ArticlePDF Available

Articles From Fragile to Collapsed Statehood: The Case of the Republic of Yemen (1990-2020)

Authors:

Abstract and Figures

The unification of the two Yemeni states–the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), respectively–in 1990 has been a resounding failure. Merging the tribal-dominated northern and state-party dominated southern regimes meant increasing the number of factions competing for access to state resources to satisfy material and security needs of their respective networks of influence. In particular, efforts at growing the resource base of the unified state after 1990, by means of an expansion of oil and gas exploration and extraction, raised the revenue base of the state in an unsustainable manner. Such growth in national oil and gas rents increased rather than decreased competition over state authority to control the spoils. The major subsequent events, such as the 1994 civil war, the 2004-2010 “Saada wars” against the Houthi movement, the Yemeni version of the “Arab Spring” in 2011, the failure of the National Dialogue Conference (March 2013-January 2014), and the start of the Saudi and Emirati bombing campaign and subsequent ground war in Yemen since March 2015 all triggered major clashes between different factions of the Yemeni state bureaucracy, army, and civil society. On each of these occasions, efforts to freeze out some Yemeni actors produced escalating conflict between the remaining factions instead of a winning coalition that could have reestablished a degree of stability. The article explains how local, regional, and global factors have jointly overwhelmed the Yemeni actors, and how foreign intervention has led to the further deterioration of the pre-existing national crisis.
Content may be subject to copyright.
EG<6?8F
From Fragile to Collapsed Statehood: The Case of the Republic of
Yemen (1990-2020)
Jörg Michael Dostal a
Keywords: fragile statehood, houthi movement, saudi arabia, state collapse, yemen
,B?FFH8
*;8HA<V64G<BAB9G;8GJB/8@8A<FG4G8FPG;8ABEG;8EA/8@8AE45(8CH5?<6/(4A7
G;8FBHG;8EA&8BC?8RF8@B6E4G<6(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A&(/E8FC86G<I8?LP<A;4F
588A4E8FBHA7<A:94<?HE8#8E:<A:G;8GE<54?7B@<A4G87ABEG;8EA4A7FG4G8C4EGL
7B@<A4G87FBHG;8EAE8:<@8F@84AG<A6E84F<A:G;8AH@58EB9946G<BAF6B@C8G<A:9BE
4668FFGBFG4G8E8FBHE68FGBF4G<F9L@4G8E<4?4A7F86HE<GLA887FB9G;8<EE8FC86G<I8
A8GJBE>FB9<AWH8A68AC4EG<6H?4E899BEGF4G:EBJ<A:G;8E8FBHE6854F8B9G;8HA<V87
FG4G849G8E5L@84AFB94A8KC4AF<BAB9B<?4A7:4F8KC?BE4G<BA4A78KGE46G<BA
E4<F87G;8E8I8AH854F8B9G;8FG4G8<A4AHAFHFG4<A45?8@4AA8E)H6;:EBJG;<AA4G<BA4?
B<?4A7:4FE8AGF<A6E84F87E4G;8EG;4A786E84F876B@C8G<G<BABI8EFG4G84HG;BE<GLGB
6BAGEB?G;8FCB<?F
*;8@4=BEFH5F8DH8AG8I8AGFFH6;4FG;86<I<?J4EG;8S)4474J4EFT
4:4<AFGG;8BHG;<@BI8@8AGG;8/8@8A<I8EF<BAB9G;8SE45)CE<A:T<AG;8
94<?HE8B9G;8$4G<BA4?<4?B:H8BA98E8A68#4E6; 4AH4EL4A7G;8FG4EGB9
G;8)4H7<4A7@<E4G<5B@5<A:64@C4<:A4A7FH5F8DH8AG:EBHA7J4E<A/8@8AF<A68
#4E6;4??GE<::8E87@4=BE6?4F;8F58GJ88A7<998E8AG946G<BAFB9G;8/8@8A<FG4G8
5HE84H6E46L4E@L4A76<I<?FB6<8GL%A846;B9G;8F8B664F<BAF899BEGFGB9E88M8BHG
FB@8/8@8A<46GBEFCEB7H6878F64?4G<A:6BAW<6G58GJ88AG;8E8@4<A<A:946G<BAF<AFG847
B94J<AA<A:6B4?<G<BAG;4G6BH?7;4I8E88FG45?<F;87478:E88B9FG45<?<GL*;84EG<6?8
8KC?4<AF;BJ?B64?E8:<BA4?4A7:?B54?946GBEF;4I8=B<AG?LBI8EJ;8?@87G;8/8@8A<
46GBEF4A7;BJ9BE8<:A<AG8EI8AG<BA;4F?87GBG;89HEG;8E78G8E<BE4G<BAB9G;8
CE88K<FG<A:A4G<BA4?6E<F<F
INTRODUCTION
*;8FG4G8B9/8@8A9BE@87<A49G8EG;8HA<V64G<BA
B9$BEG; 4A7 )BHG; /8@8A G;8ABEG;8EA /8@8AE45 (8
CH5?<6/(4A7G;8FBHG;8EA&8BC?8RF8@B6E4G<6(8CH5
?<6B9 /8@8A&(/E8FC86G<I8?L7B8F ABG 984GHE8CEB@<
A8AG?L <A G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 B9 78I8?BC@8AG FGH7<8F BE
8K4@C?84A<AWH8AG<4?@BAB:E4C;G<G?87&0A)<176;)14
#0-:1/16;7. 7?-: :7;8-:1<A )6, 7>-:<A7B8FABG@4>8
4ALE898E8A68GBG;86BHAGEL68@B:?H(B5<AFBA
EH6<4??L/8@8ARF64F8B99E4:<?8FG4G8;BB7J;<6;;4F7E4
@4G<64??L 78G8E<BE4G87 F<A68 G;8 !<A:7B@ B9 )4H7< E45<4
!) 4A7 +A<G87 E45 @<E4G8F + @<?<G4EL <AG8EI8A
G<BA 4A7 5B@5<A: 64@C4<:A G4E:8G<A: G;8 6BHAGEL F<A68
ABJE8CE8F8AGFG;8@BFGF8I8E8;H@4A<G4E<4A6E<F<F<A
G;8JBE?7AG8EA4G<BA4?(8F6H8B@@<GG88CC
*;<FC4C8E F6EHG<A<M8F G;8 6B@C4E4G<I8?LHA78E8KC?BE87
64F8B9/8@8AGG4>8FG;89BE@B94DH4?<G4G<I864F8FGH7L
54F87 BA 4 ?BA:<GH7<A4? 4CCEB46; G;4G 8K4@<A8F G;8 (8
CH5?<6 B9 /8@8A 58GJ88A  4A7  *;8 45F8A68 B9
E8?<45?8FG4G<FG<64?74G44A7B9@84A<A:9H?DH4AG<G4G<I8E8
F84E6;@8G;B7FFH::8FGFG;4G DH4?<G4G<I8E8F84E6;<F<AG;8
/8@8A<6BAG8KGG;8@BFGFH<G45?84CCEB46;
/8@8ARFHA<V64G<BAJ4F<A<G<4??LCE8F8AG874F4CB?<G<64?
CEB=86G54F87 BA G;8 CE<A6<C?8 B9 9H??8DH4?<GL58GJ88AG;8
ABEG;4A7G;8FBHG;BJ8I8EG;8CBCH?4G<BA B9G;8ABEG;
<F4G ?84FG G;E88 G<@8F ;<:;8E G;4A G;8?8FF 78AF8?L CBCH
?4G875HG :8B:E4C;<64??L @BE8FC46<BHFFBHG;4A7G;8CB
?<G<64? 8FG45?<F;@8AG B9 G;8 ABEG; FH5F8DH8AG?L 5864@8
CEBA8GB @4E:<A4?<M8G;8FBHG; CB?<G<64??L*;<F E8FH?G87<A
G;8 ?4E:8F64?8 6B??4CF8 B9 FBHG;8EA E8CE8F8AG4G<BA <A G;8
HA<V87 FG4G8 9B??BJ<A: 4 5E<89 6<I<? J4E 58GJ88A ABEG;8EA
4A7FBHG;8EA9BE68F<A
)<A68G;8A G;8 6BHAGEL ;4F FH998E879EB@ @4AL EBHA7F
B9<AG8EA4?@<?<G4EL86BAB@<64A7FB6<4?HC;84I4?CEB7H6
<A: ?BA:FG4A7<A: 6BAW<6GF 58GJ88A 4A <A6E84F<A:?L 9E4:
@8AG87 4A7 5E<GG?8 FG4G8 946<A: I4E<BHF 7B@8FG<6 BCCB
A8AGF #BFG CEB@<A8AG?L G;8 FB64??87 SBHG;<T
<AFHE:8A6LG;4G <A<G<4??L FG4EG87 B99 <A4F4?B64?6BA
W<6GBI8E?4A7E<:;GF<AG;8ABEG;8EA5BE78EE8:<BAB9)4474
6;4??8A:87 G;8 FG4G8 )<A68  /8@8ARF @<?<G4EL 6BA
7H6G876BHAG8E<AFHE:8A6L4:4<AFGG;8BHG;<FAG;8
?BA:FG4A7<A:/8@8A<&E8F<78AG?<57H??4;)4?8;B9V68
;B?78E<AG;8/(58GJ88A4A74A7<AG;8HA<V87
6BHAGEL58GJ88A4A7J4FGBCC?87<A4F8E<8FB9
8I8AGFE8?4G87GBG;8SE45FCE<A:T
BJ8I8E G;8 E8@BI4? B9 )4?8; 4A7 G;8 4AABHA68@8AG
B957E455H; #4AFHE 47<4F A8J CE8F<78AGB9 4 SGE4AF<
Associate Professor, Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University, Korea, E-mail: jmdostal@snu.ac.kr a
Dostal, J. M. (2021). From Fragile to Collapsed Statehood: The Case of the Republic of
Yemen (1990-2020). Korean Journal of Policy Studies,36(1), 69–84.
G<BA4?:BI8EA@8AGTCEB7H6879HEG;8E 8F64?4G<BA B9 /8@8A<
6BAW<6GF 47< ;47 CE8I<BHF?L F8EI87 9BE GJ8AGL L84EF 4F
)4?8;RF,<68&E8F<78AG#4AL78986GBEF 9EB@)4?8;RFCE8I<
BHF E8:<@8 6BAF<78E87 ;<@ 4F 4 FH<G45?8 E8C?468@8AG 8K
46G?L5864HF8;87<7ABGFG4A79BE4AL9HA74@8AG4?E8FGEH6
GHE<A: B9 /8@8A< CB?<G<6F B??BJ<A: CEB9BE@4 8?86G<BAF
J<G; ;<@ 4F G;8 BA?L 64A7<74G8 <A 85EH4EL  ;8 E8
68<I87 8A7BEF8@8AGF 9EB@ G;8 +A<G87 )G4G8F +) G;8
+A<G87 $4G<BAF +$ FLFG8@ 4A7 )4H7< E45<4  FH5F8
DH8AG S$4G<BA4? <4?B:H8 BA98E8A68T 58GJ88A  4A7
78I8?BC87<AGB4G4?><A:F;BCG;4GCEB7H687E86
B@@8A74G<BAF5HG 94<?87GBB998E4AL 4:E88@8AG BA<A6?H
F<I8:BI8EA@8AG*JB@4=BE/8@8A<BCCBF<G<BA:EBHCFG;8
BHG;<F 4A7 G;8 )BHG;8EA #BI8@8AG G;8 ?4GG8E 4 CB?<G<
64?4??<4A6878@4A7<A: 4HGBAB@L BE 9H?? F8C4E4G<BA B9 G;8
FBHG; 9EB@ G;8 ABEG; 5864@8 <A6E84F<A:?L 8K6?H787 9EB@
G;86BA98E8A68CEB6887<A:F*;<F@84AGG;4G47< 64@8GB
E8?LBA)4H7<546>87F?4@<FG:EBHCF4A79BE8<:A4<7E4G;8E
G;4A7B@8FG<6FHCCBEGE8;BAL
47<RF 786<F<BA GB 8K6?H78 F<:A<V64AG /8@8A< CB?<G<64?
46GBEF 9EB@ CBJ8EF;4E<A: FH5F8DH8AG?L GE<::8E87 G;8
BHG;<RF @<?<G4EL G4>8BI8EB9 G;8 /8@8A< 64C<G4? B9 )4A44
<A)8CG8@58E*;<F@BI8J4F946<?<G4G875LG;8FJ<G6;
B9?BL4?GL B9 @4AL FG4G8 46GBEFABG45?L /8@8A<4E@L 4A7
4<E9BE68HA<GFFG<??6?BF8 GB 9BE@8E &E8F<78AG )4?8; GBG;8
BHG;<64@C)4?8; 4?FB FG4EG87 GBJBE>J<G; G;8 BHG;<F
F<A68;<F84E?<8E?BFFB96BAGEB?B9FG4G8E8FBHE68F@84AGG;4G
;8;47GBVA7A8J4??<8FGBE8:4<A<AWH8A68J;<6;J4FBA?L
CBFF<5?85L9BE:<A:G<8FJ<G;:EBHCF G;4G;8;47 CE8I<BHF?L
9BH:;G4:4<AFG
B??BJ<A:G;8 BHG;< G4>8BI8E B9 )4A4447< A4EEBJ?L
8F64C87 GB )4H7< E45<4 9EB@ J;8E8 ;8 FH5F8DH8AG?L 8A
7BEF87G;8)4H7<@<?<G4EL64@C4<:ABA/8@8A6B78A4@87
S%C8E4G<BA 86<F<I8 )GBE@T FH5F8DH8AG?L E87H5587
8DH4??L<A4CCEBCE<4G8?LS%C8E4G<BA(8A8J4?B9BC8T%A
:B<A: 8I8E F<A68 )8CG8@58E   G;<F 64@C4<:A J4F
FHCCBF87GB E8GHEA47<GBB9V685L78984G<A:G;8BHG;<F
4A7BG;8EBCCBF<G<BA:EBHCFBJ8I8E)4H7<5B@5<A:BA?L
E8FH?G87<AG;878FGEH6G<BAB9/8@8AA78874<EFGE<>8F4A7
G;8FH5F8DH8AG:EBHA7J4EB9)4H7<4A7+546>879BE68F
<A/8@8A7E4@4G<64??L8F64?4G87G;86E<F<FABG?84FG7H8GB
G;8946GG;4G5BG;F<78F 546>876B@C8G<A:/8@8A<946G<BAF
4FCEBK<8F<AG;8<E@HGH4?6B@C8G<G<BAGB6BAGEB?/8@8A
*;8FH5F8DH8AG4EG<6?8<FBE:4A<M874F9B??BJF*;8A8KG
F86G<BACE8F8AGF54F<6:8B:E4C;<64?4A7;<FGBE<64?<A9BE@4
G<BABA /8@8A9G8EJ4E7F 4 S6BAW<6G@4GE<KT <F CHG 9BE
J4E7FH::8FG<A:G;4G ?B64? E8:<BA4? 4A7 :?B54? <AWH8A68F
4A77<998E8AG G<@89E4@8F@HFG4??586BAF<78E87GB :4<A 4
58GG8EHA78EFG4A7<A:B9EBBG64HF8FB9/8@8A<6BAW<6GFC
C?L<A: FH6; 6BAW<6G @4GE<K HA78EFGBB7 4F 4 ;8HE<FG<6 78
I<68 4??BJF 9BE 4 54?4A687 4A4?LF<F B9 G;8 C4FG GE4=86GBEL
4A7E868AG7E4@4G<678G8E<BE4G<BA<A/8@8ARF78I8?BC@8AG
4A7FG4G8;BB7AG;8FH5F8DH8AG F86G<BA4E8CE8F8AG4G<I8
F4@C?8B9G;846478@<6?<G8E4GHE8BA/8@8A<F8K4@<A87P
<A?<A8J<G;G;86BAW<6G@4GE<KPGBGE468@4<A64HF8FB9G;8
6HEE8AG6BAW<6G*;E88 FH5F86G<BAF CE8F8AG ?B64? E8:<BA4?
4A7:?B54?7E<I8EFB9G;8F;<9GGBJ4E7/8@8A<FG4G86B??4CF8
F<A68
*;8C8AH?G<@4G8F86G<BAG;8A@BI8FGBJ4E7478F6E<CG<I8
466BHAGB9 G;8 @4=BECB?<G<64?86BAB@<64A7@<?<G4EL 78
I8?BC@8AGFJ<G;<A /8@8A<AG;8C8E<B758GJ88A4A7
 <A G;8 ?<:;G B9 G;8 CE8I<BHF G;8BE8G<64? 4A4?LF<F <
A4??LG;86BA6?HF<BAFH@FHCG;8 4E:H@8AG 4A7 8K4@<A8F
;BJ /8@8ARF 64F8 @<:;G 58 <AFGEH6G<I8 <A G;8 6BAG8KG B9
?4E:8E7854G8F45BHGS6B??4CF87TS9E4:<?8TS<??HFBELTS?<@
<G87TS94<?87TBE S5EB>8AT FG4G8;BB7P846; B9 G;8F8 G8E@F
;4I<A: 588A 4CC?<87 <A G;8 6BAG8KG B9 7854G8F BA /8@8A
BAA89BL
YEMEN: GEOGRAPHY AND POLICAL HISTORY
(8:<BA4? 4A7 GE<54? 6?84I4:8F ;4I8 ;47 G;8 @BFG C8E
F<FG8AG<AWH8A68BA/8@8A<FB6<8GLG;EBH:;BHG;<FGBELL
6BAGE4FG4HA<V87FG4G8@BABCB?<M<A:G;8?8:<G<@4G8HF8B9
9BE68<AG;8F8AF8FH::8FG875LFB6<B?B:<FG #4K -858E;4F
588A?4E:8?L45F8AG(4G;8EG;4AGB4A4?LM8SG;8FG4G8T<G<F
G;8E89BE8@BE8HF89H?GB9B6HFBA78:E88FB9FG4G8;BB77HE
<A:7<998E8AGG<@8 C8E<B7F*;8G8EE<GBELB9GB74LRF(8CH5
?<6B9 /8@8A6BAF<FGFB9G;E88 @4=BE :8B:E4C;<64?6B@CB
A8AGFA4@8?LG;8@BFGCBCH?BHF$BEG;/8@8AG;8;4E5BE
GBJAB978A4E<G<F;6B?BAL58GJ88A4A74A7
G;8?8FF CBCH?4G87 47E4@4HG4E84*;8?4GG8EGJB E8:<BAF
=B<AG?L@478 HC J;4G 5864@8 58GJ88A  4A7 G;8
FG4G8B9)BHG;/8@8A&(/
-;4G <F E8@4E>45?8 45BHG $BEG; /8@8A <F G;4G <G
8@8E:879EB@G;86B??4CF8B9G;8%GGB@4A@C<E8 <A
4F G;8 BA?L 8AG<GL BA G;8 E45 C8A<AFH?4 9E88 9EB@ F<:
A<V64AG E<G<F; <AWH8A68 #46E<F  G J4F EH?87 58
GJ88A4A75LG;8S@4@4G8TA4@8?LGJBEH?8EF
7E4JA 9EB@ G;8 S04L7<T @<ABE 5E4A6; B9 );<4 F?4@ FB
64??87S<I8ET);<<G8FA4E8CH5?<64AE8IB?HG<BAE8
@BI87G;8 ?4FG04L7<@4@ E8FH?G<A: <A G;89BHA74G<BAB9
G;8 /( *;<F 8I8AG J4F 7<E86G?L 9B??BJ87 5L 4 6<I<? J4E
<AJ;<6; :LCG FHCCBEG87G;8 E8CH5?<64A F<78J;<?8 )4H7<
E45<44A7G;8+A<G87!<A:7B@ +!546>874 94<?87899BEG
GB E8FGBE8 G;8 04L7< @BA4E6;L 9G8E G;8 8A7 B9 G;8 J4E
*;8E88K<FGFABF<A:?84668CG87E45GE4AF6E<CG<BAFG4A74E7*;HFG;8FC8??<A:B9E45A4@8F4A7?B64?<G<8F7<998EF<AA:?<F;?4A:H4:8
FBHE68FA477<G<BA7<998E8AG4668AGFB9G;8E45<6?4A:H4:8J<G;<A/8@8A4?FBE8FH?G<A4?G8EA4G<I8GE4AF6E<CG<BAF*;86HEE8AGC4C8E
HF8FG;8@BFG6B@@BAGE4AF6E<CG<BAFBJ8I8E7<998E8AGFC8??<A:F@<:;G58HF8778C8A7<A:BAG;8DHBG87FBHE68*;HFG;8GJB
FC8??<A:FB9G;8A4@8S)4?8;T4A7S)4?<;T5BG;E898EGBG;89BE@8E/8@8A<&E8F<78AG?<57H??4;)4?8;
*;804L7<F9BE@4@<ABE5E4A6;B9);<4F?4@4A74E8HA<DH8GB/8@8A*;8L7<998EFH5FG4AG<4??L9EB@S*J8?I8ET);<4F<AE4DE4A4A7
"854ABA*;89BE@8E58?<8I8G;4G04L7<<5A?<<5AHF4LAF;BH?7;4I8588AG;8E<:;G9H?V9G;);<4<@4@;8A68G;8G8E@S<I8ETJ;<?8
G;8?4GG8E58?<8I8<AG;8@LFG<64?7<F4CC84E4A68B9G;8GJ8?9G;<@4@Q*J8?I8EFR;4I846BAW<6G87E8?4G<BAF;<CJ<G;)HAA<#HF?<@F58
64HF8B9G;8@4EGLE7B@B9@4@?<RFFBAHF4LAG;8:E4A7FBAB9#H;4@@474G!4E54?4E4D<AG;8L84E4LC
*BCHG<G7<998E8AG?LG;804L7<F4A7);4VR<FB9/8@8A4E86?BF8E<AG8E@FB9E8?<:<BHF7B6GE<A8G;4A<FG;864F8<ABG;8EGE47<G<BAF-8FG8EA
=BHEA4?<F@E8CBEG<A:G;8J4E<A/8@8A4FC4EGB94E8:<BA4?6BAW<6G58GJ88A)HAA<F4A7);<4F<F<AG;<FF8AF8@<F?847<A:


EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 2
Map 1. Topography of Yemen.
