ArticlePublisher preview available

The effect of population shift on land cover change and illegal forest activities

Springer Nature
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Authors:
Yavuz Guloglu at Kastamonu University
Yavuz Guloglu
Alper Bulut at Kastamonu University
Alper Bulut
Arif Oguz Altunel at Kastamonu University
Arif Oguz Altunel
Mahmut Bayramoglu at Karadeniz Technical University
Mahmut Bayramoglu
Read publisher preview
Download citation
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract and Figures

Interaction between humans and forests has always been strong. Wood has been at the core of all humankind’s endeavors since the discovery of fire and learning how to fabricate it out of trees. The exploitation of forests has not been limited to the procurement of wood, but the concepts of sheltering, hunting, and protection have also been matured near or within the forests. This win-win situation intuitively attracted more and more people to this type of resource. As the human population has grown in forest villages, the pressure caused by the human on the forests has increased. Without active management of the forests, the situation has become so dire that uncontrolled and irregular utilization has started jeopardizing the existence of this resource. The objective of this study was to examine the changes in forest road, forestland cover, and forest crimes in the Daday Forest Enterprise (DFE) located in Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry, Turkey. The results indicated that the population in 51 forest villages was decreased from 1975 to 1990. This decrease was also apparent in all villages across the region during the 1990–2000 period and continued decreasing in 45 villages during the 2000–2016 period. The forestland cover was 57% in 1975, 44% in 2000, and 57% in 2016 while the density in the forest road kept increasing. A noticeable decrease in the forest-related crimes was also determined, and the results showed that effective forest management, consciousness, and conservation policies stopped the deterioration.
Figures - available from: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
A preview of this full-text is provided by Springer Nature.
Learn more
Content available from Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
The effect of population shift on land cover change
and illegal forest activities
Yavuz Guloglu &Alper Bulut &Arif Oguz Altunel &
Mahmut Muhammet Bayramoglu
Received: 12 June 2020 /Accepted: 10 December 2020 /Published online: 29 January 2021
Abstract Interaction between humans and forests has
always been strong. Wood has been at the core of all
humankind’s endeavors since the discovery of fire and
learning how to fabricate it out of trees. The exploitation
of forests has not been limited to the procurement of
wood, but the concepts of sheltering, hunting, and pro-
tection have also been matured near or within the for-
ests. This win-win situation intuitively attracted more
and more people to this type of resource. As the human
population has grown in forest villages, the pressure
caused by the human on the forests has increased. With-
out active management of the forests, the situation has
become so dire that uncontrolled and irregular utiliza-
tion has started jeopardizing the existence of this re-
source. The objective of this study was to examine the
changes in forest road, forestland cover, and forest
crimes in the Daday Forest Enterprise (DFE) located in
Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry, Turkey.
The results indicated that the population in 51 forest
villages was decreased from 1975 to 1990. This de-
crease was also apparent in all villages across the region
during the 1990–2000 period and continued decreasing
in 45 villages during the 2000–2016 period. The forest-
land cover was 57% in 1975, 44% in 2000, and 57% in
2016 while the density in the forest road kept increasing.
A noticeable decrease in the forest-related crimes was
also determined, and the results showed that effective
forest management, consciousness, and conservation
policies stopped the deterioration.
Keywords Forest villages .Forestland cover .Forest
crime .Population .Forest roads
Introduction
The new era, which started with the Industrial Revolu-
tion and accelerated the development of market econo-
my and technology, caused notable changes in the Eu-
ropean population figures and living standards. This was
when fossil fuel consumption rose incredibly. The in-
terest since then has shifted from fossil fuels to renew-
able energy alternatives, which caused the pressure on
forests and their derivatives. Although this pressure is
positively correlated with the increase in the regional or
global population (Demirbas 2001), the rising popula-
tion is not always responsible for forest loss and forest-
land degradation (Mather and Needle 2000). It becomes
possible to sustainably supply the demand of the
Environ Monit Assess (2021) 193: 99
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08802-4
Y. Guloglu
Kastamonu University Faculty of Economics and Administrative
Sciences, Kastamonu, Turkey
e-mail: yavuzguloglu@kastamonu.edu.tr
A. Bulut (*):A. O. Altunel
Kastamonu University Faculty of Forestry, Kastamonu, Turkey
e-mail: abulut@kastamonu.edu.tr
A. O. Altunel
e-mail: aoaltunel@kastamonu.edu.tr
M. M. Bayramoglu
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, Trabzon,
Turkey
e-mail: mahmud@ktu.edu.tr
#The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG part of Springer Nature 2021
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
... The relationship between forest cover and population shown by these correlations mirrors the findings of other studies, such as those by (Bayramoğlu & Kadıoğulları, 2018;Guloglu et al., 2021). This consistency across studies suggests a broader pattern in which demographic changes are closely linked to changes in forest cover. ...
