Why Azerbaijan Won

Abstract

Modern-day warfare is very expensive, as well as destructive. A state must have serious economic power and a healthy defence budget to ensure it has access to up-to-date military hardware and remote-controlled combat equipment.
Put simply, this is why Azerbaijan won the recent 44-day war in Nagorny Karabakh. An analysis of the number shows that – while in recent years Armenia spent more per capita on defence than Azerbaijan – diversification and oil revenue gave Baku the advantage.

Full text

Why Azerbaijan Won
Hi-tech weapon systems bought with oil revenue
ultimately tipped the balance.
Tuesday, 17 November, 2020
Gubad Ibadoglu
Modern-day warfare is very expensive, as well as destructive. A
state must have serious economic power and a healthy defence
budget to ensure it has access to up-to-date military hardware
and remote-controlled combat equipment.
Put simply, this is why Azerbaijan won the recent 45-day war in
Nagorny Karabakh. An analysis of the number shows that –
while in recent years Armenia spent more per capita on defence
than Azerbaijan – diversification and oil revenue gave Baku the
advantage.
First of all, Azerbaijan has been able to diversify its foreign arms
purchases.
Israel was Azerbaijan's first largest military trading partner in
arms imports in 2015-2019. Its share of Azerbaijan's arms
imports during that period was 60 per cent, with Russia
providing 31 per cent and Turkey 3.2 per cent. The remaining

5.8 per cent was divided between Ukraine, Belarus, Pakistan
and China.
This allowed Azerbaijan to modernise its weapons fleet. The
use of weapons such as Bayraktar TB2, a Turkish medium
altitude long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle, and the Israeli
Heron-TP drone played an important role in swinging the war in
favour of Azerbaijan.
The Azerbaijani government prefers current political allies when
choosing partners for military trade. Thus Russia was its main
partner in 2010-2015 – with Azerbaijan purchases of military
equipment accounting for five per cent of exports - Israel in
2015-2019, and Turkey in 2020.
Azerbaijani-Turkish military cooperation has long been close;
trainings involving both armies of the two countries and
involving all types of troops grows every year. There were
seven such events in 2013, rising to 13 in 2019.
In the first nine months of 2020, Azerbaijan’s arms imports from
Turkey's defence and aviation sector amounted to 123.26
million dollars. This made Azerbaijan the world’s fourth largest
importer of weapons from Turkey. In September Azerbaijan
topped the list, buying 77.167 million dollars worth of weapons.

In contrast, however, Armenia remained dependent on Russia
as its main weapons supplier, with its agreement applying only
to internationally regognised Armenian territory and not
Karabakh.
Due to the secrecy surrounding military cooperation between
the two countries, it is difficult to determine the scope and
characteristics of this trade.
The only sources are the credit agreements between Armenia
and Russia. Armenia’s expenditure programme for 2018-2020
envisaged a 60 million dollar annual increase in military
expenditures spending, with the goal of increasing the share of
military expenditures in GDP to 4 per cent by 2020.
In 2017, Armenia’s military expenditure amounted to 450 million
dollars and a 3.6 per cent share of GDP. Part of its arsenal
consisted of outdated, even Soviet-era weapons, with a heavy
reliance on tanks and artillery.
Two weeks before the start of the latest Karabakh war, minister
of defence David Tonoyan told reporters, “Armenia has twice
received loans for the purchase of modern weapons and
military equipment.

“Under the first agreement, 200 million dollars worth of weapons
and equipment were delivered to the country. The process of
signing another 100 million dollar loan agreement is underway.”
Azerbaijan’s military spending depends heavily on its oil
revenues. When oil revenues peaked between 2010 to 2015,
most of the money that the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan
Republic (SOFAZ) transferred to the budget was used to fund
social and military projects.
Azerbaijan’s increase in military spending forced Armenia to
follow suit. But while the oil-rich Azerbaijani economy did not
suffer unduly, this became a significant financial burden for
Armenia.
This in turn affected the mobilisation of the Armenian army, as
young people of fighting age left the country in large numbers to
seek work abroad.
Armenia spends proportionally more on the military, but this is
to be expected given that that its GDP is four times less than
that of Azerbaijan. Last year, Armenia’s military expenditure
amounted to 673 million dollars while Azerbaijan's was 1,850
million. This meant that, per capita military expenditures in
Azerbaijan last year amounted to 184 dollars, compared to 232
dollars in Armenia.

Ultimately, it was Azerbaijan’s superior military that won them
the war and forced a deal on Armenia that saw them lose
control over the cultural and historical capital of Shusha
alongside several parts of Karabakh and surrounding territories
that had been under Armenian control since 1994.
Armenia must withdraw from these territories, while Russian
peacekeepers will monitor the ceasefire, mainly through the
Lachin corridor, one of two main supply routes that connect
Karabakh to Armenia.
According to the Global Firepower 2020 report ranking the
world's strongest armies, Azerbaijan is 64 out of 138 countries.
Armenia is ranked at 111th. Given these figures, and in the
absence of a diplomatic or negotiated settlement, Baku always
had the military advantage.