ArticlePDF Available

Effect of climate change on growth and productivity of cotton: Global Scenario

Authors:
  • Nya. Aathalye arts, Ved. S. R. Sapre Commerce & Vid. Dadasaheb Pitre Science College Devrukh, Dist. Ratnagiri

Abstract and Figures

Climate change is likely to affect cotton production in world especially through changes in temperature, rainfall and carbon dioxide concentration. This paper reviews various studies and discusses the findings of different experiments carried out to assess impact of climate change on cotton growth and yield throughout the world. It also gives insight on cotton producing countries, various models used for predictions of climate change impacts and mitigation measures also. Increase in carbon dioxide concentration will promote photosynthesis, plant growth and total dry biomass which will increase cotton yield. However, these beneficial effects will occur only under optimum temperature for cotton plant and when sufficient soil moisture is maintained. Temperature influences cotton growth and development by determining rates of fruit production, photosynthesis and respiration. The results and predictions vary at different regions of the world. Effect of climate change on cotton production evidently proved that additional increase in global temperature would considerably decline cotton yield. Cotton production is also affected by projected changes in precipitation, though it's effect is relatively small as compared with temperature. The negative effects of climate change can be lessened by mitigation measures.
Content may be subject to copyright.
Effect of climate change on growth and productivity of cotton:
Global Scenario
Naikwade Pratap Vyankatrao
Dept. of Botany, Athalye Sapre Pitre College, Devrukh, Dist. Ratnagiri, Maharashtra, India
Abstract
Climate change is likely to affect cotton production in world especially through changes in
temperature, rainfall and carbon dioxide concentration. This paper reviews various studies and
discusses the findings of different experiments carried out to assess impact of climate change on
cotton growth and yield throughout the world. It also gives insight on cotton producing countries,
various models used for predictions of climate change impacts and mitigation measures also.
Increase in carbon dioxide concentration will promote photosynthesis, plant growth and total dry
biomass which will increase cotton yield. However, these beneficial effects will occur only under
optimum temperature for cotton plant and when sufficient soil moisture is maintained.
Temperature influences cotton growth and development by determining rates of fruit production,
photosynthesis and respiration. The results and predictions vary at different regions of the world.
Effect of climate change on cotton production evidently proved that additional increase in global
temperature would considerably decline cotton yield. Cotton production is also affected by
projected changes in precipitation, though it’s effect is relatively small as compared with
temperature. The negative effects of climate change can be lessened by mitigation measures.
Keywords: carbon dioxide, crop, rainfall, temperature, yield
Introduction
Climate change is considered as one of the greatest environmental, social and economic
challenge with which the planet is threatened at present. Increasing concentration of carbon
dioxide, due to various anthropogenic activities, is one of important contributor to global
warming and climate change [1]. An increase in the emission levels of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, elevated temperature and evaporation levels as well as decreasing precipitation are
some of the expected climate change scenarios [2]. As per IPCC predictions, carbon dioxide
concentration could increase from current levels to between 500 and 970 ppm by the end this
century. This will cause increase in global temperature in range of 1° to 5.5 °C till 2100.
Agriculture plays very important role in production as well as mitigation of carbon dioxide and
greenhouse gases besides it is influenced by climate change [3].
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is grown in 33 million hectare area and fulfills nearby
31% of fiber needs in the world [4]. Cotton is also useful due to it’s by products like cottonseed
oil and cotton meal which are used in food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic and other industries [5].
Climate change especially increase in temperature is going to affect cotton yield in both way.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:64
Temperature is very important for plants [6] responsible for fruit production, photosynthesis and
respiration rates which ultimately impacts growth and development of cotton [7]. A hot weather
condition causes more evaporation through plant surfaces which leads to extreme water stress in
cotton plant [8]. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to enhance
cotton production as cotton is a C3 plant, in this situation C3 crops will be more benefited than
C4 crops [9]. Various Free Air CO2 Enrichment i.e. FACE experiments confirmed a strong
relation of cotton production and growth to elevated carbon dioxide concentration [10].
Cotton is grown in semi-arid and arid environments throughout the world, either as rain-
fed or through water irrigation systems. Cotton plant requires water mainly at flowering and boll
formation stage of plant development. As predicted increasing temperatures is useful for growth
of plant only when day temperature does not exceed 32º C. Experiments by Reddy et al. [11]
revealed that if temperature is increased above optimum level it will cause boll abscission and
smaller boll size and ultimately decreased production. Though increased CO2 concentration is
supposed to be beneficial due to fertilization effect, increases in carbon dioxide in combination
with increased temperatures will decrease cotton production. Similar results were obtained by
Reddy and Zhao [12]; Oosterhuis and Snider [13] proved that increased temperature will result
into decreased cotton yields.
Climate change is also accompanying with changes in precipitation patterns so in some
areas it will create problem of water scarcity. If adequate water is not available it will decrease
growth and productivity of cotton, in future this problem may become severe [14]. Elevated
carbon dioxide concentration shows some positive effects, it increases biomass, causes partial
closure of stomata and reduce transpiration, increases water-use efficiency of plant,[15]. Ephrath
et al. [16] showed that cotton crop grown at 700 ppm CO2 concentration use less water due to
reduced transpiration as compared to the plant grown at current CO2 concentration.
Studies are carried out to assess impact of climate change on cotton growth and yield
throughout the world. The results and predictions vary at different regions. Considering the gap
of knowledge this paper reviews various studies and discusses the findings of all studies to get
global scenario of cotton production influenced by climate change.
Cotton producing Countries
Cotton is important cash crop, produced in more than 100 countries of the world. Top 10
cotton producing countries are given in Table 1. India is at first position in cotton production and
at second and third positions are USA and China respectively [17]. Various factors affecting on
cotton production are climate abnormalities like draughts, floods, pest and diseases, competition
from weed, decreased soil fertility etc. [18].
Global cotton production will be definitely affected by climate change especially Western
Africa or South Asia area due to additional stress. Farming in these areas is hassled due to
increased demand caused by population explosion. Reports have predicted that high temperature
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:65
and uneven distribution of rainfall have negative effects on crop productivity all over the world
[19].
Table 1 Top 10 Major Cotton producing countries in the world Source:[17]
Rank
Country
Cotton Production in
2018-19
1
India
5770
2
USA
3999
3
China
3500
4
Brazil
2787
5
Pakistan
1655
6
Turkey
806
7
Uzbekistan
713
8
Australia
479
9
Turkmenistan
198
10
Burkina
185
Models used
Various crop models are used for predictions of impact of climate change on cotton
productions. Two main methodologies used to assess impact of climate change on crop
production are crop growth models which are computer based simulations and second is
statistical model [20]. Though these two methodologies are used throughout the world; they have
some benefits and drawbacks. Crop growth modeling tools like DSSAT, EPIC and TEM are also
used [21]. EPIC is a popular model used in various studies for various in world.