Temporal Analysis of Riparian Buffer Zones and Demographic Trends in the Coastal Districts of Kastamonu
Article
Full-text available
  • Sep 2024
Aim of study: This study investigates the temporal changes of forest areas within and outside the Riparian Buffer Zones (RBZs) and examines their correlation with demographic trends in the coastal districts of Kastamonu from 1987, 2000, and 2016 to assess how population dynamics influence forest cover. Area of study: The study was conducted in four coastal districts in northern Kastamonu province, Türkiye, covering approximately 1000 square kilometers and focusing on 153 forest villages. Material and methods: Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing data delineated and analyzed land cover and population changes. The study used Landsat imagery and population data to explore spatial and temporal dynamics within the RBZs Main results: The study found a significant increase in forest area from 1987 to 2000 and a subsequent decrease from 2000 to 2016, with these changes showing a weak but significant negative correlation with the declining local population. Research highlihts: The findings suggest that declining rural populations may reduce anthropogenic pressures on forests and pose challenges to effective forest management and conservation. The research highlights the need for sustainable strategies integrating demographic change with forest conservation efforts to maintain ecosystem services and biodiversity.
View
... Global accuracy index informs the possibility that a sample chosen at random within the classification is correct, as does the Kappa index (Cohen, 1960). Kappa is widely used to validate land use and land cover mapping (Ruiz Hernandez & Shi, 2018;Vale et al., 2018;Diniz et al., 2019;Guloglu et al., 2021). The Kappa coefficient associates a certain range of rating quality values that goes from less than zero (poor) to 0.81 to 1.0 (excellent) (Landis & Koch, 1977). ...
Characterization of the dynamics of the successional stages of the Amazon forest using Google Earth Engine
Article
Full-text available
  • Oct 2023
Aim of study: This study evaluates the potential of the Google Earth Engine tool, supported by fine-scale information obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, to apply and characterize the dynamics of the successional stages of the Amazon Forest in the state of Rondônia over ten years. Area of study: The study was carried out in the state of Rondônia located in the North Region of Brazil (Western Amazon). Material and methods: The data and its by-products were derived from the Landsat Level 1 - TOA collection of the United States Geological Survey, specifically Landsat 5 and 8. The mapping also used Phantom 4 Pro UAV images. We used the supervised classifier Random Forest to map the primary forest/advanced regeneration, medium regeneration, initial regeneration, and classes, and, subsequently, we crossed and quantified the successional advance and vegetation loss. Main results: It was observed that the state lost forest area even with the successional advance that occurred throughout the period, implying that the forest succession was insufficient in the face of forest deforestation. Research highlights: This study contributed to understanding the dynamics of the Amazon Forest, which goes through a process of deforestation and forest regeneration simultaneously.
View
... Kastamonu city is located in Northwest Anatolia Region of Turkey. Kastamonu city center is surrounded by forested passive green spaces and open and green areas making up 14% of the land in city center [26]. Settlements were constructed along the Karaçomak stream, which flows through the city with an axis. ...
Acoustic Environment of Urban Historical Places: A Case Study in Kastamonu, Turkey
Article
Full-text available
  • Jul 2021
The general aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significance of the acoustic environment in urban historical places, which represent intangible cultural heritage, and to emphasize the need for the spaces to have their own unique acoustic environment depending on their characteristics. Both sound pressure level measurements and sound classifications were conducted in three urban historical places to emphasize their effect on the character of the area. Based on the data obtained, noise maps were created. The results of the study indicated that there was no change in sound sources due to the similarity of past and present usage types of the three selected historical areas, and that sound sources as an element of cultural heritage in the area were preserved and survived to the present day as a consequence. The type of use, intensity of use, structural-plant density, and climatic change were found to be effective in determining the acoustic environment character. The continuity of sound sources, which are among the elements that constitute the identity in historical places in particular and can be considered as cultural heritage elements, and the harmony of these sound sources for the intended use of the space are the factors that should be taken into account in spatial planning and design.
