Create Their Own Future
  • Aom Insights
AOM Insights. 2021. How Organizations Can Create Their Own Future. Accessible at: https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amp.2018.0178.summary?journalCode=ami&jo urnalCode=ami
Why the pandemic reminds us we need corporate foresight, before and during a crisis
  • A Fergnani
Fergnani, A. 2020a. Why the pandemic reminds us we need corporate foresight, before and during a crisis.
Dynamic capabilities: Understanding strategic change in organizations
  • C E Helfat
  • S Finkelstein
  • W Mitchell
  • M A Peteraf
  • H Singh
  • D J Teece
  • S G Winter
Helfat, C. E., Finkelstein, S., Mitchell, W., Peteraf, M. A., Singh, H., Teece, D. J., & Winter, S. G. 2007. Dynamic capabilities: Understanding strategic change in organizations. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.
Manoa: The Future is not Binary
  • W Schutlz
Schutlz, W. 2015. Manoa: The Future is not Binary. APF Compass, April 2015 issue: 4-8.
The Biggest Wake up Call in History. Foresight International. van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation
  • R A Slaughter
Slaughter, R. A. 2010. The Biggest Wake up Call in History. Foresight International. van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.
The sixth sense: Accelerating organizational learning with scenarios
  • K Van Der Heijden
  • R Bradfield
  • G Burt
  • G Cairns
  • G Wright
van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Wright, G. 2002. The sixth sense: Accelerating organizational learning with scenarios. Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley & Sons.
Management Insights. 2021. How organizations can create their own futures
Management Insights. 2021. How organizations can create their own futures. Academy of Management Insights. doi:10.5465/amp.2018.0178
Futures research methodology version 3.0. Washington, DC: The Millennium Project
  • J C Glenn
Glenn, J. C. 2009. The futures wheel. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures research methodology version 3.0. Washington, DC: The Millennium Project. Retrieved from https://www.millennium-project.org/ publications-2/futures-research-methodology-version-3-0/
Managing complexity in social systems
  • C E Mandl
Mandl, C. E. 2019. Managing complexity in social systems. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
The biggest wake up call in history
  • R A Slaughter
Slaughter, R. A. 2010. The biggest wake up call in history. Brisbane, Australia: Foresight International.