No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Climate Change Risk Assessment in Baghdad: Examining Population Vulnerability
Abstract
Studying climate change risks has acquired increased importance and attention around the world in recent years. Every city has its special points of strength and vulnerability that define its specific level of climate change risk. The assessment of this level offers multiple advantages by not just defining potentially impacted areas but also identifying the highest priority areas for the development of sustainable solutions. In Baghdad, surface urban heat island (SUHI) has been noted as one of the main climate change impacts, yet a review of the related literature suggested that few studies have previously assessed the risk level of SUHI, particularly in terms of population impacts in the Baghdad areas. Accordingly, this research aimed to classify the various Baghdad areas according to population exposure to SUHI risks, and to define the risk level as a result of the overlay and the intersection of two main factor layers, intensity of and vulnerability to climate change impact. The research results thus identified areas with the highest level of risk to populations, which thus represented the highest priority areas for any adaptation efforts. Conducting this assessment constitutes a basic step in defining sustainable future adaptation strategies, as well as identifying areas with lower levels of SUHI risk, where measures may be carefully taken to sustain and improve current environmental performance, allowing for a more long-term focus on environmental quality.
... The focus of the current research is directed towards Risafa because it represents an area with a high level of SUHI risk [58]. This result was based on the following aspects: -Risafa has a high SUHI value: previous studies about SUHI intensity [14][15][16] refer to Risafa as one of Baghdad municipalities with the highest Ts value. ...
... Accordingly, Risafa is at risk [58]. As it has a high value of and vulnerability to SUHI, so it is at risk and has the priority to have a climate change adaptation plan. ...
In the era of the devastating impacts of climate change, many cities around the world make strenuous
efforts to find suitable and sustainable adaptation strategies to address the climatic dangers. In the past
decades, Baghdad city witnessed an increase in the intensity of surface urban heat island (SUHI) as a
result of the change in land cover and population density. By reviewing the related literature, it was
found that many studies discussed SUHI intensity and causes, yet there is limited knowledge concerning
the adaptation to such a phenomenon. In general, urban green infrastructure (UGI) represents a vital sustainable
strategy that can achieve climate change ’adaptation and mitigation’ simultaneously.
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of UGI in reducing SUHI in
Baghdad city. Risafa municipality was selected as a case study, as it suffers from a high level of SUHI risk.
Using a computer climatic simulation program; ENVI-met, the temperature of different surfaces in the
study area was assessed, and two typical models were selected. Surface temperature (Ts) of different
points in these two models was measured according to the base case scenario and to three proposed scenarios
of UGI. The results show that UGI has an apparent role in declining Ts in both models. It was also
found that the cooling effects of injecting UGI scenarios in similar surfaces of the two models are convergent.
This confirms the UGI great effectiveness in reducing SUHI in Baghdad City. It is also found that the
effectiveness of UGI in cooling the existing surfaces depends on the original condition of the surfaces and
the intensity and types of the injected UGI assets.
Abstract—The outdoor thermal comfort is influenced by the perception and satisfaction of the pedestrians, especially in hot and arid climates. Accordingly, the researchers look for the appropriate methods to reduce the Urban Heat Island and thus to enhance the outdoor thermal comfort level of pedestrians. However, there is limited research conducted on the outdoor thermal comfort in hot and arid climate. This work is an investigation study conducted in an urban area (Haifa Street) in Baghdad city, characterized by an arid climate with very high temperatures in summer season reaching 50℃. This study focuses on investigating possible mitigation strategies to ensure how we could improve the thermal comfort at pedestrian level for an urban area with intricate Western design (high–rise buildings, a large spacing between the buildings, asymmetrical canyon geometry, and lack of vegetation). We created four different scenarios to assess the role of vegetation elements such as trees, grass, and different shading patterns. The evaluation was performed in the hottest day in summer. For each scenario, the mean radiant temperature, specific humidity, air temperature, and wind speed distributions have been analyzed using ENVI-met software. Thermal comfort is assessed using the PET thermal index (Physiological Equivalent Temperature) and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). The results reveal that the PET index can be reduced to 10.4 ℃, the temperature can be decreased of about 2.4℃ and PMV to 3. The study shows how the urban factors such as the aspect ratio, vegetation cover, shadings, and geometry of the canyon are crucial elements that urban planners and municipalities have to take into account, especially for new urban developments.