Crop models can be used to assess effect of climate, soil and agricultural practices on
crop yield in a particular area [22]. Further common models used to study growth and yield of
cotton are PALMScot, PALMS, Cotton2K, Precision Agricultural Landscape modeling System
[23]. Other popular models for cotton are FAO‐56 [24], AquaCrop [25], CROPR [26]. For
Indian region, Infocrop is used to pretend growth and production of cotton [27]. Climate models
done a decent job in assessing large-scale aspects of current climate, nevertheless still contain
systemic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projection at certain level [28].
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:66
Impact of climate change on growth and development of cotton
Changes in CO2 level influences growth and development of Cotton. As predicted,
increased carbon dioxide will enhance photosynthesis, increase leaf area, height of plant and
total dry biomass. It also causes advantages like reduced shedding of buds and bolls as well as
delayed leaf senescence [29], leading to an increase in crop yield. Nevertheless, these beneficial
effects will occur only under optimum temperature for cotton plant and when sufficient soil
moisture is maintained [30]. Increased carbon dioxide level will increase water and radiation
efficiency of plant [31]. Elevated CO2 concentration increased 220 cotton bolls than regular; it is
very positive response of cotton plant than other crops [9].
Changes in temperature and quantity, frequency of rainfall also influences growth of
cotton as per various studies. Ideally cotton requires 900 mm water but irregular weather
conditions are forecasted which will not fulfill water requirement of cotton grown on dry land or
semi‐irrigated condition so it will badly affect crop growth [32]. Adhikari et al.[33] proved that
even under elevated carbon dioxide concentrations, water shortage can limit cotton production.
Similar results were obtained by Mauney et al [34] who exhibited that availability of water and
nutrients affects cotton growth under increased carbon dioxide level also. Cotton growth and
yield levels decreased when precipitation was decreased and temperature increased as reported
by Gwimbi and Mundoga [35].
Temperature is very important factor which impact growth and development of cotton
crops [36]. Higher temperature also badly affects bud and fibre length of cotton. Quality of fibres
and maturity increases with increase in temperature up to 26°C while decreases at 32°C as
reported by Bange and Milroy [37]. For good flowering and fruit production maximum
temperature is 32º C for cotton for flowering and fruiting period [38].
Additional effect of increased carbon dioxide is, it will cause dynamic growth of weeds
which leads to great competition to cotton crop especially at seedling stage. However most of the
weeds are C4 plants and cotton is C3 plant, cotton competes more successfully with weeds when
water and nutrients are properly provided [39]. Weeds are causing great competition to crops for
sunlight as well to get nutrient and water from soil [40].
Further climate change projections revealed that solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation will
be increased in coming years on the earth’s surface. As per reports of Zhao et al. [41], higher
level of UV-B radiation around 15.1 kJ/m2 per day prominently decrease growth rate particularly
stem elongation, leaf area and increase in biomass. UV-B radiation will negatively affect net
photosynthesis and growth of cotton and it will not be compensated by fertilization effect of
carbon dioxide. Carmo‐Silva et al.[42] in a field experiment found that photosynthetic
performance of modern cultivars was greater than older cultivars so cultivation of new cultivars
will be useful in changing climate.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:67
Impact of climate change on cotton production
Different experiments throughout the world have projected different predictions on cotton
yield which are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2. Projections about change in cotton yield due to climate change as per different
experiments
Country/
Area
Prediction about Change in Yield of cotton
Reference
African
countries
Decrease in yield due to increase in temperature and
reduction in rainfall
Kurukulasuriya and
Mendelsohn[43],
Molua and Lambi
[44]
Africa
Increase in cotton yield when soil fertility and adequate
water provided
Amouzou et al. [45]
Africa
Eastern
area
Decrease in cotton yield under elevated CO2
concentrations and water stress.
Adhikari et al. [33]
Australia
- 17% by 2050 when CO2 fertilization not considered
Williams et al.[46]
Brazil,
India,
Central
Asia
Decrease in cotton yield if no effects of CO2 fertilization
are assumed
Jans et al.[47]
Burkina
Faso
+ 3% for 1 °C increase in temperature
Diarra et al. [19]
Cameroon
Increase in cotton yield under increasing CO2
concentrations
Gérardeaux et al.
[48]
China
- 1.1% for increase in temperature
Chen et al.[49]
Ethiopia
- 12% to -13% with projected increasing temperature and
erratic nature of rainfall
Asaminew et al.[50]
India
decreased cotton yield by 477 kgha1 for A2 scenario
decreased cotton yield by 268 kgha1 for B2 scenario
Hebbar et al. [51]
India
decrease in cotton production
Thakare et al. [52]
Iraq,
Syria,and
Egypt
decrease in cotton production
Jans et al.[47]
Pakistan
decrease in cotton production
Raza and Munir[53]
South
American
countries
decrease in cotton production due to less availability of
water
UNFCCC [54]
Togo
- 1% level decrease in cotton production
Soviadan et al. [55]
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:68
U.S.A.
Decrease in yield with increase in temperature
Reddy et al.[56]
U.S.A.
Eastern
- 25 % for 4 °C increase in temperature
Schlenker and
Roberts [57]
U.S.A.
Mississippi
Decrease in yield with increase in temperature
Schimmelpfennig et
al.[58]
USA Texas
- 4 to -17% when carbon dioxide concentration supposed
constant
Adhikari et al.[59]
U.S.A.
Maricopa,
Aeizona
+ 40% for CO2 enrichment
Kimball et al.[60]
USA
California
+ 3 to 41% under different future climate change scenario
experiments.
Smith and Tirpak
[61]
USA
California
Decrease in cotton yield in both emission scenario
Lee at al. [62]
Uzbekistan
- 4% by 2030 with increase in temperature
UNFCCC
Uzbekistan [63]
Zimbabwe
Decrease in yield due to increase in temperature and
reduction in rainfall
Gwimbi [64]
USA
Various experiments carried out at different regions of USA showed diverse results.
Schlenker and Roberts [57] carried out experiments to study impact of climate change on U.S
cotton production. By using data from 1950 to 2005 and fixed-effects models, it was concluded
that cotton yield rises with increasing temperature up to 32°C only, above this level it can be
detrimental for cotton crop. If temperature is increased by 4°C it can decrease cotton yield by
25%. Similarly, after examining state-level panel data Schimmelpfennig et al.[58] reported that
cotton production is badly influenced by increasing temperature.