BHEG8FLB9&EB9&4CBEA*;85C4AL48C4EG@8AGB98B:E4C;L4A7AI<EBA@8AG4?&?4AA<A:*BJFBA+A<I8EF<GL
BEG;8BA?<A8I8EF<BA6?<6>9BE8A?4E:8@8AG
<A G;8 I<6GBE<BHF E8CH5?<64AE8:<@8<A $BEG; /8@8A
@4A4:87GB5E<A:04L7<F4A7);4VR<FGB:8G;8E*;8/(58
64@8@BE86BAFB?<74G877HE<A: G;8 CE8F<78A6L B95E4;<@
4?4@7<58GJ88A4A7?4@7<<FFG<??5EB47?L
6E87<G87 4F G;8 VEFG <A7<I<7H4? GB @4FG8E @B78EA /8@8A<
@4FFCB?<G<6F<AHA<9L<A:I4E<BHFE8:<BA4?6BAFG<GH8A6<8F<A
G;8 F8EI<68 B9 A4G<BA 5H<?7<A: 9G8E ;<F 4FF4FF<A4G<BA <A
 4A7 9B??BJ<A: 4 GE4AF<G<BA C8E<B7 G;8 ?BA:FG4A7<A:
)4?8;&E8F<78A6LFG4EG87B99<AABE78EGBC8EC8GH4G8
;<FEH?8 )4?8; 64@8 GB E8?L BA 8I8EF;<9G<A:4??<4A68FJ<G;
7B@8FG<64A78KG8EA4?46GBEF8ABG45?L94<?87GB:4<AC8E
FBA4?6E87<5<?<GL4F4A<@C4EG<4?46GBE4?BA:G;8?<A8FB9;<F
CE87868FFBE4?4@7<
G F;BH?7 58 ABG87 G;4G CB?<G<64? 6?84I4:8F <A $BEG;
/8@8A6BAG<AH8GB FGEBA:?LBI8E?4CJ<G;:8B:E4C;<64?984
GHE8F*;8ABEG;8EACEBI<A68B9)44745BE78E<A:)4H7<E4
5<44@BHAGFGB4S04L7<;84EG?4A7T)?<:;G?L 9HEG;8E FBHG;
5HGABEG; B9 G;8 64C<G4? )4A44 G;8 4F;<74A74><?GE<54?
6BA9878E4G<BAF 4?FB 04L7< 4E8 F8GG?87 #4AL B5F8EI8EF
6BAF<78E87G;8 ?BA:G8E@ ?8478EB9 G;8 4F;<7 GE<54? 6BA
9878E4G<BA );4L>; 57H??4; 5A HF4LA 4?;@4E 7<87
4FG;8@BFGCBJ8E9H?F<A:?846GBE<A/8@8AF G;8
?8478E B9 G;8 G;8A @BFG 6B;8E8AG GE<54? A8GJBE> ;8 J4F
HFH4??L 58?<8I87 GB 58 C?4687 45BI8 )4?8; <A G;8 <A9BE@4?
CB?<G<64?;<8E4E6;LB9G;86BHAGEL
"BB><A: 4G /8@8ARF 7<998E8AG :8B:E4C;<64? E8:<BAF G;8
ABEG;8EA4A768AGE4?;<:;?4A7FHCGB@8G8EF4?G<GH78
4E804L7<F8GG?87J;<?8G;8FBHG;8EA@<7?4A7F4A76B4FG4?
MBA8F4E8 @BFG?L );4VR<F8GG?87 *;8 );4VR<F 4 @<ABE F86G
J<G;<AG;8)HAA<#HF?<@GE47<G<BA9BE@4ABI8E4??@4=BE<GL
B9G;8 ABEG;8EA CBCH?4G<BA *;8L4E8@BFG?LF8GG?87<AG;8
4E84FFBHG;B9G;864C<G4?)4A444EBHA7G;86<GLB9*4<M4A7
<A G;8 6B4FG4? 4E84F 946<A: G;8 (87 )84 *;8 FBHG;8EA E8
:<BAFB9 /8@8AG;89BE@8E&(/4E8<AGHEA BI8EJ;8?@
<A:?L F8GG?87 5L );4VR<F *;8E8 4?FB 8K<FGF 4 G;<E7 @H6;
F@4??8EF86GB9F;@48?<G8FF8GG?87<AG;8ABEG;
F 4?E847L FG4G87 45BI8 G;8 46478@<6 ?<G8E4GHE8 BA
/8@8A :8A8E4??L J4EAF 4:4<AFG HF<A: F86G 7<6;BGB@<8F GB
8KC?4<ACB?<G<64?4A786BAB@<66BAW<6GGF;BH?7G;8E89BE8
58 FGE8FF87 G;4G 04L7<F 4A7 );4VR<F 5BG; 9BE@ @<ABE<G<8F
J<G;<A G;8<E E8FC86G<I8 E8?<:<BHF GE47<G<BAF 4A7 ;4I8 588A
@B78E4G8 <A G8E@F B9 G;8<E ?<@<G87 7B6GE<A4? 7<998E8A68F
J;8A 6B@C4E87 GB BG;8E #HF?<@ 6BHAGE<8F G ;4F 9HEG;8E
588AFH::8FG87G;4GS04L7<);4VR<CB?<G<6FJ8E8?8FF4@4G
G8EB9 E8?<:<BHF F86G4E<4A<F@ G;4A G;8LJ8E84E8W86G<BAB9
G;84:8B?77<I<F<BA58GJ88A;<:;?4A74A7@<7?4A76B4FG4?
E8:<BAFB9/8@8AT4LC<A4??L<G<F<@CBEG4AG
GBABG8G;4GG;8 04L7<;<:;?4A7F;4I8;<FGBE<64??L588A 4F
FB6<4G87J<G; GE<54?4HG;BE<GL4A7J4EE<BEGE47<G<BAF J;<?8
G;8 );4VR< @<7 4A7 ?BJ?4A7F ;4I8 588A 4FFB6<4G87 J<G;
GE4784A76B@@8E68
#BI<A: 58LBA7 G;8F8 SGE47<G<BA4?T E8:<BA4? 4A7 F86G
54F87 7<I<F<BAF G;8 6BHAGELRF S@B78EAT CB?<G<6F 4?FB <A
6?H78FCB?<G<64?C4EGL46GBEFA4@8?LG;864G6;4??S8A8E4?
&8BC?8RF BA:E8FFT & G;4G HF87 GB 58 4FFB6<4G87 J<G;
9BE@8E&E8F<78AG)4?8;4FG;8C4EGLB9CBJ8E)<A68G;8?4G
G8ERF78@<F8 G;8 & ;4F 6B??4CF87 <AGB 7<998E8AG G8A78A
6<8F)B@8 &8?8@8AGF;4I8FH5F8DH8AG?L586B@8 4FFB
6<4G87J<G;G;8 BHG;<F ABG;8E <AWH8AG<4? C4EGLHF87GB
58G;8)4H7<FCBAFBE87S/8@8A<BA:E8:4G<BA9BE(89BE@T
BE4?F?4;&4EGLJ;<6;J4F 9BE@87<A 4F4A8KC?<6
<G?LF?4@<FG C4EGL ?87 5LG;8G;8A4F;<7 GE<54? ?8478E 5
7H??4;4?;@4E<A4??L G;8 /8@8A<)B6<4?<FG &4EGL/)&
E8CE8F8AG87G;8 9BE@8EFBHG;8EAE8:<@8G;4G J4F HAG<?<GF
7<FFB?HG<BA<AAB@<A4??L#4EK<FG"8A<A<FG<ABE<8AG4
G<BA
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 3
*;8HA<V64G<BA B9 G;8 GJB /8@8A< FG4G8F C4EG<4??L
64@845BHG 5864HF8G;8FBHG;8EAE8:<@8;47588A F;4>8A
5L 4  <AGE4C4EGL J4E <A J;<6; BA8 /)& 946G<BA G;8
BA8?875L?<$4F<E#B;4@87J;<6;<A6?H78747<<A4=H
A<BE64C46<GLJ4F@<?<G4E<?L78984G875L4ABG;8E/)&:EBHC
G;86BAW<6GJ4F@BFG?L 7E<I8A 5L GE<54? E4G;8EG;4A<78B
?B:<64?946GBEF)HEI<IBEFB9G;878984G87FBHG;8EA/)&?<
$4F<E946G<BA<A6?H7<A: 47< W87 GB G;8 ABEG; 4A7FH5F8
DH8AG?L9BE@874A<AG8E8FG:EBHC?B55L<A:9BEHA<V64G<BAB9
G;8GJB /8@8A<FG4G8F #BE8 <@CBEG4AG?L;BJ8I8E<G ;47
586B@8>ABJAF<A68G;8F86BA7;4?9B9G;8 FG;4GF<:
A<V64AG 8A8E:L E8FBHE68F B<? 4A7 :4F 4E8 ?B64G87 <A G;8
#4E<54A7);45J4;CEBI<A68F?B64G874?BA:G;8G;8A<AGE4
/8@8A< 5BE78E (8?<89J85  +A<9L<A: G;8 GJB FG4G8F
4CC84E874F4A868FF4ELCB?<G<64?CE86BA7<G<BAGB89986G<I8?L
8KC?B<GG;8A4GHE4?E8FBHE68F
C4EG 9EB@ <GF E8FBHE68 54F8 /8@8A <F 4?FB B9 ;<:;
:8BFGE4G8:<6 4A7 :8B86BAB@<6 F<:A<V64A68 )GE4G8:<64??L
/8@8ARFFBHG;J8FG8EA6B4FG4?F;BE8FBI8EF88458?#4A
785 S4G8 B9 *84EFT 4 ><?B@8G8E J<78 F84 EBHG8 6BA
A86G<A:G;8(87)84J<G;G;8 H?9 B9 78A 4A7 G;8A7<4A
%684A*;<FF;<CC<A:EBHG8<FBA8 B9 G8AS6;B>8CB<AGFTB9
<AG8EA4G<BA4?GE478A4@8?LG;84G8 E8CE8F8AGF G;8 @4=BE
GE478 EBHG8 58GJ88A G;8 #87<G8EE4A84A )84 I<4 G;8 )H8M
4A4?4A7 F<4 *;8 BCCBF<G8 F;BE8 B9 G;8 /8@8A<6;B>8
CB<AG 58?BA:F GB G;8 FG4G8 B9 =<5BHG< 4 9BE@8E E8A6;
6B?BALJ;<6;FG<??;BFGF 4E8A6;@<?<G4EL54F8 G;8?4E:8FG
BHGF<78 B9 @4<A?4A7 E4A68 A 477<G<BA =<5BHG< ;BHF8F
C8E@4A8AG +) G4?<4A 4C4A8F8 4A7 ;<A8F8 @<?<G4EL
54F8F4FJ8??4F4G8@CBE4EL8E@4A)C4A<F;4A7*HE><F;
@<?<G4ELCE8F8A68*;<F;84IL@<?<G4EL5H<?7HC<FHFH4??L78
F6E<5874F@BG<I4G875LG;8FGEH::?84:4<AFGC<E46L<AJ4G8EF
B99 G;8 F;BE8F B9 =<5BHG<RF FBHG;8EA A8<:;5BE<A: FG4G8 B9
)B@4?<4J;<6;;4F588A78I4FG4G875L786478FB96<I<?J4E
BJ8I8E<G4?FBHA78EF6BE8FG;8F<:A<V64AGFGE4G8:<6I4?H8
B96BAGEB??<A:/8@8A<6B4FG4?4E84F
#BE8BI8EG;878G46;87/8@8A<<F?4A7B9)B6BGE4?B64G87
B99G;8FBHG;8EA6B4FGB9/8@8A<AG;84CCEB46;GBG;8H?9
B978A<F4?FBB96BAF<78E45?8:8BFGE4G8:<6I4?H8AE868AG
G<@8FG;8 <F?4A7 ;4F 8KC8E<8A687<A6HEF<BAF B9)4H7< +)
4A7 @<E4G< @<?<G4EL 9BE68F )4H7< 4A7 + @<?<G4EL HA<GF
4E8 6HEE8AG?L FG4G<BA87 BA G;8 <F?4A7 ?B64G87 <A G;8 68A
G8EB9F<:A<V64AGB<?EBHG8F#4=BE ;<A8F8E8:<BA4?<AI8FG
@8AGF FH6; 4F G;8 ;<A8F89HA787 &4><FG4A< ;4E5BE CEB
=86GB9J474EG;8;<A8F8B<?8KC?BE4G<BA<A )B@4?<?4A7
4A7 G;8 ;<A8F8 <A9E4FGEH6GHE8 4A7 ;4E5BE CEB=86GF <A E
<GE844A7G;<BC<44E84?FB?B64G87<AG;8I<6<A<GLB9)B6BGE4
*;HF9HGHE86BAG8FGBI8E6BAGEB?B9G;8<F?4A76BH?778I8?BC
<AGB 4ABG;8E 6BAW<6G FCBG J<G; E8:<BA4? 4A7 :?B54? E8C8E
6HFF<BAF
*HEA<A: GB :8B86BAB@<6F G;8E8 8K<FGF 4 ?BA:FG4A7<A:
7854G845BHG/8@8ARFCBG8AG<4?4F4AB<?4A7:4FCEB7H68E
*;88K<FG<A:B<?4A7:4FV8?7F4E8?B64G87<AG;8E8:<BAFB9
? 4J9 #4E<5 );45J4A 4A7 47E4@BHG G;89BE@8E GJB
?B64G87<AG;89BE@8EABEG;4A7G;8?4GG8EGJB<AG;89BE@8E
FBHG;G A887F GB 58FGE8FF87 G;4G +) )BI<8G<AG;8 ?4G8
F4A47<4A4A7;<A8F8B<?6B@C4A<8F;4I84??6BA
7H6G87FB@8FHEI8LF4?G;BH:;<A9BE@4G<BA45BHGG;8@4:
A<GH78B97<F6BI8E87B<?4A7:4FV8?7F<FABGCH5?<6?L4I4<?
45?84A7 4??7E<??<A:46G<I<G<8F;4I8FGBCC87F<A687H8
GBG;8 J4E /8@8ARF BI8E4?? F<:A<V64A68 9BE:?B54? B<? 4A7
:4FFHCC?<8F;4FFB94E588A@B78FG4A7FB@88K<FG<A:V8?7F
4E8ABJ4?E847L6?BF8GB8K;4HFG<BABJ8I8E4:8B?B:<64?
FHEI8LFH::8FG87 G;4GS1G2J8?I8BAF;BE84A7B99F;BE8F87
<@8AG4EL1B<?:4F254F<AF;4I8588A<78AG<V87<A/8@8AU
1%2A?L GJB U 4E8 J8?? 8KC?BE87 G;8 E8FG E8@4<A 9EBAG<8E
54F<AFTF)4EHE<)BE>;45<
A7887G;8E88K<FGF4:4C58GJ88AG;8B9V6<4??L46>ABJ?
87:87E8FBHE6854F8B9G;86BHAGEL4A7@H6;;<:;8EHAB9
V6<4?8FG<@4G8FA946G@4E<G<@8 MBA8F B9 /8@8A4A7 G;8
?4E:8E (87 )84 4E84 5BE78E<A: /8@8ARF J8FG8EA 6B4FG?<A8
4E84?E847L>ABJAGB6BAG4<AE<6;B<?4A7:4F78CBF<GFK
C?BE4G<BA4A77E<??<A:BHGF<78B9/8@8ARF(87)84MBA8;4F
4?E847L FG4EG87 <AIB?I<A: )4H7< $BEJ8:<4A ;<A8F8 4A7
4A47<4A 6B@C4A<8F 8AA<  C4EG 9EB@ 4668FF GB
@<A8E4?E8FBHE68FCE<A6<C4??LB<?:4F4A7CE86<BHF@8G4?F
G;86BAGEB?B9/8@8ARF;4E5BEF6B4FG?<A8F4A7VF;<A:4E84F
<F 4?FB I8EL F<:A<V64AG BJ8I8E 9BE8<:A G4>8BI8E B9
/8@8ARF <A9E4FGEH6GHE84A7 E8FBHE68F BE 4A 8KG8EA4??L8A
9BE687A8J7<I<F<BAB9G;86BHAGEL<AGBABEG;8EA4A7FBHG;
8EA MBA8F B9 <AWH8A68 BE F8C4E4G8 FG4G8F JBH?7 9HA74
@8AG4??LF;<9GG;8E8:<BA4?54?4A68B9CBJ8E*;HF8KG8EA4?
<AG8EI8AG<BA<F5BHA7GBGE<::8EA8JEBHA7FB96BAW<6G
A CONFLICT MATRIX OF YEMEN
ABE78E GB4??BJ4J8??EBHA7874A4?LF<FB9G;8 /8@8A<
64F8F<A68<AG8E8FGFB946GBEF4GI4E<BHF?8I8?FA4@8?L
?B64?E8:<BA4? 4A7 :?B54? @HFG4?? 58 6BAF<78E87 BEG;8
CHECBF8B9G;86HEE8AG4EG<6?8 G;8 ?B64? 46GBEF 4E8 78VA87
4F/8@8A<A4G<BA4?F4?G;BH:;G;8L@<:;G4?FB9BE@4??<4A68
J<G;8KG8EA4?9BE8<:AA4G<BA4?4A7BEGE4AFA4G<BA4?46GBEF
*;<F <A8I<G45?L E8FH?GF <A 7<9V6H?GL <A 8KC?4<A<A: G;8<E 46
G<BAF<AG8E@FB9CHE8?L?B64?7LA4@<6F*;HFG;8E8:<BA4?
46GBEF@HFG4?FB584FF8FF87*;8F8<A6?H78G;8E45FG4G8F
B9 G;8 #<77?8 4FG 4A7 G;8 7<E86G C8E<C;8EL B9 ABAE45
FG4G8F*HE>8LFE48?4A7E4AW4A><A:G;8@<AA85HF6;
C
AG8E@FB9G;8:?B54??8I8?G;8G;E886BAG8@CBE4EL:E84G
CBJ8EF A4@8?L ;<A4 (HFF<4 4A7 G;8 +) J<?? 58 8K
4@<A87 @BA: G;8F8 G;E88 CBJ8EF G;8 +) <AWH8A68 <F
FG<?? 7B@<A4AG F<A68 @BFG E45 FG4G8F ;4I8 8AG8E87 ?BA:
G8E@C4GEBA6?<8AGE8?4G<BAF;<CFJ<G;+)46GBEF<A86BAB@<6
4A7@<?<G4EL FC;8E8F(HFF<49BE@8E?LG;8)BI<8G+A<BA <F
4ABG;8ECB?<G<64? 4A7 @<?<G4EL 46GBE <AG;8 E8:<BA 5HG G;8
6BHAGELRFEB?8 ;4F 786?<A87<A6B@C4E<FBAGBG;8B?7-4E
8E4J<G;G;8ABG45?88K68CG<BAB9G;8)LE<4A64F8F<A68
<A4??L ;<A4 ;4F E868AG?L 8@8E:87 4F 4 I8EL F<:A<V64AG
86BAB@<646GBE<AG;8E45E8:<BA*;86BHAGELRFS8?G4A7
(B47A<G<4G<I8T(C?468F@4=BE8@C;4F<FBA8KC4A7<A:
86BAB@<6<AG8E78C8A78A6<8F J<G; E45 FG4G8F 4A7 9E<64A
6BHAGE<8F ?B64G87 <A G;8 BEA B9 9E<64 <A G;8 <@@87<4G8
A8<:;5BE;BB7 B9 /8@8A <A4??L FB@8 BG;8E % 6BHA
GE<8F 4?FB C?4L 4 F86BA74EL C4EG <A G;8 E8:<BA )<A68 G;8<E
EB?8<F ?<@<G87 <A6B@C4E<FBAGBG;8:E84G CBJ8EFG;8L4E8
ABG9B6HF87BA<AG;8FH5F8DH8AG4A4?LF<F
(4G;8E G;4A 4FFH@<A: 4AL CE88K<FG<A: ;<8E4E6;L 58
GJ88A G;8 ?B64? E8:<BA4? 4A7 :?B54? 4A4?LG<64? ?8I8?F 4
C8E@4A8AGWH6GH4G<BA <A G;8<E E8?4G<I8F<:A<V64A68F;BH?7
5846>ABJ?87:87#BE8BI8E7<998E8AGG<@89E4@8FA4@8?L
?BA:G8E@@87<H@G8E@4A7F;BEGG8E@4??<AWH8A68G;8
8I8AGF<A/8@8A-;8AB5F8EI<A:BA:B<A:8I8AGF4A4?LFGF
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 4
Table 1. Con8ict Matrix of Yemen
Local factors Regional factors Global factors
Short-term 1 4 7
Medium-term 2 5 8
Long-term 3 6 9
KC?4A4G<BABEG;8CHECBF8B96B@CE8;8AF<I86BAW<6G4A4?LF<F846;B9G;8A<A8V8?7FB9G;8@4GE<K@HFG586BAF<78E87??A<A8V8?7F4E8@HGH4??L<AG8E78C8A78AG4A7ABCE88K<FG
<A:4A4?LG<64?;<8E4E6;L<F<@C?<87
F;BH?7 G;8E89BE8 58 4J4E8 B9 G;8 FGEH6GHE4? 546>:EBHA7
I4E<45?8F A4@8?L ?BA:G8E@ EBBG 64HF8F B9 /8@8ARF J84>
FG4G8;BB7G;4GJ8E84?E847L<AC?468?BA:589BE8G;8FG4EGB9
G;8J4EF88*45?8
A6BA6?HF<BAG;86BAW<6G@4GE<KCE8F8AG87;8E84A7HG<
?<M87 <A G;8 A8KG F86G<BA 4??BJF 9BE4 7LA4@<6 <AG8ECE8G4
G<BAB9 :8BCB?<G<64? 6BAW<6G(4G;8E G;4A F<@C?L 4FFH@<A:
VK87FGE4G8:<8FB9 G;8 I4E<BHF 46GBEFG;8@4GE<K 46>ABJ?
87:8FG;4G<A7<I<7H4?SE4G<BA4?T46G<BA5LFG4G8FH5FG4G8
4A7 ABAFG4G8 46GBEF 64A CEB7H68 G;8 @HGH4? 5?B6>4:8 BE
8I8A78FGEH6G<BAB9G;8C4EG<8F<AIB?I87
LITERATURE REVIEW: CAUSES OF YEMEN’S
STATE FRAGILITY
*;<FF86G<BAE8I<8JF FB@8 46478@<6 466BHAGFB9/8@8A
54F87BA4?BA:<GH7<A4? 4A7 @H?G<7<F6<C?<A4EL 4CCEB46;<A
BE78E GB GE468 @4=BE 64HF8F B9 /8@8A< FG4G8 9E4:<?<GL 4A7
FH5F8DH8AG6B??4CF8*;8A8KGG;E88FH5F86G<BAF?BB>4G?B
64? E8:<BA4? 4A7 :?B54? <AWH8A68F G;4G G4>8A GB:8G;8E
4??BJ 4 58GG8E HA78EFG4A7<A: B9 G;8 @H?G<C?8 BI8E?4CC<A:
64HF8FB96E<F<F<A/8@8A*;8VEFGFH5F86G<BA7<F6HFF8F?B
64?946GBEF J;<?8G;8GJBFH5F8DH8AG FH5F86G<BAF9B6HFBA
E8:<BA4?4A7:?B54?946GBEF
Local factors
*;8 9BHE FBHE68F HG<?<M87 ;8E8 J8E8 CH5?<F;87 5L 4A
:LCG<4ACH5?<647@<A<FGE4G<BAF6;B?4E4E<G<F;4AG;EBCB?