Index Terms—Outdoor thermal comfort, Pedestrians, ENVI-met, PET, PMV, Urban Heat Island.
This study investigates the impact of urban morphology and geometry on microclimate and outdoor thermal comfort in hot-arid climate. It is based on a comparison of the environmental conditions of urban street canyons in traditional and modern neighborhoods representing the old and new fabrics of the city of Aleppo, Syria. The method of investigation adopts two approaches: field measurements and urban microclimate simulation. In the first part, the assessment of outdoor thermal comfort was conducted by calculating the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) for selected locations based on field measurements and records for selected days in summer of 2012. In the second part, the outdoor thermal conditions were assessed based on the data derived from microclimate simulations for the same neighborhoods using ENVI-met numerical models. In general, the outcome of the study reveals that the thermal conditions in old Aleppo canyons were more comfortable than those found in the new Aleppo canyons, similar results were obtained from simulations. Also, the study shows that the street urban canyons with high aspect ratio (H/W) and low sky view factor (SVF) in old Aleppo are more capable of mitigating the heat stress in the daytime, which might be sufficient in most cases, but not with harsh weather conditions. In conclusion, the study provides evidence that the microclimate and outdoor thermal conditions in Aleppo city are greatly affected by different urban forms, and shows that the compact urban form is more thermally comfortable, hence more preferable, than dispersed form.
In this study, trends of the seasonal and annual maximum (T-max), minimum (T-min), and mean (T) air temperatures, as well as rainfall amounts (R-a) time series were investigated for eleven stations in Iraq for the period 1972-2011 (40 years). Four statistical tests including homogeneity, Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The results revealed that annual mean of T-max, T-min, and T time series showed statistically significant increasing trends over 81.8, 100, and 100% of the stations at the 0.001 level and they experienced an increase of 0.50, 0.67, and 0.58 degrees C/decade, respectively; while the annual rainfall has shown decreasing trends at 90.9% of the stations and it experienced a decrease of -20.50 mm/decade. Seasonally, the highest increase of T-max, T-min, and T values have been found over the extreme south of the country during summer at the rates of 1.47, 1.06, and 1.16 degrees C/decade, respectively, while the highest decrease of R-a values has been found in the northern part of the country during winter at the rate of -36.35 mm/decade.
Many climate change adaptation efforts aim to address the implications of potential changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather and climate events that affect the risk of extreme impacts on human society. That risk is determined not only by the climate and weather events (the hazards) but also by the exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. Therefore, effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and practices also depend on a rigorous understanding of the dimensions of exposure and vulnerability, as well as a proper assessment of changes in those dimensions. This chapter aims to provide that understanding and assessment, by further detailing the determinants of risk as presented in Chapter 1.
The first sections of this chapter elucidate the concepts that are needed to define and understand risk, and show that risk originates from a combination of social processes and their interaction with the environment (Sections 2.2 and 2.3), and highlight the role of coping and adaptive capacities (Section 2.4). The following section (2.5) describes the different dimensions of vulnerability and exposure as well as trends therein. Given that exposure and vulnerability are highly context-specific, this section is by definition limited to a general overview (a more quantitative perspective on trends is provided in Chapter 4). A methodological discussion (Section 2.6) of approaches to identify and assess risk provides indications of how the dimensions of exposure and vulnerability can be explored in specific contexts, such as adaptation planning, and the central role of risk perception and risk communication. The chapter concludes with a cross-cutting discussion of risk accumulation and the nature of disasters.
