Economic Growth In The Conditions Of Digitalization In The EU Countries

Abstract

The article discusses the dynamics of economic development based on the level of digitalization of the countries. Economic development is evaluated through the dynamics of GDP changes. Digitalization level is evaluated through the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which is calculated on a regular basis by the European Commission. Object of study – 28 EU‑member countries. The hypothesis of the investigation: a high level of digitalization leads to an acceleration of economic growth on national level. This hypothesis did not find any statistically significant confirmation. Thus, we can conclude that the level of the economy digitalization at the present stage of development of technologies and institutions in the EU countries does not have a decisive effect on the rate of economic growth.

Full text

Volumen:38-3(1) // ISSN: 1133-3197
Monografico
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25115/eea.v38i3%20(1).4041
Economic Growth In The Conditions Of Digitalization In The
EU Countries
OLEKSANDR VYSHNEVSKYI1, IHOR STASHKEVYCH2, OLENA SHUBNA3, SVETLANA BARKOVA4
1Department of Regulatory Policy and Entrepreneurship, INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS OF THE
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF UKRAINE, UKRAINE. E-mail: vishnevskiy_o@nas.gov.ua
2Department of Computer Information Technologies, DONBASS STATE ENGINEERING ACADEMY, UKRAINE.
E-mail: stashkevich_dgma@ukr.net
3Department of Management, DONBASS STATE ENGINEERING ACADEMY, UKRAINE.
E-mail: shubnaalena@gmail.com
4Department of Management, DONBASS STATE ENGINEERING ACADEMY, UKRAINE.
E-mail: sveta-barkova@ukr.net
ABSTRACT
The article discusses the dynamics of economic development based on the level of digitalization of the countries.
Economic development is evaluated through the dynamics of GDP changes. Digitalization level is evaluated
through the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which is calculated on a regular basis by the European
Commission. Object of study – 28 EU-member countries. The hypothesis of the investigation: a high level of
digitalization leads to an acceleration of economic growth on national level. This hypothesis did not find any
statistically significant confirmation. Thus, we can conclude that the level of the economy digitalization at the
present stage of development of technologies and institutions in the EU countries does not have a decisive effect
on the rate of economic growth.
Keywords: digitalization; GDP; DESI; EU.
JEL classification: O11, O14, O33, O52
Recibido: 21 de Octubre de 2020
Aceptado: 25 de Noviembre de 2020

Oleksandr Vyshnevskyi, Ihor Stashkevych, Olena Shubna, Svetlana Barkova
2
1. Introduction
Problems associated with the digitalization of the economy occupy leading positions on the agenda
of governments, business and society. Technology companies Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and
Facebook, which are the products of the digital revolution of recent decades, have a total capitalization
above $5 billion (at the beginning of 2020).
The country of origin of all these companies is the United States. Also, there are two more
technology companies from China (Alibaba, Tencent) in the top-10 of the world ranking by market
capitalization. Despite the fact that the European Union is among the leading economic centers of the
world (along with the USA and China), there are no European companies in this list, even though, the
EU defines the digitalization of the economy as one of its development priorities, as evidenced by
strategic-level documents adopted over the past decade.
“A Digital Agenda for Europe” was adopted ten years ago. According to this document “The overall
aim of the Digital Agenda is to deliver sustainable economic and social benefits from a digital single
market based on fast and ultra-fast Internet and interoperable applications” [European Commission,
2010, p.3]. Five years later, in continuation of the Digital Agenda for Europe, the European Commission
adopted “A Digital Single Market Strategy for Europe”, which states that “Europe has the capabilities
to lead in the global digital economy but we are currently not making the most of them. Fragmentation
and barriers that do not exist in the physical Single Market are holding the EU back. Bringing down
these barriers within Europe could contribute an additional EUR 415 billion to European GDP”
[European Commission, 2015, p.3]. Europe plans to become a leader in the global digital economy,
considering that “data has become an essential resource for economic growth, job creation and
societal progress. The value of the EU data economy was estimated at EUR 257 billion in 2014, or 1.85%
of EU GDP. This increased to EUR 272 billion in 2015, or 1.87% of EU GDP (year-on-year growth of
5.6%). The same estimate predicts that, if policy and legal framework conditions for the data economy
are put in place in time, its value will increase to EUR 643 billion by 2020, representing 3.17% of the
overall EU GDP.” [European Commission, 2015, p.2].
Despite the constant digitalization of the EU economy, the rate of economic growth is inferior to
both China and the United States. For example, in China the average GDP growth rate in 2014-2018 is
6.86%, in the USA – 2.39%, and in the EU-28 – only 2.12% [World Bank, 2019]. Based on this, an
important scientific and practical task arises: to study the economic aspects of digitalization within the
EU itself.
2. Literature Review
A lot of diverse studies are devoted to the issues of digitalization of the EU economy, the formation
of the Digital Single Market, the connection between digitalization and economic growth [Alm et al.,
2016; Stavytskyy et al., 2019; Kumar, 2019; Micic, 2017; Kos-Łabędowicz & Urbanek, 2016; Folea,
2018].
Researchers at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) argue that the Digital Single Market shows large
potential for growth. In their analysis, they distinguish two groups for comparison. The first group
called “Digital frontrunners” included 9 countries: Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland,
Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. The second group, under the name EU “Big 5”,
included: Germany, France, the UK, Spain, and Italy. It was predicted that the economy in the countries
of the Digital frontrunners group would grow at a rate of 2.25 to 3.1% per year and would grow by 38%
during 6 years (from 2014 to 2020). Meanwhile, GDP of the EU Big 5 countries would grow more slowly
(from 1.9 to 2.25% per year) and would increase by only 18% [Alm et al., 2016, p.16]. It is also shown
that the share of digital GDP in total GDP in EU Big 5 countries is less than in Digital frontrunners
countries (5.1% against 8% in 2014 and 6.5% against 10% in 2020). [Alm et al., 2016, p.13]. This analysis
shows that in larger countries there is a lower level of digitalization of the economy and lower rates of
further economic development. Additional verification of statistical data is required.