View
Interactions Between Migration, Forest Crime, and Land Use Change in Tekirdağ, Türkiye
Article
Full-text available
  • Mar 2025
Aim of study: This study aims to investigate the interactions between land use classes, population change, and forest crimes in the Tekirdağ Forest Planning Unit for the period 2007-2023. Area of study: Tekirdağ was chosen as the case study area because it is one of the provinces that receive the most immigration in Türkiye. Material and method: Stand maps, population information, and forest crime numbers were obtained for use in the study. Land use classes for 2008 and 2016 were created using stand maps. Additionally, forest crime numbers for the 2002-2023 period and population data for the 2007-2023 period were provided. Changes in land use classes, population, and forest crimes were examined according to the relevant years, and the relationships between them were investigated. The relationships between population and forest crimes were determined by Pearson's correlation coefficient. Main results: The most significant changes in land use classes were determined as an increase of 6138.8 ha in broadleaf forests and a decrease of 13673.0 ha in agricultural areas. During the 2007-2023 period, the population increased continuously at variable rates. The relationships between annual population and forest crimes were examined in the 2007-2023 period, and it was determined that the highest relationship was negative between population and grazing crime (r=-0.641). Research highlights: In-migration in the study area and the decrease in the rural population have been effective in forest crimes committed in the region. In-migration has led to a decrease in grazing crime and an increase in individual occupation crimes in rural areas.
View
ROD YÖNTEMİ İLE PARKLARIN GÖRSEL PEYZAJ KALİTESİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: KASTAMONU ÖRNEĞİ
Article
  • Dec 2023
İnsanın doğa ile etkileşimiyle birlikte çevre ve peyzaj üzerinde insan kaynaklı değişimlerin yaşanması kaçınılmaz olmuştur. Bu değişimler peyzajın görselliğini ve görsel kalitesini etkileşmiştir. Görsel peyzaj kalitesi, peyzajla etkileşime giren bireylerin peyzaj hakkında olumlu veya olumsuz değerlendirmelerinin sonucunda ortaya çıkan öznel bir değer olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Kastamonu il merkezinden seçilen 5 adet parkın (Sinan Bey Parkı, Cevizli Park, Turhan Topçu Parkı, Kışla Parkı ve Güney Parkı) görsel kalitesinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma alanı olarak seçilen parklardan çekilen fotoğraflar Rekreasyonel Olanak Dağılımı (ROD) sınıflandırmasına (kentsel, yarı-doğal ve doğal) göre seçilmiştir. Bu fotoğrafların değerlendirilmesinde (1) doğallık, (2) tarihsellik, (3) peyzaj çeşitliliği, (4) uyum, (5) manzara güzelliği, (6) konfor, (7) okunabilirlik ve (8) bakım-düzen ölçüt olarak belirlenmiştir. Değerlendirmeler ise Kastamonu Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Peyzaj Mimarlığı Bölümü lisans ve yüksek lisans öğrencileri tarafından (n=100) çevrimiçi foto-anket uygulamasıyla 5’li Likert ölçeğinde (5: en yüksek- 1: en düşük) puanlanarak yapılmıştır. Yapılan çalışma sonucunda elde edilen foto-anket verilerine göre parkların görsel kalite değerlerine ulaşılmıştır. Doğal peyzaj elemanlarının yoğun olduğu alanların belirlenen görsel kalite ölçütlerine göre daha yüksek puan ortalamasına sahip oldukları, yapısal peyzaj elemanlarının ağırlıkta olduğu alanların ise daha düşük puan ortalamasına sahip oldukları belirlenmiştir. Parkların ROD’a göre sınıflandırılmış fotoğraflarına ve genel ortalama değerlerine bakıldığında genel yüzdelik puan ortalamalarında en yüksek puanı alan Sinan Bey Parkı (%53,51) olurken en düşük puanı alan Güney Parkı (%32,49) olmuştur.
