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Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying Capacity Assessment in Gwalior City

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Cities are the engines of economic growth. The world population is getting concentrated in urban areas across the globe. In the year 2015, 54% of the population lived in urban areas, which contributed to 80% of the world’s gross domestic product. It is a challenging task for planners to manage the urban system with the available resource constraints. The urban system has a certain carrying capacity to accommodate the population. Quality of life decreases due to increase in population in the urban system when it reaches beyond the carrying capacity. Carrying capacity assessment plays an important role in developing the urban system in a planned manner by restricting the growth in areas, where the carrying capacity had already reached. It is important to look forward to the carrying capacity assessment from a land use planning perspective to ensure integration of land use, infrastructure, and the carrying capacity. In this paper, an attempt is made to assess the infrastructure carrying capacity of Gwalior city, Madhya Pradesh, India by using Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation—‘SAFE’ model, developed by the Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati. In this approach, the land requirement for various uses in the urban system is considered. The carrying capacity is assessed based on the land requirement. GIS technique is used to make the necessary assessment of the carrying capacity of the system (the study area).
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Chapter 6
Sustainable Infrastructure Planning
by Using Carrying Capacity Assessment
in Gwalior City
Jayeshkumar Maheshkumar Bhagwat and Varuvel Devadas
Abstract Cities are the engines of economic growth. The world population is getting
concentrated in urban areas across the globe. In the year 2015, 54% of the popula-
tion lived in urban areas, which contributed to 80% of the world’s gross domestic
product. It is a challenging task for planners to manage the urban system with the
available resource constraints. The urban system has a certain carrying capacity to
accommodate the population. Quality of life decreases due to increase in popula-
tion in the urban system when it reaches beyond the carrying capacity. Carrying
capacity assessment plays an important role in developing the urban system in a
planned manner by restricting the growth in areas, where the carrying capacity had
already reached. It is important to look forward to the carrying capacity assessment
from a land use planning perspective to ensure integration of land use, infrastructure,
and the carrying capacity. In this paper, an attempt is made to assess the infrastruc-
ture carrying capacity of Gwalior city, Madhya Pradesh, India by using Sustain-
able Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation—‘SAFE’ model, developed by
the Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati. In this approach, the land require-
ment for various uses in the urban system is considered. The carrying capacity is
assessed based on the land requirement. GIS technique is used to make the necessary
assessment of the carrying capacity of the system (the study area).
Keywords Carrying capacity ·‘SAFE’ approach ·Urban infrastructure ·Quality
of life ·Sustainable city ·Urban infrastructure
J. M. Bhagwat (B)·V. D e va d a s
Department of Architecture and Planning, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand,
India
e-mail: jayeshmaheshbhagwat@gmail.com
V. D e v a d a s
e-mail: devadasv59@gmail.com
J. M. Bhagwat
Department of Planning, School of Planning and Architecture, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh, India
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
U. Iyer-Raniga (ed.), Sustainability in the Built Environment in the 21st Century: Lessons
Learned from India and the Region, Environmental Science and Engineering,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3- 030-61891- 9_6
89
90 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
6.1 Introduction
Infrastructure is an important determinant for maintaining a desirable quality of
life in an urban system. Carrying capacity helps in the assessment of the popula-
tion that a particular urban system could sustain for a particular set of resources.
The land is a limited resource. In this work, the land is used to assess the carrying
capacity considering infrastructure as an important determinant. The work concen-
trates on the assessment of the existing carrying capacity based on the land-use in
the city of Gwalior for the year 2017. The areas used for infrastructure in the city are
accounted for the assessment. The ‘SAFE’ approach, proposed by the Indian Institute
of Technology, Guwahati, is used for the said purpose. This includes delineation of
the city based on the watersheds and ultimately making the assessment of carrying
capacity based on each watershed considering the land under various infrastructure.
The population that could be effectively carried will be ultimately determined.
