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Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia

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Abstract

We analyze the local effect of exogenous shocks to the value of mineral deposits on a panel of manufacturing plants in Indonesia. We introduce heterogeneity in natural resource extraction methods, which helps to explain the mixed evidence found in the ‘Dutch disease’ literature. In districts where mineral extraction is relatively capital intensive, mining booms cause virtually no upward pressure on manufacturing wages, and both producers of more heavily traded and relatively less-traded manufacturing goods benefit from mining booms in terms of employment. In contrast, labor-intensive mining booms drive up local wages such that heavily traded goods producers respond by reducing employment.

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We study the impact of intersectoral and interregional trade linkages in propagating disaggregated productivity changes to the rest of the economy. Using U.S. regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured total factor productivity, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes.We find that the elasticities vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected, and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the economy. We use our calibrated model to perform a variety of counterfactual exercises including several specific studies of the aggregate and disaggregate effects of shocks to productivity and infrastructure. The specific episodes we study include the boom in California's computer industry, the productivity boom in North Dakota associated with the shale oil boom, the disruptions in New York's finance and real state industries during the 2008 crisis, as well as the effect of the destruction of infrastructure in Louisiana following hurricane Katrina. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
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Do natural resources benefit producer economies, or is there a "Natural Resource Curse", perhaps as the crowd-out of manufacturing productivity spillovers reduces long-term growth?We combine new data on oil and gas endowments with Census of Manufactures microdata to estimate how oil and gas booms affect local economies in the U.S. Local wages rise during oil and gas booms, but manufacturing is not crowded out-in fact, the sector grows overall, driven by upstream and locally-traded subsectors. Tradable manufacturing subsectors do contract during resource booms, but their productivity is unaffected, so there is no evidence of foregone local learning-by-doing effects. Over the full 1969-2014 sample, a county with one standard deviation additional oil and gas endowment averaged about 1% higher real wages. Overall, the results provide evidence against a Natural Resource Curse within the U.S. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
Article
We show that oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to oil prices, while drilling activity and costs respond strongly. To explain these facts, we reformulate Hotelling’s classic model of exhaustible resource extraction as a drilling problem: firms choose when to drill, but production from existing wells is constrained by reservoir pressure, which decays as oil is extracted. The model implies a modified Hotelling rule for drilling revenues net of costs, explains why the production constraint typically binds, and rationalizes regional production peaks and observed patterns of prices, drilling, and production following demand and supply shocks.
Article
The observed uneven distribution of economic activity across space is influenced by variation in exogenous geographical characteristics and endogenous interactions between agents in goods and factor markets. Until the past decade, the theoretical literature on economic geography had focused on stylized settings that could not easily be taken to the data. This article reviews more recent research that has developed quantitative models of economic geography. These models are rich enough to speak to first-order features of the data, such as many heterogeneous locations and gravity equation relationships for trade and commuting. At the same time, these models are sufficiently tractable to undertake realistic counterfactual exercises to study the effect of changes in amenities, productivity, and public policy interventions such as transport infrastructure investments. We provide an extensive taxonomy of the different building blocks of these quantitative spatial models and discuss their main properties and quantification.
Article
The combining of horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing unleashed a boom in oil and natural gas production in the US. This technological shift interacts with local geology to create an exogenous shock to county income and employment. We measure the effects of these shocks within the county where production occurs and track their geographic propagation. Every million dollars of oil and gas extracted produces 66,000inwageincome,66,000 in wage income, 61,000 in royalty payments, and 0.78 jobs within the county. Outside the immediate county but within the region, the economic impacts are over three times larger. Within 100 miles of the new production, one million dollars generates 243,000inwages,243,000 in wages, 117,000 in royalties, and 2.49 jobs. Thus, over a third of the fracking revenue stays within the regional economy. Our results suggest new oil and gas extraction led to an increase in aggregate US employment of 725,000 and a 0.5 percent decrease in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession.
Article
We show that oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to price incentives. Drilling activity and costs, however, do respond strongly to prices. To explain these facts, we reformulate Hotelling's (1931) classic model of exhaustible resource extraction as a drilling problem: firms choose when to drill, but production from existing wells is constrained by reservoir pressure, which decays as oil is extracted. The model implies a modified Hotelling rule for drilling revenues net of costs and explains why production is typically constrained. It also rationalizes regional production peaks and observed patterns of price expectations following demand shocks.