High temperature in the city centers than its' surroundings known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, which is causing discomfort to the urban dwellers in the summer time is gaining much attention around the world because the world is getting urbanized as it advances in technology. Alterations of surface area, improper urban planning, air pollution, etc. are causing this increasingly growing phenomenon and it is accountable for human discomfort, human casualties and decline of climate. In this paper, an attempt has been taken to review various measures to encounter UHI effect and the processes by which these strategies work is described with diagrams. Using high albedo materials and pavements, green vegetation and green roofs, urban planning, pervious pavements, shade trees and existence of water bodies in city areas are the potential UHI mitigation strategies on which discussion is done in this paper with their limitations. Green vegetation seems to be the most effective measure and other strategies can play a major role under proper condition.
Distinguishes the Urban Canopy Layer (UCL) from the ground to roof level, from the Urban Boundary Layer (UBL) which extends to the height where urban influences are no longer perceptible. Methods to establish the energy balance include micrometeorological approaches and numerical models. Data are presented under the heading of radiation budget, anthropogenic heat release, subsurface (storage) heat flux, turbulent heat transfer, advection, and urban-rural energy balance differences. -K.Clayton
This paper presents a study based on the relationship between Urban Heat Islands (UHI) and population size (p) by considering the Population Density (PD) and the urban form parameters of different neighbourhoods in the city of Bogotá, Colombia. The aim is to understand the influence of the urban form, created by population concentration differences in the temperature of the city. For this purpose, every month throughout one year, air temperature data (obtained from nine different urban meteorological stations) were sampled and statistically treated to which population density could be respectively associated. The rural data were compared to the urban data to extract temperature differences (ΔTu-r). Moreover, different variables of the land cover and urban morphology were extracted and analysed in each neighbourhood around the stations. Among the meteorological stations, there was a significant and highly positive relationship among population density and thermal differences. In the same way, when finding which parameters of the urban form have a better relationship with PD and ΔTu-r, the Sky View Factor (SVF) and the Pervious Surface Fraction (PSF%) are highlighted. The results show that density above 14,500 inhabitants/km² may cause air temperature differences higher than 1 °C, greater obstruction of the sky (SVF < 0.45) and a larger decrease in green areas and vegetation cover (PSF% <30). This paper concludes that urban form, expressed by land cover and urban morphology changes, caused by population density, has a great effect on temperature differences within the city of Bogotá.
This study adopts remote sensing techniques to compare the Surface urban Heat Island (SUHI) in Baghdad and London as they represent different climatic conditions, natural environments and levels of urban development. It tests the reported correlation of land surface temperature (LST) with land cover in the literature under different conditions and, based on the findings, suggests engineering mitigation strategies for each city. The land surface was characterized using supervised classification and spectral indices, using the Landsat 8 optical bands (2–7), and the LST was retrieved from Landsat’s thermal band 10 after emissivity calibration. Two Landsat 8 satellite images were used, acquired in July 2013 when maximum surface temperature would be expected in both these capital cities. Image processing included radiometric calibration and atmospheric correction and various land surface indices were then calculated. The independent validation of land cover types was performed using higher spatial resolution optical data, and LST patterns were validated using ASTER thermal images. Land cover types or indices and land surface temperature display high correlations, with most having a positive relationship with LST, but vegetation has a negative relationship. The hottest surface type also differs for the two cities. Consequently, covering the soil in Baghdad with new construction, for example, reduces the surface temperature and hence urban heat island effect, while the same action in London increases it. Thus, engineering solutions to urban heat island issues need to take local factors into account.