6.1.1 Carrying Capacity and Infrastructure Planning
Carrying capacity concept evolved from the field of ecology. It is developed by
Thomas Malthus in the year 1798. He stated that the earth can hold only a certain
amount of population. This was an important intervention in the field of planning the
ecology (Sarma 2012). Scholars from various fields redefined and used this concept in
their own areas of research. The limit to which the size of the population is acceptable
is termed as carrying capacity (Price 1999). The definitions vary but the central idea is
the maximum population a particular area can attain (Ehrlich 1991; Catton 1981). All
these discussions about the basic concepts of carrying capacity developed awareness
among the researchers and policymakers to think about limiting population on the
planet earth. Various ideas were developed to take care of the population increases
in various parts of the world. The concept of carrying capacity has a single meaning
with multiple connotations. Tourism carrying capacity (O’Reilly 1986), ecological
carrying capacity (Wang 2010), water resources carrying capacity (Song 2011), social
carrying capacity (Graefe 1984) are some of the connotations. The urban carrying
capacity is one such connotation, this deals with the number of people in an urban
system could carry and maintain the desired level of quality of life. The work done by
the IIT Guwahati had produced the following graph related to the concept pertaining
to carrying capacity (Fig. 6.1).
The graph shows two variables namely time (T) and population (N). Carrying
capacity is the stable population for all time period. The degraded carrying capacity is
a result of a decrease in resources in the urban system. The enhanced carrying capacity
is a result of the various mechanisms followed in an urban system to overcome the
limitations arising as a result of resource depletion. Population overshooting is a
result of the sudden growth of resources in the urban system, for example industrial
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 91
Fig. 6.1 Graph showing the relation between population rise and carrying capacity. Source Sarma
(2012)
development. A stable population is an ideal growth of population, proportionate to
the available amount of resources.
Infrastructure development is one of the important indicators of economic devel-
opment in any city. Sustainability in infrastructure planning will play an impor-
tant role in making the cities socially, economically, and environmentally inclusive.
Infrastructure planning could be achieved sustainably only by accounting the carrying
capacity of the urban system.
6.1.2 Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Development
Sustainable development is the prime concern of world leaders. The sustainable
development goals set by the United Nations provide insights into the various
components associated with achieving sustainable development. Goal eleven (SDG
11) deals with making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and
sustainable. The number of peoples living in informal settlements is increasing. The
land under urban areas is increasing. Cities are becoming less dense and sprawl is
increasing. The urban issues like pollution are attaining major threat to the ecosystem.
The assessment of carrying capacity will play an important role in achieving this goal
of the United Nations (Guterres 2017). Carrying capacity based operational frame-
work would help in reaching the goal of sustainable development. The equitable
quality of life of the people will be enhanced by upholding the ecological balance,
minimize environmental degradation by maintaining socio-economic development.
92 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
Carrying capacity based sustainable development approach will help in a compre-
hensive understanding of the potential resources and optimal allocation of resource
to gain the benefits of sustainable development (Khanna 1999).
There is a limit for the available resources in human civilization. It is important to
understand this overpopulation and associated crisis. The centralization of resources
and market-driven economic policies have created ecological challenges. The co-
existence of nature and society is becoming a fiction than a fact. It is important in
relation to sustainable development with carrying capacity in order to accelerate the
co-existence between nature and society. The problems of the human civilization
will be solved only by the conceptualization of carrying capacity based sustainable
development approach (Victor 2009). Supply of additional per capita resources in
the ecosystem, enhance the carrying capacity of a short term. This approach is not
sustainable to plan the ecosystem. The developing countries have paid the least atten-
tion towards making policies to maintain the balance between available resources
and population (Mahar 1985). The shortage of land resource and the availability of
sufficient food grains is an important concern in human societies. Carrying capacity
is assessed by various names like environmental, regional, ecological. All of these are
comprehensive carrying capacity. Carrying capacity concept has a century-old history
of progress and evolution. The important question is to mainstream the concept in the
policy spectrum of human society (Tian 2013). Thus, carrying capacity and sustain-
able development are closely associated, both the concepts, if combined can help in
formulating a better quality of life in the urban system.
6.1.3 Gwalior City
The historical city of Gwalior is an important primate settlement of Northern part
of Madhya Pradesh. The city is located 320 km South of New Delhi, the national
capital of India. The average temperatures in summer and winter are 31°C and 15.1°C
respectively. Swarnarekha and Morar are the two rivers flowing through the city.
Gwalior city is 39th most populous city of India and fourth in the state of Madhya
Pradesh. The population of Gwalior was 1,069,000 people in 2011 and 1,375,000
people in 2017 (Census, 2015) (SPA, 2017).