Article
Over the past decade the production of tight oil and shale gas significantly increased in the United States. This paper examines how this energy boom has affected regional crime rates throughout the country. We find positive effects on rates of various property and violent crimes in shale-rich counties. In 2013, the cost of the additional crimes in the average treatment county was roughly $2 million. These results are not easily explained by shifts in observed demographics like gender and age. There is however evidence that people with criminal records (registered sex offenders) moved disproportionally to shale-boom towns in North Dakota. We also document a rise in income inequality (a postulated determinant of criminal activity) that coincides with the timing of the energy boom. Policy makers in boom towns should anticipate these crime effects and invest in public infrastructure accordingly.
Article
The cross-country empirical evidence for the natural resource curse is ample, but unfortunately fraught with econometric difficulties. A recent wave of studies on measuring the impact of natural resource windfalls on the economy exploits novel datasets such as giant oil discoveries to identify effects of windfalls, uses natural experiments and within-country econometric analysis, and estimates local impacts. These studies offer more hope in the search of quantitative evidence.
Article
We consider statistical inference for regression when data are grouped into clusters, with regression model errors independent across clusters but correlated within clusters. Examples include data on individuals with clustering on village or region or other category such as industry, and state- year differences- in- differences studies with clustering on state. In such settings, default standard errors can greatly overstate estimator precision. Instead, if the number of clusters is large, statistical inference after OLS should be based on cluster- robust standard errors. We outline the basic method as well as many complications that can arise in practice. These include cluster- specifi c fi xed effects, few clusters, multiway clustering, and estimators other than OLS. © 2015 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.
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This paper examines the local economic impact of Yanacocha, a large gold mine in Northern Peru. Using annual household data from 1997 to 2006, we find evidence of a positive effect of the mine's demand for local inputs on real income. The effects are only present in the supply market and surrounding areas, and reach unskilled workers in nonmining sectors. Consistent with a general equilibrium framework, we also find an increase in the local price of nontradable goods. Taken together, our results underline the potential of backward linkages from extractive industries to create positive spillovers in less developed economies.
Article
Using data from Pennsylvania and New York and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors, we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from shale gas development that vary with geographic scale, water source, well productivity, and visibility. Results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwater-dependent homes, while piped-water-dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts, suggesting benefits from lease payments. At a broader geographic scale, we find that new wellbores increase property values, but these effects diminish over time. Undrilled permits cause property values to decrease. Results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development.
Article
We study the long run effects of one of the most ambitious place-based eco-nomic development policies in U.S. history: the Tennessee Valley Authority. We first conduct an evaluation of the dynamic effects of the TVA on local economies in the six decades since its inception. We find that TVA led to short run gains in agricultural employment that were eventually reversed, while impacts on man-ufacturing employment continued to intensify well after the program had scaled down. This pattern is potentially consistent with the presence of strong agglomer-ation economies and multiple steady states in the manufacturing sector. However, it is also consistent with models with a unique steady state and slow adjustment. To differentiate between these two possibilities, we estimate a simple dynamic county level model of agglomeration that allows for multiple steady states. We find clear evidence of agglomeration effects, but no sign that these effects are strong enough to generate multiple steady states, suggesting that the gains to the TVA region will eventually be reversed. Moreover, we find little evidence of nonlinearity in agglomeration economies, implying the aggregate productivity effects of place-based development policies are probably limited. * We thank Jesse Rothstein, Chang Hseih, and seminar participants at Berkeley Econ, Berkeley Haas, the Econometric Society Summer Meetings, Humboldt, Michigan, the NBER Summer Institute, Pompeu Fabra, Stanford and UBC for useful comments. We gratefully acknowledge the Berkeley Center for Equitable Growth for funding support. We thank Valentina Paredes for excellent research assistance.
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The current U.S. oil and gas boom is injecting labour, capital, and revenue into communities near reserves. Will these communities be cursed with lower long run incomes in the wake of the boom? We study the oil boom-and-bust cycle of the 1970s and 1980s to gain insights. Using annual data on drilling to identify western boom-and-bust counties, we find substantial positive local employment and income effects during the boom. In the aftermath of the bust, however, we find that incomes per capita decreased and unemployment compensation payments increased relative to what they would have been if the boom had not occurred.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Article
This paper extends a recent class of quantitative models of international trade to incorporate factor mobility within countries. We present a model-based decomposition of the variance of economic activity into the contributions of locational fundamentals, market access and their covariance. We show how the standard framework for undertaking model-based counterfactuals in trade can be augmented to obtain predictions for endogenous changes in the distribution of economic activity across regions within countries. A region's trade share with itself is no longer a sufficient statistic for the welfare gains from trade, which also depend on endogenous changes in the distribution of mobile factors.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
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How do income shocks affect armed conflict? Theory suggests two opposite effects. If labour is used to appropriate resources violently, higher wages may lower conflict by reducing labour supplied to appropriation. This is the opportunity cost effect. Alternatively, a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation. This is the rapacity effect. Our article exploits exogenous price shocks in international commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in Colombia to assess how different income shocks affect conflict. We examine changes in the price of agricultural goods (which are labour intensive) as well as natural resources (which are not). We focus on Colombia's two largest exports, coffee and oil. We find that a sharp fall in coffee prices during the 1990s lowered wages and increased violence differentially in municipalities cultivating more coffee. This is consistent with the coffee shock inducing an opportunity cost effect. In contrast, a rise in oil prices increased both municipal revenue and violence differentially in the oil region. This is consistent with the oil shock inducing a rapacity effect. We also show that this pattern holds in six other agricultural and natural resource sectors, providing evidence that price shocks affect conflict in different directions depending on the type of the commodity.
