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Trade, food security and climate change: conceptual linkages and policy implications

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Trade, food security
and climate change:
conceptual linkages and
policy implications
Background paper for
The State of Agricultural Commodity
Markets (SOCO) 2018
Trade,!food!security!
and!climate!change:!
conceptual!linkages!and!
policy!implications
Background!paper!for!
The!State!of!Agricultural!Commodity!
Markets!(SOCO)!2018
Andrea!Zimmermann,!Julian!Benda,!Heidi!Webber!and!Yaghoob!Jafari!
Food!and!Agriculture!Organization!of!the!United!Nations!
Rome,!2018!
Required citation:
Zimmermann, A., Benda, J., Webber, H. and Jafari, Y. 2018. Trade, food security and climate change: conceptual
linkages and policy implications. Rome, FAO. 48 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
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ISBN 978-92-5-131110-3
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iv
Contents!
Acronyms ............................................................................................................................. v
Summary ............................................................................................................................. vi
1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1
2 Climate!change!and!food!security ................................................................................ 2
3 Trade!effects!on!climate!change!and!trade!for!mitigation .......................................... 4
3.1 Conceptual!linkages .............................................................................................. 4
3.2 Empirical!evidence ................................................................................................ 5
3.3 Policy!implications ................................................................................................ 6
4 Climate!change!effects!on!agricultural!trade!and!trade!as!an!adaptation!measure ... 7
4.1 Conceptual!linkages .............................................................................................. 7
4.2 Quantifying!the!impacts!of!climate!change!on!trade ............................................ 8
4.2.1 Overview+of+the+methodology .......................................................................... 8
4.2.2 Climate+change+impacts+on+agricultural+trade ............................................. 11
4.2.3 Trade+policy+for+adapting+to+climate+change ................................................ 12
4.2.4 Discussion ..................................................................................................... 14
4.3 Policy!implications .............................................................................................. 15
5 Climate!and!trade!policy ............................................................................................ 16
5.1 Patterns!of!Nationally!Determined!Contributions!(NDCs) ................................. 16
5.2 Reconciling!climate!and!international!trade!policies ......................................... 17
6 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 20
References ......................................................................................................................... 21
Annex:!NDC!Factsheet ....................................................................................................... 28
!
v
Acronyms!
AR4!
Fourth!IPCC!Assessment!Report!
AR5!
Fifth!IPCC!Assessment!Report!
BAMs!
Border!adjustment!measures!
CGE!
Computable!General!Equilibrium!model!
ETSs!
Emissions!Trading!Schemes!
EKC!
Environmental!Kuznets!Curve!
GDP!
Gross!Domestic!Product!
GHG!
Greenhouse!gas!
IPCC!
Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!!
RCPs!
Representative!Concentration!Pathways!
PE!
Partial!Equilibrium!model!
SRES!
Special!Report!Emission!Scenarios!
SSPs!
Shared!Socioeconomic!Pathways!
vi!
Summary!
Agriculture!is!not!only!a!contributor!to!climate!change,!it!will!also!be!severely!affected!by!
climate! change.! Some! effects! of! warming! on! crop! yields,! increased! weed! and! pest!
occurrences! and! the! effects! of! extreme! events! (e.g.! floods,! storms,! droughts)! on!
agricultural!production!are!already!observed.!These!are!likely!to!intensify!in!the!future!
leading!to!declines!in!agricultural!production!in!many!parts!of!the!world,!fluctuations!in!
world!market!prices!and!an!increased!number!of!people!at!risk!of!food!insecurity.!The!
paper!provides!an! overview!of! the! complex! relationships! between! climate! change!and!
agricultural!trade,!their!connection!with!food!security!and!possible!policy!implications.!!
While! there! is! no! clear! evidence! on! the! net! effect! of! trade! on! Greenhouse!Gas! (GHG)!
emissions,!trade!could!play!an!important!role!in!climate!change!adaptation!for!ensuring!
food!security.!High-latitude!countries!can!expect!productivity!gains!from!climate!change!
and!could!export!a!part!of!their! surpluses!to!adversely!affected!countries.!Low-latitude!
countries!will!be!most!severely!affected!in!terms!of!production!losses!and!may!need!to!
buffer! these! losses! through! increased! food! imports.! Open! markets!could! ease! the!
exchange! between! food! surplus! and! food! deficit! regions.!Potential! environmental!
externalities! and! financial! and! distributional! impacts! on! developing! countries! would!
need!to!be!further!investigated!and,!if!necessary,!accounted!for!through!targeted!policy!
measures.!!!
The!first!domestic!climate!policies!proposed!by!the!countries!as!part!of!their!obligations!
under!the!Paris!Agreement!suggest!close!interlinkages!with!World!Trade!Organization!
(WTO)!rules.!They!would!need!to!be!coordinated!and!reconciled!at!international!level!to!
promote!climate!change!mitigation,!while,!at!the!same!time,!ensure!the!free!tradability!of!
food!as!a!crucial!adaptation!measure!to!climate!change.
!
1!
1 Introduction!
“The!2015!Paris!Agreement![…]!has!liberated!climate!research!from!discussing!what!is!
already!known!—!the!world!is!warming!and!humans!are!largely!responsible”!(Marotzke!
et+ al.,! 2017).! Around! 24!percent!of! all! climate! change! causing! greenhouse! gas! (GHG)!
emissions!come!from!agriculture,!forests!and!other!land!uses!(IPCC!AR5,!2014).!However,!
agriculture!is!not!only!a!contributor!to!climate!change,!it!will!also!be!severely!affected!by!
climate! change.! Some! effects! of! warming! on! crop! yields,! increased! weed! and! pest!
occurrences! and! the! effects! of! extreme! events! (e.g.! floods,! storms,! droughts)! on!
agricultural! production! are!already! observed!(Lobell!et+al.,!2011b,!2011a,!2013).!These!
are!likely!to!intensify!in!the!future!leading!to!declines!in!agricultural!production!in!many!
parts!of!the!world,!fluctuations!in!world!market!prices!and!an!increased!number!of!people!
at!risk!of!food!insecurity!(Hertel!et+al.,!2010).!Agricultural!trade!could!contribute!to!GHG!
emissions,!but!it!could!also!help!adapt!to!climate!change!by!moving!food!from!surplus!to!
deficit!regions.!!
The!paper!aims!is!to!provide!an!overview!of!the!complex!relationships!between!climate!
change! and!agricultural!trade,! their!connect ion! with! food! security!an d! possible! policy!
implications.!We!(1)!provide!an!overview!of!climate!change!impacts!on!food!security,!(2)!
review! the! impacts! that! trade! could! have! on! GHG! emissions! and! (3)! review!recent!
quantitative! integrated! climate! change! impact! assessments!for! the! impacts! of! climate!
change!on!agricultural!trade.!Having! shown!the! interlinkages!between!climate! change,!
trade!and!food!security,!we!also!(4)!discuss!potential!interlinkages!between!international!
trade!policy!with!recently!proposed!climate!policies.!!
!
!
! !
2!
2 Climate!change!and!food!security!
Climate!change!affects!food!security!in!many!ways.!While!climate!change!is!expected!to!
also! directly!impact!human! health! and!incomes,!we!focus!on! climate!change!effects!on!
food!security!through!its!effects!on!the!agriculture!sector!only.!!
One! can! distinguish! two! distinct! types! of! risks! (Baldos! and! Hertel,! 2015).! The! first!
pertains!to!the!occurrence!of!extreme!weather!events!such! as!heat!stress,! droughts! or!
flooding! which! result! in! disproportionately! large! losses! in! crop! yields! or! declines! in!
animal! health!(Porter,! J.R.! et+ al.,! 2014).! As! any! warming! is! expected! to! increase! the!
frequency! and! severity! of! extreme! weather! events! (Kirtman! et+ al.,! 2013),! it! becomes!
critical! to! understand! and! quantify! how! these! extremes! will! translate! into! impacts! on!
food!production!and!risks!to! food!security! (Battisti! and!Naylor,! 2009;! Porter,! J.R.!et+al.,!
2014).! Across! regions,! observational! evidence! suggests! that! maize!yields! are! already!
declining!as! the!number!of!days!with!high! temperatures!increases!(Lobell!et+al.,!2011;!
Hawkins!et+al.,!2013;!Lobell+et+al.,!2013).!The!resulting!crop!yield!variability!is!associated!
with! crop! price! spikes! (Tadasse! et+ al.,! 2016)!and! likely! to! contribute! to! increased!
commodity! price! volatility! (Diffenbaugh! et+ al.,! 2012).! Price! spikes! and! volatility! both!
constitute!increased!vulnerability!of!the!poor!to!poverty!and!malnutrition!(Ahmed!et+al.,!
2009).!!
The!second!type!of!food!security!risk!posed!by!climate!change!is!that!which!results!from!
long!run! changes! in! average! temperature! and! precipitation! as! GHGs! accumulate! in! the!
atmosphere.! As! these! changes! will! be! gradual,! there! is! greater! scope! for! incremental!
adaptation!of!management!to!maintain!current!systems!(Zimmermann!et+al.,!2017).!More!
transformational! adaptations! requiring! long-term! investments! such! as! introducing!
irrigation! are! also! possible! when! the! change! is! anticipated! (Hertel! and! Lobell,! 2014)!
though!the!high!degree!of!uncertainty!and!risk!of! maladaptation!serves! as!a! barrier! to!
these!more!fundamental!changes.!!Long!run!climate!change!effects!will!not!equally!affect!
world!regions.!Whereas!most!tropical!regions!will!suffer!from!severe!production!losses!
with! warming,! temperate! producing! regions! are! expected! to! benefit! from! higher!
temperatures!(Rosenzweig! et+ al.,! 2014)!and! potentially!longer! growing! seasons!
(Zimmermann!et+al.,!2017).!!A!further!source!of!disparity!between!tropical!and!temperate!
regions! is! related! to! the! fertilization! effect! of! elevated! CO2!concentrations! which! is!
expected!to!bring!large!yield!increases!to!C3!crop!production!in!temperate!regions!with!
minimal!drought.!However,!C4!crops!such!as!millet,!sorghum!and!maize!dominate!in!the!
tropics!and!these!crops!are!only!expected!to!benefit!from!elevated!CO2!in!cases!of!low!to!
moderate!water!limitation!(Faye!et+al.,!2018).!!
Whereas! research! on! the! long! run! climate! change! impacts! is! already! quite! extensive,!
research!on!the!impacts!of!extreme!events!and!their!risk!posed!to!agriculture!is!much!less!
developed!(Porter,!J.R.!et+al.,!2014).!In! the! long-run,! climate!change!will! affect!all! four!
dimensions!of!food!security,!namely!food!availability,!access!to!food,!food!utilization!and!
stability!of!food!supplies!(Schmidhuber!and!Tubiello,!2007;!Box!1).!!
! !
3!
Box!1:!Climate!change!impacts!on!the!four!dimensions!of!food!security!!
Food!security!is!“a!situation!that!exists!when!all!people,!at! all! times,! have! physical,!social!and!economic!
access!to!sufficient,!safe!and!nutritious!food!that!meets!their!dietary!needs!and!food!preferences!for!an!
active!and!healthy!life”!(FAO,!2001).!Based! on! t his! defini tion,! the ! four! dime nsions! of! f ood! security ! are!
defined!as:!food!availability,!economic!and!physical!access!to!food,!food!utilization!and!stability!of!access!to!
food!over!time.!
Availability:! Crop!production! will!be!heavily!affected!by!climate!change.!Crop!models!project!that!global!
mean!crop!yields!of!rice,!maize!and!wheat!could!decrease!between!3!and!10!percent!per!degree!of!warming!
above!historical!levels!(Cha llinor! et + al.,! 2014).!Livestock!systems!will! be! affected!through! reduced! feed!
quantity!and!quality,!changes!in!pest!and!disease!prevalence,!and!direct!impairment!of!production!due!to!
physiological!stress.!Growth!and!meat,!egg!and!milk!yield!and!quality!decrease!as!temperatures!go!beyond!
30!°C!due!to!reduced!feed!intake!(Thornton!and!Gerber,!2010).!Barange!et+ al.,!2014!project!potential!fish!
catch!to!decrease!by!5!to!10!percent!in! tropical!marine!ecosystems!by! 2050!(though!with!much!spatial!
variation).!!
Access:! Climate! change! will! affect! people's! access! to! food! through! impacts! on! prices,! as! affected! by!
production! and! land! relocation,! trade!flows,!but!also!through!broader!impacts!on!incomes.!While!higher!
food!prices!make!food!more!expensive!for!consumers,!higher!prices!could!translate!to!higher!incomes!for!
farmers,!many!of!whom!are!currently!food!insecure!(Stevanović!et+ al.,!2016).!!Physical!access!to!food!may!
be!disrupted!by!climate!change!via!effects!on!transport!systems!(Bailey!and!Wellesley,!2017).!!!