6.2 Literature Review
Carrying capacity assessment is carried out by employing various approaches. It is
important to understand these approaches and adopt the practically implementable
approach for mainstreaming carrying capacity based sustainable infrastructure
planning in Indian cities.
The development density of Seoul in the Republic of Korea was determined by
using carrying capacity. Integration of urban management goals, area of concern, and
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 93
urban management indicators were employed to perform an integrated urban carrying
capacity assessment. The factors to assess carrying capacity were determined. An
urban carrying capacity assessment system was developed by using various modules.
The decision support by using GIS is the unique selling point of this assessment.
Public perception is unaccounted in this approach, and this is one of the limitations
of said approach (Oh 2005).
An empirical approach to assess the carrying capacity for sustainable urban devel-
opment is developed by the researchers in the case study of Tokyo, Japan. In this
quantitative approach, level of services combined with a prediction of the employee
and living population was used. The capacity of urban facilities and services like
water supply, sewerage, waste, railway capacity, road, housing, and air pollution
were accounted for. The predicted living and employee population were related to
the level of facilities and services. The resulting capacity was employed for the
sustainable development of the city of Tokyo. Decentralization and management of
business growth are the two major recommendations from this approach (Onishi
1994).
Social carrying capacity assessment approach is primarily based on social and
economic models. A group of researchers tried to extend the scope towards environ-
mental models. It was observed that the carrying capacity assessment is limited to the
economic point of view (Wei 2016). The approach neglects the environmental impact
due to changing resources consumption led by changing lifestyle (Summer 2004).
The emphasis of environmental carrying capacity approach is to use the resource
consumption driven environmental impacts to determine population limit. In envi-
ronmental carrying capacity-based approaches the land resource required for a popu-
lation is considered to determine the carrying capacity (Bicknell 1998). A group of
researchers focused on environmental impact rather than resource availability in
the process to assess the carrying capacity (Graymore 2010). A certain group of
researchers used water, food, and energy within a definite land area to derive the
carrying capacity (Cohen 1995). This approach, thus focuses on resource availability
than on the environmental impact of population.
Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation ‘SAFE’ carrying
capacity approach is favorable for eco-sensitive areas. This approach was first applied
in the hilly area of Guwahati city, in the Indian state of Assam. This approach could
also be applied to any other urban area. Researchers have applied his approach to
assessing the carrying capacity of Patna city in the Indian state of Bihar (Kumar
2017). In this approach, the ecological footprint is used to determine the sustainable
carrying capacity of a watershed or group of watersheds covering the urban area
under consideration. This approach finally accommodates a sustainable population,
the method is denoted as ‘SAFE’—“Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback
Evaluation” (Sarma 2012).
94 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
6.3 Method and Calculation
Assessment of carrying capacity based on Sustainable Accommodation through
Feedback Evaluation ‘SAFE’ approach. The approach employed for this work is
discussed as follows:
Step 1: Delineation of the urban watershed: In this step, the watersheds are delineated
by using tools like GIS. The delineated watershed is shown in Fig. 6.2.
Step 2: Demarcation of the developable & non-developable area: The city consists
of both developable areas & areas having less scope (unsuitable) for development,
i.e. non-developable areas. In this step, the non-developable areas of the delineated
region are demarcated by using the latest geospatial tools. The non-developable areas
mainly consist of land which was identified by the overlay method. Equal weight was
assigned to six different parameters namely groundwater table, agricultural land use,
land used under forest, proximity to an urban area, slope, and drainage (SPA, 2017).
The usable areas with respect to various developmental activities can be identified.
So,AU =AD +AND (6.1)
Therefore,AD =AUAND (6.2)
where
AU is the Total area available for development,
AD is the Area Suitable for development, and
AND Area not suitable for development.
Step 3: Determination of area required for different infrastructure and facilities
(ADIF):
ADIF =AIF +AR (6.3)
where
AIF is the area for infrastructure development, and
AR is the area for residential requirements.
