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The current study explores the link between tourist demand and terrorism in Egypt using monthly data for the period from 1995 to 2018. We aim to investigate whether this relationship is unidirectional of bidirectional and whether it exhibits persistence in the long run. Terrorism is proxied by performing principal component analysis on the number of terrorist incidents and the number of resulting deaths and injuries. We test for cointegration employing a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction. We find evidence of a long-term cointegrating relationship between tourism and terrorism. Our empirical results show that the direction of this causal relationship is from terrorism to tourism only, meaning that policymakers should not expect a rise in terrorist activity during periods of increased tourist arrivals. Our findings indicate that authorities should enforce strict measures against terrorism in order to promote safety and security within the tourism context.

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... They found that terrorists' attacks had a powerful positive effect on tourist arrivals and confirmed the presence of terrorism spillover effect using vector auto regressive model. Polyzos, Papadopoulou, and Xesfingi (2021) explored the link between tourist demand and terrorism in Egypt using monthly data for the period from 1995 to 2018. That study used Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction. ...
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Tourism is influenced by a wide range of factors and forces including exogenous ones that have no direct link to the tourism industry. Terrorism and natural disasters are two examples of such factors. Individuals, organizations and culture, all are affected by them. This study analyzes the impact of natural disasters and terrorism on tourism growth by using a panel data for the period 1995-2019 collected from a variety of sources. Tourism is the dependent variable whereas natural disasters, terrorism are independent and economic growth, tourism employment, tourism investment and alcohol consumption are the control variables of the study. This study used pooled mean group and robust least square estimation. The findings show that natural disasters and terrorism have varying degrees of impact on tourism growth. While there is a positive outcome in some situations, the overall influence is negative. Findings of the study suggest that understanding the relationship between natural disasters, terrorism, and tourism is beneficial to destination operators who are responsible for rehabilitation, restoration, and promotion.
... Measuring terrorism is a challenge as Yaya (2009) argues there might be different proxies for different countries. Polyzos et al. (2021) have suggested that the number of incidents, number of casualties, and number of injuries could be used as proxies to measure terrorism. Additionally, Dragicěvić (2019) has also implied that the number of terrorist incidents could be utilised as a proxy. ...
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... And there is nothing peculiar about such behaviour because a sense of security is mentioned as one of basic human needs. However, Egypt has been struggling with armed conflicts, social unrest and terrorist attacks for many years, which brand this country as unstable and unpredictable, and therefore not really safe (Polyzos et al. 2021). ...
Article
The essence of the research concerns the impact of armed conflicts and terrorist attacks on the arrivals of foreign tourists with Egypt selected as the testing ground. It was found that revolutions and terrorist attacks have a negative impact on the development of the tourism industry – following the social unrest that took place in Egypt in the years 1997, 2011 and 2015, the number of arrivals of foreign tourists decreased by: 13%, 33% and 42% respectively (depending on countries of the world the reduction of the flow of tourists was within the range of 21-78%). The decrease in the number of tourists which takes place after a terrorist attack is short-lived and usually does not last longer than a year, whereas the consequences of a revolution are noticeable for tourism for a period of 3 to 5 years. According to respondents, the most important consequence of social unrest (protests, demonstrations, terrorist attacks) for tourism is a drop in the number of arrivals of foreign tourists, reduction in the income generated by tourism, decline in employment in tourism and the general slowdown in the development of tourism.
... Technically, most of these properties are accounted for by using non-linear econometric models involving the use of stationary and non-stationary data such as unit root tests with structural breaks, long-range dependence process, structural changes model, or a combination of two or more of the previously cited techniques (see Cunado et al., 2008;and Charfeddine & Goaied, 2019 among others). In the second category, both fundamentals and non-fundamentals factors are used to explain the tourism demand (see Balli et al., 2019;Bassil et al., 2019;Charfeddine & Goaied, 2019;Polyzos, Papadopoulou, and Fotiadis, 2021;Polyzos, Papadopoulou, and Xesfingi, 2021;Sun & Luo, 2021). ...
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This paper analyses the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks over the period from January 1997 to December 2018. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, our results show strong evidence for the existence of an asymmetric effect of terrorist attacks on tourism receipts and the number of tourist arrivals. Interestingly, the results reveal that terrorist attacks decreases have a higher impact on tourism demand compared to the impact of terrorist attacks increases. This finding confirms the resilience of the Turkey tourism sector to exogenous shocks. The result indicates the significant role of the Turkey government in supporting the tourism sector during periods of instability. These findings offer several valuable insights for policy-makers and researchers.