Reddy et al.[56] used crop simulation models to estimate impact of climate change on
cotton production in Mississippi, USA and found that as projected, if increase in temperature due
to global warming continues, cotton yield will be declined in upcoming years. Doherty et al. [65]
carried out studies at southeastern USA, noticed irregularities in the forecast of cotton production
variations caused due to climate change. Ouedraogo et al. [66] by using Ricardian approach
estimated correlation between agricultural revenues and climate change. According to them 1°C
increases in temperature may reduce profits by $ 19.9 ha-1 while 1 mm/month increase in
precipitation will result into decline in profits by $ 2.7 ha-1.
Adhikari et al.[59] in a study found that cotton production in Texas state of USA will be
reduced by 417% when CO2 concentration was supposed unchanged, under three climatic
model scenarios. However in other condition, if CO2 concentration was presumed to elevate
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:69
upto 493 ppm (in 2041) and 635 ppm (in 2070) as per IPCC A2 emission scenario, cotton seed
production will increase by 1429%. In contrast decrease in irrigation facility upto 40% may
decrease cotton seed production by 37% if CO2 concentration is constant and decline by 39%
when CO2 concentration is increasing in future from 2041 to 2070. It shows that cotton yield is
sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentrations so if adequate water is made available in future,
cotton production in this region will overcome effects of future climate change.
In a FACE experiment at Arizona State USA, Kimball et al.[60] found that increased
carbon dioxide concentration will positively alter plant metabolism, it will improve
photosynthesis as well as water use efficiency by reducing transpiration. This will ultimately
result into, growth in cotton seed yield upto 40%. Similarly Jones and Mansfield [67] also
proved that increased carbon dioxide concentration reduces rate of transpiration by bringing a
partial closure of guard cells of stomata. In an experiment at California, in various future climate
change situations cotton seed yield was found to increase in range of 341% [61].
Changes in yield (ΔY) under A2 (medium-high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios.11-year
moving averages in California were calculated for the period from 2009 to 2094 by (Lee at al
[62] and prediction was given which shows decrease in cotton production in both scenarios as
shown in Fig.1
Fig. 1. Future Cotton yield predictions [62]
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:70
African Countries
Various experiments are also carried out to study impact of climate change on cotton
production in African countries. The findings of Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn [43], Molua
and Lambi [44] revealed that decreased rainfall or increased temperatures will reduce cotton
yield, which led to reduction in net revenues in Africa.
In Africa, the CROPGRO-Cotton model was used in a study which predicted increases in
Nitrogen partial factor productivity by 7 to 31%. Elevated carbon dioxide level, temperature,
rainfall variability will increase efficiency of water and nitrogen but when soil fertility is
maintained by agricultural practices in future. It will change cotton seed production between −7
and 41% [45]. The simulated increases in future seed cotton yield under increasing CO2
concentrations were, also reported by Gérardeaux et al. [48] in case of Cameroon.
In a study impact of climate change on cotton production in the Savannah region of Togo
was assessed [55]. Projected climate change will negatively affect soil fertility; it will increase
pest outbreak and resistance which ultimately result into increase in production cost and
decreasing profit. It was found that climate change may reduce cotton yield upto 1% with about
2330 kg less cotton production to each farmer. The agricultural revenue of each farmer will be
declined approximately US $745.
Diarra et al. [19] evaluated the impact of climate change on cotton production in Burkina
Faso. The results indicated that projected increase in global temperature will decrease cotton
yield. If temperature increases by 1°C, cotton yield increases to 3% however yield decreases
when temperature is higher. It shows that temperature more than optimum level is
disadvantageous for cotton production in African countries. About predictions about rainfall, it
was found that cotton yield increases with increase in rainfall and vice versa. If precipitation
increases to 20%, it will increase cotton production upto 3% while if precipitation declines to
20%, it will decrease production upto 4.4 % than current range. Nevertheless projected
temperature will have more negative effect on cotton production than rainfall. Climate
irregularities like floods, heat waves etc. also decrease production in Africa as reported by
Adhikari et al.[33].
In Ethiopia Asaminew et al.[50] investigated effect of climate change specially
precipitation and temperature on cotton production with help of DSSATV4.6 model. Increasing
annual temperature and variability in seasonal rainfall pattern was noticed as compared to past
data which will decline cotton production in range of 12% -13% . It was found that Climate
change will also alter planting dates of cotton crop either early or late depending on geographical
location of sites. In Zimbabwe, analysis of weather data of past 30 years was used to project
future impact of climate change by Gwimbi [64]. The results showed that due to increase in
temperature and decrease in rainfall, cotton yield will decrease in studied area.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:71
Australia
In Australia, impact of climate change was assessed on cotton production by using
APSIM model and as per results, if beneficial effect of elevated carbon dioxide concentration is
not considered, there will be 17% loss in cotton yield by 2050. However, with CO2 fertilization
effect, yield will be increased by 5.9% until 2030 and will be diminished by 3.6% by 2050 [46].
When carbon dioxide concentration and temperature was increased, cotton biomass was also
increased [68]. Similar findings were reported by Conaty et al. [69].
China
As per reports, increase in temperature amplified cotton production in Northwest China
region while, decreased in Yangtze River valley region. Data analysis of 19612010 showed that
cotton production was declined approximately 0.1% in general. Climate change resulted into
variations in precipitation which has increased or decreased cotton yield in some regions. But
overall the loss of yield was around 1.1%. So in both the cases cotton production in China was
declined due to changes in temperature and precipitation [49]. However as reported by Yang et
al.[70] cotton yield possibly increased due to a warming trend, in China.
In China, every 1º C increase in temperature would bring about increase of 10 days frost-
free situation. It will result into extension of growing season of cotton crop for approximately 10
days, which will increase opening bolls percentage in range of 5%10%, as well as improvement
in strength and maturity of cotton fibre [71].
India
To understand the implications of climate change in India, cotton production to the
different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation
model Infocrop-cotton. As per GCM projections temperature of cotton cultivating provinces of
India will increase by 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C. Impact of climate change will decrease cotton
production in northern India however production in in central and southern part of India will be
remain unaffected or slight increase. Collectively climate change will not affect cotton yield at
the national level in India. Cotton productivity in India may increase if mitigation measures to
climate change like changes in planting time using responsive cultivars are adopted [51].
Climate change will create favorable condition for insect and pest attacks on cotton crops.
Increase in temperature will intensify water requirement of crop. Inconsistent monsoon and
changed weather conditions will badly affect crop physiology and will reduce cotton yield.
Further, such changes in cotton growing areas could form the basis of planning and decisions on
pricing, crop insurance, export and import policies of cotton crop [52].
