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External Differentiated Integration: The Modalities of Turkey’s Opting into the European Union

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With Brexit imminent, the debate on the need for differentiated integration (DI) by means of opting-out has gained new momentum. At the same time, non-member states decide to adopt European Union (EU) rules as exemplified by the European Neighbourhood Policy. In light of these opposing observations, we examine the EU's disposition to supply DI. We outline the strategic interactions of the EU member states or non-members in the context of two forms of DI: opting-out and inducing-in. In the case of opting-out, EU member states can refrain from adopting EU rules; inducing-in refers to providing non-member states with incentives to adopt EU rules. We show that the information asymmetries inherent to the strategic interactions result in a situation in which the EU is likely to supply opportunities to opt-out for member states to a much greater extent than necessary. Furthermore, the EU is likely to offer more compensation to non-member states in exchange for adopting EU rules than it would actually need to.
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The relationship between Turkey and the EU entered a new phrase on October 3, 2005 with the opening of Turkey’s accession negotiations. This paper proposes that the specific juncture that European integration finds itself in and the perceptions of Turkey’s fit into Europe are the main variables around which member states’ preferences and the European public’s position on the Turkish accession are shaped. This is different from arguing that Turkey’s adoption of the EU acquis would determine its accession. Turkey’s adoption of the EU acquis/criteria is necessary but not sufficient on its own, as other factors will shape Turkey’s accession. These factors are the convergence of member states’ interests, the public approval and the EU’s internal dynamics. This paper concludes by arguing that the interplay of the utilitarian concerns, the ideational factors and the EU’s internal dynamics is the key to understand the conditions under which Turkey’s accession talks will proceed.
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