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Demographic challenges in the Mediterranean
... Positive developments in health and socioeconomic progress have improved the population's life expectancy, increasing the aging tendency [114]. However, in depopulated areas, the deficit of births over deaths translates to a decline in the number of children. ...
... Population decline significantly impacts economic growth by reducing the labor force, particularly the working-age population, a critical factor directly influencing economic productivity [114,120]. A deteriorating labor force may lead to a long-lasting shortage of skilled workers, posing challenges for many local businesses [121]. ...
... Plus, it contributes to the exodus of current residents, intensifying the spiral of decline associated with falling fertility rates and the aging of the remaining population [111,121]. In an aging society, the growing number of elderly individuals with disabilities, with little or no support from relatives, results in an increasing demand for health services [114]. This situation is particularly challenging in rural areas where hospitals and other care facilities cease operations, and urban health infrastructure becomes inaccessible due to long distances. ...
Human-induced climate change has profound effects on extreme events, particularly those linked to global warming, such as heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. These events disrupt ecosystems, emphasizing the imperative to understand the interactions among them to gauge the risks faced by vulnerable communities. Vulnerability levels vary primarily based on a community's resources. Rural areas, especially in the Mediterranean region of Europe, are experiencing acute depopulation, creating a complex situation affecting various aspects of society, from economic declines to cultural heritage loss. Population decline in rural regions weakens resources, leading to the abandonment of built environments, fostering desertification, and elevating the risk of wildfires. Communities undergoing this deterioration process become exceptionally vulnerable, especially when dealing with and recovering from extreme natural phenomena. This review offers insights into the dynamics of these hazards and the predominant challenges in rural areas. By focusing on a topic that has received limited attention, the aim is to inform future research initiatives, ultimately improving risk assessment and mitigation strategies for these vulnerable communities.
... Water scarcity is mainly concentrated on the southern shores of the Mediterranean, but long periods of drought have been observed in the northern regions. Water scarcity has also been exacerbated by the overexploitation of available water resources, the reduction of reservoir capacity due to sediment accumulation in reservoirs, and the deterioration of surface and groundwater quality due to pollution (Kibaroğlu 2017). At the same time, the preservation of the ecosystem is another issue that has to be considered (Jorda-Capdevila et al. 2019). ...
... The impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area have been observed, analyzed, and commented on by several researchers (Cramer et al. 2018;Tramblay et al. 2020;Mimikou and Baltas 2013;Baltas and Mimikou 2005;Mimikou et al. 1999). In general, climate change is expected to result in less water being available for use in agriculture, energy production, and urban and industrial use, while riparian ecosystems will also suffer (Kibaroğlu 2017;Rocha et al. 2020). Reduced water supplies will affect major domains like agricultural production (Fraga et al. 2021;Pozo et al. 2019;Abd-Elmabod et al. 2020) and public health (Cramer et al. 2018;Linares et al. 2020). ...
In recent years, the sharp increase in demand for fresh water and climate change, especially in the Mediterranean region, have increased the need for effective tools that can provide management alternatives enabling the more efficient use of available water resources. Hydrologic models which simulate the rainfall–runoff process are crucial for the formulation of such management tools and can be used to evaluate the performance of systems and, therefore, to formulate alternative management strategies that can lead to more efficient performance. In this paper, an attempt is made to form a hydrologic model with the aim of using it as a basis for the formulation of management tools for the Aliakmon River in Greece. This model could be useful for formulating sustainable production and consumption patterns related to the use of Aliakmon River water. The model is built in HEC–HMS using data that are freely available online. The results indicate that the model shows excellent performance in terms of simulating the changes that occur in the flow regime of the studied river, and can therefore can be used as a basis for the formulation of management tools for the reservoirs present on the river, energy production, water supply, as well as flood forecasting.
... However, the score for the period 2000-2020 suggests that we are now approaching a value dangerously near the threshold defined by the R Agri Cer before experiencing substantial diversity loss (Fig. 4b). The projected increase of 90 million inhabitants in the Mediterranean region over the next 30 years (2020-2050), bringing the total population to 611 million, with twothirds concentrated on the southern and eastern seaboards, is expected to impose substantial stress on the environment as it struggles to provide for this growing population (Ambrosetti, 2020). This mounting pressure on vegetation will inevitably intensify the already significant loss of plant diversity (Fig. 4b). ...