Utilization:!Climate!change!impacts!food!safety!and!quality.!Climate!change!is!likely!to!reduce!food!safety!
due! to! higher! rates! of! microbial!growth! at! higher! temperatures! (Hammond!et+al.,! 2015),!particularly!in!
fresh!fruit!and!vegetables!(Liu!et+al.,!2013)!and!fisheries!supply!chains!(Marques!et+al.,!2010).!Food!quality!
could!be!affected!due!to!decreases!in!protein!and!macro-!and!micronutrient!(Fe,!Zn,!Mn,!Cu)!concentrations!
associated!with! increased!CO2!concentrations! and!more! variable!and! warmer!climates! (DaMatta! et+ al.,!
2010).!Extreme!events!such!as!flooding!are!also! expected!to!aggravate!food!safety! and! health!challenges!
(Hashizume,!M.!et+al.,!2008).!
Stability:!Climate!change!effects!the!stability!of!food!security!as!extreme!weather!events!reduce!crop!yields!
or! damage! physical! infrastructure! resulting! in! limited! food! availability! and! driving! food! price! shocks!
(Tadasse!et+al.,!2016)!limiting!food!access!(Wheeler!and!Braun,!2013).!Also,!bioenergy!policies!as!mitigation!
efforts!to!combat!climate!change!are!thought!to!have!contributed!to! food!price!volatility!(Wheeler! and!
Braun,!2013).!!
Sources:!Based!on!Campbell!et+al.!(2016)!and!Schmidhuber!and!Tubiello!(2007).!
!
!
!
!
! !
4!
3 Trade!effects!on!climate!change!and!trade!for!mitigation!
3.1 Conceptual!linkages!
Trade!and!global!trade!opening!could!contribute!to!or!mitigate!climate!change.!Evidence!
tends! to! be!mixed,! but! some! studies! find! that! general! (not! just! agricultural)! trade!
openness!of!a!country!may!lead!to! increased!GHG!emissions,!mainly!through!increased!
production,! consumption! and! transport!(WTO-UNEP,! 2009).! Recently,! Cristea! et+ al.!
(2013)!found! that! transportation! is! responsible! for! 33! percent! of! worldwide! trade-
related!emissions.!This!is!equivalent!to!3.5!percent!of!total!emissions!(OECD/ITF,!2010).!
Considering!the!production!aspect!of!international!trade,!there!are!three!noted!effects!as!
introduced! by! Grossman! and! Krueger! (1993):! the! scale! effect,! by! which! increased!
economic!activity!results!in!greater!emissions,!the!composition!effect,!by!which!increased!
trade! may! affect! the! sectoral! composition! of! an! economy! through! changes! in! relative!
prices,!and!the!technique!effect,!or!the!effect!on!environmental!quality!of!technology!spill-
overs!resulting!from!increased!trade.!
The! scale+ effect!states! that! free! trade! necessarily! creates! additional! output! and! if! the!
nature!of!the!activity!remained!unchanged,!resource!depletion!and!pollution!will!increase!
proportionally!along!with!output,!and!thus!negatively!affect!climate!change.!!
The!impact!of!trade!through!the!composition+effect!depends!on!whether!the!country!has!
a! compar ative! advantage! in! em ission-intensive! sectors! and! whether! these! sectors! are!
contracting! or! expanding.! The! sources! of! comparative! advantages! could! be! different:!
capital!endowments,!natural!resource!endowments!and!regulation.!
First,!trade!patterns!could!be!determined!by!endowments!of!capital!and!labour,!as!in!the!
standard!neoclassical!theory!of!trade.!In!this!context,!the!“factor!endowment”!hypothesis!
claims! that! pollution-intensive! industries! are! normally! capital-intensive! and! that! the!
availabili ty! of! capital! wil l! determine! the! l ocation! of! th e! pollution-intensive! industries.!
Second,! comparative! advantage! can! be! determined! by! the! endowment! of! natural!
resources.!A!country!with!abundant!forest!resources!is!expected!to!export!forest-based!
products,!and!therefore!trade!is!likely!to!damage!the!environment!of!such!countries.!The!
comparative! advantage! might! also! be! determined! by! the! difference! in! environmental!
regulations.!According!to!the!“pollution!haven”!hypothesis,!high-emission!industries!may!
relocate! to! countries! with! less! stringent! emission! regulation! policies.
1
!Under! this!
hypothesis,!trade!opening!has!an!impact!on!the!distribution!of!pollution!across!countries,!
rather!than!on!the!overall!average.!
However,!policymaking!with!the!"pollution!haven"!hypothesis!in!mind!could!lead!to!the!
imposition!of!less!stringent!environmental!regulations!(race!to!the!bottom).!The!“race!to!
the!bottom”!hypothesis!claims!that!international!trade!and!investment!create!downward!
pressure! on! countries’! environmental! standards! and! thus! damage! the! environment!
1
!A!contrary!to!the!“pollution!haven”!hypothesis!is!the!“Porter”!hypothesis,!suggesting!that!more!stringent!
environmental! policies! in! the! home! country! lead! to! improved! comparative! advantage! for! domestic!
industries.!
5!
across!the!globe.!The!net!effect!of!changes!in!the!composition!of!sectoral!output!resulting!
from!trade!depends!on!the!strength!and!interplay!of!these!changes.
2
!!
While! the! scale! effect! almos t! certainly! leads! to! higher! emissions! and! the! composition!
effect! is! ambiguous,! the! technology! effect! can! be! expected! to! have! climate! mitigating!
outcomes.!!
The! technique! effect! reduces! the! emission! per! unit! of! output! produced! or! consumed!
through!multiple!channels.!Trade!can!increase!the!income!level!and!with!it!the!demand!
for! cleaner! a! environment.! Further,! trade! induces! technological! change,! encourages!
technology!transfer;!speeds! up! the!adoption! of!frontier!technologies!and! best-practice!
management.!
The!interaction!of!these!effects!explains!the!Environmental!Kuznets!Curve!(EKC),!which!
assumes! a! loose! inversely! U-shaped! relationship! between! income! and! environment.!
Recall!that!because!of!opening!to!trade!the!scale!of!the!economic!activity!expands.!If!the!
scale!of!the!activity!is!growing!while!the!nature!of!the!activity!is!unchanged!then!trade!
opening!leads!to!a!proportional!increase!in!pollution!and!resource!depletion.!However,!
the!EKC!suggests!that!the!nature!of!the!economic!activity!does!change,!either!in!terms!of!
change!in!the!composition!of!activity,!the!development!or!transfer!of!new!technologies,!
or!increasing!income!levels!leading!to!higher!demand!for!a!cleaner!environment.!
In! contrast,! G rossman! and! Krueger! (1991)! suggest! an! N -shaped! relatio nship! between!
income! and! GHG! emissions.! This! relationship! indicates! that! emissions! increase! as!
country!income!increases,!decrease!once!a!threshold!income!level!is!reached,!and!then!
begin!to!rise!again!when!a!second!income!turning!point!is!passed.!!
!
3.2 Empirical!evidence!
Since! Grossman! and! Krueger! (1993)! first! studied! the! environmental! impact!of! trade!
openness,! several! econometric! studies! on! the! matter! have! emerged.! Antweiler! et+ al.!
(2001)!and! Grether! et+ al.! (2007),! for! the! example! of! sulphur! dioxide,! find! that! the!
technique! effect! was! strong! enough! for! trade! opening! to! result! in! environmental!
improvements.!Cole!and! Elliott!(2003)!on!the!other!hand,!by!taking!into!consideration!
CO2,! show!that! the! scale! effect! outweighs! the! technology! effect! meaning! more! trade!
openness!would! likely! result! in! a! CO2!emissions! increase.! Frankel! and! Rose's! (2005)!
empirical! study! on! almost!150!countries! finds! similar! results,!but!after!controlling! for!
endogeneity! the! positive! relation! between! trade! openness! and! environmental! quality!
becomes! statistically! insignificant.! In! the! context! of! agricultural! trade,! Schmitz! et+ al.!
(2012)!predict!higher!economic!benefits!from!further!trade!liberalisation!at!the!expense!
of!environment!and!climate!by!the!middle!of!the!century,!if!no!pertinent!regulations!are!
implemented.!Ederington!et+al.!(2004)!find! no!evidence!of! a!causal!link! between!trade!
liberalization! and! a! compositional! shift! towards! cleaner! technologies! in! US!
manufacturing.! However,! they! note!thatthis! compositional! shift! is! also! present! in! US!
2
!Leaving!aside!the!possibility!of!a!race!to!the!bottom!effect,!Frankel!(2009)!suggests!that!the!composition!
effect! might! positively! affect! the! environment.! Frankel! (2009)! further! found! little! support! that! trade!
induces!the!race!to!the!bottom.!
6!
imports,! discrediting! the! hypothesis! that! increasing! trade! openness! may! lead! to! the!
production!of!emission!intensive!goods!in!so-called!pollution!havens.!These!findings!are!
contradicted! by!Cole! (2004),! who! finds! evidence! of! pollution! haven! effects,! albeit!
relatively! small! compared! to! the! role! played! by! other! variables! and! not! widespread.!
Evidence!on!pollution!haven!effects!were!also!found!by!several!other!studies!(Kellenberg,!
2009;!Levinson!and!Taylor,!2008;!Solarin!et+al.,!2017).!
Recently,! Jafari! et+ al.! (2017)!find! an! N-shaped! relationship! between! GDP! and! GHG!
emissions! (in! CO2!equivalents! per! capita)! in! developed! countries,! while! an! U-shaped!
relationship! between! these! variables! exists! in! developing! countries,! countries! in!
transition! and! least! developed! countries.! However,! trade! in! goods! and! foreign! direct!
investment!show!no!significant!impact!on!the!level!of!GHG!emissions.!Rafiq+et+al.!(2016)!
specifically!consider!the!agriculture!sector!and!international!(merchandise)!trade!in!their!
analysis.! Their! results!show! that! industrialization! increases! pollution! levels,! whereas!
both!service!and!agriculture!value!added!help!reduce!emissions.!Their!results!regarding!
the!effect!of!trade!openness!on!GHG!emissions!are!mixed.!A!linear!model!does!not!show!
any! significant! effect,! while! a! nonlinear! model! specification! shows! that! trade!
liberalization!significantly!contributes!to!emission!reductions.!!
!
3.3 Policy!implications!
Overall!the!empirical!evidence!on!the!climate!change!mitigating!effects!of!international!
trade!is!mixed.!
However,! the! scope! for! trade! in! climate! change! mitigation!exists,! as!underlined! by! the!
presence!of! potential! trade! policy! changes! implicit! in! the! Nationally! Determined!
Contributions!(NDCs),!the!documents!submitted!by!each!member!country!in!the!context!
of! the! Paris! Agreement! and! stating! their! commitment! to! tackling! climate! change.!
Agricultural! trade! could! help!to!mitigate! climate! change! by! (i)! allowing! to! move!
agricultural! (food)! production!to!most!efficient!regions!in!terms!of!GHG!emissions!and!
(ii)! using! dedicated! (m ost! suitable)! regions! for! the! produ ction! of! (new)! energy! crops !
(Elbehri!et+al.,!2015).!Trade!in!general!(merchandise!trade)! could!help!mitigate!climate!
change!by!fostering!the!exchange!and!distribution!of!climate!friendly!technology!(WTO-
UNEP,!2009).!
Trade!policies!should!be!complemented!by!targeted!environmental!measures!for!reaping!
trade! benefits! in! terms! of! economic! growth! and! climate! change! mitigation,! but! at! the!
same!time!addressing!potential!trade-related!environmental!externalities.!!
! !
7!
4 Climate!change!effects!on!agricultural!trade!and!trade!as!an!
adaptation!measure!
4.1 Conceptual!linkages!
Climate! change! may! lead! to! significant! trade! disruptions! in! the! short-term! (through!
extreme! events)! and! long-term! changes! in! trade! patterns! through! altering! countries’!
comparative!advantages.! Trade! could!help! countries! adapt! to! short-term! supply!
disruptions! and! long-term! changes! in! comparative!advantages! triggered! by! climate!
change!(Baldos!and!Hertel,! 2015;!Havlík! et+al.,!2015;!Nelson!et+al.,!2014a;! WTO-UNEP,!
2009).!!
