Article

ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INNOVATION LEVEL AND THE PROCESS OF DISTRIBUTING GENERATIONS OF AN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT

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Abstract

This article assesses the relationship between the level of innovation and the process of spreading generations of an industrial product among the consumers on the example of generations of a stationary game console from Sony. This work follows the scientific direction of modeling and forecasting the spread of innovations; it contains the results of the analysis of the dynamics in the change of successive generations of an industrial product. The relevance of the research topic lies in the increased competition between companies engaged in innovative activities. This results in the need to determine the reasonable directions of technical, technological, and market development of the developed innovations in the form of new and improved products. This study uses the mathematical model by F. Bass, supplemented by the provisions of T. Islam and N. Meade on the variability of consumer behavior of different generations. The conducted review of research literature has revealed an insufficient elaboration of the issue of a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the relationship between the rate of spread of generations and the changes made to them. The authors draw hypotheses about the independence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other and the dependence of the level of innovativeness of the next generation of industrial products on technological, consumer and marketing changes. As a set of changes, this article proposes parameters of the purchase price and the cost of operating each generation. The authors have tested the hypothesis on statistical data of generational sales for 1994-2019 using correlation analysis. The results have shown the absence of the influence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other, as well as the presence of a connection and its strength between the level of innovativeness of the next generation and the changes made in the generations. The data obtained can be used for further mathematical formalization of the influence of the level of innovativeness of generations on the process of their distribution.

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This article studies the process of spreading generations of industrial products in the competitive market and assessing the influence of the characteristics of generations of products and destabilizing factors on the volume of their sales. The level of innovation and competitiveness of generations is used as characteristics, their definition and mathematical formalization are given. The study uses the generalized model of F. Bass, the provisions of the concept of “multi-product competition” by R. Peterson and V. Mahajan, and the concept of the va­riability of consumer behavior of different generations by T. Islam and N. Mead. A model of the spreading of generations of industrial products of competing brands in the duopole market is obtained, taking into account destabilizing factors. Based on this model, equations are constructed that establish the relationship between the shares of consumers of competing generations of pro­ducts. The statistical data on the spreading of generations of video game consoles from Sony and Microsoft in the global and regional markets serve as a basis for approbation. To identify the parameters of the model and determine the presence and closeness of the relationship, correlation-regression analysis and the least squares method are used. These results demonstrate a high level of correlation between the sales volume of each console generation and the characteristics of the console generations. It was found that with an increase in the influence exerted by a competitor, the cumulative market share of the considered generation of the product decreases, and with an increase in the level of innovation of the generation of the product, its level of competitiveness increases. The obtained results of processing the predicted and actual data on the spread of generations demonstrate a significant influence of destabilizing factors on the process of spreading generations. The theo­retical significance of the work consists in the development of a model for the distribution of generations of industrial products for a particular case with a duapole market structure. The practical significance lies in obtaining the calculated values of the link between the sales volume of each generation of consoles and their characteristics.
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