The Mediterranean Basin is an environmental change hotspot that, relative to other regions of the world, is forecasted to experience a significant shift in biodiversity due to multiple factors such as climate change and agricultural intensification. Within this framework, the Eastern Mediterranean region is projected to face a temperature rise of ~3.5–7 ◦C by 2070–2099 which will result in severe heat stress and freshwater scarcity, along with increased human impacts due to pronounced demographic growth. To assess the impact of environmental and human pressures on plant diversity, we studied the evolution of this major constituent of biodiversity in the Eastern Mediterranean over 8000 years. Our analysis demonstrates that plant diversity has been impacted by long-term (e.g. multimillennial scale) changes in temperature, precipitation and anthropogenic activities. We identified a tipping point for each of these drivers, showing that Eastern Mediterranean plant diversity has already exceeded its tipping point for precipitation (threshold: 376 ± 17 mm for winter), while it has already attained its critical threshold for temperature (threshold: 1.33 ± 0.5 ◦C) and anthropogenic activities (threshold: -1.05 ± 0.4 - low to medium pressures). This suggests that the region’s vegetation will probably progressively give way to species that are better suited and more resilient to the changing environmental conditions.
... This is due to the ageing of the population, where more people are surviving into old age, increasing the amount of the elderly in the population. Countries on the Southern and Eastern shores retain higher dependency ratios than countries on the Northern Shore (Ambrosetti, 2020), particularly in the Near East, which is mainly due to a higher birth rate and thus a higher presence of children in the population. Two countries stand out due to their ratio trajectories. ...
It is vital to examine the population composition, i.e. how the population being studied is structured. In demography, to understand the phenomena studied (firstly, births and deaths), it is common practice to examine the number of women in relation to the number of men and to distinguish the distribution of individuals by age. The most common representation of this gender and age composition is the “age pyramid”. It is important to know the age and gender composition, as this largely determines a population's demographic dynamics. Elements relating to gender and age composition will enable better understanding of the dynamics outlined in the following chapters. In this chapter therefore, we will present the composition of the Mediterranean population from the perspective of sex ratios on the one hand, and the age distribution of populations on the other. We will also consider the implications of differences between countries at the sub-national level.
... According to existing demographic projections, this number can reach as high as 611 million within next three decades. By 2025, one-third of the Mediterranean population will live on the northern shore and two-thirds on the southern and eastern shores [7]. ...
The exploitation of altimetric datasets from past and current satellite missions is crucial to both oceanographic and geodetic applications. For oceanographic studies, they allow the determination of sea level anomalies as deviations from a static mean sea level. This chapter deals with numerical experiments for the statistical analysis of Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) variations in the Mediterranean. SLA empirical covariance functions were calculated to represent the statistical characteristics of the sea variation for the period between 2002 and 2016. The variation of monthly SLA time series was investigated, and a correlation analysis was performed in terms of epoch-based pattern re-occurrence. To identify possible correlations with global and regional climatic phenomena that influence the ocean state, three indexes have been investigated, namely the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (NOI), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Finally, Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were applied to all SLA time series and for each satellite mission to extract the individual dominant modes of the data variability. After the analysis, the SLA field is separated into spatial structures (EOF modes) and their corresponding amplitudes in time, the Principle Components (PCs).
... Thus, the shortage of water is mainly focused on the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. However, the severe droughts experienced between 1990 and 2005 have marked the vulnerability of the water supply even in the industrialized northern Mediterranean countries (Burak & Margat, 2016;Kibaroğlu, 2017). ...
The existed hydrological models that were used to describe the hydrological processes varied between the pure mathematics analysis and equations to relations that describe the process empirically based on the physics of the watershed. An oscillation exists between the model’s performance and robustness but it was approved that such a hydrological model is chosen according to the study objective and perspectives. The models that are based on purely physical or conceptual, face the problem of calibrating the large number of parameters that contain. Furthermore, the major watershed measurement is scarce, especially in developing countries. To further understand and excavate this concept, we engaged in this study and went deeper into the hydrological models. We choose different models from both conceptual and Data-driven to analyze. The study area was selected in order to verify the applicability of the NARX-NN model in small drainage areas, containing the conditions of the Semi-urbanism and the low intensity of rainfall, and then it will be compared to the conceptual HEC-HMS model. We investigate the NARX-NN model to simulate the basin response to real storm events of a small urban watershed. The NARX-NN steps are described in detail, from data representation and insertion, and then calibration and testing. To reach the target hydrograph by the conceptual HEC-HMS, we must pass through several stages. Conceptually, the hole R-R process is a combination of several sub-processes; we need to treat each one separately. We proposed a new method to carry out the best parameters of calibration using the weighted average function of HEC-HMS models and that gave the best performance. The steps involved in each model to reaching the hydrograph are dramatically different; the significance is to present an analytical comparison step by step of each model. The two models are extremely different in terms of data requirements. The conceptual and black box models are compared statistically and graphically. The statistical assessment shows that during calibration, the two models are closely the same in terms of NSE and MAE with a slight superiority of NARX-NN. Except for the PEP benchmark which indicates the supremacy of the NARX-NN over HEC-HMS in mapping the peak of the hydrograph, which is agreed as one of the most important elements in the short storm events. In the testing phase, statistical parameters indicate that the NARX-NN outperforms modeling the basin response
The findings drawn from the results demonstrate the high capability of the NARX-NN model to capture the R-R process, although the short time-series data is used in the training and testing phases. Moreover, the result of the testing is more accurate than that of the training phase, which demonstrates the strength of the generalization feature of NARX-NN. It has more strength to produce the shape bending of the hydrograph; in contrast, the rising and falling limb in the HEC-HMS model presents straight curvature. Consequently, the NARX-NN model is better to highlight the curvatures resulting from the local peaks of rainfall.