... Lim (1997), who provides a comprehensive review of empirical studies of inbound tourism demand, found that the most common explanatory variables in tourism demand models are income, relative tourism prices, and transportation costs, while tourist arrivals/departures or tourist spending/receipts are the common dependent variables (Lim, 1997: 839-841 and they found that the absence of crisis increased tourism demand. Polyzos et al. (2021) investigated the relationship between terrorism and tourism demand in Egypt, based on 2,229 terrorist events that caused 3,650 fatalities and approximately 4,520 injuries between 1995 and 2018. As expected, terrorism reduced tourist arrivals in Egypt. ...
... Lim (1997), who provides a comprehensive review of empirical studies of inbound tourism demand, found that the most common explanatory variables in tourism demand models are income, relative tourism prices, and transportation costs, while tourist arrivals/departures or tourist spending/receipts are the common dependent variables (Lim, 1997: 839-841 and they found that the absence of crisis increased tourism demand. Polyzos et al. (2021) investigated the relationship between terrorism and tourism demand in Egypt, based on 2,229 terrorist events that caused 3,650 fatalities and approximately 4,520 injuries between 1995 and 2018. As expected, terrorism reduced tourist arrivals in Egypt. ...
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Egypt – a “must see” destination for generations of visitors – is considered to be one of the strongest tourism brands in the Middle East and tourism remains its dominant industry, accounting for 20% of its annual GDP. Over the past decades the country has suffered many crises such as wars, terrorist attacks, internal political tensions and violent changes in government. As can be expected, all of these were reported in the international media and had a negative effect on the flow of tourism into the country. By adopting the “multi-step model for altering place image,” this study includes qualitative content analysis of news reports, press interviews and relevant elements of advertising campaigns in order to uncover media policy, strategies, events and marketing initiatives used by Egyptian marketers and officials in order to restore a positive image of their country and bring back tourists after crises. The analysis shows that three types of strategies were used by Egyptian marketers to repair the country's image: source, message and audience; and a variety of other steps were also adopted.
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Nation Branding: Concepts, Issues, Practice is a comprehensive and exciting text that demonstrates why nations are embracing the principles of brand management. It clearly explains how the concepts and techniques of branding can be adapted to the context of nations- as opposed to the more usual context of products, services, or companies. Concepts grounded in the brand management literature such as brand identity, brand image, brand positioning, and brand equity, are transposed to the domain of nation branding and supported by country case insights that provide vivid illustrations of nation branding in practice. Nation branding is a means by which more and more nations are attempting to compete on the global stage. Current practice in nation branding is examined and future horizons traced. The book provides: The first overview of its kind on nation branding A blend of academic theory and real world practice in an accessible, readable fashion A clear and detailed adaptation of existing brand theory to the emerging domain of nation branding An original conceptual framework and models for nation branding A rich range of international examples and over 20 contributions by leading experts from around the world Country case insights on nation branding strategies currently being utilized by nations such as Japan, Egypt, Brazil, Switzerland, Iceland, and Russia Clearly and coherently structured, the book is an essential introduction to nation branding for both students and policymakers and will be an essential text for those interested in this fast growing area.
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A considerable amount of literature has been published on the relationship between tourism and economic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical works for the Middle East and North Africa countries, especially for Morocco and Tunisia. Therefore, assessing the tourism-growth nexus in Morocco and Tunisia is essential. This study uses the Feder's theoretical growth model to explain the relationship between tourism and economic growth in these two countries. Cointegration and Granger causality tests are the main econometric approaches used in this study. Overall, we find that economic growth, tourism and capital are cointegrated in both countries. Furthermore, the results show that tourism Granger-causes economic growth, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Morocco and Tunisia. Therefore, economic growth of these countries can be sustained through the expansion of their tourism sectors.