Other Countries and regions
In Pakistan, in a study by Raza and Munir [53], Fixed Effect Model was used for
econometric estimations of impact of climate change. Cotton productivity will be affected by
changes in temperature and precipitation. Increase temperature will reduce cotton yield more
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:72
badly in Sindh than Punjab. The impacts of physical variables like area, fertilizer, P/NPK ratio
and technology are positive and highly significant. According to another field experiment with
29 GCMs and RCPs, it is predicted that temperature will increase in range between 1.2 to 3.1 °C
in RCP 4.5 and 1.4 to 3.9 °C in RCP 8.5 scenario. Rainfall is predicted to change from 5% to
17% in RCP 4.5 and−2 to 22% in in RCP 8.5 which is not good condition for cotton productivity
[72].
In Latin America yields will be declined by the end of this century, however in mid-
latitude areas, yield will be unaffected where decrease in yield due to climate change will be
counterbalanced by elevated carbon dioxide which has fertilization effects on the crop [54].
Attavanich and McCarl [73] documented the impact of atmospheric CO2 on current and
future crop yield using various crop models. The results predicted that due to elevated carbon
dioxide concentration cotton yield will increase by 51%. Colder region will get benefit of climate
change due to longer growing season but crop growth and productivity will be badly affected in
summer in warmer regions Rosenzweig and Hillel [74].
If fertilization effect of increased carbon dioxide is not considered cotton production will
be reduced due to climate change in most of production regions. Various models showed diverse
pattern of changes in cotton production upto 2ton per hectare reduction in yield in major parts of
the cotton cultivation region. According to RCP8.5 scenario, climate change will decrease cotton
production considerably in Argentina, Bolivia, Egypt, Iraq and Syria. If beneficial effect of
elevated carbon dioxide is not considered, cotton production of USA, Central and Southern Asia,
Brazil, Australia and Southern China will be decreased substantially. However due to climate
change, cotton production in Peru, Northeast part of China and some regions of Central Asia will
be increased. For RCP2.6, worldwide cotton yield will decrease after 2040, while other RCPs
simulated increase in cotton production. Increased carbon dioxide concentration and it’s
fertilization effect on cotton yield depends availability of adequate water [47].
To reduce negative effect of climate change on crop production mitigation measures are
recommended like shifting growing areas, improving water capture and use. New cultivars must
be developed which are heat resistant, drought resistant, pest and disease resistant, early
maturing and fast growing [75]. To increase nitrogen efficiency and to maintain soil fertility; it is
advised to use organic manures for increase in growth and yield of crops [76]. Climate Smart
Agriculture is also another important option for sustainability of cotton yield. It’s main
advantages include higher germination, better production, profit by wise use of water and
fertilizer, extension services and agricultural management method [77].
Conclusion
As projected by different models, increase in temperatures and other changes in climate
in mid and end of 21st century will be considerably different than current environment so cotton
growth and yield will be affected due to changing climate scenario. Effect of climate change on
cotton production evidently proved that additional increase in global temperature would
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:73
considerably decline cotton yield. Cotton production is also affected by projected changes in
precipitation, though it’s effect is relatively small as compared with temperature. Temperature
influences cotton growth and development by determining rates of fruit production,
photosynthesis and respiration. Increase in carbon dioxide concentration will promote
photosynthesis, plant growth and total dry biomass which will increase cotton yield. However,
these beneficial effects will occur only under optimum temperature for cotton plant and when
sufficient soil moisture is maintained. But it will become difficult due to inconsistency in amount
and frequency rainfall.
The results and predictions vary at different regions of the world. Heat stress risks will
decrease cotton production in warmer countries of South East Asia and Africa, however
countries in colder region will be benefitted due to limited increase in temperatures which will
positively impact growth and growing season of cotton. Due to increase in temperature it can be
grown on cold area where cotton is not growing now, which will result into increased cotton
production. Climate change will decrease cotton production considerably in Argentina, Bolivia,
Egypt, Iraq and Syria. If fertilization effect of carbon dioxide is not taken inconsideration, cotton
production of USA, Central and Southern Asia, Brazil, Australia and Southern China will be
decreased substantially.
In India, projected higher temperature and decreased precipitation might decline cotton
production in northern part of India than southern India. Furthermore, increased photosynthesis
due to elevated carbon dioxide could compensate for decrease in cotton yield due to increased
temperature and declined rainfall.
Various models are used to assess impact of climate change all over the world however it
is recommended that various aspects of crop production must be incorporated in modeling
experiments to clearly produce holistic picture of effect of climate change on productivity. The
negative effects of climate change can be mitigated by developing some adaptation measures and
Climate Smart Agriculture.
References
1 Naikwade PV, Bansode RP, Jadhav Suraj, Tatkare Mangesh, Karande Madhuri.
Estimation of carbon sequestrated in ASP College campus, Devrukh, Dist. Ratnagiri,
Maharashtra, India. Bioinfolet. 2017;14(4a): 366-367.
2 Ye L and Grimm NB. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and
nitrate export from a mid‐sized, semiarid watershed in the US southwest. Climatic
Change. 2013;120(1): 419431.
3 Naikwade Pratap Vyankatrao. Soil organic carbon sequestration by long-term application
of manures prepared from Trianthema portulacastrurm Linn. Communications in Soil
Science and Plant Analysis. 2019; 50(20): 2579-2592.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:74
4 NCC. Cotton Growing Countries‐ranking by Production. National cotton council of
America. http://www.cotton.org/econ/cropinfo/cropdata/rankings.cfm 2018.
5 Egbuta MA, McIntosh S, Waters DLE. Biological importance of cotton by‐products
relative to chemical constituents of the cotton plant. Molecules. 2017; 22 (1): 125.
6 Naikwade PV. Effect of drying methods on nutritional value of some vegetables.
Bioscience Discovery. 2015; 6:80-84.
7 Turner NC, Hearn AB, Begg JE and Constable GA. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.):
Physiological and morphological responses to water deficits and their relationship to
yield. Field Crops Research. 1986;14:153170.
8 Hall AE. Crop Responses to Environment. CRC Press,
https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420041088, 2000.
9 Kimball BA. Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H2O, N, and
temperature. Current Opinion in Plant Biology. 2016;31:3643.
10 Hendrix D. Mauney J. Kimball B. Lewin K, Nagy J. and Hendrey G. Influence of
elevated CO2 and mild water stress on nonstructural carbohydrates in field-grown cotton
tissues. Agricultural and forest meteorology. 1994;70:153162.
11 Reddy KR, Vara Prasad PV and Kakani V G. Crop responses to elevated carbon dioxide
and interactions with temperature: cotton. Journal of Crop Improvement. 2005;13:157
191.
12 Reddy KR and Zhao D. Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and potassium deficiency on
photosynthesis, growth, and biomass partitioning of cotton. Field Crops Research.
2005;94:201213.