View
A New Hierarchical Multiplication and Spectral Mixing Method for Quantification of Forest Coverage Changes Using Gaofen (GF)-1 Imagery in Zhejiang Province, China
Article
  • Jan 2023
The forest survey is a prerequisite or critical for ecological conservation. Spectral mixture analysis is an effective method to extract the forest coverage and its changes, however it is mostly applied to hyperspectral image data processing due primarily to the limit of the number of spectral bands. Therefore, a hierarchical multiplication (HM) model based on the hierarchical method and stepwise multiplication algorithm is proposed for forest coverage extraction using multispectral images. Within the process, the hierarchical method reduces the complexity of the problem to satisfy the SMA at each level, and the multiplication method transfers forest abundances among levels for the soft classification. Compared with Zhejiang Forest Bureau Reports, the HM method in this study extracted 98.43% of forests using the 16-m resolution Gaofen-1 (GF-1) wide field of view (WFV) data, which has a 95% correlation coefficient with results obtained by the 2-m resolution panchromatic / multispectral (PMS) data using the support vector machine (SVM) method. Zhejiang’s overall forest coverage was found to exceed 60% in 2019, with a standard deviation of 0.419 pixels. Densely covered forests are primarily distributed in mountains and hills, and have slightly increased from 2014 to 2019, while sparsely covered forests are mostly located in plains, basins, and valleys, and slightly have declined during the past five years. The forest coverage is mainly affected by topography, population, economy, and policies. The experiment indicates the combined use of HM and multispectral data can accurately extract forest cover changes and achieve similar results compared to more sophisticated classifications using higher precision/spectral band (hyperspectral) data.
View
Orman yakma suçuna ilişkin Yargıtay kararları üzerine bir incelemeA review on the decisions of the Supreme Court of Appeals regarding the crime of forest burning in Türkiye
Article
Full-text available
  • Jun 2023
Orman yakma suçu ve uygulanacak yaptırımlar, 6831 sayılı Orman Kanunu’nda düzenlenmiştir. Özellikle son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinden kaynaklanan etkilerin daha yoğun hissedilmesi ve Türkiye’de terör amaçlı yangın çıkarma eylemi de sıklıkla başvurulan bir suç olmasından dolayı orman yangınlarına ilişkin kanundaki düzenlemelerin önemi gittikçe artmaktadır. Yangının başlaması için gerekli olan yanıcı, yakıcı ve tutuşturucu unsurların bir araya gelmesiyle ortaya çıkan orman yangınları, kuraklık ve rüzgârın etkisiyle kısa sürede çok geniş alanlara yayılabilmektedir. Türkiye’de yaşanan orman yangınlarının yalnızca %2’si yıldırım düşmesi gibi doğal yollarla meydana gelmektedir. Geriye kalan %98’lik kısmında, insan faktörünün etkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle Orman Kanunu uyarınca orman yakma suçu ve unsurları ile 5237 sayılı Türk Ceza Kanunu (TCK)’ndaki yangına sebebiyet verme suçu, taksir ve kasıt ile işlenen orman yakma suçu ve 6098 sayılı Türk Borçlar Kanunu (TBK)’nun ilgili hükümleri bir arada değerlendirilecektir. Ardından orman yangınlarına sebebiyet verme şeklinde ortaya çıkan uyuşmazlıklara ilişkin yargı kararları incelenerek, orman yangınlarının ardından ortaya çıkan uyuşmazlıklara ilişkin yargısal süreç analiz edilmeye çalışılacaktır.
View
THE USE OF NATURE-BASED PATTERNS AS A TOOL IN THE INTERIOR ARCHITECTURE EDUCATION
Chapter
Full-text available
  • Mar 2023
Interior Architecture education is an educational discipline in which the experience-based learning that takes place in studios is at the center of the design concept. In this paper, it is planned to experience the basic design principles and elements that are required to be understood in the basic design course within the interior architecture education process, and to contribute to awakening and stimulating the minds of the students for various inventions thorugh raising awareness of nature-based learning. As a result of the pilot study designed for this purpose, an application-based flowchart is presented as a model for designing new patterns for basic design courses. In the creation of the model, the concept of pattern is researched in different disciplines within a broad framework in line with the principles of consistency and inclusiveness. The stages of creating the model include the stages of analyzing the pattern systematics based on abstraction in interior architecture basic education and reconstructing the systematic in a way that will increase the capacity to be used in the creation of new patterns. In line with these stages, it is aimed to define basic design elements such as point, line, plane, volume and basic design principles such as contrast, emphasis, repetition, balance, and rhythm in the formation principles of natural elements, and to systematize the same principles strategically to be used in the shaping of design patterns.