Short-term! supply! disruptions! through! extreme! events! in! parts! of! the! world! and!
subsequent! price! volatility! could! be! mitigated! by! increased! imports! or! food! aid! from!
regions!that!were!not!or!less!affected!by!these!events.!Open!markets!could!facilitate!the!
movement!of! agricultural! products!from! surplus! to! deficit! regions! and! mitigate! price!
volatility! in! the! countries! struck! by! the! climate! extremes.! While! extreme! events! are!
difficult! to! predict,! the! balancing! impact! of! open! market! on! price! volatility! is! well-
researched!(Anderson,! 2012;! Anderson! and! Nelgen,! 2012;! Martin! and! Ivanic,! 2016;!
Porteou s,! 2017).! However,! fo od! price! volati lity! may! also! be! imported! fr om! the! world!
market,!especially!in!highly!trade-dependent!developing!countries!(Ceballos!et+al.,!2017).!!
Here,!we!focus!on!the!slow-onset,!long-term,!effects!of!climate!change!on!the!agriculture!
sector.!!
Conceptually,! the! initial! effect! of! climate! change! that! reduces! yields!(given! existing!
practices)!would!lead!to!reduced!production.!The!reduced!supply!in!turn!triggers!price!
rises.!Due!to!the!higher!prices,!consumers!reduce!consumption,!especially! of! relatively!
expensive!crop!and!livestock!products,!and!turn!to!relatively!cheaper!foods.!At!the!same!
time,!producers!respond!to!higher!prices!by!allocating! more! land! to!the! affected! crops!
and!changing!farm-level!management!practices!to!optimize!production,!partly!or!fully!off-
setting! the! initial! yield-reducing! effect! of! climate! change!(Nelson! et+ al.,! 2014a).! In!
addition,! climate! change! affects! agricultural! trade! through! non-uniform! effects! on!
agricultural!production!across!countries.!Since!countries!will!be!affected!unevenly,!their!
trade!patterns!will! change!to! compensate!for!production!losses! and!surpluses.!(OECD,!
2015).! This! autonomous! (or! “endogenous”!as! per!Ahammad! et+ al.,! 2015)!adaptation!
determines!the!effect!of!climate!change!on!trade.!However,!how!well!markets!can!adapt!
to!climate!change!will!also!be!determined!by!the!extent!of!their!openness!to!trade.!Trade!
barriers!make!access!to!the!world!markets!more!difficult,!rendering!the!regional!impacts!
of!climate!change!relatively!more!important!for!regional!food!security!(Baldos!and!Hertel,!
2015).!
In!short,!a!negative!productivity!effect!from!climate!change!would!likely!cause!prices!to!
increase!and!trigger!more!intensive!management!practices,!area!expansion,!reallocation!
through!international!trade,!and!reduced!consumption.!!
While! increased! trade! may! help! to! alleviate! pressures! from! combined! socioeconomic!
and/or!climate! impacts!on! agricultural! production! and! prices,! it! may! also!entail! other!
8!
impacts!and!externalities!potentially!linked!to!them!–!both!positive,!for!example!increases!
in!productivity!embedded!in! increased!inputs!or!investments!(Huang! et+al.,!2011)!and!
negative,! for! example! increases! in! greenhouse! gas! emissions! due! to! deforestation!
(Schmitz!et+al.,!2015;!c.f.!section!3).!!
!
4.2 Quantifying!the!impacts!of!climate!change!on!trade!
Although! assessments! of! climate! change! impacts! on! the! agriculture! sector! in! specific!
countries! or! regions! are! plenty,! only! a! relatively!limited! number! of! studies! consider!
impacts! on! international! trade.!We! review! global! integrated! climate! change! impact!
assessments! that! include! at! least!one! economic!model.! All! of! the! reviewed! studies! u se!
either! Computable! General! Equilibrium! (CGE)! or! Partial! Equilibrium! (PE)! models.!
Typically!these!are!long-term!foresight!analyses,!which!do!not!consider!extreme!weather!
events!or!price!volatility.!!
!
4.2.1 Overview+of+the+methodology+
Common!to!all!studies!considered!here!is!that!in!a!first!step!(usually!as!part!of!preexisting!
biophysical! studies)! climate! impacts! on! the! agriculture! sector! were! simulated! by!
coupling!climate!and!crop!growth!models.!The!resulting!impacts!on!crop!yields!are!in!a!
second!step!used!to!shift!yields!in!line!with!the!simulated!climate!change!impact!in!the!
economic! models.! The! economic! models! then! simulate! the! effects! of! climate! change!
adjusted! yields! on! food! production! and! subsequent! changes! in! trade! and! demand.!
Usually,! this! is! done! for! the! long-term! (often! for! the! year! 2050)! and,! to! some! extent,!
reflecting!uncertainty!in!future!development!paths! by!considering! a!range! of!different!
climate!change!and!socioeconomic!scenarios.!!
All! of! the! studies! use!scenario! assumptions! based! on! the! climate! and! socioeconomic!
pathways! adopted! by! the! Intergovernmental! Panel! on! Climate! Change! (IPCC).! Two!
studies!use!the!Special!Report!Emission!Scenarios!(SRES,!Arnell!et+al.,!2004)!of!the!Fourth!
IPCC!Assessment!Report!(AR4).!The!other!studies!use!the!Representative!Concentration!
Pathways! (RCPs)! and! Shared! Socioeconomic! Pathways! (SSPs)! developed! for! the! Fifth!
IPCC! Assessment! Report! (AR5)! (O’Neill! et+ al.,! 2017;! van! Vuuren! et+ al.,! 2011).! The!
assumptions!within!the!SSPs!are!currently!being!refined!and!regionalized!and!are!often!
interpreted! somewhat! differently! in! the! individual! economic! models.! However,! their!
basic! assumptions! are! harmonized! and! refer! to! future! world! population! and! Gross!
Domestic!Product!(GDP)!as!main!driving!forces!of!the!agriculture!and!food!system.!Some!
studies!reviewed! include! additional! trade! policy! scenarios,! these! are! considered! in!
section!4.2.3.!Table!1! provides!an!overview!of! the!reviewed!studies!and!the!scenarios!
used!therein.!Counterfactual!scenario!results!are!usually!compared!to!a!baseline!scenario,!
often!a!projection!of!current!trends!into!the!future.!!
In! addition! to! the! exogenous! effect! on! yields! from! climate! change,! most! studies! also!
consider!a!yield-increasing!effect!through!technological!change!over!time,!which!varies!
across!scenarios!and!regions.!
9"
Table&1.&Global&studies&considering&climate&change&impacts&on&international&trade&
Authors&
Year&
Main&objective&
Type&of&economic&
model&
Combination&of&climate,&economic&and&trade&scenarios&
Nelson&et#al.&
2014a/2014b"
Economic"impacts"of"
climate"change"
Multi-model"(5/6"
CGE,"4"PE)"
Baseline:"SSP2;"Scenarios:"SSP2"with"RCP8.5,"no"CO2"fertilization"
von&Lampe&et#al.&
2014"
Economic"impacts"of"
climate"change,"model"
comparison"
Multi-model"(6"CGE,"
4"PE)"
Baseline:"SSP2;"Scenarios:"SSP2"with"RCP8.5,"no"CO2"fertilization;"
SSP3"no"climate"change;"bioenergy"scenarios"
Ahammad&et#al.&
2015"
Role"of"international"
trade"under"climate"
change"
Multi-model"(6"CGE,"
4"PE)"
Baseline:"SSP2;"Scenarios:"SSP2"with"RCP8.5,"no"CO2"fertilization;"
SSP3"no"climate"change;"bioenergy"scenarios"
OECD&
2015"
Economic"impacts"of"
climate"change"
CGE"
Baseline:"SSP2;"Scenarios:"SSP2"with"RCP8.5,"no"CO2"fertilization"
Havlík&et#al.&
2015"
Climate"change"impacts"
and"mitigation"in"the"
developing"world"
PE"
SSP4"no"CC;"SSP5"no"CC;"SSP4/RCP2.6"w/wo"mitigation;"
SSP4/RCP8.5;"SSP5/RCP2.6"w/wo"mitigation;"SSP5/RCP8.5,"RCP2.6"
with"CO2"fertilization,"RCP8.5"w/wo"CO2"fertilization"
Blanco&et#al.&
2017"
Climate"change"impacts"
on"agriculture"
PE"
SSP2/RCP8.5"w/wo"CO2"fertilization"
10"
Wiebe&et#al.&
2015"
Climate"change"impacts"
on"agriculture"
Multi-model"(3"CGE,"
2"PE)"
SSP1"no"CC;"SSP1/RCP4.5;"SSP1/RCP4.5/trade"liberalized;"SSP2"no"
CC;"SSP2/RCP6.0;"SSP3"no"CC;"SSP3/RCP8.5;"SSP3/RCP8.5/trade"
restricted"
"
"
Baldos&and&
Hertel&
2015"
International"trade"in"
managing"food"security"
risks"from"climate"change"
PE"
SSP2"no"CC;"SSP2/RCP8.5"w/wo"CO2"fertilization;"SSP2/RCP8.5"
w/wo"CO2"fertilization/full"trade"liberalisation"
Costinot&
2016"
Climate"change"impacts"
on"comparative"
advantages"
GE"
SRES"A1FI"with"CC/free"allocation"of"production/free"trade;"A1FI"
with"CC/allocation"of"production"restricted/free"trade;"A1FI"with"
CC/free"allocation"of/trade"restricted""
Stevanović&et#al.&
2016"
Climate"change"impact"on"
agricultural"welfare"
PE"
SRES"A2"w/wo"CC"w/wo"liberalized"trade;"no"CO"fertilization"
"
11"
4.2.2 Climate+change+impacts+on+agricultural+trade+
Impacts(on(trade(at(global(level"
The"multi-model"analysis"of"Nelson"et(al."(2014a)"shows"that"all"nine"models"considered"
in"the"study"transfer"a"large"part"of"the"climate"change"shock"to"production-side"and"trade"
responses"-"at"least"three"quarters"of"climate"change"responses"occur"through"land"use"
change,"management"intensity,"and"trade"adaptation."The"share"of"global"trade"in"world"
production"increases"by"1"percent"on"average"compared"to"a"no"climate"change"baseline"
in"2050."Despite"these"endogenous"adaptations,"average"producer"prices"increase"by"20"
percent,"whereas"consumption"responses"are"relatively"small"and"differ"little"across"the"
models."The"models"tend"to"disagree"on"whether"area"or"yield"responses"would"be"most"
important"locally,"and"on"trade-responsiveness.
3
""
The" multi-model" analysis" of" von" Lampe" et( al." (2014)"predicts"higher" prices" for"
agricultural"commodities"caused"by"climate"change"in"general,"and"for"crops"in"particular."
Average" prices" of" a" crops " aggregate" change" between" 2" percent" and" 7 9" percent" across"
models" and" scenarios"compared" to" a" no" climate" change" baseline" in" 2050." However,"
contrary" to"Nelson" et(al." (2014a)," von" Lampe" et( al."(2014)"also" find"demand"effects"in"
terms"of"a"reduced"per"capita"calorie"availability"across"the"world"(with"few"exceptions)."
Climate"change"is"also"predicted"to"result"in"substantially"higher"net"food"imports.""
The"multi-model"analysis"of"Ahammad"et(al."(2015)"projects"lower"global"production"for"
all" considered" crops" under" climate" change." Ahammad" et( al." (2015)"also" suggest" an"
increasing"role"of"trade"under"climate"change"as"most"models"project"exports"to"decrease"
by" much" less" than" the" projected" decline" in" production" or"to" even" increase" against"
declining"production.""
Havlík"et(al."(2015)"find"that"climate"change"effects"in"2030"remain"limited"at"the"global"
level"and"aggregated"across"crops."However,"as"climate"change"progresses,"trade"becomes"
an" important" contribution"to" adaptation." In" 2080," agricultural" trade" due" to" climate"
change"increases"by"0.4"percent"and"1.2"percent"of"the"global"production"under"RCP"8.5"
with" and" without" CO2"effects," respectively," between" the" ten" different" macro-regions"
considered"in"the"study."
(
Impacts(by(region(
Climate" change" affects"world" regions" unevenly," leading" to" changes" in" regional"
comparative" advantages" and" changes" in" trade" patterns." Although" mos t"s tudies" do" not"
explore"changes"in"trade"systematically,"some"regions"are"repetitively"found"to"increase"
their"net"imports,"whereas"others"are"expected"to"increase"their"net"exports"(Table"2)."
Increasing" net"imports"are"expected" for" the" Republic"of"India" (von"Lampe" et( al.," 2014)"
and"South"Asia"(Baldos"and"Hertel,"2015;"Havlík"et(al.,"2015)"as"well"as"for"sub-Saharan"
Africa"(Ahammad"et(al.,"2015;"Baldos"and"Hertel,"2015;"Havlík"et(al.,"2015;"OECD,"2015)."