B:<FG 4 $BEG; @8E<64A CB?<G<64? F6<8AG<FG 4A7 4 M86;
5BEA ;<FGBE<4A E8FC86G<I8?L ?H@<  4L 
E8F6;  ?MM4M<  *;8F8 466BHAGF 9EB@ 7<9
98E8AG46478@<67<F6<C?<A8F 6BI8EI4E<BHFG<@8 9E4@8F 4A7
6B@C?8@8AG 846; BG;8E *;8L 4?FB ;<:;?<:;G FB@8 B9 G;8
?BA:FG4A7<A:6BAGEBI8EF<8F<AG;8F6;B?4EF;<CBA/8@8A
*B58:<A J<G; ?MM4M< ;<F 466BHAG 9B6HF87 FB?8?L BA
G;89BE@8E$BEG;/8@8AG;8/(BHG?<A<A:G;8G;8A54F<6
FB6<8G4? 6?84I4:8F A4@8?L G;8 F86G 7<I<F<BAF 58GJ88A 04
L7<F);4VR<F4A7G;<E7?LG;8@H6;F@4??8E:EBHCB9F;
@48?<G8F8FGE8FF87G;8 >8LEB?8B9G;8GJB@BFG<AWH8A
G<4?04L7<GE<54? 6BA9878E4G<BAF B9 4F;<7 4A74><?<A G;8
CB?<G<64?CBJ8E54?4A68 B9 $BEG; /8@8A?MM4M<4E:H87
G;4G 4A 4A4?LG<64? 9B6HF BA E8?<:<BHF F86G 4A7 GE<54? ?<A>
4:8F J4F @BFG 4CCEBCE<4G8 S12?4FF<V64G<BA 466BE7<A: GB
E8?<:<BHF6B@@HA<G<8F4A7 GE<54? 58?BA:<A: ABG466BE7<A:
GB<A6B@8?8I8?F<FCHG9BEJ4E7 5864HF8G8AF<BAF4A7 6BA
W<6GFJ<G;<AG;8CB?<G<64?47@<A<FGE4G<I8FLFG8@586B@84C
C4E8AG;8E8A G;<F 6BAG8KG BG;8E CBFF<5?8 FGE4G<V64G<BAF
FH6;4FG;86BAGEB?B9G;8@84AFB9CEB7H6G<BABE?4A7BJA
8EF;<C 4E8 <EE8?8I4AG 5864HF8 G;8E8 8K<FGF ;4E7?L 4AL <A
7HFGE<4?F86GBE <A/8@8A4A77<FC4E<G<8F <AG;84:E<6H?GHE4?
F86GBE 4CC84E GB 8K8E6<F8 AB F<:A<V64AG FB6<8G4? EB?8T?
MM4M<CCP
EB@ ?MM4M<RF C8EFC86G<I8 G;8 CB?<G<6F B9 $BEG;
/8@8AJ4F@BFG?L78VA875L6BAW<6GF58GJ88AGE47<G<BA4?
GE<54?CBJ8EFGEH6GHE8F 4A7 G;8S@B78EATFG4G8 *;8 ?4GG8E
J4F58<A: <@CBF87 5L4 :EBHC B9 :LCG<4A 8KC8EGF7HE<A:
G;8 F BJ8I8E G;<F 47@<A<FGE4G<I8 8KC8E<@8AG 7<F
C?4L87 4 ?46> B9 6BA68EA 9BE ?B64? E84?<G<8F G BA?L <AGEB
7H687 AB@<A4? FGEH6GHE8F B9 @B78EA FG4G8;BB7 FH6; 4F
@<A<FGE<8F4A7CH5?<6F86GBE5HE84H6E46<8FGB$BEG;/8@8A
BJ8I8EG;84HG;BERFV8?7JBE>FH::8FG87G;4G8@C?BL88F
B9$BEG;/8@8ARFE868AG?L9BHA787@<A<FGE<8FJ8E8 HA45?8
GB8KC?4<AG;8<E BJA =B5 E8FCBAF<5<?<G<8F4A7 ;47 588AE8
6EH<G8754F87BAG;8<EGE<54?BE94@<?L?<A>FA946GEB?87<F
GE<5HG<BAJ<G;<A G;8 S@B78EATFG4G8 E8W86G87 CE88K<FG<A:
7<I<F<BAFB9E8FBHE68F4A7CBJ8E4@BA:GE47<G<BA4??8478E
F;<C:EBHCF*;8F86BAF<FG87CE<@4E<?LB904L7<GE<54?8?<G8F
8AGE8A6;87 <A G;8 ABEG;8EA 4A7 68AGE4? ;<:;?4A7F 4A7 B9
);4VR< GE47<A: 4A7 6B@@8E6<4? 8?<G8F 6BA68AGE4G87 <A G;8
68AGE4?@<7?4A7F
EH6<4??L?MM4M<FH::8FG87G;4GABGE4AF98EB9?BL4?GL
GBJ4E7G;8 FG4G8 BE :EBJG;B9FG4G864C46<GLBI8EG<@8;47
L8GB66HEE87A477<G<BAG;8FG4G8RF64C45<?<GLGB8KGE46GE8
FBHE68F9EB@ FB6<8GL5L G4K4G<BAB9G;84:E<6H?GHE4?F86GBE
4A7B9GE478EFR46G<I<G<8FE8@4<A87I8ELJ84>BAI8EF8?L
FG4G8 4HG;BE<G<8F J8E8 6B@C8??87 GB 7<FGE<5HG8 4668FF GB
CH5?<68@C?BL@8AG<A6?H7<A:G;8 4E@879BE68F<A6BAFH?
G4G<BAJ<G;G;8 GE<54? 4HG;BE<G<8F 4A7;47GB B998E S?BL4?GL
C4L@8AGFTGBG;8CBJ8E9H?ABEG;8EAGE<54??8478EF <ABE78E
GB4IB<74E@87 E8F<FG4A68 *;HF FG4G8 4HG;BE<GLE8@4<A87
?<@<G87 4A7 6BAG8FG87 4G 4?? G<@8F <A4??L?MM4M< FH:
:8FG87 G;4G 9HGHE8 FG4G85H<?7<A: <A $BEG; /8@8A JBH?7
;4I8GB9B6HFBA4AQ4CCEBCE<4G88KC4AF<BAB9BCCBEGHA<G<8F
9BE CB?<G<64? C4EG<6<C4G<BA B9 G;8 GE47<G<BA4? :EBHCF 1<8
GE<58F2GB J84>8AG;8<E4HGBAB@L4A7GB 786E84F8G;8G8A
F<BAF J<G;<A G;8 8K<FG<A: 1FG4G82 <AFG<GHG<BAFR ?MM4M<
C
ABG;8E CEB@<A8AG 4HG;BE BA /8@8A J4F 5L 6BAGE4FG
??8E@4A?4A:H4:8GE4AF?4G<BAF4E85LG;84HG;BE
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 5
@BE8;8F<G4AGGB<@CBF84ALS:E4A7A4EE4G<I8TBAG;86BHA
GELRF ;<FGBEL FH::8FG<A: G;4G S1H2A<9L<A: 9BE@F B9 ;<FGBEL
JBE>J8??9BEHA<9L<A:<AFG<GHG<BAFP@<A<FGE<8FFG4G8FFG4A
74E7<M87F6;BB?FLFG8@FP5HG/8@8AJBE>F?4E:8?L <ABG;8E
G8E@FTE8F6;CKIE8F6;5EB47?L4:E887J<G;?
MM4M<RF I<8J G;4G GE<54? FGEH6GHE8F J8E8 4 @4<A 8KC?4A4
GBEL946GBE78VA<A:FB6<4?E8?4G<BAF<A$BEG;/8@8A/8G;8
FGE8FF87G;4GG;<FJ4FABG BE AB ?BA:8EG;864F89BEFB@8
68AGE4?4A7 G;8 FBHG;8EA E8:<BAF E8F6;  C  8
4?FB7BJAC?4L87G;86?84I4:858GJ88A 04L7<F 4A7 );4VR<F
;B?7<A: G;4G S1G2;8 7<998E8A68 58GJ88A QF86GFRJ4F F8?7B@
7B6GE<A8TE8F6;CC
L 6BAGE4FG E8F6; FGE8FF87 G;8 F;4??BJ EBBGF B9 G;8
@B78EA FG4G8 4A7 <GF 6BA6B@<G4AG SVF64? 6E<F<FT A4@8?L
CH5?<6FH5F<7<8FC4<7GBGE<54?F;8<>;F9BEG;8<E?BL4?GLJ8E8
<AG;884E?LF6BAF<78E45?L?4E:8EG;4AG;8FG4G8RF4:E<
6H?GHE4?G4K 54F8 *;HF G;8 @4G8E<4?FHEI<I4? B9FG4G8 4A7
FB6<8GL78C8A787BA8KG8EA4? <A6B@8FH6;4FE8@<GG4A68F
B9/8@8A<F JBE><A: <A A8<:;5BE<A: )4H7< E45<4 4A7 8?F8
J;8E8 4A7 9BE8<:A 9HA7F :E4AG87 GB /8@8A< 8?<G8F <A G;8
6BAG8KGB978I8?BC@8AG4A7FG4G85H<?7<A:CEB=86GFE8F6;
CC E8F6;9HEG;8E FH::8FG87 G;4G89
9BEGF4G4A4?LM<A:FG4G84A7GE<54?4HG;BE<G<8F<A78C8A78AG?L
9EB@846;BG;8EJ8E87BB@87GB94<?HE8A946GS1G2;8?<G8E
4GHE8784?FB9G8A<AG8E@FB9FG4G84:4<AFGGE<58<AC4EG<6H
?4E4F<9G;8F8J8E8F8C4E4G88AG<G<8F4A7G;847I4A68B9BA8
:8B:E4C;<64??L@84AGG;8BG;8ERFE8GE84GTE8F6;C

AG;86BAG8KGB9SF86HE<GLT58<A:<@CBF875LG;8FG4G8RF
4E@LBA GE<54?4E84F466BE7<A:GBE8F6;G;8F8BC8E4G<BAF
6BH?7 BA?L G4>8 C?468 5864HF8 G;8 GE<54? 4HG;BE<G<8F 6BA
7H6G87G;8@BAG;8<EBJAG8E@FA4@8?LSG;814E@L2@8A
J8E84??4F;<7<F1<8G;8@<?<G4E<?LFGEBA:8FGGE<54?6BA987
8E4G<BA<A $BEG;/8@8A24A7G;BF8 <A 6;4E:8B9G;8@6;B
F8A5LG;8);4L>;5HGG;8LJBE8HA<9BE@TE8F6;
C*BFH@HCE8F6; <AG8ECE8G87 /8@8ARF;<FGBEL4F
7E<I8A5LG;8@H?G<GH78B9?B64?46GBEF/8@8A<?8478EF4A7
G;8<EE8FC86G<I8CB?<G<6B86BAB@<6 CEB=86GF WH6GH4G8 J;<?8
FB6<8GL CE8I4<?F 9BE E84FBAF G;4G 4E8 58LBA7 G;8 E846; B9
G;8SFG4G8TP45BHGJ;BF88K<FG8A684F4F8C4E4G88AG<GL9EB@
BG;8ECBJ8EFGEH6GHE8FJ8F;BH?7<A4AL64F84?J4LFE8@4<A
F>8CG<64?
A4@BE8E868AGCB?<G<64?F6<8A68466BHAGG;8CB?<G<6FB9
CBFGHA<V87/8@8AJ4F8K4@<A8766BE7<A:GB4L
9BE@8E&E8F<78AG)4?8;BJ87;<F?BA:G8E@G8AHE84F?8478E
GB ;<F SBA4C4EG<FG FGL?8T <A EHAA<A: /8@8A< FG4G8 FGEH6
GHE8F)4?8;RFBE<:<A9EB@G;8)4A;4AGE<584F@4??FH5GE<58
B9G;84F;<7GE<54?6BA9878E4G<BA<A<G<4??LE8A78E87;<@4
E4G;8EJ84>CB?<G<64?V:HE8BJ8I8E;8C4G<8AG?L8KC4A787
;<FCBJ8E54F8HF<A:C4GEBA6?<8AGE8?4G<BAF4A7G;868AGE4?
FG4G8RF6BAGEB?B968EG4<AGLC8FB9E8FBHE68F4F478I<68GB6B
BCGBECHA<F;;<FCB?<G<64?6B@C8G<GBEF4L;4CG8E
F<ABG;8EFG4G8FB9G;8E45E8:<BAFH6;A8BC4GE<@B
A<4?EH?8 E898EFGBG;8 HF8B9<A9BE@4??BL4?G<8FBE<:<A4G<A:
<A6?4A GE<58 94@<?LE8:<BA4? 4A7 BG;8E CE88K<FG<A: A8G
JBE>F<A9BE@4?CB?<G<64?<AFG<GHG<BAFFH6;4FCB?<G<64?C4E
G<8FFG4G84A7@<?<G4EL5B7<8FBEC4E?<4@8AGF
)<:A<V64AG?L)4?8;ABE@4??L7<7ABGDH8FG<BAHA78E?L<A:
GE<54?4A7BG;8EGE47<G<BA4?CBJ8EFGEH6GHE8F4F?BA:4FG;8L
F8EI87G;8CHECBF8B98KC4A7<A:;<FC8EFBA4?C4GEBA6?<8AG
A8GJBE>S*;8FG4G8GE<54?E8?4G<BAF;<C<AG;8ABEG;8EA/(
6E84G87 4A HAFGEH6GHE87 CB?<G<64? FLFG8@ J;<6; B9G8A 4C
C84E876;4BG<6J;8A8I8E;<:;?4A7F;4L>;F46G876B8E6<I8?L
GBJ4E7 FG4G8 ?8478EF =< <0- :-4)<176;018 =4<15)<-4A ;-:>-,
<0-5=<=)416<-:-;<;7.<:1*)4)6,8741<1+)4-41<-;.:75<0-01/0
4)6, :-/176 U *;EBH:;BHG )4?<;RF EH?8 B9 ABEG; /8@8A
;8:BI8EA87J<G; G;8 @<A7F8G B9 4 GE<58F@4A 46G<A: 4F 4
:H4E7<4AB9 G;8 B?7 FG4GHF DHB J;8E8ABAGE<54?8?<G8F9EB@
@<7?4A74A76B4FG4?E8:<BAF@HFG466B@@B74G8G;8@F8?I8F
GB G;8 ;<:;?4A7 GE<58FT 4L  CC   8@C;4F<F
47787
A46E<G<64?<AF<:;G4L9HEG;8E6;4E:8FG;4GG;8CB?<G<64?
F68A849G8EHA<V64G<BA5864@8GBB6B@C?8KGB@4<AG4<AG;8
84E?<8EABEG;8EAFG4G8GE<54?A8GJBE>J<G;BHGGE<::8E<A:GBB
@H6; E8F<FG4A68 8?F8J;8E8 *;HF G;8 ?8A:G;L 4A7 5?BB7L
946G<BA4?<F@J<G;<AHA<V87/8@8A4A7G;8FG8C5LFG8C78
6?<A8B9)4?8;RF45<?<GLGB6BAGEB?G;8F<GH4G<BA7H8GBFC?<GF
4@BA:FG ;<F 9BE@8E FHCCBEG8EF <A6?H7<A: ABEG;8EA GE<54?
?8478EFABJ78@4A7F4CB?<G<64?4A786BAB@<67868AGE4?
<M4G<BA B9 G;8 6BHAGEL 4?BA: 9878E4? ?<A8F 4L  CC
P4L 9HEG;8E4E:H8FG;4G?B64?:BI8EA@8AGFGEH6
GHE8FF;BH?7 588@CBJ8E874A7E8FBHE68E<6;E8:<BAFAB
G45?LG;8FBHG;584??BJ87GB:4<A@BE86BAGEB?BI8EG;8<E
E8FBHE68FG;8E85LS7868AGE4?<M<A:786<F<BA@4><A:CBJ8EF
BHGF<78G;864C<G4?T4LCCP*;8
4HG;BE786?4E8FG;4GG;8E8 <F S?<GG?8 7BH5G G;4G G;8 FH668FF
BE 94<?HE8 B9 E85H<?7<A: /8@8ARF :BI8EA@8AG J<?? 78C8A7
BA;BJG;86BHAGELRF6B@C?8KE8:<BA4?7LA4@<6F 4E8@4A
4:87 4A7 ;BJ G;8 <FFH8F B9 9878E4?<F@ 4A7 ?B64? :BI8EA
@8AGCBJ8E4E8;4A7?87T4LC
GF;BH?758ABG87;BJ8I8EG;4GG;86BA68CGB9E8:<BA
4?<F@4F4FB?HG<BAGB<AG8EA4?6BAW<6GF<A/8@8A;4F588A
4GG46>87 5L BG;8E F6;B?4EF 4F 58<A: BI8E?LE87H6G<BA<FG GB
47I4A68BA:B<A:7854G8FBA;BJGBFG45<?<M8/8@8A<FG4G8
;BB7?<8*B58:<AJ<G;F6;B?4EFB9/8@8A<GE<54?
<F@;4I8FGE8FF87G;4GGE<54?FGEH6GHE8FCEBI<78@4AL8?45
BE4G8CEB687HE8F9BE 6BAW<6GE8FB?HG<BA *;8LFH::8FGG;4G
FH6;FGEH6GHE8F;4I8;<FGBE<64??L;8?C87GB788F64?4G8G8A
F<BAF58GJ88A7<998E8AG:EBHCF<A/8@8AG;8E85L4IB<7<A:
G;8HF8B9FG4G86B8E6<BA)4?@BA<8G4?CCP
*;8HAG8FG87 I<F<BA B9 9878E4?<F@ <A/8@8ABA G;8 BG;8E
;4A7 4CC84E87 GB E868AG B5F8EI8EF 4F C4EG 4A7 C4E68? B9
4 CBJ8E :E45 5L 47< 4A7 BG;8E 46GBEF GB 78?<I8E /8@8A<
J84?G; GB BHGF<78 <AG8E8FGF A C4EG<6H?4E 47<RF  4G
G8@CGGB<AGEB7H68E8:<BA4?<F@A4@8?LG;8CEB=86G877<I<
F<BAB9 /8@8A<AGBF<K 8KGE4BE7<A4E<?L HA8DH4? 9878E4?E8
:<BAF 6BA68AGE4G<A: @BFG B9 G;8 CBCH?4G<BA <A G;E88
ABEG;8EA 9878E4? 7<FGE<6GF 4A7 A84E?L 4?? B9 G;8 6HEE8AG?L
>ABJAA4GHE4?E8FBHE68F<A GJB FBHG;8EA 9878E4?7<FGE<6GF
5864@8<A<GF8?9BA8@4=BE64HF8B9;<F7BJA94??<AG;8FH5
F<@<?4EI<8J;4F@BE8E868AG?L588A8KCE8FF87<AG;86BAG8KGB94AG;EBCB?B:<64?E8F84E6;BAG;8BHG;<@BI8@8AGS*;<F8C<66BAW<6G
<FGBB?4E:8GB58E8479EB@4F<A:?8C8EFC86G<I8BA4F<A:?8QC?4G84HB94A4?LF<FRJ;8G;8EF86G4E<4AE8?<:<BHF86BAB@<6GE<54?BECB?<G<
64?TE4A7GC

EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 6
F8DH8AG?4E:8F64?8E8IB?G4:4<AFG;<FEH?8
BJ8I8E <A BE78E GB 4CCE86<4G8 J;L G;8 FB?HG<BA GB
/8@8ARF 7B@8FG<6 CEB5?8@F 64AABG 58 9BHA7 <A 6?8I8E 7B
@8FG<66BAFG<GHG<BA4?8A:<A88E<A:FH6;4FE8:<BA4?<F@BA8
@HFGE8GHEAGB4@BE86B@CE8;8AF<I84A4?LF<FB9 G;8GE4A
F<G<BAC8E<B79EB@)4?8;GB47<*B58:<AJ<G;4ALCBJ8E
9H?8K86HG<I8V:HE8J<G;<A/8@8AA868FF4E<?L;47GB54?4A68
58GJ88A7B@8FG<64A7 <AG8EA4G<BA4? <AG8E8FGF*;<F @84AG
C8E9BE@<A: 4 7H4? EB?8 B9 F4G<F9L<A: 7B@8FG<6 6?<8AGF 4A7
FGE<><A: 784?F J<G; 8KG8EA4? 46GBEF )4?8; HA78EFGBB7 G;4G
;<F I4?H8 4F 4 @<77?8@4A J<G; G;8 8KG8EA4? <AG8E8FGF 78
C8A787BA78?<I8E<A:<A5BG;7<E86G<BAFA4@8?LSG;8>8LGB
?BA:G8E@E8GHEAFBA<AI8FG@8AGFGB /8@8AJ4F FG45<?<GLT
?H@<C*;HF)4?8;;47588A4?J4LF>88AGB
78I8?BC6?BF8C8EFBA4?E8?4G<BAF;<CFGB+)CE8F<78AGFFH6;
4F HF; )E 4A7 %54@4 8 ;47 4??BJ87 +) 6BECBE4G<BAF
FH6;4FHAG%<??<A>87GBG;8HF;94@<?LGB8KC?BE84A7
8KGE46G/8@8A<B<?FBHE68FGBFGE8A:G;8A;<FCBF<G<BAJ<G;
+)786<F<BA@4>8EF?H@<CCP
/8G G;87B@8FG<66B4?<G<BAB9 <AG8E8FGFG;4G;478A45?87
)4?8;GB46G4F4A<AG8E?B6HGBEJ<G;BHGF<78CBJ8EF5864@8
8EB787 F<A68 G;8 ?4G8 F <F 84E?<8E 4??<4A68 J<G; 5
7H??4; 4?;@4E ;847 B9 G;8 4F;<7 GE<54? 6BA9878E4G<BA
J;BF8F?4@<FG4?F?4;C4EGLAB@<A4??L:BI8EA87<A46B4?<
G<BAJ<G;)4?8;RF&C4EGLF?BJ?L6B??4CF87*;864HF8B9
7<F4:E88@8AGFJ4F86BAB@<64?A4@8?LG;84?;@4E6?4ARF
<??8:4?F8??<A:B9/8@8A<B<?I<44"BA7BA54F87$BEJ8:<4A
VE@ 64??87 E647<4 ?H@<  C  B??BJ<A: G;8
784G;B94?;@4E<A)4?8;GHEA874:4<AFG;<F84E?<8E
4??<8FABJE8CE8F8AG875L4FBAB9G;878684F87);4L>;8
4?FB5EB>8J<G;8A8E4??<#H;F8A4@<?<G4EL V:HE8 G;4G
;8;4784E?<8E<A BE78E87 GB V:;GG;8BHG;< <AFHE
:8A6L<AG;8ABEG;8EA)4474CEBI<A685BE78E<A:)4H7<E4
5<4)4?8; FG4EG875?4@<A:;<F:8A8E4?9BE 6BEEHCG<BA<A4?