... The Mediterranean region is also a space of historical internal circulation, a reminder of the necessity of addressing demographic challenges, not only at the national level, but also at the level of broader regional areas (Carella & Parant, 2014). In this respect, because of the diversity of its past and current migration background, and of varying development levels of the surrounding countries, the Mediterranean Basin is a prime area in which to grasp -in both a specific and a global way -the demographic responses to political, economic, health, and (soon) ecological crises. ...
The Mediterranean region features diverse and overlapping socioeconomic and demographic dynamics, with collateral effects that have become increasingly more significant and difficult to solve. The region’s demographic evolution has been uneven. Indeed, while natural population increase in the countries of the northern shore has been weak for several decades (when it did not turn negative, as it did in Italy), the southern and eastern shores continue to benefit from a still considerable natural surplus despite a sharp decline in fertility (Angeli & Salvini, 2018; Bellis, Carella, Léger, Parant, 2021a). Furthermore, the contrasting demographic regimes along the northern (European), eastern (Asian) and southern (African) shores have resulted in a major change in the distribution of the populations whose composition by age group is also very different (Parant & Léger, 2020). In 2020, the countries of the African shore represent the most populated area of the Mediterranean Basin (39% vs. 38% for the countries of the European shore), while in 1950 the northern shore grouped two-thirds of the total population. Moreover, 47% of individuals on the southern shore and 42% of those residing on the eastern shore are now under 25 years old; while the under 25s represent just over a quarter of the population (26%) on the northern shore (Bellis, Carella, Léger, Parant, 2021b). The population of the northern shore is inexorably aging, whereas those of the southern and eastern shores have remained young despite the increase in life expectancy.
... The varying levels of development, the geographical specificities, and the plurality of settlement configurations across these countries strengthen this diversity. Consequently, the demographic trends also vary significantly (Carella & Parant, 2014). ...
Migration is an obvious response to political, economic, socio-demographic, and ecological crises. In recent decades, several crises have occurred in the Mediterranean region; consequently, migration has intensified, the geography of flows has been altered, and the roles of some countries within the Mediterranean migration system have rapidly changed. This paper aims to delineate an overview of migration flows in this region over the last 20 years, focusing on the new migration flows related to humanitarian crises. In doing so, the present study also examines similarities and differences between past and current migration factors that shape the decisions of individuals. Migration flows are closely linked to the needs and fears of European societies. Following this logic, and by analysing challenges related to demographic and geopolitical dimensions in the future
scenario, this study discusses the necessity of new policy responses.
... In addition, the demographic projections indicate a lessthan-expected but still clear increase in the population of the Mediterranean area with a total population of 500 million inhabitants in 2010 that is expected to reach 563 million inhabitants by 2025 (Carella and Parant 2014). This increase will primarily concern urban and coastal areas, and the population of rural areas will remain stable. ...
The soils of the Mediterranean Basin are the products of soil processes that have been governed by a unique convergence of highly differentiated natural and anthropogenic drivers. These soils are expected to be dramatically affected by future climate and societal changes. These changes imply that suitable adaptive management strategies for these resources cannot simply be transposed from experiments that are performed in other regions of the world. Following a framework that considers the chain of “drivers-soil process-soil capital-ecosystem services/disservices,” the paper review the research undertaken in the Mediterranean area on three types of Mediterranean soil degradation than can be expected under global change: (i) soil losses due to the increase of drought and torrential rainfall; (ii) soil salinization due the increase of droughts, irrigation, and sea level; and (iii) soil carbon stock depletion with the increase of temperature and droughts. The possible strategies for mitigating each of these degradations have been largely addressed and are still studied in current research projects. They should include changes in agricultural practices, soil water management, and vegetal material. As a pre-requisite for the site-specific adaptations of such mitigation strategies within viable Mediterranean agrosystems, it is highlighted that methodological advances are necessary in integrated assessment of agricultural systems and in finer resolution soil mapping.