Economic growth in the conditions of digitalization in the EU countries
3
Stavytskyy’s research analyses “the influence of the consumption index growth by the purchasing
power parity and unemployment among the active population on the structural units of DESI (the
Digital Economy and Society Index)” [Stavytskyy et al., 2019, p.245]. The research “confirmed that a
more prosperous society leads to more advanced digital services. Each additional 1% increase in
consumption leads to an increase in DESI by 0.2” and “the European countries with high
unemployment rate could increase DESI in the near future through fighting unemployment”
[Stavytskyy et al., 2019, p.257]. These results are quite expected. The more people work, the more
they consume, including digital services, that leads to higher the level of digitalization of the economy.
However, this study bypasses the impact of digitalization on economic growth. It is fundamentally
different to pose the question “In what degree is it advisable to purposefully invest in digitalization to
ensure accelerated economic growth?” According to some analysts, “US $ 1 put towards digital
technology investment increased GDP by US $ 20, in the past 30 years, whereas the same amount put
towards non-digital investment increased GDP by just US $ 3” [Kumar, 2019]. Consequently, it can be
hypothesized that investments in digitalization lead to an increase in the digitalization level of the
economy, which in turn provides accelerated economic growth. Digital Agenda for Europe and Digital
Single Market Strategy for Europe are subject to the logic of this hypothesis.
But in other studies, this correlation is being questioned. “Although there are researches, reports
and studies that associate high GDP per capita with high ICT investment and spending there is no
adequate study which completely confirms that hypothesis. Based on that, this correlation could be
the result of other economic processes and public policies. Therefore, there is a reasonable level of
doubt that high ICT investment has unreasonable impact on GDP per capita. However, technological
map of Europe identifies that those countries with high level of ICT investment are those countries
that also have high GDP per capita” [Micic, 2017, p.146].
When analyzing the digitalization level of the EU economies, expressed through the Digital
Economy and Society Index (DESI) simultaneously with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita
[Kos-Łabędowicz & Urbanek, 2016, p.2676] we can see linear correlation between the degree of
economic development and the level of digitalization.
In general, researchers agree that the processes of digitalization should have a tangible positive
impact on economic growth. However, the question of the digitalization impact on the pace of
economic growth is not fully explored.
Given the results of previous studies, the aim of the article is to assess economic growth in context
of digitalization in the EU countries. This involves verification the hypothesis that a high level of
digitalization and a relative acceleration of digitalization lead to faster economic growth. The EU
countries are selected as the object of the research. They share Digital Single Market, have a single
labor and capital market, and also, they have common institutional environment. This allows us to
consider comparable digitalization processes that should have a comparable economic effect.
3. Methodology
As a tool for measuring economic development, we have chosen GDP, which despite the criticism
of prominent economists and laureates of The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences such as
Stiglitz, J and Sen, A, [Stiglitz et al., 2010] remains the main and widely used economic indicator. This
indicator is regularly calculated by European Statistical Office (Eurostat) [Eurostat, 2020].
9 indices were analyzed that characterize the digitalization level of individual countries: (1) The ICT
Development Index (IDI), which is published by the United Nations International Telecommunication
Union, it is a specialized agency of the United Nations that is responsible for issues connected with
information and communication technologies [International Telecommunication Union, 2018]; (2) The
Digital Adoption Index (DAI), which is calculated by the World Bank [World Bank, 2016]; (3) The Digital
Economy and Society Index (DESI), that is prepared by European Commission [European Commission,
2019]; (4) The IMD World Digital Competitiveness Ranking (WDCR), that is calculated by IMD World
Competitiveness Center [IMD World Competitiveness Center, 2019]; (5) The Enabling Digitalization

