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On the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic and social development: evidence from Henan Province, China

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Fangzhao Deng
Fangzhao Deng
Fangzhao Deng
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Hujun Li
Hujun Li
Hujun Li
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Meng Yang
Meng Yang
Meng Yang
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Wenjie Zhao
Wenjie Zhao
Wenjie Zhao
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The sustainable development of China’s economy and society has been restricted by energy and environmental issues. With the implementation of the Rise of Central China strategy, Henan, a populous province in China, is facing the threat of an energy shortage as its economy grows steadily and the urbanization process accelerates. Using panel data of 18 cities in Henan Province for the period of 2006–2018, this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic and social development variables based on the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and threshold regression method. The empirical results indicate that economic and social development are significantly positively correlated with total electricity consumption, although there is regional heterogeneity in this relationship. Moreover, there is evidence for a nonlinear relationship between economic and social development and urban energy consumption. These conclusions not only promote the healthy and sustainable economic development of Henan Province but also provide a reference for other provinces and cities that are experiencing rapid development in China.
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
On the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption
and economic and social development: evidence from Henan
Province, China
Fangzhao Deng
1
&Hujun Li
1
&Meng Yang
1
&Wenjie Zhao
1
&Zhiqiang Gai
2
&Yunxia Guo
2
&Jingwen Huang
2
&
Yu Hao
2,3,4,5,6
&Haitao Wu
2,3,7
Received: 6 October 2020 /Accepted: 18 January 2021
#The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature 2021
Abstract
The sustainable development of China’s economy and society has been restricted by energy and environmental issues. With the
implementation of the Rise of Central China strategy, Henan, a populous province in China, is facing the threat of an energy
shortage as its economy grows steadily and the urbanization process accelerates. Using panel data of 18 cities in Henan Province
for the period of 2006–2018, this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic and social
development variables based on the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology
(STIRPAT) model and threshold regression method. The empirical results indicate that economic and social development are
significantly positively correlated with total electricity consumption, although there is regional heterogeneity in this relationship.
Moreover, there is evidence for a nonlinear relationship between economic and social development and urban energy consump-
tion. These conclusions not only promote the healthy and sustainable economic development of Henan Province but also provide
a reference for other provinces and cities that are experiencing rapid development in China.
Keywords Henan Province .STIRPAT model .Threshold regression .Nonlinear relationship
Introduction
On 17 June 2020, BP p.l.c. released the 69th edition of the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy. The review shows that
the world is embarking on a more sustainable road, but at the
same time, energy shortages, rising energy prices, energy se-
curity, and other energy issues have become increasingly
prominent, hindering the continuous development of coun-
tries (BP 2020). As a basic material for human survival and
social production activities, energy resources have always
been a vital support for economic and social development
(Kabir et al. 2018;Wuetal.2020). How to correctly under-
stand and handle the relationship between energy and eco-
nomic and social development has been an important topic
in energy economics research (Aqeel and Butt 2001;Azlina
and Mustapha 2012;Hongetal.2019).
In the past 40 years, since Kraft J. and Kraft A. pioneered
the analysis of the relationship between energy consumption
and economic growth in the USA in 1978, scholars from var-
ious countries have done much empirical work in this field
(Glasure and Lee 1998;Asafu-Adjaye2000; Belke et al.
2011). Early studies focused on the relationship between en-
ergy consumption and GDP. For example, Soytas and Sari
(2003) studied the causal relationship between energy con-
sumption and GDP in 16 countries. The results revealed that
in Turkey, France, Germany, and Japan, the relationship be-
tween energy consumption and GDP was that energy con-
sumption promoted economic growth, while in Italy and
South Korea, the causal relationship was the opposite, and in
Argentina, a two-way causal relationship was manifested.
Subsequently, scholars gradually added a series of other eco-
nomic variables to the empirical study and found that energy
consumption may also have an impact on financial develop-
ment, capital, import and export, and international trade
(Shahbaz et al. 2013). Furthermore, Bakirtas and Akpolat
Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz
*Yu Hao
haoyuking@gmail.com; haoyuking@bit.edu.cn
*Haitao Wu
haitao.kungfuer@gmail.com
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12623-4
/ Published online: 26 February 2021
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021) 28:33192–33207
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
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