Warming associated with urban development will be exacerbated in future years by temperature increases due to climate change. The strategic implementation of urban green infrastructure (UGI) e.g. street trees, parks, green roofs and facades can help achieve temperature reductions in urban areas while delivering diverse additional benefits such as pollution reduction and biodiversity habitat. Although the greatest thermal benefits of UGI are achieved in climates with hot, dry summers, there is comparatively little information available for land managers to determine an appropriate strategy for UGI implementation under these climatic conditions. We present a framework for prioritisation and selection of UGI for cooling. The framework is supported by a review of the scientific literature examining the relationships between urban geometry, UGI and temperature mitigation which we used to develop guidelines for UGI implementation that maximises urban surface temperature cooling. We focus particularly on quantifying the cooling benefits of four types of UGI: green open spaces (primarily public parks), shade trees, green roofs, and vertical greening systems (green walls and facades) and demonstrate how the framework can be applied using a case study from Melbourne, Australia.
The realization that human beings need to be concerned about the only ‘life-support system’ that the Earth and its environment provides stems perhaps in part from the fact that, until fairly recently, the evolution of humankind was largely dependent on the quality of the environment and the resources it provides in terms of water, food, and favourable health conditions. These are as vital as ever, despite current levels of technology and apparent resilience in the face of often degraded environments in many parts of the world. Today, the conditions for human sustainability (i.e. water quality and quantity, food security, and health) are potentially under threat as a result of numerous human-induced factors; among these, climate change is certainly one of the more durable aspects of anthropogenic disruptions to natural resources. This article will therefore focus on the possible evolution of climate in the course of the twenty-first century and on a number of key climate impacts that may determine the future course of human societies, as well as issues that may confront them such as rivalries over natural resources and possible environmentally driven conflicts and migrations.
Measured data and computer simulations have demonstrated the impact of roof albedo in reducing cooling energy use in buildings. Savings are a function of both climate and the amount of roof insulation. The cooling energy savings for reflective roofs are highest in hot climates. A reflective roof may also lead to higher heating energy use. Reflective coatings are also used in commercial buildings to protect the roofing membrane, and hence, maintain and prolong the useful life of the roof. Reflectivity of coatings changes with weathering and aging which in turn could have an effect on building cooling-energy savings. For that reason, reflective roof coatings are not primarily marketed for their energy savings potential. To monitor the field performance of reflective coatings, the authors initiated a demonstration project where three commercial buildings in California were painted with light-colored roof coatings. The buildings are two medical care centers and one drug store. At all sites, the roof reflectance, both fresh and aged, and cooling energy use were monitored. In addition, they measured temperature throughout the roof systems and inside the conditioned space. In the monitored buildings, increasing the roof reflectance from an initial value of about 20% to 60%, dropped the roof temperature on hot summer afternoons by about 45 F. Summertime standard-weekday average daily air-conditioning savings were 18% (198 kWh) in the first medical office building, 13% (86 kWh) in the second medical office building, and 2% (13 kWh) in the drug store. The overall u-value of the roofs had dictated the impact of roof reflectance.
The Kyoto Protocol, which became effective in February 2005, has been promoting a series of countermeasures against global warming on an international scale under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As a result of overwhelming impacts of the heat wave in Europe in 2003 and Hurricane Katrina that devastated the city of New Orleans in August 2005, there has been a growing concern over widespread climatic anomalies. This in turn has triggered increased interest in adaptation as a long-term countermeasure against the effects of global warming. In particular, develop-ing countries, including small islands in tropical and subtropical zones, are vulnerable to climate change and variability, though they emit only small amounts of greenhouse gases. Therefore, adaptation is widely recognized as a primary countermeasure against global warming in these countries. In this paper, we attempt to draw a picture of the current understanding of the role and scope of adaptation by examin-ing its purposes, nature and tools, as well as gaps in implementation and the social capacity for adapta-tion.
Examining the Ecocity:-From Definition to Implementation
- J Berthold
- M H Wetterwik
J. Berthold and M. H. Wetterwik, Examining the Ecocity:-From Definition to Implementation,
Sweden.: Bachelor of Science Thesis, 2013.