Havlík" et( al." (2015)"find" also" increasing" net" imports" in" Southeast" Asia" and" the" Pacific,""
whereas"the"OECD"study"(OECD," 2015)"projects"increasing"net"exports"in"some"ASEAN"
3
"Further"analysis"is"also"provided"in"Nelson"et(al."(2014b).""
12"
countries."Mixed"results"are"also"projected"for"the"United"States"of"America."Ahammad"et(
al." (2015)"expect" decreasing" exports" (increasing" net" imports)" of" coarse" grains" and"
oilseeds,
4
"while"Blanco"et(al.((2017)"find"increasing"net"exports"of"wheat."Canada"(Blanco"
et(al.,"2017;"von"Lampe"et(al.,"2014),"Latin"America"(Havlík"et(al.,"2015;"OECD,"2015;"von"
Lampe"et(al.,"2014),"and"Eastern"Europe"and"Central"Asia"(Ahammad"et(al.,"2015;"Havlík"
et(al.,"2015)"are"projected"to"increase"their"net"exports,"a"result"that"is"also"found"by"two"
studies"for"the"Middle"East"and"North"Africa"(Havlík"et(al.,"2015;"OECD,"2015)."Blanco"et(
al." (2017)"also" project" increasing" net" wheat" imports" for" Europe," Australia" and" New"
Zealand.""
While" trade" will" clearly" play" an" important" role" in" adapting" to" climate"change"in"some"
regions"(von"Lampe"et(al.,"2014),"the"net"trade"status"of"the"key"exporting"and"importing"
countries"and"commodities"is" usually"predicted"to"remain"unchanged"(Ahammad"et(al.,"
2015)."""
"
Table&2.&Climate&change&impacts&on&trade&at&regional&level&
Study&
More&net&imports&(less&net&
exports)&
More&net&exports&(less&net&
imports)&
von&Lampe&et+al.&(2014)&
India"
Canada"
Brazil"
Ahammad&et+al.&(2015)&
Sub-Sahara"Africa"(rice"and"
wheat)"(increase"imports)"
United"States"of"America"
(coarse"grains"and"oilseeds)"
(decrease"exports)"
China"(coarse"grains"and"oilseeds)"
(decrease"imports)"
Former"Soviet"Union"(wheat)"
OECD&(2015)&(general,&
not&just&agriculture)&
India"
African"countries"
United"States"of"America"
Chile""
Brazil""
Middle"East""
Some"ASEAN"countries"
Havlík&et+al.&(2015)&
South"Asia"
Sub-Sahara"Africa"
Eastern"Asia"and"Pacific"
Latin"America"
Middle"East"and"North"Africa"
Eastern"Europe"and"Central"Asia"
Blanco&et+al.&(2017),&&
Example:&wheat&
European"Union"
Australia"and"New"Zealand"
United"States"of"America"
Canada"
Baldos&and&Hertel&(2015)&
Sub-Sahara"Africa"
South"Asia"
"
"
4.2.3 Trade+policy+for+adapting+to+climate+change+
Few" global" climate" change" impact" assessments" so" far" have" included" dedicated" trade"
policy"scenarios."Wiebe"et(al."(2015)"simulate,"among"other"scenarios,"a"scenario"in"which"
4
"Ahammad" et( al." (2015)"state"that" some" uncertainty"is" related"to" this" as" the"United" States" are" usually"
projected"to"be"less"affected"by"climate"change"than"other"regions.""
13"
all"tariffs"and" export" subsidies"on"agri-food"trade"are"removed"and"a"scenario"in"which"
trade"is"more"restricted"by"doubling"import"tariffs"between"three"main"trade"blocks"(East"
and"South"Asia;"a"block"including"Western"and"Eastern"Europe,"Central"Asia,"the"Middle"
East" and" Africa;" and" a" Western" Hemisphere" block" with" North," Central" and" South"
America)."When"trade"is"liberalized,"trade"increases"considerably"and"prices"increase"by"
4.3"percent"on"average"for"an"aggregate"of"five"commodities"and"four"economic"models"
due"to"climate"change"compared"to"an"8"percent"increase"without"adjusting"trade"policies"
in" a" moderate" climate" change" scenario"(SSP1" and" RCP4.5)." When" trade" is" restricted,"
options"for"adjustment"to"climate"shocks"are"limited"and"prices"increase"by"25.2"percent"
on"average"compared"to" 15.5"percent" with"‘business-as-usual’"trade"policies"in"a"more"
extreme"climate"change"scenario"(SSP3"and"RCP8.5)."""
Havlík"et(al."(2015)"show"that"the"different"trade"policy"specifications"for"the"two"SSPs"
considered"in"their"analysis"are"well"reflected"in"the"trade"results."Under"SSP4,"trade"is"
considered" relatively" constrained" (trade" barriers" increase"considerably" compared" to"
today’s"situation"between"all"large" regions"of"the"world)"and"trade"adjustments"remain"
low."As" a" result," crop" prices" in" sub-Saharan" Africa," a" severely" affected" region" under"
climate" change," are" predicted" to" increase" by" up"to" 11.9"percent"in" 2030." Under" SSP5"
where"trade"costs"remain"unchanged"compared"to"today’s"situation,"observed"responses"
are" much" larger" and" partly"help" to" mitigate" price" impacts,"for" instance" in" sub-Saharan"
Africa"where"they"are"predicted"to"increase"by"only"5.6"percent"due"to"climate"change,"or"
provide"export"opportunities"to"relatively"less"affected"regions"(Latin"America,"Eastern"
Europe"and"Central"Asia).""
Baldos"and"Hertel"(2015)"find"that,"globally,"market"barriers"have"significant"implications"
for" future" food" security" under"climate" change." The" number" of" undernourished"is"
predicted"to"increase"by"up"to"30"percent"when"markets"are"tightly"integrated,"but"could"
rise"to"up"to"55"percent"when"trade"costs"are"high,"e.g."due"to"trade"barriers,"in"2050.""
Running"a" no" climate"change"and"three" counterfactual"scenarios,"Costinot"et(al."(2016)"
find" that," under" climate" change" and" free" trade," world" GDP" decreases" by" 0.26" percent"
compared"to"the"no"climate"change"baseline."When"export"patterns"are"held"fixed,"the"loss"
in"world"GDP"would"be"0.27"percent."They"also"explore"a"scenario"in"which"countries"can"
trade" freely," but" farmers" cannot" adjust" their" production" patterns"in" o rder" to" adapt" to"
climate"change."In"this"case,"GDP"would"even"fall"by"0.78"percent.""
A"study"by"Stevanović"et(al."(2016)"suggests"that"under"a"scenario"that"allows"for"almost"
entirely" free" trade" by" t he" end" of" the" centur y,"g lobal" agricultur al" welfare" losses" due" to"
climate" change" could" be" reduced"by" arou nd" 65" percent" compared" to" a" co unterfactual"
scenario"which"restricts"trade"to"the"pattern"prevailing"in"1995."Producers"in" northern"
temperate"zones"would"benefit"from"liberalized"markets"under"climate"change"because"
their" exports" could" increase" faster" than" under" trade" restrictions." In" lower" latitudes,"
consumers" would" benefit" from" liberalized" trade" through" relatively" lower" global"
agricultural"prices.""""
"
14"
4.2.4 Discussion++
Although"scenarios"have"been"aligned"to"some"extent,"a"systematic"comparison"of"model"
results"appears"to"be"difficult"as"most"of"the"studies"focus"on"different"model"outcomes."
Whereas" most" studies" show" climate" change"impacts" on" model" exogenous" and/or"
endogenous" yields," socioeconomic" model" outcome"variables" discussed" in" the" studies"
vary,"e.g."malnutrition"count"(Baldos" and"Hertel," 2015);"welfare"indicators"(Costinot" et(
al.,"2016;"Stevanović"et(al.,"2016),"with"only"price"changes"being"assessed"in"a"majority"of"
the"reviewed"studies"(Havlík"et(al.,"2015;" Nelson" et(al.,"2014a;"von"Lampe"et(al.,"2014;"
Wiebe"et(al.,"2015)."Nelson"et(al."(2014a"and"2014b),"von"Lampe(et(al."(2014)"and"Wiebe"
et(al."(2015)" provide"excellent" reviews"of" the" range"of"price" changes"(and" other"model"
results)"across"the"economic"models"used"in"the"respective"analyses."""
Nonetheless," von" Lampe" et( al." (2014)"find" that," despite" substantial" differences" in" the"
scenario" results" across" models," the" ten" global" economic" models" considered" in" their"
analysis"“revealed"a"number"of"largely"common"outcomes,"including"on"relative"hotspots"
for" future" growth" in" agricultural" demand" and" production," the" relative" importance" of"
productivity"progress"as"compared"to”"expanding"the" utilized"agricultural"area," and"an"
increasingly" important" role" for" international" trade"as" an" endogenous" adaptation"
mechanism"of"the"global"agriculture"system.""
Nelson"et(al."(2014a)"add"that"analyses"that"limit"climate"change"impacts"to"biophysical"
effects" alone" likely"significantly"underestimate"the"international"capacity" to"respond"to"
climate" change." One" should" ho wever" bear" in" mind " that," i n" particul ar" for" trade" r elated"
issues," the" results" of" most" models" have" only" focused" on" few" important" traded"
commodities"and"major"exporters"and"importers"(Ahammad"et(al.,"2015)."
A"general"finding"of"multi-model"studies"is"that"the"relative"magnitude"of"the"responses"
to" climate" change"varies" widely" across" the" models," reflecting" differences" in" model"
structure"and"parameterization"(Nelson"et(al.,"2014a;"von"Lampe"et(al.,"2014;"Wiebe"et(al.,"
2015)."Nelson" et(al."(2014a)" and" von"Lampe(et(al." (2014)"both" emphasize" that" spatial"
equilibrium" models,"which" are" often"based"on" the" Armington" assumption"(Armington,"
1969)," typically" assume" more" segmented" global" markets" with" resulting" lower" price"
transmission"and"less"responsive"trade"patterns"which"could"lead"to"larger"price"changes"
following"exogenous"shocks"than"in"models"that"are"less"trade-restrictive.""
Although" the"global"climate" change"impact"assessments" reviewed" here" provide"a" good"
overview"of"the"overall"direction"of"the"impacts"that"climate"change"could"have"and"some"
broad" adaptation"mechanisms," they" neglect" many"others."A"number"of" factors" through"
which"climate"change"may"affect"agriculture"and"the"general"economy"are"typically"not"
accounted" for." For" example," extreme" events "a nd" the" resulting" increas ed" probability" of"
yield" failures" and" changes" in" yield" and" price" variability," sea" level" changes," effects" on"
energy"demand,"health,"and" labour"productivity"(Nelson"et(al.,"2014a;" von"Lampe"et(al.,"
2014).""Many"forms"of"adaptations"to"climate"change"that"might"alter"its"final"impacts"are"
also" not" considered," e.g." changing" crop" and" livestock" management"practices"
(Zimmermann"et(al.,"2017),"and"the"impacts"of"targeted"investments"and""research"and"
development.""
15"
Many"studies"also"highlight"that,"although"climate"change"is"a"critical"factor"for"regional"
food"security,"the"contribution"of"climate"change"to"global"future"food"security"could"be"
relatively"small"when"compared"to"other"drivers,"e.g."population"and"income"changes,"of"
the" global" farm" and" food" system" (Ahammad" et( al.," 2015;" Baldos" and" Hertel," 2015;"
Schmidhuber"and"Tubiello,"2007)."
Whereas" climate" and" crop" models" are" largely" based" on" fundamental"biophysical"
relationships,"economic"models"try"to"capture"ever-changing"human"decision"making"and"
there" outcomes" are" thus" by" definition" more" volatile" and" uncertain." This" uncertainty"
accumulates"over"the"long"projection"time"horizon"and"needs"to"be"reflected"in"the"model"
parameterization."A"review" of"methods" and" parameterization"applied" in"current"global"
economic"models" used"for"long-term"projections"of"agriculture"sector"developments"is"
provided"by"Hertel"et(al."(2016).""
"
4.3 Policy&implications&
Following"the"clear"pattern"of"the"quantitative"simulation"studies"that"international"trade"
may"play"an"important"role"in"adapting"to"long-term"climate"change,"most"authors"call"for"
a" further " opening"of"markets"in" agriculture" in" order" to" transfer" food" more" easily" and"
efficiently"from"surplus"to"deficit"regions"(e.g."Baldos"and"Hertel,"2015;"von"Lampe"et(al.,"
2014).""
