Experiment FindingsPDF Available

The Global Warming Challenge: Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Abstract

The Global Warming Challenge, aka The Climate Bet (theclimatebet.com), is a record of an experiment to test the relative accuracy of Al Gore's 2007 dangerous man made global warming "tipping point" alarming projection relative to the no-change (no-trend) forecasts of Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) proposed by Scott Armstrong in his challenge to Al Gore to take a bet on his claim that temperatures would become dangerously warmer over the next decade. Gore refused the bet and refused to provide specific forecasts, so we used the IPCC's then "business as usual" +3C-per-century relatively mild projection to stand for Mr Gore's tipping point. In the event, the actual temperatures were closer to the no-change than they were to the warming projection. We then extended The Challenge experiment for another decade (till end-2027) in order to further test the alternative hypotheses on which forecasting model will provide the most accurate forecasts of temperatures over the 21st century. This document will be updated periodically (mostly monthly) as new data comes in, and is directly accessible via theclimatebet.com.
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to support global warming -or any that would support negative effects from global warming -or any to support the notion that efforts to reduce man-made CO2 would have a favorable impact on the climate. See Green & Armstrong's paper "Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts
to support global warming -or any that would support negative effects from global warming -or any to support the notion that efforts to reduce man-made CO2 would have a favorable impact on the climate. See Green & Armstrong's paper "Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts," Energy & Environment 18 (2007), 995-1019.
14 pm Q&A With Senator Boxer Below are excerpts from the Q&A session between Armstrong and Senator Boxer. Full Text of Examining Threats and Protections For the Polar Bear. Senator Boxer. Now, Dr
  • Meanwhile
Meanwhile, Professor Armstrong awaits Mr. Gore's response to the revised challenge. February 14th, 2008 at 9:14 pm Q&A With Senator Boxer Below are excerpts from the Q&A session between Armstrong and Senator Boxer. Full Text of Examining Threats and Protections For the Polar Bear. Senator Boxer. Now, Dr. Scott, you are a Ph.D. in what? Dr. Armstrong.
I went to MIT, so I basically had three areas, one was economics, the other was social psychology and the other was marketing
  • Mr
  • Armstrong
Mr. Armstrong. I went to MIT, so I basically had three areas, one was economics, the other was social psychology and the other was marketing.
No, I am bringing my forecasting methods experience
  • Mr
  • Armstrong
Mr. Armstrong. No, I am bringing my forecasting methods experience.
That is what we analyzed. But I think that is an advantage for me
  • Mr
  • Armstrong
Mr. Armstrong. That is what we analyzed. But I think that is an advantage for me __
Gore Dodges Repeated Calls to Debate Global Warming" covers the increasing numbers of skeptics who have challenged Bush
  • Bonner Cohen
  • Daily
Bonner Cohen's article on TCS Daily, "Gore Dodges Repeated Calls to Debate Global Warming" covers the increasing numbers of skeptics who have challenged Bush, including Armstrong. Does Scott Armstrong's reply:
Thank you for your reply. I will mail a copy of the book to Mr
  • Kathryn Dear
  • Anker
Dear Kathryn Anker, Thank you for your reply. I will mail a copy of the book to Mr. Gore that address.
Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several "tipping points" that could -within as little as ten years -make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet's habitability for human civilization
Scott Armstrong said that he selected ten years because he wanted to be pretty sure that he would be around to see how things turned out. Interestingly, this fits well with Gore's position, as stated in his book, Assault on Reason (page 204): "Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several "tipping points" that could -within as little as ten years -make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet's habitability for human civilization." July 27th, 2007 at 5
The Assault on Reason
  • Al Gore
Gore, Al (2007). The Assault on Reason. New York: Penguin. ISBN 1594201226. July 24th, 2007 at 6
Chorus does not justify climate prophecies
  • Green Armstrong
Armstrong and Green's work was featured in the Sydney Morning Herald's July 7, 2007 article, "Chorus does not justify climate prophecies" by Michael Duffy: