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Global warming? It's a forecasting problem

Authors:

Abstract

The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist was used to evaluate IPCC “business as usual” global warming scenario and the Green, Armstrong & Soon no-change model forecasts. Consensus ratings by Armstrong and Green indicated that of 20 relevant Golden Rule Checklist guidelines: • the IPCC scenarios followed none • the no-change model followed 95%
Global warming?
It’s a forecasting problem



!"

#!!!$!
%%&'%(
)
*++,+-".#!!!.%'/0.&(1
What is evidence-based
(scientic) forecasting?
% 23,
%44'5experimental
67))8
9':
%&'
;3%9'/.
1)
,
Principles of Forecasting 2
$<
;/61all
=,
:
;,
6
&
The three-legged stool for climate
policy
0>6*
% ).global mean
temperatures
& 3netharmful eects 

3. net benet from proposed policies 

2
#!!,6
?long-term prediction of future climate states
is not possible”.
There are no scientic forecasts to support any leg.
@
Warming alarmists do not forecast,
they create “scenarios” via computer
simulations
% *
a. Stories…)?A
b. Biased8
/"-$&''%1
& ):
3
:3)
complex, uncertain situations 
*
 .,
) ,B&'.:
9
Application of the Forecasting
Audit to
global mean temperatures
2>,
.)

)"- 
#!!?)A)
*
C&D4
/?!)A
?2A1
.))
)<
(
Application of the Forecasting Audit to
polar bear policy
.
)*
9EF
&@F
G:*3?"
2HI
$A
Make sure forecasts are independent of politics
)
sharp and rapid fall
slow growth
"-/&''D1B

E
Golden Rule of Forecasting:
“Be Conservative” or
?2

A
H)
cumulative knowledge)*
%
&.)
?"02A
)&'%(
C
When to be conservative
All)8
especially*
% !:
& 
@ )*
)

D
Golden Rule of Forecasting
Checklist
Procedure: H&D
)
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%'4
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4
Golden Rule applied to IPCC
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"02!,#!!
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
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"0!,*
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;.95%
Don’t believe us? Rate them yourself and send us your ratings and
reasons!
%D(%.%4C(
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/KG1.('.5
'&9L!
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Simple Forecasting
>)
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@
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Jcomplexity)
/@&4C
1*
a) None:
)1 !:)&CF
?:* A)
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Simple Forecasting Checklist
ratings:
IPCC projections vs. no-change
forecasts
Our Average Compliance Ratings /F
1
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Do you own and send us your ratings and reasons!
08
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Validation over di4erent time-periods:
Similar results
22")!!/&'%91
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Why are complex methods
used
by global warming alarmists?
!:
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Analysis of previous
environmental alarms
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
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M&E)6
M
",&@
&'/@1
")
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