13 Oosterhuis DM and Snider JL. High temperature stress on floral development and yield
of cotton. Stress physiology in cotton,2011;7:124.
14 Le Houérou HN. Climate change, drought and desertification. Journal of arid
Environments. 1996;34: 133185.
15 Ko J and Piccinni G. Characterizing leaf gas exchange responses of cotton to full and
limited irrigation conditions. Field crops research. 2009;112:7789.
16 Ephrath J, Timlin D, Reddy V and Baker J. Irrigation and elevated carbon dioxide effects
on whole canopy photosynthesis and water use efficiency in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum
L.). Plant biosystems. 2011;145:202215.
17 USDA https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/cotton-world-markets-and-trade(2019)
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:75
18 Eskandari S, Guppy CN, Knox OGG. Understanding the impact of soil sodicity on
mycorrhizal symbiosis: some facts and gaps identified from cotton systems. Applied Soil
Ecology. 2018;126:199201.
19 Lobell DB, Field CB. California perennial crops in a changing climate. Climatic Change.
2011;109(1):317-333.
20 Diarra A, Barbier, B, Zongo BEE and Yacouba H. Impact of climate change on cotton
production in Burkina Faso. African Journal of Agricultural Research. 2017;12(7):494
501.
21 Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW,
Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT. The DSSAT Cropping System Model. Euro. J. Agron.
2003;18:235-265.
22 Hammer GL, Kropff MJ, Sinclair TR and Porter JR. Future contributions of crop
modeling from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic
regulation and aiding crop improvement. European Journal of Agronomy. 2002:18 (1
2):1531.
23 Booker JD, Lascano RJ, Evett SR and Zartman RE. Evaluation of a landscape‐scale
approach to cotton modeling. Agronomy Journal. 2014;106(6):22632279.
24 Thorp KR, Hunsaker DJ, Bronson KF. Cotton irrigation scheduling using a crop growth
model and FAO‐56 methods: field and simulation studies. Transactions of the ASABE.
2017;60(6): 20232039.
25 Tan S, Wang Q, Zhang J. Performance of AquaCrop model for cotton growth simulation
under filmmulched drip irrigation in southern Xinjiang, China. Agricultural Water
Management. 2018;196: 99113.
26 Qian L, Wang XG, Luo WB. An improved CROPR model for estimating cotton yield
under soil aeration stress. Crop & Pasture Science. 2017;68(4):366377.
27 Hebbar KB, Venugopalan MV, Seshasai MVR, Rao KV, Patil BC, Prakash AH, Kumar
V, Hebbar KR, Jeyakumar P, Bandhopadhyay KK, Rao MRK, Khadi BM, Aggarwal PK.
Predicting cotton production using Infocrop-cotton simulation model, remote sensing and
spatial agro-climatic data. Curr Sci. 2008;95:15701580.
28 Naikwade PV. Impact of climate change on agricultural production in India: effect on
rice productivity. Bioscience Discovery. 2017; 8(4): 897-914.
29 Kranthi KR. Challenges and opportunities in cotton production research. ICAC (2009)
Biosafety Regulations, Implementation and Consumer Acceptance. International Cotton
Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC.1620. 2009.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:76
30 Broughton KJ, Bange MP, Duursma RA. The effect of elevated atmospheric [CO2] and
increased temperatures on an older and modern cotton cultivar. Functional Plant Biology.
2017;44(12):12071218.
31 Pinter PJ Jr, Kimball BA, Mauncy JR. Effects of free‐air carbon dioxide enrichment on
PAR Absorption and conversion efficiency by cotton. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology. 1994;70(14):209230.
32 CRDC. Australian cotton production manual, CRDC, Australia.Department of
Agriculture and Fisheries. 2017.
33 Adhikari U, Nejadhashemi AP and Woznicki SA. Climate change and eastern Africa: a
review of impact on major crops. Food and Energy Security. 2015;4(2):110132.
34 Mauney JR, Kimball BA, Pinter Jr PJ, LaMorte RL, Lewin KF, Nagy J and Hendrey GR.
Growth and yield of cotton in response to a free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE)
environment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 1994;70:4967.
35 Gwimbi P and Mundoga T. Impact of climate change on cotton production under rainfed
conditions: Case of Gokwe. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa. 2010;12
(8):59-69.
36 Christiansen MN. Influence of atmospheric parameters on growth and development.
1986;4: 39-46.
37 Bange M and Milroy S. Impact of short-term exposure to cold night temperatures on
early development of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Australian journal of agricultural
research, 2004;55:655-664.
38 Pettigrew T. High temperature effects on cotton yield, yield components, and fibre
quality. Back to The ASA-CSSASSSA International Annual Meetings, 4-8November,
2007.
39 Kaynak MA. Production problems in 2025. The Vision for Technology in 2025, 3. 2007.
40 Ghadge Sangita, Naikwade Pratap and Jadhav Bharati. Utilization of problematic weed
for improved yield of fenugreek, Indian Stream research Journal. 2013;3(4):21-28.
41 Zhao D, Reddy KR, Kakani VG, Read JJ and Sullivan JH.Growth and physiological
responses of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to elevated carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B
radiation under controlled environmental conditions. Plant, Cell and Environment
2003;26:771782.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:77
42 Carmo‐Silva AE, Gore MA, Andrade‐Sanchez P. Decreased CO2 availability and
inactivation of rubisco limit photosynthesis in cotton plants under heat and drought stress
in the field. Environmental and Experimental Botany. 2012;83:111.
43 Kurukulasuriya P and Mendelsohn R. A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate
Change on African Cropland. Afr. J. Agric. Res. Econ. 2008;2(1).
44 Molua E and Lambi C. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in
Cameroon. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 2007;4364:22.
45 Amouzou KA, Naab JB, Lamers JPA, Borgemeister C, Becker M, Vlek PLG.
CROPGRO-cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water-and N-
use efficiencies of cotton in the dry savanna of West Africa. Agricultural Systems.
2018;165:85-96.
46 Williams A, White N, Mushtaq S, Cockfield G, Power B, Kouadio L. Quantifying the
response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change. Clim. Change.
2015;129:183196.
47 Jans Yvonne, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Müller Christoph. Global cotton
production under climate change-Implications for yield and water consumption.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion. 2020;1-27.
48 Gérardeaux E, Sultan B, Palaï O, Guiziou C, Oettli P, Naudin K. Positive effect of
climate change on cotton in 2050 by CO2 enrichment and conservation agriculture in
Cameroon. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 2013;33:485495.
49 Chen C, Pang Y, Pan X, Zhang L. Impacts of climate change on cotton yield in China
from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data. Journal of Meteorological Research.
2015;29(3):515-524.
50 Asaminew TG, Araya A, Atkilt G and Solomon H, Modeling the Potential Impact of
Climate Change on Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) Production in Northeastern Semi-Arid
Afar and Western Tigray Regions of Ethiopia. J Earth Sci Clim Change. 2017;8:3.
51 Hebbar KB, Venugopalan MV, Prakash AH and Aggarwal PK. Simulating the impacts of
climate change on cotton production in India. Climatic Change. 2013;118:701713.
52 Thakare HS, Shrivastava PK and Bardhan Kirti. Impact of weather parameters on cotton
productivity at Surat (Gujarat), India. Journal of Applied and Natural Science.
2014;6(2):599-604.
53 Raza Amar and Munir Ahmad. Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton
Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan Climate Change Working Papers No. 9
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad,1-33,2015.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:78
54 UNFCCC. Climate change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing
countries. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.UNFCCC. 68 p.
2008.
55 Soviadan MK, Koffi-Tessio EM, Enete AA and Nweze NJ. Impact of Climate Change on
Cotton Production: Case of Savannah Region, Northern Togo. Agricultural Sciences.
2019;10:927-947.
56 Reddy KR, Doma PR, Mearns LO, Hodges HF, Richardson AG, Boone MYL, Kakani
VG. Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi
delta. Climate Res. 2002;22:271-281.
57 Schlenker W and Roberts MJ. Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages
to U.S. Crop Yields under Climate Change. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, September 15 2009, 106 (37):15594-15598.
58 Schimmelpfennig DE, Chen CC, McCarl BA. Yield Variability as Influenced by Climate:
A Statistical Investigation. Climatic Chang. 2004;66:239-61.
59 Adhikari P, Srinivasulu Alea, James P. Bordovsky , Kelly R. Thorp, Naga R. Modala ,
Nithya Rajan, Edward M. Barnes, Simulating future climate change impacts on seed
cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-cotton model.
Agricultural Water Management. 2016;164:317-330.
60 Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bindi M. Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2
enrichment. Adv. Agron. 2002;77:293368.
61 Smith JB and Tirpak DA. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United
States (Report to Congress No. EPA-230-05). US Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington DC. 1989.
62 Lee Juhwan, Gryze Steven De and Six Johan. Effect of climate change on field crop
production in California’s Central Valley, Climatic Change 109 (Suppl 1):S335
S353.2011.
63 UNFCCC Uzbekistan. Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC, 184 p.
2008
64 Gwimbi P. Cotton Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in Gokwe District
(Zimbabwe): Impact and Influencing Factors. JAMBA: J. Disaster Risk Stud. 2009;2(2).
65 Doherty RM, Mearns LO, Reddy KR, Downton MW. Spatial scale effects of climate
scenarios on simulated cotton production in the southeastern USA. Climate change. 2003.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:79
66 Ouedraogo M, Somé L and Dembele Y. Economic impact assessment of climate change
on agriculture in Burkina Faso: A Ricardian Approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 24,
Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria. 2006.
67 Jones RJ and Mansfield TA. Increases in the diffusion resistances of leaves in a carbon
dioxide-enriched atmosphere. J. Exp. Bot. 1970;21:951958.
68 Broughton KJ, Smith RA and Duursma RA. Warming alters the positive impact of
elevated CO2 concentration on cotton growth and physiology during soil water deficit.
Functional Plant Biology. 2017;44(2):267278.
69 Conaty WC, Burke JJ, Mahan JR. Determining the optimum plant temperature of cotton
physiology and yield to improve plant‐based irrigation scheduling. Crop Science
2012;52(4):18281836.
70 Yang W, Peng Shaobing RC Laza. Yield gap analysis between dry and wet season rice
crop grown under high-yielding management conditions. Agron. J. 2008;100;13901395.
71 China. The Peoples’ Republic of China’s Initial National Communication under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC, Switzerland, 156
p. 2004.
72 Rahman MH, Ashfaq Ahmad, Xuechun Wang, Aftab Wajid, Wajid Nasime, Manzoor
Hussain, Burhan Ahmad, Ishfaq Ahmad, Zulfiqar Ali, Wajid Ishaque, Muhammad
Awais, Vakhtang Shelia, Shakeel Ahmad, Shah Fahd, Mukhtar Alam, Hidayat Ullah,
Gerrit Hoogenboom. Multi-model projections of future climate and climate change
impacts uncertainty assessment for cotton production in Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology. 2018;253:94-113.
73 Attavanich W and McCarl BA. How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress?
A statistical analysis. Clim. Change;2014:124:747762.
74 Rosenzweig C and Hillel D. Climate change and the global harvest. Oxford University
Press, Oxford, UK.1998.
75 Naikwade Pratap. Impact of Climate Change on Potato Production and Mitigation
Measures. Our heritage Journal. 2020;68(38):1296-1305.
76 Mogle Umesh, Naikwade Pratap and Patil Sandip. Residual effect of organic manures on
growth and yield of Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp and Lablab purpureus L. Science
Research Reporter, 2013;3(2): 135-141.
77 Muhammad Ali Imran, Asghar Ali, Muhammad Ashfaq, Sarfraz Hassan, Richard Culas
and Chunbo Ma. Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices on Cotton
Production and Livelihood of Farmers in Punjab, Pakistan Sustainability, 10, 2101,2018.
The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis
Volume XII, Issue IV, April/2020
ISSN NO:0886-9367
Page No:80
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Article
Full-text available
Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ∼65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1, and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000 m3 t−1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.
Article
Full-text available
Agriculture and climate change are interrelated processes, it is forecasted that changing climate is going to impact yield and production of many crops. Yield of crop will be affected by changes in temperature, changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, frequency and intensity of rainfall. Potato is one of important crops in the world, it's production will be affected due to climate change. Due to climate change, growing period of crop will reduce, planting date need to be changed to increase crop production. Now lots of crop models are available which can be used for impact assessment of climate change. This paper discusses impact of climate change on potato production in India as well as world. Various experiments at several regions showed different predictions depending on weather conditions. With increase in temperature, in future potato production will gradually move from warmer south to colder northern areas and the higher mountain regions. Majority of experiments showed decline in potato production in long run due climate change. To mitigate the effect of climate change on potato production, some measures must be adapted by farmers such as shifting growing areas, improving water capture and use. New cultivars must be developed which are heat resistant, drought resistant, pest and disease resistant, early maturing and fast growing. These adaptations of potato cultivation practices will help in maintaining potato yield ensuring food security.