Oleksandr Vyshnevskyi, Ihor Stashkevych, Olena Shubna, Svetlana Barkova
4
Index (EDI), that is prepared by insurance and consulting company Euler Hermes [Euler Hermes, 2019];
(6) The Digital Country Index (DCI) by a Spanish consulting company Bloom Consulting [Bloom
Consulting, 2017]; (7) The Government Artificial Intelligence Readiness Index (GAIRI) by Oxford Insights
and the International Development Research Centre [Miller & Stirling, 2019], (8) The Networked
Readiness Index (NRI), which is published by World Economic Forum [Baller et al., 2016]; (9) The
Composite I-distance Indicator (CIDI) that is calculated by group of scientists from University of
Belgrade [Milošević et al., 2018].
Three criteria were developed to select the index most relevant to this study. The first criterion is
the status of the organization that calculates the index. If it is an internationally recognized institution,
then the index gets 1 score (otherwise – 0 scores). The second criterion concerns the focus on the
object of study (European Union) [Podgorna et al., 2020]. If the index is focused on the assessment of
the EU member states, then the index gets 1 score (otherwise - 0 scores). The third criterion relates to
the availability of data for the last 2 years (2018-2019). If the index was calculated at least once in
2018-2019, then the index gets 1 score (otherwise - 0 scores). According to the first criterion, IDI, DAI
and DESI, which are calculated by the UN, World Bank and European Commission, received points.
According to the second criterion, only DESI received the score. The remaining indices do not focus on
the EU, their work has a global nature. According to the third criterion, DESI, WDCR, EDI and GAIRI
received points. Thus, the largest number of points (3 points) was received only by the DESI (Table 1).
Therefore, it is DESI which is used as a tool for assessing the digitalization level of the EU countries.
Table 1. Prioritization of digitalization indexes*
#
Name of
index
Criterion
Total
score
Organization
status
Focus on the
EU
Existence of
calculation in
last two years
1
IDI
1
0
0
1
2
DAI
1
0
0
1
3
DESI
1
1
1
3
4
WDCR
0
0
1
1
5
EDI
0
0
1
1
6
DCI
0
0
0
0
7
GAIRI
0
0
1
1
8
NRI
0
0
0
0
9
CIDI
0
0
0
0
* Source: compiled by the authors
A comparative and correlation analysis was used to assess the degree of relation of the digitalization
level of the countries with the rates of their economic growth.
4. Results and Discussion
According to DESI dynamics in the EU, there is a continuous spreading of the digitalization to deeper
levels for all 5 components of the index (Connectivity, Human Capital, Use of Internet Services,
Integration of Digital Technology, Digital Public Services). The top-5 leading EU countries in
digitalization are Sweden, Netherlands, Finland, Denmark and Luxembourg. The five outsider countries
include Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece.
The leaders in average GDP growth rates are Ireland, Malta, Romania, Poland and Hungary. The last
5 positions in average GDP growth rates are held by Belgium, Finland, France, Italy and Greece. As it
appears from this initial analysis, the leaders in the field of digitalization and in the field of economic
growth do not coincide substantially (Table 2). Of the top-5 countries in digitalization, none is
represented among the top-5 by GDP growth rate. Moreover, Finland is among the outsiders by GDP
growth (on average 1.52% per year in 2014-2018).