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The socio-political unrest known as the "Arab Spring" has left its imprint on the tourism sector of the Arab region. This paper explores first the effects of the Arab Spring on the macro-tourism performance of selected Arab countries, both oil and non-oil, using official tourism and macro-economic statistical data. Subsequently, it examines the policies and strategies adopted by the Arab governments in order to mitigate the evolving tourism crisis in the non-oil Arab states. Finally, it examines the relationships between the Non-oil and GCC countries with respect to the tourism trends characterizing the Arab World since the outbreak of the, so-called, Arab Spring. It concluded that the tourism "pain" of the non-oil Arab countries became the "gain" of the GCC countries, which have been perceived by both intra-regional and international tourists as safer to visit. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the future tourism prospects for both the non-oil and the GCC countries. Assuming that the socio-political unrest accompanied by safety and security threat to tourists in some of the non-oil Arab countries will prevail at least in the foreseeable future, the paper points at further research directions in order to monitor these future trends.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the direction of the causality between tourism development and economic growth in Lebanon between 1995 and 2013, after taking into consideration terrorist incidents and their intensities. These are considered as exogenous shocks that affect tourism development and economic growth instantaneously and with a lag. Design/methodology/approach – To reach the objectives, the authors estimate a vector auto regressive model with exogenous variables, applying a series of unit root tests with and without structural breaks and the Granger causality test. Findings – The findings suggest a positive unidirectional causality running from tourism development to economic growth in the short run. Thus, the authors find evidence for the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in Lebanon despite the exposure of the country to frequent terrorist incidents. The impulse response functions reveal that tourism development (economic growth) responds positively to a positive shock to economic growth (tourism development). Practical implications – The findings call for Lebanese policy makers aiming at promoting growth to design policies that encourage tourism, such as implementing tourism marketing policies and building the needed tourism infrastructure. Such policies will have positive but transitory effects on economic growth. The findings may also be useful for regional representatives of intergovernmental organizations and the offices of statistics of United Nations World Tourism Organization and the World Bank to better understand the tourism industry in Lebanon and similar countries suffering from instabilities. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the existing literature in three points: despite the importance of the tourism industry to the Lebanese economy, this topic did not receive careful attention in the literature; it takes into consideration the presence of structural breaks and possible nonlinearities in the number of tourist arrivals; and it investigates the TLGH after accounting for instability in the country.
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Over recent years the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations have secured the right to host several major international sporting events. Growth in tourism from developed countries is crucial to turn these events into a successful strategy for economic development. In this paper we use monthly country-by-country arrival data toassess the impact of organising the FIFA 2010 World Cup on tourism in South Africa. We find that South Africa attracted around 220,000 extra arrivals from non-Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries during the event, and 300,000 over the entire year. These numbers are less than the predictions made by the organisers prior to the event andimply that the total cost per extra non-SADC visitor amounted to $13,000. © Theauthor 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved.
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This paper uses a dynamic panel data model to analyse the effects of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. We use annual data from 2010 to 2013 for a widely dispersed set of 124 countries of origin covering Europe, Asia, the Americas and Africa. The result suggests that a one per cent increase in fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals by about 0.13 per cent. This translates to a reduction of about 2,507.5 visitors per year and roughly 157.1 million Kenya Shillings lost in tourism revenue per year for every one unit increase in fatality. Other proxies for terrorism, such as incidence or casualties, have a similar effect, indicating the robustness of the results. On the other hand, previous visits have a strong and positive effect on the level of current arrivals.
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Maritime terrorism is a neglected area of research in tourism, particularly the use of scenario planning to understand potential threats to the cruise industry. Since the events of 9/11, terrorism, and the threat of terrorism, has become a major concern within the tourism industry. This article analyses tourist perception of perceived terrorist threats given that many ships are American owned. Using the scenario analysis presented by Greenberg, Chalk, Willis, Khilko, and Ortiz, this study suggests that an attack on a cruise ship is a distinct possibility. Indeed, 44% of respondents questioned perceived the possibility of a terrorist attack on a cruise ship to be likely despite the fact that safety and security is seen by the industry as a ‘hallmark’ of cruising. Differences in attitude among potential passengers revealed a high level of confidence in the cruise ship companies. This finding is particularly marked among more experienced cruise ship passengers. However, this did not necessarily preclude the possibility of security measures being improved. All passengers appeared generally resigned to the fact that risk is associated with travel in the twenty-first century and welcomed any efforts by cruise shipping companies to improve safety and security.
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Looking at the current political turmoil across the globe, this study aims to analyze the effects of interaction between political instability and terrorism on tourism development using panel data from 139 countries for the period 1999-2009. The study measures the extent to which a country's political conflicts and terrorism can negatively impact its tourism industry. The results reveal that the effect of political instability on tourism is far more severe than the effects of one-off terrorist attacks. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that terrorist attacks increase tourism demand for those low- to moderate-political-risk countries. However, countries that experience high levels of political risk witness significant reductions in their tourism businesses. In addition, political volatility and terrorism together can cause serious damage to the tourism industry.
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The present investigation examines the effect of the July 22nd, 2011 Oslo/Utøya massacres on short- and long-term risk perceptions and worries among tourists. Convenience samples of tourists to Norway rated the perceived risk regarding Norway as a destination and regarding terrorism occurring in Norway, as well as their worries about terrorism during their current trip to Norway. Data were collected in 2004, 2010, 2011 (before and after July 22nd), and in 2012. Results show that risk perceptions and worries are relatively low. Perceived risk remained unchanged from 2004 until 2011, and did not change immediately after the attacks. However in 2012 perceived risk for Norway as a destination and worries about terrorism declined. Possible explanations for these unexpected findings are being discussed.