?<4A68J<G;G;84?;@4EF4FJ8??4F9BEG;8@<?<G4EL94<?HE8
GB78984GG;8BHG;<F?<#H;F8AG;8E89BE8=B<A87G;8
E8IB?G 4:4<AFG )4?8; 4A7 4G G;8 @B@8AG B9 JE<G<A: AB@<
A4??LFG<??F8EI8F4F47<RF78CHGL<A)4H7<8K<?8
EH6<4??L S)4?8;RF 7HG<9H??L <@C?8@8AG<A: # 4A7
-BE?74A> E847=HFG@8AG CEB:E4@FT ?H@<  C
4?FB HA78E@<A87 ;<F 84E?<8E CBCH?4E<GL J<G; /8@8A< FG4G8
8@C?BL88F*;8@4=BE<GLB9/8@8A<6<G<M8AF4A7 8FC86<4??L
LBHA:C8BC?8 4A7 G;BF8?<I<A:<AEHE4?4E84FFH998E879EB@
E87H687FG4G8FH5F<7<8F4A786BAB@<6F;B6>FAC4EG<6H?4E
/8@8ARFB<?E8I8AH8J4FHG<?<M87GBF86HE8G;8CB?<G<64??BL
4?GL B9 E8:<@8 9B??BJ8EF @H6; B9 <G 8A7<A: HC <A 9BE8<:A
466BHAGFE4G;8EG;4A<AI8FG87<A4CEB7H6G<I8@4AA8EBE
G;85H?>B9G;8CBCH?4G<BAG;886BAB@<654?4A68F;88GB9
G;8F4A7FJ4FG;4GCE<M8FEBF84I8E4:8<A6B@8F
786?<A874A7 LBHG; HA8@C?BL@8AGE846;87 E86BE7 ?8I8?F
#BE8BI8EG;84:E<6H?GHE4?F86GBEJ4FA8:?86G87E8FH?G<A:<A
/8@8ARF <A6E84F<A: 78C8A78A6L BA 9BB7 <@CBEGF*;8 HA
E8:H?4G87BI8EHF4:8B9J4G8E FHCC?<8F9BE:EBJ<A:SD4GT4
@<?7A4E6BG<6C?4AGJ;BF86;8J<A:E8?84F8F4FG<@H?4AG4A7
<F6HFGB@4EL<A /8@8A9HEG;8E6BAGE<5HG87GB 6;EBA<6 4A7
<A6E84F<A:?LF8I8E8J4G8EF;BEG4:8F,4E<F6B)4?8;RF
?4FG7<G6; 899BEGF GB 7E4J <A;<A4 5L B998E<A: I4E<BHF <A
I8FG@8AGBCCBEGHA<G<8F64@8GBB?4G8GB4??BJ;<@E8:4<A
<A:?8I8E4:8BI8EFHEEB:4G8FA4?G8EA4G<I8E847<A: @<:;G
58G;4G G;<F @BI84AABL87+)B5F8EI8EF FH9V6<8AG?L GBV
A4??L7EBC;<@
BJ8I8E)4?8;RF9BE687J<G;7E4J4? 9EB@G;8CE8F<78A6L
4A7;<FE8C?468@8AG5L47<<A7<7ABGF?BJ7BJA5HG
E4G;8E9HEG;8E FC88787 HC 899BEGFGB CE<I4G<M8 FG4G8 4FF8GF
#BFG6EH6<4??L47<F<:A87G;8CEBGB6B?9BE/8@8ARF4668F
F<BAGB G;8 -*%<A868@58E*;<F <A6?H787 6BA68F
F<BAFGBSCE<I4G<M88?8I8AF8EI<68F86GBEFJ<G;<A4@4K<@H@
B9VI8L84EF U 8KCBF1<A:2 /8@8ARF6B@C4A<8FGB6B@C8G<
G<BA<AG;8Q9E88@4E>8GR4@BI8G;4GCEB@<F87G8AFB9G;BH
F4A7F B9 ?4LB99FT ?H@<  CC P )<A68 47<
<AF<FG87BACB?<6<8FBCCBF875L4@4=BE<GLB97B@8FG<6CB?<G
<64?46GBEFABG?84FG FG4G88@C?BL88F@8@58EFB9G;8@<?
<G4EL ABEG;8EA GE<58F 4A7 G;8 BHG;< @BI8@8AG ;8 J4F
6B@C8??87GB94??546>BA FHCCBEG 9EB@ ;<F 8KG8EA4?FCBA
FBEFA4@8?L)4H7<E45<447<4?FB94<?87GBB998E7B@8FG<6
6BAFG<GH8A6<8F4AL6E87<5?8I<F<BAB9FG4G8?8778I8?BC@8AG
4A7CEBI<F<BAB9J8?94E8CB?<6<8FBFG4?AFG847;8
6BAG<AH87GBEHA4CE874GBELFG4G84?BA:G;8?<A8FB9;<FCE8
7868FFBEP8K68CGG;4GG;8FCB<?FJ8E87<FGE<5HG878I8A@BE8
A4EEBJ?L*;<FCEBI87GB58G;8@4<A64HF89BEG;894<?HE8B9
;<FE8:<@8GB6BAFB?<74G84A7CE8C4E87G;8BHG;<RFFH5F8
DH8AGG4>8BI8EB9@BFGB9$BEG;/8@8AF<A68
)H@@<A:HC G;<F5E<89?<G8E4GHE8E8I<8JB9?B64?6BAW<6G
<A /8@8A G;8E8 4CC84EF 6BAF8AFHF G;4G ABEG;8EA GE<54?
CBJ8EFGEH6GHE8F4A7 G;8 <@C46GB9 HA<V64G<BA B9G;8 GJB
/8@8A< FG4G8F<ACEB7H6874A 8I8E@BE87<I<787 4A7
9E4:@8AG87CB?<GL<AJ;<6;4668FFGBA8JE8FBHE68FFH6;4F
B<?E8I8AH8CEB7H687@H?G<C?8A8J6?4<@FBAG;8FG4G8J;<?8
9HEG;8E 5?HEE<A: ?<A8F B9 466BHAG45<?<GL A 477<G<BA FG4G8
FGEH6GHE8F;47A8I8ECE8BECBFGHA<V64G<BA6BAFB?<74G87
<A G;8 F8AF8 B9 :4<A<A: 4HGBAB@L 9EB@ BG;8E 9BE@F 4A7
FBHE68FB9CB?<G<64?4HG;BE<GL*;8F8<FFH8F4E87<F6HFF87<A
G;8FH5F8DH8AGF86G<BAJ;<6;8K4@<A8FG;87B@8FG<6CB?<G
<64?6?84I4:8FGEH6GHE8<A9HEG;8E78G4<?89BE8;4A7G;8E8
@4<A78EB9G;86HEE8AGF86G<BAGHEAFGBE8:<BA4?4A7:?B54?
946GBEF
Regional factors
*;8 E45 E8:<BA4? FG4G8 FLFG8@ 8@8E:87 49G8E G;8 6B?
?4CF8 B9 G;8 %GGB@4A @C<E8 <A  HA78E CE<@4E<?L
E<G<F;<AWH8A68 *;HF FG4G8HA<GF BA G;8 E45 C8A<AFH?4
@BFG?LE8?4G8546>GBE<G<F;<A7<E86GEH?8CE88K<FG<A:CE<I
<?8:87 E8?4G<BAF;<CF B9 G;8 +! J<G; 68EG4<A 6?4AF FH6; 4F
G;84?)4H7FGHEA87SCEBG86GBE4G8FT<A4F?BJ4A7HAFG847L
CEB68FF <AGB FG4G8 HA<GF AFG847 B9 A4G<BA FG4G8F FG4G8
5H<?7<A: BA G;8 E45 C8A<AFH?4 CEB7H687 SFG4G8 A4G<BAFT
G;4G 6BAG<AH8 GB <A6?H78 I4E<BHF 9BE@F B9 GE47<G<BA4? 4H
G;BE<GLFH6;4FEH?<A:94@<?<8F4A7@HFGFG<??E8?4G8GB 8K
G8EA4?C4GEBAFGB:H4E4AG88478:E88B97B@8FG<6FG45<?<GL
B??BJ<A: -BE?7-4E  G;8 E45 E8:<BA4? FLFG8@ J4F 8F
F8AG<4??LG4>8ABI8E5LG;8+)FG4EG<A:J<G; G;84:E88@8AG
58GJ88A+) &E8F<78AG E4A>?<A 8?4AB (BBF8I8?G4A7 !<A:
5A)4H7<AGB8FG45?<F;4FGE4G8:<6E8?4G<BAF;<C HE
<A:G;884E?LB?7-4EE<G<F;<AWH8A686B??4CF87*;8)B
I<8G+A<BAABJ8@8E:874FG;8F86BA7@4=BE8KG8EA4?CBJ8E
<AG;8E8:<BA4A7FG4EG87546><A:4AH@58EB9SE47<64?TE45
E8:<@8FFH6;4F)BHG;/8@8A49G8E
A G;8 CBFG6B?BA<4? E45 FG4G8 FLFG8@ 8@8E:<A: 49G8E
 GJB FG4G8F @478 899BEGF GB 586B@8 E8:<BA4? ;8:8
@BAF A4@8?L 4@4? 578? $4FF8ERF :LCG <A G;8 F
4A7 F 4A7 )4774@ HFF8<ARF E4D 7HE<A: G;8 F
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 7
BG; 899BEGF 94<?87 CE<@4E<?L 7H8 GB 8KG8EA4? 54?4A6<A: 5L
G;8+)J;<6;HF87<GFBJACBJ8E4A74E8:<BA4?FLFG8@B9
ABAE456?BF84??<8FA4@8?LFE48?*HE>8L4A7G;8);4;RF
E4A58GJ88A  4A7 GB546>HC<GFE8:<BA4?E45
6?<8AGF A4@8?L )4H7< E45<4 4A7 G;8 H?9 )G4G8F 4:4<AFG
SE47<64?T6;4??8A:8EF9G8EG;878@<F8B9G;8)BI<8G+A<BA
<A@BFGE8?8I4AGFG4G8F<AG;8#<77?84FGBG;8EG;4A
)LE<4 4A7 E4D J8E8 4?E847L 6?BF8?L 4?<:A87 J<G; G;8 +)
*;8E45FG4G8F6HEE8AG?L6B@C8G<A:9BE<AWH8A68<A/8@8A
4E84??6?BF8 +) 4??<8F A4@8?L)4H7< E45<4 G;8 +4A7
'4G4E*JBBG;8EE8:<BA4? E45 FG4G8F 4;E4<A4A7%@4A
4E8GBBJ84>GB8K8E6<F8@H6;<AWH8A68BAG;8/8@8A<F<G
H4G<BA<A4??L*HE>8L4A7 E4A4FABAE45 FG4G8F4E8:8
B:E4C;<64??L 9HEG;8E E8@BI87 9EB@ /8@8A 4A7 G;8<E EB?8
J<G;<AG;86BAW<6G<F4?FB@BE8?<@<G87AC4EG<6H?4EG;8E8
<FAB6BA6?HF<I88I<78A68B9E4A<4A7<E86G@<?<G4ELFHCCBEG
B9G;8BHG;<F7H8GBE4ARF?B:<FG<64??<@<G4G<BAF4?G;BH:;
<784G<BA4? FHCCBEG <F 46>ABJ?87:87 4A7 <AI8FG<:4G<BAF
45BHGBA8F@4??4E@F646;86?4<@87GB58?<A>87GBE4A4E8
6HEE8AG?LBA:B<A:+A<G87 $4G<BAF )86HE<GL BHA6<?
CC
ABE78EGB 8KC?4<A G;8 G;E88 E45 FG4G8FR<AG8EI8AG<BAF
<A/8@8ABA8@<:;GVEFGFGE8FFG;4GG;8L4??;8?7?BA:G8E@
GE46>E86BE7FB9<AI8FG<A:<A/8@8A86BAB@<64??L4A7CB?<G
<64??L$4@8?L)4H7<E45<4G;8+4A7'4G4E846;6B@
C8G87 <A G8E@F B9 <AI8FG<A: <A <A9E4FGEH6GHE8 FH6; 4F ;4E
5BEF@<A<A:4A7 E84? 8FG4G8 CEB=86GF AC4EG<6H?4E<G ;4F
588A FH::8FG87 G;4G )4H7< E45<4 J4F CE8 @BFG <A
G8E8FG87 <A 47I4A6<A: 4 FGE4G8:<6 SE<7:8 B9 G;8 BEA 1B9
9E<642T <AI8FG@8AG A4@8?L GB 6BAFGEH6G 4 5E<7:8 ?<A><A:
/8@8ARF6B4FG?<A8J<G;=<5BHG<?H@<CCP
*B946<?<G4G8 G;<FCEB=86G 4668FF GB G;8 8AG<E8 6B4FG4? ?BJ
?4A7F *<;4@4 946<A: G;8 (87 )84 J;<6; 6BAF<FGF B9 G;8
J8FG8EA F;BE8F B9 )4H7< E45<4 4A7 /8@8A J4F E8DH<E87
*;8CEB=86GJBH?76BAA86G)4H7<E45<44A7/8@8ABAG;8
E45&8A<AFH?4J<G;G;<BC<4E<GE84)B@4?<44A7G;8CEB
7H6G<I84:E<6H?GHE4??4A7FB9)H74A*;<FJBH?74??BJ7<E86G
)4H7<4668FFGB8FF8AG<4? E8FBHE68F<AG;8E8:<BA BJ8I8E
G;8 )4H7< 5E<7:8 CEB=86G JBH?7 4G G;8 F4@8 G<@8 78I4?H8
CE88K<FG<A:<AI8FG@8AGFB9 G;8+<A@4E<G<@8GE4AFCBEG
4A7 E8:<BA4? ;4E5BEF <A =<5BHG< 4A7 8?F8J;8E8 <A G;8 E8
:<BA
A GHEA G;8 + J4F @BFG <AG8E8FG87 <A @4<AG4<A<A:
4A78KC4A7<A:<GFF;4E8B9 6BAGEB?B9E8:<BA4? GE478EBHG8F
4A7;4E5BEF*;8E89BE8G;84:E88@8AG58GJ88AG;8+RF
H54<&BEGF-BE?7&-4A7G;8A/8@8A<&E8F<78AG)4?8;
<AGB8KC4A7G;8;4E5BEB978A4A7GB<A<G<4G84E88
0BA8 J4F G;8 @BFG <@CBEG4AG F<A:?8 + CEB=86G J<G;<A
/8@8A?H@<CCPFFBBA4F47<5864@8
CE8F<78AG<A;BJ8I8EG;878A4A7BG;8E+<AI8FG
@8AGF 5864@8 F6EHG<A<M87 9BE S6BEEHCG<BAT *;8 A8J :BI
8EA@8AGS<A<G<4G87 4 QE8I<8JRB94??784?F@478 5L G;8 CE8
I<BHF E8:<@8U *;8E8 J4F ?<GG?8 7BH5G G;4G G;8 A8J 5<7
JBH?7 :B GB 4 )4H7< BE '4G4E< <AG8E8FGT ?H@<  C
)<A6847<RFE8:<@8J4F ?84A<A: GBJ4E7 )4H7< <AG8E
8FGF4A7J4F7B@8FG<64??L546>87HC 5L G;8 4?F?4; C4EGL
?875LG;84?;@4E6?4A4A7BG;8E)4H7<4?<:A87ABEG;8EA
GE<54? <AG8E8FGF G;8 + FG4EG87 ?<A><A: HC J<G; FBHG;8EA
/8@8A<<AG8E8FGFGB6BHAG8E54?4A68G;8A8JCB?<G<64??4A7
F64C8)BBAG;8)BHG;8EA#BI8@8AG4A7FBHG;8EAGE<58FE8
68<I87G46<G+FHCCBEG<A78@4A7F9BEE8:<BA4?4HGBAB@L
BEG;8 E8FGBE4G<BAB9)BHG;/8@8ARFFG4G8;BB7*;<FCB?<6L
F;<9GJ4F6BA7H6G87<ABE78EGBCEBG86GG;8CE8I<BHF+<A
I8FG@8AGFGG;8F4@8G<@8G;8+FG4EG87GB78F<:A4G8
G;84?F?4;C4EGL4F4G8EEBE<FGBE:4A<M4G<BA
<A4??L'4G4E;474?FB;84I<?L<AI8FG87<A /8@8A<CB?<
G<6F4A7E84?8FG4G8HA78E)4?8;RFCEBG86G<BAA477<G<BA<G
;47?<A>87 HC J<G; ABEG;8EA GE<58F 4A7G;8 4?F?4; C4EGL
*;<FE8FH?G87 <A 7<E86G 6B@C8G<G<BAJ<G;)4H7< C4E4??8? 89
9BEGFGB6BAGEB?G;84?F?4;C4EGL4A7ABEG;8EAGE<58F%I8E
4??'4G4ECEBI87G;8J84>8FG?<A>4@BA:G;8G;E886B@C8G
<A:E45CBJ8EF4A7CBFG)4?8;CE8F<78A6L?BFG<GF84E?<8E
<AWH8A68 <A /8@8A A  '4G4E BC8A?L 98?? BHG J<G;
)4H7<4A7 +9BE68F8FC86<4??LG;89BE@8E4A7FB@8 B5
F8EI8EFFH::8FG87 G;4G 4A8J6B4?<G<BA6BAF<FG<A: B9'4G4E
*HE>8L4A7E4AJ4F8@8E:<A:GB54?4A684:4<AFG)4H7<4A7
+9BE68F<A/8@8A/8GG;846GH4?78:E88B9FH6;4??<4A68
@4><A:58LBA7G;8E;8GBE<64??8I8?E8@4<AF<A7BH5GF<A68
G;8 CBG8AG<4? C4EGA8EF @<:;G F;4E8 68EG4<A <AG8E8FGF <A
/8@8A5HGFGEBA:?L7<I8E:8BABG;8E<FFH8F
*;8 @BFG <@CBEG4AG 4A4?LG<64? DH8FG<BA <F ;BJ8I8E
J;8G;8E4ALB9 G;8 6BAG8@CBE4EL E45 FG4G8F 8A=BLF478
:E88B9 4HGBAB@L GB 6BA7H6G4 E8:<BA4? 9BE8<:A CB?<6L <A
78C8A78AG9EB@+)C4GEBA4:8AC4EG<6H?4EG;8H?9)G4G8F
4A7)4H7<E45<4846;;BFGC8E@4A8AG+)@<?<G4EL<AFG4??4
G<BAF*;8BA?LG;8BE8G<64??L 6BA68<I45?864A7<74G8 9BE E8
:<BA4?E45;8:8@BA<F)4H7<E45<4BA4@BHAGB9<GFCBC
H?4G<BA F<M8 4A7 86BAB@<6 F<:A<V64A68 4F 4 @4=BE B<?
CEB7H68EHG)4H7<E45<4<F 4A 8K68CG<BA4??LCBBE 64A7<
74G89BEE8:<BA4?;8:8@BA7H8 GB G;8 45F8A68 B9 FGE4G8:<6
4HGBAB@L*;8J4E<A/8@8AF<A68;4FBA684:4<AHA
78E?<A87G;4GG;8)4H7<@<?<G4EL<F HA45?8GB6BA7H6G<A78
C8A78AGBC8E4G<BAF<AG;845F8A68B9+)@<?<G4EL4A7?B:<F
G<64?FHCCBEGE<G<F;@<?<G4ELGE4<A8EF&4><FG4A<C<?BGF4A7
S)4H7<T:EBHA7GEBBCF ;<E87 9EB@ C?468FBG;8E G;4A)4H7<
E45<4"8J<F*8@C?4E08<;4AC
#BE8BI8E)4H7<E45<4 4?FB?46>F@84A<A:9H?86BAB@<6
4HGBAB@L 9EB@ G;8 J8FG8EA CBJ8EF )<A68 G;8 F G;8
6BHAGELRFB<? E8I8AH8;4FCE<A6<C4??L588A<AI8FG8745EB47
<A G;8 47I4A687 % 86BAB@<8F *;<F GE4AF?4G8F <AGB
)4H7< E8?H6G4A68 GB CHF; 9BE ;<:;8E 78:E88F B9 E45 86B
AB@<64HGBAB@L S*;84?)4H7RF64@8 GBF88-8FG8EA4A7
)4H7< <AG8E8FGF 4F A84E?L <A7<FG<A:H<F;45?8 B<? CE<68 E<F8F
G;4G 74@4:87 G;8 -8FG8EA 86BAB@LJBH?7 74@4:8 )4H7<
<AI8FG@8AGFE87H6878@4A79BEB<?4A7FG<@H?4G8B<?8KC?B
E4G<BA<A ABA%& 6BHAGE<8FT<AA85HF6; C 
*;HF<G <F <A 946G ABG CBFF<5?8 GBVA7 4AL 6E87<5?8 64A7<
74G86BHAGEL9BEE8:<BA4? E45 ;8:8@BA A7887BA?L G;8
ABAE45E8:<BA4?A8<:;5BEFPFE48?*HE>8L4A7 E4AP8A
=BL86BAB@<64A7@<?<G4EL64C45<?<G<8FG;4G4??BJG;8@I4E
<BHF78:E88FB94HGBAB@L 9EB@ G;8 :E84G CBJ8EF GB J;<6;
4GG8AG<BAABJGHEAF
Global factors
*;8 +) CE<@4EL EB?8 4F 8KG8EA4? ;8:8@BA BA G;8 E45
C8A<AFH?4 4A7 <A G;8 ?4E:8E #<77?8 4FG @84AF G;4G G;<F
6BHAGELRFEB?87<998EF9HA74@8AG4??L9EB@G;BF8C8E9BE@87
5LG;8 BG;8EGJB :E84G CBJ8EF;<A4 4A7 (HFF<4%A?LG;8
+)8A:4:87<AG;8?BA:G8E@C8A8GE4G<BAB9G;8 8AG<E8 E8
:<BAF<A688FG45?<F;<A:4C8E@4A8AG@<?<G4ELCE8F8A68
<A A84E?L 4?? E8:<BA4? FG4G8F *;8 +) #<77?8 4FG FGE4G8:L
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 8
J4FVEFG4AABHA687<AG;8<F8A;BJ8EB6GE<A8B978
6?4E<A:G;4GG;86BHAGELJBH?7CEBG86GG;8E8:<BA4?S9E88A4
G<BAFT5L@<?<G4EL@84AF<9A868FF4EL9EB@S<AG8EA4G<BA4?
6B@@HA<F@T*;8+)CBFGHE84FG;8#<77?84FGRF@4<A8K
G8EA4? 54?4A68E J4F E8FG4G87 <A G;8  4EG8E B6GE<A8
4A7G;89BHA74G<BAB9G;8+A<G87)G4G8F8AGE4?B@@4A7
$*%#<AC?4687G;8+)@<?<G4EL9B6HF8I8A@BE8
VE@?LBAG;8#<77?84FG
9G8EG;878@<F8B9G;8)BI<8G+A<BAE8@4<A<A:8KG8EA4?
6;86>F BA +) E8:<BA4? 6BA7H6G J8E8 ?4E:8?L E8@BI87 A
CE8C4E4G<BA9BE G;8 <EFGH?9-4E<AG;8+)@<?<G4EL
8E86G87A8J@<?<G4EL <AFG4??4G<BAF <A )4H7<E45<44A7 G;8
H?9)G4G8F *;8F8 @<?<G4EL54F8F 5864@8 C8E@4A8AG49G8E
G;8@<?<G4EL 78984GB9G;8 E4D<9BE68F4A7G;8<EJ<G;7E4J4?