Economic growth in the conditions of digitalization in the EU countries
5
Table 2. Real GDP growth rate and rank of DESI*
#
Country
Real GDP growth rate, %
Rank DESI
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1
Austria
0,7
1
2,1
2,5
2,4
12
13
12
12
12
2
Belgium
1,6
2
1,5
2
1,5
9
9
7
7
9
3
Bulgaria
1,9
4
3,8
3,5
3,1
27
27
26
27
26
4
Croatia
-0,1
2,4
3,5
3,1
2,7
21
20
20
20
21
5
Cyprus
-1,9
3,4
6,7
4,4
4,1
23
23
21
22
22
6
Czechia
2,7
5,3
2,5
4,4
2,8
17
14
17
15
17
7
Denmark
1,6
2,3
3,2
2
2,4
2
1
1
1
4
8
Estonia
3
1,8
2,6
5,7
4,8
7
7
9
9
7
9
Finland
-0,4
0,6
2,6
3,1
1,7
3
2
2
2
3
10
France
1
1,1
1,1
2,3
1,7
14
15
15
14
16
11
Germany
2,2
1,7
2,2
2,5
1,5
10
11
11
11
13
12
Greece
0,7
-0,4
-0,2
1,5
1,9
26
26
27
26
28
13
Hungary
4,2
3,8
2,2
4,3
5,1
22
22
22
23
23
14
Ireland
8,6
25,2
3,7
8,1
8,2
11
10
10
10
8
15
Italy
0
0,8
1,3
1,7
0,8
25
24
24
24
24
16
Latvia
1,9
3,3
1,8
3,8
4,6
19
19
19
19
18
17
Lithuania
3,5
2
2,6
4,2
3,6
18
18
18
18
14
18
Luxembourg
4,3
4,3
4,6
1,8
3,1
5
5
5
5
5
19
Malta
8,8
10,9
5,8
6,7
7
8
8
8
8
10
20
Netherlands
1,4
2
2,2
2,9
2,6
4
4
4
3
2
21
Poland
3,3
3,8
3,1
4,9
5,1
24
25
25
25
25
22
Portugal
0,8
1,8
2
3,5
2,4
16
17
14
17
19
23
Romania
3,4
3,9
4,8
7,1
4,4
28
28
28
28
27
24
Slovakia
2,8
4,8
2,1
3
4
20
21
23
21
20
25
Slovenia
2,8
2,2
3,1
4,8
4,1
15
16
16
16
15
26
Spain
1,4
3,8
3
2,9
2,4
13
12
13
13
11
27
Sweden
2,7
4,4
2,4
2,4
2,2
1
3
3
4
1
28
UK
2,6
2,4
1,9
1,9
1,3
6
6
6
6
6
* Source: Eurostat [Eurostat, 2020] and European Commission [European Commission, 2019]
Poland and Romania, being in the group with the lowest level of digitalization, simultaneously enter
the number of countries with the highest average GDP growth rates (Poland – 4.04% per year, Romania
– 4.72% per year). Italy and Greece occupy last positions by both digitalization and economic growth.
It is important to note that 4 largest EU economies (Germany, France, the UK, Italy) not only have
lower average GDP growth rates than EU-28, but also predominantly occupy positions in the middle of
the list by digitalization in 2014-2018 (Germany – 10th-13th positions; France –14th-16th positions).
Italy is stably at the end of the list (24th-25th place). And only the United Kingdom consistently takes
6th place in the DESI rank.
Having examined individual groups of countries, we can proceed to the overall analysis of all the EU
members together. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient indicates the absence of a declared
relation between Real GDP growth rate and rank of DESI (Table 3). The coefficient is close to zero, and
its value changes from plus to minus and vice versa in different years.
Table. 3. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between real GDP growth rate and rank of DESI in
2014-2018*
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
The Spearman's rank
correlation coefficient
0,083
-0,034
0,007
-0,282
-0,227
* Source: compiled by the authors