Under" deteriorating" conditions" for" agricultural" production" from" climate" change," food"
imports"of"low-latitude"(often"developing)"countries"will"have"to"come"from"high-latitude"
(often"developed)"countries." Whereas"open" markets"would"allow" this" to"happen" more"
easily," an"increasing"dependence"on" imports" to" meet" food"needs"may"also"increase"the"
risk"of"“importing”"higher"market"and"price"volatility"from"other"world"regions"(Elbehri"
et(al.,"2015)."It"also"leads"to"the"question"of"the"future"financial"capability"of"developing"
countries"to"buffer"their"production"losses"through"imports"from"other"world"regions.""
"
"
& &
16"
5 Climate&and&trade&policy&
Given" the" role" that" agricultural" trade" could" play" in" re-balancing" supply" and" demand"
between"regions"under"climate"change,"the"question"arises"if"and"how"trade"is"reflected"
as"adaptation"measure"in"the"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contributions"(INDCs)"and"
Nationally" Determined" Contributions" (NDCs)" submitted" by" the" Parties" to" the" Paris"
Agreement"and" how" the" prop osed" climate" policies " interact" with" existing" Wor ld" Trade"
Organization"(WTO)"regulation.
5
"We"first" review"general" patterns"of" a"sample" of"NDCs"
and"then"broadly"set"them"into"context"with"WTO"regulation.""
"
5.1 Patterns&of&Nationally&Determined&Contributions&(NDCs)&
In"the"absence"of"instructions"on"how"NDCs"were"to"be"formulated,"these"tend"to"be"highly"
heterogeneous"in"terms"of"content,"length"and"level"of"detail."In"order" to"identify" some"
common"patterns,"we"analysed"the"NDCs"of"35"countries.
6
"The"sample"was"selected"to"be"
as" repres entative" as" poss ible" geographical ly," and" across" th e" income" and" development"
spectrums."The" methodology" for" sample" selection" is" described" in"the"Annex:" NDC"
Factsheet."""
In"general,"we"find"that"developed"countries’"NDCs"tend"to"be"very"vague,"only"specifying"
their"general"commitment"on"mitigation"(usually"a"GHG"emission"reduction"with"respect"
to"a"base"year"or"a"business-as-usual"scenario)."For"developing"countries,"the"mitigation"
plans"in"the"NDCs"can"be"relatively"more"elaborate"and"detailed,"often"building"on"climate"
policies"implemented"already"prior"to"the"Paris"Agreement.""
Adaptation" measures" are" hardly" ever" mentioned" in" developed" countries’" NDCs," as"
opposed" to" those" of" developing" countries" where" they" figure" extensively." This" might"
reflect" the" findings"from" the" foresight" analyses"mentioned" above" that"developed"
countries" are" less" likely" to" experience" losses"in" agricultural" production" from"climate"
change..""
Developing" countries’" NDCs"also" often"feature" fairness" and" ambition" considerations"
stating"they"bear"lower"responsibility"in"the"creation"of"the"climate"change"phenomenon"
and" referring" to" the" climate" justice" argument" (Okereke," 2006)."Consequently," their"
general"commitments"are"usually"split"into"an"unconditional,"lower"GHG"reduction"target,"
and" a"higher"one" that"is" conditional" on" the"receipt" of" international" support"(e.g." in"the"
form" of" financing," technology" transfer" and/or" capacity" development)." Developing"
5
"The"agreement"entered"into"force"in"November"2016"and"has,"as"of"13"July"2018,"been"ratified"by"179"of"
197" parties." The" P aris" Agreement" aims" to" reduce" GHG" em issions" such" that" global" warming" i n" the" 21st"
century"will"reach"no"more"than"2°C"above"pre-industrial"levels,"and"ideally"no"more"than"1.5°C"(UNFCCC,"
2017)."In"addition,"the"agreement"aims"to"strengthen"the"climate"change"adaptation"and"mitigation"ability"
of" developing " countries" through" financia l" support," transfer" of" te chnology" and" related" ca pacity" building"
activities."
6
"Since"the"first"screening"the"United"States"of"America"announced"its"withdrawal"from"the"Paris"Agreement"
and"was"removed"from"the"sample.""
17"
countries" also"often" specify"that" certain" development"objectives"limiting"the" scope"for"
climate"action"may"be"in"place,"in"particular"in"the"absence"of"foreign"support."
"
5.2 Reconciling&climate&and&international&trade&policies&
In"addition"to"the"potential"role"of"trade"and"trade"policy"in"climate"change"mitigation"and"
adaption,"international"trade"itself"may" be" affected"by"climate"policies,"which"may" thus"
become" su bject" to" international " trade" rules" under" WTO" legi slation." The" first"domestic"
mitigation" and" adaptation" plans" submitted" by" the" countries" in" response" to" the" Paris"
Agreement," the" NDCs," con firm" strong" interlinkages" betw een" climate" and" internati onal"
trade"policy."While"the"NDCs"are"under"development,"many"of"the"policy"measures"under"
discussion" for" the" Paris" Agreement" have" been" applied" (e.g." carbon" or" energy"taxes" in"
several" countries;" agriculture" often" exempted)" or" discussed" in" the" context" of" other"
climate"change"negotiations"(e.g."the"Kyoto" Protocol)"and"the"climate"change" literature"
before.""
Domestic"policies"in"response"to"climate"change"can"generally"be"divided"into:"(1)"Policies"
to"internalize"environmental"costs"through"price"and"market"mechanisms"(internal"taxes"
on" GHG" emissions" and" emission" trading" schemes);" (2)" Policies" to" promote" the"
development"and"use"of"climate-friendly"goods"and"technologies"(often" subsidies);"and"
(3)"Technical"requirements"(regulations"and"standards)"to"promote"the"use" of" climate-
friendly" goods"and"technologies"(WTO-UNEP," 2009)." The"Paris" Agreement" additionally"
provides"for"assistance"to"developing"countries"in"their"adaptation"and"mitigation"efforts"
(4)."Table"3"gives"an"overview"of"potential"climate"policies"and"related"WTO"disciplines.""
"
Table&3.&Overview&of&climate&policies&and&related&WTO&disciplines&
Policy&
category&
Potential&climate&policy&&
Related&WTO&positions&and&
disciplines&
(1)&Taxes&
and&
emission&
trading&
schemes&
Aim:"Internalize"environmental"costs"of"
GHG"emissions"
Examples:"Carbon"taxes,"emission"
trading"schemes"
è Disparities"in"domestic"levels"of"carbon"
pricing"and"risk"of"‘carbon"leakage’"
(increased"imports"from"countries"
without"carbon"policy"through"cross-
border"relocation"of"production)"
è Border"measures"to"counterbalance"
these"disparities"may"be"implemented"
(e.g."carbon"tariffs)"
Legality"of"carbon"tariffs"has"not"
been"tested"in"a"WTO"dispute"
settlement"
Main"WTO"disciplines:"GATT,"Article"
XX;"Agreement"on"Agriculture"(AoA)"
-"Market"access"
"
(2)&
Subsidies&
Aim:"Promote"the"development"and"use"
of"climate-friendly"goods"and"
technologies"
Examples:"Expenditures"on"research"and"
development,"support"for"biomass"
production"as"a"measure"to"mitigate"
Main"WTO"disciplines:"Agreement"
on"Subsidies"and"Countervailing"
Measures"(SCM);"AoA"-"Domestic"
support""
18"
climate"change,"payments"for"
environmental"services"with"objectives"
linked"to"climate"change"
(3)&
Regulations&
and&
standards&
Aims:"Promote"the"use"of"climate-
friendly"goods"and"technologies,"
promote"food"safety"(climate"change"
may"lead"to"higher"pest"and"disease"
pressure"on"crops"with"potential"effects"
on"food"safety)"
Examples:"Carbon"labelling"initiatives"
(e.g."based"on"carbon"footprint),"
regulations"concerning"food"safety"
è Problem"if"these"discriminate"against"
imports"
WTO"encourages"the"use"of"
international"standards"to"reduce"
the"likelihood"of"dispute"
settlements"
Main"WTO"disciplines:"Technical"
Barriers"to"Trade"agreement"(TBT);"
Sanitary"and"Phytosanitary"
measures"(SPS)"agreement"
"
(4)&Support&
to&
developing&
countries&
Assistance"for"climate"change"
mitigation/adaptation"to"developing"
countries"is"explicitly"provided"for"in"the"
Paris"Agreement"
Examples:"Support"for"development"of"
drought"resistant"crops,"more"efficient"
irrigation"systems"
Main"WTO"disciplines:"Special"and"
Differential"Treatment"(SDT)"for"
developing"countries;"in"particular,"
SDT"in"the"AoA"provides"for"special"
treatment"of"domestic"support"(as"
part"of"development"programmes)"
for"investment"subsidies"and"
agricultural"input"subsidies"
Sources:"Authors’"overview"based"on"Blandford"(2013)"and"WTO-UNEP"(2009)."
"
As" current" NDCs"provide" little"detail" on" implementation" mechanisms" of"certain"policy"
goals,"it" is" difficult" at" this" point" in" time" to" assess" potential" discrepancies" between"the"
NDCs"and"WTO"rules."First"screenings"of"the"already"submitted"NDCs"find"a"relationship"
between" trade" an d"c limate" change" policies "(TradeLab," 2017)"and" highlight" that," while"
most"NDCs"do"not"present"a"strong"focus"on"trade"or"trade-related"measures,"many"refer"
nonetheless"to"important"trade-related"elements"(Brandi,"2017).""
One"of" the"only"explicit"mentions"of"taxes"is"the"Republic"of"South" Africa’s"proposal"to"
develop" a" carbon" tax" among"other" policy" instruments" for" climate" change" mitigation.
7
"
About"a"third"of"NDCs"surveyed"present"stated"or"potential"participation"in"international"
Emissions"Trading"Schemes"(ETSs),"while"slightly"fewer"of"them"include"potential"tariffs"
and"border"measures,"and"payments"or"cash"transfers."
Disparities"in"domestic"levels"of"carbon"pricing"due"to"carbon"taxes"and"emission"trading"
schemes" and" the" resulting"risk" of" carbon" leakage" (increased" imports" from" countries"
without"carbon"policy"through"cross-border"relocation"of"production)"may"evoke"border"
adjustment"measures"(BAMs),"e.g."carbon"tariffs,"to"counterbalance"these"disparities."The"
challenge"with"BAMs"within"the"context"of"the"Paris"Agreement"is"that"they"could"imply"
the"discrimination"of"‘like’"products"that"differ"only"in"their"carbon"footprint.""This" is" in"
contrast"to"the"prohibition,"as"of"the"General"Agreement"on"Tariffs"and"Trade"(GATT),"of"
tariff"differences"and"regulatory"discrimination"among"members."In"the"sample"analyzed"
there"is"only"one"concrete"instance"of"border"measures"proposed,"namely"in"the"United"
7
"South"Africa’s"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contribution"(INDC),"p.6."
19"
Arab" Emirates’" NDC"which" states" that" authorities( […]( gradually( adjust( tariffs( for(
commercial(customers,(so(as(to(reflect(the(cost(of(generation"as"part"of"initiatives"to"reduce"
inefficiencies"and"promote"low-carbon"development
8
.""
While" the" trade" distorting" consequences" of" subsidies"and" other" forms" of" domestic"
support"are" well" known" there" are" distinctions" to" be" made." This" is" illustrated" by" the"
subdivision"of"subsidies"into"amber,"blue"and"green"“boxes”"within"the"WTO"framework"
of"the"Agreement"on"Agriculture,"based"on"their"repercussions"on"international"trade"and"
their"purpose."One"of"the"main"challenges"will"be"to"reconcile" climate" smart"subsidies
9
"
with"WTO"rules"in"a"non-discriminatory"fashion,"taking"into"account"the"different"needs"
of" certain" countries" based" on" wealth," economic" development" and" geographic"
circumstances."Commitments" to" promote" or" mainstream" sustainable" practices" or"
technologies,"formulated"in" a" variety"of" ways"that"would" easily"allow"for"subsidies,"are"
present" in" most" NDCs." Canada," for" instance" proposes" to" invest" significantly" in" a" low-
carbon"economy,"green"infrastructure"and"clean"technology;
10
"the"People’s" Republic" of"
China" intends" to" make" efforts" to" achieve" zero" growth" of" fertilizer" and" pesticide"
utilization;
11
"the" United" Mexican" States"wants" to" strengthen" the" diversification" of"
sustainable"agriculture;
12
"the" Socialist" Republic" of" Viet" Nam"has" included" the"
development"of"sustainable"agriculture"as"a"means"for"emission"reduction;
13
"and"so"forth."