9EB@ !HJ4<G )<A68 G;8A G;8 +) FH6688787 <A <AFG4??<A:
C8E@4A8AG @<?<G4EL 54F8F <A A84E?L 4?? E45 FG4G8F %A?L
"854ABA<FFG<?? 9E88 B9 4A B9V6<4??L46>ABJ?87:87+)@<?
<G4ELCE8F8A68J;<?8 )LE<4 4A7 /8@8A <AG;8 9BE@8E 64F8
G;8ABEG;84FG8EAB<?V8?7F4A7<AG;8?4GG8E64F8G;8<F?4A7
B9)B6BGE4;4I8<AE868AGL84EF586B@84G?84FGG8@CBE4EL
;BFGF9BEG;8 +) @<?<G4ELA G;8 64F8 B9 ?B64? 6?<8AGF FH6;
+)CB?<6<8F 4E8 54F87 BAG;8SB<?9BEF86HE<GLT9BE@H?44A7
<A6?H788KG8AF<I8+)4E@FF4?8FGBE8:<BA4?C4EGA8EFAC4E
4??8?G;8 E45 4??<8F 9E8DH8AG?L9HA7G;8+)54F8FBA G;8<E
G8EE<GBE<8F4A7 +)@<?<G4EL46G<I<G<8F<AG;8 E8:<BAB?:4A
;4CG8E
-<G;E8:4E7 GB/8@8A+)CB?<6<8FF<A68G;8FG4EGB9G;8
SJ4E BA G8EEBET <A  J8E8 CE<A6<C4??L 4?<:A87 J<G; G;8
)4?8;E8:<@8 J;<6;E868<I87?<@<G87 5HG FG847L FH5F<7<8F
4A7@<?<G4ELFHCC?<8F<A8K6;4A:89BE6BA7H6G<A:BC8E4G<BAF
4:4<AFG ? '4<7449V?<4G87 :EBHCF <A /8@8A 4A7 9BE B9V
6<4??L4668CG<A:+)7EBA8FGE<>8FJ<G;<A/8@8A9EB@+)@<?
<G4EL 54F8F <A =<5BHG< %A68 G;8 CBCH?4E CEBG8FGF 4:4<AFG
)4?8;GBB>B99<A;BJ8I8E+)CB?<6L@4>8EFJ<G;7E8J
9EB@)4?8;<ABE78EGB546>4H?9BBC8E4G<BABHA6<?<A<
G<4G<I8 J;<6; FH::8FG87 ;4A7<A: BI8E G;8 /8@8A< CE8F<
78A6LGB47<*;<FC?4A4?<:A87+)58;4I<BEJ<G;E8:<BA4?
)4H7<4A7+F6;8@8F&8E><AFC
AE868AGL84EF;<A4;4F8@8E:874FG;8CE<A6<C4?6;4?
?8A:8EB9 +);8:8@BAL864HF8 B9<GFFHFG4<A87;<:; 86B
AB@<6:EBJG;E4G8FF<A68G;8FG;86BHAGEL;4F78I8?
BC87<AGBG;8<A7HFGE<4? JBE>F;BC B9 G;8 JBE?7 -;<?8 G;8
+)BC8E4G8G;8?4E:8FG@<?<G4ELA4IL<AG;8JBE?7GB546>HC
4FLFG8@B9+)?87E8:<BA4? @<?<G4EL4??<4A68F;<A4BC8E
4G8FG;8 ?4E:8FG @8E6;4AG F;<CC<A: W88G4A7<FG;8JBE?7RF
?4E:8FGF;<CC<A:@4AH946GHE8E*;HF;<A48AG8EFE8:<BA4?
FLFG8@FCE<@4E<?L5LHG<?<M<A: <GF 86BAB@<6 FGE8A:G; -<G;
G;84AABHA68@8AGB9 G;8 S)<?> (B476BAB@<6 8?GT
5LG;8;<A8F8&E8F<78AG.< <AC<A:FH5F8DH8AG?LE8A4@87
G;8S8?G4A7(B47A<G<4G<I8T(G;86BHAGELB998EF86B
AB@<66B??45BE4G<BAGB78I8?BC<A:4A7%6BHAGE<8F9B
6HF<A: BA <A9E4FGEH6GHE8 6BAFGEH6G<BA <A 8K6;4A:8 9BE
;<A4RF4668FFGBB<?@<A8E4?F4A74:E<6H?GHE4??4A7F;<A4
CHGF8@C;4F<F BA G;8 CE<A6<C?8 B986BAB@<6 6B??45BE4G<BA
9BE@HGH4? 47I4AG4:8 4A7B998EF?BA:G8E@6E87<G946<?<G<8F
9BE78I8?BC<A:6BHAGE<8F*;86BHAGELFGE8FF8FG;8CE<A6<C?8
B9 ABA<AG8E98E8A68 <A 7B@8FG<6 4994<EF B9 ;BFG 6BHAGE<8F
FH::8FG<A: G;4G CB?<G<64? 4A7 @<?<G4EL 4??<4A68 5H<?7<A: <F
ABG4 CE<A6<C4? 6BA68EA B9 ;<A4 &4><FG4A <F 4F<:A<V64AG
8K68CG<BA9EB@G;<FC4GG8EA;BJ8I8E
AG;8#<77?84FG4A78?F8J;8E8;<A4;4F4668CG87G;8
4HG;BE<GL B9 8K<FG<A: :BI8EA@8AGF GE84G<A: G;8@ 4F 5HF<
A8FF C4EGA8EF FH6; 4F <A 5H<?7<A: <A9E4FGEH6GHE8 <A 9E<64
4A7G;8E45JBE?7<A8K6;4A:89BEB<?4A7:4F78?<I8E<8FE8
DH<E879BE;<A4RF<A7HFGE<4?86BAB@L*;<F;4FE8FH?G87<A
G;8E4C<7E<F8B986BAB@<6<AG8E78C8A78A6L58GJ88A;<A4
4A7@4=BEE45B<?8KCBEG<A:6BHAGE<8F)4H7<E45<4<F6HE
E8AG?L G;8 ?4E:8FG B<? FHCC?<8E B9 ;<A4 J;<?8 BG;8E GBC
FBHE68F<A6?H78%@4A4A7E4A;<A4;4FE868AG?L4?FB58
6B@8G;8@4=BE<AI8FGBE<AE4D4A7<FG;8F86BA7@BFGF<:
A<V64AGGE47<A:C4EGA8EB9G;8+;<A4RF#8E6;4AGB?7
<A:AG8EA4G<BA4?CHE6;4F874C8E68AGF;4E8<AG;8&BEG
B9=<5BHG<A477<G<BAG;86BHAGEL;4F@478@4=BE<AI8FG
@8AGF<AG;8BEAB99E<64E8:<BAJ;8E8<G<F6BAFGEH6G<A:
EB47F4A7;4E5BEFA/8@8A;<A44?FB8A:4:87<AG;88K
C?BE4G<BAB9G;8 6BHAGELRFB<?E8F8EI8F589BE8G;8J4E
FGBCC879HEG;8EBC8E4G<BAFE8F;
%I8E4?? ;<A4 ;4F ABG I<F<5?L G4>8A F<78F <A 7B@8FG<6
6BAW<6GF<A G;8 E8:<BAAG;88I8AGB9 FG4G8 6B??4CF8FH6;
4F<A "<5L4 4A7 <A /8@8A F<A68 G;8 6BHAGEL ;4F 6HG
<GF ?BFF8F 4A7 ;4F 8I46H4G87 <GF A4G<BA4?F E4G;8E G;4A GB
=B<A<A @<?<G4EL6BAW<6GGBCEBG86G<GF<AI8FG@8AGFHEGBA
)<:A<V64AG?L<G;4F 588A4E:H87G;4G;<A8F8<A9E4
FGEH6GHE8 <AI8FG@8AGF 4<@ GB 788C8A @HGH4? 78C8A78A6L
BE8K4@C?8;<A4;4F9HEG;8E78I8?BC8786BAB@<6F86GBEF
CE8I<BHF?L ?4E:8?L 454A7BA87 5L % 6BHAGE<8F FH6; 4F
AH6?84E 8A8E:L G ;4F B998E87 ?4E:8F64?8 6BAFGEH6G<BA B9
AH6?84ECBJ8EC?4AGFGB)4H7<E45<4*;<F6BHAGEL<AC4E
G<6H?4EJBH?758E4G;8EHA?<>8?LGBE868<I8FH6;G86;AB?B:L
9EB@ BG;8E FHCC?<8EF 7H8 GB CEB?<98E4G<BA 6BA68EAF"<A 8G
4?
<A4??LG;8@BFGF<:A<V64AGF<A:?8E8:<BA4? <A<G<4G<I8B9
;<A4 <F G;8 8KC4AF<BA B9 J474E &BEG <A &4><FG4ARF
4?H6;<FG4ACEBI<A68L 8KC4A7<A: G;8CBEG 4A7 5H<?7<A:
EB47F4A7 E4<?J4LF 9EB@ J474EGB;<A4RFABEG;J8FG8EA
CEBI<A68FG;8 6BHAGELJ<??:4<A 4A 4?G8EA4G<I8 ?4A7 GE4AF
CBEG4G<BAEBHG858GJ88A;<A44A7G;8#<77?84FGE8:<BA
*;<F 4??BJF 4IB<7<A: F;<CC<A: EBHG8F 46EBFF G;8 &46<V6
%684A 4A7 G;8 #4?4664A )GE4<:;GF G;8E85L :4<A<A: FB@8
4HGBAB@L9EB@+)A4I4?7B@<A4A68%I8E4??;<A4RFFGE4G
8:L B9 86BAB@<6 6B??45BE4G<BA J<G; E45 FG4G8F E4A 4A7
FE48?G;8?4GG8EF8EI8F4F4FBHE689BE@<?<G4EL4A7*6B@
CBA8AGFABG7<E86G?L4I4<?45?8 GB ;<A4 9EB@ G;8+)4<@F
9BEA4G<BA4?86BAB@<6:4<AF 5L 4IB<7<A: G;8 CB?<G<6<M4G<BA
B9GE478
*HEA<A:GB G;8 EB?8 B9(HFF<4<AG;8E8:<BAG;86BHAGEL
;4F E868AG?L E88@8E:87 4F 4 #<77?8 4FG8EA CBJ8E *;<F
<F?4E:8?L 7H8 GB <GF @<?<G4EL <AG8EI8AG<BA <A )LE<4 <A
GBCEBG86GG;8 6BHAGELRF :BI8EA@8AG9EB@ ?BF<A: CBJ8E GB
F?4@<FG <AFHE:8AGF *;8 (HFF<4A <AG8EI8AG<BA B66HEE87 <A
E846G<BA GB 84E?<8E 46G<BAF 5L -8FG8EA FG4G8F A4@8?L G;8
+)+!E4A684A7 FB@8 BG;8E + FG4G8F *;8F8 6BHAGE<8F
;47CE8I<BHF?LF8AGFC86<4?@<?<G4EL9BE68FGB)LE<4AG8EE<GB
E<8FB998E<A:GE4<A<A:4A7:H<74A68GB)LE<4A<AFHE:8AGF4A7
!HE7<F; @<?<G<4F 4A7 FHCC?L<A: G;8@ J<G; J84CBAF )H5
F8DH8AG?L+)9BE68F;4I84?FB B66HC<87@BFGB9)LE<4RFB<?
V8?7F
L6BAGE4FG(HFF<44A7;<A44E85BG;6BA68EA8745BHG
G;8E8:<BA4? CEB?<98E4G<BA B9 F?4@<FGG8EEBE<F@ *;8L 6BA
F<78EG;8CE8F8A68B9(HFF<4A4A7;<A8F8A4G<BA4?F?4@<FG
V:;G8EF<A)LE<44F4CBG8AG<4?G;E84GGBG;8<EBJAF86HE<GL
(HFF<4RF <AG8EI8AG<BA <A )LE<4 HA78E?<A87 G;8 8K<FG8A68 B9
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 9
4?BA:G8E@:8BCB?<G<64?4??<4A68J<G;G;86BHAGELRF?8478E
F;<C G;4G 74G8F 546> GB G;8 F BFG4?  G 6BH?7
4?FB 58 <AG8ECE8G87 4F 4 E8FCBAF8 GB 9BE@8E +) &E8F<78AG
%54@4RF FG4G8@8AG FH::8FG<A: G;4G (HFF<4 J4F @8E8?L 4
SE8:<BA4? CBJ8ET L 6B@C4E<FBA (HFF<4A CB?<6L@4>8EF
;4I8 ABG F;BJA 4AL <AG8E8FG GB 7<E86G?L <AG8EI8A8 <A G;8
6BAW<6G<A/8@8A8E8(HFF<4RFE8FCBAF8;4F588A?<@<G87
GB ;BFG<A: FCB>8FC8BC?8 B9 G;8 9BE@8E CE8 )BI<8G
4?<:A87 )BHG;8EA /8@8A< E8:<@8 <A ;<:;CEBV?8 (HFF<4A
6BA98E8A68 I8AH8F #B;4@87  )<@<?4E GB ;<A4
(HFF<4 ;4F 9B6HF87 ?8FF BA /8@8A 4A7 @BE8 BA 899BEGF GB
GE478J<G;@4=BE E8:<BA4? FG4G8F FH6;4F )4H7< E45<4 4A7
G;8H?96BHAGE<8F
FROM UNIFICATION TO STATE COLLAPSE: THE
REPUBLIC OF YEMEN BETWEEN 1990 AND 2020
*;<FF86G<BAFH@@4E<M8FG;8@4=BE78I8?BC@8AGF7HE<A:
G;8 G;E88 786478F B9 G;8 AB@<A4??L HA<V87 5HG CBFG
9HA6G<BA4??L 6B??4CF87 /8@8A< FG4G8 F 4?E847L FG4G87 <A
G;8CE8I<BHFF86G<BAG;8CE<@4ELCHECBF8B9G;8HA<V64G<BA
B9G;8GJB/8@8AF/(4A7&(/J4FGB946<?<G4G8G;88K
GE46G<BAB9 B<? 4A7:4F<AG;85BE78E?4A7F 58GJ88A G;8GJB
FG4G8F G J4F ;BC87 G;4G G;8 E8FBHE68 54F8 B9 G;8 HA<V87
6BHAGELJBH?74??BJ9HEG;8E FB6<4?4A786BAB@<678I8?BC
@8AG7HE<A:G;8F4A7<AGBG;8FG68AGHEL
*;8@4<ACB?<G<64?78I8?BC@8AGF49G8EHA<V64G<BA64A58
7<I<787<AGB F<K G<@8 C8E<B7F A4@8?L 9EB@ HA<V64G<BA
<AGBG;8BHG5E84>B9G;86<I<?J4EG;8C8E<B7
B96BAFB?<74G<BAB9)4?8;RFEH?849G8EG;8 8K6?HF<BAB9 @BFG
FBHG;8EACB?<G<64?46GBEFJ;<6;E8FGBE87ABEG;8EACB?<G<64?
7B@<A4A68G;8VEFGGE4AF<G<BAC8E<B749G8E
G;8 BHG5E84> B9 @4FF CEBG8FGF 4:4<AFG &E8F<78AG )4?8;
J;<6;E8FH?G87<A;<F9BE687E8F<:A4G<BA9EB@G;8CE8F<78A6L
G;8F86BA7GE4AF<G<BAC8E<B7B9G4?>F45BHG
9HGHE8 CBJ8E F;4E<A: HA78E G;8 47< <AG8E<@ CE8F<78A6L
G;8S$4G<BA4?<4?B:H8BA98E8A68TB9G;8
G;<E7 GE4AF<G<BA C8E<B7 9EB@ G;8 6B??4CF8 B9 47<RF EH?8 <A
GBG;8FG4EGB9G;8)4H7<4<EJ4EBA/8@8ABA#4E6;
  VA4??L G;8 5E84>HC B9 G;8 /8@8A< FG4G8 <AGB 4G
?84FG G;E88 SFG4G8?8GFT A4@8?L BHG;< EH?8 <A @BFG B9 G;8
9BE@8E ABEG; /8@8A EH?8 B9 G;8 )BHG;8EA #BI8@8AG <A
78A4A7BAG;8 FBHG;8EA 6B4FG?<A8F 4A7 G;8 CE8F8A68 B9
47<4?<:A874A7)4H7<VA4A6879BE68F<A#4E<5BA8B9G;8
@4=BE68AG8EFB9B<?8KGE46G<BA<AG;868AG8EB9G;86BHAGEL
4A7<AFB@8BG;8E?8FFCBCH?4G87G8EE<GBE<8FB9G;89BE@8E
FBHG;
F 4?E847L @8AG<BA87 G;8 HA<V64G<BA CEB68FF <A 
J4F<A<G<4??L54F87BAG;8<784 B9 8DH4? CBJ8E F;4E<A: 58
GJ88AABEG;4A7FBHG;)4?8;4FG;8CE8F<78AGB9G;89BE@8E
ABEG;E8G4<A87 G;8 CE8F<78A6L B9G;8HA<V876BHAGELJ;<?8
G;8 9BE@8E FBHG;8EA /)& C4EGL ?8478E ?< )4?8@ 4?8<7;
5864@8 I<68CE8F<78AG *;8 9BE@8E ;847 B9 G;8 FBHG;8EA
)HCE8@8 &8BC?8RF BHA6<? 4A7 78 946GB CE8F<78AG B9 G;8
FBHG; 4<78E 4?GG4F J4F 4CCB<AG87 4F CE<@8 @<A<FG8E
)<:A<V64AG?L 4?8<7; 4A7 4?GG4F J8E8 FHEI<IBEF B9 G;8
946G<BA4?4E@876?4F;8F <A G;8 9BE@8E FBHG; 4A7;47
BA?LF8EI87<A&(/?8478EF;<C CBF<G<BAFF<A68G;8A*;8<E
E8FC86G<I8A8GJBE>FB9<AWH8A68J8E8@H6;J84>8E<A6B@
C4E<FBAGB G;8 BA8F 6BAGEB??875L)4?8; *;8 64C<G4? B9G;8
9BE@8E ABEG; )4A44 5864@8 G;8 64C<G4? B9 G;8 HA<V87
/8@8A 4A7 4?? @<A<FGE<8F J8E8 8DH4??L F;4E87 58GJ88A
ABEG;8EA 4A7 FBHG;8EA E8CE8F8AG4G<I8F <A4??L G;8E8 J4F
4?FBFB@8?<@<G878K6;4A:8B9ABEG;8EA4A7FBHG;8EA4E@L
HA<GFJ;B5864@8FG4G<BA87BABCCBF<G8F<78FB9G;89BE@8E
5BE78E
$8I8EG;8?8FF G;<F AB@<A4? CB?<G<64? C4EGA8EF;<C B9
8DH4?F 7<7 ABG JBE> BHG <A CE46G<64? G8E@F -<G;<A G;8
)4A4454F87 ABEG;8EA 5HE84H6E46L <A9BE@4? CBJ8EFGEH6
GHE8F;84I<?L94IBE87ABEG;8EA46GBEFPAB@4GG8EJ;4G><A7
B99BE@4?BE:4A<M4G<BA4?;<8E4E6;L8K<FG87BAC4C8EA47
7<G<BA5H7:8G4EL4A7VF64?7<F6<C?<A8DH<6>?LFG4EG87GB78
6?<A8*;8@BE86BEEHCGABEG;8EA86BAB@<646GBEFGBB>BI8E
86BAB@<6@4A4:8@8AG4A745B?<F;87G;89BE@8EFBHG;8EA
5H7:8G4EL FLFG8@ G;4G ;47 9B??BJ87 FGE<6G 466BHAG45<?<GL
EH?8F)H5F8DH8AG?LCEB:E8FF<I8FBHG;8EA94@<?L?8:<F?4G<BA
J4F 45B?<F;87 E8<AGEB7H6<A: CB?L:4@L <A G;8 FBHG;
4;?:E8A F86G<BA  +?G<@4G8?LFBHG;8EA /)&
CB?<G<6<4AFJ8E8<AG<@<74G874A7464@C4<:AB9CB?<G<64?4F
F4FF<A4G<BAF58:4A G4E:8G<A: G;8@ #BFGB5F8EI8EF 4:E887
G;4GABEG;8EAGE<54?8?8@8AGF4A7/8@8A<F?4@<FGFE8GHEA
<A: 9EB@ V:;G<A: <A 9:;4A<FG4A <A 6BBC8E4G<BA J<G;
ABEG;8EAF86HE<GL9BE68FJ8E87E<I<A:G;8I<B?8A68<AJ;<6;
@BE8G;4A  C8BC?8 J8E8 ><??87<A  4L CC
P
AG;8VEFGE8?4G<I8?L9E884A7 6B@C8G<G<I8C4E?<4
@8AG4EL8?86G<BAF<AG;8;<FGBELB9/8@8AGBB>C?468*;E88
@4<AC4EG<8F A4@8?L &E8F<78AG)4?8;RF& G;8 /)&4A7
G;84?F?4;BES/8@8A<BA:E8:4G<BA9BE(89BE@TF?4@<FG
C4EGL9BHA787<A4A7?875L57H??4;4?;@4E6BA
G8FG87G;8A4G<BA4?IBG8*;88?86GBE4?FLFG8@J4F54F87BA
F<A:?8@8@58E8?86GBE4?7<FGE<6GF4A7J<AA8EG4>8F4??CE<A
6<C?8FJ;<6;8A6BHE4:876B@C8G<G<BAE4G;8EG;4A6B4?<G<BA
5H<?7<A:?? G;E88 C4EG<8FE8?<87 <A G;8<E64@C4<:A 899BEGF
BA CE88K<FG<A: A8GJBE>F B9 C4GEBA4:8 A C4EG<6H?4E G;8
& B9 &E8F<78AG )4?8; BI8E?4CC87 J<G; FG4G8 <AFG<GHG<BAF
J;<?8 G;8 /)& ;47 ?BFG <GF 9BE@8E 6BAGEB? B9 G;8 FBHG;8EA
5HE84H6E46LF<A684A7J4FG;8E89BE8<A4 J84>8ECB
F<G<BA*;<E7?L4?F?4;4F4ABG;8ECE87B@<A4AG?LABEG;8EA
C4EGL4A7:8A8EBHF?LVA4A6875L)4H7<E45<48@8E:874F
G;8786<F<I8G;<E79BE68
4G8:BE<M<A:G;8CB?<G<6FB94?F?4;;4FCEBI8AGB587<9
V6H?G9BEF6;B?4EF*;8C4EGLE8CE8F8AGF 4 9BE@ B9 F?4@<FG
BHG?<8EG;4G5E<A:FGB:8G;8E@B78E4G8F?4@<FGFFB6<4?6BA
F8EI4G<I8F 4A7 E47<64? )4?4V 8?8@8AGF #<?GBA7J4E7F
CCPE<8WL4?F?4;<F4CB?<G<64?@BI8@8AG
<A J;<6; AB@<A4??L 04L7< 8?8@8AGF G;4G 4E8 <A 946G I8EL
6?BF8GB)HAA<7B6GE<A86B8K<FGJ<G;-4;;45<8KGE8@<FG4A7
@BE8 @B78E4G8 F?4@<FG 6HEE8AGF *;<F 86?86G<6 6B4?<G<BA
64@845BHG9BE4AH@58EB9E84FBAF<EFGG;89BHA7<A:B9
G;8 A8J C4EGL ;8?C87 GB 7898A7 G;8 EB?8 B9 G;8 ABEG;8EA
GE<54?8?8@8AG<AG;8A8J?LHA<V87FG4G8)86BA7SCE4:@4
G<F@T<A G8E@F B94?F?4;RF<78B?B:<64? CEBV?8 @HFG58HA
F4?E847L@8AG<BA87?<$4F<E#B;4@87J4FG;8?8478EB9G;8/)&946G<BAG;4G?BFGG;8CBJ8EFGEH::?8<AG;8&(/
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 10
78EFGBB74FC4EG B9 )4H7< 899BEGF GB :4<A 4I8GBCBF<G<BA<A
/8@8A<CB?<G<6FJ;<?84?FB@4<AG4<A<A:6?BF8E8?4G<BAFJ<G;
)4?8;4A7;<FFHCCBEG8EF4GG;8F4@8G<@8
*;8  6B@C8G<G<I8 C4E?<4@8AG4EL 8?86G<BA E8GHEA87
 F84GF 9BE G;8 &  F84GF 9BE 4?F?4; 4A7  F84GF
9BEG;8 /)&E8FC86G<I8?L*;<F 8?86G<BAE8FH?G94<E?L6?BF8?L
@<EEBE87G;8 7<998E8A68<A CBCH?4G<BAF<M8CE<BEGB HA<V64
G<BAG;89BE@8EABEG;;47<A4CBCH?4G<BAB9@<?
