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Stefan Morcov
http://stefanmorcov.com
IADIS Information Systems Conference (IS 2021)
3-5 March 2021
Full paper and bibliography here:
Morcov, S., Pintelon, L., & Kusters, R. J. (2021). A Framework for IT Project Complexity Management.
IADIS IS 2021 : 14th IADIS International Conference Information Systems (pp. 61-68)
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Projects become more and more challenging, while more and more rewarding
31% of projects are canceled
52% of projects cost 189% the original estimate
16.2% are on-time/on-budget
(Standish Group, 1995)
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IT projects are often complex
Projects derail, face significant challenges
Some projects are particularly large and complex
The cost may be huge
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Complex ~ complicated, difficult, fashionable
= difficult to understand, foresee and keep under control, even when given
reasonably complete information about its components.
Structural complexity: complicated.
Consisting of many varied interrelated parts
Dynamic complexity: ambiguity, uncertainty, propagation, chaos
◦nonlinearity, complex feedback loops, significant impact of small factors (Lorenz's
butterfly effect, Black Swan phenomena)
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1. Simple Managing ≈ no effort
2. Complicated
(≈ structural
complexity)
Managing ∝ effort
3. Complex
Managing ∝ effort times x
4. Really
complex
Managing ∝ exponential to
effort
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Complexity works.
Complexity works.
Complex projects create complex products,
for complex markets,
in complex organizations,
with complex processes.
They deliver value.
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A complexity
of complexities
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Complexity works.
Innovation occurs at the edge of chaos.
Systems must be taken outside equilibrium to innovate
Systems acquire complexity to evolve & survive
Opportunities
Antifragility
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Positive
complexity
Benefit > cost
Desirable, creates
direct value
Mitigation strategy:
create or enhance
Appropriate
complexity
Benefit ≈ cost
Not desirable, but
needed / too
expensive to
mitigate
Mitigation strategy:
accept
Negative
complexity
Benefit < cost
Not desirable
Mitigation strategy:
avoid,
reduce, eliminate
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#
Complexity Factor
Description and Points
1
2
3
4
1
Stability of the overall project context
Very
High
High
Moder
ate
Low
2
Number of distinct disciplines, methods,
or approaches involved in performing the
project
Low
Moder
ate
High
Very
high
3
Magnitude of legal, social, or
environmental implications from
performing the project
Low
Moder
ate
High
Very
high
4
Overall expected financial impact (positive
or negative) on the project's stakeholders
Low
Moder
ate
High
Very
high
5
Strategic importance of the project to the
organization or the organizations involved
Very
Low
Low
Moder
ate
High
6
Stakeholder cohesion regarding the
characteristics of the product of the
project
High
Moder
ate
Low
Very
low
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Number and variety of interfaces between
the project and other organizational
entities
Very
Low
Low
Moder
ate
High
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Time/cost
Team size
Team composition and
performance
Urgency/flexibility of
cost/time/scope
Problem/solution
clarity
Requirements volatility
and risk
Strategic/political
sensitivity/importance,
multiple stakeholders
Level of organizational
change
Level of commercial
change
Risk, external
constraints and
dependencies
Level of IT complexity
Average
Hass complexity scale - example
Prj 1
Prj 2
Prj 3
Prj 4
Prj 5
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Effects
Sources
Positive & Appropriate Negative
Internal
Reusability
Many varied inter
-
dependent
technologies
External
Large budget, political
priority.
New technologies.
Unclear objectives
–
scope agility
Large number and
variety of
stakeholders.
Unclear objectives
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Response
strategy
Complexity Effect
Positive
Appropriate
Negative
Create, enhance
X
Use (exploit) X
Accept / ignore
X X X
Simplify /
reduce X
Avoid /
eliminate X
Do not over-simplify
◦The law of requisite complexity.
◦Positive, appropriate, negative complexity
Manage a complex project as a program
A well-managed project is not a project without a mess, but a project
with a well-managed mess
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◦Configuration management
◦Change management
◦Dependency (DSM, DMM, MDM) &
traceability matrix (requirements,
stakeholders, changes) (Maurer 2017)
(Marle&Vidal 2016)
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Ambiguity, uncertainty, propagation, chaos
Nonlinearity, complex feedback loops and significant impact of small factors
Lorenz’s Butterfly Effect
Black Swan (Taleb 2007)
Vulnerability management = Resistance + Resilience
Anti-fragility (Taleb 2012)
Monitoring for change
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The framework aims to support PMs to recognize, understand,
analyze, and manage complexity more effectively
◦Processes and steps interact with each other and with other processes; they
overlap, are incremental and iterative.
◦A detailed inventory of tools and methods is in the detailed paper
Complexity management contributes to the success of IT projects,
reduces project risk, helps better project understanding, allows for
better prioritization and planning of resources, increases project
success rates
Implementation is contextual
& related to risk management
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