While" subsidies" generally" apply" at"producer" level," the" adoption" of" standards" and"
consumer" information" tools" such" as" information" labels" may" be"a" policy" instrument" to"
‘nudge’" consumer" behavior" towards" healthier"or" more" sustainable" ways." No" ‘climate"
label’" proposal" has" as"of" yet" come" to" the" fore," although" calls" for" increased" consumer"
information"and"awareness"appear"sparsely"throughout"our"sample,"such"as"the"Federal"
Republic"of"Nigeria’s"commitment"to"significantly(increase(public(awareness(and(involve(
private(sector(participation(in(addressing(the(challenges(of(climate(change”.
14
"The"Republic"
of"Honduras"refers"to"food"safety"in"the"context"of"climate"change"by"aiming"to"introduce"
new(improved(pest(and(disease(control(practices”."""
As"shown"in"section"5.1," foreign"support"to"developing"countries"is" often" mentioned" in"
developing" countries’" NDCs." However," they" usually" broadly" refer" to" knowledge" and"
technology"transfer"without"further"specifying"the"sectors"or"measures"this"would"apply"
to.""""""""""""
"
"
8
""Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contribution"of"the"United"Arab"Emirates,"pp."2-3."
9
"Definition" of"climate-sma rt" agric ulture:" agricul ture" that" sus tainab ly" increases" product ivity," r esilience"
(adaptation),"reduces/removes"greenhouse"gases"(mitigation),"and"enhances"achievement"of"national"food"
security"and"development"goals."
10
"Canada’s" 2017" Nationally" Determined" Contribution" Submission" to" the" United" Nations" Framework"
Convention"on"Climate"Change,"p.8."
11
"Enhanced"Actions"on"Climate"Change:"China’s"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contributions,"p.9."
12
"Mexico’s"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contribution,"p.8."
13
"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contribution"of"Vietnam,"p.6.
14
"The"Federal"Republic"of"Nigeria’s"Intended"Nationally"Determined"Contribution,"p.4."
20"
Conclusions&
Climate"change" could" severely"impact"future" food"security"in"all" its"dimensions."Global"
food"prices" are"projected" to"rise"and" the"number"of" undernourished"to" increase."While"
there"is"no"clear"evidence"on"the"net"effect"of"trade"on"GHG"emissions,"trade"could"play"an"
important" role" in" climate" change" adaptation" for" ensuring" food" security." The" share" of"
global" trade" in" world" agricultural" production" is" projected" to" increase" by" around" one"
percent.""
High-latitude" countries" can" expect" productivity" gains" from" climate" change" and" could"
export" a"part"of"their"surpluses"to"adversely"affected"countries."Low-latitude"countries"
will"be"most"severely"affected"in"terms"of"production"losses"and"may"need"to"buffer"these"
losses" through" food" imports." An" opening" to" trade"could" be" beneficial" for" easing" the"
exchange"between"food"surplus"and"food"deficit"regions."Global"price"rises"and"losses"in"
GDP"due"to"climate"change"are"both"projected"to"be"lower"under"open"markets."However,"
potential" negative" environmental" externalities" and" the" financial" and" distributional"
impacts" on" developing" countries" including" adequate" policy" responses" require" further"
research."""""
Even"though"current"NDCs"remain"vague,"it"is"evident"that"climate"and"trade"policies"are"
closely"interlinked."They"need"to"be"reconciled"to"allow"for"and"promote"climate"change"
mitigation"through"internationally"coordinated"domestic"climate"policies"and,"at"the"same"
time,"ensure"the"free"tradability"as"a"crucial"climate"change"adaptation"measure."For"an"
ideal"outcome,"this"has"to"be"coordinated"at"international"level.""""""
& &
21"
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"
28
Annex:&NDC&Factsheet&
Following"the"conclusion"of"the"Paris"Agreement
15
"all"Parties"were"required"to"put"forward"their"
best" efforts" through" “nationally" determined" contributions”" (NDCs)
16
"and" to" strengthen" these"
efforts"in"the" years"ahead." The"countries’"NDCs"are"very"recent"documents"(some"Parties"to"the"
Agreement"are"yet"to"submit"theirs)"and"do"not"follow"a"common"structure"or"template.""In"order"
to" understand" the" challenges" underlying" this" global" coordinated" effort," they" need" to" be"
summarized"and"the"individual"contributions"and"policy"proposal"mapped"against"each"other.""
This" factsheet" moves" a" first" step" in" this" direction" by" providing" an" overview" of" the" NDCs" of" a"
selected"number"of"countries."The"NDCs"were"screened"for"their"main"characteristics,"in"particular"
in"the"context"of"their"implications"for"the"agriculture"sector"and"international"commodity"trade."
Given"the"sheer"number"of"NDCs"available"(at" the" time" of"writing "167" out" of" 197" Parties" have"
submitted"their"NDC)
17
,"a"sample"of"NDCs"providing"a"first"overview"relevant"to"agricultural"trade"
was"reviewed.""
Overall"the"sample"consists"of"35"countries."It"includes"all" nine" countries" classified"as"developed(
economies(by" the" UN"Country"Classification"methodology,
18
"the"five"major" emerging" economies"
(BRICS" countries)" as" well" as" the" ten"countries" most" affected" by" long-term" climate" change"
according" to" the" Climate" Risk" Index" compiled" by" Germanwatch,
19
"a" non-profit" organization"
focusing"on"social,"economic"and"environmental"issues."In"addition,"the"world’s"largest"commodity"
importers"and"exporters"not"already"covered"by"the"two"previous"groups"were"included"as"well"
as"the"largest"exporters"and"importers"of"agricultural"commodities"among"the"countries"listed"as"
Least"Developed"Countries"by"the"United"Nations.
20
"
The" countries’" commitments" brought" forward" in" the" NDCs" have" been" divided" into" five" broad"
categories"in" Table" A" 1:" (1)" their" general" commitments," present"in" the" vast" majority" of" NDCs"
analysed" and " usually" expres sed" as" an" emiss ions" reduction" target," (2)" commitments" rel ated" to"
taxes"and"emission"trading"schemes"(ETS)"including"tariffs"and"border"adjustment"measures,"(3)"
subsidies" at"their" broadest" definition," (4)" regulations" and" standards," and" (5)" support" to"
developing"countries,"expressed"usually"as"a"request"for" support."Subsidies,"the"broadest"class,"
includes"domestic"support"as"defined"in"the"WTO"Agreement"on"Agriculture,"but"also"everything"
15
"Paris"Agreement"under"the"United"Nations"Framework"Convention"on"Climate"Change"(UNFCCC)."Retrieved"on"
31.10.2017"at"
http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf"
16
"The"basis"for"negotiations"at"COP21"and"the"consequent"foundation"for"the"Paris"Agreement"on"climate"change"
are"actually"the"documents"known"as"“intended"nationally"determined"contributions”"(INDCs)."Only"upon"
ratification"by"the"submitting"party"these"become"NDCs."At"the"time"of"writing"174"out"of"197"parties"have"ratified"
the"Agreement."For"the"sake"of"simplicity"this"distinction"has"been"ignored"through"this"paper."
17
"NDC"Registry"(interim)."Retrieved"on"01.11.2017"at"http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/All.aspx"
18
"UN"World"Economic"Situation"and"Prospects"2017."Retrieved"on"01.11.2017"at"
https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/2017wesp_full_en.pdf"
19
"Kreft,"S.,"Eckstein,"D."and"Melchior,"I."(2017)."Global(Climate(Risk(Index(2017."Briefing"paper."Bonn:"Germanwatch,"
p.6."Available"at:"http://germanwatch.org/eng/cri."
20
"United"Nations"Committee"for"Development"Policy"List"of"Least"Developed"Countries"(as"of"June"2017)."Retrieved"
on"24.11.2017"at"https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-
content/uploads/sites/45/publication/ldc_list.pdf
29
else" that" could" possibly" qualify" as" or" lead" to" a" subsidy," e.g." an" intended" increase" in" the"
mechanization"in"agriculture"or"an"increase"in"the"use"of"low-emission"crops.""
Given"the"very"general"character"and"the"breadth"of"most"countries’"NDCs,"it"is"difficult"to"identify"
which"commitments"could"pertain"to"agriculture."It"is"also"not"always"necessarily"straightforward"
to" identify" the" most" appropriate" category" under" which" to" classify" each" climate" action." The"
categorization"of"the"climate"actions"can"therefore"only"provide"a"best"guess"on"what"these"broad"
commitments" could"eventually" translate" into." "The" categorization" rather" provides" a" dynamic"
assessment"framework"that"should"be"updated"as"more"information"on"concrete"climate"policies"
becomes"available."
30
Table&A&1.&Commitment&made&in&the&NDCs!
Country&
Policy&category&
Climate&action&
Explicit&
agricultural&
policy&
Type&of&
effort&
Argentina&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$effort$to$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$18$percent$compared$to$a$Business$as$
usual$(BAU)$scenario.$
$$
$$
Effort$to$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$37$percent$compared$to$a$BAU$scenario,$conditional$on$
international$support$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Participation$in$international$transfers$of$mitigation$results$referred$to$in$the$Paris$Agreement,$
Article$6,$Paragraphs$2$and$4.$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Support$the$recovery$and$rehabilitation$of$lands,$including$the$adaptation$based$in$ecosystems$
$
Adaptation$$
Boosting$R&D$and$technologies$projects$as$well$as$good$productive$practices$$
$
Adaptation$$
Using$finance$instruments$or$market$risk$transfer$and$production$of$the$agricultural$sector$to$reduce$
vulnerability$
$$
Adaptation$$
Australia&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$26$to$28$per$cent$below$2005$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Participating$in$international$abatement$trading$schemes$through$the$established$Emissions$
Reduction$Fund$
$$
$$
Bangladesh&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$effort$to$$reduce$its$GHG$emissions$by$12$MtCO2e$by$2030$or$5$percent$below$BAU$
emissions$
$$
$$
Conditional$effort$to$reduce$its$GHG$emissions$by$36$MtCO2e$by$2030$or$15$percent$below$BAU$
emissions$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Increase$mechanisation$in$agriculture$leading$to$a$reduction$in$numbers$of$draft$cattle$(and$therefore$
lower$methane$emissions)$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Increase$the$share$of$organic$
manure$in$the$used$fertilizer$mix$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Scale$up$rice$cultivation$using$alternate$wetting$and$drying$irrigation$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Brazil&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$37$percent$below$2005$levels$in$2025,$and$by$43$percent$below$
2005$levels$in$2030.$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Brazil$reserves$its$position$in$relation$to$the$possible$use$of$any$market$mechanisms$that$may$be$
established$under$the$Paris$agreement$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Compensating$for$greenhouse$gas$emissions$from$legal$suppression$of$vegetation$by$2030$
NO$
(forestry)$
Mitigation$$
31
Canada&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Canada$is$committed$to$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$30$percent$below$2005$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Significant$investments$in$a$low-carbon$economy,$green$infrastructure,$and$clean$technology$
$$
Mitigation$$
Chile&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$reduction$in$CO2$emissions$per$GDP$unit$by$30$percent$below$their$2007$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
Reduction$in$CO2$emissions$per$GDP$unit$by$2030$until$it$reaches$a$35$percent$to$45$percent$
reduction$with$respect$to$the$2007$levels,$conditional$on$the$grant$of$international$monetary$funds$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
CO2$emission$tax$approved$by$the$Tax$Reform,$Law$20.780$dated$October$2014,$which$shall$become$
effective$on$January$1,$2017,$and$be$equivalent$to$5$USD$per$CO2$ton.$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Sustainable$development$and$recovery$of$100,000$hectares$of$forest$land,$mainly$native,$which$will$
account$for$greenhouse$gas$sequestrations$and$reductions$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
To$reforest$100,000$hectares,$mostly$with$native$species,$which$will$account$for$greenhouse$gas$
sequestrations$and$reductions$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
China&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Lower$carbon$dioxide$emissions$per$unit$of$GDP$by$60$percent$to$65$percent$from$the$2005$level$
$$
$$
To$increase$the$share$of$non-fossil$fuels$in$primary$energy$consumption$to$around$20$percent$
$$
Mitigation$$
To$increase$the$forest$stock$volume$by$around$4.5$billion$cubic$meters$on$the$2005$level$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
To$advance$the$reform$in$the$pricing$and$taxation$regime$for$energy-$and$resource-based$products$
$
Mitigation$$
Gradually$establishing$the$carbon$emission$trading$mechanism$so$as$to$make$the$market$play$the$
decisive$role$in$resource$allocation$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
To$actively$push$forward$the$appropriate$scale$production$and$industrialization$of$agriculture$in$
Major$Agricultural$Production$Zones$
YES$
Mitigation$$
To$promote$the$low-carbon$development$in$agriculture,$making$efforts$to$achieve$zero$growth$of$
fertilizer$and$pesticide$utilization$by$2020$
YES$
Mitigation$$
To$construct$a$recyclable$agriculture$system,$promoting$comprehensive$utilization$of$straw,$