The Carbon Cycle, USA: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
- E W Sulzman
E. W. Sulzman, The Carbon Cycle, USA: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2000.
Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries
UNFCCC, "Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries,"
Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC), Bonn, Germany., 2007.
Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures
UNDP, Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and
Measures, Cambridge, UK: The Press Syndicate of The University of Cambridge, 2004.
Assessing of Climate Change on Iraq using Meteonorm Weather Generator
- H I Abd Alkareem
H. I. Abd AlKareem, "Assessing of Climate Change on Iraq using Meteonorm Weather Generator,"
IOSR Journal of Applied Physics (IOSR-JAP), vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 55-61, 2016.
4th International Conference on Engineering Sciences (ICES 2020)
IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering
1067 (2021) 012058
doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1067/1/012058
Study of Urban Heat Island Phenomena for Baghdad City using Landsat-7
- A M Al-Lami
A. M. Al-Lami, "Study of Urban Heat Island Phenomena for Baghdad City using Landsat-7,"
Diyala Journal for Pure Science, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 82-98, April 2015.
Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies, USA: EPA Publication available at (www.epa.gov
EPA, Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies, USA: EPA Publication available
at (www.epa.gov, 2013.
The state of the environment in Iraq
- Iraqi Environmental Ministry
Iraqi Environmental Ministry, "'The state of the environment in Iraq 2017," Iraqi Environmental
Ministry, Baghdad, 2017.
Baghdad Comprehensive Development Plan 2030, fourth stage, part 1
- Alami Khatib
Khatib and Alami, "Baghdad Comprehensive Development Plan 2030, fourth stage, part 1,"
Baghdad Municipality, 2014.
Towards Optimal Design Strategies in Hot-Arid Climate, A Comparative Study of Environmental and Socio-Cultural Performance of The Traditional and Modern Housing in
- N Salman
N. Salman, Towards Optimal Design Strategies in Hot-Arid Climate, A Comparative Study of
Environmental and Socio-Cultural Performance of The Traditional and Modern Housing in
Baghdad, IRAQ, Cardiff, Wales: Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, 2016.
- S E D M El-Ojaly
S. E. D. M. El-Ojaly, "Spatial Structure and Its Effect on the Thermal Variation in Benghazi 1984-2012," Global Libyan Journal, vol. 4, 2015.
Assessment of surface urban heat island intensity and its causes in the city of Baghdad
- M F Abdulateef
- H A S Al-Alwan
M. F. Abdulateef and H. A. S. Al-Alwan, "Assessment of surface urban heat island intensity and
its causes in the city of Baghdad," in IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering,
Baghdad, 2020.
Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation
- N Mimura
- H Ando
- S Emori
- T Ochiai
- K Hitoshi
- M Tanaka
- K Nakata
- T Hasegawa
- Y Hijioka
- K.-I Fujita
N. Mimura, H. Ando, S. Emori, T. Ochiai, K. Hitoshi, M. Tanaka, K. Nakata, T. Hasegawa, Y.
Hijioka and K.-i. Fujita, "Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation," The Committee on
Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation, Japan, 2010.
Review of Climate Change Adaptation Methods and Tools
- L Schipper
- W Liu
- D Krawanchid
- S Chanthy
L. Schipper, W. Liu, D. Krawanchid and S. Chanthy, Review of Climate Change Adaptation
Methods and Tools, MRC Technical Paper No.34, Vientiane: Mekong River Commission, ISSN:
1683-1489, 2010.
The Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources and Program, Watershed Academy Web
EPA, The Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources and Program, Watershed Academy Web
, 2009.
Urban heat islands: hotter cities
- J A Voogt
J. A. Voogt, "Urban heat islands: hotter cities," America Institute of Biological Sciences..
Comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030 : the basic report for the first phase
- Alami Khatib
Khatib and Alami, "Comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030 : the basic
report for the first phase, part 1," Baghdad Municipality, Baghdad, 2008a.