?<BA6<G<M8AFEBH:;?L G;E88 G<@8F ;<:;8E G;4AG;8 AH@58E
B96<G<M8AF<AG;89BE@8EFBHG;ACE8HA<V64G<BAE8
:<BA4?6?84I4:8F 8FF8AG<4??LJ8E8FG<??<AC?4684A74?F?4;
94<?87GB:4<A4ALF84GF<AG;89BE@8EFBHG;*;8/)&@4A
4:87GB :4<A  B9 G;8 6BAG8FG87 FBHG;8EA F84GF J;<?8
G;8E8@4<A78EJ4F@BFG?LG4>8A5L<A78C8A78AG64A7<74G8F
E4G;8EG;4AG;8&J;<6;VA<F;87J<G;BA?L G;E88FBHG;
8EA F84GF A GHEA ABEG;8EA E8:<BAF J<GA8FF87 FB@8G<@8F
E4G;8E6?BF8GJBJ4L6BAG8FGF58GJ88AG;8&4A74?F?4;
4L  C  *;8 <A6BA6?HF<I88?86G<BA E8FH?G GE<:
:8E876BAW<6G58GJ88AG;8G;E88C4EG<8F45BHG;BJGB CEB
6887ABEG;8EA4A7FBHG;8EACB?<G<6<4AF6BH?7ABG4:E88BA
;BJGBE8A8JG;8<E84E?<8ECBJ8EF;4E<A:4:E88@8AG99BEGF
4G 477E8FF<A: G;<F F<GH4G<BA <A 4 A4G<BA4? 7<4?B:H8 6B@
@<GG88CEB7H6874 SB6H@8AG B9&?87:8 4A7 66BE7TG;4G
@BFG?L 9B6HF87 BA 78IB?I<A:CB?<G<64? 4HG;BE<GL GB G;8 E8
:<BAF*;8B6H@8AG J4F F<:A87 5L)4?8;,<68&E8F<78AG
4?<74A7);4L>;4?;@4E7HE<A:468E8@BAL<A@@4A
BE74ABA85EH4EL
BJ8I8E G;8 B6H@8AG94<?87GBFB?I84ALB9G;8 BC8A
DH8FG<BAFJ<G; E8:4E7 GBCBJ8E F;4E<A: AFG847 6<I<? J4E
5EB>8BHGBACE<?  J;8A FBHG;8EA@<?<G4EL HA<GF
FG4G<BA87 <A G;8 ABEG; 64@8 HA78E 4GG46> 9EB@ ABEG;8EA
9BE68F<A)4A444A7;4@4E*;8FH5F8DH8AG5E<89J4EGE<:
:8E87 G;8 4AABHA68@8AG B9 F868FF<BA BA G;8 C4EG B9 G;8
FBHG;8EACB?<G<6<4AFA4@8?L4?<7786?4E87;<@F8?9 GB 58
G;846G<A:CE8F<78AGB94S8@B6E4G<6 (8CH5?<6B9/8@8AT
589BE89H??F64?8 @<?<G4EL78984GB9FBHG;8EA9BE68FBA H?L
 8A787 G;<F 899BEG 4G F868FF<BA )H5F8DH8AG?L FBHG;8EA
CB?<G<64??8478EF J8E8 6B@C8??87GB W88 G;8 6BHAGEL J;<?8
)4?8;454A7BA87;<F84E?<8ECE8G8AF8B9CBJ8EF;4E<A:J<G;
/)& FBHG;8EA8EF 4A7 8A9BE687 7<E86G ABEG;8EA 86BAB@<6
6BAGEB?B9FBHG;8EAB<?4A7:4FE8FBHE68F
AG;<F CEB68FF B9 CB?<G<64? 4A7 86BAB@<6E8FGEH6GHE<A:
;8BA684:4<AE8?<87BAABEG;8EAGE<54?A8GJBE>F@478C4E
4??8? 899BEGF GB E8BE:4A<M8 FBHG;8EA GE<54? A8GJBE>F HA78E
;<FC8EFBA4?C4GEBA4:84A76?BF877BJAFBHG;8EA5E4A6;8F
B9G;86<I<?F8EI<68J<G;4CE8HA<V64G<BAGE46>E86BE7I8E
F<A68  ;8 :BI8EA87 <A 4A HAFG45?8 4??<4A68 J<G; 4?
F?4; 4?? 89986G<I8 CB?<G<64? CBJ8E J4F ABJ 6BAGEB??87 5L
ABEG;8EA46GBEF4A7 8FC86<4??L 5L )4?8; ;<@F8?9 A FH5F8
DH8AGL84EF)4?8;9HEG;8EFGE8A:G;8A87 ;<F;B?7G;8
C4E?<4@8AG4EL 8?86G<BA J4F E87H687 GB 4 6BAG8FG 58GJ88A
&4A74?F?4;78?<I8E<A:F84GF9BEG;89BE@8E4A7
GBG;8?4GG8EJ;<?8G;8/)&5BL6BGG87G;88?86G<BAABG;8E
EBHA7B9 C4E?<4@8AG4ELIBG<A:<AG;8?4FGBA8FB94E
78?<I8E87 F84GF 9BEG;8 & 9BE 4?F?4; 4A7 9BE
4E8BE:4A<M87 /)&*;8E8J8E84?FBGJBCE8F<78AG<4? 8?86
G<BAF<A4A7<AJ;<6;)4?8;J4FE88?86G87J<G;
4A7C8E68AGB9G;8IBG8E8FC86G<I8?L??B9G;88?86
GBE4?6BAG8FGF J8E8BE:4A<M87<A4@4AA8EG;4G;84I<?L 94
IBE87)4?8;4GG;88KC8AF8B9;<F6B@C8G<GBEF
-;8A G;8 SE45 )CE<A:T B66HEE87 <A /8@8A <A 
)4?8; J4F <A<G<4??L 6;4??8A:87 5L 4 CBCH?4E @BI8@8AG B9
FGH78AGF 4A7 6<I<? FB6<8GL 46G<I<FGF 78@4A7<A: 78@B6E4G<6
E89BE@F4A74ABC8A<A: B9G;8FLFG8@GBG;8LBHA:8E:8A
8E4G<BA8K6?H7879EB@ G;88K<FG<A:64EG8?B9CBJ8E;B?78EF
F J4F G;8 64F8 <A BG;8E E45 6BHAGE<8F G;8 @BI8@8AG
J4FDH<6>?LG4>8ABI8E5LF?4@<FG9BE68F8FC86<4??L4?F?4;
#4A84  B??BJ<A: 4A 4FF4FF<A4G<BA 4GG8@CG )4?8;
J4F9BE687GB?84I8/8@8A9BE@87<64? GE84G@8AG <A )4H7<
E45<458GJ88A HA84A7)8CG8@58E<F?BA:FG4A7
<A:,<68&E8F<78AG47< GBB> BI8E 4F 46G<A: CE8F<78AG4A7
J4F FH5F8DH8AG?L 6BAVE@87 4F 6;<89 8K86HG<I8 <A 4 GE4A
F<G<BA4? :BI8EA@8AG G;4G 7<I<787 645<A8G E8CE8F8AG4G<BA
8DH4??L 58GJ88A )4?8;RF & 4A7 4?F?4; %I8E6B@<A:
@H6; E8F<FG4A68 BA G;8 C4EG B9 )4?8; 47< J4F FH5F8
DH8AG?LBA 85EH4EL  8?86G87 4F G;8A8J/8@8A<
CE8F<78AG<A8?86G<BAFJ<G;;<@4FG;8BA?L64A7<74G8#4AL
B5F8EI8EF8KC86G87G;<FA8:BG<4G87CBJ8EGE4AF<G<BAGBCHG
/8@8ARFFG4G8;BB7BA4@BE8FG45?8GE46>*;<FCEBI87GB58
<??HF<BA4EL;BJ8I8E
%AG;8<A<G<4G<I8B9G;8H?9BBC8E4G<BABHA6<?4S$4
G<BA4?<4?B:H8BA98E8A68TB9/8@8A<CB?<G<64?46GBEF<A
6?HF<I8 B9 G;8 BHG;<F 4A7 G;8 )BHG;8EA #BI8@8AG GBB>
C?468 58GJ88A #4E6;  4A7 4AH4EL *;<F 8I8AG
J4FFHCCBF87GB78?<I8E4A8JCB?<G<64?F8GG?8@8AG 9BEG;8
6BHAGELBE8<:A$%F<AC4EG<6H?4E;BC87G;4G8A6BHE4:
<A:G;8C4EG<6<C4G<BAB9A8J<A78C8A78AG46GBEFJBH?794
6<?<G4G8G;86E84G<BAB945EB4754F87CB?<G<64?FLFG8@)H6;
SGE4AF<GB?B:LT 78VA874F S6BAV78A68<A <AG8EA4G<BA4? 8K
C8EGFR 45<?<GL GB 8A:<A88E GE4AF<G<BAF 9EB@ 4HG;BE<G4E<4A
<F@ GB FG45?8 ?<58E4? 78@B6E46LT J4F 6E<G<6<M87 5L ?BA:
FG4A7<A: B5F8EI8EF B9 /8@8A< 4994<EF /474I  4E4C<6B
*;8F8899BEGFE<F>87<AG8E98E<A:J<G;/8@8A<E84?G<8F
5L546><A:J84>46GBEF4:4<AFGFGEBA:8EBA8FA946GSGE4A
F<GB?B:LT8A787HCCE8C4E<A:A8JEBHA7FB96BAW<6GJ;<?8
68?85E4G<A: J;4G 4@BHAG87 GB 4 S946478 B9 <A6?HF<I8A8FF
G;4G ?8AG G;8 6BA98E8A68 ?8:<G<@46LT *E4AF98?7  CC
P +?G<@4G8?L G;8 6BA98E8A68 78?<I8E87 4A 4:E88
@8AG BI8E CBJ8E F;4E<A: G;4G <A6?H787 BA?L G;8 8K<FG<A:
CBJ8E;B?78EF *;8 9BE@8E &E8F<78AG )4?8; J4F 4??BJ87 GB
E8G4<A;<FCBF<G<BA4F?8478EB9G;8&4A7J4F:E4AG87<@
@HA<GL9EB@CEBF86HG<BAPG;<F4?FB6BI8E87;<FCBF<G<BAE8
:4E7<A:;<F?4E:8C8EFBA4?J84?G;:4<A877HE<A:;<FG<@8<A
B9V68
F 9BE G;8 A8J &E8F<78AG 47< @BFG =BHEA4?<FG<6 B5
F8EI8EFF<@C?LFG4G87G;4G ;8 ;47 586B@8 S<AG8EA4G<BA4??L
E86B:A<M87T<8;8J4F8A7BEF875LG;8+)G;8+$FLFG8@
4A7)4H7<E45<4*;8946G G;4G ;<F CE8F<78A6L J4F 4?J4LF
6BAF<78E87GB 58 GE4AF<G<BA4?<A6;4E46G8EP;8J4F BA?L 8K
C86G87GBF8EI8<A BE78E GB 946<?<G4G8 G;8E8BE:4A<M4G<BAB9
/8@8ARFCB?<G<64?FLFG8@49G8E )4?8;RFVA4?78C4EGHE8 9EB@
G;8CE8F<78A6LP4A7G;4GG;885EH4EL8?86G<BA?<@<G87
;<F G8AHE8 GB 4 VK87 GE4AF<G<BA4? G8E@ B9 GJB L84EF 9EB@
GB<F<:ABE87<AFH6;FG4G8@8AGF*B6B@C?<64G8
@4GG8EF9HEG;8E47<F8I8E8?L?46>F<A?8478EF;<CF><??FFH6;
4F BE4GBEL 45<?<GL 6;4E<F@4 4A7 @BFG F<:A<V64AG?L 7B8F
ABG6B@@4A74ALCBJ8E9H?CB?<G<64?946G<BA<A/8@8ABG;8E
G;4AG;8E8@A4AGFB9G;8CBFG?<$4FF<E:EBHC%A8
B5F8EI8EFH::8FG87G;4G;<FCB?<G<64?FHCCBEG8EFSJ8E86BA
FGE4<A875LG;8 <AG8E8FGF B9 BG;8E946G<BAFB9 G;8<E BE:4A<
M4G<BAFTBA?LGB6BA6?H78G;4GS1;82J4F4?FBJ84><AG8E@F
B9GE<54?4A7@<?<G4ELFHCCBEG*=<-627A-,<0-*)+316/7.<0-
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 11
16<-:6)<176)4+755=61<AT*E4AF98?7C8@C;4F<F
47787
47<RF 899BEG 4G E8FGEH6GHE<A: G;8 /8@8A< 4E@L 5L E8
@BI<A:@<?<G4EL?8478EF?BL4?GB;<FCE87868FFBE4A7E8C?46
<A: G;8@ J<G; C8BC?8 78E<I<A: 9EB@ 5L4A CEBI<A68 G;8
9BE@8E E8:<BA4? FGEBA:;B?7 B9 G;8 ?< $4FF<E :EBHC 94<?87
7H8GB HA6?84E ?<A8F B9 6B@@4A7J<G;<A G;8 4E@879BE68F
4A7:8A8E4?E8F<FG4A684:4<AFG;<F4HG;BE<GL%A8 B5F8EI8E
FH@@87 HC G;4G SC?4AF E8@4<A87 C?4AF 4A7 6BH?7 ABG 58
<@C?8@8AG87U?G;BH:; 47<7<7;<F58FG GB<AFG4??;<F
BJA ?BL4?<FGF <A F8AF<G<I8 CBF<G<BAF ;<F 47@<A<FGE4G<BA
6BH?7 ABG 7<F@<FF G;8 @4AL G;BHF4A7F B9 )4A;4A< B9V68E
1<8 G;8 FH5GE<58 B9 G;8 4F;<7 GE<54? 6BA9878E4G<BA GB
J;<6; )4?8; 58?BA:872 J<G; J;B@ )4?8; ;47 FG49987 ;<F
4E@879BE68F9BEG;8CE8I<BHFG;E88786478FT4E4AL
C
%A8B9 G;8CE<A6<C4?BHG6B@8FB9G;8$4G<BA4?<4?B:H8
5864@8G;89B6HFBA E8:<BA4?<M4G<BAA4@8?LG;8 6BHAGELRF
8K<FG<A: 47@<A<FGE4G<I8HA<GFJ8E8FHCCBF87 GB58E8BE
:4A<M87 <AGB F<K SE8:<BAFT 9BHE ABEG;8EA 4A7 GJB FBHG;
8EA *;8 ?4GG8E FH::8FG<BA J4F FGEBA:?L BCCBF87 5L G;8
BHG;<F F<A68 G;8 F6;8@8 JBH?7 ;4I8 ?89G G;8 ABEG;8EA
;<:;?4A7E8:<BA6HG7BJAGB4F<A:?8E8:<BAJ<G;BHG4668FF
GBE8FBHE68FG;8F844A7;4E5BEFA477<G<BA<G4?FBJBH?7
;4I86E84G874A8J8A?4E:87FBHG;8EAS47E4@4HG(8:<BAT
6BI8E<A:@BE8G;4A;4?9B9G;86BHAGELRFG8EE<GBEL4A7@BFG
F<:A<V64AG?L<A6?H7<A:C8E68AGB9G;8B9V6<4??L46>ABJ?
87:87 A4G<BA4? B<? E8F8EI8F (846G<A: GB G;<F E8:<BA4?<F@
C?4A G;8 B9V6<4? FCB>8FC8EFBA 9BE G;8 BHG;< @BI8@8AG
#B;4@87578?)4?4@FG4G87G;4GS1J287<7ABGF<:AG;<F
7B6H@8AG4A7J86BAF<78E<G7B8FABGE8CE8F8AG4FB?HG<BA
ABGGBG;8<FFH8B9G;8)BHG;BEGBG;8HAE8FB?I87A4G<BA4?
<FFH8F4A7 G;8 7<I<F<BA J4F<A 466BE74A68GB G;8 CB?<G<64?
J;<@TDHBG87BA??4@ *,J85F<G885EH4EL
FBHE68AB?BA:8E4I4<?45?8*;8BI8E4??BHG6B@8B9G;8<4
?B:H8BA98E8A68J4FGB8K6?H78G;8BHG;<FG;8)BHG;8EA
#BI8@8AG4A7G;8LBHG;CEBG8FG8EFB99EB@E8CE8F8A
G4G<BA<A:BI8EA@8AG?E<4A<
A GHEA 47< @478 FB@8 899BEGF GB 6BHAG8E54?4A68 ;<F
8K6?HF<I8 E8?<4A68BA G;8 & 4A7 4?F?4; 5L F<:A<A: 4A
BG;8E 784? BA )8CG8@58E   J<G; E8CE8F8AG4G<I8F
B9 G;8 BHG;<F 4A7 G;8 )BHG;8EA #BI8@8AG *;<F F86BA7
784?<A946GABGI8EL7<998E8AG<AFGL?89EB@;<FCE87868FFBE
)4?8;RF 899BEG GB 7BH5?86EBFF BG;8E CB?<G<64? 9BE68F FH:
:8FG874CCB<AG<A:BHG;<4A7)BHG;8EA#BI8@8AG47I<FBEF
GBG;847<&E8F<78A6L9B??BJ875LG;8 F8?86G<BA B9 4 A8J
CE<@8@<A<FG8E8KC86G87GB584SA8HGE4?4A7<@C4EG<4?A4
G<BA4?V:HE8B96B@C8G8A684A7;<:;<AG8:E<GLUJ;BF;4??
8A=BL5EB47CB?<G<64?FHCCBEGT&84684A7$4G<BA4?&4EGA8E
F;<C :E88@8AG  *;8 4:E88@8AG 4?FB <A6?H787 G;8
6B@@<G@8AGGB4CCB<AGBA?LABAC4EGLV:HE8FGB>8L@<A
<FGE<8F J;<6; DH8FG<BA87 G;8 FGEBA: CE8I<BHF CBF<G<BA B9
&4A74?F?4;<A49HGHE8:BI8EA@8AG<A4??LG;84:E88
@8AGCEB@<F87 E8FGBE<A: 9H8? FH5F<7<M4G<BA G;4G ;47 588A
6HG<A H?LJ;<6;;47GE<::8E87 BHG;<?87 @4FFE4?
?<8F4:4<AFGG;847<:BI8EA@8AG
BJ8I8EG;<FF86BA7CBJ8EF;4E<A:9BE@H?4J;<6;G;8
BE8G<64??L JBH?7 ;4I8 CEBI<787 9BE <A6?HF<I8 :BI8EA@8AG
4?FB5EB>87BJA *;8 BHG;<F ABJ47I4A687@<?<G4E<?L BA
G;864C<G4?6<GL B9 )4A44 4A7G;8CBEG 6<GL B9 B78<744A7
GBB>6BAGEB?B9 G;8F8GJB6<G<8F <A )8CG8@58E4A7 %6GB58E
B9GG;8F4@8G<@8G;8BHG;<F4A7)4?8;9BE@874A
<A9BE@4?4??<4A68J;<6; 78?<I8E874@4=BE<GLB9G;8/8@8A<
4E@L <A6?H7<A: G;8 8?<G8 (8CH5?<64A H4E7F FG<?? ?BL4? GB
)4?8;)4?8;RF&C4EGL946G<BA4A7@4ALABEG;8EAGE<54?
?8478EFGBG;8BHG;<?8764@C%A 4AH4ELG;8
BHG;<F4A78?8@8AGFB9G;8/8@8A<@<?<G4EL?BL4?GB)4?8;
F8<M87G;8CE8F<78AG<4?C4?468<A)4A44 4A7CE8FFHE8747<
GB786?4E8;<FE8F<:A4G<BA9EB@G;8CE8F<78A6LLG;<FG<@8
G;8?4GG8ERFAB@<A4?GJBL84EG8E@<AB9V68;47<A4AL64F8
4?E847L8KC<E87
47<FH5F8DH8AG?L8F64C87GB78A J;8E8;8J<G;7E8J
;<F84E?<8E E8F<:A4G<BA *;<FBA?LGE<::8E879HEG;8E@<?<G4EL
47I4A68FB9G;8BHG;<FBA78AE8FH?G<A:<A;84ILV:;G<A:
58GJ88A #4E6; 4A7 H?L B9  +?G<@4G8?L G;8 BHG;<
9BE68F J8E8 CHF;87 546> 9EB@ 78A 49G8EG;8 <AF8EG<BA B9
A8J)4H7<546>87 :EBHA7 GEBBCF47< ?89G /8@8A9BE G;8
)4H7< 64C<G4? (<47 4EE<I<A: BA #4E6;   4A7 ;4F
E8F<787 <A ;<F ;BFG 6BHAGEL 8I8E F<A68 %A G;8 F4@8 74L
G;8)4H7<4<EFGE<>8F4:4<AFGG;86B@5<A87BHG;<4A7)4?8;
9BE68F58:4A
A C4E4??8? G;8 )BHG;8EA #BI8@8AG F<A68 CE<? 