reutilization$of$agricultural$and$forestry$wastes$and$comprehensive$utilization$of$animal$waste$
YES$
Mitigation$$
To$vigorously$enhance$afforestation,$promoting$voluntary$tree$planting$by$all$citizens,$continuing$the$
implementation$of$key$ecological$programs,$and$restoring$forest$and$grassland$from$farmland$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
32
To$continue$to$restore$grassland$from$grazing$land,$to$promote$mechanism$of$maintaining$the$
balance$between$grass$stock$and$livestock,$to$prevent$grassland$degradation,$to$restore$vegetation$of$
grassland$
YES$
Mitigation$$
To$improve$the$construction$of$water$conservation$facilities$for$farmlands,$to$vigorously$develop$
water-saving$agricultural$irrigation$and$to$cultivate$heat$resistant$and$drought-resistant$crops$
YES$
Adaptation$$
To$develop$technologies$on$biological$nitrogen$fixation,$green$pest$and$disease$prevention$and$
control$and$protected$agriculture$
YES$
Adaptation$$
To$improve$green$government$procurement$policy$systems$including$that$on$procurement$of$low-
carbon$and$energy-conservation$products$
$
Mitigation$$
(4)$Regulations$
and$standards$
To$develop$mechanisms$for$the$reporting,$verifying$and$certificating$of$carbon$emissions$and$to$
improve$rules$and$regulations$for$carbon$emission$trading$to$ensure$openness,$fairness$and$justice$in$
the$operation$of$the$carbon$emission$trading$market$
$$
Mitigation$$
Egypt&
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
A$national$market$for$carbon$trading$may$be$established$
$
Mitigation$$
$
(3)$Subsidies$
Changing$cultivars$to$those$that$are$more$tolerant$to$heat,$salinity$and$pests,$and$changing$crop$
pattern$
YES$
Adaptation$$
$
Activate$genetic$diversity$of$plant$species$with$maximum$productivity$
YES$
Adaptation$$
$
Achieve$biological$diversity$of$all$livestock,$fishery,$and$poultry$elements$to$protect$them$and$ensure$
food$security$
YES$
Adaptation$$
$
Develop$agro-economic$systems$and$new$structures$to$manage$crops,$fisheries$and$animal$
production,$which$are$resilient$to$climate$changes$
YES$
Adaptation$$
$
Increase$the$efficiency$of$irrigation$water$use,$while$maintaining$crop$productivity$and$protecting$
land$from$degradation$
YES$
Adaptation$$
$
Mitigation$measures$in$the$agricultural$sector:$enteric$fermentation,$manure$management,$rice$
cultivation,$agricultural$soils,$and$field$burning$of$agricultural$residues$
YES$
Mitigation$$
&&
Increasing$water$storage$capacity,$improving$irrigation$and$draining$systems,$and$changing$cropping$
patterns$and$farm$irrigation$systems$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Ethiopia&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
64$percent$greenhouse$gas$emissions$reduction$from$the$BAU$scenario$by$2030$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Ethiopia$intends$to$sell$carbon$credits$during$the$period$to$contribute$towards$achieving$its$Green$
Economy$Strategy$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Improving$crop$and$livestock$production$practices$for$greater$food$security$and$higher$farmer$
incomes$while$reducing$emissions$
YES$
Mitigation$$
33
Improve$and$diversify$economic$opportunities$from$agroforestry$and$sustainable$afforestation$of$
degraded$forest$areas$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Breeding$and$making$available$improved$crop$varieties,$primarily$from$among$those$in$Ethiopia$that$
suit$all$agricultural$areas$where$varieties$that$were$grown$in$the$past$have$become$unsuitable$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Digging$wells$and$enhancing$water$harvesting$techniques$and$thereby$making$available$dependable$
watering$points$in$all$rural$woredas$(districts)$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Enhance$irrigation$systems$through$rainwater$harvesting$and$conservation$of$water,$including$
improved$water$use$efficiency$
events$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Developing$one$or$more$insurance$systems$to$enable$citizens,$especially$farmers$and$pastoralists,$to$
rebuild$economic$life$following$$exposure$$to$$disasters$$caused$$by$$extreme$$weather$$
events$
$
Adaptation$$
Strengthening$capacity$to$deal$with$the$expansion$and$emergence$of$human,$animal,$crop$and$plant$
diseases$known$to$occur$in$and$around$Ethiopia$and$in$similar$environments$elsewhere$and$make$
available$medicines$in$a$sufficient$quantity$to$deal$with$these$diseases$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Strengthening$and$increasing$the$capacity$for$breeding$and$distributing$disease$resistant$crop$and$
fodder$varieties$to$farmers$and$other$land$users$in$order$to$deal$with$the$emergence$and$expansion$of$
diseases$and$pests$
YES$
Adaptation$$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
The$full$and$effective$implementation$of$the$Green$Economy$Strategy$requires$an$estimated$
expenditure$of$more$than$USD$150$billion$by$2030.$This$highlights$the$need$for$significant$capital$
investments.$
$
$
European&
Union&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Absolute$reduction$in$greenhouse$gas$emissions$to$at$least$40$percent$below$1990$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
EU$ETS$scheme$for$intra-regional$carbon$trading:$Absolute$reduction$in$greenhouse$gas$emissions$to$
20$percent$below$1990$levels$by$2020,$and$to$at$least$40$percent$below$1990$levels$by$2030.$No$
contribution$from$International$Market$Based$Mechanisms,$Agriculture$explicitly$not$covered$by$the$
EU$ETS$
$$
Mitigation$$
Guatemala&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$effort$towards$a$11.2$percent$greenhouse$gas$emissions$reduction$from$a$BAU$scenario$
by$2030$
$$
$$
Effort$to$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$22.6$percent$from$a$BAU$scenario$by$2030,$conditional$
on$additional$support,$both$public$and$private$
$$
$$
34
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Guatemala$reserves$its$position$in$relation$to$the$possible$use$of$any$market$mechanisms$that$may$be$
established$under$the$Paris$agreement$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Development$of$a$multi-stakeholder$crop$monitoring$system$promoting$production$for$subsistence$
and$auto-consumption$in$priority$zones$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Implementation$of$an$irrigation$policy$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Haiti&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$effort$to$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$5$percent$with$respect$to$a$BAU$scenario$
by$2030$
$$
$$
To$reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$a$further$26$percent$with$respect$to$a$BAU$scenario$by$2030,$
conditional$on$foreign$support$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Haiti$intends$to$participate$in$international$carbon$trading$schemes$to$partly$finance$the$
implementation$of$the$measures$outlined$in$the$NDC$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Pasture$improvement,$in$particular$for$beef$herds,$through$the$introduction$of$pulses$and$legumes$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Promotion$of$agroforestry$practices$
YES$
Mitigation$$
To$develop$climate$smart$and$organic$forms$of$agriculture$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Promote$the$conservation$of$agricultural$genetic$resources$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Development$of$aquaculture$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Development$of$cultures$adapted$to$saltwater$
YES$
Adaptation$$
To$restore,$valorize$and$extend$existing$agroforestry$systems$by$a$minimum$additional$surface$of$
60'000$ha$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Development$of$cultures$and$agricultural$techniques$adapted$to$climate$change$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Improve$the$efficiency$of$water$usage$techniques$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Development$of$technologies$geared$towards$the$conservation,$the$transformation$and$the$
valorization$of$agricultural$products$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Honduras&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
15$percent$greenhouse$gas$emissions$reduction$from$a$BAU$scenario$by$2030$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Promotion$of$organic$agriculture$systems,$including$through$fiscal$and$financial$incentives$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Introduction$of$a$set$of$best$practices$in$agriculture,$including$reduction$in$the$use$of$chemical$
fertilizers,$the$use$of$indigenous$seeds$and$the$abolition$of$agricultural$burning$practices$
YES$
Adaptation$$
(4)$Regulations$
and$standards$
Introduction$of$new$improved$pest$and$disease$control$practices$
YES$
Adaptation$$
35
Iceland&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
40$percent$reduction$of$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$2030$compared$to$1990$levels$as$a$collective$
effort$with$European$countries$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Iceland$takes$part$in$the$EU$Emissions$Trading$Scheme,$as$part$of$the$European$Economic$Area;$this$
participation$is$seen$as$continuing$after$2020,$regulating$over$40$percent$of$Iceland’s$emissions.$
$$
Mitigation$
India&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Copenhagen$emission$reduction$pledge;$since$2010:$voluntary$goal$of$reducing$the$emissions$
intensity$of$its$GDP$by$2025$percent$$over$2005$levels$by$2020$
$$
$$
Ratification$of$the$Copenhagen$pledge$to$reduce$emissions$intensity$of$GDP$by$33$percent$to$35$
percent$below$2005$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Promotion$of$clean$biomass$energy$
YES$
$
The$Waste$to$Energy$capacity$is$sought$to$be$enhanced.$Government$is$also$encouraging$conversion$
of$waste$to$compost$by$linking$it$with$sale$of$fertilizers$and$providing$market$development$assistance$
$
Mitigation$
Enhancing$food$security$and$protection$of$resources$such$as$land,$water,$biodiversity$and$genetics$
YES$
Mitigation$
Scheme$under$which$soil$cards$are$issued$to$farmers$which$will$carry$crop-wise$recommendations$of$
nutrients$and$fertilizers$required$for$the$individual$farms$to$help$farmers$to$improve$productivity$
through$judicious$use$of$inputs$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Enhancing$livelihoods$in$the$rural$areas$
YES$
Adaptation$$
Electrification$of$rural$areas$based$on$a$decentralized$renewable$energy$system$
YES$
Adaptation$$
(4)$Regulations$
and$standards$
Improve$standards$for$over$2000$industries$focusing$on$reducing$quantity$of$waste$water$generation,$
conservation$of$water,$promote$Zero$Liquid$Discharge$(ZLD)$and$use$of$treated$effluent$for$irrigation$
YES$
Mitigation$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
Climate$friendly$technologies,$adapted$and$deployed$in$India$are$also$being$utilized$in$other$countries,$
particularly$in$developing$countries,$through$bilateral$cooperation$
$$
Mitigation/
adaptation$$
Indonesia&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
To$reduce$emissions$by$26$percent$on$its$own$efforts$against$the$business$as$usual$scenario$by$2020$
$$
$$
To$reduce$unconditionally$29$percent$of$its$greenhouse$gasses$emissions$against$the$business$as$
usual$scenario$by$the$year$of$2030$
$$
$$
Further$reduce$emissions$up$to$41$percent$by$2030,$subject$to$availability$of$international$support$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Promote$sustainable$agriculture$and$plantations$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Increase$the$use$of$low-emission$crops$
YES$
Mitigation$$
36
Implementation$of$water-efficient$concept$in$water$management$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Feed$supplement$for$cattle$
YES$
Adaptation$
Implementation$of$water-efficient$concept$in$water$management$
YES$
Adaptation$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
International$support$from$developed$country$parties$is$required$to$increase$ambition$in$reducing$
GHGs$emission,$including$in$the$preparation$of$NDC$implementation$(pre$2020)$in$all$sector$
categories$
$$
Mitigation/
adaptation$$
Japan&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Absolute$reduction$in$greenhouse$gas$emissions$to$26$percent$below$2013$levels$by$2030$
YES$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Promotion$of$soil$management$leading$to$the$increase$of$carbon$stock$in$cropland$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
Promotion$of$revegetation$
NO$
(Forestry)$
Mitigation$$
Malaysia&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Unconditional$effort$to$reduce$GHG$emissions$intensity$by$35$percent$below$2005$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
Effort$to$reduce$GHG$emissions$intensity$by$45$percent$below$2005$levels$by$2030,$conditional$on$the$
receipt$of$support$from$developed$countries$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Strengthening$resilience$against$climate$change$and$natural$disasters$
$
Adaptation$
Intensifying$research$and$development$for$improving$agriculture$production$
YES$
Adaptation$
New$granary$areas$and$adequate$and$efficient$irrigation$and$drainage$infrastructure$will$be$
developed$to$increase$the$production$of$rice$
YES$
Adaptation$
(4)$Regulations$
and$standards$
Adoption$of$sustainable$consumption$and$production$
$$
Mitigation$$
Mexico&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduce$unconditionally$25$percent$of$its$Greenhouse$Gases$and$Short$Lived$Climate$Pollutants$
emissions$from$BAU$by$2030$
$$
$$
Further$conditional$40$percent$GHG$emissions$reduction$subject$to$a$global$agreement$addressing$a$