Article
Full-text available
Among the numerous problems that are facing cotton farmers, climate change is one of the most important still out of their control. Adaptation appears to be one of the best alternatives. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of climate change on cotton production in the Savannah region of Togo. The study was conducted with 172 cotton farmers sampled randomly in many stages in order to determine the impact of climate change on cotton production. The impact assessment of climate change on cotton production was carried out using ATE (Average Treatment Effect) and ATET (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated) models introduced by Rubin in 1974. The results show that climate change has a significant negative impact at 1% level on cotton production observed with an average decrease per farmer of 2330 kg, on the yield efficiency with an average decrease of 515 kg/ha and on the income level with an average decrease of $745 per farmer. Climate change reduces the level of soil fertility, favours pest resistance and leads to an increase in consumption of cotton production inputs per unit of area. The also reveals a low level of adaptation of cotton farmers to climate study change. The expansion of cultivated areas remains the main reaction of cotton farmers to climate’s negative effects. Raising producers’ awareness on the reality of climate change and adopting adaptation techniques and strategies would greatly improve cotton farmers’ adaptive capacity and positively affect cotton production in Savannah region, and Togo in general. Keywords: Climate Change, Cotton Production, Impact, ATE-ATET, Savannah Region, Togo
Article
Full-text available
Carbon sequestration is the process of capture and long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the tree. ASP College is located at Devrukh, Dist. Ratnagiri, Maharashtra on western slope of Sahyadri ranges. Nondestructive method was used to determine stored carbon and how much store carbon could be halt converting into greenhouse gases in College Campus. Total carbon stock in trees both above and below ground has been calculated using biomass density and then converted into C-stock. In college campus 78.92 ton carbon sequestration was estimated. High carbon sequestration potential was found in Aegle marmelos tree species.
Article
Full-text available
Climate climate is very likely to affect agricultural production at the global, regional, and local level as agriculture is dependent on climate. Global climate change is going to affect crop productions many crops including rice (Oryza sativa L.) which is the most important cereal crop and staple food for more than half of world's population. Climate change will significantly affect the agricultural sector in developing countries, leading to serious consequences related to food production and food security, with bigger impacts on smallholder farmers and the poor. Most of the available studies on potential long-term threats to the agricultural sector from climate change are based on developed countries and few on developing countries. India is one of the world's largest producers of rice, accounting for 20% of all world rice production. So, it is important to study how climate change is going to affect rice production in India. In India predictions about impact of climate change on rice production started in 1990s. There are experiments carried out at different parts of India to assess effect of climate change on rice production in India by using different models. As India's population is growing continuously it is challenge for agricultural sector in India to increase rice production combating consequences of climate change. So, this paper discusses impact of climate change on rice production as in India as whole by comparing different experiments at various regions by using different methods/ models and different climate scenarios and different factors. It will be really useful for predicting impact of climate change in future crop production of rice in India.
Article
Cotton is an important cash crop in many West African countries. Hence, its sustainable production will support the national economies as well as the livelihoods of the farming population alike and in turn help easing wide-spread poverty. However, future climate change may affect the productivity of cotton in West Africa. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to (i) parameterize the Cropping System Model- CROPGRO-Cotton to simulate growth, seed cotton yield, and in-season soil water dynamics and nitrogen (N) uptake, and (ii) apply the model to estimate potential climate change impacts on cotton growth, yields, and water- and N- productivity under different soil-fertility management practices. The CROPGRO-Cotton model was first parameterized and evaluated using datasets collected in three field experiments conducted in 2014 and 2015 in the Dry Savanna of northern Benin, West Africa. The model was next applied to determine long-term responses of cotton to historical (1986–2015) and projected climate (2080–2099) for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). CROPGRO-Cotton accurately simulated in-season soil water dynamics (nRMSE of 12–27%, d-values of 0.79–0.88), N uptake (nRMSE of 31–44%, d-values of 0.89–0.96), and biomass accrual (nRMSE of 31–46% and d-values of 0.91–0.97), as well as seed cotton yield at harvest (nRMSE of 24–39% and d-value of about 0.81). The model predicted higher seed cotton yield with planting dates in June compared to July. Under the climate change scenario of RCP2.6, CROPGRO-Cotton predicted a decrease in water use efficiency (WUE) by 20% without any soil amendment, and by 4% with an integrated soil-crop management compared to the historical run, but an increase of 2% with a high use of mineral fertilizer. With the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the predicted changes in WUE varied between −1% and 17% across the soil fertility management options. CROPGRO-Cotton predicted increases in N-partial factor productivity by 7 to 31%. The N uptake varied between −7% and 46% whilst seed cotton yield varied between −7 and 41%. The findings underlined that the predicted future increases in water and N productivity in cotton will be driven by CO2 fertilization, increases in temperatures as well as rainfall variability, but at the expense of soil fertility leading to soil mining. Yet, even if cotton, unlike some other crops in the region, will likely respond positively to climate change, adequate soil fertility management practices are essential to ensure efficient and sustainable water- and N- use in the expected future.
Article
Soil sodicity degrades land and more than half of the world's sodic soils are in Australia. Farmers in Australia produce and export cotton grown in sodic soils. Undesirable physicochemical constraints (e.g. high pH, high bulk density, low porosity and reduced oxygen content) are associated with sodic soils and may adversely affect microbial interactions in the rhizosphere, including mycorrhizal associations. This viewpoint focusses on facts and gaps in our knowledge about mycorrhizal associations in sodic soils, with special attention to cotton systems. We highlight the difference between saline and sodic soil conditions and the impacts they may have on host plant-mycorrhizae symbiosis. This viewpoint identifies the need for more research on the potential impact of sodicity on mycorrhizal species diversity, functionality and benefits to crop growth. Changes in agronomic management strategies to maximize mycorrhizal symbiosis benefits are suggested, especially for those plant species, like cotton, that are highly reliant on mycorrhizal symbiosis for optimal growth and nutrient uptake.