G8E@87G;8)BHG;8EA*E4AF<G<BA4?BHA6<?786?4E874FC<E4
G<BAF9BE9H??F64?8 <A78C8A78A68 B9 G;8FBHG; BE 4?G8EA4
G<I8?L9BE4E8A8:BG<4G<BAB96BA7<G<BAFJ<G;E8:4E7GB G;8
7<FGE<5HG<BAB9/8@8A<FG4G8E8I8AH8<ABE78EGB<@CEBI8G;8
86BAB@<64A7CB?<G<64? CBF<G<BA B9G;8 FBHG;8EA CEBI<A68F
?F;4<5<  %A 868@58E   9BE@8E CE8F<78AG
)4?8;J4F4FF4FF<A4G875L4BHG;<FA<C8EJ;<?8;8GE<87GB
W889EB@ G;8 6<GLB9 )4A44 G;4F 588A FH::8FG87 G;4G ;8
;47BA68 4:4<AGE<87GB7BH5?86EBFFG;8 BHG;<F <AGEL<A:
GBE86BAA86GJ<G;)4H7<E45<4ACB?<G<64?4HG;BE<G<8F8A
F4<7
F4?E847L CE8I<BHF?LFG4G87BHGF<78546><A: B9/8@8A<
CB?<G<64? 4A7 @<?<G4EL 46GBEF <F 4 @4=BE 8KC?4A4GBEL 946GBE
9BE8I8AGFBAG;8:EBHA7AG8E@FB9 E8:<BA4?E45FG4G8F
)4H7<E45<4G;8+'4G4EHAG<?4A7BA4F@4??8E
F64?8:LCG BE74A !HJ4<G 4A7 )H74A 4?? <AG8EI8A87BA
G;8F<78 B9G;847<9BE68F)B@8B9G;8F8 FG4G8F;4I8F8AG
G;8<EBJA GEBBCF 4A7BE @8E68A4E<8F<AGB FBHG; /8@8A GB
C4EG<6<C4G8<AV:;G<A:BAG;8:EBHA7BE;4I8C4<7BG;8EFGB
7BFBAGHEAG;8BHG;<F;4I8<AG8E@<GG8AG?LVE87EB6>8GF
9EB@ABEG;/8@8A<AGB)4H7<E45<4*;8L4E:H8G;4GG;8F8
4GG46>FE8G4?<4G89BEG;8)4H7<5?B6>478B9G;8/8@8A<6B4FG
G;4G G;8L ;B?7 E8FCBAF<5?8 9BE FG4EI<A: G;8 /8@8A< CBCH
?4G<BA)4H7<@87<4;4F46>ABJ?87:87G;8<A6B@<A:EB6>8G
VE8 J;<6; 4?FB CEBI8F G;4G G;8 BHG;<F 64CGHE87 4 ?4E:8
F;4E8B9G;89BE@8E/8@8A<4E@LRF4EF8A4?
)<A68G;8 )4H7< @<?<G4EL ;47 AB CE8I<BHF 8KC8E<8A68<A
V:;G<A: :EBHA7 J4EF <G E8?<87 BA +) @<?<G4EL 4FF<FG4A68
4A7 :H<74A68 A GHEA G;8 BHG;<F J8E8 45?8 GB FHFG4<A
G;8<E E8F<FG4A68 C4EG<4??L 7H8 GB G;8 :8B:E4C;<64? 984GHE8F
B9 /8@8ARF ABEG;8EA ;<:;?4A7F J;<6; B998E FB@8 CEBG86
G<BA4:4<AFG9BE8<:A<AI4F<BAF4A748E<4?5B@54E7@8AGFA
C4EG<6H?4E G;8 J4E 4:4<AFG G;8 BHG;<F <F BA?L ABG<BA4??L
S)4H7<?87T 4A7 6BH?7 ABG 6BAG<AH8 J<G;BHG +) G4E:8G E8
6BAA4<FF4A68 4A7 <A4<E E89H8?<A: B9 )4H7< =8GF $8J /BE>
*<@8F/8G<AFC<G8 B9G;8I4FGG86;AB?B:<64? FHC8E<
BE<GL4A7 ?4E:8F64?8 FC8A7<A:B9 E8FBHE68F BA G;8 C4EG B9
)4H7<E45<4G;8J4EBA/8@8A;4F94<?87GBCEB7H684AL
@<?<G4EL 786<F<BA <A 94IBE B9 47< BE BG;8E CEB)4H7< 946
G<BAF
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 12
)H@@<A:HC G;86HEE8AG@<?<G4ELF<GH4G<BAG;8 BHG;<F
4A7<A4F86BA74ELEB?8G;8)BHG;8EA*E4AF<G<BA4?BHA6<?
;4I8 :4<A87 <AWH8A68 4A7 6BAGEB? BI8E @BFG B9 /8@8ARF
CBCH?4G<BA 68AG8EF -;<?8 )4H7< E45<4 <F CE<A6<C4??L FG<??
<AG8E8FG87<A @4<AG4<A<A: 4 HA<V87 /8@8AHA78E <GF GHG8
?4:8G;8+4E8<AGHEA546><A:FBHG;8EA946G<BAF94IBE<A:
FBHG;8EA 4HGBAB@L BE <A78C8A78A68 *;<F SJ4E J<G;<A 4
J4ET58GJ88AG;8GJBS4??<8FT6BA68EAF4668FFGBA4GHE4?E8
FBHE68F <A G;8 ?8FFCBCH?4G87 FBHG;8EA E8:<BAF B9 /8@8A
FH6;4FB<?F<?I8E4A7:B?7*;HF)4H7<E45<44A7G;8+
@<:;GSGE<4A:H?4G8TG;8<E546><A:B947<J<G;FHCCBEG9BE
I4E<BHFBG;8E/8@8A< 946G<BAF 4?BA: GE<54??<A8FB9?BL4?GL
<AG;8;BC8GB;4I84FGEBA:F4L<A9HGHE8786<F<BA@4><A:
BAFBHG;8EAE8FBHE68F
"4FG5HG ABG ?84FG G;8 +)E4A68 4A7 G;8+! ;4I8 4??
F<:A87 A8J E86BE7 4E@F 784?F J<G; )4H7< E45<4 4A7 G;8
+)4H7<E45<4<FABJG;8JBE?7RF?4E:8FG4E@F<@CBEG8E
4A7 C8E68AG B9 <GF @<?<G4ELFHCC?<8F 78E<I8 9EB@ G;8+)
J;<?8G;8+<FG;8G;<E7?4E:8FG+)4E@F<@CBEG8E)GB6>
;B?@ AG8EA4G<BA4? &8468 (8F84E6;AFG<GHG8  -8M8
@4AAGHEA/8@8A4FG;8CBBE8FGFG4G8<AG;8E45
JBE?7<F C4L<A: G;8 H?G<@4G8 CE<685LCEBI<7<A:G;8 54GG?8
FC468 9BE G;8 E8:<BA4? 6BAW<6G 58GJ88A )4H7< E45<4 4A7
G;8+AFH@@4EL<GE8@4<AF7<9V6H?GGB=H7:8J;8G;8E
S6BAGEB??876;4BFT7H8GB8KG8EA4?<AG8EI8AG<BA<F@BFG47
8DH4G8?L78F6E<5<A:G;8/8@8A<F<GH4G<BA?G8EA4G<I8?LG;8
?4E:8F64?8 6B??4CF8 B9 FG4G8 4A7 6<I<? FB6<8GL <AFG<GHG<BAF
@<:;G F<@C?L CB<AG GB S94<?87 FG4G8;BB7T 4F 4 C8E@4A8AG
BHG6B@8
*;858FG6BA68<I45?8BHG6B@8JBH?7B96BHEF858GHEA<A:
546>GB 4 7<4?B:H854F87 A8:BG<4G87 F8GG?8@8AG BJ8I8E
G;<FJBH?7 <@C?L J<G;7E4J4?B9 8KG8EA4? <AG8EI8AG<BA4F 4
CE86BA7<G<BA9BEC8468<A/8@8A+A9BEGHA4G8?LG;<F<FABG
I8EL?<>8?LGB;4CC8A4AL G<@8 FBBA 9 <GJ8E8GB;4CC8A
<A946GG;8BHG;<FJBH?768EG4<A?L;4I8GBE868<I84?4E:8
F;4E8B9<AWH8A68BAG;8SFG4G8T<A<AI8EG876B@@4F7H8
GBG;8<EFGEBA:CB?<G<64?4A7@<?<G4ELCBF<G<BALABJ4@4
=BE<GLB9G;8ABEG;8EAGE<54?A8GJBE>F4E84?FB4?<:A87J<G;
G;8BHG;<F 9 AB 7<4?B:H8 B66HEF4ABG;8E CBG8AG<4? F68
A4E<B@<:;G58G;8C4EG<4?B66HC4G<BAB986BAB@<64??L<AG8E
8FG<A:E8:<BAF B9 /8@8A5LBHGF<78CBJ8EF4?G;BH:;SFG4
5<?<GLT6BH?7A8I8E58E8FGBE87HA78EFH6;F68A4E<B
CONCLUSION: YEMEN’S COLLAPSED
STATEHOOD RECONSIDERED
*;<F F86G<BA E8GHEAF GB G;8 6BAW<6G @4GE<K CHG 9BEJ4E7
45BI84A74F>FJ;LG;86BAW<6G<A/8@8ACE8I4<?F4F4;HEG
<A: FG4?8@4G8 4A7 ;BJ :?B54? E8:<BA4? 4A7 ?B64? 46GBEF
<AG8E46G <A G;8 78FGEH6G<BA B9 /8@8A *B 58:<A J<G; G;8
:?B54? 46GBEF G;8L 4E8 94E 4J4L 9EB@ G;8 6E<F<F MBA8 4A7
988?ABGG;E84G875LG;8F<GH4G<BA<A4AL8K<FG8AG<4?@4AA8E
*;8CE8I<BHFGJB+)47@<A<FGE4G<BAFB9%54@44A7*EH@C
A8I8E 8KCE8FF87 4AL @4=BE 6BA68EA BI8E G;8 F<GH4G<BA <A
/8@8A EB@ G;8<E CB<AGF B9 I<8J /8@8A 6BH?7 58 6BA
GEB??87<A7<E86G?L5L784?<A:J<G;G;8@BE8<@CBEG4AG E45
6?<8AGF CE<A6<C4??L )4H7< E45<4 4A7 G;8 + +A78E G;8
%54@4 4A7 *EH@C 47@<A<FGE4G<BAF 7EBA8 J4E94E8 <A
/8@8AC84><A:GJ<68<A4A7?4E:8?LE8C?468789
9BEGFGB5H<?7CB?<G<64?4??<4A68FJ<G;/8@8A<46GBEF*;88F
64?4G<A:7EBA8 4GG46>F 4?FB HA78E?<A87G;8 6B??4CF8 B9 4AL
+)CE8G8AF8B946>ABJ?87:<A:AB@<A4?:BI8EA@8AG4HG;BE
<GL<A /8@8AF 94E 4F /8@8ARFCBG8AG<4?F<:A<V64A684F 4
FBHE68 B9 A4GHE4? E8FBHE68F <F 6BA68EA87 G;8 6HEE8AG J4E
6?BF877BJAA84E?L4??6B@@8E6<4?46G<I<G<8FB9G;<E76BHA
GE<8FJ;<6;<F4A4668CG45?8BHG6B@89EB@G;8+)C8EFC86
G<I8
AGHEA;<A4 4A7 (HFF<4 4E8 4?FBHAJ<??<A:GB7<E86G?L
8A:4:8J<G; G;86BAW<6G<A/8@8A)<@<?4EGBG;8+)5BG;
6BHAGE<8F 4E8 CE<@4E<?L <AG8E8FG87 <A 86BAB@<6 BC8A<A:F
J<G; G;8 86BAB@<64??L 4A7 CB?<G<64??L @BE8 F<:A<V64AG E8
:<BA4? FG4G8F )<A68 )4H7< E45<4RF @<?<G4EL 94<?HE8F <A
/8@8A ;4I8 ;<:;?<:;G87 G;8 ><A:7B@RF <A45<?<GL GB 46G 4F
4E8:<BA4?;8:8@BAG;8F8?8FFBAF@<:;G586BAF<78E87E8
4FFHE<A:9BE;<A8F84A7(HFF<4AB5F8EI8EFBG;6BHAGE<8F
J<F;GB@4<AG4<A8K<FG<A:86BAB@<6 4A7 CB?<G<64? E8?4G<BAF
J<G;G;8E45FG4G8F4A7 E4AF?BA:4F)4H7<E45<44A7
G;8+4E8B66HC<87J<G;G;8F<GH4G<BA<A/8@8AG;8L4E8
HA?<>8?LGB6BA9EBAGE4A9G8E4??E4AE8@4<AF4A<@CBE
G4AGC4EGA8EB9(HFF<44A7 ;<A4 <A G8E@F B96;86><A:G;8
+)?876B4?<G<BAB9E45FG4G8F
F94E 4F E8:<BA4? E45 CBJ8EF4E8 6BA68EA87 G;8L 4E8
G;8@4<A ?BF8EF B9G;8 FG4?8@4G8 <A /8@8A*;8 899BEGFB9
G;8 6HEE8AG )4H7< ?8478EF;<C GB 46DH<E8 E8:<BA4? CE8FG<:8
5L546><A:47<RF/8@8A<E8:<@8<A8K<?8;4I8BA?L78?<I
8E87;H@<?<4G<BA*;8+;4F94E87E8?4G<I8?L58GG8EF<A68
<GC<6>87 4 @BE8I<45?8/8@8A<CEBKLG;8)BHG;8EA#BI8
@8AG 4A7 G;8E89BE8 CHE6;4F87 @BE8 <AWH8A68 BA G;8
:EBHA7 E8;BAL  /8G G;8 9HA74@8AG4? CEB5?8@ <A
G;8E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A)4H7<E45<4 4A7G;8+<F G;4G
5BG; F<78F 984E G;4G G;8 BG;8E F<78 @<:;G :4<A G;8 HCC8E
;4A7<A/8@8A*;8E89BE8G;8L6BAG<AH8GB;HEG846;BG;8E
5LFHCCBEG<A:BCCBF<G8/8@8A<946G<BAF
A 946G G;8 BHG;< @BI8@8AGRF J8??84EA87 E8CHG4G<BA
4F4 9BE@<745?8@<?<G4ELBCCBA8AG@84AFG;4G 8I8A4GEH?L
HA<V879EBAGB9)4H7<F 4A7 + JBH?7 58HA?<>8?LGBCEB
7H684AL 786<F<I8 BHG6B@8 B9 G;8 6HEE8AG J4E%AG;8 BA8
;4A7)4H7<E45<4RF?8478EF7BABGJ4AGGB58F88AGBJ4?>
4J4L9EB@G;864G4FGEBC;8<A/8@8A4F?BA:4FG;8BHG;<RF
EB6>8GFFH66887<AFGE<><A:)4H7<G4E:8GF%AG;8BG;8E;4A7
G;8+6BH?768EG4<A?L?<I8J<G;4A <A786<F<I8BHG6B@8B9
G;86HEE8AG6BAW<6GA4@8?LE87<I<7<A:/8@8ABA68@BE8
<AGB 4 ABEG;8EA 4A7 FBHG;8EA FG4G8P4F ?BA: 4F G;8 ?4GG8E
J<G;<GF86BAB@<6E8FBHE68FJBH?758C4EGB9G;8+RFMBA8
B9<AWH8A68*;<FBHG6B@8<F<AGHEAHA4668CG45?89EB@G;8
)4H7<CB<AGB9I<8J<GJBH?7;4A7BI8E@BFGB9G;886BAB@
<64??L<AG8E8FG<A:C4EGFB9/8@8AGBG;8@4<AE8:<BA4?6B@
C8G<GBEJ;<?8 FG<?? ?84I<A: G;8 78FG45<?<M87ABEG; 9BE )4H7<
CB?<6L@4>8EFGB784?J<G;<A4ABC8A8A787@4AA8E
*;<F?84I8FVA4??LG;8?B64?/8@8A<46GBEF*B58:<AJ<G;
/8@8A< FG4G8;BB7 ;4F 4?J4LF E8G4<A87 984GHE8F B9 GE47<
G<BA4? EH?8 54F87 BA CE88K<FG<A: FGEH6GHE8F B9 4HG;BE<GL
78E<I<A: 9EB@ 6?4A GE<58 94@<?L F86G E8:<BA 4A7 BG;8E
946GBEF-;8A?89G4?BA8G;8?B64?/8@8A<46GBEFJ8E8ABE
@4??L45?8GB89986G<I8?LFGBCG;8HA6BAGEB??878F64?4G<BAB9
7B@8FG<66BAW<6GBJ8I8EHA78E 6BA7<G<BAFB9:?B54?<M4
G<BA 4A7 E8:<BA4?<M4G<BA G;8 ?BA:FG4A7<A: 7LF9HA6G<BA B9
G;8?4E:8EE45FG4G8FLFG8@6B@5<A87J<G;9BE8<:AFG4G8FR
<AG8EI8AG<BA <A E8:<BA4? 4A7 ?B64? 4994<EF @H?G<C?<87 G;8
6;4??8A:8F 9BE /8@8A< 46GBEF J;B ;4I8 588A <A6E84F<A:?L
G8@CG87 GB 4CC84? GB BHGF<78 9BE68F 9BE ?B64? 546>HC A
G;<F6BAG8KG7B@8FG<646GBEF6?4<@GBE8CE8F8AGSG;8FG4G8T
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 13
5864HF8G;8L;BC8 GB FGE8A:G;8A G;8<E 54E:4<A<A: CBF<G<BA
<A E8?4G<BA GB 8KG8EA4? <AG8E8FGF 47< FG<?? 6?4<@F GB E8C
E8F8AGG;8FG4G84A7 FB 7B G;8 BHG;<F 4A7G;8)BHG;8EA
#BI8@8AG/8G4GG8@CG<A:GBF4I8G;8FG4G8<AC?468FJ;8E8
<G 7B8F ABG 8K<FG @84AF G;4G 4 C;4AGB@ <F 58<A: E8F6H87
 OG8EFBA>8!4EG4F
46><A47<4CC84E87GB584A<784?64A7<74G89BE
8KG8EA4?FHCCBEG9EB@ G;8 +) )4H7<E45<4 G;8 + 4A7
G;8+$FLFG8@4F8KCE8FF87<AG;8+$)86HE<GLBHA6<?(8F
B?HG<BAB9CE<? -<G;BHGCE8I<BHF946GVA7
<A: G;8 +$ E8FB?HG<BA 6?4<@87 G;4G 47< 8A=BL87 S?8:<G
<@46LT (HFF<4 ABG45?L 45FG4<A87 9EB@ G;<F C4EG<6H?4E +$
IBG8-;<?8 47<RFCE87868FFBE )4?8; ;474?J4LFE8G4<A87
4 ;45<G B9 F84E6;<A: 9BE A8J CB?<G<64? 784?F J<G; 8KG8EA4?
FCBAFBEF4A7J4FCE8C4E87GB7BH5?86EBFF;<FC4GEBAF<A
6?H7<A:G;8+);<FFH668FFBEJ4F8KC86G87GB 58@BE8E8
?<45?8<A9B??BJ<A:8KG8EA4?47I<68BJ8I8EG;8 8I8AGFB9
FH5F8DH8AGL84EF 78@BAFGE4G87 G;4G 47< J4F <A AB CBF<
G<BAGB78?<I8E4FH9V6<8AGAH@58EB9/8@8A<946G<BAFGB;<F
8KG8EA4?FCBAFBEF
*;HF /8@8ARF 7B@8FG<6 46GBEF 68EG4<A?L 64AABG 8KC86G
F4?I4G<BA9EB@4AL<A7<I<7H4??8478EF;<CV:HE8*;8<E58FG
;BC8 E8@4<AF 4:E88<A: BA CBJ8E F;4E<A: J<G;<A FB@8 <A
6?HF<I8A4G<BA4?5B7L4<?<A:GB7BFB@84AFG;4GG;8LJ<??
6BAG<AH8GB 9468 8A7?8FFEBHA7FB9S8KG8EA4?54?4A6<A:T <A
J;<6;/8@8A<946G<BAF4E8E8FHCC?<879BE4ABG;8EEBHA7 B9
V:;G<A:846;EBHA7J84>8A<A:4??7B@8FG<646GBEF<AG;8<E
54E:4<A<A:CBF<G<BAI<FNI<F8KG8EA4?9BE68FEH6<4??L7B
@8FG<646GBEF@HFG46>ABJ?87:8G;4GG;88K<FG<A:CBJ8EE8
?4G<BAF <A6?HF<I8 B9 GE<54? FGEH6GHE8F @4>8 HC G;8 CB?<G<
64?E84?<GLB9 G;8 6BHAGEL/8@8ARF FG4G894<?HE8;4F 9BE687
6<G<M8AFGB94??546>BA 8AGE8A6;87 GE47<G<BA4? <AFG<GHG<BAF
4A7<78AG<G<8F <A BE78E GBBE:4A<M8G;8<E FHEI<I4? *;8E8<F
AB6BAGE47<6G<BA<AG;8FG4G8@8AGG;4G@BFG/8@8A<C8BC?8
7BABG;B?74GE<54?<78AG<GL46?4<@@BFG?L4668CG87<AG;8
46478@<6?<G8E4GHE84A7G;8C4E4??8? B5F8EI4G<BA G;4GGE<5
4?<F@;4F E868AG?LE8:4<A87<A F<:A<V64A687H8GBG;8 BA
:B<A:FG4G86B??4CF8
*;8FGEH6GHE4?786?<A8B9G;86BHAGEL<AG8E@FB9<GF7E4
@4G<6;84?G;6E<F<FG;8;B?8E4BHG5E84><F7H8GBG;8
78FGEH6G<BAB9 G;8 F8J4:8FLFG8@<A)4H7<4<EFGE<>8F 4A7
C4E4??8?86B?B:<64?6B??4CF8J4G8E F;BEG4:8FFH::8FGFG;4G
4AL 9HGHE8 CB?<GL JBH?7 E8DH<E8 4 78:E88 B9 7B@8FG<6 FG4
5<?<GLGBHG<?<M8E8@4<A<A:?B64?E8FBHE68F9BE78I8?BC@8AG
A G;<F 6BAG8KG E87<I<7<A: G;8 6BHAGEL 4A7 E8GHEA<A: GB
4 CE8 GJB FG4G8F F<GH4G<BA <F I8EL ?<>8?L ABG 4 I<45?8
BCG<BA5864HF8 <G JBH?76E84G8J<AA8EF4A7?BF8EF?B64??L
E8:<BA4??L 4A7 :?B54??L<A G8E@F B9 4668FF GB A4GHE4? E8
FBHE68F4A7 CB?<G<64? <AWH8A68G JBH?7 <FFH8 <A G;8 A8KG
EBHA7B96BAW<6G4A74?FBB998A74:4<AFGG;8?BA:FG4A7<A:
E8:<BA4?4A7:?B54?ABE@GB4IB<7E87E4J<A:FG4G8 5BHA7
4E<8F4M4?;4CG8E
9<:ABE874AL9HEG;8EG;8 ;H@4A<G4E<4A 64G4FGEBC;8<A
/8@8AJ<??68EG4<A?L6BAG<AH8GB8F64?4G8HEG;8EE8:<BA4?