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Tourism destinations in every corner of the globe face the virtual certainty of experiencing a disaster of one form or another at some point in their history. Despite this, few destinations have properly developed disaster management plans in place to help them cope with such eventualities. Among the reasons for this is the limited amount of systematic research that has been carried out in the field. This paper addresses this problem by drawing on insights from the broader disaster management literature to produce a generic model for analysing and developing tourism disaster management strategies. A set of prerequisites and principles of effective tourism disaster management planning is also provided.
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For Egyptian tourism and hospitality university students, mastering English is a prerequisite for getting a job related to their major after graduation. The study reported in this paper examined the English language preparation of tourism and hospitality undergraduates in Egypt and its adequacy as perceived by teachers and students. The interview data showed that the students' views on their English language preparation and on their perceived English language needs differed from those of their teachers. Highlighting some shortcomings of the English language instruction provided to these students, the study suggests reshaping it in a way that could optimally help them be well-prepared for meeting their future workplace requirements.
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This article reviews and critiques current strain-based explanations of terrorism, then draws on general strain theory and the terrorism research to present a general strain theory of terrorism. This theory states that terrorism is most likely when people experience ‘collective strains’ that are: (a) high in magnitude, with civilians affected; (b) unjust; and (c) inflicted by significantly more powerful others, including ‘complicit’ civilians, with whom members of the strained collectivity have weak ties. These collective strains increase the likelihood of terrorism for several reasons, but they do not lead to terrorism in all cases—a range of factors condition their effect.
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On Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001, 19 suicide hijackers took control of four United States commercial airplanes and crashed them, respectively, into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC) in New York City, the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and in a field in Somerset County, west of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An estimated 5000–6000 people were killed. The cost of the tragedy, in terms of rebuilding, is estimated at about $105 billion (CNN Television News Report, October 5, 2001). The tourism industry in America was severely affected, with immediate declines in airline passenger loads of 50% and more, and similar declines in hotel occupancy.This article describes the impacts of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the travel and tourism industry in the USA. It is compiled from the wealth of secondary data published in the print media, news reports on major television networks in the USA (e.g., ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN), and informal discussions with 50 Executive MBA students and 21 faculty members at a university in the southeastern part of the USA. It is divided into six parts: (1) background: sequence of events; (2) impacts on the travel and tourism industry; (3) managerial implications; (4) future research; (5) limitation; and (6) summary and conclusion.
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The relationship between crime and tourism is discussed. After suggesting a classification of the relationship between crime and tourism, it is suggested that further analysis must recognize that both tourism and crime are demands derived from a wider social context. The practical implications for tour operators are also discussed.
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Recently, methods for detecting unit roots in autoregressive and autoregressive-moving average time series have been proposed. The presence of a unit root indicates that the time series is not stationary but that differencing will reduce it to stationarity. The tests proposed to date require specification of the number of autoregressive and moving average coefficients in the model. In this paper we develop a test for unit roots which is based on an approximation of an autoregressive-moving average model by an autoregression. The test statistic is standard output from most regression programs and has a limit distribution whose percentiles have been tabulated. An example is provided.
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Purpose This paper aims to present a model including essential constructs for the measurement of travellers' characteristics in a perceived unsafe destination. This model functions as the basis for three empirical case studies testing the relevance and explanatory power of stable factors regarded as crises‐resistant (e.g. values and holiday preferences) and dependent aspects regarded as crises‐sensitive (attitudes, perceptions and holiday activities). Design/methodology/approach In total, 930 tourists completed a standardized questionnaire in three regions confronted with or threatened by terrorist attacks as a specific form of tourist crisis (Bali, Indonesia; Sinai, Egypt and Catalonia, Spain). Owing to the coincidence that during fieldwork the second attack on Bali happened it was possible to compare travellers before and after the attack and to test the conception of crises‐stable and crises‐sensitive factors (RQ1). Linear multiple regressions were run to detect significant influence factors on sensation seeking and holiday needs (based on the whole sample) (RQ2) and on risk perceptions and intercultural contact efforts (analysed separately for every destination) (RQ3). Findings The results in Bali predominantly justify the model of crises‐stable and crises‐resistant indicators. Considering influences on the stable level values referring to openness for change (self direction, hedonism and stimulation) and to self transcendence (universalism, benevolence) exert the highest influence on travel needs. The weak influences of sensation seeking on security feelings during a holiday lead to the conclusion that these two constructs have to be clearly differed. The perception of a convenient, relaxing atmosphere, a low awareness of risks on holidays and a commitment towards tourism‐related problems seem to be highly relevant for open contacts with the host society. Originality/value The empirical results of the study in Bali are of particular importance because there is still little scientific knowledge about the immediate psychological reactions of tourists to crises states in destinations. Highly relevant explanatory factors are reported in this study due to high effect sizes regarding sensation seeking, holiday needs and intercultural communication efforts.