Article
Demonstrates that technical change is attributable to experience. The cumulative production of capital goods is used as the index of experience. New capital goods are assumed to completely embody technical change. The assumption is made that the model will be operating in an environment of full employment although reference is made throughout to the case of capital shortage. The implications of this model on wage earners are discussed, and profits and investments are examined. The rate of return is determined by the expected rate of increase in wages, current labor costs per unit output, and the physical lifetime of the investment. Learning is an act of investment that benefits future investors. Further analysis shows that the socially optimal ratio of gross investment to output is higher than the competitive level. (SRD)
Article
Estimating markups has a long tradition in industrial organization and international trade. Economists and policy makers are interested in measuring the effect of various competition and trade policies on market power, typically measured by markups. The empirical methods that were developed in empirical industrial organization often rely on the availability of very detailed market-level data with information on prices, quantities sold, characteristics of products and more recently supplemented with consumer-level attributes. Often, both researchers and government agencies cannot rely on such detailed data, but still need an assessment of whether changes in the operating environment of firms had an impact on markups and therefore on consumer surplus. In this paper, we derive an estimating equation to estimate markups using standard production plant-level data based on the insight of Hall (1986) and the control function approach of Olley and Pakes (1996). Our methodology allows for various underlying price setting models, dynamic inputs, and does not require measuring the user cost of capital or assuming constant returns to scale. We rely on our method to explore the relationship between markups and export behavior using plant-level data. We find that i) markups are estimated significantly higher when controlling for unobserved productivity, ii) exporters charge on average higher markups and iii) firms’ markups increase (decrease) upon export entry (exit). We see these findings as a first step in opening up the productivity-export black box, and provide a potential explanation for the big measured productivity premia for firms entering export markets.
Article
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)
Article
We quantify agglomeration spillovers by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among incumbent plants in "winning" counties that attracted a large manufacturing plant and "losing" counties that were the new plant's runner-up choice. Winning and losing counties have similar trends in TFP prior to the new plant opening. Five years after the opening, incumbent plants' TFP is 12 percent higher in winning counties. This productivity spillover is larger for plants sharing similar labor and technology pools with the new plant. Consistent with spatial equilibrium models, labor costs increase in winning counties, indicating that profits ultimately increase less than productivity. (c) 2010 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
Article
Why do firms cluster near one another? We test Marshall's theories of industrial agglomeration by examining which industries locate near one another, or coagglomerate. We construct pairwise coagglomeration indices for US manufacturing industries from the Economic Census. We then relate coagglomeration levels to the degree to which industry pairs share goods, labor, or ideas. To reduce reverse causality, where collocation drives input-output linkages or hiring patterns, we use data from UK industries and from US areas where the two industries are not collocated. All three of Marshall's theories of agglomeration are supported, with input-output linkages particularly important. (JEL L14, L60, O33, R23, R32)
Article
This paper summarizes and extends previous research that has shown evidence of a “curse of natural resources” – countries with great natural resource wealth tend nevertheless to grow more slowly than resource-poor countries. This result is not easily explained by other variables, or by alternative ways to measure resource abundance. This paper shows that there is little direct evidence that omitted geographical or climate variables explain the curse, or that there is a bias resulting from some other unobserved growth deterrent. Resource-abundant countries tended to be high-price economies and, perhaps as a consequence, these countries tended to miss-out on export-led growth.