Oleksandr Vyshnevskyi, Ihor Stashkevych, Olena Shubna, Svetlana Barkova
6
The scatter plot between the ranks of the digitalization level and the rate of GDP change in 2018
(Figure1) indicates the absence of a functional dependence and graphically confirms that the values of
the correlation coefficient is about 0. Similar results were obtained when building the scatter plots
according to the data of 2014-2017. Under such conditions, conducting a regression analysis does not
make sense.
Figure1. Scatter plot between Real GDP growth rate and rank of DESI in 2018
Thus, the hypothesis that the “high level of digitalization of the country leads to its accelerated
economic growth” is not statistically confirmed.
It remains to evaluate the impact of country’s relative progress in digitalization on the rate of its
GDP change. Despite the fact that the values of the Spearman’s autocorrelation coefficient with a lag
of 1 year as an observation period range from 0.978-0.993, during five years some countries moved up
in the rating, while others fell down. Therefore, the differences between the DESI ranks in 2018 in
comparison to 2014 were calculated. The range of their fluctuations varies from -4 to +3. The graph of
the distribution function of these changes (deviations) corresponds to the graph of the normal
distribution (Figure 2). It indicates the normality of distribution of the DESI rank difference for the
period under consideration and the absence of anomalies.
Figure 2. Plot of distribution of DESI rank differences in 2018 and 2014
The largest progress in the DESI rating recorded is connected to Lithuania (+4 positions from 18th
in 2014 to 14th in 2018) and Ireland (+3 positions from 11th in 2014 to 8th in 2018). The greatest
regression recorded is related to Germany and Portugal, which shifted 3 positions down. Germany
from 10th to 13th, and Portugal from 16th to 19th. At the same time, the average annual GDP growth
in Lithuania was 3.18%, in Ireland – 10.76%, Germany – 2.02%, Portugal – 2.1%. However, the overall
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for the entire sample between the average GDP growth for
2014-2018 and the change in the DESI index in 2018 relative to 2014 is 0.25. We can see a weak positive
linear dependence. Thus, the hypothesis, that relative (relative to other countries) progress in
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
DESI rank
GDP rank
2
7
11
6
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
[-4;-3] [-2;-1] 0 [1;2] [3;4]

Economic growth in the conditions of digitalization in the EU countries
7
digitalization leads to accelerated economic growth, cannot be considered fully proven. Although it is
partially confirmed in the “tails” of the sample by the example of Lithuania, Ireland, Germany, Portugal.
The results can be interpreted as follows. First of all, no statistically significant evidence was found
that the relatively high level of digitalization of the country and its accelerated growth provide high
rates of economic growth. Consequently, despite high expectations, the role of the digitalization of the
economy in ensuring economic growth has not become decisive yet.
The reason for the EU lagging behind in economic growth rates from China and the United States
may be internal imbalances between the EU member states, for example, when leaders in digitalization
do not show high rates of economic growth. As a result, the question arises, what level of investments
in digitalization is an effective tool to accelerate economic growth in the short-term prospects.
The cost-effectiveness of digitalization at the micro level is not extending to the national level. This
may mean that the productive forces forming within the framework of the sixth wave of innovation
cannot at the moment reach their full potential in the current production relations (institutional
environment).
5. Conclusion
Digitalization of the economy remains one of the EU development priorities. The action of a number
of high-level documents adopted by the European Commission is aimed at ensuring digitalization of
EU economy and creating the Digital Single Market. The result of this activity is a continuous increase
in the average digitalization level of the EU member states. At the same time, the digitalization process
is proceeding quite evenly: countries leaders and countries outsiders do not change dramatically. So
for five years of observation, only four countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands) succeed
each other in the first four positions of the DESI rating. A similar situation is at the bottom of the rating.
The last four lines of the ranking are Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania. However, the average GDP
growth rates for the reporting period in Poland, Bulgaria and Romania are higher than in Denmark,
Finland, Sweden and Netherlands. Against this background, the absence of a positive significant
correlation between real GDP growth rate and the rank of DESI in 2014-2018 is logical.
At the same time, countries that demonstrate relatively significant progress in the digitalization
rating on average have higher rates of economic growth. However, this relationship, expressed in
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, is weak. Thus, spreading of digitalization does not
substantially accelerate economic growth. There is no statistically significant evidence of the positive
impact of digitalization on the economic growth.
The results obtained necessitate further research. First of all, a further study of the impact of
digitalization on macroeconomic indicators is needed. Secondly, it is necessary to study and develop
mechanisms and tools to ensure the positive economic effects of digitalization. Thirdly, it is necessary
to study the priority directions of investing in digitalization to accelerate the economic growth.
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