Digitalization allows efficient management of water resources in a participatory manner through the deployment of ICT tools (Information and Communication Technologies) which enables data acquisition from multiple sources. Integration of smart applications also facilitate easier assessment of complex water governance systems, thereby improve decision-making processes. WATERMED4.0 platform stemmed from the same idea, targeting to boost current agricultural practices by compiling and processing data on agricultural water demand, water resources availability, agricultural production as well as water governance. The integrated decision support system offered by WATERMED4.0 assists end-users to find solutions according to their needs and exploit natural resources in a much sustainable, efficient and competitive manner. WATERMED4.0 platform tested the effectiveness of using smart agricultural tools for easy monitoring and follow-ups in cultivated areas, fine tuning already available solutions by collecting data from the field (e.g. crops’ water requirements), and investigating the applicability of different technological and technical solutions for different challenges (e.g. hydroponics, agrivoltaic systems, water reuse). Improvements were observed in all pilot studies regarding input optimization without compromising product yields. With the fertigation plans provided by the platform, water savings up to 30% were recorded as well as ~ 10% decline were observed in fertilizer needs. In parallel, incorporation of the governance perspective into the platform by launching a specific governance tool promoted an interpretative and participatory approach. The governance tool could be a key and very low-cost solution for improving adaptive management and governance of water resources worldwide, bringing forward adoption of fit-for-purpose policies and strategies. Concisely, multi-stakeholder and multi-purpose platforms provide the flexibility to adjust solutions to different settings, and digital tools facilitate this process through easy, real-time and continuous monitoring and data collection. Still, stakeholder participation from the outset is as vital to facilitate trust building among actors via information and knowledge exchange.
Urban sprawl and tourism urbanization, as prevailing trends in the Mediterranean coast, result in particular forms of ‘linear’ urban development, stretching with deployment of low-density urban fabric along extended areas near the shoreline. The evolving ‘linear city model’ accounts for: land and marine environmental degradation; higher vulnerability to climate change; and unsustainable future pathways of coastal urban constellations. Assessment of this model of urban development in coastal zones can reveal distinct spatial and functional irregularities and properly guide policy remediation action. This work elaborates on the exploration and identification of the “linear city” concept in the Mediterranean by use of a methodological approach that integrates: high-resolution multi-temporal data for built-up areas and their GIS-enabled elaboration; spatial metrics for quantifying morphological as well as spatial peculiarities and qualities of this linear city type; Principal Component and Cluster Analysis, unveiling built environment typologies; and correlation analysis, illuminating functionality weaknesses by linking these typologies with urban variables, e.g. population density, accessibility to transport and urban facilities. Implementation of this approach in a Greek example – Corinthian Bay, Northern Peloponnese – witnesses the discrete spatial typologies and highlights the fragmented and rather unsustainable, in spatial and functional terms, linear urban pattern of this coastal urban area.
Population aging is becoming an inevitable phenomenon in Albanian post-socialist society, posing multi-faceted challenges to its individuals, families and society as a whole. Since 1991, the Albanian population has been exposed to intensive demographic changes caused by unintended aspects of socio-economic transition from a planned socialist economy to a market-oriented capitalist one (Hoff, 2008). Ongoing processes of re-organization of social institutions increased its socio-economic insecurity leading to the application of various coping mechanisms. While adjusting themselves to other aspects of life, people changed their decisions of having children and leaving the country (Hoff, 2008). On the other hand, replacement of former traditional extended family forms with diverse living arrangements and family structures has been the outcome of the combination of three factors: falling fertility, increasing life expectancy and increasing migration (INSTAT, 2014).
However, family remains the basic social unit that provides support, care and protection for its old members even though its capacities are diminishing. Family Life Cycle Theory views family development as a series of stages where family members deal with various developmental tasks and play different roles as they move from one stage to another.
This paper examines population aging in Albanian post-socialist society (after 1990). Based on Family Life Cycle Theory and Family Development Theory, it reviews literature and uses secondary data to discuss its implications for elderly care and family life. It concludes that population aging requires better understanding of this process in order to facilitate a series of family adaptations to respond to the changing needs of its elderly members.
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