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“Prospects of Recovery and Sustainability”
Global Business Coalition
April 14, 2021
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Global Effect of the Pandemic on the Real Economy and Finance
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Source: Our World in Data, April 13th, 2021
136 Million Confirmed COVID-19 Cases
Increasing Extreme Poverty
Source: World Bank, January 2021
Source: FT, April 20, 2020
Acute hunger set to double to 265 million
Source: World Bank, January 22, 2021
Increasing Education Poverty
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Global Effect of the Pandemic on the Real Economy and Finance
Global Growth Outlook
Source: UNCTAD, January 2021
FDI Inflows
4th Wave of Global Debt
Source: Institute of International Finance, February 2021
Source: IMF WEO April 2021
Total Employment
Source: IMF WEO April 2021
Global Trade Trends
Source: WTO, 31 March 2021
-5.3%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2020 2021 2022
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Global Effect of the Pandemic on the Real Economy and Finance
Projections
Real GDP Growth 2020 2021 2022
World -3.3 6.0 4.4
Advanced Economies -4.7 5.1 3.6
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies -2.2 6.7 5.0
Emerging and Developing Asia -1.0 8.6 6.0
Euro Area -6.6 4.4 3.8
Emerging and Developing Europe -2.0 4.4 3.9
Latin America and Caribbean -7.0 4.6 3.1
Middle East and Central Asia -2.9 3.7 3.8
Sub-Saharan Africa -1.9 3.4 4.0
Emerging Market and Middle-Income
Economies -2.4 6.9 5.0
Low-Income Developing Countries 0.0 4.3 5.2
Projections
Real GDP Growth 2020 2021 2022
Argentina
-10.0 5.8 2.5
Australia
-2.4 4.5 2.8
Brazil
-4.1 3.7 2.6
Canada
-5.4 5.0 4.7
China
2.3 8.4 5.6
Egypt
3.6 2.5 5.7
France
-8.2 5.8 4.2
Germany
-4.9 3.6 3.4
India
-8.0 12.5 6.9
Italy
-8.9 4.2 3.6
Japan
-4.8 3.3 2.5
South Africa
-7.0 3.1 2.0
Spain
-11.0 6.4 4.7
Turkey
1.8 6.0 3.5
United Kingdom
-9.9 5.3 5.1
United States
-3.5 6.4 3.5
Source: IMF WEO April 2021
Building Forward Better
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Source: AXA 2020 Emerging Risks Survey
6
Economic Aspects
Environment and Climate
Governance
Poverty and Inequality
Social and Human Development
Partnerships
Building Forward Better
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Green, Smart, and Inclusive Recovery
7
Investments in Human Capital
Early childhood
education, secondary
and tertiary
Universal Healthcare
Technical skills
Investments in Infrastructure
Data, Networks and
Artificial Intelligence
Physical infrastructure
Access and connectivity
Investments in Resilience
Climate and disaster
resilience
Risk identification and
preparedness
Social protection
Developments to Consider
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Shape of the Recovery
• K
• Or else?
Future of Work
•Bottlenecks / Lockdowns
•Hybrid Models
•Gig Economy
•Sectoral & Regional Discrepancies
Inflation
• Transitory
• Persistent
• Expectations
21% minimum global
corporate tax
• Principle
•Rate
• Implementation
• Impact
Interest Rates
• Exchange Rates
• Capital Flows
9
Thank You
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