Article
Most papers that employ Differences-in-Differences estimation (DD) use many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes but ignore that the resulting standard errors are inconsistent. To illustrate the severity of this issue, we randomly generate placebo laws in state-level data on female wages from the Current Population Survey. For each law, we use OLS to compute the DD estimate of its "effect" as well as the standard error of this estimate. These conventional DD standard errors severely understate the standard deviation of the estimators: we find an "effect" significant at the 5 percent level for up to 45 percent of the placebo interventions. We use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well existing methods help solve this problem. Econometric corrections that place a specific parametric form on the time-series process do not perform well. Bootstrap (taking into account the autocorrelation of the data) works well when the number of states is large enough. Two corrections based on asymptotic approximation of the variance-covariance matrix work well for moderate numbers of states and one correction that collapses the time series information into a "pre"-and "post"-period and explicitly takes into account the effective sample size works well even for small numbers of states.
Article
Provides treatment of the applications of mining engineering while reinforcing material with analyses of special topics as well as numerical examples and problems. Initial chapters are devoted to fundamentals, explaining the four stages of mining - prospecting, exploration, development, exploitation - and the unit operations of mining. The text continues with coverage of surface mining and underground mining.
Article
Using geological variation in oil abundance in the Southern US, I examine the long term effects of resource-based specialisation through economic channels. In 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production. From 1940-90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing. Oil abundant counties had higher population growth, higher per capita income and better infrastructure. © 2010 The Author(s). The Economic Journal © 2010 Royal Economic Society.
Article
This paper examines the effect of oil abundance on political violence. First, we revisit one of the main empirical findings of the civil conflict literature that oil abundance causes civil war. Using a unique panel dataset describing worldwide oil discoveries and extractions, we show that simply controlling for country fixed effects removes the statistical association between oil reserves and civil war in a sample of more than 100 countries over the period 1930-2003. Other macro-political violence measures, such as coup attempts and irregular leader transitions, are not affected by oil reserves either. Rather, we find that oil-rich nondemocratic countries have a larger defense burden. To further address the problems of endogeneity and measurement error, we exploit randomness in the success or failure of oil explorations. We find that oil discoveries do not increase the likelihood of violent challenges to the state in the sample of country-years in which at least one exploratory well is drilled, and oil discoveries increase military spending in the subsample of nondemocratic countries. Similar results are obtained on a larger sample which includes country-years without oil exploration while controlling for selection based on the likelihood of exploration using propensity score matching. We suggest a possible explanation for our findings based on the idea that oil-rich nondemocratic regimes effectively expend resources to deter potential challengers.
Article
Health expenditures as a share of GDP have more than tripled over the last half century. A common conjecture is that this is primarily a consequence of rising real per capita income, which more than doubled over the same period. We investigate this hypothesis empirically by instrumenting for local area income with time-series variation in global oil prices between 1970 and 1990 interacted with cross-sectional variation in the oil reserves across different areas of the Southern United States. This strategy enables us to capture both the partial equilibrium and the local general equilibrium effects of an increase in income on health expenditures. Our central estimate is an income elasticity of 0.7, with an elasticity of 1.1 as the upper end of the 95 percent confidence interval. Point estimates from alternative specifications fall on both sides of our central estimate, but are almost always less than 1. We also present evidence suggesting that there are unlikely to be substantial national or global general equilibrium effects of rising income on health spending, for example through induced innovation. Our overall reading of the evidence is that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health share of GDP.
Article
The World Bank's new series of Doing Business reports attempt to measure the relative ease of doing business in countries around the world. The output of this research is a set of rankings that enable each country to see how it looks relative to the others from the point of view of private sector businesses. This paper highlights a number of concerns about the Doing Business methodology, and presents a critique of the 'law and finance' view regarding the influence of legal system origins on countries' economic performance, which was highly influential in the first of the Doing Business reports. Selected data from the 2006 report are used to explain why Indonesia is having difficulty getting back to Soeharto-era rates of economic growth. The report's findings in relation to Indonesia are then interpreted within the framework of an analysis of the way the Soeharto 'franchise' operated.
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Analyses the effects on resource allocation, factoral income distribution and the real exchange rate of a boom in one part of the country's traded goods sector. In the simplest of the models considered, which assumed that only labour was mobile between sectors, de-industrialisation was shown to follow a fall in manufacturing output and employment, a worsening of the balance of trade in manufacturing and a fall in the real return to factors specific to the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, it was shown the boom gives rise to a real appreciation, i.e. a rise in the relative price of non-traded relative to traded goods. However, in later models, which allowed for intersectoral mobility of more than one factor, it was shown that some of these outcomes could be reversed.-from Authors
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In this paper, we examine the impact of the coal boom in the 1970s and the subsequent coal bust in the 1980s on local labour markets in Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. We address two main questions in our analysis. How were non-mining sectors affected by the shocks to the mining sector? How did these effects differ between sectors producing local goods and those producing traded goods? We find evidence of modest employment spillovers into sectors with locally traded goods but not into sectors with nationally traded goods. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.