View
Urban forests near roads do not reduce gaseous air pollutant concentrations but have an impact on particles levels
Article
Full-text available
  • Feb 2017
  • LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN
The ability of urban vegetation to improve air quality for the benefit of urban residents is often considered fact since plants can absorb and capture air pollutants. However, there is little empirical evidence that urban air quality at the local scale is improved by the presence of, e.g. trees, especially in northern climatic regions. We studied the impact of urban forest vegetation on the levels of five types of air pollutants (NO2, ground-level O3, anthropogenic and biogenic VOCs, and particulate matter) in near-road environments during summer (June) using passive samplers in Helsinki, Finland. Concentrations of gaseous pollutants did not differ significantly between tree-covered and adjacent open areas, while particle pollutant levels were significantly lower in tree-covered areas than in adjacent open, treeless areas. Vegetation-related variables (canopy closure, tree number and size, and ground vegetation) did not explain differences in air quality. Our results suggest that the role of urban, mostly deciduous, vegetation is negligible in improving local air quality, in terms of the anthropogenic pollutants measured here, in northern climates. However, air particulate pollution, which is likely to be dominated by large-sized particles in our study, can be reduced by urban vegetation.
View
Spatiotemporal changes of land use patterns in high mountain areas of Northeast Turkey: a case study in Maçka
Article
Full-text available
High mountain forests (HMFs) have an important significance in forest ecosystems, but the benefits from such ecosystems have been compromised in recent years. In Turkey, HMFs constitute significant portions of Turkish forests because they cover 4 % of Turkey; 15 % of all Turkish forest areas are HMFs. The Eastern Black Sea region has a particular importance for HMFs due to its biological diversity and the rich presence of endemic species. This study analyzes the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of forest cover in HMF from 1973 to 2008 in the town of Maçka, which is located at the center of the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey. The spatial and temporal change patterns of land use are quantified by interpreting spatial data. Remote sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS), and a spatial pattern analysis program for categorical maps (FRAGSTATS) have been used for data collection, analysis, and presentation. The results showed that the HMF areas had biphasic growth from 1973 to 2008. Despite a net increase of 200.6 ha in forested areas between 1984 and 2008, there was an overall decrease from 1973 to 2008. The annual percentage of forestation for the forest areas within the study period was 0.04 % in Maçka. The amount of aggregated forest area fragments rose from 388 in 1973 to 711 in 2008. The increase in the HMF of Maçka can be explained to some extent by the change in the demographic structure of Maçka and its plateaus, which contributed to changes in the daily life of the population of Maçka and its villages, such as changes in annual incomes, their lifestyles, decrease in transhumance and stockbreeding, decrease in the time of dwelling on the plateaus, and changes in the traditional architectural style.
View
View
Analysis of Land Use Change and Forestation in Response to Demographic Movement and Reduction of Forest Crime
Article
  • Nov 2017
The sustainable management of natural resources requires a thorough analysis of the land-use and forest cover dynamics and the effective factors in the changes occurring in them. This study investigated the roles played by social factors in the temporal changes in land cover and deforestation within the Torul State Forest Enterprise in northeastern Turkey. Between 2005 and 2016, this area was examined in terms of forest crime, demographic movement and forest dynamics using the Geographic Information System (GIS). Major changes were observed in the temporal dynamics of the forested areas and their parameters, with an overall net increase of 3.26%. There was a productive forest area increase of 16.459 ha. Regenerated-young stand areas had increased because of the regeneration activities carried out over the period. This was partially due to decreased forest crime, decreased rural population and increased gross national product (GNP), which had been below Turkey's average.
View
Effects of road network on diversiform forest cover changes in the highest coverage region in China: An analysis of sampling strategies
Article
  • Sep 2016
Forest cover changes are of global concern due to their roles in global warming and biodiversity. However, many previous studies have ignored the fact that forest loss and forest gain are different processes that may respond to distinct factors by stressing forest loss more than gain or viewing forest cover change as a whole. It behooves us to carefully examine the patterns and drivers of the change by subdividing it into several categories. Our study includes areas of forest loss (4.8% of the study area), forest gain (1.3% of the study area) and forest loss and gain (2.0% of the study area) from 2000 to 2012 in Fujian Province, China. In the study area, approximately 65% and 90% of these changes occurred within 2000 m of the nearest road and under road densities of 0.6 km/km2, respectively. We compared two sampling techniques (systematic sampling and random sampling) and four intensities for each technique to investigate the driving patterns underlying the changes using multinomial logistic regression. The results indicated the lack of pronounced differences in the regressions between the two sampling designs, although the sample size had a great impact on the regression outcome. The application of multi-model inference indicated that the low level road density had a negative significant association with forest loss and forest loss and gain, the expressway density had a positive significant impact on forest loss, and the road network was insignificantly related to forest gain. The model including socioeconomic and biophysical variables illuminated potentially different predictors of the different forest change categories. Moreover, the multiple comparisons tested by Fisher's least significant difference (LSD) were a good compensation for the multinomial logistic model to enrich the interpretation of the regression results.