Step 4: Calculation of the available residential area:
The net residential area available for settlement development can be calculated
by using the following equation:
From (1)&(3)AU =AND +AIF +AR
Therefore,AR =AU (AND +AIF)
where
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 95
Fig. 6.2 Delineation of the watershed for Swarnarekha and Morar rivers. Source SPA (2017)
96 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
AU is the Total area available for development,
AD is the Area Suitable for development, and
AND Area not suitable for development.
Step 5: Socio-economic survey of the urban region & calculation of the floor area
requirement per head:
A socio-economic survey is expected to be employed in order to determine the
floor area required per head. The use of national level floor area standard values
is considered. Analysis of the socio-economic status of the present population
and considering the future prospects of an average floor area requirement is being
considered as 0.002 ha per head (Sarma 2012).
Step 6: Determination of the Floor Area Ratio: Floor Area Ratio is defined as follows
FAR =AF/AP
where
FAR is the Floor Area Ratio,
AF is the total floor area, and
AP is the area of the plot.
FAR need tobe determined by considering various aspects. The proposed ‘SAFE’
method itself will determine an acceptable FAR, one needs to provide an initial
value of FAR. This value can be adopted from guidelines provided by the different
organizations like the urban local bodies. In this case, we consider the FAR as 125
or FSI as 1.25, the permissible value for the city of Gwalior (Figs. 6.3 and 6.4).
Step 7: Calculation of carrying capacity: Based on the overall study, the carrying
capacity of the area with respect to urban development can be calculated by using
the following equation:
CC =AU (AND +AIF)×FAR /S
where S is the Floor area requirement per head. In this work, we consider 0.002 ha per
head (Sarma 2012). The values of the area are in all above formulae are in hectares.
The area suitable for development (AD) in Swarnarekha and Morar watersheds
within the city limit is calculated. The area not suitable for development (AND) is
determined. The permissible FAR, in the city of Gwalior allotted by the municipal
corporation is used for further calculations. The floor area required per head (S) is
adapted from the research earlier carried conducted to develop the ‘SAFE’ approach
(Sarma 2012). The total infrastructure includes the area used for physical, social,
business and commercial activities in the city. The residential area in the city for
Swarnarekha and Morar watershed is determined, refer to Table 6.1 (Table 6.2).
The carrying capacity for the area suitable for development in the city of Gwalior
by employing ‘SAFE’ approach is 141,744 in the year 2017.
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 97
Fig. 6.3 Gwalior Municipal Area: Land Suitability Map. Source SPA (2017)
98 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
Fig. 6.4 Gwalior Municipal Area: Land Use—2017. Source SPA (2017)
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 99
Table 6.1 Land used for various Infrastructure in Gwalior
Description Notation Area (km2)
Swarnarekha Morar
Area of watershed suitable for development AD 55.28 125.72
Area not suitable for development AND 17.34 38.21
Floor area ratio FAR 125 125
Floor area requirement per head S0.00002 0.00002
Infrastructure (includes physical, social, business and commercial)
1. Physical infrastructure
(includes water supply, sewage management, solid waste
management, power supply, transportation, and mobility)
0.76 1.58
2. Social infrastructure
(includes education, health, government offices, recreation
parks, playgrounds, socio-cultural facilities, communication
post & telecom, milk booth, fire stations, and open spaces)
2.54 8.67
3. Business and commerce 1.89 0.85
Total infrastructure area AIF 5.20 11.11
Total residential area AR 20.64 24.90
Source Authors
6.4 Result and Discussion
The population of Gwalior in the year 2017 was 1,375,000. The population as per
the ‘SAFE’ approach employed for the purpose of assessment of carrying capacity
is 141,000 persons. In India, access to infrastructure is decreasing due to various
social, cultural, and economic constraints. The government of India is making efforts
in improvisation of accessibility of infrastructure to the masses in the urban as well
as rural settlements. The government interventions like Smart City Mission, Atal
Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), Housing for All by
2022 mission, Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY),
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), Swachh Bharat
Mission (SBM), etc., are implemented to make infrastructural provisions in Indian
urban system (MoHUA 2018). In the context of the rural system, Pradhan Mantri
Gram Sadak Yojana, Sarv Shiksha Abhiyan, Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana (SAGY)
are implemented (MoRD 2018). The infrastructure provisions required in urban and
rural India is found to be inadequate (FICCI 2011). It is an alarming circumstance,
in the planning of infrastructure in Indian cities. Planning the infrastructure by using
a sustainable approach can enhance the quality of life. The carrying capacity assess-
ment by employing ‘SAFE’ approach proposed by Indian Institute of Technology,
Guwahati could play a leading role in this regard.