set$of$crucial$topics.$Topics$include$international$carbon$price,$carbon$border$adjustments,$technical$
cooperation,$access$to$low-cost$financial$resources$and$technology$transfers$
$$
$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Diversification$of$sustainable$agriculture$by$conserving$germplasm$and$native$maize$species,$thermal$
comfort$for$livestock,$development$of$agro-ecosystems$
YES$
Adaptation$
Myanmar&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
The$information$required$to$estimate$GHG$emissions$was$collected$and$an$estimate$produced,$but$
was$not$included$the$estimate$in$the$INDC,$as$deemed$not$sufficiently$reliable$
$$
$$
37
(3)$Subsidies$
Recovery$of$areas$affected$by$climate$change$through$livestock$management,$loans$for$farmers,$
animal$feed$management$research$and$provision$of$training$to$minimize$risk$of$disease$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
To$mitigate$GHG$emissions$from$the$agriculture$sector$from$combustion$of$agricultural$residues$and$
growing$rice$in$paddy$fields$
YES$
Mitigation$$
$
Implementing$climate$smart$agriculture$approaches$through$implementation$actions$such$as$legume$
crops$diversification,$measures$in$the$agro-forestry$sector$and$systematic$control$of$soil$quality$and$
irrigation$water$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
Improve$disaster$management$capabilities,$namely$on$the$basis$of$the$Law$of$Protection$of$Farmers’$
Rights$and$Enhancement$of$their$Benefits$(2013)$
$
Adaptation$
$
To$reduce$climate$change$vulnerability$and$reduce$poverty$in$rural$areas$and$for$subsistence$farmers$
as$a$priority$
YES$
Adaptation$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
The$implementation$of$the$presented$actions$will$be$contingent$to$support$for$capacity-building,$
technology$development$and$transfer,$and$financial$resources$from$the$international$community$
$$
Mitigation$$
New&
Zealand&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Absolute$reduction$in$greenhouse$gas$emissions$to$30$percent$below$2005$levels$by$2030$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
New$Zealand$intends$to$use$international$market$mechanisms,$cooperative$approaches$and$carbon$
markets$that$enable$trading$and$use$of$a$wide$variety$of$units/emission$reductions/mitigation$
outcomes$
$$
Mitigation$$
Norway&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
40$percent$reduction$of$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$2030$compared$to$1990$levels.$The$emission$
reduction$target$will$be$developed$into$an$emissions$budget$covering$the$period$2021-2030.$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Norwegian$emissions$are$covered$by$the$EU$ETS,$and$Norway$will$through$our$participation$in$the$
ETS$contribute$to$the$necessary$emission$reduction$
$$
Mitigation$$
Pakistan&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
To$reduce$up$to$20$percent$of$its$2030$projected$GHG$emissions$subject$to$availability$of$international$
grants$to$meet$the$total$abatement$cost$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Use$of$Clean$Development$Mechanism$(CDM)$and$other$market$mechanisms$to$support$climate$
change$activities$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Rationalizing$the$use$of$fertilizers$and$improving$soil$carbon$management$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Promoting$use$of$biogas$as$a$fuel$or$as$organic$fertilizer$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Manage$water$in$rice$cultivation$to$control$release$of$methane$from$agricultural$soils$and$introduce$
low$water$dependent$rice$varieties$
YES$
Mitigation$$
38
Promote$use$of$green$manure,$better$manure$storage$and$management$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Reduce$nitrous$oxide$release$from$agricultural$soils$by$efficient$and$targeted$use$of$chemical$
fertilizers$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Introduce$feedstock$mixes,$dietary$oils,$and$additives$for$livestock,$to$reduce$methane$production$
from$enteric$fermentation$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Introduce$genetically$modified$crops$that$are$more$carbon$responsive$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Improving$the$irrigation$system$through$actions$such$as$lining$of$canals$and$irrigation$channels$
YES$
Adaptation$
Development$and$optimization$of$water$resource$allocation,$
implementation$of$strict$water$management$regulations$and$
utilization$of$unconventional$water$resources$such$as$
recycling$of$used$water$and$harvesting$rain$water$and$flood$
water$
YES$
Adaptation$
Strengthening$risk$management$system$for$the$agriculture$sector$
YES$
Adaptation$
Implement$agroforestry$practices$through$plantation$of$multipurpose$and$fast$growing$tree$species$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Promote$no-till$farming$to$improve$soil$carbon$storage$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Develop$and$adopt$new$breeds$of$cattle$which$are$more$productive$in$terms$of$milk$and$meat,$and$
have$lower$methane$production$from$enteric$fermentation$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Identify$and$implement$ideal$cropping$patterns$to$manage$soil$nitrogen$and$reduce$needs$for$
chemical$fertilizers$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Implementing$a$comprehensive$Climate$Smart$Agriculture$program$
YES$
Adaptation$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
Financing$of$climate$change$regime$using$national$and$international$resources$
$$
Mitigation/
adaptation$$
Republic&of&
Korea&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
The$Republic$of$Korea$plans$to$reduce$its$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$37$percent$from$the$business-
as-usual$(BAU,$850.6$MtCO2eq)$level$by$2030$across$all$economic$sectors.$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
The$Republic$of$Korea$will$partly$use$carbon$credits$from$international$market$mechanisms$to$
achieve$its$2030$mitigation$target,$in$accordance$with$relevant$rules$and$standards.$
$
Mitigation$$
Saudi&
Arabia&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
To$achieve$mitigation$co-benefits$ambitions$of$up$to$130$million$tons$of$CO2eq$avoided$by$2030$
annually$through$contributions$to$economic$diversification$and$adaptation$
$$
$$
39
(3)$Subsidies$
Water$and$waste$water$management$
$
Adaptation$
with$
mitigation$
co-benefits$
Reduce$desertification$
$
Adaptation$
with$
mitigation$
co-benefits$
Integrated$water$management$planning$
$$
Adaptation$
South&Africa&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Peak,$Plateau$and$Decline$(PPD)$GHG$emission$trajectory$from$2020$year-end.$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Development$of$a$carbon$tax$
$
Mitigation$$
(4)$Regulations$
and$standards$
Policy$instruments$under$development$include$a$carbon$tax,$desired$emission$reduction$outcomes$
(DEROs)$for$sectors,$company$level$carbon$budgets,$as$well$as$regulatory$standards$and$controls$for$
specifically$identified$GHG$pollutants$and$emitters$
$$
Mitigation$$
Singapore&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
To$reduce$its$Emissions$Intensity$by$36$percent$from$2005$levels$by$2030,$and$stabilize$its$emissions$
with$the$aim$of$peaking$around$2030$
$$
$$
To$reduce$emissions$to$7$percent$to$11$percent$below$its$business-as-usual$(BAU)$level$by$2020$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Singapore$intends$to$achieve$the$mitigation$objectives$under$its$INDC$through$domestic$efforts,$but$
will$continue$to$study$the$potential$of$international$market$mechanisms$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
To$diversify$sources$for$food$supply$resilience.$This$is$supplemented$by$limited$local$production$of$
key$food$items$and$rice$stockpiling$
YES$
Adaptation$
Food$security$research$and$development,$and$to$incentivise$the$adoption$of$technology$to$increase$
productivity$and$resilience$of$local$farms$
YES$
Adaptation$
Sudan&
(3)$Subsidies$
Integration$of$renewable$energy$in$the$power$system$of$the$Sudan$
$
Mitigation$$
$
Diversification$of$income$generating$activities$in$order$to$increase$adaptive$capacity$of$vulnerable$
farmers’$communities$in$order$to$achieve$food$security/reduce$poverty$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
Introduction$of$agroforestry$in$areas$vulnerable$to$climate$change$to$enhance$agriculture$production$
as$well$as$empower$vulnerable$communities$through$their$involvement$in$community$forests$
activities/products$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
Establishment$of$range’s$enclosures/ranches$to$increase$resilience$of$vulnerable$communities$
YES$
Adaptation$
40
$
Restocking$animal$herds$in$areas$affected$by$climate$change$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
Crop$diversification$and$introduction$of$improved$drought-resistant$varieties/early$maturing$
varieties$(both$field$and$
horticultural$crops)$in$areas$affected$by$rainfall$decease/$variability$
YES$
Adaptation$
$
Replanting$and$rehabilitating$of$vulnerable$areas$with$palatable$range$species$and$management$of$
animal$routes$
YES$
Adaptation$
&&
Improving$veterinary$services$(including,$mobile$clinics$provision$of$vaccines$etc.)$to$enhance$the$
adaptive$capacity$in$vulnerable$areas$
YES$
Adaptation$
Switzerland&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduce$its$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$50$percent$by$2030$compared$to$1990$levels,$corresponding$
to$an$average$reduction$of$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$35$percent$over$the$period$2021-2030$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Switzerland$will$realize$its$INDC$mainly$domestically$and$will$partly$use$carbon$credits$from$
international$mechanisms$
$
Mitigation$$
Switzerland$intends$to$use$the$Clean$Development$Mechanism$(CDM)$and,$as$appropriate,$the$new$
market$
mechanisms$under$the$Convention$(NMM,$activities$under$the$FVA)$
$$
Mitigation$$
Thailand&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduce$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$20$percent$from$the$
projected$business-as-usual$(BAU)$level$by$2030$
$$
$$
The$level$of$contribution$could$increase$up$to$25$percent,$subject$to$adequate$and$enhanced$access$to$
technology$development$and$transfer,$financial$resources$and$capacity$building$support$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$ETS$
Thailand$will$continue$to$explore$the$potentials$of$bilateral,$regional$and$international$market$
mechanisms$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Promote$sustainable$agriculture$and$Good$Agricultural$Practice$(GAP)$
YES$
Adaptation$
(5)$Support$to$
developing$
countries$
Securing$adequate$means$of$implementation$including$finance,$technology$development$and$transfer$
and$capacity$building$for$adaptation$will$be$necessary$in$the$new$global$agreement$under$the$UNFCCC$
$$
Mitigation/
adaptation$$
Uganda&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Reduction$in$greenhouse$gas$emissions$by$approximately$22$percent$by$2030.$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$
ETS$
Uganda$intends$to$use$international$market$mechanisms$where$appropriate,$building$
upon$the$experience$of$the$Clean$Development$Mechanism$and$other$existing$market$
mechanisms$
$
Mitigation$$
(3)$Subsidies$
Expanding$rangeland$management$
YES$
Adaptation$
Encouraging$agro-forestry$
NO$(Forestry)$
Adaptation$
41
Expanding$Climate$Smart$Agriculture$(CSA)$techniques$for$cropping$
YES$
Mitigation/adaptation$$
Expanding$diversification$of$crops$and$livestock$
YES$
Adaptation$
Expanding$value$addition,$post-harvest$handling$and$storage$and$access$to$markets,$
including$micro-finances$
YES$
Adaptation$
Expanding$small$scale$water$infrastructure$
YES$
Adaptation$
Expanding$research$on$climate$resilient$crops$and$animal$breeds$
YES$
Adaptation$
Extend$electricity$to$the$rural$areas$or$expanding$the$use$of$off-grid$solar$system$to$
support$value$addition$and$irrigation$
YES$
Adaptation$
Ensuring$water$supply$to$key$economic$sectors,$especially$agriculture,$and$domestic$use,$
including$water$harvesting$and$storage$
$
Adaptation$
Livestock$breeding$research$and$manure$management$practices$
YES$
Mitigation$$
Ukraine&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
Greenhouse$gas$emissions$reduction$of$40$percent$with$respect$to$1990$levels$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$
ETS$
Ukraine$will$participate$actively$in$the$development$of$existing$international$market$
mechanisms$and$implementation$of$new$ones$
$$
Mitigation$$
United&Arab&
Emirates&
(2)$Taxes$and$
ETS$
Tariff$reform:$authorities$$have$introduced$a$number$of$initiatives$and$policies,$and$
revised$the$country’s$tariffs$over$the$years$and$gradually$adjust$the$tariffs$for$
commercial$and$industrial$customers,$so$as$to$reflect$the$cost$of$generation$by$2021$
$
Mitigation$$
$
(3)$Subsidies$
Improving$energy$efficiency$by$increasing$the$share$of$clean$energy$in$the$energy$mix$to$
24$percent$by$2021$
$
Mitigation$$
&&
The$UAE$has$been$diversifying$its$sources$of$food$and$investing$in$agriculture$projects$
and$technologies$
YES$
Adaptation$
Viet&Nam&
(1)$General$
Commitment$
With$domestic$resources$reduction$of$GHG$emissions$by$8$percent$by$2030$compared$to$
the$business-as-usual$scenario$$
$$
$$
25$percent$GHG$emissions$reduction$by$2030$compared$to$the$business-as-usual$
scenario,$conditional$to$the$receipt$of$foreign$support$
$$
$$
(2)$Taxes$and$
ETS$
Vietnam$participates$in$Clean$Development$Mechanism$(CDM)$projects$and$trades$in$