View
View
Biological and Ecological Effects of Oils
Chapter
  • Jan 1989
This chapter reviews the effects of hydrocarbons on the different groups of organisms that interact in freshwater aquatic ecosystems. Nett effects on ecosystems are considered in Chapter 8.
View
Roads and Their Major Ecological Effects
Article
  • Nov 1998
  • Annu Rev Ecol Systemat
Abstract A huge road network with vehicles ramifies across the land, representing a surprising frontier of ecology. Species-rich roadsides are conduits for few species. Roadkills are a premier mortality source, yet except for local spots, rates rarely limit population size. Road avoidance, especially due to traffic noise, has a greater ecological impact. The still-more-important barrier effect subdivides populations, with demographic and probably genetic consequences. Road networks crossing landscapes cause local hydrologic and erosion effects, whereas stream networks and distant valleys receive major peak-flow and sediment impacts. Chemical effects mainly occur near roads. Road networks interrupt horizontal ecological flows, alter landscape spatial pattern, and therefore inhibit important interior species. Thus, road density and network structure are informative landscape ecology assays. Australia has huge road-reserve networks of native vegetation, whereas the Dutch have tunnels and overpasses perforating road barriers to enhance ecological flows. Based on road-effect zones, an estimated 15–20% of the United States is ecologically impacted by roads.
View
Sustainable Water Resources Management
Article
  • Mar 2000
Defining and measuring sustainability is a major challenge. This article argues these limitations need not stop us from trying to identify and value the possible impacts of what we are doing, or are thinking about doing, over time periods much longer than the lives of our investments, or even of the lives of those of us living today. Sustainability is a relative concept that must be applied in an environment undergoing multiple changes, changes that are occurring over different temporal and spatial scales. We depend on our water resource systems for our survival and welfare. Yet no one expects them to be restored to, or survive in, their most productive pristine states in the face of increasing development pressures for land in their watersheds and for water in their streams, rivers, lakes, and aquifers. A continuing task of water resource planners and managers is to identify the multiple impacts and tradeoffs resulting from what we who are living today may wish to do for ourselves and our immediate children and what we can only guess our yet-to-be-born descendants may wish us to do, or not do, for them in some distant future. This task must involve professionals from other disciplines in a context much broader than just water management. Once these impacts and tradeoffs are identified, it is then up to the political process to make choices when they are in conflict. All of us need to be a part of this decision-making process.
View
Future of agricultural water management in Africa
Article
  • Jun 2014
The study is aimed at estimation of area equipped for irrigation in Americas in 2035 and 2060 using study of agricultural water management during 1962 to 2011. For this purpose, all necessary information was gathered from FAO of United Nations and their values were checked using World Bank Group (WBG) data base. Among all presented data in FAO database, 10 indexes were selected for importance and more availability basis for all the regions in Americas and analyzed for all 5 regions in the study area. These indexes are; permanent crops per cultivated area (%), rural population per total population (%), total economically active population in agriculture per total economically active population (%), human development index (HDI), national rainfall index (NRI) (mm/year), value added to gross domestic product (GDP) by agriculture (%), irrigation water requirement (mm/year), percent of total cultivated area drained, difference between NRI and irrigation water requirement (mm/year), and area equipped for irrigation per cultivated area (%). The amount of area equipped for irrigation per cultivated area (10 th index) was estimated for three different scenarios by the other 9 indexes. The results showed that trend of permanent crops per cultivated area (with the exception of Northern America), HDI, irrigation water requirement and percentage of total cultivated area drained is increasing and trend of rural population per total population, total economically active population in agriculture per total economically active population, value added to GDP by agriculture, and difference between NRI and irrigation water requirement is decreasing. The results also showed changes of area equipped for irrigation as 9.1 to 26.3% and 17.6 to 51.3% in 2035 and 2060, respectively.
View