4A7:?B54?4668?8E4G<BA7H8GB94@<A8E89H:88@BI8@8AGF
4A7C4A78@<6F@HFG588KC86G87+AG<?ABJG;8 HA78EE8
CBEG<A:B9G;8;H@4A<G4E<4A6BFGFB9)4H7<4A7+J4E94E8
<A/8@8A<F?4E:8?L7H8GBG;87<F<AG8E8FGB9G;8:E84GCBJ
8EFGB 4FFH@84AL?847<A:EB?8 <AG;86E<F<FA946G ;<A4
(HFF<44A7 G;8+)6HEE8AG?L6B@C8G8 <ABG;8EI8AH8F G;4G
4E8@BE86E<G<64?9BEG;8<EE8FC86G<I89HGHE8 CEBFC86GFHE
G;8EEBHA7FB9CB?<G<6<M87GE4786BAW<6G58GJ88A;<A44A7
G;8 +) <A C4EG<6H?4E 6BH?7 B9 6BHEF8 6;4A:8 G;8 6HEE8AG
C4GG8EA B9 E8:<BA4? <AG8E46G<BA <A G;8 @87<H@ G8E@ *;<F
JBH?768EG4<A?L 49986G;<A4RF:EBJ<A: EB?8<AG;8E8:<BA4?
B<? GE478 I<FNI<F )4H7< E45<4 4A7 BG;8E E45 CEB7H68E
FG4G8F $B @4GG8E J;4G ;4CC8AF 8?F8J;8E8 <A G;8 E8:<BA
;BJ8I8EG;86E<F<F<A/8@8A<FABG:B<A:GB:B4J4L*BFH@
HC /8@8ARF CE87<64@8AG G;8 8KG8EA4? 46GBEF ;4I8 BI8E
E846;87 ;4I8 GE<87 C<6><A: J<AA8EF <A CBBE?L HA78EFGBB7
7B@8FG<66BAW<6GF4A7;4I878FGEBL87@H6;B9 G;8 6BHA
GELPE4G;8E G;4A CHGG<A: 9BEJ4E7 4A 4:8A74 54F87 BA G;8
CE<A6<C?8B9C8468G;EBH:;78I8?BC@8AG
Acknowledgments
A84E?L I8EF<BAB9G;<F C4C8EJ4FCE8F8AG874G G;8F8F
F<BA BA S&H5?<6 &B?<6L 4A7 8I8?BC@8AG <A E4:<?8 )<GH
4G<BAFT B9 G;8 !BE84 FFB6<4G<BA B9 AG8EA4G<BA4? 8I8?
BC@8AG 4A7 BBC8E4G<BA )8BH? 868@58E   *;8
4HG;BE <F :E4G89H? GB H6>=H !JBA 4A7 G;E88 4ABAL@BHF
E8I<8J8EF9BE;8?C9H?6B@@8AGFBACE8I<BHF7E49GF
)H5@<GG87868@58E!)*668CG8785EH4EL
!)*
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
(CCBY-ND-4.0). View this license’s legal deed at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0 and legal code at
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/legalcode for more information.
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 14
(($)
68@B:?H(B5<AFBA &0A)<176;
)14#0-:1/16;7. 7?-: :7;8-:1<A)6, 7>-:<A
&EBV?8BB>F
?E<4A<!)86H?4E<F@)86HE<GL4A7G;8
-84>)G4G8878@B6E4G<M<A:G;8/8@8A<
+CE<F<A:1BA?<A884E?LI<8J26<-:>-6<176;
6<-:6)<176)47=:6)47. 7;<+74761)4"<=,1-;;GGCF7B
<BE:K
?F;4<5<)&0)< -784-")A#0-
"7=<0-:6-:;7=/0<<0-7=<01;<7-.-6,<0-"7=<0
7<<7!-<=:6),1<7 7?-:)BHG;8EA*E4AF<G<BA4?
BHA6<?%9V6<4?-85F<G8;GGC8AFG6478A6B@A8JF

F)4EHE<#)BE>;45<(&8GEB?8H@
4F<AFB9/8@8A-7@ :7;GGCFJJJ:8B8K
CEB6B@4EG<6?8FC8GEB?8H@54F<AFB9L8@8A
8AF4<7868@58E*;858GE4L4?F4A7
<AGE<:H858;<A7?<57H??4;)4?8;RF7BJA94??#!#
&7:4,;GGCFJJJGEGJBE?76B@@4:4M<A8G;858GE4
L4?F4A7<AGE<:H858;<A74?<457H??4;F4?8;F7BJA9
4??
?H@<-;<:7A16/(-5-6&0)<0)7;16
:)*1)#-44;$;)*7=<<0-&7:4,+A<I8EF<GLB9
4?<9BEA<4&E8FF;GGCF7B<BE:64?<9BEA<4

BAA89BL")8CG8@58E*;E88IB?H@8FBA
/8@8A4GJ4E5LF4?H@<<AAL<??4A78?8A
"46>A8E:)*1)6=5)61<1-;;GGC=BHEA4?FBC8A87<G
<BABE:6L
E4A7G##:1*-;)6, 741<1+;16(-5-6
1;<7:A7.<0-7=<0176D1+<%K9BE7+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF
;GGCF7B<BE:BFB
E8;BAL"$BI8@58E#0-+=::-6<;1<=)<17616
(-5-6)=;-;)6,+76;-9=-6+-;$BEJ8:<4A
&84685H<?7<A:(8FBHE688AGE8;GGCFJJJV?8F8G;
M6;<FA959477655
C79
E8;BAL"-4E<A/8@8A$B8A7<AF<:;G4F
G;8FG4G87<F<AG8:E4G8F;1)6..)1:;P
;GGCF7B<BE:
HEGBA;<A8F8BAW<6G#4A4:8@8AG<A
"<5L4)LE<44A7/8@8A49G8EG;8E45+CE<F<A:F
;1)67=:6)47.1,,4-);<-:6)6,;4)51+"<=,1-;
P;GGCF7B<BE:

B?:4A  -<:7//:-;;176&0-614
)=;-;&):4@5E<7:8+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF;GGCF7B<B
E:65B
4;?:E8A)#4E6;(8I<F<G<A:G;8FFH8B9
-B@8ARF(<:;GF<A)BHG;8EA/8@8A)G4GHGBEL"4J
);4E<44A7HFGB@F:)*1)6=5)61<1-;;GGCF=BHE
A4?FBC8A87<G<BABE:6L
4L)-!-/176)41;5)6,!-*-4417616(-5-6
#:7=*4-,)<176)4$61764@5E<7:8+A<I8EF<GL
&E8FF;GGCF7B<BE:65B
BFG4? #*;88I8?BC@8AG4?-8?94E8)G4G8
4A7)B6<4?&B?<6L);<9G<A:9EB@4F<6GB+A<I8EF4?
)B6<4?&EBG86G<BA7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-;
P
BFG4? #)LE<4RF?B54?-4E4A78LBA7
-<??G;84?4A68B9&BJ8E<AG;8#<77?84FG58
(8FGBE87"<=,1) 741<1+)!75)61)6 741<1+)4"+1-6+-
!->1-?'%P
E8F6;&1;<7:A7.7,-:6(-5-6
4@5E<7:8+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF
?MM4M<#1-6<?1+34=6/,-::)*1;+0-6
!-8=*413-5-6"7B178741<1;+0-:=6,4)/-6,-:
,5161;<:)<176BEFGE7@4AA,8E?4:
?<8)$BI8@58E)G8C;8A-4L
(8:<BA4?<F@4A7(858??<BA<A/8@8A*EBH5?87
$4G<BA4?+A<BA:)*1)6=5)61<1-;;GGC=BHEA4?FB
C8A87<G<BABE:6L
A7<A:+)B@C?<6<GL<A/8@8A#4E6;
-?(7:3#15-;7<GBE<4?
4M4?*#"<)<--)<0#0- 741<1+;)6,
-7/:)80A7.769=-;<++=8)<176)6,66-@)<176
&E<A68GBA+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF
E8F;,<G4?#4E<G<@8&<A6;&B<AG
;<A4G;8454?#4A7854A7G;8#<77?84FG;1)6
7=:6)47.1,,4-);<-:6)6,;4)51+"<=,1-;
P;GGCF7B<BE:

8AA<#4L!-,"-)#0-1,,4-);<C;
$6<)88-,14);!-/176;4EG8A8E:L6B@;GGCFJJ
J;4EG8A8E:L6B@8K6?HF<I8FE87F84@<77?884FGFH
AG4CC87B<?:4FE8:<BA
<AA85HF6;(#0-6<-:6)<176)4 741<1+;7.<0-
1,,4-);<A787#4A6;8FG8E+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 15
OG8EFBA>8%!4EG4F#*;8)G4G84F
+E54A#LG;BI8EA4A68J<G;BHGBI8EA@8AG<AG;8
?B54?)BHG;A()6;H8GG&#()G<E>7F#0-
76+-8<7.<0-"<)<-166<-:6)<176)4!-4)<176;CC
P7<A5HE:;+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF;GGCF7B<BE
:87<A5HE:;
"8J<F#*8@C?4E!+!&8EFBAA8?
FHCCBEG<A:G;8)4H7<E@87BE68FP(<F>
!ABJ?87:84A766BHAG45<?<GL513-4-?1;:-;-):+0+75
;GGCFJJJ@<>8?8J<FE8F84E6;6B@()VA4?C79
"<A48$8:4;<A4RF8?G
(B47A<G<4G<I8AH6?84E8KCBEG@C?<64G<BAF9BE
8A8E:L6BBC8E4G<BA6-:/A 741+A
#46E<F (#0- 741<1+;)6,"-+=:1<A7.<0-
=4.6/475-:1+)60-/-576A)6,<0-;0)816/7.)
:-/176(BHG?87:8;GGCF7B<BE:

#4A84/8@8ARFE45)CE<A:%HGF@4EG<A:
G;8HAA<A:)G4G8A")47<><7!7=<4-,/-
)6,*7737.<0-:)*"8:16/!-<016316/
-57+:)<1B)<176CCP(BHG?87:8
#<?GBA7J4E7F/8@8AP*;8#BF?8@
EBG;8E;BB74A7G;8G<8FB9GE<58A<5<7#0-=;415
:7<0-:077,CCP(BHG?87:8;GGCF7B<BE
:
#B;4@87$85EH4EL)G45<?<GL<A
/8@8A<F4AAG8:E4?&4EGB9?B54?)86HE<GL%)4,)1
1;+=;;1764=*;GGCI4?74<6?H56B@4;<:;?<:;GFFG
45<?<GL<AL8@8A<F4A<AG8:E4?C4EGB9:?B54?
&84684A7$4G<BA4?&4EGA8EF;<C:E88@8AG
)8CG8@58E&8468@4>8EHABE:;GGCFC8468@4>
8EHABE:F<G8FC8468@4>8EHABE:V?8F/33&
8468$4G<BA4?&4EGA8EF;<C:E88@8AG38AC79
&8E><AF#/8@8A8GJ88A(8IB?HG<BA
4A7(8:E8FF<BA"<=,1-;1676D1+<#-::7:1;5
P;GGCF7B<BE:K

(8?<89J85(-5-6!-.-:-6+-)8?1<014)6,
);1-4,;;GGCFE8?<89J85<AG@4CL8@8AL8@8AE
898E8A68@4CB<?4A7:4FV8?7F
)4?@BA<"B<7B?G-8??F#!-/15-
)6, -:180-:A167:<0-:6(-5-6#0-=<01
0-675-676 :-8):-,.7:<0--.-6;-6<-441/-6+-
/-6+A($$4G<BA4?898AF8(8F84E6;AFG<GHG8
)GB6>;B?@AG8EA4G<BA4?&8468(8F84E6;AFG<GHG8
#:-6,;166<-:6)<176)4:5;#:)6;.-:;
1)<CE<46G);88G2
*E4AF98?7#&B?<G<64?54E:4<A<A:4A7I<B?8AG
6BAW<6G);<9G<A:8?<G84??<4A68F4FG;8786<F<I8946GBE
<A/8@8ARFGE4AF9BE@4G<BA-,1<-::)6-)6 741<1+;
P;GGCF7B<BE:

+A<G87$4G<BAF)86HE<GLBHA6<?-<<-:,)<-,
)6=):A.:75<0- )6-47.@8-:<;76(-5-6
),,:-;;-,<7<0- :-;1,-6<7.<0-"-+=:1<A7=6+14"
;GGCFE8?<89J85<AGF<G8FE8?<89J85<AGV?8
FE8FBHE68F)333C79
,4E<F6B&H@C<A:/8@8AEL<FGBELB9
/8@8ARF-4G8EE<F<F=5)6+747/AP
-8M8@4A&E@FGE4AF98EFGBG;8
#<77?84FG4A7$BEG;9E<644A7G;8@<?<G4EL
<AG8EI8AG<BA<A/8@8AA" !(-):*773
:5)5-6<;1;):5)5-6<)6,6<-:6)<176)4"-+=:1<A
CCP%K9BE7+A<I8EF<GL&E8FF
/474I)&4E4C<6B)*;8E84>7BJAB9
G;8A<G<4G<I81,,4-);<!-;-):+0)6,
6.7:5)<176 :72-+<;GGCJJJ@8E<CBE:@8E@
8E5E84>7BJA:66<A<G<4G<I8
08<;4A&1;=61<-,)<176;#0-"+:)5*4-.7:
7?-:16)6$6/7>-:6-,&7:4,4EC8EB??<AF
EB@E4:<?8GBB??4CF87)G4G8;BB7*;84F8B9G;8(8CH5?<6B9/8@8A
7:-)67=:6)47. 741+A"<=,1-; 16
... Yemen has a long withstanding history of political, social and religious turbulences and turmoils in wars with the Romans, Ethiopians, Iranian, Ottoman Turks, Portuguese, Britons, Egyptians, Saudis, etc. (Mokhtari Hashi & Shams, 2017). This tempestuous and chaotic background of the country has fueled enormous disturbances and transnational interferences within the Arab region for decades [see Dostal, (2021) for a detailed longitudinal study of Yemen between 1990 to 2020]. Present day Yemen is a result of the merging of previously two Yemenite states; the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in 1990. ...
... Present day Yemen is a result of the merging of previously two Yemenite states; the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in 1990. However, merging the tribal-dominated northern and state-party-dominated southern regimes meant increasing the number of factions competing for access to state resources (Dostal, 2021). ...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this paper is to undertake a narrative review on climate change, institutional quality, and SDGs within the context of Yemen. The methodology is a broad study of past and recent academic works related to the topic's keywords. In essence, a narrative review has been undertaken to incorporate the three interlacing issues; climate change, institutional quality, and SDG in the context of Yemen. The present research work reinforces the evidence that climate change effects are particularly more catastrophic in regions already under political, socioeconomic , and cultural pressures. Eventually, the attainment of SDGs become increasingly challenging in contexts with intense climate variability and native disturbances. Besides, the lack of quality institutions and strong governance put in peril the stability of the country, thereby making it more prone to conflicts. This eventually leads to the formation of a vicious circle where low institutional quality fecund more conflicts, which in turn further destabilizes state institutions. Overall, climate change is making matters worse for countries like Yemen, and hence this study provides an insight into the Yemenite society and economy. Since this is a narrative review with an interpretive approach, further studies should aim to engage in more econometric analysis covering the interference relationships between climate change, institutional quality, and SDGs, especially in countries facing the turmoils of war and conflict.
Article
Full-text available
This bibliography contains books, edited volumes, journal articles, book chapters, theses, grey literature, and other resources on the ongoing conflict in Yemen. It mainly features publications analyzing the Houthi insurgency, the Saudi-led military intervention, and war-related implications for the Yemeni population, regarding lacking basic social services and an ever more unfolding medical crisis as well as famine. Literature on Yemeni cultural life, religion , and economy were included when promising to enhance understanding of the long-lasting conflict.
Article
Full-text available
Yemen's war has been raging since 2015, and it has resulted in a humanitarian disaster that continues to this day. Many citizens, particularly children, are suffering as a result of the Yemen crisis. Many children in Yemen are denied their rights as a result of the conflict, such as in terms of education, access to health and recruitment of children into armed groups. The armed conflict in Yemen is motivated by the discontent of Yemenis against the government. The purpose of this paper is to explain the legal protection of children in Yemen in maintaining and saving the rights of children based on the Convention on the Rights of the Child. This study uses a normative legal research method, using a convention approach to children's rights and a case approach using a qualitative descriptive method to describe how the legal protection of children's rights in Yemen is based on the Convention on the Rights of the Child. This study found that the Convention on the Rights of the Child provides protection for children in Yemen and little by little children in Yemen are getting legal protection even though it is considered not to have fulfilled all of them because the fighting continues.
Article
Full-text available
Yemen, located on the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Quite apart from the continuing catastrophic conflict, the massive overdraw of existing groundwater due to unregulated drilling of tube wells since the 1970s has created a major water crisis that affects the future of the county’s estimated 28 million people. While once known for its rich traditions of agriculture due to its extensive highland terrace systems, spate flow and runoff water harvesting, Yemen is now food insecure, relying almost entirely on food imports. This article surveys the range of water resources in Yemen and their sustainability in light of climate change predictions. I examined government and development aid reports to highlight the causes of the water crisis and the failure of previous governments to resolve it. The situation is even more critical today, given the ongoing war between a Saudi-led coalition and a Huthi alliance that has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. I conclude with priorities for mitigating the water crisis and promoting sustainable agriculture for Yemen’s post-conflict future.
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses the Syrian conflict since 2011 in the context of the larger Middle East, focusing on local, regional and global actors. The first section highlights some geopolitical and historical factors regarding Syria. The second part outlines post-Cold War US and Israeli strategic debates on Syria and the Middle East. It is argued that US policy in the Syrian conflict since 2011 underlines the continuing significance of US-led regime change agendas as initially associated with the so-called “neoconservatives” and near unconditional US backing of Israel’s regional strategic objectives. The third section examines how local conflicts in Syria, since mid-March 2011, became transformed into a lengthy global war over world order during which the US challenged Russia’s long-standing geopolitical patronage of Syria’s political leadership. The interaction between military and political factors and the manner in which the “crisis narrative” was managed in the Western media system is also sketched. Finally, the fourth section focuses on the theory of “peripheral realism” and offers a discussion of this theory’s concept of state hierarchy applied to the Middle Eastern context. It is suggested that the war in Syria serves to destroy the existing regional state hierarchy and regional states’ potential capacity for upward mobility in the global state system.
Article
This article looks at the prospects for peace in Yemen. It offers a comprehensive overview of the current situation, including the strength of the Huthis, the interests involvement of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and western powers, the individual situation of the various regions and provinces of Yemen, its economy, the question of terrorist presences in the country, and the attempts made to reach a settlement between all sides. The article argues that at present the prospects for a peaceful cessation of the conflict are poor and that it is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Article
The 2011 Yemeni Uprising, generally subsumed under the “Arab Spring” in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere, was popularly portrayed as being “secular” but subsequently hijacked by “religious” forces. Such ubiquitous assumptions take for granted that democracy is essentially secular. This essay examines the secularizing effects embedded in the language and epistemology of security concerns invoked by international and regional powers vis-à-vis Yemen, allowing powerful states to intervene in matters of politics and religion. They generate and are generated by a culture of apprehension, which is cultivated and circulated within a discursive social space of security practices. This culture, I contend, has produced Yemen as a “security crisis” over the longue durée, and was articulated through discourses of republic protection and weak state security since the Cold War, and given new life by the “Global War on Terror”. It is these secular security discourses and the culture of apprehension they generate, rallied by the international and regional powers such as the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which discursively produced and maintained a “weak” Yemeni state, thereby justifying the de-democratizing interventions in the Yemeni polity. I conclude by arguing that attending to the effect of such discourses may explain the world’s largest humanitarian crisis Yemen has become.
Article
Civil nuclear cooperation is a part of China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Although the complex nature of nuclear technology and scale of the BRI program are likely to have substantial influences on the global nuclear landscape, research regarding the BRI nuclear cooperation is scarce. Given that paucity, our article aims at providing a fuller understanding of the program and policy implications. Distinctive parts include the BRI's economic dirigisme and new norms reflected to this nuclear cooperation, which draw a range of implications to the global nuclear future. Noting that the value of “win-win” is at the center of the BRI, this research highlights the need for a practical approach in the BRI nuclear cooperation and more emphasis on renewable energies. The roles of international community and regulators in the changing global nuclear market are also discussed.
Article
What has been China’s approach to conflict management in the Middle East? The article begins with a review of Chinese responses to conflict, its wariness at intervention and the emergence of a new model of third-party intervention labelled ‘quasi-mediation’. The article then examines three cases of conflict in the region since 2011 and China’s engagement with them: in Libya, Syria and Yemen. While quasi-mediation is not the principal form of Chinese behavior in each case, several common themes are present. They include Chinese wariness at the initial protests; rhetorical appeals for political dialogue between government and opposition and national unity; deference to powerful external actors with interests in the conflict-affected state; and a willingness to pursue commercial opportunities, which advantage some actors and marginalize others. The article therefore suggests that China is not currently making use of quasi-mediation in the Middle East, but that cross-regional comparative studies may reveal if it is occurring elsewhere.
Article
In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the proposal of a “New Maritime Silk Road” in conjunction with China’s “Silk Road Economic Belt” project or “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative to support China’s growing economy and to expand the PRC’s economic influence and network across Eurasia on land and at sea. This article examines the Maritime Silk Road initiative and how it aligns with a larger Chinese maritime strategy to expand China’s maritime presence in the Indian Ocean and Middle East for economic, political, and security reasons. It also looks at how China might soon be well positioned to act as an additional stabilizing force for the broader Middle East. Through an in-depth case study, it will examine China’s increased presence and interest in the world’s most strategic chokepoints: the Bab al-Mandeb. China’s navy has been an important contributor to the Combined Task Force 150 counter-piracy exercises off the Horn of Africa and Arabian Sea and this might bode well for a larger footprint in Djibouti and into the Arabian Peninsula. Understanding China’s increased presence in Djibouti and at the Bab al-Mandeb, in addition to new and emerging regional economic and political partnerships with China, is vitally important for our understanding of future regional security and politics.
Book
Tribes and Politics in Yemen tells the story of the Houthi conflict in Sa’dah Province, Yemen, as seen through the eyes of the local tribes. The Houthi conflict, which erupted in 2004, is often defined through the lenses of either the Iranian-Saudi proxy war or the Sunni-Shia divide. Yet, as experienced by locals, the Houthi conflict is much more deeply rooted in the recent history of Sa’dah Province and northern Yemen. Its origins must be sought in the political, economic, social and sectarian transformations since the 1960s civil war and their repercussions on the local society, which is dominated by tribal norms. From the civil war to the Houthi conflict these transformations involve the same individuals, families and groups, and are driven by the same struggles over resources, prerogatives, and power. This book is based on years of anthropological fieldwork both on the ground and through digital anthropological approaches. It offers an intimate view of the local complexities of the Houthi conflict and its historical background. By doing so, it underscores the absolute imperative of understanding the highly local, personal, and non-ideological nature of internal conflict in Yemen.
Book
Since March 2015, a Saudi-led international coalition of forces-supported by Britain and the United States-has waged devastating war in Yemen. Largely ignored by the world's media, the resulting humanitarian disaster and full-scale famine threatens millions. Destroying Yemen offers the first in-depth historical account of the transnational origins of this war, placing it in the illuminating context of Yemen's relationship with major powers since the Cold War. Bringing new sources and a deep understanding to bear on Yemen's profound, unwitting implication in international affairs, this explosive book ultimately tells an even larger story of today's political economy of global capitalism, development, and the war on terror as disparate actors intersect in Arabia.