A settlement has a capacity to carry the people who reside in that settlement. It is
important for developing countries like India, to develop policy mechanisms which
can incorporate the carrying capacity approach to plan cities. Mainstreaming such
100 J. M. Bhagwat and V. Devadas
Table 6.2 Carrying capacity assessment in Gwalior city for Swarnarekha and Morar Watershed
Description Notation Swarnarekha watershed Morar watershed
In km2In Ha In km2In Ha
Tot a l A rea
available for
development
AU 72.62 7262.46 163.94 16,394.66
Area suitable for
development
AD 55.28 5528.45 125.73 12,572.93
Area not suitable
for development
AND 17.34 1734.00 38.21 3821.726
Tot a l A rea
available for
development
AU 72.62 7262.46 163.94 16,394.66
Ava ila b le
residential area
AR 20.64 2064.99 24.90 2490.91
Area for
Infrastructure
Development
AIF 3.311 331.199 10.26 1026.11
Area required for
different
Infrastructure and
facilities
ADIF 23.96 2396.19 35.17 3517.03
Net residential area
available for
development
ARN 51.97 5197.26 115.46 11,546.81
Floor Area Ratio FAR 125
Carrying capacity
(number of
persons)
CC 67,697 74,047
Source Authors
approaches in the statutory documents like master plans and development plans can
help to facilitate the quality of life in the urban settlement.
6.5 Conclusions
Urban infrastructure and land resource are key the determinants to assess the carrying
capacity of a city. The quality of life is closely associated with the number of persons
an urban system can carry. In cases where there are fewer resources and more persons
the quality of life reduces. In the process of planning the cities by a sustainable
carrying approach, capacity assessment can be a guiding path. In Indian cities due
to the concentration of economic resources in the urban areas, there is a massive
immigration. The cities are becoming poles of attraction for the population residing
6 Sustainable Infrastructure Planning by Using Carrying … 101
in rural areas. It is necessary to promote equity and equality for rural areas to reduce
the pressure on resources in the urban system. The carrying capacity of Gwalior is
inadequate with respect to the growth of population in the city. The city of Gwalior,
which was once the capital of the Gwalior kingdom, has lost its glory. This city is
presently acting like a primate city in the North-central region of India, due to lack of
employment, education and other opportunities in the region. It is important for the
city of Gwalior to rejuvenate, but the carrying capacity is not increased by making
adequate provisions in the city and more importantly, replacing the old infrastructure
provided by the Gwalior Kingdom. It is observed that most of the infrastructure,
including social, physical, business and commercial was not developed since the
Gwalior kingdom was annexed in India. It is the need of the day to accommodate the
increase in population by making adequate provision for infrastructure based on such
a carrying capacity approach. Thus, land-based sustainable infrastructure planning
of Gwalior could help in improving the quality of life and planning sustainable
infrastructure in the city.
Acknowledgements The authors thank to the officers of Gwalior Municipal Corporation, Indian
Institute of Technology (IIT), Roorkee and School of Planning and Architecture (SPA), New Delhi
for providing they co-operation for this work.
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As the urban population increases, so do diverse urban problems and concerns including issues of servicing large numbers of people within existing infrastructures, as a result of over-development and over-concentration. Environmental problems, particularly air and water pollution, have become more evident and are now considered central issues for urban planners and decision-makers. To address these environmental problems, practical approaches which incorporate the concept of carrying capacity into managing urban development are needed.This research aims at developing an integrated framework for assessing urban carrying capacity which can determine development density based on current infrastructures and land use. First, seven determining factors were identified for urban carrying capacity including energy, green areas, roads, subway systems, water supply, sewage treatment, and waste treatment, and the assessment framework was developed by integrating such factors. Secondly, the Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment System, a GIS-based carrying capacity assessment system, was developed based upon the framework. Finally, through a case study for determining the carrying capacity for an area in Seoul, South Korea, it was revealed that decision support with UCCAS demonstrated in this research can play a pivotal role in planning and managing urban development more effectively.