Article
Future climate projections and impact assessments are critical in evaluating the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop production. Climate change impact assessment in combination with crop, climate models under different climate change scenarios is uncertain and it is challenging to select an appropriate climate scenario. This study quantifies the uncertainty associated with projected climate change impacts on cotton yield in Punjab, Pakistan using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) under high and moderate representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) at near-term (2010–2039) and mid-century (2040–2069) time spans. Cropping System Model (CSM) CROPGRO-Cotton (DSSAT v 4.6) was calibrated and evaluated with field experiment data collected under arid/semi-arid climatic conditions. Enormous variation was observed in GCMs climatic variables, which were therefore classified into different categories. According to mean ensemble of 29 GCMs, there is a projected increase in seasonal average temperature 1.52 °C and 2.60 °C in RCP 4.5 and 1.57 °C and 3.37 °C in RCP 8.5 scenario as compared to the seasonal baseline (31.48 °C) in near-term (2010–2039) and mid-century (2040–2069), respectively. Maximum consensus by GCMs revealed the increase in temperature of 1.2–1.8 °C and 2.2 to 3.1 °C in RCP 4.5 scenario while 1.4–2.2 °C and 3.0–3.9 °C increase is expected under RCP 8.5 for near term and mid-century time periods, respectively. Similarly, rainfall changes are expected −8% to 15% and −5 to 17% in RCP 4.5 scenario while −8 to 22% and −2 to 20% change is expected under RCP 8.5 scenario in near term and mid-century time periods, respectively. Seed cotton yield (SCY) are projected to decrease by 8% on average by 2039 and 20% by 2069under the RCP 4.5 scenario relative to the baseline (1980–2010). Mean seed cotton yield is projected to decrease by 12% and 30% on average under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Uncertainties were observed in GCMs projections and RCPs due to variations in climatic variables projections. GCMs, GFDL-ESM2M (45% and 35%), GFDL-ESM2G (28% and 43%) and MIROC-ESM (39% and 70%) predicted the higher mean SCY reduction ensemble of cultivars than others under emission scenario of 4.5 in near term and mid-century, respectively. Lower SCY reduction was revealed in CCSM4, HADGEM2-CC, HADGEM2-ES, INMCM4 and CNRM-CM5 due to mild behavior of climatic variables especially temperature under RCP 4.5 in the near-term and mid-century. High reduction in mean SCY (16%–19%) is expected in CMCC-CMS, IPSL-CM5B-LR, GISS-E2-H, GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-ESM2G under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, under the same scenario, mean SCY increases by 1% in HADGEM2-ES and by 4% in HADGEM2-CC relative to the baseline yield (4147 kg ha⁻¹). GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-ESM2G are hot and dry while HADGEM2-ES and HADGEM2-CC are hot but wet, resulting in less cotton yield loss. MIROC-ESM and GFDL-ESM2G projected a severe reduction in mean SCY (70% and 69%) due to a steep increase in maximum and minimum temperature (6.97 °C and 4.38 °C, 4.91 °C and 3.70 °C), respectively and sever reduction in rainfall by mid-century and may call worse case scenarios. Climate models like, CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, INMCM4, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, ACCESS1-0, BNU-ESM and MIROC5 are found less uncertain and showed stable behavior. Therefore, these models can be used for climate change impact assessment for other crops in the region. Adaptation management options like five weeks early sowing than current (10-May), increasing nitrogen fertilization (30%), higher planting density (18% for spreading and 30% for erect type cultivars) and 17% enhanced genetic potential of cultivars would compensate the negative impacts of climate change on cotton crop. This study provide valuable understandings and direction for cotton management options under climate change scenarios. This multi-model and multi-scenario analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in temperature and precipitation, cotton yield and potential management options under changing climate scenarios in arid to semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab-Pakistan.
Article
AquaCrop is a model of crop growth for predicting responses to various scenarios such as climates and irrigation strategies. Few studies, however, have assessed the applicability of AquaCrop for cotton under film-mulched drip irrigation in salt-affected soil. The objectives of this study were to test AquaCrop performance and to determine the appropriate irrigation amounts for cotton under several scenarios of initial soil-water content (SWC) and soil salinity for two typical soils in a saline region of southern Xinjiang of China with film-mulched drip irrigation. A four-year irrigation experiment was conducted in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 growing seasons for cotton, covering full (100%), over (115 and 145% of full) and deficit (55–90% of full) irrigation treatments. Based on the recommended parameters for cotton in AquaCrop manual, the model was calibrated using 2016 data sets and validated using the data sets from the other three years. Simulations of canopy cover, soil water storage of the root zone and aboveground biomass fitted well with the field observations with coefficient of determination r² > 0.77 and the index of agreement d > 0.92 and slightly underestimated yield. As for soil salinity, the model gave a reliable simulation for less than 80% of full irrigation treatments, while underestimated for over 80% of full irrigation treatments. Overall, AquaCrop can be used as a feasible tool to predict cotton growth response to water under film-mulched drip irrigation in this region. According to the principle of high yield and WUE, the simulation results showed that the appropriate irrigation amounts were recommended at 358–457 mm for silty loam and 406–462 mm for sandy loam in this region, which can provide a reference for irrigation optimization under film-mulched drip irrigation in southern Xinjiang and other similar regions.
Article
Crop growth simulation models can address a variety of agricultural problems, but their use to directly assist in-season irrigation management decisions is less common. Confidence in model reliability can be increased if models are shown to provide improved in-season management recommendations, which are explicitly tested in the field. The objective of this study was to compare the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model (with recently updated ET routines) to a well-tested FAO-56 irrigation scheduling spreadsheet by (1) using both tools to schedule cotton irrigation during 2014 and 2015 in central Arizona and (2) conducting a post-hoc simulation study to further compare outputs from these tools. Two replications of each irrigation scheduling treatment and a water-stressed treatment were established on a 2.6 ha field. Irrigation schedules were developed on a weekly basis and administered via an overhead lateral-move sprinkler irrigation system. Neutron moisture meters were used weekly to estimate soil moisture status and crop water use, and destructive plant samples were routinely collected to estimate cotton leaf area index (LAI) and canopy weight. Cotton yield was estimated using two mechanical cotton pickers with differing capabilities: (1) a two-row picker that facilitated manual collection of yield samples from 32 m ² areas and (2) a four-row picker equipped with a sensor-based cotton yield monitoring system. In addition to statistical testing of field data via mixed models, the data were used for post-hoc reparameterization and fine-tuning of the irrigation scheduling tools. Post-hoc simulations were conducted to compare measured and simulated evapotranspiration, crop coefficients, root zone soil moisture depletion, cotton growth metrics, and yield for each irrigation treatment. While total seasonal irrigation amounts were similar among the two scheduling tools, the crop model recommended more water during anthesis and less during the early season, which led to higher cotton fiber yield in both seasons (p < 0.05). The tools calculated cumulative evapotranspiration similarly, with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) less than 13%; however, FAO-56 crop coefficient (K c ) plots demonstrated subtle differences in daily evapotranspiration calculations. Root zone soil moisture depletion was better calculated by CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton, perhaps due to its more complex soil profile simulation; however, RMSEs for depletion always exceeded 20% for both tools and reached 149% for the FAO-56 spreadsheet in 2014. CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton simulated cotton LAI, canopy weight, canopy height, and yield with RMSEs less than 21%, while the FAO-56 spreadsheet had no capability for such outputs. Through field verification and thorough post-hoc data analysis, the results demonstrated that the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model with updated FAO-56 ET routines could match or exceed the accuracy and capability of an FAO-56 spreadsheet tool for cotton water use calculations and irrigation scheduling. Keywords: Cottonseed, Crop coefficient, Decision support, Depletion, Evapotranspiration, Fiber, Management, Simulation, Soil moisture, Yield.